Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

Lol, oops. Thanks.

No, you were originally right! ... (see previous post just above ...)
["Limb(rim) - to Limb" motion/rotation takes just a bit less than 2weeks ... – and even right on the Limb, an erruption (e.g. flare) or a CME can have a Geo-effective component ... – plus see that there are other ways to expect auroras from (as said earlier above on post #277 ), that's why official & valid forecasts are important & useful ...]
@russ_watters , @Tom.G

 

[russ_watters]

No, you were originally right! ... (see previous post just above ...)
["Limb(rim) - to Limb" motion/rotation takes just a bit less than 2weeks ... – and even right on the Limb, an erruption (e.g. flare) or a CME can have a Geo-effective component ... – plus see that there are other ways to expect auroras from (as said earlier above on post #277 ), that's why official & valid forecasts are important & useful ...]
@russ_watters , @Tom.G

No, I meant from the limb to the center (pointed at Earth), which is 1/4 of a rotation not 1/2 of a rotation. 7 days, not 14.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

No, I meant from the limb to the center (pointed at Earth), which is 1/4 of a rotation not 1/2 of a rotation. 7 days, not 14.

In this case ok, but you never mentioned "center". Besides, the center is ~irrelevant. 'pointed at earth' doesn't necessarilly mean 'center' ... . "Facing Earth" (e.g. for a spot group) means being on the front side of the Sun (Limb to Limb). The reason is that you never know 'what angle' the "shots" will be fired ... (simple geometry - e.g. see "live" photos of active flares or CMEs [there are a few on this thread etc. ...] - sometimes they don't go straight, etc. ...) ... . [And] As already explained, there are many cases where you get geo-effective components and especially caused auroras ... [as well as (related to) other phenomena too], not only sunspot groups related ..., etc. (see previous posts). {["Directly facing Earth" is a more special case, of course - see right below ...]}

Of course that doesn't mean that you're not partially right (making a point - I get your point - it makes sense too - you mean "Directly Facing Earth" ...) that at the center you get higher chances ... [of 'direct hit' ... – which may not always be a good thing ... - risky too ...] [...] (if we're "lucky" in timing, of course ..., e.g. to happen to get e.g. a flare right then ...). But then again, we get auroras "~all the time" and for multiple/many reasons ... . So, if/when you go to Alaska, I hope you get that lucky too ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Or about 1 week from when it appears on the rim.

Oh, you mean to get to 90° for 'Directly Facing Earth' ... – in that case ok. {(But see also previous posts etc. ...) [--->e.g., in any case, e.g. flares can be fired at "any angle" (simple geometry) ..., to point at/to Earth, or at least to have a "geo-effective component" ... etc. ]}

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A CME is Heading for Earth - Geomagnetic Storms Possible Tomorrow:

A CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: Yesterday, a magnetic filament on the sun erupted, hurling a CME almost directly toward Earth. Forecast models say it should arrive during the late hours of Jan. 22nd, sparking minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms with auroras in northern Europe and northern-tier US states.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR RADIATION STORM: A Solar Radiation Storm is in Progress (Jan.29&30 etc.). Energetic protons from the sun are striking the top of Earth's atmosphere today following a strong solar flare during the early hours of Jan. 29th. This is called a "radiation storm," and it is currently a category S2 event. Such a storm can cause elevated levels of radiation in airplanes flying over Earth's poles and unwanted glitches in the electronics of Earth-orbiting satellites.

Latest Update (Jan 30):
"THE RADIATION STORM IS SUBSIDING: Yesterday's solar radiation storm is subsiding. It is now a minor S1-class event, which poses no threat to astronauts or air travelers. Only Earth's polar regions are feeling a lingering effect of the storm. Shortwave radio transmissions inside the Arctic and Antarctic Circles are still being absorbed. (...)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): A coronal mass ejection (CME) might graze Earth this week. It left the sun yesterday following a strong solar flare (M6.8-class) from departing sunspot AR3559.

Above: A SOHO coronagraph movie of the partial halo CME, which might graze Earth​

A NASA model of the CME suggests it will graze Earth during the early hours of Jan. 31st. Such an impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras at high latitudes.

Note: All those speckles in the SOHO coronagraph animation, above, are solar protons striking the spacecraft's camera. This is a side-effect of yesterday's solar radiation storm. "

Important Note: (from Jan 29 spaceweather Almanac - see also this latest link [blue/bold highlight] just above ...)
" NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the M6.8-class solar flare, which started this storm:

The source of the flare was departing sunspot AR3559. Not all flares cause radiation storms, but this one did because the sunspot is unusually well connected to Earth.

That may seem counterintuitive, because the sunspot is not directly facing our planet. However, when sunspots are near the sun's western limb (as AR3559 is), they can link to Earth magnetically. Take a look at this diagram, and you'll understand why. It's called "the Parker Spiral." Protons accelerated by the flare are now following the Parker Spiral toward Earth and raining down on our atmosphere.

NOAA's GOES-18 satellite is recording the protons as they pass by en route to Earth:

The three colors represent different energy ranges. Blue and green are especially noteworthy; they trace the most energetic protons capable of penetrating the metal hulls of satellites and aircraft. A significant pulse of these "hard" protons was recorded in the hours immediately after the flare. "

(Note by the OP: )
This is just one more case (of the few) that a sunspot and/or flare [and/or coronal hole/ CME, in other cases etc.] not directly facing Earth (i.e. at low angles) can still cause significant [geoeffective] solar & storm effects/events here on Earth ... (as talked about/ mentioned previously ...).

----------------------
Today's Solar picture & Solar Wind:
" Solar wind
speed: 488.6 km/sec
density: 9.71 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1256 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1128 UT Jan30
24-hr: C6 1456 UT Jan29
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1300 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Jan 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[russ_watters]

Well, im headed-up north now. According to SOHO there was a good CME yesterday that wasn't aimed in our direction but might make a glancing-blow on the 8th or 9th. So, fingers crossed on that. Another intense cluster of sunspots is swinging around into firing position, but will be too late unless it sends us a volley very soon. Not as promising a prediction as I'd hoped.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Agreed.
Well, you never know ... . It's all about timing. Wishing a good trip and best luck ...
Looking forward to the outcome ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1. "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 9th when a CME is expected to pass close to Earth. The storm would require not just a near miss, but an actual glancing blow. The asymmetric shape of the CME suggests either outcome is possible, making this a coin-flip forecast. (...) "

2.
"THE MARTIAN SUNSPOT IS FACING EARTH: A sunspot so big it was seen last week as far away as Mars has now turned to face Earth. NASA's Perseverance rover photographed it from Jezero crater, and it has only grown bigger since then. Here's how AR3576 looked yesterday from Argentina:

"The view was fantastic," says Eduardo Schaberger Poupeau, who photographed the sunspot using a solar-filtered telescope in the town of Rafaela. "AR3576 appeared as a large archipelago containing a multitude of dark cores."

In fact, the sunspot is bigger than the picture suggests. There's even more of it visible in Poupeau's full frame image. From end to end, the sunspot group stretches more than 200,000 km with at least 4 dark cores larger than Earth. You can see it using ISO-approved eclipse glasses--no magnification required.

AR3576 is big, yes, but of even greater interest is the sunspot's magnetic complexity. This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a mixture of polarities in the sunspot's core:

In the circled region, positive and negative magnetic polarities are so closely-packed, you may need to look at this unlabeled map to see them clearly. Opposite polarities bumping together can cause explosive magnetic reconnection. Indeed, NOAA forecasters say this sunspot poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares--and Earth is directly in the line of fire. Stay tuned."

3. Today's ["morning"] Sun & Solar Wind:
" Solar wind
speed: 463.6 km/sec
density: 0.10 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1107 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0848 UT Feb08
24-hr: M1 1805 UT Feb07
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1110 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Feb 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

4. The Sun & Solar Wind (& flares etc.) Now ... :
" Solar wind
speed: 474.7 km/sec
density: 0.27 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0252 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M3 1312 UT Feb08
24-hr: M3 1312 UT Feb08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1455 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Feb 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

( Note by the OP) We notice that the Solar Wind is already increased high (in speed) and rising ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Well, im headed-up north now. According to SOHO there was a good CME yesterday that wasn't aimed in our direction but might make a glancing-blow on the 8th or 9th. So, fingers crossed on that. Another intense cluster of sunspots is swinging around into firing position, but will be too late unless it sends us a volley very soon. Not as promising a prediction as I'd hoped.

Well, you might get lucky in timing and with that "Martian Sunspot" too ... . There was already an M3 flare on 13:12 UT just today, ~ a couple of hours ago ... (+ a C4 and M1 earlier etc. ...). –
– See previous post above too ...
(You might have chosen a good time to go up there ... –/ + usually there's always something interesting up there to see, usually ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

" MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Today at 1314 UT, the sun produced one of the most powerful solar flares in years, an X3.4-class explosion from just behind the sun's southwestern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The source of the flare appears to be departing sunspot AR3575. Because the blast site was eclipsed by the edge of the sun, the flare was probably even stronger than its X3.4 classification suggests. This was a big explosion.

Hours after the flare's peak, Earth is still feeling the effects of the blast. Solar protons energized by the flare are following curved magnetic field lines from the sunspot back to our planet. The resulting hailstorm, called a "radiation storm," is still intensifying at the time of this writing and has just reached category S2:

This plot shows what NOAA's GOES-18 satellite is seeing right now. The colored lines count the number of energetic protons streaming past the satellite en route to Earth. Green and blue are of special interest because they trace "hard protons" capable of upsetting spacecraft electronics, e.g., causing reboots of onboard computers and temporarily fogging cameras.

The explosion also hurled a bright CME into space. It will not hit Earth. Instead, a NASA model of the CME shows it is heading for Mercury, Venus and Mars. It will hit all three planets this weekend."
-----------------

"PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class radiation storm is underway following today's strong X3.4-class solar flare, described above. Energetic solar protons raining down on Earth's upper atmosphere are causing a polar cap absorption event, interfering with the reception of shortwave radio signals at high latitudes. Click here to view a realtime blackout map."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Multiple CMEs are coming ...

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A forecast model from NOAA shows multiple CMEs striking Earth on Feb. 13th. Their impacts could cause G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with auroras across northern-tier US States. Also, there's a slim chance they might combine to form a more potent "Cannibal CME."

1) Mon. Feb 12, 2024
"SOLAR RADIATION STORM--NOW: For the second time in less than a week, energetic solar protons are raining down on Earth's upper atmosphere. Forecasters call this a "solar radiation storm." Today's storm (near category S2) is rich in "hard protons" wiith energies greater than 50 MeV. It is causing a shortwave radio blackout inside the Arctic Circle and speckling the cameras of some Earth-orbiting satellites.

The plot above shows storm data recorded by NOAA's GOES-18 satellite in Earth orbit. Sensors on the satellite are counting energetic protons as they pass by en route to Earth. Triggered by an explosion near the sun's southwestern limb (inset), this storm could last for another 24 hours. (...)

IS A 'CANNIBAL CME' COMING? Since Feb. 7th, the sun has hurled multiple CMEs into space. A handful of them might hit Earth this week. A new NOAA forecast model shows at least three solar storm clouds approaching for strikes on Feb. 13th:

Click to play the animated forecast model​

The closely-spaced arrival of these three CMEs could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with high-latitude auroras in northern Europe, Canada, and northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

There's a chance the CMEs will pile up to form a Cannibal CME. This happens when one fast-moving CME sweeps up slower-moving CMEs in front of it. Cannibal CMEs typically contain strong shocks and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms. If such a pile-up occurs, the combined strike could cause a G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm with auroras at mid-latitudes."

2. The Sun today/now:
"Solar wind
speed: 477.6 km/sec
density: 8.15 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1040 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 2117 UT Feb12
24-hr: M6 0348 UT Feb12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2245 UT

Daily Sun: 12 Feb 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"

 

[russ_watters]

We ended up getting a nice hour-long outburst and some clear skies at 2:30 on our second (last) night (2/9). Awesome!

And an animation (if this works...):
https://www.facebook.com/518344248/videos/pcb.10159763340009249/687967793411110

 

[Stavros Kiri]

We ended up getting a nice hour-long outburst and some clear skies at 2:30 on our second (last) night (2/9). Awesome!

View attachment 340307

View attachment 340308

And an animation (if this works...):
https://www.facebook.com/518344248/videos/pcb.10159763340009249/687967793411110

Wow! I knew you'd probably get lucky ...
Friday (Feb. 9, 2024) was an interesting day (see previous posts too etc.) and it seems a good timing for you ...
Thanks for posting those. Here's also a link for that day's solar almanac:
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=02&year=2024

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Tue Feb 13, 2024

"THE FIRST CME HAS ARRIVED: The first of potentially several incoming CMEs hit Earth today at 0230 UT. The initial impact was so weak it was almost undetectable. Nevertheless, geomagnetic unrest is building as Earth moves deeper into the CME's wake. Another, stronger impact will be necessary to push Earth's magnetic field into a state of full-fledged storming. NOAA forecast models suggest that could happen later today. (...)

YESTERDAY'S EXPLOSIONS--ALL OF THEM: Yesterday, Feb. 12th, the sun produced 9 solar flares (one was almost an X-flare) and multiple filament eruptions. Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey, combined all of them into a single 24-hour image:

Click to view a time-stamped version of this image​

"This is every explosion on Feb. 12th as recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory," he explains. "I made this composite view using the observatory's 304 Å images, which show plasma at a temperature of 50,000 K."

The circled explosion, with the intense central bright spot, is the source of an ongoing S1-class radiation storm. As Solar Max approaches, days like this will become more common."

B) Morning Wed, Feb 14, 2024 (~now): (increased solar wind ...)
"Solar wind
speed: 508.9 km/sec
density: 7.79 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0357 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 0310 UT Feb14
24-hr: M1 0310 UT Feb14
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0400 UT

Daily Sun: 14 Feb 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. New sunspot AR3583 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that could produce M-class flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Fri, Feb. 16, 2024

" IMPULSIVE X-FLARE: Sunspot AR3576 erupted today at 0653 UT producing an brief but intense X2.5-class solar flare. The unusual brevity of the flare may be the only reason it did not cause a solar radiation storm via the Parker Spiral mechanism described below. Stay tuned for updates. (...)

THE DANGER OF SUNSPOTS THAT DON'T FACE EARTH: Big sunspot AR3576 is about to disappear over the sun's western limb. This makes it uniquely dangerous. Scroll past this farewell shot from astronomer Philippe Tosi to find out why:

Sunspots located near the sun's western limb are magnetically connected to Earth. The sun's magnetic field spirals around like a lawn sprinker--a shape known as the "Parker spiral." Look at this diagram. Lines of magnetic force coming out of the western limb curve around and touch our planet.

AR3576 is now in the "danger zone." If there is an eruption today, or in the next couple of days, debris may be funneled back to Earth by the Parker spiral. The resulting radiation storm could pepper satellites with high-energy protons, fogging cameras and causing reboots of onboard electronics. At such times, shortwave radio propagation can become difficult to impossible especially around the poles.

Hurry through the danger zone, AR3576! "

Solar Wind relatively normal today.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

TWO MAJOR SOLAR FLARES: Giant sunspot AR3590 just unleashed [hours ago, compared to posting here] two major X-class solar flares. The double blast approximately coincided with a widely-reported outage of cell phone service; however, experts agree that the flares were probably not responsible. More flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'delta-class' magnetic field, and it is turning toward Earth.

Also (since a couple of days ago):
"A SUNSPOT YOU CAN SEE USING ECLIPSE GLASSES: Got eclipse glasses? If so, put them on and look at the sun. There's no eclipse today, but there's still something to see. A giant sunspot is crossing the solar disk. AR3590 is so big you can see it without magnification."

" Daily Sun: 22 Feb 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Big sunspot AR3590 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wow! I knew you'd probably get lucky ...
Friday (Feb. 9, 2024) was an interesting day (see previous posts too etc.) and it seems a good timing for you ...
Thanks for posting those. Here's also a link for that day's solar almanac:
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=02&year=2024

@russ_watters , so, what was your overall assessment, regarding back then? Was it a good experience & worth it ? ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

We ended up getting a nice hour-long outburst and some clear skies at 2:30 on our second (last) night (2/9). Awesome!

View attachment 340307

View attachment 340308

And an animation (if this works...):
https://www.facebook.com/518344248/videos/pcb.10159763340009249/687967793411110

And, yes, at least for once, we got some of our people (here on PF) going up there ... – hahaha – I think it's great! Awesome! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Mon Feb. 26, 2024

"WEAK IMPACT FAILS TO CAUSE A STORM: As predicted, a CME grazed Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 25th (~1645 UT). However, the impact was weak and it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME was hurled into space on Feb. 21st by an erupting filament of magnetism (movie) in the sun's northern hemisphere. (...)

BIG SUNSPOT GETS EVEN BIGGER: Giant sunspot AR3590 spent the weekend getting bigger. This two-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows its area increasing by a quarter in only 48 hours:

AR3590 is now the largest sunspot of Solar Cycle 25. For comparison, it is now 60% as large (by surface area) as the great sunspot that caused the Carrington Event in Sept. 1859. Even a 60%-intensity Carrington Event occuring today could cause problems for satellites, power grids, and internet connectivity. That's why forecasters are carefully watching this sunspot.

Last week, AR3590 unleashed three X-flares in rapid succession, including the strongest flare of the current solar cycle (X6.3) . Since then the sunspot has been relatively quiet, producing only a handful of low-level M-class explosions. Is it gathering itself for another X-flare? If so, the flare will be geoeffective as AR3590 is directly facing Earth."

B) (a couple of days ago)
"CELL NETWORK OUTAGE EXPLAINED: A 12-hour outage of AT&T's network on Thursday interrupted cell phone service for tens of thousands of Americans. The outage coincided with a series of X-class solar flares from giant sunspot AR3590. However, the solar flares have been exonerated. AT&T did it to themselves. "Based on our initial review, we believe the outage was caused by the application and execution of an incorrect process used as we were expanding our network", the company reported. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for March 23, 2024

A BIG CME IS COMING: Two sunspots erupted at once on March 23rd, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. A bright halo CME is now heading for Earth. Models suggest it could reach our planet during the early hours of March 25th, bringing a chance of strong geomagnetic storms and mid-latitude auroras.

SOHO coronagraphs captured this halo CME heading for Earth on March 23, 2024
​

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Follow up:

1. "STRONG CME IMPACT: Arriving hours earlier than expected, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on March 24th at 1437 UT. The strong impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere and sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm. This storm will probably intensify to G3 or greater in the hours ahead. If it's dark where you live, be alert for auroras!. "

2. "STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Yesterday, the sun produced a solar flare so strong, it took two sunspots to make it. Sunspots AR3614 and AR3615 exploded in tandem on March 23rd (0130 UT), directing their fire straight at Earth. A National Solar Observatory telescope in Australia recorded the double blast:

The explosion from AR3614 (top) was so violent it seemed to rip the fabric of the sun, while AR3615 (bottom) followed very close behind with a less intense blast of its own. The same sequence was captured in this movie from NASA's Solar Dyanamics Observatory.

While this may seem like an incredible coincidence, it probably didn't happen by chance. Researchers have long known that widely-spaced sunspots can explode in tandem. They're called "sympathetic solar flares." Occasionally, magnetic loops in the sun's corona fasten themselves to distant pairs of sunspots, allowing explosive instabilities to travel from one to the other. This has apparently happened to AR3614 and AR3615.

Some sympathetic flares are so much alike, they are considered to be twins. Yesterday's double-blast was not a perfect twin, but close enough. It shows that the two sunspots are linked, raising the possibility of more double-flares this weekend. (...)"

3. " PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class solar radiation storm is underway following the twin X-flares of March 23rd. This means energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. Primary effects include an Arctic blackout of shortwave radio signals and slightly elevated radiation levels for aircraft flying over the poles."

4. Picture now:
" Solar wind
speed: 773.1 km/sec
density: 6.32 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1607 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1314 UT Mar24
24-hr: M2 1651 UT Mar23
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1610 UT

Daily Sun: 24 Mar 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3615 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"

& before closing this post:

"Solar wind
speed: 782.0 km/sec
density: 9.27 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1627 UT"

(i.e. high increasing solar wind already, as you can see directly from the data ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Together with the upcoming total Solar Eclipse [for US, Mexico & Canada etc.] (April 8) {cf. post #274 on this thread etc. &/or the main eclipse thread - eg. see refs below ...}, check out the Spiral (&/or Eclipse) Comet (nicknamed after "the Devil Comet" too) ..., which is/was/has been visible in the night sky (and these days just became naked-eye visible in the early evening sky, before it gets turning to the daytime sky [approching the Sun] around eclipse time, with close encounter [closest approach (to)] with the Sun on April 21st ...).
E.g. see:
1) https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...nnular-apr-08-2024-total.1051127/post-7073538

2) https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...nnular-apr-08-2024-total.1051127/post-7074910
...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"COMET OUTBURST CONFIRMED: Multiple astronomers are now confirming that Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks underwent a 1.1 magnitude outburst on April 2-3. Probably an ice geyser erupted on the comet's surface, spewing a Ωγmix of reflective gas and dust into space. The timing is perfect for observers who want to try to photograph the comet during the dark minutes of Monday's total solar eclipse. [sky map]

THE 'DEVIL COMET' IS NOW A NAKED-EYE OBJECT: Suddenly, amateur astronomers are seeing a naked-eye comet in the evening sky. It's Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks, also known as the 'devil comet'. Waiting for next Monday's solar eclipse in Mexico, Petr Horálek photographed the comet last night and found it much brighter than the last time he saw it:

"I assume an outburst is in progress," says Horálek. "My estimate of the comet's magnitude is +3.5. Definitely worth taking a look in the next hours and days."

Indeed, now is a good time to look. After sunset, the comet emerges in the western sky not far from the planet Jupiter. Naked-eye observers will see a dim fuzzball. Cameras and small telescopes reveal the comet's magnificent tail.

MaryBeth Kiczenski sends this composite photo of Comet 12P above the Eagle Harbor Lighthouse in Michigan:

"I could see it naked eye once my eyes adjusted--but barely!" she says. "My camera had no trouble, though. This is a stack of 20 images, 30-seconds each."

Comet 12P is approaching the sun for a close encounter later this month. Its increasing brightness and proximity to the sun means it might be visible from the path of totality during the April 8th solar eclipse. Photos of a comet inside the Moon's shadow are very rare! A tip for eclipse photographers: Take two cameras--one for the sun, and another for Comet 12P. You might be glad you did. [sky map]

more images: from Chris Schur of Payson, Arizona; from Michael Jaeger of Martinsberg Austria; from Toni Scarmato of San Costantino di Briatico, Calabria, Italy"

Note: before that [increase], the Comet was magnitude 4 ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

We can look ~ here [for the Comet - see photo], even early tonight, right after sunset, in the first ~dark horizon, to the right from Jupiter, a bit lower ... :
(/Pons-Brooks between M33 and Jupiter
Taken by Michael Jaeger on April 2, 2024 @ Martinsberg Austria)

https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=205206

and/or

https://spaceweathergallery2.com/fu...el-Jaeger-12P20240402f50newweb_1712172337.jpg

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Surprise Mid-Latitude Auroras in the USA

Space Weather News for April 19, 2024

AURORA SURPRISE: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on April 19th, sparking a geomagnetic storm and red auroras photographed as far south as Missouri. The unexpected mid-latitude display could be repeated tonight. More geomagnetic storms are in the offing as Earth passes through the CME's wake.

Above: Red auroras over Albany, Missouri, on April 19, 2024. Photo credit: Dan Bush.

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A RARE QUADRUPLE SOLAR FLARE: Sometimes we get excited about a single solar flare. This morning (April 23) the sun produced four flares in quick succession--an almost simultaneous cascade spanning hundreds of thousands of kilometers. The quadruple explosion is an extreme example of a phenomenon called "sympathetic solar flares."

​

​ Above: Sympathetic solar flare activity on April 23, 2024. + see the movie.

Or directly: https://spaceweather.com/images2024/23apr24/supersympathetic.gif
.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GLOBAL AURORAS ON MARS: NASA spacecraft have observed a dramatic episode of global auroras on Mars. For days, the entire planet was wrapped in "Northern Lights" as solar storms crashed into the Martian atmosphere. Researchers say this is Mars's greatest level of auroral activity in the past 10 years.

​

​ ​ Above: An artist's concept of NASA's MAVEN spacecraft observing ultraviolet auroras on Mars.

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[Stavros Kiri]

DOUBLE CMEs SPARK GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field on May 2nd. Individually, the impacts were minor, but together they sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras as far south as Washington in the USA. Another CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on May 4th.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE AND CME: Earlier today, a rapidly developing and unstable sunspot exploded, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. The explosion hurled a CME into space, and forecast models suggest it has an Earth-directed component. The CME could spark minor to moderate geomagnetic storms when it arrives late on May 5th.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Strong Solar Activity

Space Weather News for May 6, 2024

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER X-FLARE: Solar activity has gone into overdrive. Since May 3rd, Earth-orbiting satellites have detected four X-class solar flares and an even greater number of almost X-class events. The responsible sunspot, AR3663, is still very active, and NOAA forecasters say more X-flares are possible this week.

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from an X4.5-class solar flare on May 6, 2024. Credit: NASA/SDO

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[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for May 8, 2024

HUGE SUNSPOT HURLS CME TOWARD EARTH: A sunspot so large it visually rivals Carrington's famous sunspot of 1859 hurled a CME toward Earth today. Don't worry! A new Carrington Event is not in the offing. The incoming CME isn't potent enough. However, this huge sunspot merits watching while Earth is in its strike zone.

Above: Carrington's sunspot (to scale) compared to today's giant sunspot AR3664.

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[Stavros Kiri]

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Giant sunspot AR3664 has now hurled at least four CMEs directly toward Earth. Their combined arrival this weekend could spark severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storms with mid- to low-latitude auroras. Although this is a potentially significant space weather event, it is not going to be the next Carrington Event. If the coming storm were a hurricane, it would be ranked category 4, not category 5.

Above: A NOAA forecast model shows a 'Cannibal CME' hitting Earth during the early hours of May 11th.

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[Stavros Kiri]

May 10th, 2024 :

A)
THE CME HAS ARRIVED: Arriving hours earlier than expected, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on May 10th at 1645 UT. The big impact sparked a severe (G4) geomagnetic storm--ongoing now. More CMEs are following close behind, and their arrival could extend the storm into the weekend.

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​ Above: The source of today's CME, giant sunspot AR3664 photographed at sunset between two eucalyptus trees by Marco Meniero of Civitavecchia, Italy

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B)
The storm is even going on right now + watch out for auroras etc. ... . The Solar Wind is already too high and it may be rising ... :

"Solar wind
speed: 697.2 km/sec
density: 29.87 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0742pm UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M5 1411 UT May10
24-hr: X3 0654 UT May10
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1945 UT

Daily Sun: 10 May 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Giant sunspot AR3664 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.Credit: SDO/HMI"

C) Latest updates show a total of 6 CMEs expected (including the one above) and more severe category G4 storms as well as auroras visible even south enough etc. throughout the weekend ...

Note: the huge sunspot (responsible for all that) is also of course visible without magnification, e.g. with just eclipse glasses or other necessary protection ...

 

[berkeman]

Yeah, this could be a pain. I have a medical shift tomorrow morning in two remote locations a few hours apart, and I was relying on Google Maps and GPS to get me there. Now I've printed out hard copies of the directions as backups. Yikes, we get so used to technology!