US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Astronuc]

New Hampshire:

Dem:
1. Obama (I am going to be optimistic, and I hope its a repeat of Iowa)
2. Clinton
3. Edwards (people might take a 2nd look based on the economy)

Rep:
1. Romney (A neighbor)
2. Thompson ( I think NHers might prefer this to a S. Baptist turned politician)
3. Huckabee (possibly McCain here, but I am hoping Huckabee rounds out the top 3).


Wyoming (R): (I agree with Bob and repeat my selection for NH).

1. Romney
2. Thompson
3. Huckabee

NH and WY are more independent/conservative minded.

 

[Astronuc]

Economy grows larger as political issue
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/01/04/candidates_economy/

How will the growing recession fears in the U.S. economy affect the presidential election? Nancy Marshall Genzer sampled some expert opinions.

Unemployment up to 5.0%, which surprised some economists.
Recession looms larger on job figures
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/01/04/jobs/

Not necessarily so, but certainly the economy will become a key issue in the presidential elections and debates, in addition to Iraq (and the larger war on terror) and imigration.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wyoming:

1). McCain
2). Chuckybee
3). Romney

 

[Gokul43201]

Wyoming is 11% Mormon, behind Utah, Idaho and Nevada. Wyoming also has more delegates than NH. I expect this to be an easy win for Romney, who already has the first 2 of 14 delegates. Also, these are the first delegates won by anyone this season, as the Iowa delegates do not get pledged until later. However, the candidates and the press have essentially ignored WY. I think Romney's sons and Hunter's wife are there, campaigning for them.

Late Edit: Romney (~50%) has won Wyoming. Hunter and Thompson (~20% each) are fighting* for second.

* Yeah, right!

 

[Astronuc]

Well I heard Thompson tonight say that he didn't think that US foreign policy was aggressive. Well the US has military forces engaged in combat in two countries and has threatened a third. That seems pretty aggressive to me. Bush is just blatantly belligerent.

 

[Gokul43201]

Wyoming Results:
1. Romney 67%
2. Thompson 25%
3. Hunter 8%

Points Table:

            Wyoming      Total
Astronuc       4          13       
BobG           4          12
Gokul          3          11
Ivan           1          11
Evo                       9  
Maxwell                   8
Coin                      7

Next up: New Hampshire.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wyoming is 11% Mormon, behind Utah, Idaho and Nevada. Wyoming also has more delegates than NH. I expect this to be an easy win for Romney, who already has the first 2 of 14 delegates. Also, these are the first delegates won by anyone this season, as the Iowa delegates do not get pledged until later. However, the candidates and the press have essentially ignored WY. I think Romney's sons and Hunter's wife are there, campaigning for them.

Late Edit: Romney (~50%) has won Wyoming. Hunter and Thompson (~20% each) are fighting* for second.

* Yeah, right!

Why did you expect Romney to win? Eleven percent isn't a terribly large percentage of voters; esp considering that most of the state is probably Rep.

 

[Gokul43201]

Odds are that most people have a neighbor or a good friend or a family member that is Mormon. It significantly reduces the kind of anti-Mormon bias that is pretty strong in other states.

Also, Romney had some key endorsements there, and two of his sons kept campaigning for him till yesterday. During this last month, Romney's sons and Hunter's wife were the only active campaigners in WY.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Odds are that most people have a neighbor or a good friend or a family member that is Mormon. It significantly reduces the kind of anti-Mormon bias that is pretty strong in other states.

Hmmm, good point. And it didn't even occur to me to check the population of Mormons in the state - didn't think there were any to speak of.

Also, Romney had some key endorsements there, and two of his sons kept campaigning for him till yesterday. During this last month, Romney's sons and Hunter's wife were the only active campaigners in WY.

I did see that.

Given that they went 69% Bush in 04, I thought that McCains dogged support of the surge in Iraq would count heavily.

 

[BobG]

Given that they went 69% Bush in 04, I thought that McCains dogged support of the surge in Iraq would count heavily.

The whole point of moving the caucus up was to get some personal attention from the candidates. Being dissed completely is insulting and makes the whole state look like a loser.

Given that, it was a cinch that only candidate that put up a real campaign would win. Thompson and Hunter actually made personal appearances there. I just figured Hunter's so low that he'd be beaten by the few voting for the 'best' candidate regardless of whether they campaigned in Iowa or not. Guess I was wrong. They were really passionate about becoming the next Iowa.

I think there's going to be some huge changes in the primary/caucus process next Presidential election. By Jan 16, quite a few are going to feel a lot of anger over the parties screwing up the process in such an important election. This could be the last time Iowa and New Hampshire go first for quite a while.

On the other hand, a lot of anger at the Democratic and Republican parties could make a Bloomberg run seem a lot more viable.

 

[Astronuc]

The whole point of moving the caucus up was to get some personal attention from the candidates. Being dissed completely is insulting and makes the whole state look like a loser.

Given that, it was a cinch that only candidate that put up a real campaign would win. Thompson and Hunter actually made personal appearances there. I just figured Hunter's so low that he'd be beaten by the few voting for the 'best' candidate regardless of whether they campaigned in Iowa or not. Guess I was wrong. They were really passionate about becoming the next Iowa.

I think there's going to be some huge changes in the primary/caucus process next Presidential election. By Jan 16, quite a few are going to feel a lot of anger over the parties screwing up the process in such an important election. This could be the last time Iowa and New Hampshire go first for quite a while.

Well, I heard that Iowa would move their primary into the year before if other states move their primaries/caucuses before their caucuses!

I think any potential presidential candidate needs to find time to visit each state for a face to face - and talk directly to the people - without intermediaries, and without staged or pre-arranged questions. If someone wants to represent all Americans, then he or she better listen and answer the peoples' questions.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

NH

1). McCain
2). Romney
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

 

[Gokul43201]

NH

1). McCain
2). Romney
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

Ditto!

Any more predictions for NH? Less than half a day to go folks!

Edit: What Iowa's done for Obama: http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119976546847474153-SfjGAnfKNfGb2nYzWGayUorHqNk_20080207.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

 

[Art]

NH

1). Romney
2). McCain
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

 

[Evo]

I'm going with Ivan's picks.

1). McCain
2). Romney
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

 

[Coin]

My NH predictions:

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

 

[Gokul43201]

Predictions for NH will be closed in 4 hours (1900ET). Henceforth, let's try and get predictions in before midnight, the night before the primary begins (local time).

So far we've got NH predictions from Bob, Astro, Ivan, Gokul, Evo, Coin and Art.

 

[Beeza]

If the amount of signs on the side of the road is proportional to votes, then Hillary and Ronnie Paul.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It looks like a huge turnout in NH. Some precincts have requested extra ballots as they were running low.

One report described how young people were lined up outside and around the building just to register to vote.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Bill Clinton attacked the Obama "fairy tale" today.

It appears that the Clintons are getting desperate.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Most polls have already closed. You can follow the results here:
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

 

[Gokul43201]

10% reporting - Clinton has a small lead over Obama.

Reps: McCain >> Romney >> Huckabee

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN projects McCain the winner.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

PS: Exit polls from CNN had Obama with 1% more than Clinton.

Clinton has taken a disturbing early lead.

 

[mheslep]

Clinton has taken a disturbing early lead.

Doesn't matter. Sen. Obama is going to win easily, at least 5 points. G'night.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I just heard an interesting stat on CNN. Of women voters who only today decided who they would support, by a ten percent margin, Hillary beat Obama after she cried.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Whoops, this is the page that I meant to link.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH

 

[Astronuc]

I was listening to NPR this morning, and the first town to vote, Dicksville, NH, with 17 votes had a majority for Obama.

The Dem race is close, with Clinton and Obama (1 and 2) much closer than Iowa.

Apparently McCain spent a lot of time in NH and that shows, but Romney is not too far behind. Huckabee is relatively a distant third. Giuliani back there in fourth, with Paul fifth, and both well ahead of Thompson.


I think it may come down to Clinton vs Obama, and Romney vs Huckabee, but let's see.


Oh Nuts! We still have 10 months to go.

 

[physicsbhelp]

help!

 

[physicsbhelp]

i like obama and giuliani to vs. each other.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Clinton won.

 

[gravenewworld]

As an Independent, I will absolutely NOT vote for Hillary. The candidate that sways the independent vote in this election will win. 43% of independents in NH voted for Obama compared to only 31% for Hillary (that voted Dem), Independents simply don't like Hillary. I'd much rather vote for a moderate Republican that isn't a religious psychopath like McCain.

Hillary is not an electable candidate and will get thrashed if she ever makes it to the Presidential election.

 

[Astronuc]

Clinton won.

Well, not by much. At 94% of precincts in, Clinton has 39% vs Obama at 37%, and both apparently get the same number of delegates (to the national convention I guess). It's a small win for Clinton, and she didn't end up third. I wonder if her campaign or the media will trumpet this as a comeback like Bill. I hope not.

Romney is a strong second to McCain.

Interestingly, tonight I heard Gov. Spitzer (NY) pushing for Clinton (of course, not surprise there), and Gov. Duval Patrick (MA) was favoring Obama.

California, Texas and Florida will be interesting for both parties, and so will Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Lots of electoral votes in those states.

 

[Gokul43201]

New Hampshire Results:
Dem:
1. Clinton 39%
2. Obama 37%
3. Edwards 17%

Rep:
1. McCain 37%
2. Romney 32%
3. Huckabee 11%

Points Table:

               NH        Total
Gokul          10         21
Ivan           10         21
BobG           8          20
Astronuc       6          19 
Evo            10         19  
Coin           8          15
Art            8          8
Maxwell                   8

Next up: Michigan Primary (Jan 15)

 

[Gokul43201]

I wonder if her campaign or the media will trumpet this as a comeback like Bill. I hope not.

It's all they've been doing!