COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[DennisN]

Now since my immune system has never seen this new coronovirus before and I now have a superhighway through it the chances of me fighting it off is severely reduced.

I'm very sorry to hear that. Take care and stay safe!

 

[chirhone]

Hospitals worldwide have now more shortages of blood because not many people donate blood.

For those needing surgery. If they have many friends or relatives with say type O plus. Can the people go to the hospitals at the time of the surgery and have their blood drawn and can this be used immediately on the patients? Or does it needs hours of centrifuge because it can be used?

 

[kyphysics]

QUICK QUESTION:

Does asymptomatic mean you are not exhibiting the symptoms and NEVER will (as in you do carry the virus, but for whatever reason, your body is handling it fine and you won't ever have any issues manifest physically) OR that they JUST HAVEN'T SHOWN UP YET?

thanks!

 

[phinds]

QUICK QUESTION:

Does asymptomatic mean you are not exhibiting the symptoms and NEVER will (as in you do carry the virus, but for whatever reason, your body is handling it fine and you won't ever have any issues manifest physically) OR that they JUST HAVEN'T SHOWN UP YET?

Both, I think.

 

[chirhone]

In the lockdown. The military, police, buildings are using hundreds of IR thermometers where they point it at the forehead and it's in shortage.

I understand an IR thermometer doesn't measure the core temperature but just the surface temperature of the skin. But at least it can segregate those with major rise in temperature.

Because of the shortages. I'm thinking whether to lend my thermal imager to a building or the military. The box in the middle (in the picture below where i tried it on a friend) can search for area with highest temperature. Is this as effective as the IR thermometer (considering both of their limitations in not able to get the core temperature which can work better by inserting the thermometer at the anuses. This is not advisable at the checkpoints because people can transfer feces).

 

[anorlunda]

It’s not simply the ability to detect the cases and explain why they happened that makes Singapore such a role model in this epidemic; nucleic acid testing kits were rapidly developed and deployed to ports of entry. Within three hours, while individuals are quarantined on-site, officials can confirm whether or not they are infected with the virus before allowing them to enter.

Three hours suggests some kind of on-site testing without shipments to a central laboratory.

What is nucleic acid testing?
Are there other types of testing with wide spread use?

 

[BillTre]

QUICK QUESTION:

Does asymptomatic mean you are not exhibiting the symptoms and NEVER will (as in you do carry the virus, but for whatever reason, your body is handling it fine and you won't ever have any issues manifest physically) OR that they JUST HAVEN'T SHOWN UP YET?

thanks!

It means that at some point in time a determination was they you (or whoever) showed no symptoms (by what ever method of discerning symptoms was used).

It does not mean you will not get symptoms later. It is only a reading at one point in time.
You could be very infected but show no symptoms for some reason.
You could also be infected and not show it on a test (a test result could be considered a symptom). This would be a false negative for the test and could be due to a variety of causes.
Another possibility would be that you already have an immunity, or for some reason the virus does not bother you.
The biggest problem is a carrier (infected person) who has no symptoms but is spewing out infectious virus particles, unknown to those around them.

In any case, you could still get infected later (unless you are already immune), and show symptoms then.

 

[chemisttree]

(considering both of their limitations in not able to get the core temperature which can work better by inserting the thermometer at the anuses. This is not advisable at the checkpoints because people can transfer feces).

Are you sure that’s the reason?

 

[TeethWhitener]

Hoarders at their worst:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

An update:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...oarding-hand-sanitizer-urged-stop/5054155002/
I’m not a lawyer, so I’m not sure what kind of legal recourse the AG has.

 

[morrobay]

One of the CDC people said on TV that the virus can last several days on hard, polished surfaces, particularly metal.

Yes but surviving on some surface and then transferring in large enough numbers to cause an infection are two different things. From an infected person to the surface then to someone touching the surface then touching face. If there were surfaces infections it would seem infections would be orders of magnitude greater.
I also read there have been no documented cases.

 

[kadiot]

In Italy, given the crisis situation with more than 1,500 dead, the decision on who dies and who lives depends on the AGE, HEALTH condition and potential for RECOVERY of the patients...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ill-left-die-country-overwhelmed-coronavirus/

 

[kyphysics]

You could be very infected but show no symptoms for some reason.

Just to be sure I understand, this is not BAD for the patient him/herself, right? I agree with your point later that it would be horrible for everyone else, who the asymptomatic person is spreading the virus to. But, for the person without symptoms, they don't just suddenly die, right?

In other words, those who die, are those who have it manifested physically in things like trouble breathing, fever, fatigue, etc. There aren't people who don't show symptoms and just die of this thing never knowing they were in trouble, right?

In any case, you could still get infected later (unless you are already immune), and show symptoms then.

Do you mean reinfected later and then show symptoms the second time around? I thought once you get infected and fight the virus off that your body is now immune to it and it won't harm you anymore?

 

[BillTre]

You could be very infected but show no symptoms for some reason.

Just to be sure I understand, this is not BAD for the patient him/herself, right?

If one is infected and does not show symptoms does not mean they would not show symptoms later. In any case, you could still get infected later (unless you are already immune), and show symptoms then.

Do you mean reinfected later and then show symptoms the second time around?

No. A person already infected should have immunity or they would not have gotten uninfected.
But, an uninfected person without symptoms could get infected and either have or not have symptoms.

 

[mfb]

Just to be sure I understand, this is not BAD for the patient him/herself, right?

Right, it is just bad for others who might get infected from that person. At least that person doesn't cough/sneeze the virus around (by definition - that would be a symptom).

I found an interesting talk. It's made for people working at a hospital, the parts about specific diagnosis tools and medication are very technical (too technical for me at least), but apart from that it gives a good overview.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

This figure shows how S230, an antibody known to have neutralizing activity against the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, is predicted to interact with an initial model of a surface protein on the novel coronavirus. This computational estimate can quickly provide researchers with structural insights without waiting for time-consuming X-ray crystallography images of the actual protein.
Lawrence Livermore researchers release 3D protein structure predictions for the novel coronavirus

[ . . . ]

As global concern continues to rise about a novel Coronavirus spreading from China, a team of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) researchers has developed a preliminary set of predictive 3D protein structures of the virus to aid research efforts to combat the disease.

The team’s predicted 3D models, developed over the past week using a previously peer-reviewed modeling process, are based on the genomic sequence of the novel Coronavirus and the known structure of a protein found in the virus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), also a Coronavirus that closely resembles the new virus.

“A major part of the value of these new structural models is that they present the predicted protein in complex with SARS-neutralizing antibodies,” said Adam Zemla, an LLNL structural biologist and mathematician. “This can be thought of as the first step for the global research community to identify and model how therapeutic antibodies can be designed to fight the novel coronavirus.”

Lab researchers are designing a diversity of protein models because the new Coronavirus protein structure is not yet known, according to Daniel Faissol, a data scientist in the Lab’s Computational Engineering Division.

The gold standard for obtaining protein structures for viruses is X-ray crystallography, but the entire process to learn the 3D structure of proteins can require weeks to months.

“We are making our initial protein structures available to the broader research community in the hopes of accelerating the development of disease countermeasures globally, because we hope to see a rapid response and because the situation is evolving so quickly. As we obtain more information about the virus, our intention is to update our models and provide follow-up data releases,” Faissol said.

To date, the Lab researchers have developed seven 3D, predictive models of Coronavirus proteins where therapeutics could be targeted using three different antibodies.

The models were developed at LLNL using published methods on structure modeling and structure variability analysis systems and structure alignment software. The most current 3D models can be obtained by contacting the LLNL Biosecurity Center.

The team’s work in support of the novel Coronavirus research is part of an ongoing research effort with the Department of Defense and others working toward accelerating the design of vaccines and therapeutics for various diseases.

As a next step, the team plans to use the preliminary protein models as part of a novel approach for accelerating countermeasure design, using a new LLNL-developed system that combines machine learning, biological experiments and simulation on high performance computing. In this process, the starting point is the estimated protein structures that they recently released.

Ultimately, the system may help identify new and/or improved candidates for countermeasure development. “Being able to estimate these structures rapidly is a key enabler for rapid computational design,” said Thomas Desautels, an LLNL data scientist.

The Coronavirus work leverages science and technology capabilities developed under LLNL’s internal Laboratory Directed Research and Development program, which supports cutting-edge, high-risk research.

In addition to Zemla, Desautels and Faissol, other team members are Edmond Lau, a computational chemist, and Magdalena Franco, a biomedical researcher.
https://www.llnl.gov/news/lawrence-...otein-structure-predictions-novel-coronavirus

I live close to Livermore, California and my husband worked there. Now he is retired.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Three hours suggests some kind of on-site testing without shipments to a central laboratory.

What is nucleic acid testing?
Are there other types of testing with wide spread use?

Nucleic acid testing refers to a technique called RT-qPCR (reverse-transcription + quantitative polymerase chain reaction) that detects specific RNA sequences that occur in the Coronavirus genome. I have performed RT-qPCR for research purposes, and three hours would be enough time to process a specimen from a patient, setup the RT-qPCR reaction, run the reaction in the qPCR machine, and get the results. A three hour turnaround would require having a laboratory and qPCR machine at the testing site.

Most tests for the virus (including those used by the WHO and CDC) are based on RT-qPCR. I have heard that an antibody test is available for the virus (https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-solve-some-medical-mysteries?t=1583003302766), which detects whether a person has antibodies against the virus in their bloodstream. However, this would not be a useful clinical diagnostic test because it could not distinguish between people with an active infection and people who have recovered from the virus.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I have trouble finding out how long one needs to self-quarantine if they have the virus. For a patient known to have it, they would stay until the test came up negative on consecutive days. I found one source:
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30102-X/pdf

STAT news has a piece covering an unpublished pre-print study that studies how infections people are over the course of recovery:

the study suggests that while people with mild infections can still test positive by throat swabs for days and even weeks after their illness, those who are only mildly sick are likely not still infectious by about 10 days after they start to experience symptoms. [...]

The researchers monitored the viral shedding of nine people infected with the virus. In addition to tests looking for fragments of the virus’s RNA, they also tried to grow viruses from sputum, blood, urine, and stool samples taken from the patients. The latter type of testing — trying to grow viruses — is critical in the quest to determine how people infect one another and how long an infected person poses a risk to others.

Importantly, the scientists could not grow viruses from throat swabs or sputum specimens after day 8 of illness from people who had mild infections.

“Based on the present findings, early discharge with ensuing home isolation could be chosen for patients who are beyond day 10 of symptoms with less than 100,000 viral RNA copies per ml of sputum,” the authors said, suggesting that at that point “there is little residual risk of infectivity, based on cell culture.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09...-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/

The results still need to be reviewed and replicated, but these could help provide guidelines for the amount of time needed for quarantine of patients.

 

[bhobba]

and estimated 8% of global population has some autoimmune disease

I thought I was told about 10% so checked it - you are right its about 8%. And I didn't know about the female thing - probably because I am repeating what doctors told me and its of not much value knowing females get it a lot more frequently when you are a male - in fact it may make you feel worse, but I have had it for so long now - since I was 42 and am 65 this year - it doesn't really phase me anymore.

Now diabetes ... The open question for your doctor of course is whether the biologic dosing should come down during this.

I will check with the doctor about that. I have diabetes as well. Interestingly it too is quite possibly an autoimmune disease as has been discovered in recent years:
https://www.healthline.com/health/t...s-an-autoimmune-diease#what-the-research-says.

Now 10% of people have diabetes - so maybe the 8% figure may need revising. It is one of a few not usually treated by a Rheumatologist, but by an endocrinologist - others treated by other specialists are Chrohn's Disease (again controversy if it is an autoimmune disease or not) and MS. Psoriasis is a team effort between a Rheumatologist and Dermatologist, the split depending on which predominates - the arthritic component or the skin component. In my case the Arthritic component predominates and I only rarely see a dermatologist. The percentage of people that get psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis is interesting:
http://blog.arthritis.org/psoriatic-arthritis/psoriatic-arthritis-psoriasis/

That's right it's between 18% and 42% - exact science at its best .

Also at 2.2% of the population it says Psoriasis is the most prevalent auto immune disease. Even though the above is from recent studies they obviously did not take into account Diabetes (probably because its only suspected to be one) - which is also a recent finding. We sometimes think physics moves pretty fast in its knowledge but it may be a Tortoise compared to medical science.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Nucleic acid testing refers to a technique called RT-qPCR (reverse-transcription + quantitative polymerase chain reaction) that detects specific RNA sequences that occur in the Coronavirus genome. I have performed RT-qPCR for research purposes, and three hours would be enough time to process a specimen from a patient, setup the RT-qPCR reaction, run the reaction in the qPCR machine, and get the results. A three hour turnaround would require having a laboratory and qPCR machine at the testing site.

In most countries it would require a machine at the testing site, but Singapore is tiny (about 25 km in length), so it may be that the PCR machine is not what Singaporeans would consider on site. This news article seems to indicate the PCR machine is not where the samples are collected: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid19-new-test-kits-swab-three-hours-12505658.

 

[Tom.G]

Right now I'm eyeing the leaves that blew over into my lawn from next door...

Take a tip from either:

• Before toilet paper was widely available
  or
• Before you were old enough to use it.

It's called a diaper.

A neighbor, when her grandkids panicked about the no-toilet-paper possibility responded:
"Take some newspaper and crumple it up real good until it gets soft. Then use it. As an extra, you get the comics printed on your behind." The kids loved it!

 

[chemisttree]

Too late to install a https://www.lowes.com/pd/Brondell-White-Bidet-Attachment/1000331497?cm_mmc=shp-_-c-_-prd-_-kab-_-google-_-lia-_--_-toiletseats-_-1000331497-_-0&store_code=2480&placeholder=null&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIxcqFmL-e6AIVSNyGCh19TgW0EAQYAiABEgIph_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds A lot cheaper than scalped t-paper.

 

[Tom.G]

Too late to install a bidet?

At the risk of being risque...

A neighbor installed one recently. After installing it, a test was in order. She aimed it up, stood beside it, and flushed. To her surprise, it shot clear across the room. When the laughter died down I asked, "Well, what did you expect if you got it up and turned it on?"

 

[Borg]

My wife has friends who work for the government that are forwarding her an email that has all of the hallmarks of the typical "forward this to everyone you know" spam. I won't repeat that BS here but that has my wife terrified even more than she was before. I keep sending friends to this thread so that they can get some real information but so far, not one has told me that they even visited it. The only thing that comes is more stupid rumors... End of rant.

 

[bhobba]

but so far, not one has told me that they even visited it.

Welcome to the club. I am watching a talk show at the moment. One panelist, Bill Bowtell, Professor Kirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, was asking simple questions of politicians such as where are the testing kits. No answer. And its not the only issue. Its a real worry.

Thanks
Bill

 

[hagopbul]

how much time is needed to research then deploy a new Covid-19 testing methods based on your expertise ,starting from the paper work before you even start the research ending with mass production and deployment

best
hagop

 

[anorlunda]

how much time is needed to research then deploy a new Covid-19 testing methods based on your expertise ,starting from the paper work before you even start the research ending with mass production and deployment

A year or so after this crisis is over would be a good time to rationally rethink policies. Safety and quality considerations protect the public from many hazards. But in the case of a fast spreading virus, speed in deployment might outweigh the normal safety and quality rules.

Abandoning rules should never be done in haste, but rules should also have predetermined exceptions to cover emergency needs. I'll wager that 3 years from now, the rules will have been modified.

 

[bhobba]

how much time is needed to research then deploy a new Covid-19 testing methods based on your expertise ,starting from the paper work before you even start the research ending with mass production and deployment

I am no expert on the logistics of this, but here is the state of play in Aus:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tralia-can-deliver-results-within-three-hours

The issue Bill Bowtell was concerned about is the politicians should have known the state of play, and probably more importantly started it a lot sooner. The point he was making was they do not seem to understand exponential growth and you must take measures as early as possible or the growth outstrips your ability to handle it.

I am watching an interview with someone in the epicenter of the Italian outbreak and they say the same thing - if you do not act to the point the public says its a way over the top reaction then its not fast enough.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Mondayman]

They all bought mountains of toilet paper. I bought a bidet .

Seriously though, I see no point in me or other healthy people leaving their house to go get tested and possibly get infected by other people.

 

[bhobba]

Seriously though, I see no point in me or other healthy people leaving their house to go get tested and possibly get infected by other people.

You are unlikely to get infected in your car by yourself. You go to drive through testing stations and people in protective gear test you in the car. It's safe and painless. Doctors also are using their car parks for the same thing except a nurse or one of the doctors comes out and does it. Should you be tested? That's easy - simply ring or skype your doctor who will advise. I don't know about other countries but here in Aus the government pays for it.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Mondayman]

I didn't realize that's how they were doing it. I imagined myself waiting in line at a walk-in clinic to get tested.

 

[bhobba]

I didn't realize that's how they were doing it. I imagined myself waiting in line at a walk-in clinic to get tested.

All sorts of innovate solutions are emerging to handle this. And while I am critical of a lack of understanding of basic math eg exponential growth and its consequences, people in power seem to be learning. Our PM is quickly realizing he must go harder and faster, increasing restrictions quickly. You know he is on the right track when people are now saying why is he imposing these highly restrictive rules so fast? That is positive.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

The local CV apocalypse: Day 1

IHOP

We are the only customers. Breakfast was great, the $5.99 2+2+2 is a deal.

 

[bhobba]

We are the only customers. Breakfast was great, the $5.99 2+2+2 is a deal.

Seriously though I go to Sizzlers most days for lunch/dinner. They completely reorganized the restaurant by not allowing customers to sit in certain places to ensure good social distancing. Our main retailers, Woolworth's etc, have now set aside time periods pensioners only are allowed to ensure they get a fair go. We are all trying to do the right thing with innovative solutions.

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

I have it from a so-far accurate source (he told me the NY restaurants would be closed then day before Cuomo closed them) that Cuomo is going to shut down the NY borders to all but essential travel (mail, food, gas, etc deliveries) in and out. I can't decide whether I hope that's just a rumor or think it's a good idea. I'm leaning to good idea if it doesn't go on for too long. What do you all think?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

how much time is needed to research then deploy a new Covid-19 testing methods based on your expertise ,starting from the paper work before you even start the research ending with mass production and deployment

best
hagop

For RT-qPCR testing, the timeline is quite short. The WHO developed a RT-qPCR test fairly quickly after the viral RNA sequence became available (the sequence was released on Jan 10, and the WHO released its RT-qPCR test on Jan 13). Various other organizations and companies have subsequently released tests.

For a completely new method based on new technology, the timeline would probably be on the longer side to get FDA approval. Two companies are developing CRISPR-based tests (https://www.biocentury.com/article/...chnologies-wont-lead-designer-babies/']crispr-diagnostics-their-first-proof-of-principle[/URL]) that could potentialy be faster and easier than RT-qPCR testing, though the companies did not give a timeline as to when approval could be expected.