US Presidential Primaries, 2008

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In summary, the Iowa Caucus is going to be a close race, with Huckabee and Paul fighting for fourth place.

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?

  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
  • #911
Does this help?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24437039"
 
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  • #913
This is the first time that I've ever seen press coverage of the Guam election results. Too funny!
 
  • #914
Who Will Tell the People?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/opinion/04friedman.html
by THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, NYTimes Op-Ed Columnist

Traveling the country these past five months while writing a book, I’ve had my own opportunity to take the pulse, far from the campaign crowds. My own totally unscientific polling has left me feeling that if there is one overwhelming hunger in our country today it’s this: People [Americans] want to do nation-building. They really do. But they want to do nation-building in America.

. . . .

That’s why Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous defense of why he did not originally send more troops to Iraq is the mantra of our times: “You go to war with the army you have.” Hey, you march into the future with the country you have — not the one that you need, not the one you want, not the best you could have.

A few weeks ago, my wife and I flew from New York’s Kennedy Airport to Singapore. In J.F.K.’s waiting lounge we could barely find a place to sit. Eighteen hours later, we landed at Singapore’s ultramodern airport, with free Internet portals and children’s play zones throughout. We felt, as we have before, like we had just flown from the Flintstones to the Jetsons. If all Americans could compare Berlin’s luxurious central train station today with the grimy, decrepit Penn Station in New York City, they would swear we were the ones who lost World War II.

How could this be? We are a great power. How could we be borrowing money from Singapore? Maybe it’s because Singapore is investing billions of dollars, from its own savings, into infrastructure and scientific research to attract the world’s best talent — including Americans.

. . . .

Much nonsense has been written about how Hillary Clinton is “toughening up” Barack Obama so he’ll be tough enough to withstand Republican attacks. Sorry, we don’t need a president who is tough enough to withstand the lies of his opponents. We need a president who is tough enough to tell the truth to the American people. Any one of the candidates can answer the Red Phone at 3 a.m. in the White House bedroom. I’m voting for the one who can talk straight to the American people on national TV — at 8 p.m. — from the White House East Room.

Who will tell the people? We are not who we think we are. We are living on borrowed time and borrowed dimes. We still have all the potential for greatness, but only if we get back to work on our country.

. . . .
From my experience of traveling internationally, I'm always amazed at the difference between foreign cities and ports of entry, and those of the US. Many of the US airports look run down compared to foreign airports in the industrialized countries, although I have seen slight improvements at JFK, and Newark (EWR) Airport is actually quite nice.

America needs to be investing in America. Deferred maintenance on the national infrastructure is a growing problem, as the American Society of Civil Engineers reminds us annually.
 
  • #915
I spent the weekend in Bloomington Indiana, volunteering (knocking 'n' talking) for an undisclosed candidate. It was quite an educational experience!
 
  • #916
Astronuc said:
America needs to be investing in America. Deferred maintenance on the national infrastructure is a growing problem, as the American Society of Civil Engineers reminds us annually.
The state of our public infrastructure is shameful and deferring proper maintenance will cost us far more in the long run than we know. Hillary and McCain want to give us all a gas-tax holiday for the summer, robbing our highway maintenance budget of sorely-needed revenue. If they want to bring down the price of fuel, they should get together in a bi-partisan partnership and ram a bill through Congress requiring that Bush immediately stop adding to the strategic petroleum reserve. It's idiotic to crimp oil supplies and waste money adding to the reserve while oil prices are at record highs and production is maxed out. Bush's oil-company buddies are raking it in, laughing at how we are being played for suckers.
 
  • #917
Gokul43201 said:
I spent the weekend in Bloomington Indiana, volunteering (knocking 'n' talking) for an undisclosed candidate. It was quite an educational experience!
Good for you Gokul. There is nothing like going door to door and being allowed to enter someone's home to talk about a candidate for learning about democracy and elections. One might think there would be a lot of rudeness but I found it to be incredibly civil, 99% so, even when knocking on doors of those that you know ahead of time oppose your candidate.
 
  • #918
I'll go with Obama to win NC and IN primaries today. I expect IN might be close.
 
  • #919
I think Clinton will take Indiana, but by such a small margin the delegates will be evenly split. Obama will take North Carolina.
 
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  • #920
Gokul43201 said:
I spent the weekend in Bloomington Indiana, volunteering (knocking 'n' talking) for an undisclosed candidate. It was quite an educational experience!

It must have been difficult to push the appropriate agenda if no one knows who the candidate is.

Seriously, my hat is off to you, Mr. Gokul. :approve:
 
  • #921
Astronuc said:
I'll go with Obama to win NC and IN primaries today. I expect IN might be close.

lisab said:
I think Clinton will take Indiana, but by such a small margin the delegates will be evenly split. Obama will take North Carolina.

Trends from the last 1 week of polling data suggest Obama by 5-9 points in NC and Clinton by 4-8 in IN. The most recent polls (both Zogby) have shown better numbers for Obama, but I've noticed this in the past with their data.

mheslep said:
Good for you Gokul. There is nothing like going door to door and being allowed to enter someone's home to talk about a candidate for learning about democracy and elections. One might think there would be a lot of rudeness but I found it to be incredibly civil, 99% so, even when knocking on doors of those that you know ahead of time oppose your candidate.

Ivan Seeking said:
It must have been difficult to push the appropriate agenda if no one knows who the candidate is.

Seriously, my hat is off to you, Mr. Gokul. :approve:
Thanks, you two.

Ivan, get your hat back on, grab Integral, Tsu and anyone else around you and get moving. Oregon is right round the corner...
 
  • #922
Based on the polls consistently exaggerating Obama's vote I'd say Clinton IN by ~9 points and Obama NC by ~5 points or less.
 
  • #923
Gokul said:
Ivan, get your hat back on, grab Integral, Tsu and anyone else around you and get moving. Oregon is right round the corner...

eeeek, truthfully I hadn't even thought about it. Since when does the Oregon vote matter?!

Get this: Something has changed and as an Independent, I can't vote in the primary. I could have re-registered as a Dem, but I'm an Independent for good reason and won't compromise my principles now.
 
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  • #924
I think the Gokulator is about on with his prediction. Heavy early turnout in Barak-leaning regions of IN was looking good for him, but the most dependable voters are older women, and they will likely hand Clinton a thin margin of victory today. NC for Obama, but by single digits. Clinton will not get out of this race. In fact, operatives in her campaign say that they will use what they call the "Nuclear Option" to force the credentialing committee to seat the MI and FL delegates she claims to have won. If she pulls that off, we'll see hordes of black voters voting for McCain or staying home.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html
 
  • #925
Ivan Seeking said:
eeeek, truthfully I hadn't even thought about it. Since when does the Oregon vote matter?!

Get this: Something has changed and as an Independent, I can't vote in the primary. I could have re-registered as a Dem, but I'm an Independent for good reason and won't compromise my principles now.
I think that the last time I registered, it was as a Democrat, to get the opportunity to vote for a pro-labor candidate for Congress in the primaries. I have changed affiliations over the years to support candidates I like, not as a spoiler. I wish the Republicans had put up a more intelligent presidential candidate this year, instead of the more-of-the-same-Bush idiot. Why can't Republicans dig into their party and come up with decent thoughtful candidates like Bill Cohen - former Maine senator, former Secretary of Defense? We could have a First Lady of African-American descent!
 
  • #926
turbo-1 said:
Why can't Republicans dig into their party and come up with decent thoughtful candidates like Bill Cohen - former Maine senator, former Secretary of Defense? We could have a First Lady of African-American descent!

We still could :cool: !
 
  • #927
Ivan Seeking said:
I'm an Independent for good reason and won't compromise my principles now.
Yeah, this is a bad time for it.
 
  • #928
Gokul43201 said:
Trends from the last 1 week of polling data suggest Obama by 5-9 points in NC and Clinton by 4-8 in IN. The most recent polls (both Zogby) have shown better numbers for Obama, but I've noticed this in the past with their data.

Zogby does poll stronger for Obama than Clinton. A nice review of the pollsters is posted on the http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/6/9452/28619/919/509617" . Zogby has been quite off this primary season.

Survey USA has the best record of those examined and is slightly +Clinton.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=06dd4624-776e-440d-811a-79584a511f2f". 12% sounds a bit off, though. We'll see...
 
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  • #929
Obama in Both States, by small margins, but a somewhat bigger small margin in NC.

Is that a vague enough prediction for everyone?:biggrin:
 
  • #931
With 72% complete in IN, Hillary's lead is down to 5%. Most remaining numbers are to come from Bloomington, Indy and Gary. This may end up being pretttty close!
 
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  • #932
MSNBC has just changed IN status from "too early to call" to "too close to call."

Looks like it's going to be an exciting night. Hilary's lead down by 4...
 
  • #933
Woohoo, not a good night for Clinton.
 
  • #935
I was wondering why Obama Girl answered the phone when I called the help line.
 
  • #936
You didn't ask her (or was Tsu around)?

Things are essentially decided now.

Obama will win NC by at least 13%, and Clinton will win IN by at least 3%.

We seem to have reached some kind of hiccup with the counting in IN, with 57% of Marion county (Bloomington and neighborhood), and 100% of Lake County (Gary...) not reporting for the last hour or more.

Curiously, if Obama narrows the margin in IN to less than 3.0%, then CNN will report it as 2% for Hillary!
 
  • #937
Ivan Seeking said:
Woohoo, not a good night for Clinton.
Dunno, she seems pretty optomistic to me!
We've come from behind, we've broken the tide and thanks to you it's full speed on to the White House!"
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/05/clinton-full-sp.html
 
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  • #938
She may yet have to eat those words!

Holy cow...are the numbers from Gary looking good for Obama...way better than I'd expected. Clinton's lead is now down to 2% and falling fast...real fast!
 
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  • #939
Re Russ: She needed a larger victory in IN and a smaller loss in NC. This may effectively be the end for Hillary - money and superdelegates.

Re Gokul, YES! Obama still has a chance.
 
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  • #940
The race in Indiana is over and Hillary won by 1.8%. The final numbers from Lake County actually went Hillary's way, just as predicted by David Schuster on MSNBC.
 
  • #941
Ivan Seeking said:
Re Russ: She needed a larger victory in IN and a smaller loss in NC. This may effectively be the end for Hillary - money and superdelegates.
No, I agree, I just thought it was funny. Hillary picked-up 10 delegates in PA and considered that a huge win, but tonight she lost 20. That really should be it for her.

I asked this before: does she have a plan?
 
  • #942
Clinton's decisive win in the primary last night proves once again that she is the clear choice for the Democrats. I expect Obama to drop out before the next round of primaries. The math is against him. Here are the numbers:

Delegates: Obama only has 1622, far short of the 2025 he would need to win.
Superdelegates: Obama only has 254, far short of Clinton's 273.
States: Of the last three primaries, It's Clinton 2, Obama 1. Even though he said Indiana was the tie breaker.
Popular vote: Clinton got 638,274 to Obama's 615,862. And this in Indiana alone.

Our next President is going to have to explain our defeats in Iraq as if they were victories. Who better than Clinton to take over that responsibility?
 
  • #943
Last night McCain also came one step closer to defeating his opponent, 'anyone but McCain'. He picked up an impressive upset victory with 74% of the vote in North Carolina, and 78% in Indiana. McShane McBlain McClane, spokesperson for the McCain campaign called on the republican party to unite. However, exit polls found little support for McCain. Voters said they were simply voting for anyone but 'anyone but McCain'. Sillary Clinten, spokesperson for the 'anyone but McCain' camp vowed to stay in the race until 2012.
 
  • #944
We've got an anyone but Hillary camp and an anyone but McCain camp. Conservatives get the bad deal this election.
 
  • #945
Based on everything that I'm hearing, less Clinton's rhetoric, it seems that this race is over:

OBAMA IS THE WINNER!

Did anyone catch Hillary's blooper the other night? She said ~ "No matter how this turns out, I will support the nominee for the Democratic Party" She was implicity acknowledging her defeat.
 
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