Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

HARD RADIATION STORM: A powerful explosion on the sun today (June 8, 2024) peppered Earth and nearby spacecraft with "hard" protons. The radiation storm fogged satellite cameras for hours. Following close behind, a CME is heading for Earth, and its arrival on June 10th could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms.

Above: Today's M9.7-class solar flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory

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[Astronuc]

Sunspot AR3697 has made headlines again just before it makes another exit. The sunspot region, formerly known as AR3664, produced the historic geomagnetic storm that led to May's global auroras.

On Saturday (June 8), the sunspot fired off a M9.7-class solar flare, the second strongest type on the classification scale. The flare was powerful enough that it produced the strongest radiation storm since 2017, according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). These types of events can pose a risk of impact to space launch operations and satellites, and can also disrupt shortwave radio signals.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...ongest-radiation-storm-since-2017/ar-BB1nYl0E

There should be some activity tonight.

On Monday (June 10), Region 3697 fired off an even stronger solar flare, a X1.5-class at 7:08 a.m. EST (1108 GMT). Parts of Earth's sunlit side could experience temporary or complete loss of high frequency (HF) radio signals. According to the SWPC forecast, solar activity is expected to be at minor to moderate levels the next few days as Region 3697 rotates out of sight.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"INEFFECTIVE CME IMPACT: As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on June 10th (1725 UT). However, the weak impact was ineffective; it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME was hurled into space by an M9.7-class flare from sunspot AR3664/3697 on June 8th."

[The said sunspot, as already mentioned in the previous post above, is departing once again ...- see below]

"Solar wind
speed: 437.3 km/sec
density: 3.64 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0821 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 0443 UT Jun11
24-hr: X1 1108 UT Jun10
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0825 UT

Daily Sun: 11 Jun 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3709 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"


"Current Auroral Oval (for the American continent):

Credit: NOAA/Ovation


Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4.00 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4.33 unsettled
explanation | more data "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

THE MAY 10TH SUPERSTORM ELECTRIFIED EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE: The geomagnetic superstorm of May 10, 2024, did more than spark widespread auroras. New data show that it also electrified Earth's atmosphere. Fair weather electric fields jumped as much as 15% for four days after the storm.

Above: These data show how fair weather electric fields increased for 4 days after the onset of the May 10th superstorm. Credit: Prof. Gang Li, UAH

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[Stavros Kiri]

GREEN GHOSTS IN A GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Last week, a photographer in South Dakota caught Green Ghosts in a geomagnetic storm. Green Ghosts are a relatively new discovery. They appear when sprites shoot into the atmosphere above strong thunderstorms. This may be the first time the mysterious ghosts have been photographed surrounded by auroras.

Above: Red sprites, Green Ghosts, and auroras over South Dakota on June 27th. Credit: Tom Warner.

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[Astronuc]

Sun news July 23: An X14 flare on sun’s far side this morning?​

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Today’s top story: Something big and powerful is causing a ruckus on the sun’s far side. Around 0 UTC this morning (July 23), a large farside eruption caused a huge halo CME (see the image above). That’s when a coronal mass ejection (CME) is situated on the sun so that an expanding cloud of an cloud of solar material and magnetic fields looms larger and larger, forming a “halo” around our star as seen from Earth. And experts are now estimating that this particular event might have started with an X14 flare! Halo CMEs often mean there’s a CME headed toward Earth. This CME is not headed our way, but, if it had been, it night have caused a dazzling (and perhaps scary) geomagnetic event, such as the one of October 28, 2003.

Last 24 hours: In the past day, solar activity has been moderate, with one M flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, we saw solar activity on the sun’s near side reduce from 31 flares yesterday to nine flares today: an M flare and eight C flares. The largest flare was an M1.5 on July 22 at 13 UTC from AR3744. An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa. Following this M flare, another flare that narrowly missed becoming an M (C9.0) came from AR3762 at 15:26 UTC on July 22. The lead flare producer of the period was sunspot region AR3762 with three flares. Today the sun has two active regions showing a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity: AR3751 and AR3762. Sunspot AR3761 kept its magnetic complexity at a beta-gamma level. The southwest quadrant has the two largest sunspot regions in size. The remaining regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic complexity. The sun has nine numbered active regions.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 60%. The chance for X flares is 15%.
Next expected CME: Yesterday’s (late July 21) dark spray from a filament eruption created a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that is expected to reach Earth on July 24. No new Earth-directed CMEs were in the available imagery.

I was looking for more information on the July 21 CME.
https://www.earth.com/news/geomagnetic-storm-warning-issued-astronauts-auroras/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Two plumes of dark plasma flew away from the sun yesterday, launching a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. NOAA forecast models suggest the halo CME will strike our planet during the early UT hours of July 24th, sparking a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Photographers in northern-tier US States may be able to catch auroras after the CME arrives.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

MAJOR FARSIDE SOLAR FLARE: Europe's Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft just detected the most intense solar flare of the current solar cycle. The X14-category explosion sprayed energetic particles throughout the solar system, causing high dose rates on Mars and even hitting Earth on the opposite side of the sun. The source of the flare could turn to face our planet late next week.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Sun July 28, 2024

CANNIBAL CME ALERT: Multiple CMEs are heading toward Earth following a series of strong M-class solar flares this weekend. Two of the CMEs may be merging to form a potent Cannibal CME. The action begins on July 30th and 31st when the CMEs are expected to arrive, possibly sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms.

Above: A series of strong M-class explosions on July 27-28 coming primarily from active sunspot complex AR3765-67

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[Stavros Kiri]

Mon. July 29, 2024

"SOLAR ACTIVITY IS HIGH: Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong flares--and they're getting stronger. An impulsive X1.5 flare this morning at 0237 UT caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over Japan, southeast Asia and Australia (map). More X-flares are in the offing as the sunspot complex turns directly toward Earth later today."

"Daily Sun: 29 Jul 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong almost X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI" .

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wed. July 31, 2024

1. "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Multiple CMEs are heading for Earth. They could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms when they arrive on July 31st and August 1st. During such storms, naked-eye auroras may be seen in northern-tier US states and central Europe."

2. "CANNIBAL CME SPARKS PHOTOGRAPHIC AURORAS: A Cannibal CME struck Earth's magnetic field on July 30th at 0027 UT. The impact sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with photographic auroras as far south as Arizona:

"The auroras were not visible to the naked eye, but my camera was able to capture these faint red pillars from the south rim of the Grand Canyon," says photographer David Blanchard.

Auroras so faint they're visible only to cameras are not what we expected from a potent Cannibal CME. What happened? Inside this Cannibal CME, magnetic fields fields were pointing in the wrong direction; they did not connect well to Earth's magnetosphere. As a result, the storm was minor (G1) instead of strong (G3)."

3. Solar wind is already elevated ... :

" Solar wind
speed: 481.1 km/sec
density: 1.25 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0447 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M6 1305 UT Jul31
24-hr: M9 1938 UT Jul30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1650 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Jul 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

New sunspot AR3772 has an unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI " .

4. Supplement for 2. :
"more images: from Aaron Watson in the West Elk Mountains of Colorado; from Alan Dyer near Gleichen, Alberta; from Carl Bernhardt in the Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona; from Chris Almquist of Ely, MN; from Jake Stehli of Winona, Minnesota".

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1) July 2, 2024

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The monthly sunspot number just hit a 23-year high. The last time sunspots were this numerous, the sun was on the verge of unleashing the Great Halloween Storms, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Above: Above: A composite image of sunspots in July 2024. credit: Senol Sanli

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2) July 4, 2024

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A close encounter with a CME on Aug. 4th sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. So far, auroras have been sighted as far south as latitude +39N in Colorado. If the storm persists (it might not), mid-latitude auroras may be visible in the USA and Europe during the night of Aug. 4-5.

Above: Auroras sighted in Colorado just before local sunrise on Aug. 4, 2024. Credit: Aaron Watson

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[Stavros Kiri]

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM Now: Strong geomagnetic storms are underway on Aug. 12th in response to multiple CME impacts. So far, Northern Lights have been sighted as far south as Texas, California and Mississippi. The storm shows no immediate sign of abating, and it could continue into the night of Aug. 12-13.

Above: Auroras and STEVE over the Otago Peninsula in New Zealand on Aug. 12th. Photo credit: Ian Griffin

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[Stavros Kiri]

LAST WEEK'S SURPRISE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: On Aug. 28th, a geomagnetic storm surprised forecasters with auroras in Europe and more than a dozen US states including Colorado and California. What happened? Earth got caught in a CME's tail.

Above: Auroras over southern Sweden on Aug. 28, 2024. Photo credit: Malin Englund

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[Stavros Kiri]

(3 days ago, i.e. September 4th)

The Highest Sunspot Number in 23 Years

SUNSPOT NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE: Last month, the average sunspot number exceeded 200 for the first time in 23 years, significantly exceeding official forecasts. The surge could be a harbinger of strong solar activity for years to come. It's also great news for sky watchers as we enter the equinox aurora season.

Above: Average sunspot numbers reached a 23 year high in Aug. 2024

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[Tom.G]

The only thing that comes to mind is: "See Spot run" for a new record.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/ssngraphics

Sun news September 8: A dark filament eruption​

Happy Sun Day! For many, today is a day for relaxing and stepping into some downtime. The sun is taking this seriously. The flaring size and rate is low. We also have no new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). But the filament eruption yesterday – associated with an M flare and region AR3813/15 – might give Earth a glancing blow on September 11. NASA models say yes on this possibility, but NOAA models say no (see below). We will have to wait and see. The most exciting action today is from a nice, dark filament eruption. The eruption comes from just northwest of disk center. We can see a bright ribbon on the sun after the filament launches. As the filament flys away from the sun it looks like a shadow moving away. It is dark because the material is cooler than the sun behind it. We on’t yet know if any of the sun stuff will head our way. Stay tuned!
Last 24 hours: It is a day of low activity, with only C flares. During our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), our star produced nine C flares. This is a reduction in flaring rate in contrast with the last several days. There’s no longer any region on the Earth-facing sun now with a delta magnetic complexity, indicative of strong flare potential. Regions AR3806, AR3811, AR3813, and AR3815 have beta-gamma magnetic complexity. All these regions have an increased potential for producing M or X flares, but not as much so as a beta-gamma-delta region. The sun now has eight sunspot regions on its Earth-facing disk, including two newcomers, AR3818 and AR3819.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 55%. The chance for X flares is 15%.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

 

[Vanadium 50]

I was listening to WWVH (Hawaii) on a station in Australia. At 5 MHz. Wow.,

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Sept. 12, 2024

CME IMPACT SPARKS WIDESPREAD RED AURORAS: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field today, sparking a strong geomagnetic storm with red auroras in the United States as far south as California. Two more CMEs are coming, which means a repeat display is possible this weekend.

Above: Auroras over the Owens Valley Radio Observatory near Big Pine, California, on Sept. 12, 2024. Photo credit: Ross Stone

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[Stavros Kiri]

1) Sept. 14, 2024

SIGNIFICANT X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: An explosive sunspot (AR3825) is turning toward Earth. Earlier today [Sept. 14], it produced a very strong X4.5-class solar flare with a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. A CME is now emerging from the blast site, and it might have an Earth-directed component.

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from today's X4.5-class solar flare. Credit: NASA/SDO

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2) Today, Sept. 17, 2024
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND PARTIAL LUNAR ECLIPSE: A CME hit Earth last night, sparking a severe geomagnetic storm. Auroras were reported in the USA as far south as the panhandle of Texas. A different kind of sky show will happen tonight: A partial eclipse of the "super" Harvest Moon.

Above: A drone's view of the auroras over Mackinaw city, Michigan, on Sept. 16, 2024. Credit: MaryBeth Kiczenski

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[Stavros Kiri]

X7-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: An Earth-facing sunspot exploded on Oct 1st (2220 UT), producing the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The X7.1-category blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over Hawaii and hurled a CME into space. The CME could reach Earth and cause geomagnetic storms later this week.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Monster X-class flare launches massive solar storm towards Earth – and could trigger auroras this weekend ! ...

(NASA/SDO)

The sun just unleashed one of its largest solar explosions in recent years, temporarily causing a radio blackout on Earth and spitting out a coronal mass ejection that will likely collide with our planet this weekend.

In fact it was the Strongest Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 25.
 More specific:
THE STRONGEST FLARE YET: Sunspot AR3842 exploded again today, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. The X9-category blast hurled a CME directly toward Earth. This makes two CMEs now en route to our planet. The forecast calls for auroras this weekend.

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from today's X9-class solar flare. Credit: NASA/SDO

So stay alert, at least for auroras etc. . It might be interesting ...

 

[Astronuc]

THE STRONGEST FLARE YET: Sunspot AR3842 exploded again today, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. The X9-category blast hurled a CME directly toward Earth. This makes two CMEs now en route to our planet. The forecast calls for auroras this weekend.

SpaceWeatherLive.com reports< "Sunspot region 3842 is on fire! This region is in a perfect earth-facing position and today produced the strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle! It was an X9.05 solar flare (R3-strong) that peaked at 12:18 UTC. This is in fact the strongest solar flare in 7 years. The last time we had solar flares bigger than this one was back in 2017! Yes that is the previous Solar Cycle!"

NASA's article - https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14701 - X9.0 flare. Lots of pictures.

Various news agencies remark that it is the largest flare since 2017. My wife read that it was the 15th largest recorded.

LiveScience reports the X8.7 magnitude blast in May, and during September 2017, "the sun emitted an X11.8 and X13.3 flare within a few days of each other."
NASA's Earth Observatory reports, "At 4:51 p.m. EDT, on Monday, April 2, 2001, the sun unleashed the biggest solar flare ever recorded, as observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite. The flare was definitely more powerful than the famous solar flare on March 6, 1989, which was related to the disruption of power grids in Canada. This recent explosion from the active region near the sun's northwest limb hurled a coronal mass ejection into space at a whopping speed of roughly 7.2million kilometers per hour. Luckily, the flare was not aimed directly towards Earth."
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1331/biggest-solar-flare-on-record

Monday's solar flare produced an R4 radio blackout on the sunlit side of the Earth. An R4 blackout, rated by the NOAA SEC, is second to the most severe R5 classification. The classification measures the disruption in radio communications. X-ray and ultraviolet light from the flare changed the structure of the Earth's electrically charged upper atmosphere(ionosphere). This affected radio communication frequencies that either pass through the ionosphere to satellites or are reflected by it to traverse the globe.

I've noticed last month disruptions with the car radio reception, usually coincident reported solar flares.

ESA reports "The biggest solar X-ray flare ever is classified as X28". The event occurred on 4 Nov 2003.
https://www.esa.int/Science_Explora...t_solar_X-ray_flare_ever_is_classified_as_X28

On Tuesday, 4 November 2003, this flare saturated the X-ray detectors on several monitoring satellites. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) came out of the Sun's surface at about 2300 kilometres per second (8.2 million km/h). Only part of the CME is directed towards Earth,

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS THIS WEEKEND: As many as three CMEs are heading for Earth. The most potent is expected to arrive during the late hours of Oct. 5th, potentially sparking a strong geomagnetic storm. Mid-latitude auroras are possible this weekend in Europe and the USA.

Above: A NOAA forecast model shows three CMEs hitting or grazing Earth between Oct. 4th and 7th.

The middle one arriving probably tonight &/or tomorrow [i.e. Sat Oct. 5th &/or Sun Oct. 6th] is due to the X9.05 Solar Flare on Th. Oct. 3rd. The first one that was due Fri Oct. 4 (i.e. yesterday) was due to the X7.1 flare on Tue Oct. 1st, while the latest CME after those was due to a newest M-class flare, yesterday (Oct. 4) ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1) Oct. 7 & prior:

a)
SOLAR STORM SPARKS DEEP SOUTH AURORAS: A CME hit Earth on Oct. 6th, sparking auroras in more than twenty US states. Northern Lights were seen or photographed as far south as Kentucky, the Carolinas and Mississippi.

​

​ Above: Auroras on Oct. 6, 2024. Photo credit: Christian Begeman of Chester, SD

The storm originally was expected/predicted to be G3. However, the actual one was less strong, but still good enough for auroras etc. (for more see b) & c) below ...).

b)
"CME IMPACT SPARKS AURORAS IN THE USA: As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Oct 6th. At first, it seemed like a dud. Nothing happened for hours. Then, auroras spread across more than twenty US states. "We were at the Chatham Lighthouse in Cape Cod, when the sky behind us lit up red!," reports Ray Majoran. "My friend Tom, yelled 'Northern Lights!' and we took this picture."

"They lasted brightly for about 5-10 minutes and then faded back," he says. "What a great sight to see in Cape Cod."

Auroras were also seen or photographed in both Dakotas, Illinois, Missouri, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Washington, Kansas, Virginia, Minnesota, Idaho, New York, California, Maine, Vermont, Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio, Alaska, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

The CME was hurled toward Earth by a powerful X9.1-class solar flare on Oct. 3rd. Considering the size of the flare, the CME did not deliver much of a blow. The forecast was rescued by the autumnal "Russell-McPherron effect." At this time of year, even weak CMEs can cause a geomagnetic storm. G1- and G2-storm conditions were observed for nearly 12 hours."

c) For [extra] related and connected phenomena to that period as well as to Oct. 8, see 3) below (especially the first part for more auroras etc., but the rest parts too for more issues etc.) ...


2) Oct 7 - NEW X-CLASS FLARE

"ANOTHER X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Active sunspot AR3842 erupted again on Oct. 7th (1913 UTC), producing an X2-class solar flare (movie). Extreme UV radiation caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas, and a significant CME was hurled into space. It probably has an Earth-directed component. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs."


3) Today, Tue Oct. 8, 2024

A)
"AURORAS IN ARIZONA: Last night, Oct. 7-8, auroras spread across more than thirty US states. The lowest latitude sighting (so far) was in the deserts of southern Arizona:

"Solar Max keeps gifting the desert southwest with auroras," says photographer Scott Tucker of Tucson, AZ. "They were faint, but we will take them! This is a 10 second exposure with my Canon 80D."

Other notable mid- to low-latitude sightings include Virginia, California, Oregon, New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee and (faintly) Alabama.

This widespread display is the afterglow of a CME impact on Oct. 6th. Remarkably, it's not over yet. Solar wind conditions favor another night of geomagnetic storming on Oct. 8th."

B)
a) "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor (G1) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storms are possible today [Oct. 8] as Earth passes through the tail of a CME that struck our planet on Oct. 6th. Magnetic fields in the CME's tail are connecting to Earth's magnetic field, opening the door for solar wind to enter our planet's magnetosphere. If this continues, mid-latitude auroras may be visible for the third night in a row."

b)
"THIS CME WILL HIT EARTH AND A COMET: Active sunspot AR3842 erupted again on Oct. 7th (1913 UTC), producing an X2-class solar flare (movie). The explosion hurled a significant CME into space. This SOHO coronagraph movie shows the CME and Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, which is passing between Earth and the sun today:

The CME is going to hit both the comet and Earth, in that order. The CME will strike the comet later today or perhaps early on Oct. 9th, The impact could actually rip off the comet's tail. The same thing happened to Comet Enke in April 2007. A broken tail is something astronomers should look for when Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS emerges from the sun's glare later this week.

According to a NASA model, the CME will graze Earth late on Oct. 9th or early on Oct. 10th. The impact could cause another strong geomagnetic storm with auroras at mid-latitudes in the USA and Europe. NOAA analysts are looking at this CME now and may soon issue a refined forecast."


------------------------
Suppl. : 1) Oct. 7 :
Planetary K-index
24-hr max: Kp= 6.33 storm
2) Today, Oct. 8 :
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5.67 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 7.33 storm
explanation | more data
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[Stavros Kiri]

1) News for Oct 8 & 9:

a)
SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: An X-class solar flare on Oct. 8th (for US time/early Oct. 9th in UT & Europe time) hurled a fast-moving CME directly toward Earth [in fact it was an X1.8-class flare on 0156 UT, Oct 9th ...]. NOAA and NASA models agree that it could arrive as early as Oct. 10th, with NOAA forecasters warning of a possibly severe geomagnetic storm.

​

​ Above: This SOHO coronagraph image shows the approaching CME along with Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, which will be hit by the CME later today (Oct. 9).

b) (more detailed description etc. - Wed Oct. 9, 2024)
"SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: A geomagnetic storm (G1-G3) that sparked auroras as far south as Arizona and Texas on Oct. 7th and 8th is finally over. If you missed the show, good news: More auroras are in the offing. The sun just launched another CME directly toward Earth, and it could cause a severe G4-class storm when it arrives on Oct. 10th. Keep reading... (...)

POWERFUL X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR3848 was directly facing Earth this morning, Oct. 9th (0156 UTC), when it unleashed a powerful X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

This explosion lasted more than five hours, long enough to lift a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. SOHO coronagraphs have since detected a bright, fast-moving CME heading directly toward Earth. NOAA and NASA models agree that the CME will strike our planet late on Oct. 10th. NOAA forecasters say that a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is possible when the CME arrives.

This movie from SOHO is quite remarkable. It shows not only the CME, but also Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS passing close to the sun:

The CME will hit the comet before it hits Earth, probably later today. The impact could rip off the comet's tail. The same thing happened to Comet Encke in April 2007. A bent or broken tail is something astronomers should look for when Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS emerges from the sun's glare this weekend."


2) Th Oct. 10:

a) "PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: A strong (S3-class) solar radiation storm is underway today. In plain language, this means protons are raining down on Earth. The energetic particles are being accelerated toward our planet by the incoming CME described below. Passengers and crew onboard international flights over the poles may receive an elevated dose of radiation while this storm is in progress. (...)

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storms are possible on Oct. 10th and 11th when a potent fast-moving CME is expected to hit our planet's magnetic field. SOHO coronagraphs show the storm cloud heading straight for Earth:

Above: A halo CME and Tsuchinshan-ATLAS on Oct. 9th: labels.​

NOAA and NASA models agree that the CME will strike our planet late on Oct. 10th. The impact could spark up to 12 hours of severe storming with naked-eye auroras visible in many US states and European countries. NOAA's detailed forecast has the storm crossing the boundary from Oct. 10th to Oct. 11th, involving both calendar dates.

Please note that auroras are not guaranteed. Sometimes even powerful CMEs fail to light up the night sky. It all depends on whether the CME connects magnetically to Earth. A strong connection can cause a great light show; a weak connection does the opposite. Fingers crossed for strong connections!"

b) Furthermore, a new (2nd) X1-class flare happened later on Oct. 9 (1547 UT) ..., still perhaps awaiting for further or full assessment today on Oct. 10.

 

[berkeman]

Yeah, we may be able to see some aurora action tonight here in the San Francisco Bay Area. We are supposed to get aurora over the next 2 nights, but only tonight will be clear skies.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Yeah, we may be able to see some aurora action tonight here in the San Francisco Bay Area. We are supposed to get aurora over the next 2 nights, but only tonight will be clear skies.

Sounds great! I sure hope so! Enjoy ...
---------------------------

(& right on time ...)
"THE CME HAS ARRIVED: The CME launched by Tuesday's X-flare has just reached Earth. It appears to be as potent as advertised. Solar wind speeds have jumped up to 800 km/s, and a crack is opening in Earth's magnetic field. This is setting the stage for G3 to G4-class geomagnetic storms later today."

Here's a look at some of the Solar Wind, Flare Activity & Sunspot Groups etc. data, right now, as we speak:

"Solar wind
speed: 744.3 km/sec
density: 5.70 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0320 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1200 UT Oct10
24-hr: X1 1547 UT Oct09
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1525 UT

Daily Sun: 10 Oct 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3848 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. This sunspot is directly facing Earth. Credit: SDO/HMI".

 

[russ_watters]

Visible in PA! I wasn't going to bother but saw a friend post a pic!

 

[berkeman]

Yeah, we may be able to see some aurora action tonight here in the San Francisco Bay Area. We are supposed to get aurora over the next 2 nights, but only tonight will be clear skies.

Pfftt. Clear skies, black, black, black. Where are the pretty lights?!

 

[davenn]

Current predictions of auroral oval for Canada and USA (at time of writing this)

And for Australia and NZ where darkness is only a few hours away ......

Planetary K index, Kp, has currently dropped from 8+ to 7.67and now storm conditions rather than severe storm.

cheers
Dave

 

[russ_watters]

Visible in PA! I wasn't going to bother but saw a friend post a pic!

Shame on me for not watching this thread. I just caught the tail end of it and got some ok pics, but missed out on the really good show.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Pfftt. Clear skies, black, black, black. Where are the pretty lights?!

Sorry to hear that. Probably bad timing due to combination of time zone & exact location & time of events ... . No luck in my location either.

Here are some photos from UK posted here on PF by @pinball1970 :
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/our-beautiful-universe-photos-and-videos.800540/post-7124928

The storm reached a max G-4 level.
Auroras have been observed in Virginia, Washington DC, France, Denmark, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, Hungary, England, and Scotland. And India!!

+
"RARELOW LATITUDE AURORAS: Northern Lights in Mexico? Believe it. On the night of Oct. 10-11, auroras descended all the way to the tropics. René Saade photographed the display from the beach at Mazatlan, Sinaloa:

"We are at 23 degrees north latitude," says Saade. "We also saw auroras during the May 10th superstorm. Seeing auroras this far south twice in a year is amazing!!"

Another notable low-latitude sighting comes from Priscilla Coote in Key West (+24.7 N). "How often do you see auroras and coconut palms in the same photo?" she wonders. Also, the Sociedad de Astronomía del Caribe is reporting auroras photographed from Toa Baja, Puerto Rico (+18.4 N), and from a cruiseship just south of Cuba (~21 N).

These remarkably low latitude sightings highlight the rarity of the Oct. 10-11, 2024, geomagnetic storm. Such a display has occured only a handful of times in the 21st century. Fantastic pictures are pouring into our gallery from around the world. Take a look!

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery​

(...)"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Solar Max has Arrived: It's official. NASA and NOAA announced this week that Solar Maximum has arrived. This kicks off a period of high solar activity which could persist for another 1 to 2 years.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A)
Big Sunspots and an X-Flare: A big group of new sunspots exploded this morning (Oct. 24, 0357UT), producing an X3.3-class solar flare and an impressive CME. The CME will graze Earth on Oct. 26th, possibly causing a geomagnetic storm. More flares are in the offing as the sunspot group turns toward Earth.
The flare caused a shortwave radio blackout for frequencies below 30MHz ( shortwave radio blackout over Australia and Southeast Asia ...), that lasted for about an hour, as the flare was a slow and lasting one.
Latest models show that the produced CME will probably miss earth for the most part, but an earth-directed component could cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm when it arrives, around Oct. 26th ...

​

​ Above: A phalanx of active sunspots is turning toward Earth.

Reminding again that we're already within Solar Max (see previous post) ...

B)
"A BIG DEVELOPMENT IN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING: Imagine a giant CME heading straight for Earth, but no one knew it was coming. Space weather forecasters have long worried about such a scenario. Our best early warning system for CMEs is a coronagraph onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), which was launched in Dec. 1995. How long can such an ancient spacecraft be expected to last?

We can stop worrying. Yesterday {[or actually Oct. 22]}, NOAA unveiled its replacement, the CCOR-1 solar coronagraph onboard the new GOES-19 satellite:

Using an occulting disk (the dark blue circle at the center of the video) to block the glare of the sun, CCOR-1 delivers uninterrupted monitoring of CMEs with a new image every 15 minutes. GOES-19 is currently undergoing post-launch testing and checkout of its instruments, including the coronagraph. In spring 2025, NOAA will begin using CCOR-1 for regular CME forecasts.

SOHO, meanwhile, will continue monitoring the sun as it has done for almost 30 years. This incredible spacecraft has discovered more than 5000 sungrazing comets and helped forecasters predict hundreds of strong geomagnetic storms. Long may it live! "