What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[Gokul43201]

Last update before Election Day.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                              AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                
                                                                 
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster  Elec-Proj     
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191              349/189    
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180              338/200    
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180              338/200    
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177              338/200    
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188              306/232    
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177              311/227    
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214    298/240    
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147    338/200    
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157    298/240    
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191    264/274    
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176    273/265    
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179    278/260    
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219    273/265    
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174    273/265    
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174    273/265    
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163    364/174    
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158    364/174    
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155    369/169    
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157    364/174    
10/28   306/157  375/163  277/174  364/157    306/142   306/142    375/163    
10/31   311/142  353/185  291/163  364/171    338/142   311/142 
11/03   278/132  353/185  291/157  353/185    318/157   311/142    353/185

Market Update:

               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135
Oct 28     $87.6    $12.2      0.860   0.130
Oct 31     $84.5    $16.6      0.847   0.154
Nov 03     $89.2    $10.5      0.903   0.103

 

[turbo]

A life-long conservative who worked at the National Review for forty years and wrote speeches for both Nixon and Reagan is coming out for Obama. In this short article, he explains just how radical the Republican party has gotten and how they have abandoned conservative principles. I wish his endorsement had happened a week or so ago, and been picked up by the major news outlets. In summary:

This analysis could be extended, but it seems clear to me that Obama is the conservative in the 2008 election.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-31/obama-is-the-true-conservative/

 

[turbo]

Progressive future is running the BEST ad of the campaign. See it here.

 

[misgfool]

On the eve of election I'm going to make a raid to the Obama camp. Obama promotes a civilian national security force that is as well funded as the military. What does CNSF mean? Is it some kind of paramilitary group? More assault rifles for civilians?

 

[mgb_phys]

Can I get a clarification on Socialism?
Is Palin a socialist for taking money from the oil companies and giving it to the people of Alaska?

No socialism would be like Norway - it takes all the money form the oil companies and invests it. The government is only allowed to spend the return not the capital.
Alaska takes the capital and gives it away - hence capitalist.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yersterday, in Franklin county, Ohio, the polls closed at 5 PM, but it took until 11 PM before everyone already in line was able to vote.

 

[jal]

No socialism would be like Norway - it takes all the money form the oil companies and invests it. The government is only allowed to spend the return not the capital.
Alaska takes the capital and gives it away - hence capitalist.

hehehe! Cute play on words.
Palin still took from the rich and gave to the poor.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

There was a woman commenting that she is voting for McCain because Obama's universal health care plan worries her. She imagines people waiting in lines to get the health care they need.

So, she is worried that the peolple who need care might clog the system? Let them eat cake!

Obviously she hasn't been to a major hospital lately. It isn't unusual for a trip to the hospital to kill eight to twelve hours, or more. In fact, not long ago, a woman had to wait so long for care that she died in the waiting room. Her husband tried calling 911 for someone to come and help her, but he was told that 911 doesn't rescue people from hospitals.

They did manage to clean-up the blood that she had been vomiting on the lobby floor, but no help for her.

That was at MLK hospital, in Los Angeles, where I have spent many, many hours.

 

[LowlyPion]

Interesting vignette. Another personal tale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW-6DpC-mj8

 

[turbo]

Interesting vignette. Another personal tale.

Great catch! That's a pretty sharp old fellow.

 

[LowlyPion]

Great catch! That's a pretty sharp old fellow.

I should credit Salon.

There is another there of Obama walking a day in the shoes of a woman at home from when he was Senator.

Oh wait. He's Senator now.

But I'm guessing not for long.

 

[LightbulbSun]

There was a woman commenting that she is voting for McCain because Obama's universal health care plan worries her. She imagines people waiting in lines to get the health care they need.

So, she is worried that the peolple who need care might clog the system? Let them eat cake!

Obviously she hasn't been to a major hospital lately. It isn't unusual for a trip to the hospital to kill eight to twelve hours, or more. In fact, not long ago, a woman had to wait so long for care that she died in the waiting room. Her husband tried calling 911 for someone to come and help her, but he was told that 911 doesn't rescue people from hospitals.

They did manage to clean-up the blood that she had been vomiting on the lobby floor, but no help for her.

That was at MLK hospital, in Los Angeles, where I have spent many, many hours.

My mother had a gall bladder problem a couple of years ago, in which she was vomiting so hard she was peeing on the floor and she was in extreme pain. I drive her to the hospital and it took like 6-7 hours before she even got intense treatment. Their reasoning was that someone was not breathing and that was more important. Ok, obviously that is, but you're going to tell me the whole hospital staff is trying to help that person breathe again? Are hospitals really that understaffed?

 

[LowlyPion]

I noticed this clip from Obama in response the same issues as the low blow ad the McCain PACs have been making recently in hopes of linking Obama to the words of other people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7piGy0u43c

 

[phoenixy]

McCain vs Palin debate

 

[LowlyPion]

McCain vs Palin debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrUN8oldj9o

Thanks. That's a good one.

 

[Astronuc]

World closely watching US presidential elections
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081103/ap_on_re_as/us_elections_world_view

JAKARTA, Indonesia – When Sri Murtiningsi asked her third graders what they wanted to be when they grew up, the answers ranged from doctors to a pilot. One boy in the class raised his hand: Barack Obama said his dream was to be president of the United States.

Forty years later Murtiningsi — like the rest of the world — is watching closely as Americans prepare to head to the polls Tuesday.

"Barry was the only one who said he wanted to be president ... I hope his dream comes true," Murtiningsi said of Obama, who spent four years living in Indonesia as a child.

Many believe Obama's international experience would go a long way in helping repair damage caused by the unpopular U.S.-led war in Iraq, with recent opinion polls from more than 70 nations favoring him a resounding three-to-one over Republican John McCain.

Newspapers across the globe came out in support of the Democratic candidate Monday.

. . . .

So the whole world is waiting.

 

[LowlyPion]

Poor John McCain.

He saddled himself with a stump speech that he has simply repeated far too often. And he so shamelessly has dumped into it just about anything that has gotten him a cheer this year. He still offers nothing original. No actual plans, because all he knows is repeating Bush rhetoric.

But then again, maybe he can only recite something that he has memorized many times over.

The part of his speech where he amps it up to We will fight. We will win sounds like it's straight from a Wasilla Cheerleading manual.

 

[Astronuc]

I listened to part of McCain's address in New Hampshire, and he sounded really good, and very positive. If only he had run the campaign with that positive message, and had picked a qualified canditate for VP.

 

[LowlyPion]

I listened to part of McCain's address in New Hampshire, and he sounded really good, and very positive. If only he had run the campaign with that positive message, and had picked a qualified canditate for VP.

The problem is that these speeches are shown everywhere these days.

And when they are repeated time after time it sounds like they have nothing new to say.

I'm sure the first time they sound effective, but honestly they show every speech this cycle and it looks bad after a while.

Biden repeats a lot too. Obama somewhat. But neither like Palin and McCain.

I heard Michelle Obama speak in Nevada today and she wasn't nearly as polished as the candidates, but because she had a new and different perspective and didn't rest so heavily on talking point rhetoric, I thought it was a really effective humanizing speech.

 

[LowlyPion]

Obama's Grandmother just passed away.

AP NewsAlert
Nov 3 05:33 PM US/Eastern

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Barack Obama says his grandmother died Monday.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

 

[turbo]

I listened to part of McCain's address in New Hampshire, and he sounded really good, and very positive. If only he had run the campaign with that positive message, and had picked a qualified canditate for VP.

What's unfortunate is that as a conservative, I supported McCain in 2000 when he was getting trashed by Rove's mud machine. The 2008 McCain is a monster, willing to say or do anything (or allow those actions to be taken in his name) to win. I was convinced in 2000 and before that he was more honorable and decent than that and his fall is disappointing. His selection of Palin as VP candidate sealed his doom IMO even before he went so horribly nasty.

Living in the 2nd district of ME (McCain wants our ONE electoral vote), I am subjected to a barrage of robo-calls accusing Obama of siding with terrorists, criminals, etc, and being anti-American. By contrast, Obama callers are always real people, and they are polite and respectful. By their fruits shall you know them.

 

[turbo]

Obama's Grandmother just passed away.

The GOP machine has revived their attacks on Obama in the last couple of days, because he had the temerity to go to visit the woman who raised him, in her final days. Would any of us have done anything different, under the circumstances?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama's Grandmother just passed away.

Oh no; how sad.

 

[LowlyPion]

I'm waiting now for the first Republican to claim it is a stunt to steal the last Election news day cycle.

 

[Cyrus]

I drove all the way down to DC today to buy my Obama Biden T-shirt.

Im wearing it all over town today, giving high fives to girls who have obama shirts and pins on as well. And winks and nods to guys with it on, as they nod back. I feel like Sarah Palin.

 

[Astronuc]

He said his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, had died peacefully after a battle with cancer.

RIP, Grandma Dunham.

 

[Astronuc]

Cheney's hometown paper endorses Obama
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/03/cheneys-hometown-paper-endorses-obama/

(CNN)—With just over a day before polls start to close, Vice President Dick Cheney's hometown newspaper named their presidential pick — Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.

"It is a foregone conclusion that Wyoming's three electoral votes will go to Sen. John McCain. It would be easy for the Star-Tribune to simply agree with the majority of voters in this red state and endorse the Republican candidate for president," the Editorial Board of Wyoming's Casper Star-Tribune wrote Monday.

"But this isn't an ordinary election, and Sen. Barack Obama has the potential to be an extraordinary leader at a time we desperately need one."

The board goes on to commend Obama's judgement, criticizing McCain's conduct during his campaign and choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

"If the John McCain of 2000 saw today's counterpart, he wouldn't recognize himself," the Board wrote. "McCain is no longer a GOP maverick, or the war hero whose principles were unwavering. He has flip-flopped on issues ranging from tax cuts to torture in an effort to win over the conservative base of his party. He has waged a dismal campaign based on fear and divisiveness."

. . . .

 

[LowlyPion]

Here's a shocker rushed to release just before the election. How accommodating her own Personnel Board was to her Election Schedule. Job Security couldn't have been the reason for their conclusions I'm just so sure.

New Troopergate report clears Palin

By LISA DEMER | ldemer@adn.com

Published: November 3rd, 2008 03:46 PM
Last Modified: November 3rd, 2008 03:50 PM

A new report just released -- hours before the polls open on Election Day -- exonerates Gov. Sarah Palin in the Troopergate controversy.

The state Personnel Board-sanctioned investigation is the second into whether Palin violated state ethics law in firing her public safety commissioner, and it contradicts the earlier findings by a special counsel hired by the state Legislature.

Both investigations found that Palin was within her rights to fire Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan.

But the new report says the Legislature's investigator was wrong to conclude that Palin abused her power by allowing aides and her husband, Todd, to pressure Monegan and others to dismiss her ex-brother-in-law, Trooper Mike Wooten. Palin was accused of firing Monegan after Wooten stayed on the job.

http://www.adn.com/palin/story/577323.html

Alas they don't have jurisdiction to change the conclusions of the Legislative Report.

 

[LowlyPion]

Try this stunt next time you are on Jury Duty.

Stevens juror admits lying about father's death

By ERIKA BOLSTAD
Anchorage Daily News

Published: November 3rd, 2008 08:44 AM
Last Modified: November 3rd, 2008 03:22 PM

WASHINGTON -- Juror No. 4 in Sen. Ted Stevens' federal corruption trial, otherwise known as Marian Hinnant, didn't leave to attend her father's funeral in California, as she told the judge at the time.

Instead, Hinnant had a plane ticket to see the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita Park outside Los Angeles and didn't want to miss it, she told the judge today when he ordered her to court to find out why she'd left town and lost contact with him, forcing him to replace her just hours before the jury found Stevens guilty last week.

"I just wanted to go to the Breeders' Cup," she told reporters outside the courthouse in a rambling and incoherent interview.

http://www.adn.com/news/politics/fbi/stevens/story/576884.html

 

[Coin]

Here is a possibly useful chart showing when polls in each state tomorrow close, converted into each time zone.

and http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3641

 

[LowlyPion]

Voting has begun at Dixsville Notch, NH.

So far then it's McCain 6 - Obama 15 in a landslide so far.

Dixville once went 9 - 0 for Nixon in the 1960 election.

 

[jal]

It appears that there are some good things being done outside of the spotlights.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aZBMZ0OU26uw&refer=home
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg)
Bush Praised By Both Parties for Transition Planning (Update2)

By Edwin Chen

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Joe the Plumber seems to have been dropped from the show since he didn't show up at a rally. In Joe's defense, reportedly, he had promised to show up somewhere between 10 AM, and 4 PM.

 

[phoenixy]

OMG ALASKA

http://www.haysresearch.com/OC110208.htm

McCain/Palin 46.6%
Obama/Biden 43.9%

 

[CaptainQuasar]

Joe the Plumber seems to have been dropped from the show since he didn't show up at a rally. In Joe's defense, reportedly, he had promised to show up somewhere between 10 AM, and 4 PM.