Is Offshore Oil Drilling Truly Safe?

[Ivan Seeking]

The top kill and junk shots have officially failed. Next, the "lower marine riser package", which appears to be a top hat configuration intended to capture most of the flow, will be tried. They will need to cut the riser pipe at the bop, in order to sit the LMRP onto the bop. Cutting the riser pipe will cause the oil flow to increase, but BP has calculated that the flow should not change significantly.
- As per a news conference with the Coast Guard, and BP, that just ended.

Late Edit: They do sound pretty confident that they can capture most of the oil this way. As I understand this, by intercepting the effluent pipe right at the BOP, they should prevent water from mixing with the oil, which is believed to be what caused clathrates to form, which in turn stopped the flow into the riser pipe to the ship, when they first tried the top hat and dome.

 

[Proton Soup]

when does all the damage to our coasts start ? obama is telling everyone to go to the beach.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

when does all the damage to our coasts start ? obama is telling everyone to go to the beach.

Oil has already penetrated some of Louisiana's critical wetlands [breeding grounds] - home to 90% of the life in the Gulf of Mexico. These are the areas under the greatest threat. The oil will go where the wind and ocean currents take it. Right now, most areas have not been affected. The oil is still a few miles or more offshore. However, some communities have reported that people are getting sick from chemicals in the wind. I think only three beaches have been closed. Some shrimpers are still being allowed to operate. Plumes have been detected at depth - not floating as one would expect - which is thought to be how some of the La. wetlands were hit. No one saw a slick coming, but suddenly, the oil was there in the marshes. It is believed that a submerged, 20 mile long slick, is heading to Alabama.

From yesterday's news
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/28/AR2010052802346.html

 

[magpies]

I suspect the oil stench has to build up before all the plant / animal life dies.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I suspect the oil stench has to build up before all the plant / animal life dies.

It's the oil that does the damage. The stench is a new problem altogether.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The stench could be a real problem if it gets bad enough that people have to leave their homes. Also, even the threat of contaminated air is a killer for tourism. Note that the tourist season, a major source of income for the Gulf region, starts today.

Even now, no one knows what fish may be safe to eat, or not, so the retail end of the food industry should start taking a real hit very soon. Many shrimpers, oyster farmers, and fisherman, are already out of business for the summer.

 

[DnD Addict]

It's the oil that does the damage. The stench is a new problem altogether.

I don't know about that, crude oil has some rather nasty volatile aromatics, like Benzene for instance. As for the toxicity comparisons between the dispersant and the oil itself, are these comparisons acute or chronic?

 

[magpies]

Well if your a plant trying to take in air and instead all you get is oil fumes I am sure that's not good. However you having your water supply tainted with oil is also probably bad too.

Something someone brought up and I was wondering about have any nuclear power plants been shut down because of this? Having oil instead of water to cool off the rods can't be good can it? Checked myself and it doesn't look like any would be near the oil but who knows.

 

[GeorginaS]

It's not just the stuff that's drifting into the wetlands and onto the beaches that's a problem. And not even the ponds and slicks you can see on the surface of the water. They're finding huge "plumes" of oil forming under the water at varying distances from the leak.

The thick plume was detected just beneath the surface down to about 3,300 feet and is more than 6 miles wide, said David Hollander, associate professor of chemical oceanography at USF.

More: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hXrdaztYWC4b-nfTbBOcb6bX0a5gD9FVSOU02"

The first such plume detected by scientists stretched from the well southwest toward the open sea, but this new undersea oil cloud is headed miles inland into shallower waters where many fish and other species reproduce.

The researchers say they are worried these undersea plumes may be the result of the unprecedented use of chemical dispersants to break up the oil a mile undersea at the site of the leak.

Hollander said the oil they detected has dissolved into the water, and is no longer visible, leading to fears from researchers that the toxicity from the oil and dispersants could pose a big danger to fish larvae and creatures that filter the waters for food.
"There are two elements to it," Hollander said. "The plume reaching waters on the continental shelf could have a toxic effect on fish larvae, and we also may see a long term response as it cascades up the food web."

And on and on and on.

 

[Geigerclick]

Then there is the staggering toxity of the dispersants. http://www.wdsu.com/news/23689716/detail.html

This is nasty stuff, a lot has already been deployed, and while breathing fumes in high concentrations is different from mild exposure, it is still toxic, and it's... wait for it... stored in the liver of large fishes! Ahhh yes, let's hide the magnitude of the spill for a while by dumping hundreds of thousands of gallons of toxin. BP and the EPA should be hogtied and beaten with dead leatherbacks.

 

[magpies]

They say those plumes might have been created because of the dispersants they used. Ya I'm not eating fish unless I know where it came from for a fact I think.

 

[GeorginaS]

They say those plumes might have been created because of the dispersants they used. Ya I'm not eating fish unless I know where it came from for a fact I think.

Yeah, good thing that water and fish and whatnot respect those lines drawn on paper, huh?

 

[Cyrus]

For those of you interested, this was a really good piece on CSPAN radio the other day.

Garland Robinette gives his observations on how the federal government and BP are responding to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. He also relates the public reaction to the response at the state, local and regional level. Mr. Robinette is the host of "The Think Tank," which is broadcast live on weekdays on WWL 870AM /105.3 FM radio, from 10:00am to 1:00pm Central Time.

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2010/05/28/HP/A/33474/Garland+Robinette+WWL+Radio+New+Orleans+The+Think+Tank+Talk+Show+Host.aspx

 

[Evo]

For those of you interested, this was a really good piece on CSPAN radio the other day.



http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2010/05/28/HP/A/33474/Garland+Robinette+WWL+Radio+New+Orleans+The+Think+Tank+Talk+Show+Host.aspx

Do states really have oil rights into the gulf? I don't believe so.

 

[magpies]

I think... they get like 2 miles out into the coast? Not sure how correct this is.

 

[Evo]

I think... they get like 2 miles out into the coast? Not sure how correct this is.

Yeah, they don't go far out into the gulf where rigs are. What this guy is saying makes no sense.

 

[magpies]

So what do we know about bp's next attempt? I believe I heard that it could make things worse :(

 

[Geigerclick]

So what do we know about bp's next attempt? I believe I heard that it could make things worse :(

Short of actually spraying cyanide into the mouths of turtles and fishermen, it's hard to imagine that is possible.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

According to BP Director, Robert Dudley, we won't know until the end of the week if the LMRP is working as planned.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/#37423312

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Just looking at the graphic of the failure, it is hard to believe that the kink in the riser pipe is not adding siginficant resistance to flow.

 

[Geigerclick]

This is disturbing.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/31/oil.spill.probe/index.html?hpt=T1

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In yesterday's news conference, when asked about hurricanes, the Coast Guard spokeman, in concert with BP, answered the question indirectly by stating that they have very good procedures for evacuating the ships and platforms. In other words, they all leave. I wonder if this means that the BOP, which, in order to couple with the LMRP, will soon be an open-pipe gusher, is simply left to gush until the storm is over.

I sure hope they are right about the pressure - that cutting the pipe won't cause a significant increase in the flow. What I heard today was that we might expect about a 20% increase in the flow, when the pipe is cut.

Man, this thing just keeps getting uglier.

 

[Astronuc]

I heard today that the CEO of BP denied the existence of any oil plumes. He apparently claimed that the oil is at the surface and they are dealing with it.

BP CEO disputes claims of underwater oil plumes
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_oil_spill_plumes

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Well, they have already stepped up the cleanup efforts in La., as Obama promised on Friday. And while the oil and dispersant create a highly toxic brew, so far they have managed to keep most of the oil from hitting land or critical wetlands. No doubt they are highly motivated at this point! However, according to Gov Jindal, it is believed that the contaminated marshes - the ones hit by heavy oil - were hit by a plume that no one ever saw. They suspect that the plume surfaced in the marsh, after it had passed beneath the oil booms, which were reported to be in place at the time.

I would like to see the bots video the entire plume; from the pipe, up to the surface of the ocean. Based on previous speculation, it sounds like the original plume might be dividing into multiple plumes at different depths; presumably due to temperature gradients, I would guess?

I can't help but worry that with the oil impinging on the most critical areas, a direct hit may not be needed in order for the oil to be devestating to the breeding populations. I would expect there to be a great deal of activity in the waters surrounding the breeding grounds, which are covered with oil and the oil-dispersant mix.

 

[rhody]

Does anyone have access to any official European satellite imagery of the Gulf of Mexico that is less than 3 days old, I can't seem to find anything on Google images that is less than almost two weeks ? I am not accusing the Oil industry or any US Agencies of a cover up, but unbiased third party imagery would be nice to have. Any French PFer's out there have any ?

Rhody...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

... "BP in this instance means 'Blind to Plumes,' " Markey said in a statement Monday...

 

[rhody]

Does anyone have access to any official European satellite imagery of the Gulf of Mexico that is less than 3 days old, I can't seem to find anything on Google images that is less than almost two weeks ? I am not accusing the Oil industry or any US Agencies of a cover up, but unbiased third party imagery would be nice to have. Any French PFer's out there have any ?

Rhody...

Don't know where or how CNN got access to this, but use this http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/04/29/interactive.spill.tracker/index.html" of theirs to track the spill. Image below is as of May 30th, I wonder what it will be like in the middle of August when BP predicts the well finally being capped. If anyone knows where and how CNN got this, please post it.
If a satellite image can be obtained at a similar scale it would be interesting to see if the images agree/disagree and to what extent.

Rhody...

P.S. I checked the link again today: 06/01/2010 and it updates accordingly, the spill appears to be moving closer the the Florida panhandle, is larger, more diffused.
See updated image added below original

 

[jreelawg]

Allegations against BP now include:

Workers getting sick because of dispersants hospitalized. BP claims food poisoning. Expert doctors say they don't think it is food poisoning. Hospitalized cleanup workers file a restraining order against BP to avoid being harassed. Clean up workers are not given any kind of mask to protect them against the fumes. Workers claim BP threatens to fire them if they buy and wear their own masks. BP claims masks are not needed. Meanwhile the dispersants clearly warn against breathing in the fumes.

Second, BP staged a large cleanup effort to impress the president when he went to visit the gulf.

 

[magpies]

You can't find much stuff on the internet as in pictures of that region for obv reasons.

 

[apeiron]

If once every decade or two, we get a spill like this, that is a reasonable cost for such a critical driver of modern life.

What would the cost/benefit story look like now?

In politics and business, there are various moves towards more realistic valuations of human economic activity - triple bottom line accounting for companies, Genuine Progress Indicators (GPI) to replace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a national index.

It seems kind of like inventing brakes for a car which until now has only been driven with an accelerator pedal.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The oil has moved five miles father into the La. marshes, than anyone realized. The good news is that the presence of oil does not automatically mean that the marsh will die. To some unknown limit, the grasses have a certain amount of resiliance.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#37457070

 

[rhody]

The oil has moved five miles father into the La. marshes, than anyone realized. The good news is that the presence of oil does not automatically mean that the marsh will die. To some unknown limit, the grasses have a certain amount of resiliance.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#37457070

Ivan,

That pretty much confirms what the edit to my post# 623 above shows to date as well. CNN (or whoever supplies the link) keeps this up to date so we can witness this unfold. It is sad to watch however.

Rhody...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Twenty-one years after the Exxon Valdez
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#37457330

 

[Ivan Seeking]

(CNN) - Could things get any worse for BP? Maybe. As the oil continues to flow, some are charging that another BP operation in the Gulf is an even bigger disaster in the making.

For six months, Ken Abbott managed BP’s engineering documents for "Atlantis," BP’s deep water platform nearly 200 miles south of New Orleans. He turned into a BP whistle-blower in February 2009 after finding what he says were thousands of Atlantis engineering documents and drawings that were neither complete nor reviewed properly by BP. That, Sawyer now says, was a serious safety violation...

http://amfix.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/02/concerns-about-another-bp-oil-rig-in-the-gulf/

Apparently the Atlantis is capable of releasing up to 200,000 barrels [8 million gallons] of oil per day. If we had a 40-day leak, as we have now, we are talking about a third of a billion gallons of crude. The numbers are mind-boggling.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

BP botched the first major cut and got the saw stuck. They got it out, but now there is concern about getting a clean cut so as to maximize the effectiveness of the coupling.