What are the implications of time travel in popular culture?

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In summary: I'm glad to see that people are interested in this topic, but I don't think John's posts should be taken too seriously.
  • #106
Nothing he says makes any sense and he appears to be contradicting himself. For example, here he is explaining his "mission".

On my worldline, it is known that the 5100 series is capable of reading all the IBM code written before the widespread use of APL and Basic. Unfortunately, there are none left that anyone can find on my world line.
Ok, NO 5100's exist in 2036.

You said you are confused by the 5100 story. I will explain further. In 2036, it was discovered (or at least known after testing) that the 5100 computer was capable of reading and changing all of the legacy code written by IBM before the release of that system and still be able to create new code in APL and basic
but they were able to do testing with them

That is the reason we need it in 2036. However, IBM never published that information because it would have probably destroyed a large part of their business infrastructure in the early 70s. In fact, I would bet the engineers were probably told to keep their mouth's shut.
even though no one knew about it.

But wait! In the first paragraph he said "on my worldline, it is KNOWN that the 5100 series is capable of reading all the IBM code...

Am I missing something here?
 
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  • #107
Ah...quotes:

"Yes, I think the New World Order idea tried to establish itself. I would consider them the combination of the old U.S. federal system, Europe, Canada and Australia."

Good observation.
Yeah, John Titor said a lot of kookie stuff.
I would be more interested in where he eventually got the computer from, and who tested it for use prior to it being "tweaked" by his Grandfather.
Did we send any of these computers overseas?




"A boss dj aint nothin but a man."
bradley- SUBLIME
 
  • #108
Another problem I have with his story is that he had to go back to 1975 and have his grandfather "specially tweak" the 5100 in order for the people in 2036 to fix a Unix problem.

The first "leg" of my trip was from 2036 to 1975. After two VGL checks, the divergence was estimated at about 2.5% (from my 2036). I was "sent" to get an IBM computer system called the 5100. It was one the first portable computers made and it has the ability to read the older IBM programming languages in addition to APL and Basic. We need they system to "debug" various legacy computer programs in 2036. UNIX has a problem in 2038.
As you are probably aware, UNIX will have a timeout error in 2038 and many of the mainframe systems that ran a large part of the infrastructure were based on very old IBM computer code. The 5100 has the ability to easily translate between the old IBM code, APL, BASIC and (with a few tweaks in 1975) UNIX. I do believe that "your" UNIX will also have a problem in 2038. I don't think that's a secret but maybe someone should put a 5100 aside for thirty years or so.
It is a common misconception that UNIX is IBM.

Ok, my memory could be failing me here, but since I worked for that company whose labs invented Unix back in 1969 (it was NOT IBM). I am wondering how his grandfather would have had access to UNIX source code back then.

But maybe I am misunderstanding?
 
  • #109
They could've also tried tracing his IP address, on the forums he visited. Research and a bit of Social engineering may have gotten some quality proof of his identity.
 
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  • #110
Originally posted by The_Professional
They could've also tried tracing his IP address, on the forums he visited. Research and a bit of social engineering may have gotten some quality proof of his identity.
Yes, I doubt he was spoofing his address, a very good point.
 
  • #111
Michael Pennington another John Titor?

I wonder if this fascinating story has influenced a certain Michael Pennington who makes some very far fetched claims about his life after his death and he uses the internet in the same way. He got a big following on the forum he was posting and its one of the largest threads I have ever seen but things got ****ty with people arguing and it died out. I typed in 'michael pennington ghost forum' in Google and there is loads of stuff about him on a lot of forums.

The orginal one is at www.birminghamuk.com/forum but there's many others. The story seems to follow the same pattern as John Titors and he answered questions and used a computer to communicate with people and other spirits.

There even appears to be his own page but its far from finished as we read much more of the story on the forums.

http://www.geocities.com/michaelpennington1971/
 
  • #112
I don't have time to read this whole thread right now. I skimmed through it and didn't see anything about this, but if it is a repost, I apologize.

I stumbled across this while researching the Titor story. It is a fantasy role playing game (written before Titor's posts) with a remarkably similar story line to Titor's predictions. I found it interesting. I think this confirms that this was all a hoax. An elaborate and well thought out hoax, but still a hoax. Thoughts?

http://www.spearweasel.com/rpg/twheel/darkfutr.htm
 
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  • #113
The classical theories can't be quite right with regards to absolute determinism, as evidenced by the presence of Heisenberg uncertainty. Matter-energy in the universe, is subject to fluctuations, and a particle's position/momentum cannot be predicted precisely. Hence, quantum theory enters the picture in order to "quantify" the uncertainty. There is yet to be a full quantum theory of gravity, but string theory appears to be making progress towards that goal.

According to Stephen Hawking, all of the events on a worldline have a timelike connection to each other. A worldline is defined as a continuous stream of events occurring to a physical object. Basically, the worldine of an object is a timelike curve/path in space-time.

Wormholes: Theoretically speaking, by going through a wormhole, an object can return to an event a second time. A wormhole is a nontrivial connection through curved space-time. A shortcut that allows interstellar travel, and even "time" travel.

All sorts of time paradoxes can be envisioned via time travel scenarios. Now if reverse time travel becomes possible in our future, why aren't we flooded with tourists and historians FROM the future?

Back to the topic, if everything is information, processed by a gigantic multiverse computer simulation, then by traveling backwards in time, just the presence of our atoms starts a chain of cause and effect that drastically alters the future events, creating a new timeline.

This "John Titor" tale/delusion is a strange one. He mentioned something about "microsingularities"? ...The term "microsingularity" appears to be pure Star Trek jargon.

Stephen Hawking did write about miniature black holes though!

And here is a link explaining how miniature black holes could be created in a particle accelerator:

Scientists Expect To "See" Miniature Black Holes


http://www.spacedaily.com/news/blackhole-01b.html


"If certain theories of nature are correct, then black holes would be produced in high-energy collisions of particles in particle accelerators," said Giddings. These theories go by the generic name of "TeV-scale gravity."

 
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  • #114
Titor was a fake...I'll find my reasons sometime soon, but you can look at timetravelforum.tk for me...;)
 
  • #115
Russell E. Rierson said:
This "John Titor" tale/delusion is a strange one. He mentioned something about "microsingularities"? ...The term "microsingularity" appears to be pure Star Trek jargon.

Star trek, since it's inception has always been based on science fact, not fiction. By fact obviously I mean theory.

There is theory in place for everything ever discussed on star trek, and presumably mentioned by Titor. It has been shown time and time again by various methods and theories that time travel is possible, albeit unpractical at present.. To say with absolute certainty that he is fraud is, IMO a bad choice.

I am not suggesting that it could be said with any certainty that he is NOT a fraud, but to absolutely rule out either would be wrong. In the computer field researchers discover/learn as much each year as the previous ten. Taking this factoid and applying it to quantum mechanics and time travel theory would then show that clearly at present we simply do not have enough information to make a definate choice whether Titor is legit or not.

It is human nature to disbelieve, however, just look at the histories of all great theorists: Galileo, Newton, Einstein, Tesla, etc.. at one point they were all thought to be crazy/delusional. ;)

Also, not being able to find information on "microsingularities" is not surprising, since he clearly stated that they would be discovered during 'high energy experiments' at CERN.. likely referring to their new particle accellerator, which isn't slated to be operational until 2007.
 
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  • #116
Incidentally...

I know there were at one point a number of people wondering what this mystical problem with unix is. This Page explains what the problem is and a sufficient patch..

Essentially it's similar to the Y2K bug, since the unix time-code will expire Jan 19th 2038... the only thing that seems strange about this aspect of the story is then:

Why, since there would be at least a little over a year left, are they unable to correct the problem without the use of the IBM 5100? That obviously raises other questions...
 
  • #117
Star trek, since it's inception has always been based on science fact, not fiction. By fact obviously I mean theory.

You're absolutely correct on that. From what I have heard, Roddenberry consulted extensively with physicists. He was no slacker on his research, even though occasionally the laws of science were bent to fit a good plot.


Here's some enjoyable reading on that for anyone who is interested:
http://ssdoo.gsfc.nasa.gov/education/just_for_fun/startrek.html

I have to say I enjoyed the John Titor tales, but I am the gullible sort :wink:
 
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  • #118
oog said:
Star trek, since it's inception has always been based on science fact, not fiction. By fact obviously I mean theory.

There is theory in place for everything ever discussed on star trek, and presumably mentioned by Titor. It has been shown time and time again by various methods and theories that time travel is possible, albeit unpractical at present.. To say with absolute certainty that he is fraud is, IMO a bad choice.
Not quite. I'm a proud owner of the Star Trek TNG Technical Manual and though it makes fascinating reading, it is not based on real science. As a matter of fact, it even includes a disclaimer in the preface meant for the writers: don't see this manual as a limit to your creativity.

It also discusses the concept of "technobabble." When the writers don't know what technobabble to insert into a specific situation, they just write the word "tech" and someone fills in the babble later. Yes, it really is true: the vast majority of what they say is utterly meaningless.

As for time travel itself - no, it isn't even theoretically possible. It is specifically prohibited by the laws of physics.
 
  • #119
oog said:
Incidentally...

I know there were at one point a number of people wondering what this mystical problem with unix is. This Page explains what the problem is and a sufficient patch..

Essentially it's similar to the Y2K bug, since the unix time-code will expire Jan 19th 2038... the only thing that seems strange about this aspect of the story is then:

Why, since there would be at least a little over a year left, are they unable to correct the problem without the use of the IBM 5100? That obviously raises other questions...
It's not actually a bug but a limitation that was always known would have to be dealt with and is not really a large concern.

"This is only limited to UNIX systems that use a 32-bit signed
time_t . As such its not applicable to all UNIX systems, and
not limited only to UNIX systems.
Other systems using a 32-bit signed time_t have similar problems,
the exact problem date being determined when their time epoch
starts."

http://www.opengroup.org/platform/ballots/p2000.1-recirc

"the 2038 problem does NOT need massive changes to APIs;
in fact, it can be dealt with without ANY changes to APIs, though with
a few minor changes to implementations, and many changes to programs
that don't use the APIs. Just specify time_t to be at least 40 bits;
it is an opaque integer type, so all conforming programs will
continue to work, won't they? :-)"

http://www.opengroup.org/platform/single_unix_specification/show_mail.tpl?source=L&listname=austin-group-l&id=2158

Most systems using 32 bit have already been replaced with 64 bit.

Titor's story is plagued with nonsense and inconsistencies. It only takes a tiny bit of commonsense to see it for what it is, a story.

Russ, great post. I'm a Star Trek Next Generation Fan, and also was a fan of the original show (yes, I watched it when it was originally on). What I wouldn't give for a replicator! or a holodeck! :-p A friend of mine likes to point out all of the serious flaws with the "physics", he ruined it for me. :frown:
 
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  • #120
russ_watters said:
As for time travel itself - no, it isn't even theoretically possible. It is specifically prohibited by the laws of physics.


I agree with everything else that you said but the latest that I have read says that there may be ways to get around this limitation. You might check in with Kaku for starters. My understanding is that we don't know if time travel will ever be possible; at least in principle. We used to think not but now we're not sure. If it is possible it may never be practical due to the energy requirements.

Did you mean this as an opinion?
 
  • #121
Ivan Seeking said:
Did you mean this as an opinion?
Well - there are some QM implications on time travel, but in my opinion (there it is), that's not relevant to the question since humans don't live in a quantum-scale world.
Russ, great post. I'm a Star Trek Next Generation Fan, and also was a fan of the original show (yes, I watched it when it was originally on). What I wouldn't give for a replicator! or a holodeck! A friend of mine likes to point out all of the serious flaws with the "physics", he ruined it for me.
Evo, no doubt you have noticed that I'm a real stickler for scientific accuracy - I hated "Armageddon" and refuse to see "The Core," but I'm still a Star Trek fan. What gets me is when people get their science from the media and don't realize it isn't science.

Also, maybe, there can be a distinciton between "science fiction" and "science fantasy." Like with James Bond - the things he does aren't possible, but that's ok: He's James Bond. "Armageddon" and "The Core" both had science advisors and both claimed to be true to science in their characterizations of it.
 
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  • #122
russ_watters said:
What gets me is when people get their science from the media and don't realize it isn't science.
Actually it's kind of scary how many people's knowledge of science is primarily based on the media.

russ_watters said:
"Armageddon" and "The Core" both had science advisors and both claimed to be true to science in their characterizations of it.
Oh come on Russ, you don't believe in the scientific accuracy of those two fine movies? :wink: (I haven't seen either one)
 
  • #123
russ_watters said:
Well - there are some QM implications on time travel, but in my opinion (there it is), that's not relevant to the question since humans don't live in a quantum-scale world.

The possiblities are not limited to quantum sized objects. From what I have read in sources like The Future of Spacetime, the more likely limitation is energy. There is also one solution to the grandfather paradox that seems to resolve the paradox but still allows for time travel.
 
  • #124
Ivan, are you familiar with Ronald Mallett? I saw a documentary about his research into time travel on a special that TLC did back in December. It was very interesting. For the first time I started thinking this could be a form of "time travel" that might work, but it is not the type of time travel that we are familiar with from books and films. Power is the main drawback people see to this working.

Basically here is the gist of what he's thinking, this from an article I will also post a link to.

Why you haven't met someone from the future

However, putting Ronald's theory into practice presents plenty of problems. For example, the temperature of the ring would have to be close to absolute zero (-273°C), so humans would find it difficult to use. It would also be impossible to travel back to a time before the machine was switched on. This explains why people from the future haven't visited us - we are yet to build a time machine for them to exit from.

Ronald hopes that travellers from the future may be able to overcome these difficulties and use the rings of light that we construct today as portals to our time.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/wormholes/default.htm

This is an excerpt from a "layman's explanation" of Mallet's paper.

Nearly 50 years later, Mallett may be on the verge of building the world's first operative "time machine," though it will bear little relation to that of Wells, or to the DeLorean sports car of the movie Back to the Future, or the Tardis of Dr. Who or any of the other hundreds of time traveling mechanisms that have been imagined since Wells first took a crack at it.

Mallett's machine, as laid out in his May 2000 paper in Physics Letters entitled "Weak gravitational field of the electromagnetic radiation in a ring laser," is based on Einstein's formulation that light and matter are both forms of energy.

We know that matter can bend space-time and according to Einstein's theory, matter and light are both forms of energy. So why can't light bend space-time?

This fall, with UConn colleague Dr. Chandra Raychoudri, Mallett will begin work on building a "ring laser"--basically, a device that will create a circulating light beam, perhaps within a photonic crystal that will bend the light's trajectory and slow it down.

Then, a neutron particle will be sent into the space in the center of the beam. In short, the beam--perhaps two beams in one model, with the light traveling in opposite directions--is expected to twist the space-time inside the circle into a loop.

Think of a spoon stirring thick gravy in a pot and creating a vortex, only the vortex in this case is the fabric of space-time twisting, with past, present and future, circling one another so that the future precedes the past.
Then--and while this might not seem very exciting--a neutron, a small particle of matter--will be sent into the center of the beam. If its spin is affected, then it is being affected by warped space-time.

In a further experiment that Mallett has considered, two identical samples of a radioactive substance could be put into the center of the ring, one going in the direction of the beam. The other in the opposite direction. Since radioactivity decays at a measurable rate, it would be possible to measure, in effect, the time that both particles had experienced within the beam. If the time proves to be different, then time will have been measurably altered.

Eventually, says Mallett, "what would be neat is if you saw another neutron in there that you hadn't introduced yet." In essence, the same neutron "visiting itself from the future."

So you've moved a neutron. So what?

What Mallett will have shown--if it works--is that the fabric of time itself can be altered by light, and a thing can be moved into the past. If it works for a neutron, in theory, it would work for you and me.

http://www.walterzeichner.com/thezfiles/timetravel.html

Mallett's paper "Weak gravitational field of the electromagnetic radiation in a ring laser"

http://temporology.bio.msu.ru/EREPORTS/mallett.pdf
 
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  • #125
Over the years I have read about perhaps a dozen designs or concepts that might in principle at least be capable of causing time travel [as we think of it]. I am pretty sure that I have seen this one before.

There is an interesting proof that potentially resolves at least one variation of the grandfather paradox. I don't know how the mathematical proof is done - I don't even know if I could understand it - but it can apparently be shown that by using billiard balls to recreate the paradox, nature does force a real and non-paradoxical solution. First a few simple steps are needed. The entrance to a time machine is place in the corner pocket with the exit from the machine at the side pocket. Keeping in mind the core problem with the grandfather paradox, a billiard ball is placed at the corner most distant from the time machine's entrance. The ball is hit in a straight line so that it enters the time machine, passes through, and emerges from the side pocket a few moments ealier; just in time to hit itself thus preventing its entry into the machine - i.e. into the corner pocket. Since if the ball never went into the corner it can't emerge from the side pocket to deflect its own path, the essence of the grandfather paradox is duplicated. It turns out that the ball can be made to interfere with itself but not sufficiently so as to cause the ball to miss the corner pocket. In other words, the path can be deflected but not enough to create a paradox. Something within this thought experiment implicitly prevents a genuine paradox from ever occurring.
 
  • #126
Ivan Seeking said:
Over the years I have read about perhaps a dozen designs or concepts that might in principle at least be capable of causing time travel [as we think of it]. I am pretty sure that I have seen this one before.
This one is different. It's not time travel as we think of it. It's opening a portal now that in the future someone could send something back to us, even if it is only a neutron. Time travel for humans may never be possible, but this concept of opening a portal is intriguing. We ourselves could not use it.
 
  • #127
Ivan Seeking said:
Since if the ball never went into the corner it can't emerge from the side pocket to deflect its own path, the essence of the grandfather paradox is duplicated. It turns out that the ball can be made to interfere with itself but not sufficiently so as to cause the ball to miss the corner pocket. In other words, the path can be deflected but not enough to create a paradox. Something within this thought experiment implicitly prevents a genuine paradox from ever occurring.

So does this prove that God does not play pool with the universe, either? :wink:
 
  • #128
Since time is relative ... it remains relative to we human beings.

Time is a construct of the human psyche. The universe itself keeps no time. The transition of energy signals via Static Photon Vibration Theory across regions of 'flat' space-time (that account for 99% of the universe) is instantaneous. No time passes for something traveling at light speed.

Time is our own phenomenon. God is probably laughing Himself silly watching us play around with this bizarre concept!

Static Photon Vibration ... www.photonoceab.tk[/URL]

Makes sense.
 
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  • #129
I haven't forgotten about this guy, so I just wanted to remind all of you.

It is interesting how world events are unfolding isn't it? Bush is completely screwing up our reputation around the world, skirting the geneva convention, and basically going off the deep end. Al Gore is the 2nd person this week to call bush a "bungling idiot" and I wholeheartedly agree. But I digress. I'm not on my political soapbox, but I feel that things are eerily ringing with truth to some of the things Titor said.

He said that right around the time of election time 2004 the chaos would begin. He said that it will be a civil conflict where our personal rights would be taken from us under the guise of protection. And he asked us "how many civil liberties would you be willing to sacrifice in the name of safety?".

Bush already presented that bill giving police and government agencies more freedom to search and sieze without as much probable cause. And people who were 9-11 suspects were held for months without due process. But I can see the public feeding from the innate fears that the government is breeeding. The color coded alert system, homeland security. Now Abu Gharabi prisoners being mistreated. Titor referenced the Waco incident, and inferred that the government covered up something.

Now while I'm not building a bunker in South America just yet, the vision Titor presented-which when I first read it sounded impossible, is starting to seem a lot more plausible with the direction Bush has been taking. Would you give up your right to due process in the name of ferretting out potential terrorists? Would you allow yourself to be questioned, your house to be ransacked, if only by mistake, so that potential terrorist cells could be found and prevented? I for one, would not. The day that happens... Well all I can say is "Ohhhh Cananda...".

Was Titor ever fully discredited? I don't believe so. Like I said, I'm not looking for 5 people within a 100 miles of me who I can trust with my life- but I will rest a lot easier when bush is out of office and there aren't quite so many similarities between the titor predictions and reality.
 
  • #130
Titor said that Bush is re-elected in 2004, or perhaps I assumed it was Bush. Perhaps Kerry is the one that Titor says causes the war?

"Your enemy was in the cities. Was the President in 2005 also on the enemy side? How did you feel personally about the President then?
The President or "leader" in 2005 I believe tried desperately to be the next Lincoln and hold the country together but many of their policies drove a larger wedge into the Bill of Rights."

Also, the stuff Titor was spewing has all been said before by all too many. It's nothing new, so I wouldn't worry about it.

Here is a mistake Titor made that has already been disproved.

"13. We don't know what's on Mars yet."

I guess he didn't know about the Mars rovers that were due to land on Mars in 2004. :biggrin:
 
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  • #131
From reading into a great deal of what this alledged time traveller had to say, I got the gist he just about covered all the bases, as well as being pretty vague on details at the same time.

This is an old trick spawned by the earliest 'so-called' spiritual mediums.

Anyone with a slice of home-cooked intelligence could banter on about events that are going to happen henceforth without committing themselves to precise details.

For example, if I were to say that in the year 2007 there is going to be a bad earthquake on the Pacific Rim ... then there is a pretty safe bet that my prediction will be borne out. This is not because I have traveled back from the future to share my historical wisdoms, it is simply because I already know the Pacific Rim area (which covers 1000s of miles) is prone to volcanism and quake activity, and the likelihood of there being an event is something like 1 in every so many years.

This hypothesis, coupled with the fact that no one will refute, dispute or challenge it if it doesn't occur in 2007, all leads to me looking pretty clued up on the predictions market.

www.photonocean.tk[/URL]
 
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  • #132
he was probably just a man who had nothing better to do with his time...(i didnt read all of what he said..but if he was on some big sanctioned time travel mission why did he stay for 4 months to socialize?)
..he made predictions just specific enough so that in the near future we could fit events in for the purpose of convincing ourselves that truth actually lied behind what he said...all the same ill be happier when this year is over and nothing like a civil war is starting up...and right now I am just happy I am Canadian :wink:
 
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  • #133
I don't understand why people believe the BS. Come on seriously, a guy travels from the future to spend his time posting on an internet forum, that is really believable. Couldn't he do something more productive? Also his claim that Russia will nuke China and the US is extremely hard to believe. I find it hard to believe that Russia and its citizens are willing to commit suicide. Russia funding a war? LOL That country's economy has been in the toilet for years, what will they arm their soldiers with sticks? Terrorism is a much more serious threat to the US and other nations than Russia. Yes his posts are entertaining but seriously people have been watching too many movies.
 
  • #134
i think time traveling will never be possible... why? because knowing the human sense of stupidity, someone would've already screw things up "returning" to the past and altering it.. or any sort of error.
 
  • #135
John Titor Group

Hey If your interested in John Titor you might want to join my yahoo group: -
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/John_Titor_UK/
theres loads of links and pictures for you to check out and a message board.
 
  • #136
bumping this because.. well it's good for site traffic
 
  • #137
Hey there stranger. :biggrin:
 
  • #138
Most of us don't know what is on Mars yet. We have been shown what the cameras see, once they have been screened. In the first images, I saw plenty of things in the sky, then that stopped. I have seen before and after depressions in the ground that look like, oh foot prints, shall we say? I don't think that people are walking around on Mars, I think they are in the American Southwest, at least one of the rovers, looks to be near the Henry Mountains.

In the last two weeks, the government currently in power has stated that they might postpone the election if there are terrorist acts at the time of the conventions. President Bush is warning that there are going to be anarchists at the Republican convention. I think that the current government is going to have a hard time letting go, in fact, I don't think they will let go, even if they are voted out of office. I think this scenario is setting up exactly as described.
 
  • #139
Oyéah said:
Most of us don't know what is on Mars yet. We have been shown what the cameras see, once they have been screened. In the first images, I saw plenty of things in the sky, then that stopped. I have seen before and after depressions in the ground that look like, oh foot prints, shall we say? I don't think that people are walking around on Mars, I think they are in the American Southwest, at least one of the rovers, looks to be near the Henry Mountains.
:rolleyes:

Oyéah said:
In the last two weeks, the government currently in power has stated that they might postpone the election if there are terrorist acts at the time of the conventions. President Bush is warning that there are going to be anarchists at the Republican convention. I think that the current government is going to have a hard time letting go, in fact, I don't think they will let go, even if they are voted out of office. I think this scenario is setting up exactly as described.
Titor said that there would be a major Waco, TX like event every month in 2004 before the November elections. Let's see, this is the 7th month and so far, Titor has struck out 7 times in a row. The Titor thing was a hoax, and a very poor one at that.
 
  • #140
Evo said:
:rolleyes:

Titor said that there would be a major Waco, TX like event every month in 2004 before the November elections. Let's see, this is the 7th month and so far, Titor has struck out 7 times in a row. The Titor thing was a hoax, and a very poor one at that.


Well, unless you count the goings-on in Iraq. How many civilians died at Waco? And how many Iraqi civilians have died each month so far in 2004?
 

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