Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Last night, auroras spread across the United States as far south as New Mexico during a severe (category G4) geomagnetic storm. Some sky watchers also saw a luminous ribbon named "STEVE," which is not an aurora.

 

[Spinnor]

A second giant 'hole' has appeared on the sun, and it could send 1.8 million mph solar winds towards Earth​

https://news.yahoo.com/second-giant-hole-appeared-sun-133928507.html

https://i.insider.com/6419c14250c7b20018f16a0d?width=900&format=mp4

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A second giant 'hole' has appeared on the sun, and it could send 1.8 million mph solar winds towards Earth​

https://news.yahoo.com/second-giant-hole-appeared-sun-133928507.html

https://i.insider.com/6419c14250c7b20018f16a0d?width=900&format=mp4

View attachment 324130

Thanks for the heads up ! ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

AURORAS IN FLORIDA: Auroras during last week's extreme geomagnetic storm were even more widespread than previously thought. A new photo shows them creeping over the horizon in central Florida at latitude +29 degrees. Like all low-latitude auroras, they were red. (...)

Red auroras photographed from the Chiefland Astro Village in central Florida. Photo credit: Bill Williams.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

+ new today (2nd post in a row) Wed., 29 March, 2023:

YET ANOTHER X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Today, the sun produced another X-class solar flare with a strong shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia. The explosion was the 7th X-class event of 2023. This matches the total number of X-flares in all of 2022, and it's only March. What does this mean for the intensification of Solar Cycle 25? (...)

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from today's X1.2-class solar flare. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory

 

[Stavros Kiri]

AN EARTH-DIRECTED EXPLOSION ON THE SUN: Yesterday (April 21st), a large magnetic filament snaking across the sun's southern hemisphere exploded, hurling a CME straight toward our planet. Estimated time of arrival: April 24th. Minor to strong geomagnetic storms (and auroras) are possible & probably expected when the CME strikes. Caution for internet, communications, spaceflight & aviation too.
#spaceweather #solar #sun #earth #solaractivity #solarupdate #communications #internet

 

[Stavros Kiri]

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:7055698789675806720?trk=share-post-success

 

[Stavros Kiri]

There we go! ... The CME arrived earlier indeed (yesterday on the 23rd of April, 2023): " SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A CME hit Earth on April 23rd, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Auroras spread across Europe as far south as France with sightings from brightly-lit cities such as Berlin and Kraków. Bright red auroras are also being reported from China. At the time this alert is issued (just after midnight UT on April 24th) the storm is still underway, and conditions favor auroras in all northern-tier US states." #spaceweather #solar #sun #earth #solaractivity #solarupdate #auroras #solarstrom #cme #magneticstorm #communications #radio #radioblackout #internet #navigation #aviation #spaceflight #caution #warning

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Earth's magnetic field is reverberating from an unexpected CME impact on May 6th, which sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Another CME is following close on its heels. A second impact expected on May 7th or 8th could bring renewed geomagnetic storming with auroras across parts of Europe, Canada, and northern-tier US States.

" Harlan Thomas witnessed the surprising display over Gayford Pond northeast of Calgary, Alberta:

"A auroral corona of this magnitude is very rare for our latitude," says Thomas. "It extended from the eastern to western horizon, and I was in complete awe!" "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

HERE COMES ANOTHER CME: An approaching CME is peppering Earth's atmosphere with energetic particles, causing an S1-class solar radiation storm and a polar radio blackout. The CME itself will reach Earth on May 10th, bringing a chance of geomagnetic storms and auroras. [Possibly moderate (G2) to Strong (G3) geomagnetic storms ...]

 

[Astronuc]

HERE COMES ANOTHER CME: An approaching CME is peppering Earth's atmosphere with energetic particles, causing an S1-class solar radiation storm and a polar radio blackout. The CME itself will reach Earth on May 10th, bringing a chance of geomagnetic storms and auroras. [Possibly moderate (G2) to Strong (G3) geomagnetic storms ...]

https://www.space.com/solar-storm-supercharge-auroras-may-2023

A solar outburst over the weekend could lead to some stellar skywatching in the coming days.

On Sunday (May 7) at 6:54 p.m. EDT (2254 GMT), the sun emitted a long-duration M1.5-class solar flare — a medium-intensity event — directly at Earth. The high levels of radiation associated with this event have already caused minor shortwave radio blackouts on Earth, according to Spaceweather.com (opens in new tab).

The solar flare was also associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), an eruption of solar plasma that's now barreling toward our planet. The CME is expected to hit Earth early Wednesday morning (May 10), potentially sparking moderate to strong geomagnetic activity when it does so, Spaceweather.com wrote.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thanks @Astronuc for the quoted article. Also, @swampwiz suggested this live aurora forecast site (for the northern hemisphere): https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg
Take a look. It's really handy in use! ...

 

[Astronuc]

Yes, I am familiar with SWPC and SpaceWeather.gov
https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/r2-moderate-hf-radio-blackout-event-09-may-2023-utc

Also, https://www.sidc.be/

I believe NOAA's SWPC is the go to site.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space weather news for June 16, 2023: CIR SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Earth's magnetic field is reverberating today from the impact of a solar wind structure that many sky watchers have never heard of--a "CIR." Short for "co-rotating interaction regions," CIRs can spark bright auroras when they hit Earth. That's exactly what happened last night with colorful lights sighted in both hemispheres.

Above: Auroras over New Zealand on June 16, 2023. Photo credit: Ian Griffin

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for June 20, 2023

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME: A new sunspot erupted today, producing an X1-class solar flare and a fast-moving CME. The CME might miss Earth. Instead it is heading for Venus and Mars. Impacts later this week could scrape some atmosphere off Venus and spark ultraviolet auroras on Mars.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A)
SOLAR MAX IS BOOSTING AIRGLOW: A dramatic display of green lights over Colorado last week tricked observers into thinking they were witnessing auroras. In fact, it was something completely different. The approach of Solar Maximum is boosting a phenomenon called "airglow" that can appear anywhere on Earth at any time.

" Aaron Watson photographed the dramatic display from the West Elk Mountains:

"I woke up around midnight to crystal clear skies," says Watson. "I noticed some wispy rays and, at first, I thought maybe it was noctilucent clouds. Upon closer inspection there was an intense green glow rippling across the entire sky."

Although this looks a lot like aurora borealis, it is something completely different: airglow. Cameras with nighttime exposure settings can pick up the faint emission from anywhere on Earth even when geomagnetic activity is low. All that's required is a very dark sky.

"Airglow is produced by photochemistry in Earth's upper atmosphere," says space scientist Scott Bailey of Virginia Tech. "And it is very interesting photochemistry." "

B) For today, June 28, 2023

" NAKED-EYE SUNSPOT: If you have eclipse glasses, put them on and look at the sun. There's a naked-eye sunspot today (AR3354). South Korean astronomer Bum-Suk Yeom saw it this morning and created this infographic:

The sunspot is seven times wider than Earth itself, covering an area of the sun equal to ~25% of the historical Carrington sunspot. These dimensions mean it can be seen with the human eye (no magnification required) if the sun is properly filtered.

The amazing thing is, this sunspot didn't exist two days ago. It has grown with remarkable rapidity. Such a fast-changing active region can hardly be stable. Indeed, it is seething with activity and could soon produce a significant flare. "

CAUTION (added by the OP): DO NOT look at the Sun WITHOUT Solar Eclipse Glasses OR Equivalent protection !!! "Naked eye" here basically means that no magnification is necessary. EYE PROTECTION from the Sun is IMPORTANT though. However, and in any case, EVEN WITH PROPER PROTECTION, do not look at the event for extended time. I suggest Max only 30sec to 1min duration (and perhaps repeat a couple of times with breaks in between). This is important for your eye protection. Solar Radiation (including non-visible) around the center of observation is increased & intensified, and even with eclipse glasses or similar protection it may be potentially dangerous for the eyes if observing straight to the Sun for extended time ... .
([Unless,] One may use a diverted or slit/hole projection chamber, which makes it of course less dangerous ...)
S.K.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for August 5, 2023

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Last night, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field, sparking a brief but strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were photographed in the United States as far south as Arizona. Another CME is coming and could deliver a similar blow on Aug. 8th.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Mild, minor or even important [and ~ more or less ~ expected etc. ...] activity for some time, in between, since last time/post etc. ... ...

Now (today Wed. 29 Nov, 2023 - [and/or] posting before coming up Th./ early morning of Th. 30 Nov. 2023 [in some areas of the Globe etc. ...] ...), new important announcement [for/by ...] :

" Space Weather News for Nov 28, 2023
( https://spaceweather.com )

STRONG SOLAR FLARE: A sunspot directly facing Earth erupted today, Nov. 28th, producing an M9.8-class solar flare only percentage points below category X. The explosion almost certainly hurled a CME toward Earth, joining 2 to 3 more CMEs already en route. These events set the stage for geomagnetic storms later this week. "

Keep an eye (storms & e.g. for possible auroras coming up etc. ...), stay tuned [&]/ watch this space (/[and/or spaceweather.com ...]) etc. ... ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A)
{Quoting announcement (from Dec. 1) following the occurred Canibal CME & solar storms + auroras etc. ...) ... : }

"STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Multiple CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1st, sparking a strong geomagnetic storm. In the USA, red auroras were photographed as far south as Arizona and California. The storm is subsiding now, but geomagnetic 'aftershocks' could ignite more auroras during the night of Dec. 1-2."

([Prior/etc. ...] There was a Cannibal CME etc. .../c.f. below etc. ...)

B) [posted today, Dec. 3, 2023]

[1.]
" A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A huge hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it is directly facing Earth. Solar wind flowing from the hole will reach our planet on Dec. 4th or 5th. Its arrival should spark G1-class geomagnetic storms. "

[2.]

" STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A Cannibal CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1st, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with auroras in both hemispheres. "We witnessed an incredible show on the Canterbury coastline overlooking the Pacific Ocean," reports Mike White from New Zealand. "The sound of waves crashing onto the beach and washing across the stony pebbles created the perfect soundtrack for these Southern Lights."

"The Cannibal CME arrived just as New Zealand skies were darkening. The resulting cloud of charged particles rained down Earth's magnetic field lines and delivered a light show that lasted for hours. It was easily visible to the naked eye."

Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, auroras descended as far south as Arizonaand California. Marybeth Kiczenski was in rural Wisonsin when the Northern Lights raced overhead:

This is my favorite tree in Wisconsin," says Kiczenski. "After five separate attempts for catch auroras at this location, it finally came together!"

The storm is subsiding now, with minor G1-class activity in progress as Earth exits the CME's wake. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras through Dec. 2nd. "
.

C) [Picture right now: (Sun Dec. 3, 2023, 5:31am EST [10:31 UT] ...) ]

" Solar wind
speed: 421.1 km/sec
density: 5.42 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1026 UT X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0806 UT Dec03
24-hr: C4 0806 UT Dec03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1030 UT Daily Sun: 02 Dec 23

Sunspot AR3500 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "
.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

+ cf. previous etc. ...

A) short announcement:
"A LARGE HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: Geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 4th and 5th when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from an unusually large hole in the sun's atmosphere. See what it looks like on today's edition of Spaceweather.com."

(it always updates to new when viewed later - then use internal time almanac feature of that site [within the spaceweather.com site] ... etc. – [Note added by the OP (S.K.) ...] )
(auroras possible expected too etc. ...)

B) detailed announcement ... :

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): Earth's magnetic field is about to receive a double blow. First, on Dec. 4th, a high-speed stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole will arrive. Then, on Dec. 5th, an off-target CME could deliver a glancing blow. Their combined effect is expected to cause G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with photographic auroras at mid-latitudes. (...)

A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A huge hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it spewing a stream of solar wind directly toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the structure, which stretches almost 800,000 km along its long axis:

This is a coronal hole--a region in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields have opened up, allowing solar wind to escape. The hole looks dark because hot glowing gas normally contained there is missing. The gaseous material is on its way to Earth.

The solar wind is due to arrive Dec. 4th or 5th. Together with a glancing-blow CME, also en route, it could spark G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms. "

C) "Picture" of the Sun & the Solar Wind etc.(i.e. + e.g. recent flares etc. ...) right now (at the time of post etc. ...) :

" Solar wind
speed: 542.1 km/sec
density: 14.85 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0636 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1516 UT Dec04
24-hr: C8 0126 UT Dec04
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1840 UT

Daily Sun: 04 Dec 23

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3500 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI ".

Note by the OP: we notice a relatively increased Solar Wind reaching Earth here already ... (and even started a bit on the increase since yesterday/last night etc. ... - /+ cf. & compare previous post etc. ...). However, further increase is expected ahead, especially during thr announced/expected [Solar] Storms and Auroras etc. . In any case, watch out for Internet connections too & effects/disruptions on Communications etc. ... (mainly on AM(=SW, MW, LW) Bands ...), perhaps, if any. In any case however, this time the expected results and effects may still remain on the mild rather than stronger or strong side. We'll see ...
S.K.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

High (relatively) solar wind remains yesterday & today [Th. Dec. 7, 2023], near the 500 Km/sec mark (± ...), which has caused and still is causing problems in AM bands [SW, MW, LW] (mainly up to ~ 7 MHz) ...
Some flaring too ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Later, problems up to ~14 MHz and even internet failure in some areas (around 4-6hrs ago). There was a local peak in Solar Wind Speed of 523 Km/sec at 23:36 UT (6:36pm EST). Now, at this point (time of the post [~ 10pm EST (Dec 7, 2023), or 03:00 UT (Dec 8 ...)], the phenomenon has relatively lowerer or relatively subsided (temporarlely, for now [?]), and the speed is ranging around the 450-480 Km/sec mark ... (±) ... .

It's not clear however yet at this point whether the interruption to comunications [and possible (un-reported yet) auroras around the globe etc. ... (related to a seemingly mild to medium storm ...)] (e.g. around that peak mentioned above etc. [and with regards to both these two latest posts ...]) was due to a temporary crack (hole) on Earth's magnetic field (e.g. due to the raging high solar wind or possibly a passing C.I.R. [Co-rotating Interaction Region] ..., may be), OR a simple flare ... .
More analysis perhaps later, when the phenomenon becomes officially known or appropriately reported. So far, regarding this, these were based solely on my own observations and measurement studies and analysis [no official report for a storm yet, yesterday and/or today] and the internet failure in my area, where/while the radio problems seem that were more global for a few hours. More later, and hopefuly more specific.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

In the meantime, ... (& C. has been on and uploaded since yesterday [Dec 7]) :

A.
(Solar & Solar Wind general picture now)
" Solar wind
speed: 478.3 km/sec
density: 8.94 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0330 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C7 0112 UT Dec08
24-hr: C8 2057 UT Dec07
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0335 UT

Daily Sun: 07 Dec 23

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3513 is crackling with M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Notice that there was in fact a C7 flare at 01:12 UT today, this morning, Dec 8, 2023 ... . It could be related to the partial radio blackout ... etc. ... (?), or just coincidence ... (?).

B.
" A CME IS HEADING FOR MARS: Earlier today, a full halo CME left the sun. Analysts believe it will miss Earth. Instead, it is heading for Mars. NASA models suggest a direct hit on Dec. 11th. The impact will probably spark ultraviolet auroras and erode a small amountof the Red Planet's atmosphere. "

C.
" A 'SIGMOID' ERUPTION ON THE SUN: When you see an "S" on the sun, it usually means something is about to explode. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this classic example of a "sigmoid eruption" on Dec. 6th:

In the movie, an S-shaped magnetic filament erupts, creating a 'splash' of debris more than 100,000 km wide. Researchers have long known that sigmoid structures in the sun's atmosphere herald strong explosions. The magnetic field lines that comprise them are twisted like a slinky; when enough tension builds up, they un-twist explosively.

Usually, sigmoid explosions produce CMEs. This one *might* have hurled a faint CME toward Earth. We're not sure because multiple CMEs were leaving the sun at the time of the blast, and there was much confusion. Don't be surprised if a sigmoid CME delivers a weak but direct blow to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 9th. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1.
Space Weather News for Dec. 14, 2023
MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The sun just unleashed the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward Earth.

2. (More detailed)
" (UPDATED) STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE: Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: blackout map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare.

This explosion probably launched a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) Soon after the blast, the US Air Force is reported a Type II solar radio burst, which typically comes from the leading edge of a CME. Based on the drift rate of the radio burst, the CME's velocity could exceed 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph).

Confirmation: Newly-arriving images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a lopsided halo CME:

Although this CME is not squarely aimed at Earth, it does appear to have an Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is likely on Dec. 17th. "

3. "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1-G3): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 15th or 16th in response to an incoming solar wind stream with a stealthy CME embedded in it. Storm levels could escalate to category G2 (Moderate) or G3(Strong) on Dec. 17th when the CME from yesterday's X2.8-class flare arrives."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Dec. 15, 2023
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 15th at 1216 UT. It was a weak impact that did not spark a full-fledged geomagnetic storm. It might, however, set the stage for a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 17th when a CME from yesterday's X-flare is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. Storm levels could reach category G2(Moderate). (...)

A FUSILLADE OF SOLAR FLARES: Sunspot 3514 continued to flare today with a strong M7-class event following close on the heels of yesterday's X2.8-class boomer. The X-flare on Dec. 14th was the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.

Only the fact that AR3514 is approaching the sun's western limb prevents it from causing strong geomagnetic storms here on Earth. Eruptions from the sunspot are a little off-target. Nevertheless, we will not escape unscathed. The X2.8-class flare hurled a fast-moving CME into space, and it will probably graze Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 17th. We are still awaiting the results of NOAA modeling to confirm the timing of impact and the possible strength of any resulting geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned. (...)"

B) Dec. 16, 2023 (today)
" MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: Geomagnetic storms are likely on Dec. 16th and 17th when multiple CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field. A new NOAA model shows three CMEs combining to form a single storm front, striking in unison on Dec. 16th around 20:00 UT:

Click to view an animation of this forecast model​

All of the incoming CMEs were launched into space by sunspot AR3514, which has been flaring almost constantly since Dec. 13th. The most important CME is linked to the X2.8-class flare of Dec. 14th; that one alone should be sufficient to spark a geomagnetic storm this weekend.

NOAA analysts have issued a watch for G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with a chance of escalating to category G3 (Strong). A strong storm would produce auroras at mid-latitudes with no Moon to spoil the show. Stay tuned! (...) "

C. Picture right now ... (this morning, up to 10:50 UT ...) :

Already increased speed & density in the Solar Wind, as of a few hours ago ... (etc.) [e.g. rougly (time-local max) ~480 Km/sec, ~13 protons/cm³ ... (separately, independently for the two values ...), or less, up & down oscillating ...]

C1) & Latest ... (11:00 UT) :
" Solar wind
speed: 480.0 km/sec
density: 10.34 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1056 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 0546 UT Dec16
24-hr: C5 2129 UT Dec15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1100 UT

Daily Sun: 16 Dec 23

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Departing sunspot AR3514 poses a threat for strong X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

D) (later look – further increasing ...)
" Solar wind
speed: 499.0 km/sec
density: 13.05 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1115 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Report/Update, Mon. Dec. 18, 2023 :

A)
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH -- CANCELED: The weekend forecast called for a G2-class geomagnetic storm. It didn't happen. Forecasters thought a CME would hit Earth on Dec. 16th; either the CME missed or hit so weakly that satellite sensors did not detect it. Either way, the watch is canceled. (...)

NEVERTHELESS, THERE WERE AURORAS: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 15th. It wasn't the "big one" from the previous day's X2.8-class solar flare. This was a minor CME expected to have little impact on Earth's magnetosphere. Nevertheless, there were auroras:

"I could see them even without my camera," says Kashmir Williams who photographed the display from Neah Bay, Washington.

The lights appeared on Dec. 17th as Earth was passing through the CME's magnetized wake. Intermittent, minor geomagnetic storming from this relatively insignificant CME produced auroras from Canada to Scandinavia.

The moral to the story: Even little CMEs are worth knowing about! (...) " [and worth/possible for producing auroras etc. – also minor internet problems were seen in different areas for some reason (besides the reported radio blackouts after/following the big flare etc. ...)]

B.) Picture of Sun & Solar Wind right now:
" Solar wind
speed: 467.8 km/sec
density: 7.05 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0507 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C6 1422 UT Dec18
24-hr: M1 2017 UT Dec17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1710 UT

Daily Sun: 18 Dec 23

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

All of these sunspots have stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Dec. 31, 2023

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a major X5-class solar flare. It is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. The underlying sunspot is a giant, and it is turning toward Earth with more flares in the offing.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Interesting Solar times, as we're obviously approaching the peak of the cycle, most likely within this year (2024), although originally expected ~2025 ...

1. A major X5-class solar flare (see previous post) failed to direct a significant CME earth-directed component (as/because the spot was just appearing on the Limb ...), and though a warning was in effect, the CME portion probably missed our planet ... (and storm warnings got cancelled).
2. However, a passing CIR the same day of the explosion (accidental) did cause minor storms & auroras on Jan. 1st & 2nd ... (see below) [EPAM data exceeded threshold those days etc. ...].
3.
"THE FIRST AURORAS OF THE YEAR: On Jan. 1st, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap and fueled the first auroras of 2024. Northern lights tour guide Chris Percival photographed the display over Vesterålen, Norway:

"Our guests had a fantastic display here tonight in Arctic Norway," says Percival. "Shortly after the Moon rose and lit up the landscape, the aurora borealis decided to make a powerful appearance."

The "crack" was formed by the impact of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. They contain CME-like shocks that open cracks and spark strong Arctic auroras."

4. (today's look [Jan. 4 (&5), 2024])
"ANOTHER STRONG SOLAR FLARE (UPDATED): Demonstrating its continued potency, sunspot AR3536 produced another strong flare today. The M4-class explosion peaked on Jan. 4th at 0155 UT, and hurled a streamer of plasma into space:

Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. Mariners may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare's peak.

Update: Newly-arriving images from SOHO coronagraphs show no significant Earth-directed CME. This explosion will not be geoeffective."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Here's an interesting & convenient aurora forecast site: https://auroraforecast.com

Also, live EPAM data for the Solar Wind:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
[EPAM = Electron Proton Alpha Monitor ...]

I think these enhance a lot further the data from spaceweather.com that I usually quote (with added remarks & structure etc.) ...

I hope to find them all useful in the days to come, ahead ...

------------------
Also, Note (broadly related): reminder for the 2024 (April 8) totality (for[/passing over] US, Mexico & Canada ...) [total Solar Ecipse] ..., that many people have been anxiously waiting for, for some years now ...

e.g. see https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/

+ e.g. see other related threads here on PF ...

 

[russ_watters]

Here's an interesting & convenient aurora forecast site: https://auroraforecast.com

Thanks for all these updates -- and that forecast site will come in handy; I'm headed up to Alaska next month to have a look. What I'm gathering from the recent updates and googling the Sun's rotation rate, is that I'll have about two week's notice from when a sunspot group first appears to when it'll be pointed at Earth to potentially spray us with an eruption. Is that correct?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Thanks for all these updates -- and that forecast site will come in handy; I'm headed up to Alaska next month to have a look. What I'm gathering from the recent updates and googling the Sun's rotation rate, is that I'll have about two week's notice from when a sunspot group first appears to when it'll be pointed at Earth to potentially spray us with an eruption. Is that correct?

You're welcome! Wow, great idea for a trip & experience! (& now is a good time too!) ... [Never been up there - only via the internet ...]. I hope you have a great time up there. I sometimes check out live web cams for arctic auroras etc. (e.g. arctic camera, Fairbanks Alaska & more ...), although I haven't done that for sometime ...
It would be great if you gave updates after or while the trip etc. ...
Here's some more tips too:
1) https://www.alaska.org/detail/aurora-pointe-activity-center
2) https://www.explorefairbanks.com/explore-the-area/aurora-season/aurora-tracker/
3) (list of Alaska live cameras)
https://511.alaska.gov/cctv?start=0&length=10&order=1&order[dir]=asc
4) (& this is a great one for live auroras ... ! ) https://auroranotify.com/cam/

{[But if you still want to go to Alaska ..., sure, yes you can ... (hahaha), – (I'm sure) it'll be [(a lot) more] fun too! ...]} -----------------
& about the rotation time frame (for sun spots), yes you're right. Sun's rotation period about itself is ~27 days ..., so ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

What I'm gathering from the recent updates and googling the Sun's rotation rate, is that I'll have about two week's notice from when a sunspot group first appears to when it'll be pointed at Earth to potentially spray us with an eruption. Is that correct

(cf. previous above/ adding: ) Keep in mind too though that not only eruptions (flares or CME's [which are two separate but sometimes connected things ...]) from sunspot groups produce Solar Storms and/or Auroras on Earth (either via the active Solar Wind [usually CMEs] OR direct speed-of-light-propagated X-Ray Solar Flares ...), but there's also Coronal Holes (in the Sun's Magnetic field) that can produce active (usually for many days) CMEs (sometimes with continous slow or fast gradual emission of particles ... – Enhancing and Constituting the [Active] Solar Wind ...), which are neither periodic nor directly related to sunspot groups ... etc. (& actually the study and discovery for/of 'prediction or behaviour models' for such phenomena still consists an open problem in Solar Physics etc. ...), however they too rotate according to the Sun's rotation period, of course ... (so you can keep in mind for tracking[/keeping track of] those too - i.e. "Coronal Holes" and their "Coronal Mass Ejections" (CMEs) ...).

Also [/In Addition], Earth (solar based) magnetic storms and auroras can be caused too by other (but sometimes, or most of the time, related to the above) phenomena, such as:
A) Dynamic propagation/kinetic type [& interaction of CMEs & Within the Solar etc.] phenomena, such as 1. CIRs (Co-rotating Interaction Regions) 2. Cannibal CMEs or 3. more/other phenomena/types/categories ...

(and/or)
B) Cracks of Earth's Magnetic Field for Some/or Any reason ... {e.g. even due to A), or the previously above mentioned phenomena, etc. ..., or due to other reasons too ...}

 C) Other ...

[Thus/That's why] A full professional Magnetic Storm & Aurora Forecast (e.g. from/based on official valid sources - some already quoted on previous posts) is a muliple not easy task, as/because it usually has to take into account (or takes into account) all the above reasons/phenomena & more ... (and not just based on Sunspot groups activity & behaviour [such as eruptions [flares, or/ CMEs etc.], which are usually the most common though ...]) ...

 

[Tom.G]

the Sun's rotation rate, is that I'll have about two week's notice from when a sunspot group first appears to when it'll be pointed at Earth to potentially spray us with an eruption. Is that correct?

& about the rotation time frame (for sun spots), yes you're right. Sun's rotation period about itself is ~27 days ..., so ...

Or about 1 week from when it appears on the rim.

 

[russ_watters]

Or about 1 week from when it appears on the rim.

Lol, oops. Thanks.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Or about 1 week from when it appears on the rim.

Nope. 2x14 = 28 ... (simple math)
Sunspot groups hide for almost 2 weeks (and/or they appear for 2 weeks too), or JUST a bit less actually ...
[Explanation: we always see ~half the Sun and Sun's rotation period about its own axis is ~27 days ...
So approximately 2 weeks (per appearence disappearence from the limb etc. ...) ...]