Space Stuff and Launch Info

[mfb]

Falcon 9 might return to flight within a day. SpaceX has sent a drone ship to the planned landing area - they must expect at least some chance to get FAA approval in time. 12 days would be an exceptionally short turnaround after a launch failure, but it looks like the fix is simple.

 

[mfb]

NASA cancels the $500 million VIPER lunar rover. Or should we say Congress cancels it?
The rover is built and on track for launch in September 2025. NASA spent the money for construction, NASA spent the money for a launch contract. All that's left to do is finishing the test program and keeping the rover fully functional until its launch. But the program cost hit some magical +30% budget overrun threshold which automatically triggered a review of the program - and that didn't recommend spending the remaining $84 million that would be needed to actually send the vehicle.

The launch will still happen, but Astrobotic now plans to carry a mass simulator while the rover will rot in some storage room.

 

[mfb]

SpaceX has concluded the Falcon 9 accident investigation.
An oxygen leak in a line leading to a sensor. This sensor was not critical, so SpaceX removed the sensor and the line leading to it. They also reinforced some other lines.

The FAA has allowed Falcon 9 to resume launches - not concluding the investigation yet, but finding no public safety issue.
SpaceX now aims at a Saturday launch.

Two weeks between successful flights would be a great launch cadence for most companies. Doing that after a launch failure is unheard of.

----

Boeing has made progress studying the Starliner issues.
Press conference
Still no return date, and it appears Boeing didn't properly test various aspects of the capsule before launching.
The backup option, launching Crew-9 with two astronauts and making the Starliner crew stay for another 6 months in its 8-day mission, is more feasible now that Falcon 9 can fly again. NASA will ask for a few missions with the new configuration before Crew-9, but SpaceX should reach these quickly.

 

[mfb]

Successful return to flight of Falcon 9 after 15 days, launching a batch of Starlink satellites. Two more are planned within a day, using all three launch pads as soon as SpaceX could.

----

NASA nears decision on what to do with Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft
A lot more detail about the thrusters. Boeing and NASA understand what went wrong now, what's still not fully clear is the extent of the damage in the Starliner in space.
A decision how to proceed could happen within a week.

Crew-9 will fly in August. NASA has now decided that the next crew will also fly on Dragon (Crew-10) in early 2025. The first operational Starliner mission could happen after that (so ~August 2025). Maybe later, but certainly not earlier.

 

[mfb]

NASA says it is “evaluating all options” for the safe return of Starliner crew
A flight readiness review that was scheduled for August 1 was cancelled, NASA wants to give an update next week.

One informed source said it was greater than a 50-50 chance that the crew would come back on Dragon. Another source said it was significantly more likely than not they would. To be clear, NASA has not made a final decision. This probably will not happen until at least next week. It is likely that Jim Free, NASA's associate administrator, will make the call.

If NASA decides that it's not safe enough to return with Starliner then we are unlikely to see a 6 months crew mission as next flight. It seems unlikely that Boeing is willing to pay for another certification flight either. Maybe NASA will pay something extra for another shorter flight? Relying on Dragon alone is possible, but not ideal.

Trivia: If the Starliner crew returns on Dragon, they will be the first people to use four orbital spacecraft for launch or return in their career. Both flew on the Space Shuttle and Soyuz before.

 

[Rive]

This 'Starliner' more and more looks like a failed project.