Post Election Polls & Results: The Numbers Thread

[klusener]

yeah, it turns out Osama is the October surprise, but in a different way...

 

[Gokul43201]

Okay folks Fox has called AZ (10) for Bush...now it's officially over for Kerry.

 

[graphic7]

FL has also been called for Bush as of now.

 

[Gokul43201]

Kerry is rallying in Wisconsin and Ohio.

Right now, Kerry is down by about 130K votes in Ohio. Only about 50% of the votes in Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) have been counted, and Kerry has a lead of about 95K votes. Assuming the remaining 50% gives Kerry another 100K, he will be short by only 30K, if the rest of Ohio (some 10% of precincts) goies roughly down the middle.

 

[graphic7]

Interesting that CNN hasn't declared FL or AZ, yet. Maybe ABC jumped the gun.

 

[chroot]

Even if Kerry wins Ohio, does he still stand a chance?

- Warren

 

[graphic7]

If Kerry does win Ohio, he'll be in good shape. If he doesn't, however, he'll have to win every other state, including Alaska, Washington, Colorado, etc which is very unlikely. Keep in mind that CNN hasn't declared Florida yet and there's still 1.1 million provisional ballots floating around.

 

[graphic7]

Crap, CNN just declared Florida. Kerry has to win Ohio.

 

[Gokul43201]

If Kerry wins Ohio, he's virtually through...but the numbers in Ohio are looking worse than before. I'm going to stick with my earlier prediction that Bush takes Ohio...probably by about 50,000 votes.

The End(ish)

 

[Moonbear]

Yeah, they're now saying Bush is taking OH. 88% reporting and Bush is still in the lead. The only way Kerry can win is if he sweeps every last state remaining, and gets the House vote, and a few of those remaining states are only showing about 100 votes difference (and several thousand going to third party candidates)! I don't think he'll get all of them anyway, so it looks like pretty grim tonight.

Then again, in 2000, this is about the time I went to bed with Gore projected the winner and woke up to find FL had flipped from blue to red overnight, so I'm hoping something miraculous happens overnight, but won't be holding my breath.

All I can say is don't blame me if Bush makes a bigger mess of the country in the next four years, I voted Kerry.

And it's also looking like Congress is going to remain Republican controlled. That's even more painful...I was at the least hoping for a Democrat controlled Congress to keep Bush in check.

I'm heading to bed. This is so depressing.

 

[Gokul43201]

Final Score : B 286, K 252 (just a guess)

 

[Saint]

if kerry wins Ohio, is he likely to enter whitehouse?

 

[cragwolf]

I'm assuming that OH, NM and IA go to Bush, that seems likely. In that case, I got 3 states wrong: I thought MN, NH and WI would go to Bush. I did recognise prior to the election that MN and NH were my two wildcard predictions, the ones I had least confidence in. WI was very close, it almost went my way. So, in one sense, I'm happy with my predictive skills. In another sense, I'm not, because Bush has been reelected. In yet other sense, it doesn't really matter, because either way, we who are poor, weak and of low intelligence are under the boot of those who are rich, powerful and of high intelligence. Such is the way of the world.

 

[kat]

Highest popular vote...ever. Incredible.

 

[graphic7]

Highest popular vote...ever. Incredible.

Considering Kerry was 3 million votes shy he's also right behind Bush, shattering the Reagan popular vote count of '84, too.

 

[Gokul43201]

The Iowa Markets couldn't have been more wrong !

 

[russ_watters]

Considering Kerry was 3 million votes shy he's also right behind Bush, shattering the Reagan popular vote count of '84, too.

Quick question: what was the population of the US in 1984? # of registered voters?

You're rationalizing.

 

[Saint]

bush won
kerry lost

 

[cragwolf]

The Iowa Markets couldn't have been more wrong !

Actually, apart from the final 8 volatile hours, they were incredibly accurate. So were the betting markets. In fact, at least one of the betting markets (betfair) managed to correctly predict all of the swing states results (assuming that IA and NM go to Bush). A lot of punters were misled in the final 8 hours by the exit polls.

 

[Saint]

Dear Supporter,

Earlier today I spoke to President Bush, and offered him and Laura our congratulations on their victory. We had a good conversation, and we talked about the danger of division in our country and the need, the desperate need, for unity for finding the common ground, coming together. Today, I hope that we can begin the healing.

In America, it is vital that every vote counts, and that every vote be counted. But the outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process. I would not give up this fight if there was a chance that we would prevail. But it is now clear that even when all the provisional ballots are counted, which they will be, there won't be enough outstanding votes for our campaign to be able to win Ohio. And therefore, we cannot win this election.

It was a privilege and a gift to spend two years traveling this country, coming to know so many of you. I wish I could just wrap you in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart. Thank you.

To all of you, my volunteers and online supporters, all across this country who gave so much of themselves, thank you. Thanks to William Field, a six-year-old who collected $680, a quarter and a dollar at a time selling bracelets during the summer to help change America. Thanks to Michael Benson from Florida who I spied in a rope line holding a container of money. It turned out he raided his piggy bank and wanted to contribute. And thanks to Alana Wexler, who at 11 years old and started Kids for Kerry.

I thank all of you, who took time to travel, time off from work, and their own vacation time to work in states far and wide. You braved the hot days of summer and the cold days of the fall and the winter to knock on doors because you were determined to open the doors of opportunity to all Americans. You worked your hearts out, and I say, don't lose faith. What you did made a difference, and building on itself, we will go on to make a difference another day. I promise you, that time will come -- the election will come when your work and your ballots will change the world, and it's worth fighting for.

I'm proud of what we stood for in this campaign, and of what we accomplished. When we began, no one thought it was possible to even make this a close race, but we stood for real change, change that would make a real difference in the life of our nation, the lives of our families, and we defined that choice to America. I'll never forget the wonderful people who came to our rallies, who stood in our rope lines, who put their hopes in our hands, who invested in each and every one of us. I saw in them the truth that America is not only great, but it is good.

So here -- with a grateful heart, I leave this campaign with a prayer that has even greater meaning to me now that I've come to know our vast country so much better and that prayer is very simple: God bless America.

Thank you,

John Kerry

John Kerry

 

[Saint]

why bush can win?
why?
due to OSAMA ?

 

[selfAdjoint]

I think the deciding factor was gay marriage and the effort to remove "under God" from the pledge of allegiance. This scared the group of ordinary citizens who believe in cultural stability above all things to get out and vote. Kerry was beaten because every voter he added due to hatred of Bush was matched and more by a pro-Bush voter added by social concerns.

So many of the things that concerned us chatterers just went by the regular folks, not because they're dumb but because political debate bores them to death. They have better things to think about, like the World Series, and Fall fashions, and layoffs at work (not connected to politics in thei minds).

Deaths in Iraq? Too bad, "Gotta stay the course".
Bush's IQ? "He's a straight shooter".
Bush's Air National Guard record? "He turned his life around".

On the other hand, Kerry could never shake the anti-war, and anti-service man role he was identified with back in the 70s. The Republicans ensured that those memories stayed fresh (as they were quite entitled to do). The Democratic elite, nearly all old war protesters themselves, didn't realize that still today, that stuff plays real sour in the midlands.

And so on.

 

[Evo]

I think the deciding factor was gay marriage and the effort to remove "under God" from the pledge of allegiance. This scared the group of ordinary citizens who believe in cultural stability above all things to get out and vote. Kerry was beaten because every voter he added due to hatred of Bush was matched and more by a pro-Bush voter added by social concerns.

So many of the things that concerned us chatterers just went by the regular folks, not because they're dumb but because political debate bores them to death. They have better things to think about, like the World Series, and Fall fashions, and layoffs at work (not connected to politics in thei minds).

Deaths in Iraq? Too bad, "Gotta stay the course".
Bush's IQ? "He's a straight shooter".
Bush's Air National Guard record? "He turned his life around".

On the other hand, Kerry could never shake the anti-war, and anti-service man role he was identified with back in the 70s. The Republicans ensured that those memories stayed fresh (as they were quite entitled to do). The Democratic elite, nearly all old war protesters themselves, didn't realize that still today, that stuff plays real sour in the midlands.

And so on.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

 

[russ_watters]

On the other hand, Kerry could never shake the anti-war, and anti-service man role he was identified with back in the 70s... The Democratic elite, nearly all old war protesters themselves, didn't realize that still today, that stuff plays real sour in the midlands.

I agree with your analysis, but want to highlight this. As I have said, I consider that Kerry's biggest miscalculation. It was a mistake to make it the centerpiece of the convention, and a mistake to not distance himself from...well...himself once the SBV thing came out. And he also missed the point of the SBV thing: no one cared about his purple hearts - that was just an excuse to keep Vietnam on the front-burner.

 

[Gokul43201]

It was a mistake to make it [his Vietnam service] the centerpiece of the convention, and a mistake to not distance himself from...well...himself once the SBV thing came out. And he also missed the point of the SBV thing: no one cared about his purple hearts - that was just an excuse to keep Vietnam on the front-burner.

Guess how many times Kerry mentioned his Purple Hearts during the Convention ?

As for talking about his Vietnam service during the convention...here are the excerpts of his speech that are (in any way) related to his service.

And in this journey, I am accompanied by an extraordinary band of brothers led by that American hero, a patriot named Max Cleland. Our band of brothers doesn't march together because of who we are as veterans, but because of what we learned as soldiers. We fought for this nation because we loved it and we came back with the deep belief that every day is extra. We may be a little older now, we may be a little grayer, but we still know how to fight for our country.
...
I know what kids go through when they are carrying an M-16 in a dangerous place and they can't tell friend from foe. I know what they go through when they're out on patrol at night and they don't know what's coming around the next bend. I know what it's like to write letters home telling your family that everything's all right when you're not sure that's true.
...
I defended this country as a young man and I will defend it as President.
...
You see that flag up there. We call her Old Glory. The stars and stripes forever. I fought under that flag, as did so many of you here and all across our country. That flag flew from the gun turret right behind my head. It was shot through and through and tattered, but it never ceased to wave in the wind. It draped the caskets of men I served with and friends I grew up with. For us, that flag is the most powerful symbol of who we are and what we believe in. Our strength. Our diversity. Our love of country. All that makes America both great and good.

Less than 2 minutes of the 50 minute speech was devoted to talking about his service.

 

[Saint]

So, americans will expect more Terrorists attacks, more death toll in Iraq, more joblessness, more taxes, more insecurity ?

 

[Gokul43201]

No, except for the death toll.

What's your point ?

 

[Saint]

what is bush's plan to Solve the problem of iraq?
how long your army will be there?
till you get all their oil ?

 

[chroot]

This is off-topic, Saint. Again. If you'd like me to split it to a new thread, let me know.

- Warren

 

[Saint]

America can never be World Police,
if you interfere with people's domestic affair more,
you will get more retaliation.

Don't try to split Taiwan from China,
if you continue to sell Taiwan weapon,
China will fight back with stealing more jobs from america.
Don't always critisize china's human right record,
take a look of your own policy on the black people, are they treated fairly?

Imperialism is not fit for all people, China has its own policy, culture, value etc.
Try to understand Islam first before calling people terrorists.

Osama is not dead, he is watching you!

 

[Gokul43201]

Saint, if you want to rant, start your own thread. (I say this knowing it will be ignored)



I've come across a strartling statistic (calling it a statistic is a stretch, I've only got 5 data points out of thousands), and call me cynical, or a sore loser, or whatever, but :

In Columbus, Ohio, the number of polling machines per polling place seems to vary directly with the distance to campus or inner city neighborhoods.

My advisor's polling place (in a largely red precinct) had 10 polling machines. The queue never extended outside the building.

Near campus, polling places had 6, 6 and 5 machines in 3 different places. Lines often stretched around the block.

One downtown location had only 3 machines, and this place had to stay open beyond closing time.

Now I'm curious about the number of polling machines per voter at different polling places in medium/large cities...

Anyone else have numbers for me ?

 

[russ_watters]

Guess how many times Kerry mentioned his Purple Hearts during the Convention ?

You missed my point. The SBV brought up the purple heart thing because it was something to argue about. But to people who cared about the issue (me), it wasn't the purple hearts that mattered, it was what he did after the war. Kerry didn't realize that and focused his rebuttal on the medals issue. In fairness though, there wasn't much Kerry could have done to convince me he'd changed from the man he was shortly after Vietnam (and indeed, he may well be proud of that).

As for talking about his Vietnam service during the convention...here are the excerpts of his speech that are (in any way) related to his service.

His speech was a long speech. He had a lot to talk about. But his first words were "Reporting for duty" and behind him was a 10 foot photo of him in his uniform (which was there for most of the convention). His service was also mentioned by pretty much everyone else who spoke, and made-up a significant portion of his biography on his site.

His Vietnam service was an important issue and he knew it - he just didn't understand why. He thought it would give him credibility as a military leader (something democrats typically lack), but what he should have known is that the very people he would lead considered it to be a slap in the face.

Now I'm curious about the number of polling machines per voter at different polling places in medium/large cities.

I assume there are state laws regarding registered voters per machine, but I don't know -- interesting question though.

I've got some responses for Saint too, but they're OT, so...no.