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bhobba said:Exactly. We have the vaccine - a number actually. Here in Aus the vaccine UQ has come up is at the CSIRO being tested:
https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2020/Covid19-expert-commentary
'The timeline of developing a vaccine in merely months is very fast. That’s because we started this race with most of the tools partly developed. We are far ahead of where we were with SARS but the science complexity of what we are doing equates to the complexity of trying to put someone on Mars. It is very complex, and we really are pushing our science to the limits of global knowledge. If all goes well, and everything goes right, CSIRO could be testing vaccines in months.'
We are developing new methods as we go. But if all goes well the experts that claim at least a year (and I have seen some that claim 5 months - Israel claims 90 days) may be somewhat pessimistic. The other issue is exactly what level of safety in the vaccine are we willing to accept. I think we have, at least in Australia, to trust the experts because the government has the power to forcibly vaccinate entire populations presumably to create heard immunity. We re entering unknown territory here.
Thanks
Bill
While the UQ team is still months away from testing, the US company Moderna will begin Phase I Clinical Trials later this month (estimated study start date 3/19) to begin tests on its candidate vaccine:
https://investors.modernatx.com/new...a-vaccine-against-novel-coronavirus-mrna-1273
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
This is a phase I, open-label, dose ranging clinical trial in males and non-pregnant females, 18 to 55 years of age, inclusive, who are in good health and meet all eligibility criteria. This clinical trial is designed to assess the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 manufactured by ModernaTX, Inc. mRNA-1273 is a novel lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes for a full-length, prefusion stabilized spike (S) protein of 2019-novel Coronavirus (nCoV). Enrollment will occur at one domestic site. Forty-five subjects will be enrolled into one of three cohorts (25 microgram [mcg], 100 mcg, 250 mcg). Subjects will receive an intramuscular (IM) injection (0.5 milliliter [mL]) of mRNA-1273 on Days 1 and 29 in the deltoid muscle and will be followed through 12 months post second vaccination (Day 394). Follow-up visits will occur 1, 2 and 4 weeks post each vaccination (Days 8, 15, 29, 36, 43, and 57), as well as 3, 6 and 12 months post second vaccination (Days 119, 209 and 394). The primary objective is to evaluate the safety and reactogenicity of a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273, given 28 days apart, across 3 dosages in healthy adults. The secondary objective is to evaluate the immunogenicity as measured by IgG ELISA to the 2019-nCoV S protein following a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273 at Day 57.
Still, it will take time to complete all three phases of the clinical trial to determine whether the vaccine is safe and effective at preventing disease. From the trial description, it sounds like around the end of May is when the company will get data that may determine whether they proceed with larger, Phase II clinical trials.