Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

Daily Sun: 26 Nov 20

 

[Stavros Kiri]

LITTLE GREEN CANNONBALLS OF LIGHT: Researchers and citizen scientists have just discovered a new phenomenon: "Little green cannonballs of light" streaking through the atmosphere faster than 1000 mph during some geomagnetic storms. And they're not auroras. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for the full story.

 

[davenn]

This active region (AR2786) looks awesome when looking at the magnetic field ...

cropped
Image credit ... Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), part of the Solar Dynamics Observatory

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"MAGNIFICENT SUNSPOT: There's only one way to describe giant sunspot AR2786. "C'est magnifique," says amateur astronomer François Rouvière, who sends this picture from Cannes, France:

To photograph the sunspot, Rouvière used an H-alpha filter tuned to the red glow of solar hydrogen. It shows not only the sunspot's primary dark core, but also the hot atmosphere just above. Dark filaments winding around AR2786 trace a complex magnetic field that harbors energy for M-classsolar flares.

"There are also two light bridges," points out Rouvière. He's referring tothese canyons of light cutting across AR2786's dark core. The nature of light bridges is not fully understood. Some research suggests that magnetic fields at the base of a light bridge are busy cross-crossing and reconnecting--the same explosive process that sparks solar flares. If so, AR2786 might be preparing to erupt. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text."
(From: spaceweather.com)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

LITTLE GREEN CANNONBALLS OF LIGHT: Researchers and citizen scientists have just discovered a new phenomenon: "Little green cannonballs of light" streaking through the atmosphere faster than 1000 mph during some geomagnetic storms. And they're not auroras. Visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com for the full story.

See also:
1) https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/11/22/steves-cannonballs-little-green-spheres-of-light/
2) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=26&month=11&year=2020
3) (original paper) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020AV000183
4) (archive on Spaceweather.com on the day that I posted [27 Nov., 2020], (for "timelessness" of the original link etc.))
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=27&month=11&year=2020

 

[Stavros Kiri]

​ MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Today, Earth-orbiting satellites detected the biggest solar flare in more than 3 years. The M4.4-category eruption produced a shortwave radio blackout over some parts of Earth and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME). Remarkably, the flare was even bigger than it seemed. The blast site is located just behind the sun's southeastern limb, so the explosion was partially eclipsed by the body of the sun. ​ ​ Above: This "D Region Absorption" map from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center shows where shortwave radio propagation was affected by today's solar flare. Daily Sun: 29 Nov 20

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Mystery over Antarctica
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/

 

[davenn]

Mystery over Antarctica
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/12/02/strange-antarctic-weather-extends-to-the-edge-of-space/

Interesting, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere had a good NLC season this year
I have a friend in my FB astronomy group who was regularly posting photos of them that
he could see from his home in England

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interesting, the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere had a good NLC season this year
I have a friend in my FB astronomy group who was regularly posting photos of them that
he could see from his home in England

Wow!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Wed. May 12, 2021

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th, sparking the strongest geomagnetic storm of young Solar Cycle 25. Auroras would have been widely seen across Europe and in many US states, except for the fact that the storm occurred mostly during daylight hours. A high-latitude afterglow might still be visible tonight.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Sat. May 15, 2021

THE GREAT GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF MAY 1921: 100 years ago today, the biggest solar storm of the 20th century struck Earth. Buildings caught fire, telephone lines burned out, and auroras were sighted from ships at sea crossing the equator.

 

[davenn]

Space Weather News for Wed. May 12, 2021

CME SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th, sparking the strongest geomagnetic storm of young Solar Cycle 25. Auroras would have been widely seen across Europe and in many US states, except for the fact that the storm occurred mostly during daylight hours. A high-latitude afterglow might still be visible tonight.

They were well seen and photo'ed in southern New Zealand and Australia

 

[davenn]

from a FB friend in Tasmania, Australia

 

[Stavros Kiri]

from a FB friend in Tasmania, Australia

View attachment 283104

View attachment 283105

Thanks Dave! ... Amazing&Great! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR FLARE FRENZY on May 22: (Report on Mon May 24, 2021) the day before yesterday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years. Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824. One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic. NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/22may21/frenzy.gif

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New terminology? "The Termination Event" ... (for the Sun)

Is it a threat? How soon?

Take a look:

https://spaceweather.us11.list-mana...4d5ca05f64a13d085d&id=3fd59cef22&e=8bebdd3f2e

(Published June 11, 2021)

 

[davenn]

SOLAR WIND, INCOMING:
A high-speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth.
ETA: June 15-16. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere and could spark high-latitude auroras when it arrives.

 

[sophiecentaur]

I wonder about visibility at 52N. It would be a 'first' for seeing anything of astronomical interest from home.
I will pop my head outside - just in case. Thanks for the heads up!

 

[davenn]

I wonder about visibility at 52N. It would be a 'first' for seeing anything of astronomical interest from home.
I will pop my head outside - just in case. Thanks for the heads up!

Did you see anything on the low horizon ?
The auroral oval was quite a way north of the UK ( I don't know where in the UK you are ?)

 

[sophiecentaur]

Did you see anything on the low horizon ?
The auroral oval was quite a way north of the UK ( I don't know where in the UK you are ?)

View attachment 284510

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

 

[Ibix]

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

Indeed. I'm about half a degree further south, which is also disappointing - seeing aurorae is on my bucket list.

(The northern tip of mainland UK is about 58.5N, for info.)

 

[davenn]

Grrrr. 52N is the other end from the green ring.
Ho hum!

Indeed. I'm about half a degree further south, which is also disappointing - seeing aurorae is on my bucket list.

(The northern tip of mainland UK is about 58.5N, for info.)

Just remember, that this was just a small event. A much stronger event ( much larger CME, equatorial coronal hole) and the auroral oval will come much further south so don't give up hope

 

[sophiecentaur]

so don't give up hope

As they say: "watch this space". Boom boom!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

As they say: "watch this space". Boom boom!

There are many types of "boom boom". Let's "hope for the best but be prepared for the worst ..."

[E.g. what is statistically the expectation for a mini-nova? What are the chances and ~when? ... etc. ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

News for June 30 & July 1, 2021:
(This was not in the forecast)

SHOCKWAVE SPARKS AURORAS: A minor interplanetary shock wave jolted Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of June 30th, sparking rare midsummer auroras over Canada and some northern-tier US states. It might have been the edge of a CME originally expected to arrive on July 1st. If not, another jolt could occur in the next 24 hours.

(See e.g. @ Spaceweather.com. for details etc.)
[Relevant archive links: 1) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=30&month=06&year=2021 , 2) https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=01&month=07&year=2021 ]

[Additional impacts are possible on July 1st and July 3rd ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Also [currently] increasing chance of flares due to AR2835 (which has grown really big). That (if it happens [perhaps any minute now, July 1st and forth]) it may cause radio blackouts etc. ...

https://spaceweather.com/images2021/30jun21/sunspot_evolution_strip.gif

"Now twice as wide as Earth, its primary dark core is inset in this magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

As the sunspot has grown, its magnetic structure has become more complex. Note the mixing of north (+) and south (-) magnetic fields in this area. When magnetic fields of opposite polarity bump together, they can explode. The process is known as magnetic reconnection, and it is responsible for solar flares.

Any flares today will be geoeffective as the sunspot is directly faciing Earth."https://spaceweather.com/images2021/01jul21/hmi1898.gif

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Besides, [cf. previous post(s),] AR2835 has already given B2 and C3 flares (but holds dynamics/is a strong canditate even for M-class solar flares ...):

" X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0212 UT Jul01
24-hr: C3 1815 UT Jun30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0715 UT

Daily Sun: 01 Jul 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2835 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Besides, [cf. previous post(s),] AR2835 has already given B2 and C3 flares (but holds dynamics/is a strong canditate even for M-class solar flares ...):

More B-class solar flares only, so far ... (B6 & B3, July 1 & 2, so far ...)

[+ See classification of X-ray Solar Flares: https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html ]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

2 new relative points of interest regarding the recent activity above etc.:
1) A minor CME is expected to hit Earth tomorrow July 3rd (it left the Sun on June 29 ...). The impact is expected minor as well, possibly causing perhaps high latitude auroras if not geomagnetic storms ...
2) The Huge Sunspot AR2835 is even visible with unaided eye (i.e. no magnification necessary) at this point, just by using proper filter protection for the eyes! of course (e.g. eclipse solar glasses or eqivalent ...) ... ... . Don't miss it!
[I just saw it a couple of hours ago ... - it also serves as a good eye test too! ...]

 

[Stavros Kiri]

July 3rd: Radio blackout going on now (or mainly earlier today) ... Due to significant solar flare from active sunspot region AR2835 ... [In case it could get worse ... watch out for internet too, perhaps, but HOPEFULLY [and most likely] NOT (at this time/point) [unless there will be an X-class flare etc. ...] ... ...]:

Significant M2-class Solar Flare (at 0717 UT) from Active Sunspot Region AR2835 and [AM (MW & SW)] radio blackout ... still going on, just a couple of hours ago ... ...

Time for observational solar astronomy ... (CAUTION: USE FILTERS or Eclipse Solar Glasses to watch etc. ...) + the spot region AR2835 is still huge, even seen with unaided eye (i.e. no magnification necessary), WITH FILTERS of course! ...

{The huge by now sunspot AR2835 is visible even without magnification! ... BUT of course you need protective filter to see it (CAUTION!), e.g. can use solar eclipse glasses etc. ...
But/Also, IN ANY CASE, do not observe for long the domain, even with good filters ... (with or without magnification ...).}

[+
See classification of X-ray Solar Flares: https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html

#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news ]

P.S. I assume the M2 flare could trigger aurora activity too ... (We'll see)

 

[Astronuc]

SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE: Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

I was wondering about the current cycle. My wife had been asking me about radio interference the last several weeks, which I also noticed, and I assumed it was related to solar activity and the ionosphere, and related to the auroral activity.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210702.html

AR2835 (captured in a sharp telescopic close-up from July 1 and published on APOD) spans about 150,000 kilometers or over ten Earth diameters. On June 25, AR2835 and AR2836 were just starting to come around to the Earth facing side of the sun.

https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/06/sun-sunspot-ar2835

Since then, AR2835 has grown from three (June 25) to four (June 28) to 12 (June 29) to 16 (June 30) .
Images were taken using the Slooh.com Canary Five solar telescope.

Earlier in May - https://remoteastrophotography.com/2021/05/ar2822-and-ar2823

 

[sophiecentaur]

CAUTION: USE FILTERS or Eclipse Solar Glasses to watch etc. ..

If you have somewhere indoors with a long 'throw' between a window and a wall, a pinhole camera can give you a fair sized projected image or, even better, use half a pair or binoculars and (again indoors) you can project a very watchable image on a white sheet of paper (or grey, if the image is too bright for comfort). It's much easier looking down on an image than directly upwards. Experiment!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Will we see more or even worse temporary radio blackouts and/or auroras etc. due to flares the next hours or days?

We might, if we get X-class flares (e.g. X9 would probably do it! ...) ... . However, this active sunspot region (AR2835) may not do it (for now - although you never know) - it's also getting off limb ≥the day after tomorrow, besides winding down now and getting smaller ... .

But there was a new one started out/born overnight (or last night - depending on the region of observance & local time) ..., and that one flared right away!, right after its appearrence, with a C7 fairly strong flare [but still smaller than the M-class of flares though (e.g. the other M2 flare)] which also caused local temporary radio blackouts in some regions (about 8min+ after its origin on the Sun) ... . [Class C flares (weaker than M and that weaker than X ... - see link in the previous post) are in the limit in causing such radio blackouts (smaller or bigger) [and/or auroras/magnetic storms etc. ...] ... ... . M & X class flares are stronger and more likely (to cause such [effects]) and eligible in that respect ... etc. ... ].

Now if that new active spot region fortifies [properly] (we'll see) it might be more "promising" to be eligible to give rise to [M or even] X flares ... (and more Radio Blackouts etc., as well as Auroras etc. ...). We'll see ...
[More details later ... ]

#solar #spaceweather #sun #solarnews #news P.S. (in the process of posting the above ...):

And actually an X1 flare [from a new group] just occurred (a couple of hours ago) from that new spot group/region (born in the early July 3rd am hours) ... Causing NEW & bigger radio blackouts and perhaps bringing auroras too etc. ...
Details later ...
& that was the first X-flare in 4 years (since the "Monster X9 flare of Sept 2017" ...) ! ...
So it turns out I was almost right. That new spot region is indeed in fact more "promising" ... ...

#critical #possiblethreats

 

[Stavros Kiri]

If you have somewhere indoors with a long 'throw' between a window and a wall, a pinhole camera can give you a fair sized projected image or, even better, use half a pair or binoculars and (again indoors) you can project a very watchable image on a white sheet of paper (or grey, if the image is too bright for comfort). It's much easier looking down on an image than directly upwards. Experiment!

That would reduce significantly the radiation too etc. ... (It's actually a lot safer perhaps, if you do it right and be careful ...)
Great ideas ... Thanks!
[Will give it a try perhaps tomorrow - it will be an intersting weekend - and CMEs (minor) arriving on July 3rd & 4th ... – + more flares, radio blackouts perhaps etc. – we'll see)]