Why Did Reddit Trigger a GameStop Stock Surge?

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In summary, the reddit users successfully attacked Gamestop by buying the stock, while the hedge funds lost billions.
  • #211
Vanadium 50 said:
Why are you in attack mode? And why have you been in this mode all wek?
For once I mimicked the posts you made regularly (mainly to show you how they look when they don't come from yourself), and suddenly I'm in attack mode?
 
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  • #212
At least that's an answer. An answer that I think says more about you than me, but at least it';s an answer.
 
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  • #213
russ_watters said:
You give them that much credit? Hmm, I guess its possible...

I was thinking more along the lines of "stumbled upon" but given Gill's financial background, job and licenses, the probability that this wasn't somebody just wandering into it has gone up in my mind. But I will concede there is a selection bias: somebody touts a declining stock and it continues its decline, and nobody takes notice.

There was a similar run up on Hertz (HTZGQ). The Q means "bankrupt", and it is pretty clear that the folks pushing it on the internet were either a) unsophisticated, or b) wanted to appear unsophisticated. The ability of Hertz to emerge from bankruptcy as a viable company has nothing to do with the value of HTZGQ because it will be a new company with new shares but the old name. The HTZGQ shares will be worthless - arithmetic says so, the judge says so, and even Hertz says so. Yes the stock jumped more than a factor of 2 in October and again in December (after having gone down in between).
 
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  • #214
russ_watters said:
Doesn't that also protect individual investors from themselves?

I'd be interested in your opinion on exactly what the brokerages' responsibilities are here.
 
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  • #215
russ_watters said:
The redditors believed the hedge funds were engaging in a coordinated attack against a company they liked, and that made it "bad". They were defending GME and that makes them "good".

That is not really what I was seeing on reddit. GME was shorted more than 100%. The statements "I just like the stonk" was do to SEC oversite. It went with "This is not financial advice".

The moral stuff was only relevant as a justification for pillaging them while they are exposed. If someone has their pants around their ankles and you run off with their wallet that would be morally bad. The hedge funds in question run off with people's money every day. It was not insider trading because the short interest was posted up on the big board where everyone could see it for months.
 
  • #216
stefan r said:
That is not really what I was seeing on reddit. GME was shorted more than 100%. The statements "I just like the stonk" was do to SEC oversite. It went with "This is not financial advice".

The moral stuff was only relevant as a justification for pillaging them while they are exposed. If someone has their pants around their ankles and you run off with their wallet that would be morally bad. The hedge funds in question run off with people's money every day. It was not insider trading because the short interest was posted up on the big board where everyone could see it for months.
[edit; missed it] You're saying they did it primarily to "steal" money from the hedge funds? Do you have any examples of posts where a strategy for that was described? Because I don't think I ever saw one.

Here's the flaw in that: in order for a Redditor (or anyone else) to make money they had to buy low and sell high. The lack of a strategy to sell high was overt/conspicuous feature of what happened. The only conspicuous end-game I saw was the lack of an end-game: "hold".

Anyway, I saw a ton of posts from people who said they were doing it to harm the big, bad hedge funds, and if they also lost money in the process, that was OK. (If contradictory)

I also saw entire threads that were filled with nothing but "I like the stock" over and over and over again. As far as I can tell, they were empty of thought/content.
 
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  • #217
stefan r said:
The hedge funds in question run off with people's money every day.

Can you clarify (and justify, keeping in mind there are two sides to every trade) that statement? How does this happen? And are we talking about every hedge fund? Most? Many? Some?
 
  • #218
stefan r said:
GME was shorted more than 100%

I see this a lot. So much so that I think many people misunderstand what it means.

Shorted stock is borrowed stock. Let's look at the same thing with a physical item, say a snow shovel. Andy, Betty and Charlie are neighbors, and Andy and Betty own snow shovels. It snows, so Charlie borrows a snow shovel from Betty. Betty then borrows one from Andy. 100% of the snow shovels are now borrowed.

Had instead Charlie borrowed the shovel directly from Andy, only 50% of the snow shovels would be borrowed.

With a little effort. one can work out a scenario where everyone has the exact same shovels (not just number of shovels) as when they started, but the shovel borrowing rate is over 200%.

The fact that short interest is greater than 100% says there is a lot of interest in selling the stock. No doubt about that. But there is nothing magic about the 100% number - nothing is happening at 100% that wasn't happening at 99%.
 
  • #219
There is nothing magic happening at exactly 100%, but over 100% is a very large short interest. If it would be over 200% people would highlight it's over 200%, but it's not.
 
  • #220
russ_watters said:
Anyway, I saw a ton of posts from people who said they were doing it to harm the big, bad hedge funds, and if they also lost money in the process, that was OK. (If contradictory)

Probably easier to just pool that money that would be lost and hire a guy who...you know...removes problems. I know a guy who knows a guy...
 
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  • #221
@stefan r , have you given any more thought to my question? @russ_watters ?

You can see people who have lost their life savings gambling on investing in stonks. Some are asking for help on gofundme and their ilk, having lost their life savings in this chaos. What was the responsibility of the brokerages in this?

Oh, and GME is at $49.69 (down 5%, SP500 unchanged).
 
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  • #222
Vanadium 50 said:
What was the responsibility of the brokerages in this?
none, same as the casino
 
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  • #223
Greg Bernhardt said:
none, same as the casino
I would tend to agree, but Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying at $400 a share. Was that fair, or should they be praised? Or is it more a thanks, but no thanks, situation?
 
  • #224
russ_watters said:
I would tend to agree, but Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying at $400 a share. Was that fair, or should they be praised? Or is it more a thanks, but no thanks, situation?
I don't know the regulatory policies a brokerage has to comply with but in my mind, it's my money, my responsibility. If I want to put a $400 bet down at the blackjack table. That is my choice and I'd be pissed if the casino was like "nah man". I get that there was unprecedented manipulation going on, but that needs to be handled with new regulations perhaps, not the brokerage making judgement calls.
 
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  • #225
What Really Happened When Robinhood Suspended GameStop Trading?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/really-happened-robinhood-suspended-gamestop-130358363.html

When certain stocks become volatile, for example due to a coordinated effort to purchase them and boost their price, the clearing firm might charge more to settle the trades. Apps like Webull, M1 and Public all cited clearing firm charges when they suspended the trading of stocks like GME last month.
So Robinhood was not alone or unique.
 
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  • #226
Greg Bernhardt said:
none, same as the casino
+1 on that

I'm against any kind of nanny state regulations that try to keep idiots from being idiots.
 
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  • #227
russ_watters said:
but Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying at $400 a share.
It did not. Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying shares. Independent of which share, independent of the current price of that, and certainly independent of the future price evolution of it. A future price evolution that was partially influenced by the action of Robinhood and other brokers, of course.
Vanadium 50 said:
Oh, and GME is at $49.69 (down 5%, SP500 unchanged).
It has been around $50-60 since February 4. It's still somewhat volatile, but nothing like the situation 2-3 weeks ago.
 
  • #228
mfb said:
It did not. Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying shares. Independent of which share, independent of the current price of that, and certainly independent of the future price evolution of it.
Nonsense. You can't make the context go away by ignoring it.
 
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  • #229
You think Robinhood wouldn't get criticized if it stops users from buying Alaska Air tomorrow? How much does context matter if it gets criticized for stopping any stock at any time?

The trading stop of Gamestop got far more attention because it had a far larger impact, of course.
 
  • #230
Well, since we're back at it, I'd neglected to respond to this:
Vanadium 50 said:
I think your devils advocate-ee needs to ponder a few things:
  • If stocks can be said to have a price - at all - that prices needs to be able to move up and down with supply and demand. Just like tomatoes and aluminum foil.
  • Companies don't go out of business because their stock prices go low. Companies go out of business because people stop buying their stuff.
  • You can't put restrictions on sellers without those same restrictions applying to buyers. If you can't sell something, I can't buy it from you.
I do indeed believe that a significant fraction the Reddit crowd involved misunderstands at least two out of the three. I think the fundamental misunderstanding that drove the shenanigans here was Bullet #2.
If the devil's advocate-ee believes the "Wall Street Fat Cats" were colluding, that's illegal. The solution is not to collude them right back. Especially if the evidence is "everybody just knows they done it". That's not justice. That's lynching.
Lynching can't be justice? The System can't be stacked against the little guy? For my part, I don't disagree in principle with the concept of a righteous mob. But in this case, I believe the mob was both wrong on the ethical judgement and dumb to believe they could ultimately win.
In this case, I would also argue that the primary effect is to transfer wealth from one group of "Wall Street Fat Cats" to another. So if the goal is "to stick it to The Man", it's kind of a failure.
Agreed. The saddest/dumbest comments I saw were from those who were down 85% and still said it was worth the loss based on the "principle" of it all. They basically handed someone else a big bag of cash and still believe they "stuck it to him". And there were a lot of those posts.
 
  • #231
mfb said:
You think Robinhood wouldn't get criticized if it stops users from buying Alaska Air tomorrow?
Of course!
How much does context matter if it gets criticized for stopping any stock at any time?
I'm not even sure how to respond to that. The same action in different situations can have different motivations and can and should be judged differently. That's what "context" means.
 
  • #232
russ_watters said:
Of course! That's called context.
I asked in the negative, now I'm not sure how to interpret your answer.
Do you think they would get criticized?
If not: You really think people would just ignore that completely?
If yes: See, different context, but same action leads to the same response. The context didn't matter.

You made an extremely specific claim. That people criticized Robinhood for stopping them from buying [GameStop] at $400. Can you show who was so specific with their criticism?
russ_watters said:
The same action in different situations can have different motivations and can and should be judged differently.
You are trying to force a specific context into a situation that was independent of it. People would have criticized Robinhood for stopping any trade, at any value, with any history. Unless the stock stops being traded altogether or other corner cases that are not relevant here, obviously.
 
  • #233
mfb said:
I asked in the negative, now I'm not sure how to interpret your answer.
Do you think they would get criticized? [regarding Alaska Airlines]
Alaska Airlines is currently at $60. In this scenario, do they stop trading if it is still at $60 or has it suddenly jumped to $1000? That's context, and it matters.
If yes: See, different context, but same action leads to the same response. The context didn't matter.
The context matters for:
1. If the action would actually happen.
2. The motivation behind it.
3. If it would be criticized.
4. If the criticism would be correct/reasonable.

Any one of those could be changed based on the specifics of the scenario.
You made an extremely specific claim. That people criticized Robinhood for stopping them from buying [GameStop] at $400. Can you show who was so specific with their criticism?
What? I'm talking about reality here. Robinhood prevented people from buying Gamestop at $400 (about - I don't have the real number). The stock went very high very fast, and then Robinhood stopped trading on it. That's a statement of factual reality. It's what actually happened.
You are trying to force a specific context into a situation that was independent of it.
Nonsense. I made a statement about objective reality. What I said is what actually happened.

I think I see the problem here: the problem is you are reading past the facts into motivations that aren't being stated, and not stating what motivations and judgements you are reading, much less what you actually believe that is different.
People would have criticized Robinhood for stopping any trade, at any value, with any history. Unless the stock stops being traded altogether or other corner cases that are not relevant here, obviously.
Nonsense. Trading gets halted on individual stocks or entire markets at various levels, for various reasons. I don't think I've ever seen such a backlash against such a common action.
 
  • #234
Astronuc said:
So Robinhood was not alone or unique.
Not that I was in the market for it, but my investment company app had a notice about trading limitations as well.
 
  • #235
The empathy side of me feels for the man who had to explain to a group of people he lost more than five billion dollars of their money to a man with the online name of "Asspotato".

I'd just quit and move to another country.
 
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  • #236
russ_watters said:
Robinhood prevented people from buying Gamestop at $400
Yes, but I think you are ignoring the fact that this was NOT specifically because it had gone to 400 or any other price but because they didn't have the capital to cover further trades because of the total dollar volume on which they had to cover a 2-day float. If they had had the capital there would have been no reason for them to suspend trading regardless of the price.

They make money from the back end of the trades and there would have been no reason for them to stop doing that, and I don't believe they WOULD have stopped doing that, provided that they had had the capital to cover the float for the required 2 days.

They do not lose money on trades and they have no legal or moral imperative to stop idiots from being idiots, so as far as I can see the only reason they stopped the trading was their lack of capital to cover the float.

They immediately started raising capital so they could resume trading.
 
  • #237
phinds said:
Yes, but I think you are ignoring the fact that this was NOT specifically because it had gone to 400 or any other price but because they didn't have the capital to cover further trades because of the total dollar volume on which they had to cover a 2-day float. If they had had the capital there would have been no reason for them to suspend trading regardless of the price.
Yes, that's the cause-effect chain. You're not disagreeing with me:
  • The price went way up, very fast.
  • The clearinghouse requirements went up, very fast.
  • They didn't have the capital to cover future purchases.
  • They halted future purchases at those high prices.
They make money from the back end of the trades and there would have been no reason for them to stop doing that, and I don't believe they WOULD have stopped doing that, provided that they had had the capital to cover the float for the required 2 days.
Agreed. That's why the fiery public criticism of them we saw is conspiracy-theory-ridiculousness.
They do not lose money on trades and they have no legal or moral imperative to stop idiots from being idiots...
You and I (and Greg) do differ on the moral imperative, but that's ok. I don't think it was at play here.
 
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  • #238
While I recognize that capital supporting trade figured heavily, if not completely, into the calculation by Robinhood, I wonder how much this story weighed in their decision making. It is easier to wave people along when it is just money being gambled and lost, but when life is lost the decisions get harder. I only offer this to say the moral imperatives may not be so cut-and-dry.

EDIT: I apologize if this has already been brought up earlier in the thread; I didn't read through the entirety of it.
 
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  • #240
Haborix said:
While I recognize that capital supporting trade figured heavily, if not completely, into the calculation by Robinhood, I wonder how much this story weighed in their decision making. It is easier to wave people along when it is just money being gambled and lost, but when life is lost the decisions get harder. I only offer this to say the moral imperatives may not be so cut-and-dry.
Whether or not such issues figured into Robinhood's actions, it surprises me a great deal to see people expressing opinions that there are or should be near zero moral imperative here or in a casino. Even absent a care about the consequences for some people, there is a fine line between enabling freedom and exploitation.
 
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  • #241
phinds said:
Yes, but I think you are ignoring the fact that this was NOT specifically because it had gone to 400 or any other price but because they didn't have the capital to cover further trades because of the total dollar volume on which they had to cover a 2-day float. If they had had the capital there would have been no reason for them to suspend trading regardless of the price.

But the reason they had a total dollar volume problem was because the price had gone so high so fast.

They have two days to settle. That makes this effectively a 2-day futures contract. If the stock is this volatile, the contract gets expensive - that is reflected in (or is another name for) the settlement fees. Settlement fees go way up, and a broker who has no way to pass these along to their client loses money with every trade. So they stop.
 
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  • #242
russ_watters said:
it surprises me a great deal to see people expressing opinions that there are or should be near zero moral imperative here or in a casino.

How do you fix this? Casinos aside, if you wish.

Suppose Robbinhood made you enter (correct) maximum upside and maximum downside before executing any transaction. If the client doesn't understand the implications, they can't make the transaction. Would that be desirable? Would that be practical? Did you have something else in mind?
 
  • #243
russ_watters said:
I think I see the problem here: the problem is you are reading past the facts into motivations that aren't being stated
By posting one aspect you seem to assign importance to that aspect, if you want or not. As if Robinhood wouldn't have been criticized if that aspect had been different.

"but Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying at $400 a share." (your post)
"but Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying on Thursday"
"but Robinhood got criticized for preventing users from buying"

All three statements are factually correct, but they are not equivalent.
 
  • #244
A hearing of the House Financial Services Committee will happen tomorrow (Feb 18).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roaring-kitty-sued-securities-fraud-173103369.html, but citing losses of people who bought, not their own losses. Will be interesting to see how they manage to combine these two.
 
  • #245
Vanadium 50 said:
How do you fix this? Casinos aside, if you wish.

Suppose Robbinhood made you enter (correct) maximum upside and maximum downside before executing any transaction. If the client doesn't understand the implications, they can't make the transaction. Would that be desirable? Would that be practical? Did you have something else in mind?
On that sort of individual level I don't think it's possible. There's no easy way to even know if a guy is betting his $350 part time Starbucks paycheck on a share of GME from his mom's basement, and I'm not sure we should stop that. But many in the redditor army are too young to even rent a car. It's worth considering that investors should have qualifications. The quote in the article linked by @Haborix gives an insight:
The note found on his computer by his parents on June 12, 2020 [the day he killed himself], asked a simple question. “How was a 20 year old with no income able to get assigned almost a million dollars worth of leverage?”
I don't play in that world, so I don't even really understand what happened to him, to have an answer to that, but it would seem like he should not have been given a credit line from the casino Robinhood to bet with.

Broader, I agree with the existing market circuit breakers, which were triggered dozens of times on GME stock in the past few weeks. Their basic purpose is to interfere with irrational behavior.
 

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