COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[bhobba]

While I agree we must wear masks the necessities of living in summer weather will require modifications to 100% coverage.

You think? Here in Aus during summer it's nearly unbearable, so I have been told. I imagine countries like India would be worse. Fortunately we are now in Winter, and community spread so low the advice is it's not necessary - but if we get local outbreaks it may be required. Also our rules require the moment you get any symptoms, cough, fever etc, you immediately get tested; self isolate, until the results come back negative, then see your doctor. It's not foolproof because you can be contagious before you show symptoms, but with our very low community transmission the feeling is it is not warranted right now if social distancing, hand washing etc is practiced.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bob012345]

In the United States Covid-19 deaths are about 1000 per day. What if it stays that number for years? Would we just normalize to that and carry on until maybe a vaccine reduces that in the unforseable future?

 

[Vanadium 50]

It is yet another case where the news is factually correct, but it leads the public to believe that the news is edited to serve an agenda.

Updated data from The New York Times showed on Monday that health officials in 20 U.S. states have confirmed rising case counts over the past seven days, with sharp spikes reported in North Carolina, Arizona and California. All three states, like most others in the U.S., have recently begun to reopen.

So I looked at North Carolina. They have tripled their testing rates in the last month, but the number of positive tests has held around 8%. (I would say it might have gone up from ~7% to ~8% in that period) So yes, they are reopening, and yes the number of cases is rising, but they don't seem to have anything to do with each other.

Furthermore two-thirds of the NC cases (where we know where they occurred) are in nursing homes or other residential care facilities. 21% of the total deaths statewide came from just ten nursing homes. There's a story there, but not one Newsweek is interested in telling.

 

[atyy]

Health department: No COVID-19 cases from Missouri salon
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/article243380341.html
"... The two stylists tested positive in May, potentially exposing 140 clients and six co-workers to COVID-19.

Of those, 46 people who were potentially exposed took tests and were negative, while all others potentially exposed were quarantined for the duration of their incubation period, health officials said in a news release.

Clay Goddard, director of the Springfield health department, said the Great Clips required people to wear masks and used other preventative measures, such as separating salon chairs and staggering appointments. Health officials are studying the incident to improve their understanding of how to prevent the spread of the virus, he said."

 

[Vanadium 50]

In the United States Covid-19 deaths are about 1000 per day. What if it stays that number for years?

It doesn't work that way.

First, we're down to 800 already. But the curve starts at zero, rises to its maximum, and then decays over time. It doesn't hit a constant. To see why, consider NYC. They have 17,200 deaths so far. Using the CDC 0.27% number, that means the number infected is above 6.4M (above because not everyone who will die has already died). The city's population is 8.4 million, so 76% of the population is infected. You won't see more than 4000-5000 more deaths in NYC because the population is now saturated.

What you are seeing, especially in large countries like the US is outbreaks...um..breaking out in different places at different times.

(Caveats: 0.27% needs to be age-adjusted, and it would be good to separate into nursing home/non-nursing home. I am also assuming the city of hospitalization is the same as the city of residency

 

[bob012345]

It doesn't work that way.

First, we're down to 800 already. But the curve starts at zero, rises to its maximum, and then decays over time. It doesn't hit a constant. To see why, consider NYC. They have 17,200 deaths so far. Using the CDC 0.27% number, that means the number infected is above 6.4M (above because not everyone who will die has already died). The city's population is 8.4 million, so 76% of the population is infected. You won't see more than 4000-5000 more deaths in NYC because the population is now saturated.

What you are seeing, especially in large countries like the US is outbreaks...um..breaking out in different places at different times.

(Caveats: 0.27% needs to be age-adjusted, and it would be good to separate into nursing home/non-nursing home. I am also assuming the city of hospitalization is the same as the city of residency

I was referring to an admittedly worst case imaginary nightmare scenario where the disease never goes away, people can get reinfected over and over and there is no vaccine.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think that's worse than the worst case. We are not seeing a high rate of reinfection, not even in nursing homes. But suppose people were re0infectable, what would happen? Eventually it would wipe out the 85+ population, reducing the 0.27% to something more like seasonal flu.

 

[Astronuc]

While I agree we must wear masks the necessities of living in summer weather will require modifications to 100% coverage.

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/202...ia-hot-weather-complicates-face-mask-wearing/

Outdoors, it's less a concern to wear a mask, if one can maintain distance. Most of the time, one will be in-doors, e.g., at the mall, a grocery store, a shop, or an office building, most, if not all, are air-conditioned. Given the choice of developing a Covid-19 infection, or not, I would hope most folks would wear a mask and avoid such an infection. When going to the grocery store or other stores, I put on a mask before I enter the store, and remove it when I get to my care. The local area continues to experience community spread, as I mentioned previously. This communicable disease is preventable, if proper steps are practiced.

When I ride my bicycle, I wear a mask if there is smoke or dust, so that I do not inhale dust or particulates. At speed on a bicycle, the air pushes through the mask, so it's not uncomfortable. I prefer not inhaling smoke or dust particulates, which could cause pulmonary disease, e.g., lung cancer or silicosis.

 

[atyy]

Mask wearing concerns

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005...ths,-officials-call-for-no-masks-in-gym-class

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/03/which-deamany-black-men-fear-wearing-mask-more-than-coronavirus/

 

[kyphysics]

3.) This is a weird question, but would it be a risk to go to a drive-thru free COVID-19 testing site and end up CATCHING the virus there. Suppose you're negative. You wait in a long line of cars where tons of people are trying to get tested. You may figure some of these folks have legit worries, as they may have symptoms. Some will definitely test positive. They are talking, breathing, and sneezing, etc. in line. The wind is blowing. The workers performing the tests could get the virus on themselves and then when you drive up for your turn maybe the wind blows it on you or you get it from whatever object the testers touch you with.

Is that a low enough probability event that it's worth going out to get a free test. I've seen the lines. They are LONG. I don't go out except for essentials (groceries and gas). Wondering if it's actually risky to get tested.

*reposting a question that never got a response*

Still wondering about this, as I am thinking of getting tested: both for COVID and the immunity/anti-body test.

 

[Rive]

Is that a low enough probability event that it's worth going out to get a free test.

The risk is expected to be low but the question is, that why do you need a test? Do you have symptoms?

Low risk still winning over no gain...

 

[morrobay]

To see why, consider NYC. They have 17,200 deaths so far. Using the CDC 0.27% number, that means the number infected is above 6.4M (above because not everyone who will die has already died). The city's population is 8.4 million, so 76% of the population is infected.

Yes the numbers say 76% of NYC infected, but that seems extraordinarily high. Would like to see wide spread antibody testing in that population to corroborate.

 

[Rive]

Yes the numbers say 76% of NYC infected, but that seems extraordinarily high.

Actually, that number is so far above the suspected herd immunity threshold that it would severely affect the progress of the pandemic for a long while.
It is so high that even with crossing the threshold with extreme high numbers of infected would not make it anything believable.
I do agree, such numbers requires actual confirmation (by testing).

 

[Astronuc]

Three new cases of COVID-19 cropped up around the region Wednesday, with Asotin, Whitman and Nez Perce counties each registering one new positive test result.

The new cases came on the same day Asotin County officials learned their application to move to Phase 3 of Washington’s reopening plan was approved, allowing gatherings of as many as 50 people.

Asotin and Whitman Counties are in Washington State, Nez Perce County is in Idaho.
https://lmtribune.com/coronavirus/a...cle_88d69746-0be6-50c0-a77b-c53a0a57bcdf.html

The case in Whitman County is a female younger than 20 years old who is in stable condition while isolating at home, according to a news release from the Whitman County Health Department. The county had an outbreak of six new cases Monday among people who had a common social link.

Next two Whitman and Asotin Counties is Garfield County with no COVID-19 cases. On the west side of Garfield County is Columbia county with only one case.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

Interesting distribution of cases and fatalities in Idaho.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/...!/vizhome/DPHIdahoCOVID-19Dashboard_V2/Story1
https://coronavirus.idaho.gov/

 

[atyy]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...rms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections
Coronavirus rips through Dutch mink farms, triggering culls to prevent human infections

 

[kyphysics]

The risk is expected to be low but the question is, that why do you need a test? Do you have symptoms?

Low risk still winning over no gain...

I HAD symptoms a while back and would love to know if I have immunity (even though the tests aren't accurate). I'd also know if I have it now (COVID) and maybe didn't really have it previously as I've had a nasty cough for several days and also a lot of fatigue.

 

[kyphysics]

I was dying from wearing a mask in 90 degree heat the other day. I have glasses and the breathing was fogging them up very bad. Summer is a challenge.

 

[wukunlin]

I was dying from wearing a mask in 90 degree heat the other day. I have glasses and the breathing was fogging them up very bad. Summer is a challenge.

Welcome to the club

 

[Astronuc]

States like Texas, California, Arizona, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah, North Carolina, and South Carolina are seeing increased rates of positive COVID-19 tests. Many of these are being attributed to Memorial Day weekend activities, in which many crowds assembled throughout that weekend, potentially exposing themselves.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-cases-second-wave-us-191009665.html

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-se...nce-reopening-economy-over-4000-three-1509055

 

[vela]

California officials attribute the rise in the number of cases to the increases in testing.

officials are closely monitoring two metrics: the positivity rate, which is the proportion of people who have tested positive out of all those who have been tested, and the daily number of hospitalizations. A rise in the former could indicate an uptick in community transmission that’s taking place separately from increased testing. A rise in the latter could mean that more people are becoming seriously ill, possibly jeopardizing the ability of the healthcare system to deal with the influx in patients.

So far, California’s positivity rate has continued to trend downward, and hospitalizations have remained within the range of stability, Ghaly said Friday.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...esting-not-reopening-businesses-officials-say

But I won't be surprised if there is eventually an uptick. The chief health officer here in Orange County resigned the other day, likely because of death threats she received over a mandatory mask order. Her replacement rescinded the order but still urges people to wear masks in public.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...-resigns-amid-controversy-over-face-coverings

One of the local malls reopened the other day, and a reporter went there to interview some visitors about wearing masks. The level of stupid from those who didn't want to wear a mask was a bit disheartening.

 

[mfb]

One indication of better test coverage in the US: Deaths drop faster than new cases, despite deaths happening later than infections. Deaths per day went from a peak of ~2000 (second half of April to early May) down to ~700, while new confirmed cases went from the peak of ~30,000 (all of April) down to ~20,000. Caveat: Improvements in treatment contribute to the difference.

By state we see very different trends, however. New York and New Jersey were hit badly, but then their case and death counts dropped a lot (more than a factor 10 in NY). California and Texas have slow and unstopped upwards trends in new cases while new deaths seem to be roughly constant (since mid April). They are still in that first wave with unclear duration.

 

[bob012345]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-cases-second-wave-us-191009665.html

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-se...nce-reopening-economy-over-4000-three-1509055

Also factor in increased and expanded testing rates at least in Texas.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I HAD symptoms a while back and would love to know if I have immunity (even though the tests aren't accurate). I'd also know if I have it now (COVID) and maybe didn't really have it previously as I've had a nasty cough for several days and also a lot of fatigue.

The first time you said you had Covid, in mid-March, people told you to see a doctor. You didn't. In fact, you boasted about going shopping.

Then again, six weeks later, you told everyone you thought you had Covid. Again, you were counseled to see a doctor.

Now, six weeks after that, you're telling us you are telling us you think you have Covid.

See a doctor. Stop trying to garner sympathy with "Poor me, I have Covid." See a doctor.

 

[Astronuc]

Airline passengers brought COVID-19 into LAX in March — and no one warned the public
https://www.latimes.com/california/...x-with-coronavirus-passengers-were-not-warned

When American Airlines flight 341 to Los Angeles lifted off the tarmac at New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport on a cloudy Thursday in mid-March, much of the country was already on Coronavirus lockdown. The flight was far from full, but the 49 passengers and eight crew shared restrooms, cabin air and a narrow aisle for the six-hour trip.

Though no one knew it then, a man in first class, a retired Manhattan surgeon, was infected with the virus. The day after the flight, he was rushed by ambulance to Cedars-Sinai Medical Center with a high fever and phlegmy cough. The virus spread quickly among those he had come in contact with in the hours after leaving LAX, including at a Westside assisted living facility where a 32-year-old nurse and a dozen others later died.

Another flight, on March 8, from Seoul, a stricken passenger reported running a fever days before boarding the aircraft and went into cardiac arrest the morning after she landed, becoming the first confirmed COVID-19 death in L.A. County! An acquaintance of a relative drove the ill woman and husband to a relative's home. The acquaintance later died from COVID-19.

There was a breakdown in the process to notify all those passengers, crew and other members of the public who were exposed. American Airlines was notified when they were contacted by the LA Times, well after the fact.

Meanwhile, at Fort Benning, eight days after all tested negative, 142 soldiers are now testing positive for COVID-19. About 70 at Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri, have tested positive for COVID-19.
https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-benning-confirms-142-covid-19-cases-in-2-battalions
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your...r-recruits-left-controlled-monitoring-phases/

A new cluster of infections have been reported at a major food market in Beijing.

 

[mfb]

It's interesting how Iceland and New Zealand differ. Iceland got the number of new cases down quickly and was ahead of NZ, but they keep finding new cases. Early May they were at one case every few days already. They are still at one case every few days. Where do these cases come from? New cases per day dropped by a factor 100 in April (50-100/day -> ~0.5/day), but they didn't get rid of it completely. Are they all imported cases?

The Schengen area countries open more and more borders, traveling within Europe gets easier again. So far this happens at new case counts that continue to fall.

 

[Jarvis323]

There is another preprint claiming that the virus mutated in January or early February, producing a strain that is 10 times more infectious than the original. This was thought to be the case a long while ago, but health officials and the WHO have been reassuring us it's not, even up to less than two weeks ago.

It really makes me wonder how capable we are in analyzing the genetics, and why we've been constantly reminded not to worry about mutations. Maybe it's another case of managing the public's fears with white lies/misinformation, or an effort to avoid issues to do with the business aspect of vaccine development?

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEApuq2s6upqwaUUKuyKlakUqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMKrUpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

It also makes me wonder if more, impactful mutations have been occurring besides this one.

Anyways, it seems that the strain might make a big difference in the virulence, so when comparing the spread in different countries and the effectiveness of their strategies, you really need to know which strains are/were going around there and how they differ in virulence.

 

[Astronuc]

Extraordinary measures for a young person in her 20s.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/health/coronavirus-lung-transplant.html

A young woman whose lungs were destroyed by the Coronavirus received a double lung transplant last week at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago, the hospital reported on Thursday, the first known lung transplant in the United States for Covid-19.

The 10-hour surgery was more difficult and took several hours longer than most lung transplants because inflammation from the disease had left the woman’s lungs “completely plastered to tissue around them, the heart, the chest wall and diaphragm,” said Dr. Ankit Bharat, the chief of thoracic surgery and surgical director of the lung transplant program at Northwestern Medicine, which includes Northwestern Memorial Hospital, in an interview.

The young woman was ill for about two weeks before being admitted to the hospital on April 26. She soon needed a ventilator. Her condition kept worsening, and doctors connected her to a machine that pumps oxygen directly into the bloodstream.

Dr Bharat emphasizes that lung transplants are for "relatively young, very functional, with minimal to no comorbid conditions, with permanent lung damage who can’t get off the ventilator."

 

[anorlunda]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont...-burlington-nursing-home/Content?oid=30518875

This is a very emotional story about deaths in a nursing home. Despite forewarning, and despite believing that they were fully prepared, the virus got into this nursing home and killed 21 residents in a short time. That is 21 out of 55 deaths in Vermont so far.

But the article says that the average stay for residents of that home is 3 years, and one of the victims was there for 15 years. Therefore, the assertion that the Coronavirus caused deaths in April that would have occurred in June is not correct.

The April/June comparison would seem to apply to hospice, not to a nursing home. I have yet to see any news reports about Coronavirus deaths in a hospice. Perhaps they don't pay attention to the causes of deaths in hospices.

The article also says

Plus, nearly every Birchwood resident had an advanced directive in place ordering doctors not to provide intubation or other advanced medical care in the case of a grave illness.

Therefore, victims could not be saved by use of ventilators. That fact, rather than the preexisting state of health of the residents could account for the very high mortality rate.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Therefore, the assertion that the Coronavirus caused deaths in April that would have occurred in June is not correct.

Look at the Euromomo data. Age 85+ deaths are down 4.4% from last year at this time. Age 65+ shows a similar trend.

 

[mfb]

After an increase by how much in that age group, 300% for a month? Of course you'll get 4% fewer deaths if 4% of that age group died. I don't know at which number exactly you are looking, otherwise I would use actual numbers.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Of course you'll get 4% fewer deaths if 4% of that age group died.

Which would be restating that people who would have died in June died in April. It has to.

Furthermore, that didn't happen. The 85+ population of Europe is 2.4% x 741M = 17.8M. 4% of that is 700,000. There have been 180,000 deaths. So the effect is 4x larger than just population would lead you to expect - which we already knew: Covid is fatal to the very sickest in that age group.

That means that a statistically healthier population remains, and again, that's saying the same thing a different way.

 

[anorlunda]

That means that a statistically healthier population remains, and again, that's saying the same thing a different way.

Health is not the only thing that distinguishes seniors. I'll wager that a higher fraction of octogenarians have advance medical directives than sexagenarians.

The implication in that Birchwood Nursing Home article is that many of those 21 victims might have lived if they could have been given advanced medical treatment.

But like any other kind of alternate history, that's speculation. Its also speculation any different past action or inaction might have changed the Coronavirus numbers.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The implication in that Birchwood Nursing Home article is that many of those 21 victims might have lived if they could have been given advanced medical treatment.

That's certainly likely.

But like any other kind of alternate history, that's speculation.

Yes, but consider the converse. The converse of "Because of Covid, some deaths that would otherwise have occurred in June would have happened in March" is "If it weren't for Covid, every single person - without exception- who died in March would have been alive in June." Which is more likely?

 

[mfb]

Which would be restarting that people who would have died in June died in April. It has to.

No, it would be people who died in April would have died at some point in the next few years. At age 85 most people die in the next few years.

Furthermore, that didn't happen. The 85+ population of Europe is 2.4% x 741M = 17.8M. 4% of that is 700,000. There have been 180,000 deaths. So the effect is 4x larger than just population would lead you to expect - which we already knew: Covid is fatal to the very sickest in that age group.

That's still more than two months.

Yes, but consider the converse. The converse of "Because of Covid, some deaths that would otherwise have occurred in June would have happened in March" is "If it weren't for Covid, every single person - without exception- who died in March would have been alive in June." Which is more likely?

Now you weakened the statement massively to defend it. The question was never if COVID-19 moved some deaths forward by just a month. The question was how many deaths happened years earlier.

How many die in the 85+ group every month? ~2% or 350,000 in Europe? That went down by 4%, or 14,000? At that rate - even if it would stay constant - it will take a while to match the COVID-19 deaths.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Now you weakened the statement massively to defend it.

The statement was

the assertion that the Coronavirus caused deaths in April that would have occurred in June is not correct.

I think I have argued that there were deaths in April (or at least pre-June) that would otherwise have occurred in June by:

1. Pointing people to the Euromomo data, which shows a reduction. It happens to be true that the fatality reduction is 4x larger than would be explained by just population reduction, but even if it were simply due to that, it would still be true that there were deaths that occurred in April that otherwise would occur in June.
2. Pointing out that the converse is false, or at least miraculous.

I never said that the number of people in this category " matched the COVID-19 deaths". Tell you what - why don't you let me determine what I am saying? You don't have to stick words in my mouth.