Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[artis]

@benorin remember we can only comment not give official advice as that would make someone liable for someone else's possible misuse of the given information.
That being said it is generally much safer outdoors than indoors and that is mostly due to how air circulates and how much of the aerosols that are coming from a possible asymptomatic infected person can spread.

In other words even if someone is infected and also show signs of being sick , while being outdoors you would have to stand very close to the person for a rather long time to get the level of virus particles to become infected. If you stay away the recommended 2 meters and additionally wear a mask then I would say it is ok outdoors.
I personally don't know anyone who would have got it while outdoors, all who had the virus either went to a party or a gathering indoors or simply were inside indoor public spaces like hospitals.
I know a few people who went to hospital with Covid unrelated diseases and while there got infected by Covid.
A guy had a stroke , was taken to hospital while he was recovering there got Covid then needed to recover from both Covid and the stroke.

 

[benorin]

Thanks

 

[atyy]

I have a Q: is 25-30 people gathering together outside in 90 degree whether for a funeral a good idea? Assuming they wear masks. This happens tomorrow so if you can a quick answer it would be appreciated. Thanks

Wakes and funerals are held in Singapore with a limit of 30 people (at anyone hour, but more than 30 people can visit over the day), everyone is masked, and there is safe distancing (not that strict but still quite disciplined), and as far as I know, it is not a problem. One has to note that overall transmission in Singapore has been quite low (active cases are probably 0.1% of the overall population).
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlig...an-attend-wakes-funerals-at-any-point-in-time

 

[nsaspook]

The Delta COVID wave is moving around the US. You'll notice that many southern states like Florida are no longer at peak because cases have fallen there but are rising in others outside that region.
https://covidestim.org/
Move the date slider under the infection map.

 

[BillTre]

Nice map, but I would have used a different color scale.

 

[bhobba]

The Delta COVID wave is moving around the US. You'll notice that many southern states like Florida are no longer at peak because cases have fallen there but are rising in others outside that region.
https://covidestim.org/
Move the date slider under the infection map.

Things are interesting when looking at the effective reproduction number R. People should concentrate on where it is above 1. Fortunately, in NSW, as the very high vaccination rate begins to take effect, with now many postcodes over 90% first dose, and a number of those over 90% second dose, R is plummeting, and the number getting infected is falling. I wonder why? . I am not sure about Victoria - but numbers are continuing to rise. Soon may overtake NSW unless vaccination starts biting as well. Our Premier here in Brisbane wants to open up at over 16-year-olds 90% vaccinated - we have just begun vaccinating twelve and above. I agree with 90%. Two of my doctors think it is unachievable. We will see. I thought it impossible in NSW, but they proved us all wrong. The community in Brisbane is divided. We now have two groups - those like me whose income does not depend on being fully open and those who do. It is easy to guess which group wants 90% and which group does not.

You may or may not be able to view the following, which gives more detail:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aus...-nsw-covid-19-cases-grow-20210922-p58twm.html

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

The Governor today also launched two new webpages to provide expanded COVID-19 data. The first focuses on COVID-19 variants, providing public information on how we track variants, why we track variants and updated data.

The second webpage includes the COVID-19 Breakthrough Data Report, which displays COVID-19 breakthrough cases, hospitalizations and in-depth data over time.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/go...yorkers-states-progress-combating-covid-19-29

NY State Covid infections are dominated > 99% by the Delta. Mu cases rose, peaking in June, then falling during the summer. The state has seen Gamma, Iota and Mu variants, but Delta became the dominant variant, and the case numbers of other variants diminished.
https://covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/covid-19-variant-data

As of data received through September 20, 2021, the New York State Department of Health is aware of:

• 78,416 laboratory-confirmed breakthrough cases of COVID-19 among fully-vaccinated people in New York State, which corresponds to 0.7% of the population of fully-vaccinated people 12-years or older.
• 5,555 hospitalizations with COVID-19 among fully-vaccinated people in New York State, which corresponds to 0.05% of the population of fully-vaccinated people 12-years or older.

https://covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data-report

 

[Astronuc]

Unvaccinated Man Given Choice of Double Leg Amputation or Death After COVID Complications​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/unvaccinated-man-given-choice-of-double-leg-amputation-or-death-after-covid-complications/ar-AAOXPNP

I would guess 'thrombosis'?

Man's wife dies of cancer after she was discharged over Covid-19 patients​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...-discharged-over-covid-19-patients/vi-AAOXdR7

This is not the first story like this that I've heard.

20-year old UNCW student left brain dead from COVID complications, mom says​

https://www.wwaytv3.com/2021/09/28/uncw-student-left-brain-dead-from-covid-complications-mom-says/

WILMINGTON, NC (WTVD) — Tyler Gilreath, 20, thought that if he got COVID-19, he could beat it.

But his mom said Monday that the young University of North Carolina Wilmington student was brain dead from complications of the virus, soon to be taken off life support.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/healthy-student-20-who-refused-to-get-vaccinated-dies-of-covid/ar-AAOXRur

Edit/update: At Billings Clinic, the largest hospital in the state, the ICU is running at 150% capacity with younger and sicker patients admitted daily. The National Guard is on hand to help care for and screen new patients while hallways house the overflow.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/montana-hospital-icu-reaches-150percent-capacity-amid-covid-surge/ar-AAOYrSy

Get vaccinated!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

We lost the entire city of Boston to Covid - in terms of numbers.

The US has passed the 700,000 dead mark - more than the entire population of Boston.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/01/1042...g-but-the-u-s-is-on-the-brink-of-700-000-dead

 

[Sagittarius A-Star]

We lost the entire city of Boston to Covid - in terms of numbers.

The US has passed the 700,000 dead mark - more than the entire population of Boston.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/01/1042...g-but-the-u-s-is-on-the-brink-of-700-000-dead

COVID-19 surpasses 1918 flu as deadliest pandemic in U.S. history

Source:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...9-is-now-the-deadliest-pandemic-in-us-history

 

[PeroK]

We lost the entire city of Boston to Covid - in terms of numbers.

The US has passed the 700,000 dead mark - more than the entire population of Boston.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/01/1042...g-but-the-u-s-is-on-the-brink-of-700-000-dead

By comparison, the five largest western European countries (UK, France, Italy, Spain & Germany) combined have approximately the same population as the US and have about 550,000 deaths. However, the key difference is that the European countries now have significantly higher vaccination levels. In the last week, for example, there were a total deaths of 2,200 deaths in these countries against 9,600 in the US.

 

[pinball1970]

We lost the entire city of Boston to Covid - in terms of numbers.

The US has passed the 700,000 dead mark - more than the entire population of Boston.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/01/1042592683/covid-cases-are-falling-but-the-u-s-is-on-the-brink-of-700-000-dead

Is 700,000 a failure?

I remember Trump talking about trying to keep the numbers of dead to 200,000 or 100,000 in an interview. So according to that yes a failure.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-19-deaths-to-100000-would-be-a-very-good-jobHowever.

The Imperial college London paper from Ian Ferguson's team stated without measures...

16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 Page 7 of 20

' (UK)...due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US..'

Measures were taken. Economy damaged but about 2 million lives saved.
Cases coming down globally in the US and Europe. Success sounds like the wrong word but this could be the final stretch?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Is 700,000 a failure?

Given that a large percentage of those deaths were preventable, the US response has certainly been a failure; and not the medical response, the cultural response.

Added Later:
Political comment removed.

 

[PeroK]

Cases coming down globally in the US and Europe. Success sounds like the wrong word but this could be the final stretch?

There's a piece in today's Guardian warning about a difficult winter in the UK. It echoes what I've been thinking and saying since July, when we seemed to lose the social and political will to fight COVID any longer.

We may be lucky, but I fear we haven't done enough. We have 30,000 -40,000 cases and 100-150 deaths per day and we have nothing in place to try to reduce these numbers. We're relying on Boris's lucky star to get us through the winter, it seems.

The US is in a worse position with serious social and political opposition to anti COVID measures, despite 2-3 times the (per capita) death rate of the UK, which itself is 2-3 times that of other EU countries.

The other country that is struggling is Russia, with 800 deaths per day. Also some other countries in Eastern Europe are bad: Ukraine, Romania and Serbia.

Everyone would like to think that this winter will mark the end of COVID as a serious pandemic. Not least because at the current vaccination rate most of the world's population will be double-jabbed by this time next year. Perhaps by the end of 2022 it will largely be over. It's quite optimistic to think that we might be near the end now.

 

[pinball1970]

There's a piece in today's Guardian warning about a difficult winter in the UK. It echoes what I've been thinking and saying since July, when we seemed to lose the social and political will to fight COVID any longer.

We may be lucky, but I fear we haven't done enough. We have 30,000 -40,000 cases and 100-150 deaths per day and we have nothing in place to try to reduce these numbers. We're relying on Boris's lucky star to get us through the winter, it seems.

The US is in a worse position with serious social and political opposition to anti COVID measures, despite 2-3 times the (per capita) death rate of the UK, which itself is 2-3 times that of other EU countries.

The other country that is struggling is Russia, with 800 deaths per day. Also some other countries in Eastern Europe are bad: Ukraine, Romania and Serbia.

Everyone would like to think that this winter will mark the end of COVID as a serious pandemic. Not least because at the current vaccination rate most of the world's population will be double-jabbed by this time next year. Perhaps by the end of 2022 it will largely be over. It's quite optimistic to think that we might be near the end now.

I agree that there are now pretty much zero restrictions in the UK. Those exceptions are private businesses for employees. If there are any on public transport they are weak not enforced.
The public have taken the lead from the government.
We mainly disagree on the schools question I think. If they have decided to offer the vaccine to 12-15 year olds they need to get on with it.
Keeping them off again will have long term negative effects.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

According to the latest UK ONS Covid Survey, published 1st October, there is currently a very high estimated level of active infections among teenagers in the UK, at about 1 in 22 on average for the UK as a whole (the highest rate recorded so far), but as high as about 1 in 14 in Wales. Across all age groups, it's about 1 in 85. We have also been having about 1000 deaths a week recently (although in the last few days it has dropped a bit compared with the case rate, probably because most of the cases are younger).

In comparison, the estimated level of active infections at the start of May 2021 across all ages (before the delta variant) was about 1 in 1340, but it was not considered safe enough to lift restrictions then even though most vulnerable people had been fully vaccinated. And in mid-May, we had about 42 deaths a week. So how come things are considered safer now, when figures are 15 to 25 times worse and the delta variant is more infectious than previous variants?

The only good news is that death rates rates relative to case rates have improved by roughly a factor of 5 since January, presumably mainly due to vaccination (but possibly also due to the more vulnerable having died already). In January, the death rate was roughly 1/50 of the new case rate but now it's more like 1/250.

 

[BillTre]

That is a fact but has anyone here or elsewhere given a good thought about why this has happened?
Could it be because it's a action-reaction type of phenomena like Newton's third law only in society whereby constantly bashing and shaming certain groups/types of people for their cultural/religious beliefs results in them mounting an opposition? I highly doubt an average conservative wishes to die or have severe Covid.
But the constant decades long political fight between left-right in US is now showing it's "side effects" in other categories like the anti-science turn.

This idea seems backwards to me. (also too political, so I expect things to be removed).
The anti-maskers are saps for the right wing press's manipulation. Although many right wing press are personally taking anti-covind measures, they are still mouthing off about have these measures are bad.
Recently, I read that right wingers are saying its the fault of the "libs" that so many right wingers are dying because the "libs" are saying they should take better health measures, which of course forces them to not do it.
Sounds like an SNL skit.

 

[artis]

This idea seems backwards to me. (also too political, so I expect things to be removed).
The anti-maskers are saps for the right wing press's manipulation. Although many right wing press are personally taking anti-covind measures, they are still mouthing off about have these measures are bad.
Recently, I read that right wingers are saying its the fault of the "libs" that so many right wingers are dying because the "libs" are saying they should take better health measures, which of course forces them to not do it.

There is no politics here Bill and you obviously did not understand the depth of what I was saying. This societal phenomena works similarly to physical action-reaction , the only reason these media can manipulate these people is because there is a large number of them. Living in a 21st century country like US with all kinds of available information etc, what made there to be such a large number of people refusing logical advice?

I simply work from the assumption that people are not dumb as such but that most of them become dumb by making certain choices. Drinking would be one. Now the reason they made those choices is what matters here not the end result.

 

[Evo]

This is a really good article, IMO on this subject. A "we are our own worst enemy" sort of thing?

Lefties Planted the Anti-Science Seed Fueling Vaccine Skepticism

On Dec. 31, 2019, the first case of the coronavirus was recorded, a global pandemic was en route and emerging biotechnology would be our salvation—so long as we embraced it.

The following day, anti-biotechnology activists saw their biggest American legislative win go into effect: federal labeling for genetically modified organisms, or GMOs.

Those rules, pushed forward by political progressives, were supposedly the answer to health concerns stoked by a health disinformation campaign, amplified by the media and seized upon by opportunistic lawmakers pandering to populist fears about “frankenfoods” in the name of “freedom of choice.” Sound familiar?

continued...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lefties-planted-anti-science-seed-075137092.html

 

[bhobba]

Get vaccinated!

In Aus, at least the kids 12-15 seem to get it. Pfizer was approved for use in that age group on 13th September. They are already closing in on 50% first doses. As I said on a forum here in Aus - and the children will show us the way. Seriously it is likely those so far have been influenced by their parents - I suspect it will slow down as vaccination rates get 80%-90%. NSW is nearly at 90% now over 16. Soon could be 90% over 12 where I am in Queensland, still under 70%. Where I once lived, the ACT has smashed the 90% barrier and are now at nearly 93% - and still climbing.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

After discussions with other mentors and removing some political remarks, it has been decided to open the thread up again. Please remember while we all have political views, including me, this is a science forum that explicitly excludes such discussion.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

To get back to script, even some experts are not closely following the fast-changing science on Delta. Our Chief Medical Officer has stated that Queensland did not recently go into lockdown because the cases concerned were vaccinated, and they only have a 25% chance of passing it on. It was in today's Courier-Mail, which is, unfortunately, behind a paywall, so I can't link to it. That may have been true for the original Covid, but the latest research shows it is closer to 50% for Delta and wanes with time:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

Here is the very latest modelling of NSW, which may or may not include the latest data on transmission when vaccinated:
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/nsw-should-be-okay-opening-up

The ACT, where I used to live, has just passed 95%, while NSW is nearly 90% - and both still increasing. With that and the new red pill, I feel increasingly confident, especially when we all get 3rd doses. Who knows - we may get herd immunity which would be marvellous.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/04/world/australia/new-zealand-covid-zero.html

AUCKLAND, New Zealand — For a year and a half, New Zealand has pursued a strategy of “Covid zero,” closing its borders and quickly enforcing lockdowns to keep the Coronavirus in check, a policy it maintained even as other Asia-Pacific countries transitioned to coexisting with the viral threat.

On Monday, New Zealand gave in.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged an end to the elimination strategy seven weeks into a lockdown that has failed to halt an outbreak of the Delta variant, announcing that restrictions would be gradually lifted in Auckland, the country’s largest city.

“We’re transitioning from our current strategy into a new way of doing things,” Ms. Ardern told reporters. “With Delta, the return to zero is incredibly difficult, and our restrictions alone are not enough to achieve that quickly. In fact, for this outbreak, it’s clear that long periods of heavy restrictions has not got us to zero cases.”

“What we have called a long tail,” she added, “feels more like a tentacle that has been incredibly hard to shake.”

On Monday, Ms. Ardern offered a three-stage map out of lockdown, in an effort to “make everyday life a little easier.”

Starting on Tuesday, residents of Auckland, for the first time since August, will be permitted to meet with members of other households outdoors. Younger children will return to classrooms, and there will be a more permissive approach to outdoor exercise at the city’s parks, nature reserves and beaches.

 

[Astronuc]

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) -When her 2-year-old started feeling sick early last week, Tiffany Jackson didn't think it might be COVID-19. No one else in the family was sick. Adrian James just had a bit of a cough. She gave him cough syrup and put a humidifier in his room.

But by Friday he was sweaty and his breathing was labored. Jackson took him to an emergency room in her small town of Mount Vernon, Illinois. Doctors and nurses there did a chest X-ray and swabbed him for COVID - and then airlifted the child to Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital in St. Louis, about 80 miles (129 km) away.
. . .

Adrian James is one of more than 840,000 children under the age of four to contract COVID-19 in the United States since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics (CDC). Hospitalizations like Adrian's remain rare: less than 1% of children with reported cases of COVID-19 are hospitalized and children account for 2.5% of all COVID-19 related hospitalizations, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

https://news.yahoo.com/toddler-ventilator-fights-life-covid-100542831.html

The United States last week crossed the milestone of 700,000 COVID deaths since the pandemic started, including 520 children.

 

[bhobba]

Yes - we must vaccinate children as soon as it is proven to be safe. Not only to prevent tragedies like the story above, but they act as spreaders to others. Getting R as low as possible is essential.

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

Yes - we must vaccinate children as soon as it is proven to be safe. Not only to prevent tragedies like the story above, but they act as spreaders to others. Getting R as low as possible is essential.

Yeah, but the 70 million adults who don't WANT to get vaccinated is the real problem. I'm not saying don't vaccinate children, I'm just saying that's not going to change R very much.

 

[bhobba]

Yeah, but the 70 million adults who don't WANT to get vaccinated is the real problem. I'm not saying don't vaccinate children, I'm just saying that's not going to change R very much.

It depends on where you are. Where I used to live in the ACT, the vaccination has surpassed 95% over 16 and still growing. I am not as pessimistic as some at overcoming vaccine hesitancy.

Thanks
Bill

 

[phinds]

It depends on where you are. Where I used to live in the ACT, the vaccination has surpassed 95% over 16 and still growing. I am not as pessimistic as some at overcoming vaccine hesitancy.

Thanks
Bill

What is "the ACT"

 

[OCR]

What is "the ACT"

Australian Capital Territory

.

 

[phinds]

It depends on where you are. Where I used to live in the ACT, the vaccination has surpassed 95% over 16 and still growing. I am not as pessimistic as some at overcoming vaccine hesitancy.

Move to Mississippi or Alabama in the US and then get back to me.

 

[bhobba]

Move to Mississippi or Alabama in the US and then get back to me.

Point taken. As I said it depends on where you live. The ACT has a very high proportion of highly educated people, a bit like those that post here.

Thanks
Bill

 

[OCR]

. . . a bit like those that post here.

Thanks, Bill. . . .

 

[bhobba]

Thanks, Bill. . . .

You are welcome. Of course, this site is open to anyone that obeys the rules. But we tend to attract a higher percentage of tertiary educated people or those intending to become tertiary educated.

Thanks
Bill

 

[OCR]

Bill! . .

Lol. . .

 

[phinds]

@bhobba just FYI, we have a significant number of people in the US (very specifically Alabama and Mississippi, but not not limited to those states) where people are SO against getting vaccinated that those few people in those communities who DO want to get vaccinated don't want their friends / work colleagues to know that they got it.

Here's a single news article about it but I've seen others:
https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article253168023.html