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But it can be neither.Vanadium 50 said:It can't be both.
But it can be neither.Vanadium 50 said:It can't be both.
I didn't study economics, so the following may be wrong (correct me if necessary), but the more a cryptocurrency is used as a currency, the more stable it becomes. Regarding, say bitcoin to pick one, why wouldn't it be possible for it to be a currency, assuming that it's deflationary and is regarded as an investment, because it presumably didn't reach enough popularity?Vanadium 50 said:I'd go a step further - crypto should not be an "investment",. If it's a currency, it's supposed to be a stable store of value. (Currencies can fluctuate with respect to each other, but that's the intent. And yes, it doesn't always work out that way. Failures to maintain a stable store of value include the Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan Bolivar, a handful from Brazil, etc.)
Or is crypto an investment, with ups and downs? If so, what's the underlying asset?
It can't be both.
I think the cause-effect relationship goes the other way: stability and security (reliability) are traits of a good gurrency, so they cause people to adopt it. For example, USD or Euros instead of Mexican Pesos for international trade. I don't see why adoption should cause stability except due to inertia(and then only a limited amount). And since the actual use is tiny compared to the investment holding, what happens if people stop buying it.fluidistic said:...but the more a cryptocurrency is used as a currency, the more stable it becomes.
I hold investments, but buy and sell stuff with money. They're fundamentally different. I don't expect or want massive deflation in my checking account and I can't and won't buy a soda by feeding a stock certificate into the machine.Regarding, say bitcoin to pick one, why wouldn't it be possible for it to be a currency, assuming that it's deflationary and is regarded as an investment, because it presumably didn't reach enough popularity?
How? My checking account statement proves I own the money in it, but the statements usefulness has nothing to do with the value in it. I don't see why bitcoin advocates see value in the features of bitcoin.I would say that.the underlying value of bitcoin is that, as of today at least, one can safely prove ownership of a particular address on the bitcoin blockchain.
Agreed. And that's a great feature for a scam.I think it's extremely complicated to dig into all the details and caveats of how bitcoin works, so that most people take for.granted.that it's a safe way to prove ownership, while in reality there is a big leap of faith involved...
Inflation transfers welath from creditors to debtors. In principle, if you are a debtor you want inflation, and if you're a creditor, you want deflation. Too much of either, of course, causes other, deeper problems.russ_watters said:It's generally regarded by economists that slight inflation is good.
If that were strictly true, Bitcoin heists would be impossible. And, in principle, I suppose one could photograph every dollar one ever had and get at least as good results.fluidistic said:one can safely prove ownership of a particular address on the bitcoin blockchain
I have a personal theory that the real point of inflation, or at least one point, is to give everyone a pay cut. Over time there are jobs that are relatively less valuable, and either the pay for those people needs to be cut, or everyone else needs to be paid more. I think psychologically people are very adverse to pay cuts so a small amount of inflation is necessary if we want jobs to fade away in the economy.Vanadium 50 said:Inflation transfers welath from creditors to debtors. In principle, if you are a debtor you want inflation, and if you're a creditor, you want deflation. Too much of either, of course, causes other, deeper problems.
What I meant is that as long as you have the private key of a particular address, you can prove it, for example by transfering funds out of the address (but I'm sure there are other ways too). If someone have access to the key, he gains ownership of that address, and this may happen by scammer/gunpoint/drug/whatever else way.Vanadium 50 said:If that were strictly true, Bitcoin heists would be impossible. And, in principle, I suppose one could photograph every dollar one ever had and get at least as good results.
US dollars have a unique aspect: US taxes must be paid in US dollars = not euros, yen, pesos, loonies or bitcoins. The US spends $6T a year in federal spending, and states about $2T on a GDP of about $25T. So about a third of the US economy must be on dollars.
Given that, what does Bitcoin buy you?
Neither seems a compelling reason to switch away from dollar when buying a gallon of milk. In the US, crime is a few percent of the economy, so there is little use of Bitcoin day-to-day. Only when you want someone whacked.
- The ability to buy things you don't want the government knowing about.
- Stonks only go up! Bitcoin too!
That leaves "stonks always go up" - with no underlying asset and limited purchsing ability,. the only point is the Greater Fool Theory. Get in now, and sell it later to someone else. Historically this has not ended well. You won't want to be the one standing up when the music stops.
Not allowed on PF! Mods! Mods!Office_Shredder said:I have a personal theory
Except the law.fluidistic said:nothing forbids taxes to be paid in bitcoins,
I don't think you do. I certainly don't own the money in my bank account. For instance, when I tried to perform a wire transfer to a cryptocurrency exchange, my bank refused, even though what I wanted to do isn't illegal. I asked why and they replied they do not want to deal with these kinds of business, although they suggested me to use a debit card to purchase crypto (but they charge around 2 percent instead of zero!). If I were to gamble in a casino or buy a weapon, I guess my bank wouldn't prevent me from doing it, but eventually it's up to my bank to decide what I cannot do with ''my'' money, not me. They can also freeze my account for any reason.russ_watters said:How? My checking account statement proves I own the money in it, but the statements usefulness has nothing to do with the value in it. I don't see why bitcoin advocates see value in the features of bitcoin.
Or...there's value in credit card processing, buy it's fixed as a small percentage of the money flow, not stand-alone.
Agreed. And that's a great feature for a scam.
That's nonsense. Not only is it yours, but it is federally insured against loss.fluidistic said:I don't think you do. I certainly don't own the money in my bank account.
Owning the money doesn't mean you get every account feature/term you want, and because you are lending them your money but it is protected, it is in both their interest and the government's that they don't do stupid or illegal things for you just because you ask them to.For instance, when I tried to perform a wire transfer to a cryptocurrency exchange, my bank refused...
But few people actually hold their own keys. That's why they use shadier banks (exchanges) to hold their money and help them do dumb/illegal things with it.Bitcoin, as far as I know, doesn't suffer from these features. If you own an address, then you're your own bank and your funds are yours.
I still want to do what I wish with my money. "Investing" in cryptos shouldn't be forbidden by banks, even in the worst (legal) case that the cryptos goes to 0 in value. Buying cryptos isn't forbidden by the law.russ_watters said:That's nonsense. Not only is it yours, but it is federally insured against loss.
Owning the money doesn't mean you get every account feature/term you want, and because you are lending them your money but it is protected, it is in both their interest and the government's that they don't do stupid or illegal things for you just because you ask them to.
But few people actually hold their own keys. That's why they use shadier banks (exchanges) to hold their money and help them do dumb/illegal things with it.
Also, holding your keys makes it even harder to use.
fluidistic said:I still want to do what I wish with my money. "Investing" in cryptos shouldn't be forbidden by banks, even in the worst (legal) case that the cryptos goes to 0 in value. Buying cryptos isn't forbidden by the law.
A stupider thing would be to buy a pack of cigarettes, don't you think?
fluidistic said:Few people hold their own keys because they buy cryptos on centralised exchanges and let the money there because of either choice or laziness. These exchanges are indeed similar to banks in several aspects, one of them being fractional reserve. Unlike banks though, we can see the amount each exchange really owns, in real time (except for Monero since its blockchain is obfuscated).
"Place your bets, you can't win without a ticket..."kyphysics said:Which bubble dies first?
$GME/$AMC are "bubbles" only in that the value of their stock is too high for the underlying value of the companies. They are NOT without ANY underlying value so the thought of their going all the way to zero is pretty much a non-starter. Crypto coins on they other hand generally have NO underlying value so it is not at all unthinkable that their value could go to zero.kyphysics said:Which bubble dies first?
$GME/$AMC
or crypto
Regarding cryptocurrencies, can we consider their underlying values tied to what they offer, i.e. what we can accomplish with them?phinds said:$GME/$AMC are "bubbles" only in that the value of their stock is too high for the underlying value of the companies. They are NOT without ANY underlying value so the thought of their going all the way to zero is pretty much a non-starter. Crypto coins on they other hand generally have NO underlying value so it is not at all unthinkable that their value could go to zero.
AMC is still a "useful" business, whereas I find GameStop more and more useless each time I think about it.phinds said:$GME/$AMC are "bubbles" only in that the value of their stock is too high for the underlying value of the companies. They are NOT without ANY underlying value so the thought of their going all the way to zero is pretty much a non-starter. Crypto coins on they other hand generally have NO underlying value so it is not at all unthinkable that their value could go to zero.
Then withdraw it and stick it in a duffle bag and meet the guy you want to transfer it to in the alley behind the dumpsters and hand it to him. This has nothing to do with whether you own your money.fluidistic said:I still want to do what I wish with my money.
Since I have no idea what you were actually trying to do (since you didn't tell us), I can't really comment directly on that. In general though, banks can't prevent you from using your money for what you want.fluidistic said:"Investing" in cryptos shouldn't be forbidden by banks, even in the worst (legal) case that the cryptos goes to 0 in value. Buying cryptos isn't forbidden by the law.
Grblabllethetch.fluidistic said:A stupider thing would be to buy a pack of cigarettes, don't you think?
Really? How much does Coinbase have deposited and currently held? If that's an easy/obvious thing, why do exchanges keep going under?fluidistic said:These exchanges are indeed similar to banks in several aspects, one of them being fractional reserve. Unlike banks though, we can see the amount each exchange really owns, in real time.
Sure. Credit cards, for example, have 1-4% processing fees...tied to the real money they are transacting. That's basically it. Otherwise, there's no reason for crypto to have any value at all.Regarding cryptocurrencies, can we consider their underlying values tied to what they offer, i.e. what we can accomplish with them?
In order for those features to have value, people have to want to use them*. Don't be disingenuous: almost nobody wants/uses those features.No bank can offer the same service. Some cryptos have unique features.
For some reason my broker still reports that I hold some TDFX stock even though it went to zero and got bought-up by Nvidia like 20 years ago. I wish it would stop. Anyway, it happened fast. Yes, GME has assets, but it also has liabilities and could go to zero pretty quickly.phinds said:$GME/$AMC are "bubbles" only in that the value of their stock is too high for the underlying value of the companies. They are NOT without ANY underlying value so the thought of their going all the way to zero is pretty much a non-starter. Crypto coins on they other hand generally have NO underlying value so it is not at all unthinkable that their value could go to zero.
I thought you were more of an indexer only from various comments you've made. So, you buy single stocks too, eh? Any 10 baggers?russ_watters said:For some reason my broker still reports that I hold some TDFX stock
If judging by Reddit's WallStreetBets page, a lot of these people are broke.russ_watters said:That said, the same people who are propping-up GME are also propping up crypto so they may have similar longevity.
I bought the most recent edition (April, 2022) for this discussion. A few excerpts:Nugatory said:First investment book I bought, at age 22. Dated now of course, but still readable and the mindset is timeless. [emphasis added]
Disagree. First off, I think you over-estimate how much hardship most people face. For example, I doubt you realize that about 2/3 of households in the US own their homes - a fraction that has changed little over the past few decades. Next, ~41% of Americans contribute to a 401k (just one retirement savings vehicle). The amount of people who are truly screwed unless they win the lottery is pretty low...and given the extremely low odds of winning the lottery, most would still be better off saving the money.fluidistic said:The 1 percent shouldn't be a general rule. I don't blame people who have very little saved (say less than 15k dollars), who even though are in their 20s, 30s or 40s won't ever be able to afford to buy a place to live if they continue with their current job/carrier path. They have very little to lose in placing most of their money into crypto, even if they lose 100 percent of it.
If you're in your 20s and you put some money into an S&P index fund and forget about it until after you retire it is likely to go up by about 50x. That's a heckuvalot more likely/less risk than trying it with crypto. And, of course, there's the actual odds. That crypto bet might go up by 100x but it is much more likely to go to zero. The stock bet might go up 50x or 20x or 100x, but there's pretty much zero chance of it going to zero. That's very, very unlike crypto.fluidistic said:It won't make a big difference in their lives. If bitcoin or whatever they bought goes up 3x or 5x in their lifetime, it might make a little change, and if it goes 100x, then they would have won.
C'mon. For the vast majority of people, "diversification" means a diversified stock portfolio (mixed with some bonds), and most Americans have one. You're using a dystopian/defeatist perspective to justify gambling with what should be investing money.fluidistic said:About diversification, sure... easy to do when you're rich and can afford the whole spectrum of things to invest in. Art, gold, stocks, cryptos, appartments, etc. When you're broke, you don't have much diversification possible.
I was in college when I bought that and using a career-starter loan. I also bought AMD and ATI(later bought by AMD) which did pretty well for me. Today I probably have 60% of my holdings in S&P index funds, another 20% in various other mutual funds, 10% in bonds and 10% in individual stocks. Maybe I'll look up the exact numbers later...kyphysics said:I thought you were more of an indexer only from various comments you've made. So, you buy single stocks too, eh?
I have no idea what that means.kyphysics said:Any 10 baggers?
If we're in for a significant bear market/recession, yeah, that's the scenario. If you're an individual investor saving for retirement (me), you just hunker-down and avoid looking at your portfolio until it passes. But if you're an over-leveraged exchange and people are pulling their money out, you may fail.kyphysics said:If judging by Reddit's WallStreetBets page, a lot of these people are broke.
I wonder, too, should we enter a recession, if some of these people will be forced to sell their meme stocks (whatever is left of them) just to have $$$?
Same w/ crypto...perhaps the desperate gamblers will be crushed and have to sell out at the bottom after having lost X amount of money...and maybe it ends that way?
Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaat? You've never read Peter Lynch's investing books? 10 baggers are 10x gainers!russ_watters said:I was in college when I bought that and using a career-starter loan. I also bought AMD and ATI(later bought by AMD) which did pretty well for me. Today I probably have 60% of my holdings in S&P index funds, another 20% in various other mutual funds, 10% in bonds and 10% in individual stocks. Maybe I'll look up the exact numbers later...
I have no idea what that means.
I have made no assumption nor guess at the percentage of those people. I just focused on that group (I may consider myself to be into that group, except that I'm not based in the US). From your comment, except for the valuable information about the numbers, all I get is "most would still be better off saving the money. ", which may be true, but I don't see the argument.russ_watters said:Disagree. First off, I think you over-estimate how much hardship most people face. For example, I doubt you realize that about 2/3 of households in the US own their homes - a fraction that has changed little over the past few decades. Next, ~41% of Americans contribute to a 401k (just one retirement savings vehicle). The amount of people who are truly screwed unless they win the lottery is pretty low...and given the extremely low odds of winning the lottery, most would still be better off saving the money.
I think 50x is an exaggeration of what is to come, but I get your point. In Europe though, the picture looks much less appealing, as I've already discussed with you several months ago, I pointed out that the population of many countries will drop dramatically, Italy will be wiped out by half (or almost) by 2100. In developed European countries, the median age will be around 65 years old by that time (currently around 40 years old). Even though up to now the numbers of their stocks looked appealing, I wouldn't consider it a nice and safe bet for the future of a 20 years old, in these European countries at least.russ_watters said:If you're in your 20s and you put some money into an S&P index fund and forget about it until after you retire it is likely to go up by about 50x. That's a heckuvalot more likely/less risk than trying it with crypto. And, of course, there's the actual odds. That crypto bet might go up by 100x but it is much more likely to go to zero. The stock bet might go up 50x or 20x or 100x, but there's pretty much zero chance of it going to zero. That's very, very unlike crypto.
Point taken.russ_watters said:C'mon. For the vast majority of people, "diversification" means a diversified stock portfolio (mixed with some bonds), and most Americans have one. You're using a dystopian/defeatist perspective to justify gambling with what should be investing money.
That's not how it works, and you know it. :) The only way to send money to the exchange without a % fee is by using SEPA transfer. But I agree with you about taking the money out of that particular bank.russ_waters said:Then withdraw it and stick it in a duffle bag and meet the guy you want to transfer it to in the alley behind the dumpsters and hand it to him. This has nothing to do with whether you own your money.
Converting part of my fiat into cryptos, with the hope to use it as such in a far future, of course with the hope that it allows me to pay for things I am unable to afford now. For me it would be a non luxurious place to live.russ_waters said:Since I have no idea what you were actually trying to do (since you didn't tell us), I can't really comment directly on that. In general though, banks can't prevent you from using your money for what you want.
Not really convincing me that "investing" in cryptos is worse than buying a pack of cigarettes. I'm open to change my mind, but that argument isn't really convincing to me.russ_waters said:Grblabllethetch.
I don't know, the information has to be extracted from each blockchain Coinbase is into. I can give you an address of what I believe pertains to Binance: bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h (currently has 54k BTC, and that's the address that sent me the BTC I withdrew from Binance).russ_waters said:Really? How much does Coinbase have deposited and currently held? If that's an easy/obvious thing, why do exchanges keep going under?
Of course the big difference is FDIC insurance...and also the reserve requirements are legally required.
True as of now. But I hope things will change in the future.russ_waters said:In order for those features to have value, people have to want to use them*. Don't be disingenuous: almost nobody wants/uses those features.
No. I wouldn't rule it out, and Meta aren't the first to try (google glass?), but I don't think it's something people really want. Cool for movies though (Ready Player One, Free Guy).kyphysics said:re: facebook
Do you (or anyone) have faith in the metaverse?