COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[StatGuy2000]

The first effective COVID-19 vaccine will rake in trillions in profits.

I've worked in the pharmaceutical sector for years, including at a pharma company division specializing in various types of vaccines, and have worked as a biostatistician on several vaccine trials.

Research on vaccine development can be time-consuming and expensive due to the strong requirement for safety testing and testing of immunogenicity, organization of sites for clinical trial testing, etc. And that is just on the Phase I-III clinical trial testing phase. Any early development of vaccines involve animal and/or genomic work, not to mention ramping up production, often using production facilities already devoted to other types of vaccines (flu, MMR, diphtheria, etc.)

On top of all of that, vaccines are typically purchased from the pharma companies to public health agencies across different nations, where prices are generally negotiated and fixed.

The upshot is that while a COVID-19 vaccine can potentially be profitable for the pharma company developing it, it will not rake in trillions. Not even close.

 

[Buzz Bloom]

I had trouble accessing
https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...edia-briefing-on-covid-19-on-13-february-2020 .
I was able to read
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/...rector-who-health-emergencies-programme-media.
I do not know if this RELIEFWEB report has different information from the WHO report.

 

[gmax137]

The first effective COVID-19 vaccine will rake in trillions in profits.

As they say in the homework forum, "always carry your units"

 

[kadiot]

There's a seasonality to many respiratory viruses. Will COVID19 follow a similar pattern?

Northern Hemisphere head into spring. Could there be less decreased trasmission there?

The Southern half of the globe is headed into fall and winter. Cod there be increased transmission there?

Opps, I almost forgot. I was thinking about Trillions Philippine Peso. Please be patient about me. I'm just a babysitter self-studying some subjects.

 

[david2]

one confirmed infection in my home town. It is getting close. yikes!

 

[atyy]

one confirmed infection in my home town. It is getting close. yikes!

Are we allowed to ask where that is?

 

[david2]

It is a small town in Holland named Oss.

 

[kadiot]

one confirmed infection in my home town. It is getting close. yikes!

As more countries declared outbreaks, it becomes increasingly harder to prevent new cases from coming in since it can literally come from anywhere.

 

[StatGuy2000]

There's a seasonality to many respiratory viruses. Will COVID19 follow a similar pattern?

Northern Hemisphere head into spring. Could there be less decreased trasmission there?

The Southern half of the globe is headed into fall and winter. Cod there be increased transmission there?

Hard to say, although that is a distinct possibility.

Since the bulk of the person-to-person transmissions for COVID-19 thus far has taken place in the Northern Hemisphere (even Singapore, which reported the most #s of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia, falls right at the southernmost boundaries of the Northern Hemisphere), so a change in season could potentially lead to decreased transmission, thus giving more time for both containment efforts and developments for antivirals or vaccines.

 

[Rive]

There's a seasonality to many respiratory viruses. Will COVID19 follow a similar pattern?

Actually, I think it would better to have a 'slow burning' but continuous spreading through summer.
I see very little chance that it'll ever disappear, and I would prefer a hot summer over an exploding autumn. That would provide a decent amount of people already immune to slow down what's still ahead.

 

[mfb]

The bulk of people lives in the Northern Hemisphere: 90% of the world population, to be specific. The other 10% are mainly in South America and parts of Africa where people are not traveling outside the continent that often.

Singapore is so close to the equator that it doesn't have summer/winter (temperature difference is ~1 C), it just has a rainy season (Nov-Dec) and the rest of the year.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

According to Google, average high/low temperatures in Singapore in Feb are 31/25°C (89/77°F).

However, it is worth noting that Singapore has had more success than other nations in controlling the spread of the virus, though this may be due to a fast and aggressive response and not necessarily be related to the weather: https://fortune.com/2020/02/28/singapore-coronavirus-contained-response/

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

American Chemistry Council

https://www.americanchemistry.com/News_and_Resources/

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)—Fighting Productsi

The American Chemistry Council's (ACC) Center for Biocide Chemistries (CBC) has compiled a list of products that have been pre-approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for use against emerging enveloped viral pathogens and can be used during the 2019 novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. This product list is not exhaustive but can be used by business owners, health professionals, and the public to identify products suitable for use against COVID-19.

The information in this document is being provided as a public service. All efforts have been made to ensure the information is accurate, but ACC and CBC make no representations or warranties as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. ACC, CBC, and the product manufacturers listed in this document reserve the right to change, delete, or otherwise modify the information without any prior notice. Persons receiving this information must make their own determination as to a product's suitability prior to use based on the product labeling. ACC and CBC do not guarantee or warrant the standard of any product referenced or imply approval of the product to the exclusion of others that may be available. All products listed are registered for labeled uses in accordance with federal laws and regulations as of the date this document is being made available. State regulations may vary. In no event will ACC or CBC be responsible for damages of any nature whatsoever resulting from the use of or reliance upon products to which the information refers. For use of the product, please contact the company/distributor to confirm use directions, or consult the EPA approved label at

https://www.americanchemistry.com/Novel-Coronavirus-Fighting-Products-List.pdf

 

[kyphysics]

So, most cases of death have been in "older" individuals.

Is there any information detailing what percentage of older people end up dying? And, if so, are there details as to whether these individuals were already physically "compromised" in some way?

I guess what I'm wondering is IF you have a HEALTHY senior, would the chances of that person dying be any different from a healthy prime-aged man or woman (let's say someone in their 30's and 40's)?

I can't tell if older people are dying more from coronavirus, because the virus affects them people of older age more inherently or if people of an older age more often have "other" health problems going on that COMBINED with the virus leads to a higher fatality rate.

 

[chirhone]

Later today I'll receive the item and package from china (although travel from and to china in my country is restricted, but they can ship any package at will):

Supposed it were contaminated with COVID-19. What is the proper way to decontaminate it? I can't just wipe it with alcohol because the metal can rust (?). What would be the best solutions to wipe it with (using hand gloves).

Is there possibility for the material to hae COVID-19 in the surface and then later it can detach and float in the air?

This is still in the spirit of containment efforts of this dreaded pathogen.

 

[Klystron]

Your doorstop looks enameled to inhibit rust. Alcohol wipes should not induce rust.

 

[kadiot]

So, most cases of death have been in "older" individuals.

Is there any information detailing what percentage of older people end up dying? And, if so, are there details as to whether these individuals were already physically "compromised" in some way?

I guess what I'm wondering is IF you have a HEALTHY senior, would the chances of that person dying be any different from a healthy prime-aged man or woman (let's say someone in their 30's and 40's)?

I can't tell if older people are dying more from coronavirus, because the virus affects them people of older age more inherently or if people of an older age more often have "other" health problems going on that COMBINED with the virus leads to a higher fatality rate.

Yes. I wish the WHO will release not just plain numbers, equally important is the profiles of those patients prior to getting infected by Covid19: age, sex, comorbidities, and other risk factors to infection. However, I understand that they’re prioritizing other important things. Singapore is doing it in Singapore's MOH website.

 

[phinds]

I can't just wipe it with alcohol because the metal can rust (?).

Huh? You do realize, I hope, that alcohol would just evaporate off (after possibly killing the germs). It certainly won't cause rust. I would just wipe it down with hand sanitizer.

 

[mfb]

China has listed their cases broken down by age, by previous medical condition and a bit more:
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

Out of all patients with data, 74% had no "comorbid tension" - but only 33% of the patients who died were in that group. Cardiovascular disease came with a factor ~5 higher death rate, diabetes with a factor ~4, hypertension with a factor ~3. Note that these are all highly correlated with age, so it's not a comparison of a patient with/without that condition at the same age!

 

[kyphysics]

Yes. I wish the WHO will release not just plain numbers, equally important is the profiles of those patients prior to getting infected by Covid19: age, sex, comorbidities, and other risk factors to infection. However, I understand that they’re prioritizing other important things. Singapore is doing it in Singapore's MOH website.

Love the detectives we have on this forum!

 

[bhobba]

China has listed their cases broken down by age, by previous medical condition and a bit more:

Whoops. Sorry guys, this was a post about the prevelance of just one comorbid condition, Diabetes. But after reading MFB's and others posts more carefully I think we need more data before discussing this.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kyphysics]

China has listed their cases broken down by age, by previous medical condition and a bit more:
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

Out of all patients with data, 74% had no "comorbid tension" - but only 33% of the patients who died were in that group. Cardiovascular disease came with a factor ~5 higher death rate, diabetes with a factor ~4, hypertension with a factor ~3. Note that these are all highly correlated with age, so it's not a comparison of a patient with/without that condition at the same age!

Going to have to wait until I can use a public computer before clicking that link. So, yeah, from what you've posted, it seems that perhaps age, alone, does not necessarily tell us much in terms of fatality risk. It's if the person has pre-existing infirmities where there are these higher rates of death, no?

I get that some of those higher factor deaths associated with people having certain conditions is related to age in that older people tend to have those conditions. But, it's still those pre-existing infirmities that have higher factor fatality correlations and not age (inherently), right?

I.e., what if you had a healthy older person compared to a healthy younger person. Or, what if you had an unhealthy (diabetes) 30-something person compared with a 70-something healthy person? Would the 30-something diabetic show higher rates of death than the 70-something healthy individual?

 

[kyphysics]

Absolutely not. It's important to keep in mind that the risk of someone contracting COVID-19 in the US and Canada is very low. So @kyphysics , you are not at high risk. So long as you practice basic hygiene, such as washing your hands and avoid touching your face, you should be fine.

As for the effect on elections -- that depends on how COVID-19 will play out, but I don't see much of an impact at all in the US.

And for goodness sake, there is no reason to avoid hotels or public bathrooms or cancelling your trip! That's an overreaction.

Speaking of myself, I'm living my life in exactly the same way as I've done before. No change.

By the way, it's not death I'm worried about. :) It's more like hospitalization for a few weeks and massive bills.

My trip was with family to Atlantic City/Borgata. Not just me involved. We had multiple family members (some older wanting to cancel). But, it's also big city territory and in a place where lots of people would be associating.

Even Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. are canceling conferences, I'm seeing. They are worried about the virus!

I do know some people who've been avoiding Chinatown too. While there is some logic to that, I also think if thee virus were spreading from there, it'd likely be in so many other surrounding areas too.

 

[mfb]

We'll need (age,condition,outcome) data for that. (age,outcome) and (condition,outcome) is better than nothing, but with the strong correlation between age and condition we can't conclude how important each one in isolation is.

 

[kyphysics]

Hotel rates are definitely $30-40 lower in my usual routes.

 

[kadiot]

China has listed their cases broken down by age, by previous medical condition and a bit more:
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

Out of all patients with data, 74% had no "comorbid tension" - but only 33% of the patients who died were in that group. Cardiovascular disease came with a factor ~5 higher death rate, diabetes with a factor ~4, hypertension with a factor ~3. Note that these are all highly correlated with age, so it's not a comparison of a patient with/without that condition at the same age!

Is there data outside China (aside from Singapre) to know the mortality rate for high risk patients? (Elderly/ immunocompromised etc?)

I don't know how or if data like that is tracked.

Example, normal flu mortality is 0.1% for general pop. For immunocompromised individuals its closer to 1%.

If that holds true for covid, a 1% mortality rate in gen pop is 10% for immunocompromised individuals.

 

[atyy]

Singapore is going to attempt taking swab samples for PCR at the airport from some people who have minor flu-like symptoms, and have results in 3-6 hours.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...ce-wong-iran-korea-italy-checkpoints-12494744

"Also starting on Wednesday, travellers entering Singapore who exhibit fever and other symptoms of respiratory illness but do not meet the clinical suspect case definition may be required to undergo a COVID-19 swab test at the checkpoint.

"We know that temperature standards alone are not sufficient," Mr Wong said.

They may continue their journey immediately after undergoing the test, but while awaiting results - which may take between three and six hours - they are advised to minimise contact with others, said MOH.

They will be contacted when the results are released and those with positive results will be taken to the hospital in a dedicated ambulance."

 

[chirhone]

Huh? You do realize, I hope, that alcohol would just evaporate off (after possibly killing the germs). It certainly won't cause rust. I would just wipe it down with hand sanitizer.

How many alcohol wipes of any surfaces before the viruses are killed?

Why do alcohol kill viruses? Arent there any viruses resistant to alcohol?

Lastly. A small bottle of alcohol is cheap. If i soak the item in a pan or cup of alcohol. It still won't rust?

 

[Vanadium 50]

We'll need (age,condition,outcome) data for that. (age,outcome) and (condition,outcome) is better than nothing, but with the strong correlation between age and condition we can't conclude how important each one in isolation is.

Agreed. Also, compounding this, when the extremely ill die, it is not always easy to separate dying with Coronavirus from dying from coronavirus.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Later today I'll receive the item and package from china (although travel from and to china in my country is restricted, but they can ship any package at will):

Is it safe to receive a letter or a package from China?

 

[kadiot]

Singapore is going to attempt taking swab samples for PCR at the airport from some people who have minor flu-like symptoms, and have results in 3-6 hours.

This is too technical for me. I've read some articles about Real Time PCR. Please let me know if I understand it correctly.

• rt-PCR stands for real-time polymerase chain reaction which uses tiny pieces of DNA (primers) to detect and amplify (think photocopy machine on steroids) some genetic material (viral, bacterial, human etc.) of interest.
• rt-PCR is incredibly sensitive, in some cases being able to pick up a single copy of target DNA in a sample.
• The extreme sensitivity of rt-PCR is a double edged sword. It is great for detecting organisms that are difficult to culture and are present in tiny amounts. However, this also makes it prone to contamination, resulting in false positives (aka fake news that somebody is infected).

Please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks.

 

[StatGuy2000]

By the way, it's not death I'm worried about. :) It's more like hospitalization for a few weeks and massive bills.

My trip was with family to Atlantic City/Borgata. Not just me involved. We had multiple family members (some older wanting to cancel). But, it's also big city territory and in a place where lots of people would be associating.

Even Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. are canceling conferences, I'm seeing. They are worried about the virus!

I do know some people who've been avoiding Chinatown too. While there is some logic to that, I also think if thee virus were spreading from there, it'd likely be in so many other surrounding areas too.

It is obviously up to you and your family to make the call on what decision you are most comfortable with in terms of travel.

That being said, in my personal opinion, you and your family are overreacting. I say this because there is still not widespread person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 within the US, and Atlantic City is certainly not a major source of transmission.

As for cancelling conferences, businesses tend to be overcautious when it comes to situations like this, to avoid potential liability (not to mention saving money on travel and conference costs). That being said, business conferences involve participants from all over the world, so limiting unnecessary travel can be potentially prudent. Personal travel like yours is a different matter (at least within the US -- obviously there are areas of the world which are riskier in terms of travel).

I personally live in an area of Toronto with a large Chinese and other Asian populations (although not an officially designated Chinatown), and thus far there in my city there have only a relatively small number of COVID-19 cases. So I'm not avoiding going out.

And I certainly have no intention on curbing any potential personal travel any time this year, at least for now.

[Note: At least one reason I'm not as concerned is because I live in Canada, which has universal health care that is free at point of service (with the exception of prescription medication, but I have a great health insurance package from my employer that covers that). So I'm not worried about big medical bills.]

 

[TeethWhitener]

How many alcohol wipes of any surfaces before the viruses are killed?

If you're really concerned, fill a spray bottle with 70% ethanol in water and spray the whole thing down.

Why do alcohol kill viruses?

It denatures their proteins

Arent there any viruses resistant to alcohol?

A few. A quick google search reveals that coronaviruses are not among them.

Lastly. A small bottle of alcohol is cheap. If i soak the item in a pan or cup of alcohol. It still won't rust?

It shouldn't. Alcohol isn't ionically conductive enough to sustain rust formation (especially over the timescale of a short-term dip).

 

[kadiot]

I just don't know what to say:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/anti-vaxxers-terrified-of-a-mandatory-coronavirus-vaccine-in-australia/ar-BB10xPeA

Sorry guys, while I believe in freedom and all that, the government has decided, in a really bad emergency situation, your irrational belief about vaccines does not allow you to put others lives in danger. And yes, generally most people in Australia don't have guns for self defense, but even if you had guns the government has enough resources so it will not make any difference.

Tanks
Bill

Sorry slighly off topic: Describe the sound of anti vaxxer heads exploding.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-law-m...ut3JGlS-iEje6zd3E26FQLWGG9d6FVNBks9l9b7JwIa6c

 

[bhobba]

How many alcohol wipes of any surfaces before the viruses are killed? Why do alcohol kill viruses? Arent there any viruses resistant to alcohol?Lastly. A small bottle of alcohol is cheap. If i soak the item in a pan or cup of alcohol. It still won't rust?

I just use a general spray cleaner that is marked antiseptic and, is claimed anyway, to virtually kill all viruses and bacteria. Alcohol works against most bacteria and viruses by, I seem to recall, but could be wrong, literally bursting them.

Alcohol itself doesn't cause rust but it has a very strong attraction to water and will actually pull water vapor out of the air.

But personally I would not worry - I clean metal surfaces all the time with my general purpose antiseptic spray and never had any trouble.

Thanks
Bill