- #841
BobG
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Ben Niehoff said:Is there any real chance of Palin being nominated in 2012? I don't have a good sense of Republican Party politics...are there enough centrists dissatisfied with her that they would vote against her in primaries?
Normal situation:
Second best way to be the next GOP nominee is to be the runner-up in the previous serious nomination. Reagan runner-up to Ford in '76; nominee in '80. Bush 41 runner-up to Reagan in '80; nominee in '88. Dole runner-up to Bush in '88, nominee in '96. Kemp runner-up to Dole in '96; some loser gets interjected into the '00 campaign. McCain runner-up in '00; nominee in '08. (Who was the runner-up this year? The guy who presented the biggest challenge to McCain or the guy that stayed in the race second longest?)
Third best way is to be an actual VP:
Nixon VP to Eisenhower '53-'00; nominee in '60. Agnew VP to Nixon; resigned and plead "no contest" to tax evasion and money laundering. Ford VP to Nixon; succeeded Nixon, then lost in election. Rockefeller VP to Ford; tossed in a ditch at the next election. Bush 41 VP to Reagan; nominee (and President) in '92. Quayle VP to Bush; never held a political office again. Cheney VP to Bush 43; TBD.
Fourth best way is to be the VP nominee, but only because it gives you a chance to be a real VP. Being a losing VP nominee is the best way to end a political career:
Lodge VP nominee to Nixon in '60; became ambassador to South Viet Nam during Viet Nam war. William Miller VP nominee to Goldwater in '64; never held office again. Dole VP nominee to Ford in '76; finally became Presidential nominee 20 years later. Kemp VP nominee to Dole; never held office again.
Best way to become Presidential nominee:
Bush 43 son of Bush 41; became President.
Palin isn't as smart as past losing VP nominees, so it would be unfair to hold her to the high achievements of past losing VP nominees.
Edit: I didn't want to go all the way back to the 1948 losing VP nominee, since that losing VP nominee did pretty good. Earl Warren went on to be re-elected as Governor California in '50, finished third in delegates for the '52 nomination, then wound up being Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court. Interestingly, in 1946, Warren was nominated to run for Governor of California by the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, and the Progressive Party. Not surprisingly, he won the general election that year, as well.
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