What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[Ivan Seeking]

I think the entire SE sector is in play. Look at the map of black demographics posted earlier.

Does anyone know the typical turnout for eligible black voters? I think it is something like 30%.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Also, McCain has limited resources and can only afford to work the swing States. Obama has the money to forge deep into classically Republican territory. There are quite a few red states that are in fact only pink.

And I for one will send Obama lots more money.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I had to laugh at McCains latest blooper: I will veto every beer...

 

[lisab]

I had to laugh at McCains latest blooper: I will veto every beer...

Freudian slip...thinking ahead to the end of the day, probably!

 

[turbo]

If he wants to veto every beer, Cindy is going to give him a swift kick in the crotch, cut him off financially and otherwise and banish him to commercial airlines.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It is almost poetic that McCain would be so close to "Busch" beer. It allows for a punch and spin that I expect Move-On will exploit before long. This slip almost begs for it.

 

[Gokul43201]

My prediction: This election will not be close (not like the last few we've had). If there's a huge Obama scandal that unfolds in the next 4 months then he'll lose, and lose big. Barring that, I expect him to beat McCain by at least 15 EVs and at least 5% of the popular vote.

 

[vAin21]

well probably all of us wants to have a good leader right? but in this generation we can't find our ideal politicians...not just like one i saw in pollcalsh...in USA presidential election is fast approaching as i saw this video Obama v. McCain: Setting the Tone maybe one of them got my ideal politician.. try to check it out, what you think after you heard their speeches

 

[Gokul43201]

Also, McCain has limited resources and can only afford to work the swing States. Obama has the money to forge deep into classically Republican territory. There are quite a few red states that are in fact only pink.

This statement is not accurate, though, in the coming months this may change. For the month of April, McCain + RNC matched Obama + DNC. In May, McCain + RNC did even better and net about $45 mil. We don't have Obama's May numbers, but I don't think he did much better (the DNC managed only about $4mil). The Reps have more cash in the bank than the Dems, right now (probably twice as much).

I just set up a recurring monthly donation. You should too!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It may not be representive of the last month or two, but I think it is accurate if you take into account Obama's 1/2 billion dollars raised so far. He also has the ability to raise much more that McCain simply will not be able to match. But that does assume that supporters keep on giving.

I won't make recurring donations just because I don't like automatic charges, but I plan to send some more money shortly, and then again at critical points in the campaign. Part of me is tempted to max-out if needed.

 

[Gokul43201]

An internal poll in Kansas conducted by a Democratic group (Cooper & Secrest) puts Obama only 4 points behind McCain there. It may be a bad poll, or it may be an interesting indicator. We'll have to wait and see.

Timeline of electoral map/projections (Obama/McCain):

Date        RCP        Elec-Vote       Elec-Proj      
06/06     228/190       287/227         293/245
06/15     238/190       304/221         304/234

 

[Manchot]

Do you foresee Obama taking any southern state other than MO, VA or NC (not counting FL as "Southern")?

As someone from Missouri, I am offended by the notion that it is a southern state.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Woohoo!

... According to the poll, Hispanic voters are backing Obama by a margin of 62 to 28 percent.[continued]

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1814676,00.html

...Obama now leads John McCain by six points nationwide, the new poll said, about twice the margin reported in May...

 

[Gokul43201]

An internal poll in Kansas conducted by a Democratic group (Cooper & Secrest) puts Obama only 4 points behind McCain there. It may be a bad poll, or it may be an interesting indicator. We'll have to wait and see.

A new Rasmussen poll in KS gives McCain +10. So I'm not giving much weight to the previous C&S internal poll numbers.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/kansas/toplines_kansas_general_election_june_11_2008

 

[Gokul43201]

A summary of the political make-up of likely swing states in the following format: State, Party affiliations of Gov., Sen1 and Sen2, Dems/Reps in the House.

NC  D  R  R  7/6
VA  R  D  R  3/8
IN  R  D  R  5/4    
IA  D  R  D  3/2
MO  R  D  R  4/5
OH  D  D  R  7/11
PA  D  R  D 11/8
NH  D  R  R  2/0
FL  R  D  R  9/16
NV  R  D  R  1/2
NM  D  R  D  2/1
CO  D  R  D  4/3

I think GA, MS, KS and LA will also come into play this year but most pundits disagree.

 

[Gokul43201]

Quinnipiac U has just released polling results of a swing state threefer:

FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43;
OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42;
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40
...

While Democrats support the idea, independent voters in each state say Obama should not choose Sen. Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Results are:

* Florida: Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 57 - 33 percent while Republicans are opposed 59 - 17 percent and independents oppose it 46 - 37 percent;

* Ohio: Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent;

* Pennsylvania: Democrats say yes to Clinton 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans say no 63 - 20 percent and independents nix the idea 49 - 36 percent.

https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Barack Obama faced a difficult choice. If he accepted public financing, he would lose the advantage he has in fund raising. On the other hand, if he opted out, he would be branded a liar. Today, Obama opted out. This is probably a wise choice. With enough money he can fool more ignorant people into voting for him than he will lose by disgusting any others. Perhaps it's true after all, that candidates for President can never be better than the people who vote for them. Ever the optimist, I'm holding out for better.

 

[Gokul43201]

Some folks may not have noticed, but McCain has been running a privately funded general election campaign for the last 4 months, and probably an illegal one at that. And that's just one of many aspects to this story.

PS: Does anyone have links to the actual commitments that McCain and Obama signed?

 

[lisab]

Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

I've just spent all week in North Carolina, and the people I met with tended to be very conservative - lively and friendly, but definitely way-to-the-right politically. It's refreshing to come home to this sort of news!

 

[Gokul43201]

There's a new poll out in GA, saying just what I had predicted a couple posts ago. Of course, it is only a single poll, and thus has the potential for a large error bar, but it will definitely make some GOP strategists worry.

(6/20/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research.

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia....008/6-20-08/Poll_Position_Georgia62019643.php

And in other news:

MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson.

MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf.

By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below $50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend.

To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over $5,000.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/moveon_to_close_its_527.php

 

[Gokul43201]

Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

             Aggregates of Current Polls                |     Projections
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
                                                        |

NOTE: Some pollsters (in the Aggregates column) do not count toss-up states
RCP1: does not include toss-up states
RCP2: includes toss-ups

 

[Gokul43201]

Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain...

That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).

 

[WarPhalange]

Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

Yeah, but Dukakis had the same kind of lead in polls (I think I remember hearing that it was actually the same Newsweek poll even) over Bush Sr. in '88.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).

McCain can only spend $85 million. Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.

Correction to an earlier statement: It had been reported that Obama had already raised almost 1/2 billion, but now the bean counters put this at about $285 million.

 

[Gokul43201]

McCain can only spend $85 million.

That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.

Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.

Obama has about $45 mil on hand as of the end of May. McCain has a similar amount.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.

All right all right, I'm sending more money!

 

[Gokul43201]

Tracking Favorability Ratings:

Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0%

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/favorable.html

 

[Gokul43201]

The largest single day change in the RCP(2) electoral map happened today, after a handful of poll numbers came out. The electoral lead for Obama went up from +40 (289/249) to +96 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10).

I expect the bump came from flipping MI and IN (IN is way closer than MI, but Romney could easily flip MI back if he's on the ticket).

 

[Gokul43201]

The political markets can be pretty good indicators near the end of a race, though less useful this early.

Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
Obama = $64.1, up by $7 since the primaries ended
McCain = $32.4, down by $5 over the same period

Iowa Electronic Market - Winner takes all (IEM-WTA): http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html
Dem = 0.622
Rep = 0.378Update: Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240  
                                                        |

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.

 

[Gokul43201]

Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.

Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.

Yes, I knew better. It was an unintentional misstatement on my part.

I am a bit dangerous right now. I went two days without sleep in order to meet a do or die deadline.

 

[Gokul43201]

To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:

On the television in his living room, Peterman has watched enough news and campaign advertisements to hear the truth: Sen. Barack Obama, born in Hawaii, is a Christian family man with a track record of public service. But on the Internet, in his grocery store, at his neighbor's house, at his son's auto shop, Peterman has also absorbed another version of the Democratic candidate's background, one that is entirely false: Barack Obama, born in Africa, is a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/

I had been wondering if something would come out saying that he was not born in america, making him ineligible for the presidential office.

 

[Gokul43201]

Not anyone but desperate rumor mongers...and maybe Fox, but I repeat myself.

Anyhow, if you want to get an idea for how people "think" politically, you go to a focus group. And if you want to look at a real, good one, you go to Hart-Annenberg (nothing like the pop-sci focus groups held by the cable news stations, though some exceptions exist).

The latest Hart-Annenberg focus group was telelcast on C-SPAN today and is available on their website. Here's a great write-up on Peter Hart, the vetran pollster that organizes the focus group:

Peter Hart, a prominent Democratic pollster and focus group leader for three decades, was working for former vice president Walter F. Mondale, running that year for the Democratic presidential nomination against Sen. Gary Hart.
ad_icon

Hart thumped Mondale in the New Hampshire primary, producing "a tsunami that swept over the Mondale campaign," Peter Hart remembers. "Gary Hart appeared on the cover of all three newsweeklies. Everything was Hart." He was sent to Georgia, site of the next, suddenly crucial, primary to test a commercial attacking Hart before a focus group.

"I tested this negative ad and everybody in the focus group booed. I spent the whole session hearing how Hart was new and young and marvelous and Mondale was everything else. About 80 minutes into the session I realized I had nothing" to help Mondale.

"So I turned to them and said, 'Let me give you a situation. Imagine the country is in a terrible recession, unemployment is rising, it's very bad. Who do you want as president?' All 12 people wanted Hart. 'He's young, vibrant, he'll get the country moving again.' Mondale? 'Old, stale, tired, part of the old way of doing things . . .' Then I said, 'Imagine the country in an international crisis -- not a nuclear war but a serious crisis, when the red phone is being used. Who would you want as president? Twelve hands went up for Mondale. 'He's tested, he's stable, he's mature, he's seasoned, well versed, et cetera.' And Hart? 'Rash, new, untested . . .' "

Hart reported these reactions to the Mondale campaign, which quickly produced a new television commercial featuring a red telephone with a flashing orange light. A narrator intoned:

"The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issue of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing. And that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale."

Mondale won in Georgia, and kept this ad on the air in all the states that later held primaries. "The Hart people never had an answer to it," Peter Hart recalls.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/29/AR2008062901875.html

C-SPAN has the video on their front page: http://www.c-span.org/