- #351
apeiron
Gold Member
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The latest on what the oil companies are saying...
http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/aboutshell/signals_signposts.pdf
Shell says we need to be worried as we are about to enter the zone of extraordinary misery/opportunity.
Shell does not dwell on the reasons why the oil won't be there, but focuses on the geopolitical stress to be expected from developing nations expecting their fair share of the global economic cake.
So even with optimistic efficiency measures and optimistic supply growth, there is still a huge gap to be filled (or expect a very unhappy world with a demographics that pits the young, angry and populous against the old, weary and nervous).
http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/aboutshell/signals_signposts.pdf
Shell says we need to be worried as we are about to enter the zone of extraordinary misery/opportunity.
Shell does not dwell on the reasons why the oil won't be there, but focuses on the geopolitical stress to be expected from developing nations expecting their fair share of the global economic cake.
Underlying global demand for energy by 2050 could triple from its 2000 level if
emerging economies follow historical patterns of development.
In broad-brush terms, natural innovation and competition could spur improvements
in energy efficiency to moderate underlying demand by about 20% over this
time. Ordinary rates of supply growth -- taking into account technological,
geological, competitive, financial and political realities -- could naturally boost
energy production by about 50%. But this still leaves a gap between businessas-
usual supply and business-as-usual demand of around 400 EJ/a – the size of
the whole industry in 2000.
This gap – this Zone of Uncertainty – will have to be bridged by some combination of
extraordinary demand moderation and extraordinary production acceleration.
So even with optimistic efficiency measures and optimistic supply growth, there is still a huge gap to be filled (or expect a very unhappy world with a demographics that pits the young, angry and populous against the old, weary and nervous).
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