COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[kyphysics]

[Note: At least one reason I'm not as concerned is because I live in Canada, which has universal health care that is free at point of service (with the exception of prescription medication, but I have a great health insurance package from my employer that covers that). So I'm not worried about big medical bills.]

Yeah, that's a big reason here.

Although, honestly, I doubt I'm really protecting myself much. I work on a college campus, in addition to having two side hustles that involve contact with all sorts of people.

I feel like the next 2-weeks will be crucial to gauge the spread of this thing. Assuming we can trust the Trump administration to be honest? If we get stories of kids getting hospitalized, I could see some areas shutting down Wuhan-style (if just for liability issues).

Let's hope we don't see an explosive rise in hospitalizations! So many Americans don't even have health insurance!

 

[kyphysics]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/cor...r-telemedicine-to-stop-hospital-crowding.html

Telemedicine could interestingly help in these situations.

Less need for people to go into see their doctor (in which an otherwise healthy person gets sick from someone with the virus). Video-ing your doctor from home and never having to leave sounds pretty nice.

 

[kyphysics]

View attachment 258040

Key word: "long"

If we had a more specific number, that'd be helpful too for general purposes.

 

[phinds]

Let's hope we don't see an explosive rise in hospitalizations! So many Americans don't even have health insurance!

Possibly even more important is that the health care system could be swamped if this turns into a pandemic. Even those of us with health care might not be able to get treatment if we need it.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Key word: "long"

If we had a more specific number, that'd be helpful too for general purposes.

Do you think, when the WHO made that infographic, they did not consider the time it takes for a package to arrive anywhere from China?
Or do you think them not trustworthy?

 

[chirhone]

I just use a general spray cleaner that is marked antiseptic and, is claimed anyway, to virtually kill all viruses and bacteria. Alcohol works against most bacteria and viruses by, I seem to recall, but could be wrong, literally bursting them.

Alcohol itself doesn't cause rust but it has a very strong attraction to water and will actually pull water vapor out of the air.

But personally I would not worry - I clean metal surfaces all the time with my general purpose antiseptic spray and never had any trouble.

Thanks
Bill

Does a general spray cover every microns of the surface? If even one micron is spared
The virus can live there. Do you always follow it by wiping the sprayed alcohol with tissue? My worry is it would destroy the paint.

This is part of containment efforts.

 

[kyphysics]

Possibly even more important is that the health care system could be swamped if this turns into a pandemic. Even those of us with health care might not be able to get treatment if we need it.

Not to get political too, but if the Trump administration cared about people's health, perhaps some time of temporary (10 days?) locking down of locales across the U.S. might be helpful? Yeah, it'd slow economic activity, but what if it saved lives and prevented such overcrowding health facility scenarios you mention.

What's that saying...an ounce of prevention is worth a lb. a cure or something?

Do you think, when the WHO made that infographic, they did not consider the time it takes for a package to arrive anywhere from China?
Or do you think them not trustworthy?

No, I meant for general purposes (as I stated in that post). As in, I do respect WHO's comments regarding packages. But, I was curious how long the c-virus lingers in general on various surfaces (outside of hosts) - non-package related and just general purpose spreading.

Sorry if my wording implied something different!

 

[anorlunda]

I have a question. I can't find it with a google search. What happens after a few months?

• Of course a vaccine would be nice, I accept that may or may not happen.
• Does the danger subside by itself without a vaccine?
• Or does everyone in the world get exposed, and 60% of us catch it? If so, then avoiding crowds has no point if we all get exposed eventually.

I'm thinking SARS went away on its own, but the common cold and some variant of flu stays with us forever.

 

[dRic2]

https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.00507

Some statistical fitting of the available data. A Very easy-to-read and very short article.

According to the above article and the current available data Italy should reach a plateau around 5500 infected people in a month (if I interpreted the graph correctly)... Seems strange giving the fact that we have already 2230 cases in about 10 days.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Not to get political too

Then why are you the one who keeps bringing Trump into this? Twice in less than two hours.

The President of the United States is head of the executive branch. That means he gets to execute laws, not create laws. The most relevant law is the Public Health Services Act, which allows the HHS secretary to declare an emergency, which was done on January 31st. (By Secretary Azar, not President Trump) It does not give anyone the authority to "lock down" the country, and it is not likely to do any good in slowing the spread of the disease anyway,

It would, however, save 100 lives a day from traffic accidents.

 

[mfb]

Do you think, when the WHO made that infographic, they did not consider the time it takes for a package to arrive anywhere from China?
Or do you think them not trustworthy?

I think the WHO hopes that this virus is similar enough to previous coronaviruses. They actually say that themselves in the image: It's based on other viruses.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...n-surfaces#How-long-do-coronaviruses-persist?

Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. At a temperature of 30°C [86°F] or more, the duration of persistence is shorter.

Sure, 9 days is the extreme outlier, but it's certainly longer than some shipping times.

----

CDC stopped listing cases by state, for whatever reason. Instead of a number you just get "yes" or "no" now in the map and table.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I have a question. I can't find it with a google search. What happens after a few months?

• Of course a vaccine would be nice, I accept that may or may not happen.
• Does the danger subside by itself without a vaccine?
• Or does everyone in the world get exposed, and 60% of us catch it? If so, then avoiding crowds has no point if we all get exposed eventually.

I'm thinking SARS went away on its own, but the common cold and some variant of flu stays with us forever.

Regarding a vaccine: Despite what some people in the thread and some political figures have been saying, experts say that a vaccine for the Coronavirus is at least a year away from being available to the general public (https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-year-away-public-availability-1489214). Fastest time from outbreak to approval of a vaccine is ~ 7 months (for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in South America, https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/how-fast-biotech-vaccine-coronavirus/). While approval for a vaccine (which involves performing clinical trials to make sure that the vaccine is safe and effective) could come within a similar time frame, this does not account for the time needed to mass produce the doses required for use by the general public. Before then, access to the vaccine would likely be limited to those at the highest risk of contracting the virus (e.g. hospital workers).

SARS went away on its own because it was able to successfully be contained. Containment of SARS was easier because the symptoms were much more severe, so it was easier to detect and isolate those with the disease. COVID-19, however, is associated with much milder symptoms and it appears that asymptomatic individuals can transmit the disease (e.g. see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). These features of the disease has made it much more difficult to detect and isolate infected individuals, allowing the disease to spread undetected in some communities (like in the current outbreak in Washington State). It is looking increasingly likely that containment methods will not be able to completely eliminate the disease.

However, while containment methods may not be able to eliminate the disease, this is not to say we should give up on efforts to contain the disease. As many in the thread have said, a major danger of the outbreak is that it could overwhelm healthcare systems when a large number of people show up to hospitals, sick and in need of treatment. Taking measures to slow the spread of the disease and limit its spread can make a big difference. For example, there would be a big difference between 60% of the population getting the disease in one month versus 40% of the population getting the disease spread over the course of 3-4 months. In the first scenario, hospitals could run out of capacity to treat patients, leading to much higher death rates.

As for the long-term outlook for the disease, STAT News published a very nice piece discussing the issue: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

 

[kyphysics]

Dumb question:

So, let's say a surface has a virus. Does that virus move around on that surface and how much (if so)? I know bacteria move all over the place and need a food source.

Can a virus also move all over and do they need something to "fuel" them?

 

[kyphysics]

Regarding a vaccine: Despite what some people in the thread and some political figures have been saying, experts say that a vaccine for the Coronavirus is at least a year away from being available to the general public (https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-year-away-public-availability-1489214). Fastest time from outbreak to approval of a vaccine is ~ 7 months (for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in South America, https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/how-fast-biotech-vaccine-coronavirus/). While approval for a vaccine (which involves performing clinical trials to make sure that the vaccine is safe and effective) could come within a similar time frame, this does not account for the time needed to mass produce the doses required for use by the general public. Before then, access to the vaccine would likely be limited to those at the highest risk of contracting the virus (e.g. hospital workers).

SARS went away on its own because it was able to successfully be contained. Containment of SARS was easier because the symptoms were much more severe, so it was easier to detect and isolate those with the disease. COVID-19, however, is associated with much milder symptoms and it appears that asymptomatic individuals can transmit the disease (e.g. see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). These features of the disease has made it much more difficult to detect and isolate infected individuals, allowing the disease to spread undetected in some communities (like in the current outbreak in Washington State). It is looking increasingly likely that containment methods will not be able to completely eliminate the disease.

However, while containment methods may not be able to eliminate the disease, this is not to say we should give up on efforts to contain the disease. As many in the thread have said, a major danger of the outbreak is that it could overwhelm healthcare systems when a large number of people show up to hospitals, sick and in need of treatment. Taking measures to slow the spread of the disease and limit its spread can make a big difference. For example, there would be a big difference between 60% of the population getting the disease in one month versus 40% of the population getting the disease spread over the course of 3-4 months. In the first scenario, hospitals could run out of capacity to treat patients, leading to much higher death rates.

As for the long-term outlook for the disease, STAT News published a very nice piece discussing the issue: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

This is a fantastic post! Thanks for the work.

 

[chirhone]

Is soap enough to kill the virus? In case you don't have enough alcohol?

For example. The china items from Lazada arrive in just 4 to 5 days to thousands of users (even if Coronavirus survives 9 days).

Let's say the receiver would wear PPE to receive the package and cut the shipping packaging with scissors straight to waste disposal unit. Can you use soap to clean the scissors or does it have to be full alcohol to clear the scissors?

 

[TeethWhitener]

Does a general spray cover every microns of the surface? If even one micron is spared
The virus can live there. Do you always follow it by wiping the sprayed alcohol with tissue? My worry is it would destroy the paint.

This is part of containment efforts.

Spraying down surfaces with 70% ethanol is standard sterilization practice in a bio lab.

Also, if spraying a part like that with ethanol takes off the paint or rusts the part, you’ve paid too much for the part. This is true regardless of what you paid for it.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Regarding a vaccine: Despite what some people in the thread and some political figures have been saying, experts say that a vaccine for the Coronavirus is at least a year away from being available to the general public (https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-year-away-public-availability-1489214). Fastest time from outbreak to approval of a vaccine is ~ 7 months (for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in South America, https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/how-fast-biotech-vaccine-coronavirus/). While approval for a vaccine (which involves performing clinical trials to make sure that the vaccine is safe and effective) could come within a similar time frame, this does not account for the time needed to mass produce the doses required for use by the general public. Before then, access to the vaccine would likely be limited to those at the highest risk of contracting the virus (e.g. hospital workers).

SARS went away on its own because it was able to successfully be contained. Containment of SARS was easier because the symptoms were much more severe, so it was easier to detect and isolate those with the disease. COVID-19, however, is associated with much milder symptoms and it appears that asymptomatic individuals can transmit the disease (e.g. see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468 and https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). These features of the disease has made it much more difficult to detect and isolate infected individuals, allowing the disease to spread undetected in some communities (like in the current outbreak in Washington State). It is looking increasingly likely that containment methods will not be able to completely eliminate the disease.

However, while containment methods may not be able to eliminate the disease, this is not to say we should give up on efforts to contain the disease. As many in the thread have said, a major danger of the outbreak is that it could overwhelm healthcare systems when a large number of people show up to hospitals, sick and in need of treatment. Taking measures to slow the spread of the disease and limit its spread can make a big difference. For example, there would be a big difference between 60% of the population getting the disease in one month versus 40% of the population getting the disease spread over the course of 3-4 months. In the first scenario, hospitals could run out of capacity to treat patients, leading to much higher death rates.

As for the long-term outlook for the disease, STAT News published a very nice piece discussing the issue: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

An excellent post - thanks for updating us!

I would like to add that as someone who had worked at a major vaccine manufacturer, I can indeed attest to the time frame required for a vaccine to become available (at least a year away, even if taking into account the approval period for the new vaccine).

It is also worth noting that there has also been research into whether existing approved antiviral medication could be effective in treating and controlling COVID-19. There are clinical trials in progress for a number of such antivirals, including favipiravir, ribavirin, remdesivir, and galidesivir.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#Management

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00016-0

 

[hmmm27]

OT thread-related question :
Why is everybody saying "70%" isopropanol ? 99% is readily available where I am, for pennies more. Useful stuff (either dilution) : antiseptic, aftershave, parts cleaner, general and specific solvent.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

OT thread-related question :
Why is everybody saying "70%" isopropanol ? 99% is readily available where I am, for pennies more. Useful stuff (either dilution) : antiseptic, aftershave, parts cleaner, general and specific solvent.

At concentrations higher than 70%, alcohol evaporates too quickly to efficiently disinfect a surface. The presence of water in the solution also aids in disrupting the cell membranes of germs:
https://blog.gotopac.com/2017/05/15...than-99-isopropanol-and-what-is-ipa-used-for/
https://www.cdc.gov/infectioncontrol/guidelines/disinfection/disinfection-methods/chemical.html

 

[kyphysics]

I would like to add that as someone who had worked at a major vaccine manufacturer, I can indeed attest to the time frame required for a vaccine to become available (at least a year away, even if taking into account the approval period for the new vaccine).

Does a "capitalistic incentive" speed that up at all?

I.e., If it were announced that a large cash prize would be offered for those able to come up with a vaccine by x amount of time, can we speed things up.

 

[TeethWhitener]

Does a "capitalistic incentive" speed that up at all?

I.e., If it were announced that a large cash prize would be offered for those able to come up with a vaccine by x amount of time, can we speed things up.

Once again, it’s not formulating the vaccine that’s the bottleneck at this point. It’s testing the vaccine, getting it approved, and then mass manufacturing it.

 

[kith]

Ps.: is there some 'admitted to hospital, by age group' type statistics around somewhere?

Yes, see this tweet by Scott Gottlieb. Compared to the flu in the US, COVID-19 in China has lead to more hospitalizations for younger people.

 

[hmmm27]

Is soap enough to kill the virus? In case you don't have enough alcohol?

Boiling water will "deactivate"(ie: kill) viruses.

 

[kyphysics]

Any numbers on people who get the virus, but don't show anything more than cold symptoms and never get the worst of it. Like a % on # of infected who just say they hda a common cold experience?

 

[chirhone]

Can sunlight kill COVID-19? I put my just delivered china item under sunlight.

Can weather or humidity affect COVID-19 transmission? In the Philippines, we had our last positive cases last January with 3 victims direct from China. We didn't have any local transmission, and over 600 PUI (Persons Under Investigations) tested negative. I don't know if the test kits used are of inferior quality. Is it possible the weather can affect transmission? Singapore is also hot but it has local transmission, how about the humidity? Here is some data of our humidity and temperature in the capital.

 

[BillTre]

UV light should inactivate viruses on exposed surfaces. This is usually done with germicidal UV lights. These are not the black lights that non-lab people will usually come in contact with.

Sunlight has some UV components and therefore should have some effect. Prolonged exposure on all sides would work best. Hidden surfaces would provide problems which is why complete liquid exposure is probably a better and easier solution.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Any numbers on people who get the virus, but don't show anything more than cold symptoms and never get the worst of it. Like a % on # of infected who just say they hda a common cold experience?

Based on over 70,000 cases reported in China, about 80% of those diagnosed with COVID-19 experience mild symptoms, versus 15% with severe symptoms (requiring hospitalization) and 5% with critical symptoms (life-threatening). Morality in the cohort studied was 2.3%.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

 

[mfb]

Is soap enough to kill the virus?

The main purpose of soap is not to kill things, soap is mainly used to wash off things.

 

[kadiot]

Can sunlight kill COVID-19? I put my just delivered china item under sunlight.View attachment 258079

Can weather or humidity affect COVID-19 transmission? In the Philippines, we had our last positive cases last January with 3 victims direct from China. We didn't have any local transmission, and over 600 PUI (Persons Under Investigations) tested negative. I don't know if the test kits used are of inferior quality. Is it possible the weather can affect transmission? Singapore is also hot but it has local transmission, how about the humidity? Here is some data of our humidity and temperature in the capital.

View attachment 258080

Hi. I'm a Filipino based in Singapore. I wonder about it too.

Singapore is winning the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic not because of its warm weather, but due to its early and effective containment and mitigation efforts. The island republic's geographic size, socioeconomic and political circumstances makes it easier to overcome the serious public health emergency that afflicted this small but rich country.

Compare this to much larger but less endowed ASEAN nations like the Philippines and Indonesia. It seems both countries are embroiled in faulty reporting on matters pertaining to state of public health and disaster management policy. Evidently it's best to organize, plan and prepare early and act vigorously given the inevitable impact of the corona virus. It's but a matter of time before this fast spreading virus take its deadly toll worldwide.

The announcement of the Department of Health ( DOH ) of having only 3 positive cases of infection and no local transmissions in the Philippines is a statistical impossibility. Perhaps DOH and the World Health Organization are adopting this approach to avoid global panic that will exacerbate the socioeconomic and political repercussions of the crisis? However our national circumstances as host to hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals, delayed travel restrictions and lax enforcement of quarantine protocol, and weak public healthcare infrastructure makes such announcements unconcionable. It will only bring false hope and add complacency in what should be a vigorous collective effort to contain the virus and protect public health.

Serious repercussions is to expected from this unmitigated spread of the virus is but a matter of time. Expect the impact and contagion in 2 to 4 weeks, or by the end of March 2020. Our passive and forgiving culture and lack of public disciple will exacerbate the situation. The contamination is a clear and present danger to all. In retrospect, this serves as our best argument to organize and prepare our last line of defense on a community level.

Collaborate now with your Local Government Units ( LGU ), hospitals and health centers, barangay councils, DRRMs and volunteers to protect public health and safety of our communities. We can fight the deadly virus by sharing science-based information and by promoting effective disaster management practices. Information gathering and dissemination, monitoring and identification, quarantine and provision of palliative care to PUIs in are key measures to protect ourselves, our family and community. Our last line of organized defense against the COVID-19 global pandemic is right in our neighborhood.

 

[atyy]

Is soap enough to kill the virus? In case you don't have enough alcohol?

The main purpose of soap is not to kill things, soap is mainly used to wash off things.

That's true, but soap can also inactivate viruses, if left in contact with the virus for long enough. That is why many recommendations for hand washing say something like scrub your hands for at least 20 or 30 seconds.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/41/7/e67/310340 (data on soap for 5 minutes for related viruses)
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext (data on alcohol etc for related viruses)

The thinking seems to be that the Coronavirus has a lipid envelope, which can be disrupted by detergents like soap.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...cov-infection-prevention-and-control-guidance
"As coronaviruses have a lipid envelope, a wide range of disinfectants are effective."
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/clarissajanlim/coronavirus-questions-masks-hand-sanitizers
"Sorrell said washing your hands for at least 20 seconds, which is also a recommendation for preventing common colds and influenza, is crucial.
"The virus is sensitive to detergents, meaning soap will inactivate the virus," she said."

 

[kadiot]

China was able to stall the spread by basically forcing the country to shut down and using AI and Big Data. Not sure the USA has the support/infrastructure to do that.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-suppressed-covid-19-with-ai-and-big-data/

 

[StatGuy2000]

Here is an interesting pre-print (still to be peer reviewed) which discusses mathematical models in regards to timing "one-shot" (i.e. short-term) interventions to control epidemics in general, with special application to the current COVID-19 outbreak.

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/j...ne_off_interventions_for_epidemic_control.pdf

 

[StatGuy2000]

Does a "capitalistic incentive" speed that up at all?

I.e., If it were announced that a large cash prize would be offered for those able to come up with a vaccine by x amount of time, can we speed things up.

@TeethWhitener has already explained the bottleneck to COVID-19 vaccine development in post #511.

I'll only add that the pharma companies who develop and manufacture vaccines (Sanofi, GSK, Merck, Pfizer, and Novavax being among the biggest) already have a "capitalist incentive" to develop the COVID-19 vaccine.

 

[bhobba]

Does a general spray cover every microns of the surface?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Once again, it’s not formulating the vaccine that’s the bottleneck at this point. It’s testing the vaccine, getting it approved, and then mass manufacturing it.

Exactly. We have the vaccine - a number actually. Here in Aus the vaccine UQ has come up is at the CSIRO being tested:
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Covid19-expert-commentary
'The timeline of developing a vaccine in merely months is very fast. That’s because we started this race with most of the tools partly developed. We are far ahead of where we were with SARS but the science complexity of what we are doing equates to the complexity of trying to put someone on Mars. It is very complex, and we really are pushing our science to the limits of global knowledge. If all goes well, and everything goes right, CSIRO could be testing vaccines in months.'

We are developing new methods as we go. But if all goes well the experts that claim at least a year (and I have seen some that claim 5 months - Israel claims 90 days) may be somewhat pessimistic. The other issue is exactly what level of safety in the vaccine are we willing to accept. I think we have, at least in Australia, to trust the experts because the government has the power to forcibly vaccinate entire populations presumably to create heard immunity. We re entering unknown territory here. IMHO these people are all unsung heroes.

Thanks
Bill