US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Ivan Seeking]

"I think it's very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president of the United States. I think that people should understand that I will be Hamas's worst nightmare... If Senator Obama is favored by Hamas, I think people can make judgments accordingly."

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/obama_speaks_ou.html

PASTOR JOHN HAGEE: John McCain will be a strong courageous and effective leader from the first day...

BILL MOYERS: That's John Hagee, pastor of a conservative mega church in Texas and one of television's most powerful prophets of the end times, anointing John McCain for the White House:

PASTOR JOHN HAGEE: To lead America into a bright and promising future. Ladies and gentleman ...

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03072008/watch.html

I think people can make judgments accordingly.

 

[Astronuc]

I heard a comment from a political scientist the other day stating that the three candidates: McCain, Clinton and Obama, got as far as they did precisely because they have the support of corporate/political interests and lobbyists. So don't expect much change in the election process or subsequent government operation, as of Jan 20, 2009.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I seems to me that Obama has gotten as far as he has because of internet donations. Where is the corporate money? Something like 90% of his money comes from donations less than $100...

 

[Poop-Loops]

90% of his donations or 90% of his total money came from donations that were <$100?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I believe it is 90% of his money, but either way, donations are limited to $2500 per person, so the two numbers shouldn't be that far apart. And it doesn't leave much room for bundlers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Hillary, who has obtained money the old fashioned way, and who was thought to be unbeatable due to the extensive money machine and network that the Clintons enjoy, has been outspent by as much as 5:1 by Obama.

 

[Poop-Loops]

Hillary, who has obtained money the old fashioned way, and who was thought to be unbeatable due to the extensive money machine and network that the Clintons enjoy, has been outspent by as much as 5:1 by Obama.

See see? Obama will just end up spending us into another Depression! I'm the only candidate that can win and be the best ever!

http://www.redstaterascals.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/hillary-bug-eyed-smile-thumb.jpg

I'm getting a pony!

 

[russ_watters]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/obama_speaks_ou.html


http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03072008/watch.html

I think people can make judgments accordingly.

Just to be clear, are you saying Hagee and Moyers are terrorists and if Obama were President he'd hunt them down and kill them?

 

[Poop-Loops]

I wish.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Just to be clear, are you saying Hagee and Moyers are terrorists and if Obama were President he'd hunt them down and kill them?

Yes.

 

[lisab]

Just to be clear, are you saying Hagee and Moyers are terrorists and if Obama were President he'd hunt them down and kill them?

Don't be foolish.

 

[russ_watters]

Yes.

Ok, thanks. Good to know. Do you have any references for that position of Obama's, though? It might be a tough platform for him to run on in the flyover states.

Don't be foolish.

Just wanted to be clear on the parallel Ivan was drawing. Otherwise, his post doesn't make any sense. It looked like an apples to pears comparison to me without that clarification he gave.

 

[Vanadium 50]

90% of his donations or 90% of his total money came from donations that were <$100?

According to the AP, 90% of his 1.5M donors and 45% of his $226M. Also, 20% of the money comes from people giving the maximum $2300. That works out to:

• 1.35M donors giving less than $100 and an average of $75.33.
• 130,000 donors giving at least $100, less than $2300, and an average of $606.84.
• 19,700 donors giving the maximum of $2300.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ok, thanks. Good to know. Do you have any references for that position of Obama's, though? It might be a tough platform for him to run on in the flyover states.

It is not appropriate for staff members to troll the forums. You should try having a little class sometime.

 

[chemisttree]

I believe it is 90% of his money, but either way, donations are limited to $2500 per person, so the two numbers shouldn't be that far apart. And it doesn't leave much room for bundlers.

That's how bundlers work. They don't themselves hand over the checks. They come in from the individual. Obama is not releasing the exact amounts his bundlers have raised and from whom.

From Obama's website:

This campaign is about building a different kind of politics. We don't take money from lobbyists or political action committees, and we're going to build a broad base of individual donors to ensure that this campaign answers to no one but the people. That starts with you. Make your donation online using the form below.

No lobbyists? A lie! He has 14 bundlers who are registered as lobbyists.
http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/02/06/bundlers-for-barack-obama-who-have-registered-as-federal-lobbyists/
http://www.citizen.org/documents/LobbyistsFinal.pdf
http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/index.cfm

The 90% number that Obama gave in the debate is wrong somewhat. (http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/was_obama_correct_to_say_90_of.html ) Over two thirds of money comes from donors that give more than $200. All the rest must give way less.

Obama seems to be going back on his word that he would opt into the Presidential Financing System. http://citizen.typepad.com/watchdog_blog/2008/02/will-obama-opt.html

 

[chemisttree]

Obama told the group he had a "fundamental disagreement" with Carter, who was rebuffed by Israeli leaders during a peace mission to the Middle East this week.

"We must not negotiate with a terrorist group intent on Israel's destruction," Obama said. "We should only sit down with Hamas if they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist, and abide by past agreements."

but later in the same story...

Obama also said he's willing to make diplomatic overtures to Iran even though has funded Hamas and other militant groups.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/16/obama_reassures_jewish_leaders_on_hamas_wright/

So I guess it's okay to meet with the true leaders of Hamas but not Hamas?

 

[chemisttree]

Obama appears to be bribing Superdelegates...

Obama leads Clinton in giving money to superdelegates

...In cases where superdelegates received money from Obama's Hope Fund but none from Clinton's PAC, Obama got the superdelegates' support 85 percent of the time. And in cases where superdelegates received money from Clinton's Hillpac but none from Obama's PAC, 75 percent backed Clinton.

Some superdelegates, such as Democratic Sens. Robert Byrd of West Virginia and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, received $10,000 from both Obama and Clinton. Neither senator has endorsed a presidential candidate.

The superdelegates include nearly 800 members of Congress, governors and Democratic Party leaders who could be the tiebreakers in the close race between Clinton and Obama. The study noted that many of them are the candidates' friends, colleagues or financial beneficiaries who have much closer ties to the candidates than regular delegates.

"And while it would be unseemly for the candidates to hand out thousands of dollars to primary voters, or to the delegates pledged to represent the will of those voters, elected officials who are superdelegates have received at least $904,200 from Obama and Clinton in the form of campaign contributions over the last three years," the study said, adding that both Clinton and Obama "will be calling in favors."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/31905.html

Oh yeah, that's change we can believe in...

 

[Astronuc]

No lobbyists? A lie! He has 14 bundlers who are registered as lobbyists.
http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/index.cfm

Or not. Apparently none of those 14 is currently a registered lobbyist. Last Lobby Report indicates the last year registered as a lobbyist.

      Name          State       Employer             Last Lobby Report 
Timothy M. Broas      MD     Winston & Strawn                2000
Frank Clark           IL     Commonwealth Edison             2000
Howard W. Gutman      MD     Williams & Connolly             1999
Scott Harris          DC     Harris Wiltshire and Grannis    2006
Allan J. Katz         FL     Akerman Senterfitt              2004
William T. Lake       DC     Wilmer Cutler Pickering 
                             Hale and Dorr                   2001
Robert S. Litt        MD     Arnold & Porter                 2002
Kenneth G. Lore       DC     Bingham McCutchen               2001
Thomas J. Perrelli    VA     Jenner and Block                2002
Thomas A. Reed        VA     Kirkpatrick & Lockhart 
                             Preston Gates Ellis LLP         2006
Paul N. Roth          NY     Schulte Roth & Zabel            2005
Alan Solomont         MA     Solomont Bailis Ventures        2006
Robert M. Sussman     DC     Latham & Watkins                2006
Tom E. Wheeler        DC     Core Capital Partners           2003

Compare those 14 with those for Clinton (22) and McCain (69).

 

[Art]

but later in the same story...

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/16/obama_reassures_jewish_leaders_on_hamas_wright/

So I guess it's okay to meet with the true leaders of Hamas but not Hamas?

Most of Hamas' funding comes from Saudi Arabia who western leaders meet with regularly.

David Aufhauser, general counsel to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, said in congressional testimony that despite some success in curbing terror financing, "by no means have we crossed the bridge of the issue of terrorist financing emanating from Saudi Arabia." Aufhauser noted that not only is it donating to Hamas not a crime in Saudi Arabia, but Hamas raises "enormous amounts of money" during the month of the Hajj alone -- a period so lucrative for Hamas that it sends its political director to the Kingdom.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2378

Hamas are a Sunni group, Iran is Shi'ite. You seem to be confusing Hamas with Hezbollah.

 

[Astronuc]

It would appear that Obama and/or the reporter confused Hamas with Hezbollah. There is also a Hezbollah (Hizballah al-Hejaz) group in Saudia Arabia and the Gulf States, but it is considered a terroist group by the Saudi government.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama appears to be bribing Superdelegates...
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/31905.html

Oh yeah, that's change we can believe in...

The donations cited appear to have been made before Obama even agreed to run. One was for the 2006 election, and the rest were only cited as:

And if that's the case, it's good news for Obama. Since 2005, his PAC has donated $710,900 to superdelegates,

What's more, when I tried to check the link for the list [at the bottom of the page that you linked], it was dead. So either provide evidence that this is a bribe or retract your statement. Intentionally posting misinformation merits 3 of the 10 points needed for a member to be banned.

The fact that people of like mind support each other isn't surprising.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

and McCain (69).

How about that.

 

[Astronuc]

Obama overtakes lead in superdelegates for first time
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90310310

WASHINGTON May 10, 2008, 07:07 pm ET · Barack Obama erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president.

Obama added superdelegates from Utah, Ohio and Arizona, as well as two from the Virgin Islands who had previously backed Clinton. The additions enabled Obama to surpass Clinton's total for the first time in the campaign. He had picked up nine endorsements Friday.

The milestone is important because Clinton would need to win over the superdelegates by a wide margin to claim the nomination. They are a group that Clinton owned before the first caucus, when she was able to cash in on the popularity of the Clinton brand among the party faithful.

Those party insiders, however, have been steadily streaming to Obama since he started posting wins in early voting states.

 

[mathwonk]

i thought it interesting that our poll showed as much optimism for huckabee as for mccain.

to me it is sad but illuminating that in this primary process i have gone from respecting all three currently viable candidates, to respecting only obama.

politicians who are losing, even courageous and intelligent ones, seem sadly susceptible to throwing mud and appealing to low instincts and bluntly offering money to buy voters.

obama to me is the only one who has shown integrity from first to last in this regard.

 

[mheslep]

i thought it interesting that our poll showed as much optimism for huckabee as for mccain.

to me it is sad but illuminating that in this primary process i have gone from respecting all three currently viable candidates, to respecting only obama.

politicians who are losing, even courageous and intelligent ones, seem sadly susceptible to throwing mud and appealing to low instincts and bluntly offering money to buy voters.

obama to me is the only one who has shown integrity from first to last in this regard.

Where did Senator McCain fail you in this regard?

 

[turbo]

Where did Senator McCain fail you in this regard?

I don't know what mathwonk thinks, but when McCain demonstrated that he is incapable of absorbing information on Iraqi factions and al Qaeda in Iraq, spoke of his willingness to stay 100 years in Iraq, spoke on his intention to extend the Bush administration's economic "policies", etc, he stopped looking like a decent alternative to Clinton. Then when he claimed Hamas was rooting for Obama, he lost all the respect that I had for him.

 

[mheslep]

Mathwonk?

 

[mheslep]

...Then when he claimed Hamas was rooting for Obama, he lost all the respect that I had for him.

Hamas leadership has stated they favor Obama and "hope he wins the election."

 

[mathwonk]

sorry to drop out. when senator mccain went to liberty university to court jerry falwell, he pretty much started a downward trend that to me is very sad.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

McCain lost me when he failed to reject Bush and his policies. If he treated Bush like Senator Webb does, I would still be open to considering McCain - the only way that I would vote for a Rep this fall would be if he completely rejected the Bush administration, all that they have done, and many of those who supported him, esp on the radical religious right.

I had a fairly high opinon of McCain - esp when he spoke out against the use of torture - but he has sold out to appease the conservative base. And beyond that, I have serious doubts about his competency at this point. The age question is completely legitimate as are questions about his temperament. Nor does he impress me as being particularly bright. In short, I don't trust him to make good decisions.

 

[lisab]

I don't know what mathwonk thinks, but when McCain demonstrated that he is incapable of absorbing information on Iraqi factions and al Qaeda in Iraq, spoke of his willingness to stay 100 years in Iraq, spoke on his intention to extend the Bush administration's economic "policies", etc, he stopped looking like a decent alternative to Clinton. Then when he claimed Hamas was rooting for Obama, he lost all the respect that I had for him.

I don't know if his slip-ups are 'senior moments,' but the president needs to know the difference between a Sunni and a Shi'ite, and Shi'ite from Shinola.

 

[mathwonk]

i love it!

lisab for speechwriter.

 

[OmCheeto]

It would appear that Obama and/or the reporter confused Hamas with Hezbollah. There is also a Hezbollah (Hizballah al-Hejaz) group in Saudia Arabia and the Gulf States, but it is considered a terroist group by the Saudi government.

I did the same thing while arguing with a young Jordanian last year at my other forum.
Because of that minor faux pas on my part, I would not hold that error against anyone.

 

[Art]

Here's a very funny video 'Hillary's Downfall' linked to from the BBC's Justin Webb's America Blog. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/justinwebb/



Warning contains strong language!

 

[BobG]

And beyond that, I have serious doubts about his competency at this point. The age question is completely legitimate as are questions about his temperament. Nor does he impress me as being particularly bright. In short, I don't trust him to make good decisions.

I think that's a fair concern. Before candidates even declared to run, I felt he'd already missed his only real shot. He could have endorsed someone younger (like Chuck Hagel) and still had a major impact on the race.

I still have a lot of respect for McCain (and maybe more likely to vote for him than Obama), but it's still fascinating to see how politicians change over time (or scary since everyone gets older?). Both McCain and Bill Clinton have shown signs that they've past their peak. Even if Hillary Clinton still had any chance of winning the nomination, Bill Clinton has reached the point where he wouldn't be a great asset even after the election.

No matter how sharp a person is at their peak, eventually his physical body is going to have an effect on his other abilities. Probably just a matter of genes, but I'm kind of surprised Bill Clinton seems to be getting older faster than McCain, especially considering the physical abuse McCain has gone through.