COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[russ_watters]

Sounds like a likely case of "died with COVID" vs "died of COVID" to me.

It's very odd that a judge would announce such a thing - apparently on Twitter.

It looks like a daily county press release and follow-up briefing to me. Why the article links it from twitter is what I find most odd. Presumably these are posted on a county website. It would agree it is odd that a judge gave/participated in such a briefing though.

[edit]
Well that was easy: https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/judge-press-releases.php

 

[PeroK]

Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising Coronavirus cases

Belgium has had more cases in the past two weeks (115,000) than Sweden has had in total (109,000). France had 41,600 cases today alone. And Switzerland over 5,000 cases today (a country of only 8.6 million).

 

[mfb]

... at a time where these countries relaxed regulations.

Belgium does over twice as many tests as Sweden by the way (both absolute and per capita as the population is similar).
Overall, Belgium performed 3.7 million tests and found 250,000 cases, while Sweden as of Oct 4 performed 1.8 million tests and found 127,000 cases. That's almost exactly the same rate of positive tests.

 

[PeroK]

Belgium does over twice as many tests as Sweden by the way (both absolute and per capita as the population is similar).
Overall, Belgium performed 3.7 million tests and found 250,000 cases, while Sweden as of Oct 4 performed 1.8 million tests and found 127,000 cases. That's almost exactly the same rate of positive tests.

Belgium (pop 11.6 million) had 16,700 cases yesterday - which is, I believe, by far the highest daily total per capita for any major country at any time. And, it takes them to over 130,000 cases in just 15 days. You cannot compare this with Sweden's 127,000 cases in eight months.

This "tsunami" of cases in Belgium must be hammering their health service (and, in fact, the deputy PM is in intensive care with Coronavirus). Meanwhile, Belgium already has the second highest per capita death rate (after Peru) of any major country.

And, although Belgium is by far the worst in Europe now, there are many European countries with high numbers (I'll spare you the list), but Sweden is not among them. Compared to the rest of Europe, it's still largely under control in Sweden.

 

[PeroK]

PS This site gives a list of cases per capita across Europe for the last seven days. The Czech Republic is actually slightly worse than Belgium, with almost 600 cases per 100,000 per day. Sweden is near the bottom (lowest number of cases) next to Germany with 56 cases per 100,000 per day.

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

 

[Vanadium 50]

Sweden is near the bottom (lowest number of cases)

Yeah, but Sweden is Just Plain A Bad Country, as discussed upthread.

But that's not what UI wanted to write about. France has imposed an overnight curfew. Is the thinking that it's easier to catch Covid at night?

 

[anorlunda]

France has imposed an overnight curfew. Is the thinking that it's easier to catch Covid at night?

My guess is yes. My guess is that social drinking of alcohol is a major contributor to spreading. The whole reason that people drink socially is to reduce inhibitions. Then, they stand closer and speak louder.

The obvious counter to that is prohibition. In the USA that is perhaps the most hated word in our history. Alcohol taxes are also vitally important to governments. With the wine culture in France, it is even harder to even think of prohibition. It would be political suicide to utter that word in public.

My guess is that nighttime curfews are an attempt to reduce public drinking without completely banning it. People could continue to drink in their homes because it is not drinking per se but public drinking that spreads the virus.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, then why wait until 0600 to end it?

At 0600, people are already leaving for work. These tend not to be the most affluent, so there is definitely a disparate impact.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

With new Coronavirus cases shattering records on a daily basis, Utah’s hospitals are expected to begin rationing care in a week or two.

According to a friend, two COVID-19 patients from Montana have been received at Harborview hospital in Seattle. Apparently they cannot receive the necessary care (ECMO) in Montana. According to Harborview, Harborview Medical Center is the only Level I adult and pediatric trauma and regional burn center in Washington, Alaska, Montana and Idaho!

Update (Oct 27) - An 18-year-old freshman at the University of Dayton in Ohio died Thursday “apparently due to complications from" coronavirus, school officials said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/obitua...sity-dayton-apparently-dies-covid-19-n1244790

According to the University of Dayton’s Covid-19 dashboard, which has tracked Covid-19 cases since Aug. 10, the school reported 34 active people with the virus and a total of 1,417 cases, as of Monday morning.

Fatalities are happening to young folk.

 

[StevieTNZ]

NZ has beaten a second wave of COVID-19, but apparently some are not happy about it

See for eg https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertai...nd-covid-response/J645WLL7EOVZM2N2V7UGCFJZZ4/

 

[ChemAir]

NZ has beaten a second wave of COVID-19, but apparently some are not happy about it

See for eg https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/covid-19-coronavirus-fox-news-host-laura-ingraham-attacks-new-zealand-covid-response/

Bad link for me.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Bad link for me.

Yup, the original didn't paste as well as I had thought. Have edited the post to lead to the correct web page.

 

[mfb]

It was used by Ingraham to suggest that the policy was new and in response to "rising Covid case numbers".

Cases in the community are up 300%! From 0 to 0.

Meanwhile the US has set new records for new recorded cases. ~70,000/day, now increasingly from more rural states.

 

[StevieTNZ]

There is some criticism that schools should stay closed, while others say its fine to open them.

What amazes me is perhaps probably the first time ever, Barron Trump has been used as an example of why schools should re-open. According to Trump, he overcame Covid-19 in 15 mins. That has got to be a world-first.

Read for yourself -- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/co...in-some-us-states/DTMXPIZTEXJZ67OVRKQSNVV74E/

(note this post is not intended to be political)

 

[russ_watters]

Cases in the community are up 300%! From 0 to 0.

Meanwhile the US has set new records for new recorded cases. ~70,000/day, now increasingly from more rural states.

Cases in the USA are up 300% from 350,000/day to a new record of 70,000/day!

 

[mfb]

Cases in the USA are up 300% from 350,000/day to a new record of 70,000/day!

Huh?

 

[russ_watters]

Huh?

Weren't you listing two examples of nonsensical statistics? I was just combining them into one.

...Though there is meaning in both, if you look for it.

 

[mfb]

The 300% up was a joke, because that's the only way you can read "increasing numbers" into New Zealand's handling of the pandemic, by making nonsensical comparisons like that.

The US numbers are not a joke.

 

[russ_watters]

The 300% up was a joke, because that's the only way you can read "increasing numbers" into New Zealand's statistics, by making nonsensical comparisons like that.

The US numbers are not a joke.

Aren't they similarly nonsensical? Really, you don't see it?

 

[mfb]

If you have a point then make it, but these questions are silly.

 

[russ_watters]

If you have a point then make it, but these questions are silly.

Your point/joke, not mine. You listed/acknowledged one nonsensical statistic, then evidently listed another that you don't (but should) realize is nonsensical as well, for a similar or even worse reason (the baseline is arbitrary or just plain wrong). The way you wrote the post, it almost implies you intended irony, but I figured not.

So here it is:
The second statistic is also nonsensical because in March/April the testing missed somewhere on the order of 80-90% of the infections. Thus, the "new record" of 70,000 is "up" from the prior record of 150-300,000 (based on data from March/April).

 

[mfb]

Meanwhile the US has set new records for new recorded cases. ~70,000/day, now increasingly from more rural states.

It's a new record for recorded cases. Like it or not.
We wasted so many posts just on re-iterating that the US failed to find most infections in March/April (which makes NZ look even better in comparison, of course)? You could have written that instead of making some obscure comparisons.

 

[Astronuc]

Airborne Transmission of COVID-19: Q&A with Jonathan Samet
Feature Story | October 26, 2020
https://www.nationalacademies.org/n...nsmission-of-covid-19-q-a-with-jonathan-samet

A: The science has advanced rapidly on airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, not surprisingly given the many gaps in understanding and the urgency of filling them. Above all, I was impressed by the strength of the evidence for airborne transmission by both larger particles (droplets) and smaller particles (aerosols). Transmission by aerosols is particularly important because they can travel across rooms. The workshop took on the challenge of carefully defining droplets and aerosols and made a proposal about the size cut-off dividing them. This should help to bring some uniformity to discussions of airborne transmission.

During the workshop we also learned more about the size range of aerosols generated by people infected with SARS-CoV-2. These aerosols were shown to be an important transmission pathway by the presenters. The workshop also touched on concentrations of the virus in the air under different circumstances, and how the highest concentrations of aerosols are closest to an infected person. These discussions have important implications for mitigation measures like masks and physical distancing.

But, CDC indicates young people are most unlikely to wear a mask:
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-young-people-most-likely-not-wear-mask-190030605.html

 

[PeroK]

So here it is:
The second statistic is also nonsensical because in March/April the testing missed somewhere on the order of 80-90% of the infections. Thus, the "new record" of 70,000 is "up" from the prior record of 150-300,000 (based on data from March/April).

If you look at the worldwide figures, the daily total has risen from about 80,000 cases per day in March to nearly 500,000 cases per day now. On the other hand, the number of daily deaths worldwide has remained in the 5,000 - 7,000 range with little overall variation from month to month.

PS In fact, it has never returned to its March peak.

To take Italy as an example: the daily cases now are 20,000+ per day, compared with 6,000 at the peak in March; but, the daily deaths are around 200 per day (this is still bad), but not close to the 800+ per day back in March.

 

[mfb]

Some of that decrease comes from improved treatment. Hospitalizations can be a better comparison. They are quite high in many European countries at the moment. Still not perfect, of course.
Here is Italy. As of Oct 26 it was at half its earlier peak, but with a rapid rise.
It's excluding ICU but adding these doesn't change the picture.

 

[Tendex]

Some of that decrease comes from improved treatment.

Very little if anything, there is no actual improved treatment in the full sense of the word, just a better use of corticoids and little more.

 

[Astronuc]

The ICU at Tampa General Hospital in Tampa, Fla., was 99% full this week, according to an internal report produced by the federal government. It's among numerous hospitals the report highlighted with ICUs filled to over 90% capacity.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...hospitalization-data-the-government-keeps-hid

Last week University of Utah hospital's ICU was at 99% capacity with Covid patients. The hospital has warned health districts in surrounding states that out-of-state transfers may be suspended.


https://healthcare.utah.edu/coronavirus/
https://healthcare.utah.edu/coronavirus/#maskingfacts

The US reported 88,452 positive confirmed and probable cases on Thursday, according to https://covidtracking.com/data/national/cases
with 46,095 hospitalizations
https://covidtracking.com/data/national/hospitalization

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alison...tudy-finds-tennessee-vanderbilt/#669731b9623e

Covid-19 hospitalizations in Tennessee have risen at a far lower rate in areas that have mask-wearing mandates than those that don’t, a new analysis from Vanderbilt University researchers found, reinforcing evidence showing that face masks play a significant role in slowing Coronavirus transmission.

 

[PeroK]

The US reported 88,452 positive confirmed and probable cases on Thursday, according to https://covidtracking.com/data/national/cases

It's interesting to note that the number of cases per capita is now higher in Europe. The US figures represent about 270 people per million testing postive per day. Much of Europe is higher than that now. Belgium has the highest rate of 24,000 new cases yesterday from a population of 11.6 million. That's over 2000 people per million in one day.

The UK has reached more than 20,000 cases per day, which is about 300 cases per million - slightly higher than the US.

 

[atyy]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alison...tudy-finds-tennessee-vanderbilt/#669731b9623e

"The researchers note that areas that have mask requirements also have “greater changes in other community behavior” that could reduce Covid-19 transmission, so the lower hospitalization rates may not be attributable to masks alone."

It's good that the news item indicates that because the study is correlational, we don't know how much of the effect is due to mask wearing.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Last week University of Utah hospital's ICU was at 99% capacity with Covid patients.

I'm trying to wrap my head around this, since they say they have a 12 bed Covid ICU. What does 99% mean? Eleven? Usually 12 but sometimes 11?

There are 338 total Covid hospitalizations in the entire state.

 

[PeroK]

I'm trying to wrap my head around this, since they say they have a 12 bed Covid ICU. What does 99% mean? Eleven? Usually 12 but sometimes 11?

My guess is it's how many hours the units are occupied - that might be only 20 hours per week (out of 12 x 168) that any unit was free.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The Hon Donald J Trump says:

More Testing equals more Cases. We have best testing.

Wouldn't it be nice if more testing equals less cases, ie more negative results?

 

[Vanadium 50]

My guess is it's how many hours the units are occupied

That makes sense, but when you look more closely, there is an issue. Treat this as a classic Poisson process. How many person-hours of need are there such that 1% of the hours of a 12 bed ICU are free? About 21.5 persons times 168 hours.

So if one wants an alarming statistic, why pick 99%? Why not compare 21.5 to 12?

 

[Astronuc]

I'm trying to wrap my head around this, since they say they have a 12 bed Covid ICU. What does 99% mean? Eleven? Usually 12 but sometimes 11?

There are 338 total Covid hospitalizations in the entire state.

I was puzzled by the 99%, and I thought a better statement would be "near capacity". However, I looked into the situation and found the following:

The hospital normally has room for 111 ICU patients, Vinik said. With the makeshift ICU, there is room for 134 patients — but with 115 patients admitted as of Friday, there was room for only 19 more, he said. The hospital had been adding three or four ICU patients each week — but with 1,496 new cases Friday, Utah saw its weekly rate of new cases reach unprecedented levels this week, and that means even more new ICU patients are likely on the way.

October 25 - https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/16/utah-has-more/
Earlier the article it states

University of Utah Hospital was bringing in doctors and nurses for overtime shifts Friday to staff new beds after its ICU reached “more than 100% capacity,” said hospital spokeswoman Suzanne Winchester.

Back on October 16/17 - https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/16/utah-has-more/ - they reached 100% capacity, so it seems they added capacity, and that became full, so it seems they added more capacity again.

There is a surgical ICU that has a capacity of 12, and a cardiovascular ICU with a capacity of 20, but the Covid ICU is a separate facility apparently.
https://medicine.utah.edu/anesthesiology/critical-care/

 

[mfb]

That makes sense, but when you look more closely, there is an issue. Treat this as a classic Poisson process. How many person-hours of need are there such that 1% of the hours of a 12 bed ICU are free? About 21.5 persons times 168 hours.

So if one wants an alarming statistic, why pick 99%? Why not compare 21.5 to 12?

It's not a Poisson statistics. The turnaround time is long, so you can't expect a long-term statistics to be relevant. Maybe they had three beds free three weeks ago but that's not what the current capacity is. People who arrive at the hospital when there is no ICU bed will be put in a regular bed and moved to ICU as soon as there is a bed free. The list of people who would profit from an ICU bed (but don't die immediately outside) could be long, too.