What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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In summary, the key factors for victory in the 2008 Presidential Election were the candidates' ability to connect with voters, the state of the economy and the overall political climate, and the use of effective campaign strategies. Barack Obama's strong message of hope and change resonated with many Americans, while John McCain struggled to distance himself from the unpopular incumbent president, George W. Bush. The economic crisis of 2008 also played a significant role, with many voters looking for a candidate who could offer solutions to the financial struggles facing the country. Additionally, Obama's effective use of social media and grassroots organizing helped him secure a strong base of support and ultimately win the election.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #71
Favorability Ratings:

Code: 
Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0% 
Jul 01    Obama=27.6%    McCain=18.2%
Numbers above represent the difference: % that rate X favorably - % that rate X unfavorably.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
                                                        |
 
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  • #72
Rasmussen has a poll out today that should have McCain's new staff rethinking some of the states they've been taking for granted. According to the poll, Obama leads McCain by 5 points in Montana. That's a state that Bush won by 20% and 25%. But it's also a state that Clinton won narrowly in '92 and lost in '96.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/montana/toplines_montana_presidential_election_july_1_2008
 
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  • #73
From the end of the Dem Primary season to now (the last month) has been a good time for Obama stock on the Rasmussen markets.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

Over the last 20 days, GOP stock has seen 6 downgrades and 0 upgrades. On the other hand, Dem stock has seen 9 upgrades and 1 downgrade.Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177   |  338/200    293/245
                                                        |
 
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  • #74
Ridiculously early, and completely "out there" prediction #1: Among the states that close polls first (those in EST) McCain will need to win all of (FL, GA, NC, VA & IN) and one out of (MI, OH & PA) to have a reasonable chance of winning.

Among all these states currently, McCain seems to be strongest in GA (which is expected) followed by FL (not IN, or NC or VA)!
 
  • #75
Obama doesn't own a pet. He says he's going to buy his daughters a dog after the campaign is over, but that may be too late. He needs to get one right away! Otherwise, some may feel buying a dog will be the first campaign promise he'll break!

Among pet owners, McCain leads Obama 42% to 37%. Obama leads McCain by 48% to 34% among people who don't own a pet. Unfortunately for Obama, 63% of Americans own a pet.

Among dog owners, McCain leads Obama by 43% to 34%. McCain leads 41% to 38% among cat owners, but cat owners are kind of eccentric anyway. McCain probably has a very sizable lead among ferret owners, being a ferret owner himself, but there doesn't appear to be enough ferret owners to actually compile a meaningful sample.

Pet owners prefer McCain
 
  • #76
This may turn out to be a huge election season positive for Obama, if implemented correctly! :D
Vice President isn't the only high-level position that Barack Obama is currently trying to fill. It's been widely reported that – win or lose – the Obamas have promised their two daughters a dog after the presidential election. With 158 breeds registered by the American Kennel Club® (AKC®) – each with its own unique temperament, coat type, size, energy level and appearance – the search for a canine cabinet member is on.
...
In the true spirit of doggy democracy, the AKC is asking Americans to vote on the breed they think the Obama family should select. The short list of "canine candidates" chosen by the AKC are:
...

http://www.akc.org/news/index.cfm?article_id=3536
 
  • #77
He should get a mixed breed.
 
  • #78
Is that some sort of shot at him being mixed-race?
 
  • #79
It's a joke, not a shot. And I thought it worked on several levels, including the idea that Obama is multicultural.

I thought it was funny, if not the definitive answer.
 
  • #80
The Reps are rolling in money.
WASHINGTON - Republican John McCain raised more than $22 million in June for his presidential bid, his best fundraising performance of the year, and he ended the month with nearly $27 million cash on hand, the campaign announced Thursday.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said McCain and the national Republican Party together entered July with about $95 million in the bank. The Republican National Committee, which has been raising money jointly with McCain, collected nearly $26 million in June and had nearly $69 million on hand, officials said.

The campaign's fundraising has given McCain the ability to outspend Democratic rival Barack Obama on television advertising in key battleground states.
...
Davis said McCain and the RNC expect to raise a combined $95 million by the end of August. After that, McCain will stop fundraising and accept about $84 million in public funds. The RNC, however, would be able to continue fundraising and spending money to help McCain's presidential run.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.

In other news, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama tying McCain in North Dakota.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_dakota/toplines_north_dakota_presidential_election_july_8_2008
 
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  • #81
Gokul43201 said:
The Reps are rolling in money.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.

In other news, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama tying McCain in North Dakota.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_dakota/toplines_north_dakota_presidential_election_july_8_2008

I thought the point of public financing was that they are limited to spending 90 million, after the convention.
 
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  • #82
McCain can spend only 90 mil. But the RNC can spend any amount - as much as they can raise. There's only a cap on how much they can spend "in concert" with the McCain campaign. So, for instance, the last $3 million ad by the RNC said almost exactly the same things as the last McCain web ad, but since it was supposedly made without any co-ordination with the McCain campaign, it doesn't fall under the cap. The campaign finance system is still a huge mess.

In Obama's defense, he would have come under the cap about 10 days earlier, and his Primary ended about 3 months after McCain's. So if he accepted public financing, he'd have had a pretty stiff disadvantage anyway.
 
  • #83
Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                        |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177   |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188   |  306/232    293/245
                                                        |
 
  • #84
I've noticed the general election popular vote polls (Rasmussen, Gallup) tightening up over the last week or two. And today, for the first time since the end of May (when the head-to-heads were pretty close due to significant enthusiasm for Clinton), I saw a poll (Rasmussen) that reported a tie. This doesn't automatically point to a tightening of the electoral make-up, but it would be presumptuous to assume that it does not, without closer scrutiny (which is a complete waste of time, this early).

For a rough idea, see: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

For long term polling trends, see: http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php

Despite this tightening, the political markets appear to be increasingly upbeat about Obama, though there may just be the slightest hint of reversal in the trend (see link below).

Markets:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET
           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
June 26    $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
July 11    $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358

For the Iowa Market trend, see: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm
 
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  • #85
Update

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                        |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177   |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188   |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177   |  311/227    293/245
                                                        |
 
  • #86
Gokul43201 said:
The Reps are rolling in money.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.
...unless he raises over $60-$70 million a month from July through October.

And he's nearly getting there...

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Barack Obama's campaign raised $52 million last month, more than twice the amount of funds brought in by his rival, John McCain, according to campaign officials for the presumed Democratic presidential nominee.

Obama's campaign now has $72 million cash on hand, the term used to describe how much money they currently have to spend, campaign officials said Thursday.

The average donation to Obama in June was $68, the officials said, bringing the monthly total to more than twice the $22 million raised in May.
...
McCain's campaign raised $22 million in June, its best month yet. The campaign said that combined with the Republican National Committee, they have about $95 million cash on hand.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Note: The RNC raised about $26 million in June, while the DNC probably raised about $5 million, at best.
 
  • #87
Gokul43201 said:
The Reps are rolling in money.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.

Not if he can spin it right. If he can pull off calling McCain on his BS, i.e. taking public financing to be more "honest" and not accept money from lobbyists, while still getting backing from people that do, he can come out better.

The problem is that Obama has no spine and McCain for some reason can just smile to the camera and all his problems go away. And he's not even pretty or anything.

But, for Obama at least, fund raising time = campaigning time. Since most of his donors are individuals, it's a pretty good estimate of how much support he has. If he gets huge amounts of money and the news keeps reporting it like they have been, more people might want to find out why he's liked so much.
 
  • #88


Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                 |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227                       |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221                       |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
                                                                 |

Note: Pollster.com has released their first electoral map. I've added them to the mix.
 
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  • #89
After watching helplessly for 8 years as George Bush, who I think is the worst president in memory, even worse than Nixon, trashed the country and the world in our names, I have finally begun to contribute money to a political campaign, as have apparently many others. Especially to Obama, but also to senate and congressional campaigns.

There is this awful feeling that if the republicans win again, I won't have done enough to help recover the pride and dignity and reputation, as well as the real soul of the USA.
 
  • #90
McCain commercial blames Obama for the price of gasoline. I wonder how much of this type of crap we will have to see??

 
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  • #91
Next thing we'll see is a McCain ad saying it's Obama's fault we're in Iraq in the first place.
 
  • #92
now that obama is the odds on favorite to win, we will see everything possible used to attack him. there are billions of dollars riding on who becomes president. we have seen bush hand out such sums to his cronies over 8 years and they do not want to see it end. there is literally no limit to what the likes of karl rove, dick cheney, and their ilk will do to try to keep control of this power and wealth.
 
  • #93
mathwonk said:
now that obama is the odds on favorite to win, we will see everything possible used to attack him. there are billions of dollars riding on who becomes president. we have seen bush hand out such sums to his cronies over 8 years and they do not want to see it end. there is literally no limit to what the likes of karl rove, dick cheney, and their ilk will do to try to keep control of this power and wealth.

Let's all watch out for the inevitable October surprise.
 
  • #94
BREAKING NEWS: Israel is a strong friend of Israel.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/07/obama-wants-to.html
 
  • #95
mathwonk said:
now that obama is the odds on favorite to win, we will see everything possible used to attack him. there are billions of dollars riding on who becomes president. we have seen bush hand out such sums to his cronies over 8 years and they do not want to see it end. there is literally no limit to what the likes of karl rove, dick cheney, and their ilk will do to try to keep control of this power and wealth.
Oddly enough, with McCain's constant gaffes on ME politics, borders, etc, polls rate him as superior to Obama as a Commander in Chief. That's about the only metric in which he dominates, though, so the neo-cons' options are quite limited if they want to swing the election with a crisis. What will it be? An attack on Iran (initiated by a hawkish surrogate) or maybe an attack on Iran (initiated by a hawkish surrogate)?
 
  • #96
it is odd to me that mccain rates higher on anything, as he seems increasingly pitiful, a desperately sad old hack, trying only to please a constituency he once abhorred, having given up all his former quite laudable principles. it is really sad and disturbing to watch him, as he morphs further from the man he was. of course some others of us are not as young and vibrant as we used to be. but we are not running for president.
 
  • #97
edward said:
McCain commercial blames Obama for the price of gasoline. I wonder how much of this type of crap we will have to see??



This really is a mistake by McCain's campaign. Part of his appeal is being a candidate above that sort of ad.

I think his campaign has been pretty disjointed now that his opponent is someone like Obama instead of Romney. Romney made for an easy punching bag since he stood for nothing by time his handlers had repackaged him. Clinton really would have been a better opponent for McCain.

Meanwhile, Obama turned one attack (hasn't visited Iraq, Afghanistan, etc) into a huge plus when many felt making this trip was falling into a Republican trap.

The real campaign and the significant momentum shifts are still a month away from beginning, but, right now, I'd say the polls are more likley to swing in Obama's favor than McCain's.
 
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  • #98
BobG said:
This really is a mistake by McCain's campaign. Part of his appeal is being a candidate above that sort of ad.
One normally expects that a campaign generally brings out the worst in a candidate. I think with McCain, his failure to win a campaign that was run cleanly (2000) has him overapplying the slime. It's a sad thing to watch - but to be fair to McCain, he is giving the people exactly what they seem to be asking for. When was the last time that dirty campaigning lost you more votes that it won?
 
  • #99
Gokul43201 said:
One normally expects that a campaign generally brings out the worst in a candidate. I think with McCain, his failure to win a campaign that was run cleanly (2000) has him overapplying the slime. It's a sad thing to watch - but to be fair to McCain, he is giving the people exactly what they seem to be asking for. When was the last time that dirty campaigning lost you more votes that it won?

Well, it didn't cost many votes, but dirty campaigning in 1972 had some consequences.

You could come up with some examples in primaries, since the opposing supporters don't usually hate each other, but I doubt you could come up with any examples in a general election.

In the general, you just need to come up with the better name for your opponent. Calling your opponent a "pimp" works better than calling your opponent the "son of a whore that married a mulatto man with whom she had several children" (John Quincy Adams vs. Andrew Jackson). Know your audience! The kind of voter that's swayed by those kind of slurs doesn't have the capability of remembering a fifteen word slur.
 
  • #100


Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                 |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227                       |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221                       |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
                                                                 |

And here comes McCain with another incredibly slimy attack ad:

49hC9TpP_rY[/youtube] [url]http://...s-obamas-cancelled-troops-visit-in-new-tv-ad/

And Obama's response:

“John McCain is an honorable man who is running an increasingly dishonorable campaign. Senator McCain knows full well that Senator Obama strongly supports and honors our troops, which is what makes this attack so disingenuous. Senator Obama was honored to meet with our men and women in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan this week and has visited wounded soldiers at Walter Reed numerous times. This politicization of our soldiers is exactly what Senator Obama sought to avoid, and it’s not worthy of Senator McCain or the ‘civil’ campaign he claimed he would run,” said Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor.

FLASHBACK – Senator McCain in 2007: “How can we possibly find honor in using the fate of our servicemen to score political advantage in Washington? There is no pride to be had in such efforts. We are at war, a hard and challenging war, and we do no service for the best of us-those who fight and risk all on our behalf-by playing politics with their service.” [Congressional Record, 5/24/07]

And about other claims in the ad:

Barack Obama never held a single Senate hearing on Afghanistan.

Republican [Richard] Lugar’s spokesperson said criticism of Obama on not holding hearings on Afghanistan is unfair because NATO’s role in Afghanistan would be held before the full Foreign Relations Committee.

And incidentally, McCain has missed every single Armed Services Committee hearing in the last two years that discussed Afghanistan.

He voted against funding our troops.

AP Fact Check: “The ad’s most inflammatory charge — that Obama voted against troop funding in Iraq and Afghanistan — is misleading. The Illinois senator consistently voted to fund the troops once elected to the Senate, a point Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton made during the primaries when questioning whether his anti-war rhetoric was reflected in his actions.” [AP, 7/18/08]

John McCain is always there for our troops.

In 2005, Obama voted for and McCain voted against providing $360.8 million for armored tactical wheeled vehicles for units deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan and $5 million to establish ballistics engineering research centers at two major research institutions.
-- HR 2863 --

In 2005, Obama voted for and McCain voted against repealing the extension of capital gains tax cuts and use the savings to repair, rehabilitate or replace the equipment used by the Army and Marine Corps in Afghanistan & Iraq. A week later, prior to the issuance of a conference report regarding that measure, Obama voted for and McCain voted against a measure to “insist that conference report include funding to strengthen America’s military, as contained in Senate-passed amendment, instead of any extension of tax cuts for capital gains and dividends (which do not expire until 2009), as contained in House-passed bill.
-- HR 4297 --

For all that, and more, see: http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-response-to-mccain-ad-troops/
 
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  • #101


Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
June 26    $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
July 11    $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
July 26    $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
 
  • #102
How Obama Became Acting President (and I guess - soon to be the real one).
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/opinion/27rich.html :biggrin:
IT almost seems like a gag worthy of “Borat”: A smooth-talking rookie senator with an exotic name passes himself off as the incumbent American president to credulous foreigners. But to dismiss Barack Obama’s magical mystery tour through old Europe and two war zones as a media-made fairy tale would be to underestimate the ingenious politics of the moment. History was on the march well before Mr. Obama boarded his plane, and his trip was perfectly timed to reap the whirlwind.

. . . .

The growing Obama clout derives not from national polls, where his lead is modest. Nor is it a gift from the press, which still gives free passes to its old bus mate John McCain. It was laughable to watch journalists stamp their feet last week to try to push Mr. Obama into saying he was “wrong” about the surge. More than five years and 4,100 American fatalities later, they’re still not demanding that Mr. McCain admit he was wrong when he assured us that our adventure in Iraq would be fast, produce little American “bloodletting” and “be paid for by the Iraqis.”

. . . .

. . . First, on July 7, the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, dissed Bush dogma by raising the prospect of a withdrawal timetable for our troops. Then, on July 15, Mr. McCain suddenly noticed that more Americans are dying in Afghanistan than Iraq and called for more American forces to be sent there. It was a long-overdue recognition of the obvious that he could no longer avoid: both Robert Gates, the defense secretary, and Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had already called for more American troops to battle the resurgent Taliban, echoing the policy proposed by Mr. Obama a year ago.

. . . .

“We have one president at a time,” Mr. Obama is careful to say. True, but the sitting president, a lame duck despised by voters and shunned by his own party’s candidates, now has all the gravitas of Mr. Cellophane in “Chicago.” The opening for a successor arrived prematurely, and the vacuum had been waiting to be filled.

. . . .

Mr. McCain could also have stepped into the leadership gap left by Mr. Bush’s de facto abdication. His inability to even make a stab at doing so is troubling. . . .

. . . .
This is a great piece!
 
  • #103
the only thing that gives me some peace over fuming about the stupidity of the electorate, is the fact that bush actually did not win the popular election the first time. i.e. most people wanted an intelligent future nobel laureate over a mean spirited nitwit.

it appears as if obama will likely win this time, but even if he turns around every problem we face from the current admin, will the morons elect another george bush next time?

i mean what was so off putting abut the peace and prosperity of the clinton years that we got gwb?

i am getting discouraged, and fear celebrating too soon now. we could always wind up behind another republican, i.e. dishonest taxpayer gouging right wing, eight ball.

has anybody else noticed that we have less free press now than ever before in america? in the 60's we actually saw the carnage in vietnam, and then we put a stop to it. the ONLY lesson the repubs apparently learned from vietnam was that if you wanted to kill thousands of civilians in a foreign land unmolested, in the name of freedom, you should hide that fact from the public.

many americans today actually seem to care more that their gas prices are higher when they fill up their suv's, than that they are paying taxes to subsidise the deaths and dislocations of tens of thousands of innocent iraqis. where is the moral outrage to accompany the fiscal pain? we are doing something very evil and wrong, and the enemies we are making among ordinary citizens in arab countries are numerous and young.
 
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  • #104
mathwonk said:
i am getting discouraged, and fear celebrating too soon now. we could always wind up behind another republican, i.e. dishonest taxpayer gouging right wing, eight ball.

I'm more worried that Obama will end up being a huge let-down. He already F'ed up with the FISA bill and wanting to continue "faith based" garbage that Bush started.
 
  • #105


Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                 |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227                       |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221                       |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
                                                                 |

Markets:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
June 26    $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
July 11    $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
July 26    $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug  11    $59.2    $37.2      0.621   0.377

The markets have been shifting towards McCain over the last few weeks. What's causing it?
 

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