What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[turbo]

If one is a carrier pilot, and one sits ready to do a run - that's not a test. That is doing one's job - a job for which one signed up.

Yes, and McCain is making a leap that is above his (then) pay-grade. Launching air-strikes on a base under construction would not necessarily have led to nuclear warfare. McCain and the other fighter/bomber pilots had targets, yes, but those target were not nuclear-tipped missiles, nor would their planes have been carrying nuclear weapons. If the US wanted to open that can of worms, they would have used SAC, not the Navy. This GOP campaign (and indeed the fluff surrounding McCain for years) is liberally salted with historical revisionism.

 

[LowlyPion]

If one is a carrier pilot, and one sits ready to do a run - that's not a test. That is doing one's job - a job for which one signed up.

The true test is avoiding military conflict through diplomacy. Kennedy passed that test.

McCain's claim has no merit in the context of the office of president.

What again were his choices?

Drop bombs or court marshal?

How Presidential is the life of any grunt then?

 

[Astronuc]

Palin says Obama's policies could lead to crises
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_el_pr/palin

Palin is one to talk. She's a crisis in the making as VP.

_Advancing the idea of invading Pakistan without that government's permission. Obama has said he would authorize an attack if the whereabouts of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden were known and Pakistan's government were unable or unwilling to go after him.
. . . .

Ummm - I don't think Palin has been paying attention. US troops have already crossed into Pakistan without permission in order to attack Taliban/al-Qaida targets.

If bin Laden is in Pakistan, how would Palin propose to 'get him', which has been one of Bush's principle goal? How would McCain 'get' bin Laden?

 

[turbo]

McCain is still bombarding the 2nd congressional district in Maine with negative ads, mailers, etc. He is running one new TV ad in which he says "The last 8 years haven't worked very well, have they?" and then asking for votes because he's going to make things better. No explanation how, just the unsubstantiated claim.

 

[phoenixy]

The Palin campaign asks its neighbor for cash.

The neighbor is Russia.

http://www.undispatch.com/archives/2008/10/russian_un_amba_1.php

 

[Count Iblis]

Pew gives an even wider lead for Obama:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1000/obama-lead-widens

 

[turbo]

What a great ad! It ought to run once an hour 'round the clock in Florida.

 

[LowlyPion]

What a great ad! It ought to run once an hour 'round the clock in Florida.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQVlNgdn2_Y

That really is a good one.

I'm voting for that one.

 

[Evo]

This is funny.

Besides, the robocalls could work. Never underestimate the power of the robocalls. Because people really like getting robocalls, right?

You are at home, it is dinnertime (which is when they call you because they figure you are at home then), and you are either trying to relax or get the kids fed, and the phone rings and it is this recorded voice saying: “I’m calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers.”

And does that make you feel more or less positive about John McCain? Does it persuade you that McCain has a plan to save the economy? Or to help you pay your mortgage? Or that he has a steady hand on the tiller?

For the robocalls to be effective, the Republicans would need Bill Ayers to plant bombs today and not when Barack Obama was 8 years old. They need Ayers to plant bombs in key states right now with stickers on them that say: “I am Barack Obama, and I endorse this bomb.”

But McCain may have found his October surprise after all. In Bensalem, Pa., on Tuesday, McCain said: “Now, I’m not dumb enough to get mixed up in a World Series between swing states. But I think I may have detected a little pattern with Sen. Obama. It’s pretty simple, really. When he’s campaigning in Philadelphia, he roots for the Phillies, and when he’s campaigning in Tampa Bay, he ‘shows love’ to the Rays.”

And rumors are now flying that McCain has proof that when Obama was in the second grade he once ate paste.

The Democrats are fearful of all this. The Democrats are always fearful.

“We have been on the precipice of victory before,” Dan Pfeiffer, an Obama spokesman, told me. “You have never seen a more superstitious campaign than ours. We do not talk about victory.”

Talk about it, no. Plan for it, yes.

Also, please do not think you don't need to vote because Obama is ahead in the polls.

Obama himself has reacted to the dismal drumbeat of good news. At a fundraising concert in Manhattan last Thursday featuring Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel, Obama got up and said: “Don’t underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don’t underestimate our ability to screw it up.”

Which is the prevailing mood in the top echelons of the Democratic Party right now. The McCain campaign cannot possibly be as hapless as it looks, party leaders feel. It is lulling the Democrats into complacency. The Republicans have to have an October surprise, because the Republicans always have an October surprise.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081022/pl_politico/14800

 

[Astronuc]

Which is the prevailing mood in the top echelons of the Democratic Party right now. The McCain campaign cannot possibly be as hapless as it looks, party leaders feel. It is lulling the Democrats into complacency. The Republicans have to have an October surprise, because the Republicans always have an October surprise.

Those sneeky GOPers.

Is this anyone to run the process to select the executive who is supposed to run the US, the world's biggest economy?

 

[turbo]

Man! This is getting pretty sick. Just a few minutes ago, I got a flyer out of my mailbox that claims that Obama is soft on crime, and that he doesn't want tough penalties for drug-related crimes (the flyer specifically mentioned crack cocaine), refused to take a stand against people who fire guns at or near schools, is against tough penalties for street gangs, and is against a mandatory 48-hour cooling off period for people accused of domestic violence. I have paraphrased a bit, for the sake of brevity. Each charge is accompanied by a scary picture meant to raise doubts about Obama, and the headline on the address side said "Obama; he acted more as a friend to criminals than to cops..."

No sooner had I tossed that crap in the trash (I had to retrieve it to write this) than I got a robo-call recorded by Giuliani saying among other things that Obama opposes mandatory sentences for murder. The tone of these attacks does not suggest that Obama hesitates to tie the hands of judges, but wishes to give them leeway - instead the suggestion is that Obama is actually FOR all these crimes and the people who commit them. It's getting sick out here in battle-ground-land.

 

[Evo]

Since the battle is raging in Missouri, residents have been mailed CD's called "Radical Islam". My co-workers have been receiving them.

 

[BobG]

Remember, it's not over until the former first lady sings.

Come to think of it, now that Obama has reached an almost insurmountable lead, Hillary Clinton is on TV every day campaigning for Obama.

 

[turbo]

Remember, it's not over until the former first lady sings.

Come to think of it, now that Obama has reached an almost insurmountable lead, Hillary Clinton is on TV every day campaigning for Obama.

Clinton would LOVE to be one of the Supremes, despite her recent denials, so she'd better keep sucking up to Obama. McCain would never put her there.

 

[turbo]

Youtube recording of Robin Haynes saying the very hateful divisive things that he denied saying. As long as you hate liberals, you can be a "real American".

 

[LowlyPion]

Clinton would LOVE to be one of the Supremes, despite her recent denials, so she'd better keep sucking up to Obama. McCain would never put her there.

I think Hilary is a little too political for the Court. I doubt that she would get the nod from Obama. It strikes me that he would choose on merit. I rather suspect his nominations would be from the best available Active Appeals Court or Federal Judges. Hopefully he will get the chance to replace the idiot Thomas - though regrettably I doubt that will happen for another decade. He's only 60.

 

[Art]

An embarrassing error by McCain's camp

Russians reject McCain cash plea

The Russian mission to the UN in New York says it has turned down a request from John McCain to help fund his presidential campaign.

Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin and others received standard mail-outs asking them to help "stop the Democrats from seizing control of Washington".

Spokesmen for the McCain campaign and the mission accepted the letters were "a computer error".

Mr McCain has been a strong opponent of Russia on human rights and Georgia.

Brian Rogers, a spokesman for the McCain campaign, told the BBC the campaign had not itself received any complaints from the mission and that "it sounds like they're having a little fun at our expense".

"It's just an error," he said.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7681168.stm

and on a more ominous note

Warning over US election problems

Researchers are warning of potential problems during the US election with record numbers set to vote and many states using new voting machines.

Long queues are likely at polling stations on 4 November, Pew researchers say, and both parties are hiring lawyers in anticipation of challenges.

Voters have already had long waits in some states where early voting is under way, like North Carolina and Florida.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7683677.stm

 

[LowlyPion]

Interesting article detailing various voter suppression efforts in battleground states.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/22/voter_supression_guide/

I think one of the more crucial things a Democratic Congress could do would be to secure the election process for National elections, both as to accountability and verifiability for recount purposes, and also to simplify the voter registration and voting access rights for all Americans.

These stunts have been going on for at least 8 years under this administration and look at the mess we have to show for it - a wrecked National Balance sheet and deep social divisions that makes it harder than ever to be a United States.

 

[turbo]

I think Hilary is a little too political for the Court. I doubt that she would get the nod from Obama. It strikes me that he would choose on merit. I rather suspect his nominations would be from the best available Active Appeals Court or Federal Judges. Hopefully he will get the chance to replace the idiot Thomas - though regrettably I doubt that will happen for another decade. He's only 60.

You may be right. Still, Clinton would be a solidly liberal justice, providing some sort of balance against the right-wing activists and essentially negating one vote (Thomas comes to mind) in almost every decision. There would be lots worse places to put her, like Secretary of State, where her husband and their past political associates could wield undue influence. We need a clean start in DC.

 

[lisab]

Man! This is getting pretty sick. Just a few minutes ago, I got a flyer out of my mailbox that claims that Obama is soft on crime, and that he doesn't want tough penalties for drug-related crimes (the flyer specifically mentioned crack cocaine), refused to take a stand against people who fire guns at or near schools, is against tough penalties for street gangs, and is against a mandatory 48-hour cooling off period for people accused of domestic violence. I have paraphrased a bit, for the sake of brevity. Each charge is accompanied by a scary picture meant to raise doubts about Obama, and the headline on the address side said "Obama; he acted more as a friend to criminals than to cops..."

No sooner had I tossed that crap in the trash (I had to retrieve it to write this) than I got a robo-call recorded by Giuliani saying among other things that Obama opposes mandatory sentences for murder. The tone of these attacks does not suggest that Obama hesitates to tie the hands of judges, but wishes to give them leeway - instead the suggestion is that Obama is actually FOR all these crimes and the people who commit them. It's getting sick out here in battle-ground-land.

Sounds annoying, turbo. Meanwhile, it's nice and quiet here in the almost-certainly-blue State of Washington! Just the occasional TV ad.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Sounds annoying, turbo. Meanwhile, it's nice and quiet here in the almost-certainly-blue State of Washington! Just the occasional TV ad.

Same here in blue Oregon.

 

[turbo]

Sounds annoying, turbo. Meanwhile, it's nice and quiet here in the almost-certainly-blue State of Washington! Just the occasional TV ad.

It's about every day, lisab, and practically all afternoon and evening on the TV - luckily, I have an aversion to network TV, so I can avoid most of the broadcast attacks. My niece is the mail-carrier for this rural route, and I feel for her. Normally, she only has to stop at mail-boxes that have a flag up (outgoing) or have incoming mail. Now, every day for weeks, she has to stop at every single mailbox delivering that toxic crap.

 

[turbo]

Same here in blue Oregon.

Maine is blue, too, but McCain hopes to swing the (very rural) 2nd congressional district and earn one of Maine's apportioned electoral college votes. They are spending a LOT per voter to try to pull this off.

 

[turbo]

Here is the text of the robo-call I got earlier today. I can't post audio, because so far only left-leaning sites have linked it, but hopefully PBS will cover it in tonight's news.

Hi, this is Rudy Giuliani, and I'm calling for John McCain and the Republican National Committee because you need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers.
It's true, I read Obama's words myself. And recently, Congressional liberals introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory prison sentences for violent criminals -- trying to give liberal judges the power to decide whether criminals are sent to jail or set free. With priorities like these, we just can't trust the inexperience and judgment of Barack Obama and his liberal allies. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866 558 5591.

 

[phoenixy]

http://digitaljournalist.org/issue0810/callie-bp.html

A picture worth a thousand words. But if there is one word to describe these set of pictures, it would be -- soothing.

You can keep clicking on the more picture link to get a total of ~15 pictures.

 

[LowlyPion]

You may be right. Still, Clinton would be a solidly liberal justice, providing some sort of balance against the right-wing activists and essentially negating one vote (Thomas comes to mind) in almost every decision. There would be lots worse places to put her, like Secretary of State, where her husband and their past political associates could wield undue influence. We need a clean start in DC.

I don't think they will necessarily put her anywhere. If she leaves the Senate figure Guiliani or Bloomberg to make a grab for it.

 

[turbo]

I don't think they will necessarily put her anywhere. If she leaves the Senate figure Guiliani or Bloomberg to make a grab for it.

You may be right, but she has a huge ego (on a par with Bill's) and if she got the chance to sit on the SC, she could be looking ahead to decades of interpreting US law - a legacy that is much different (and certainly more long-lasting) than that arising from Bill's flamboyant presidency. She'd jump at it.

 

[LowlyPion]

You may be right, but she has a huge ego (on a par with Bill's) and if she got the chance to sit on the SC, she could be looking ahead to decades of interpreting US law - a legacy that is much different (and certainly more long-lasting) than that arising from Bill's flamboyant presidency. She'd jump at it.

I agree she might. And that would certainly make that branch of government the more interesting. But I think there would be a filibuster that would last until the next ice age if she was nominated.

 

[LowlyPion]

Just reported on Chris Mathews Hardball that the RNCC is withdrawing ad support for the congressional campaign of this Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. (If you recall she was the one channeling Joe McCarthy about anti-Americanism in Congress.)

Previously it had been thought to be a safe district and now apparently they are afraid they are losing the district and are deploying resources elsewhere.

 

[turbo]

Just reported on Chris Mathews Hardball that the RNCC is withdrawing ad support for the congressional campaign of this Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. (If you recall she was the one channeling Joe McCarthy about anti-Americanism in Congress.)

Previously it had been thought to be a safe district and now apparently they are afraid they are losing the district and are deploying resources elsewhere.

Her Democratic opponent has been flooded with over a million dollars in donations in the last 4 days and her GOP primary opponent is jumping back into the race as a write-in. Bachmann is toast.

 

[Evo]

Bachman said she had never watched Hardball before the interview and didn't realize what it was. It's called TELEVISION, dear.

 

[LowlyPion]

Bachman said she had never watched Hardball before the interview and didn't realize what it was. It's called TELEVISION, dear.

She probably thought it was Fox and Friends.

Speaking of which I saw it this morning and they were announcing that Roger Ailes was inducted into the Broadcasting Hall of Fame last evening along 9 others including Matt Lauer. The dumb one (I know that doesn't narrow it any) interjected that it was a shame Ailes couldn't be inducted by himself. (I think they inducted him because he doesn't look all that healthy.)

I swear I think the bunch of them are a result of inbreeding.

 

[Gokul43201]

Late update - sorry for the delay. Obama's numbers have clearly hit saturation and are fluctuating about that level.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265 
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163  |  364/174    273/265 
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158  |  364/174    273/265 
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155  |  369/169    273/265
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157  |  364/174    273/265

Market Update:

               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135

 

[turbo]

Here is an interesting poll, conducted by eight Big Ten schools. The reason I find it interesting is that although Obama is over the 50% mark in all these battleground states, the poll sampled only households with land-lines. Cell-only voters (who tend to be younger) were excluded, and that almost certainly skewed the results toward McCain, since Obama has more support amongst younger people.

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

 

[physics girl phd]

I always have belief that Michigan swings blue when needed... but Ohio?? WOW... I was surprised to see today that Ohio, the state of my birth and upbringing has turned to leaning blue on several electoral maps. I think this is in part from the big lead shown in the big-ten poll Turbo-1 links to above. Wow. That would, I confess, make me happy.

Down here in red TN, I'll confess to only being happy at the thought of taking a razor blade to the "N" of "NOBAMA" bumper stickers. I don't... but gee would I like to!