Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Still for Oct 30, 2021:
Yes, finally it was a slowly rising tendency (both for speed and proton density) that continued all day yesterday (today is Oct 31), with speed exceeding 350Km/sec, even exceeded 400Km/sec etc. ..., and continued [rising tendency etc.] even until today, with a max (around the time when the CME arrived - after all it was a weak impact - see ahead) of 458Km/sec at ~11:30UT ...
However, it seems that the initial rising tendency [see previous post yesterday etc.] (and especially the rising in the proton density, accompanied with smooth slowly rising of speed etc.) etc. may have been due to a different phenomenon and not due to the arrival of the CME yet at that point (see ahead) ...

These are from yesterday:

E.g.
" Solar wind
speed: 387.3 km/sec
density: 5.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2319 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2129 UT Oct30
24-hr: C3 0315 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2887 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class and X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: We're still waiting for the CME. Right now minor geomagnetic unrest is happening at Arctic latitudes. This is due to a crack that opened in Earth's magnetic field--a phenomenon unrelated to the incoming CME. So far the much-anticipated storm has not yet begun. Subscribers to ourSpace Weather Alert Service will receive a text message when the CME strikes.

MODELLING THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION--UPDATED: NOAA forecasters have a sophisticated computer program called "WSA-ENLIL," which models the propagation of CMEs through interplanetary space. Here is the latest model for the CME now approaching Earth:

If these images confuse you, here is a labeled frame to help make sense of it.

The computer model predicts that the CME will make first contact with our planet around 1800 UT on Oct. 30th. That time has already passed, so the CME must be moving more slowly than forecasters thought. A slower moving-CME could deliver a weaker blow, and thus a less intense storm.

The model also predicts a sharp increase in solar wind speed (800 km/s) and a 5-fold jump in solar wind density in the CME's wake. Such conditions, if they materialize, could still fuel a potent storm despite the CME's tardy arrival.

Our revised forecast calls for G2 or G3 conditions during the early hours of Oct. 31st. Happy Halloween! "B) Today Oct 31, 2021:

1) [from spaceweather.com]
" WEAK CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 31st at approximately 10:00 UT. The impact was weak--a far cry from the "big hit" we expected. What happened? It's possible that the bulk of the Oct. 28th CME missed our planet; after all, it was directed somewhat south of the sun-Earth line. Despite the feebleness of the impact, minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are still possible in the hours ahead. (...)

AURORAS OVER ICELAND: Last night (Oct. 30th) on the south coast of Iceland, Christopher Mathews was waiting for the CME to arrive when, suddenly, the sky filled with auroras:

"The rock formation just offshore is all that remains of an extinct volcano eroded by North Atlantic waves," says Mathews, who took the picture from the Reykjanes Peninsula.

Spoiler alert: This was not the big CME everyone was waiting for. Instead, Mathews may have observed the near-miss of a different CME, a minor cloud which left the sun on Oct. 26th. It was expected to pass close to Earth on Oct. 30th--and apparently it did. A ripple in the solar wind from the nearby CME disturbed Earth's magnetic field, sparking auroras over Iceland and Scandinavia. "

2) Latest watch:

E.g.
" Solar wind
speed: 428.4 km/sec
density: 12.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1457 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0923 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 1529 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1500 UT

Daily Sun: 31 Oct 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new and active sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 434.5 km/sec
density: 12.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1506 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0923 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 1529 UT Oct30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1510 UT "

...

" Solar wind
speed: 433.6 km/sec
density: 12.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1545 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0955 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 0706 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1550 UT "

And just before closing:

" Solar wind
speed: 423.0 km/sec
density: 11.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1616 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 1615 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 0706 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1620 UT "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 420.7 km/sec
density: 11.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1620 UT
...

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 1615 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 0706 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1625 UT "

...

[Showing a perhaps dropping tendency at this point, as if the main part of storms or of the phenomenon is passing ... (we'll see) ]
[Radio interference, perhaps mainly low to mild, was seen with above earlier speeds etc. ...]

P.S.
1) And a later look:
" Solar wind
speed: 412.6 km/sec
density: 9.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2030 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2000 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 2000 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2035 UT "

And

" Solar wind
speed: 405.9 km/sec
density: 7.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2046 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2000 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 2000 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2050 UT "

+ rising again (!?) ... (or temporary? ...) :
" Solar wind
speed: 435.0 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2056 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2000 UT Oct31
24-hr: C3 2000 UT Oct31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2100 UT "

...

2) Latest description from spaceweather.com (and kind of apologetic ...):
" WEAK CME IMPACT AND GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 31st at ~10:00 UT. The impact was weak--a far cry from the "big hit" we expected--and it sparked an equally weak G1-class geomagnetic storm.

In Alberta, Canada, photographer Harlan Thomas stayed up all night waiting for the predicted strong geomagnetic storm. Instead, he caught this lesser display just before sunrise over icy Dewitt Pond:

"It was a short-lived event," says Thomas. "The auroras were active and battled the twilight until about 45 minutes before the sun came up."

In summary, the Halloween Storm of 2021 was more trick than treat. What happened? It's possible that the bulk of the Oct. 28th CME simply missed our planet. The source of the CME, sunspot AR2887, is located in the sun's southern hemisphere. When it exploded 3 days ago, much of the debris flew south of the sun-Earth line. Computer models suggesting a direct hit apparently gave too little weight to the CME's assymetry.

Hey, it happens! Space weather forecasting is a probabilistic activity beset by the unknowns of storms that get started 93 million miles away from Earth and glide for days invisibly through the near vacuum of interplanetary space before they spring upon us with little warning. May be next time... "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

An interesting follow up post about the previous event etc. (and Oct 31 & Nov 1) will be posted later. In the meantime:

Tue Nov. 2, 2021

A)
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Nov. 4th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space on Nov. 1st by an M1-class solar flare from departing sunspot AR2887. We're not certain yet, but another CME may be following close behind it. Read on...

YET ANOTHER SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR2891 is directly facing Earth--and it just exploded. An M1-class solar flare rocked the sunspot's magnetic canopy on Nov. 2nd. It was slow flare, starting at 0300 UT and lasting for hours.

Above: A movie of the flare at 131 Å. More wavelengths:193 Å, 171 Å, 131 Å.​

Slow solar flares do one thing very well: Produce CMEs. This one hurled a CME directly toward Earth. Newly-arriving data from SOHO coronagraphs show a halo CME due to arrive on Nov. 5th.

X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a minor shortwave radio blackout over Australia and southeast Asia: map. Aviators, mariners and ham radio operators might have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~25 MHz. "

B) Irrelevant other effect/phenomenon (to be explained) right now, today (started rising speed yesterday ...) ... :

" THE SOLAR WIND IS BLOWING: Earth is inside a stream of fast-moving (600 km/s) solar wind, which is causing geomagnetic unrest around the poles on Nov. 2nd. This is not a storm-level event. However, Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras. "

C) Update on A) etc. ...

" A HALO CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: The sun just hurled a storm cloud toward Earth. It launched during the early hours of Nov. 2nd, propelled by an M1.7-class solar flare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2891. This movie from SOHO shows the resulting CME:

Researchers call this a "halo CME" because the storm cloud apppears to form an expanding halo all the way around the sun. It's a sign that the CME is heading directly for our planet.

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 5th. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2.

The X-factor in this forecast is the possible arrival of one or more glancing-blow CMEs beginning Nov. 4th. These were emitted by departing sunspot AR2887 near the edge of the Earth strike-zone. A series of glancing blows on Nov. 4th could set the stage for stronger than expected storms on Nov. 5th. "

D) Recent today's [~Live] Look:
After a speed global overall Max of 632-34 Km/sec a few hours ago (and a first high local max of 619Km/sec at 0700 UT, this morning – while yesterday it closed with a rising ~478Km/sec [or 468? ~ ...] ...), here is a recent picture etc., about a bit less than an hour ago ...:

" Solar wind
speed: 589.3 km/sec
density: 8.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1545 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1305 UT Nov02
24-hr: M1 0301 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1550 UT

Daily Sun: 02 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 poses a threat for Earth-directed M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And a bit later (new rising again, and also, in addition to that below, local max again of ~619Km/sec at ~17:10 UT ...):

" Solar wind
speed: 616.1 km/sec
density: 9.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1712 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1305 UT Nov02
24-hr: M1 0301 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1715 UT "More details perhaps later.

Later look and evaluation revealed an overall global max, for solar wind speed, of 645Km/sec at 15:33 UT, for today [Tue, 2 Nov, 2021] ... (earlier today) ... – ... and estimates are that it starts dropping now, ... (for now at least) ... [19:00 UT] –

A local overall so far Min of 561Km/sec was seen at 18:41 UT ... and overall still dropping (but the wind is still oscillating, up & down ... etc.) ... for now ... [20:00 UT]

P.S. Further closer look discovered [more] ~isolated points/measurements of local minima (in this recent descend dropping region of the curve), as follows:
1) 552 Km/sec at 16:50 UT (Global regional min, earlier today, before a stable drop was obvious ... )
2) 556 ... at 18:34 UT (local overall min signifying the dropping recent segment of the curve )
3) 560 ... at 18:47 ... (Local min, beats the already posted next/cf. earlier above)
and
4) 561 ... at 18:41 (posted earlier .../see earlier above) ...

Notes: 1) It could be that this fast wind was/is still from the Halloween flare and CME ...
2) Radio communications etc., although the fast wind, seemed mostly fine today (just some Geomagnetic unrest) [except for around the live flares times interference ... etc. ... - see earlier ...].

Latest last view before final close of this ~Live Watch:
" Solar wind
speed: 573.6 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2126 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1633 UT Nov02
24-hr: M1 0301 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2130 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wed, 3 Nov., 2021

" HERE COMES A CANNIBAL CME: It's official. The CME heading for Earth is a cannibal. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the CME leaving the sun on Nov. 2nd following a slow-motion solar flare (M1.7) in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2891:

Cannibal CMEs are fast coronal mass ejections that sweep up slower CMEs in front of them. Piled together, the mish-mash of CMEs contain strong magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms.

The slower CMEs, in this case, were hurled into space on Nov. 1st and 2nd by departing sunspot AR2887. NOAA analysts plugged all the plasma clouds into a computer model, and this is what they found:

The animation shows the cannibal cloud sweeping up one whole CME and a portion of another. If NOAA's model is correct, the combined CME will make first contact with our planet around 2300 UT on Nov. 3rd, with geomagnetic storms commencing on Nov. 4th.

The model also predicts a +300 km/s increase in solar wind speed and a 5-fold jump in solar wind density in the CME's wake. These conditions, if they materialize, would set the stage for geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2. "

(More later - see below √)

E.g. (for today's picture - wind speed has in fact indeed dropped today, but still remains on the relatively [medium to] high scale ... [and almost similar levels all day so far ... (with expected oscillations etc. ...)]):
" Solar wind
speed: 523.9 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0940 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0830 UT Nov03
24-hr: C1 1305 UT Nov02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0945 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Updated forecast models from NOAA suggest that a cannibal CME (described below) will hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 4th around 0600 UT. The impact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle down to latitudes as low as ~55 degrees. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

CME impact and high solar wind again

" Solar wind
speed: 762 km/sec
density: 0.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2111 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 2111 UT Nov03
24-hr: C3 2111 UT Nov03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2115 UT

Daily Sun: 03 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Updated forecast models from NOAA suggest that a cannibal CME ... will hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 4th around 0600 UT. The impact could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras spilling out of the Arctic Circle down to latitudes as low as ~55 degrees."

And

"CME IMPACT: Deep space satellites have just detected a CME minutes away from hitting Earth's magnetic field. See the data. It is not yet clear if this is the "Cannibal CME" described ... or a precursor CME that was not swept up by the cannibal cloud. G1- to G2-classgeomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead."

+ the latest announcements:

"CME IMPACT --> GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: A cannibal CME, described below, has just hit Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft show a stairstep structure indicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. G1- to G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead."

"CME IMPACT SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A cannibal CME, described below, hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 3rd at approximately 20:00 UT. Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft show a stairstep structureindicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is underway now."Max wind speed (seen so far): 831 Km/sec at 23:09 UT (on Nov. 3rd)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

News Th Nov 4, 2021 (etc.)

" CME IMPACT SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A cannibal CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 3rd (~20:00 UT). The impact sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with intense auroras around the Arctic Circle. Aurora tour guide Markus Varikphotographed the outburst from Tromsø, Norway:

Varik is one of the most experienced guides in Norway. "Even I was impressed," he says. "The auroras were strong, one of the best displays in years. I am very tired, but happy."

Earth is now passing through the CME's wake. Storm conditions have subsided to category G1 (minor) with occasional episodes of G2 (moderately strong). This means auroras may be visible in northern-tier US states such as Minnesota and Montana. Dark skies are essential, so get away from city lights. (...)

What is a Cannibal CME? It's a CME that eats its own kind. On Nov. 2nd, sunspot AR2891 hurled a fast CME toward Earth. As it approached our planet, it overtook at least one other CME and swallowed it. The mashed-up pair struck Earth on Nov. 3rd (2000 UT). Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft showed a stairstep structure indicative of two or more CMEs pressed together. "

" CME BALLOON LAUNCH: Within minutes of the CME's arrival, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus and Spaceweather.com launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. Ten years of practice helps get a balloon in the air quickly:

We will launch a follow-up balloon after the geomagnetic storm subsides--all part of our decade-long monitoring program to see how solar activity affects atmospheric radiation. And, yes, that *is* a Tardis hitching a ride on the payload. If it survives the storm, it will be sold in the ... (...) . "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A)
" Recent Large Solar Flare Creates Results: Aurora Borealis, from the October 30/31, 2021 geomagnetic storm/solar flare, is captured by astronaut Thomas Pesquet (ESA) aboard the ISS (International Space Station) --- NASA Photo

• 

"
(See https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:6862237729711886336)

B) [from spaceweather.com]

" THE STORM IS OVER: Earth's magnetic field is calming as our planet exits the wake of a Cannibal CME, which struck on Nov. 3rd. Almost 20 hours of strong geomagnetic storms followed the CME's impact. During the apex of the category G3 event, auroras were sighted as far south as California, New Mexico and Colorado. The storm is over now. (...)

CANNIBAL CME SPARKS LOW LATITUDE AURORAS: Auroras in California? Believe it. On Nov. 4th, the glow of a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm spread almost to Los Angeles. Aurora chaser Hongming Zheng took this picture just outside Lincoln CA at latitude +39N:

"This was my southernmost aurora sighting yet!" says Zheng. "A red glow and occasional pillars were visible to the naked eye. I was very pleasantly surprised with this unexpectedly strong geomagnetic storm."

More reds appeared in Joshua Tree, California (+34N). "I could not see them with my naked eye," says veteran observer Don Davis, "but my camera recorded these rare SoCal auroras."

The CME that sparked the display was a special "Cannibal CME"--that is, a mashup of multiple solar storm clouds striking Earth all at once. Cannibal CMEs contain tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that often do a good job sparking auroras.

In Abisko, Sweden, the auroras were so bright they could be seen at sunrise:

"I almost slept through the storm," confesses photographer Oliver Wright. "I woke up just after 5am and I could see auroras through my bedroom window. So quick coffee and headed down to the bridge over the Abisko canyon. I was watching purple auroras getting washed out by the nautical sunrise. I've only ever seen that once before during the Saint Patrick Day geomagnetic storm of 2015."

more aurora images: from Marianne Bergli of Tromsø, Norway; from Marybeth Kiczenski of Bayfield, Wisconsin; from Markus Varik of Tromsø, Norway; from Chris Cook of Cape Cod, Massachusetts; from Greg Ash of Duluth Minnesota; from Genevieve of Greenwood, Maine; from Thomas Spence of Tofte, Minnnesota; from Shelley Johnson of Anacortes, Washington "

C) This one (e.g. from the collection above) is I think amazing and spectacular:
"

Above: Auroras over Bayfield, Wisconsin, on Nov. 4, 2021. " Oh wow - what a show! Never thought I'd see such vivid color and SO MUCH RED!" says photographer Marybeth Kiczenski.

"

D) Current conditions today Fri., Nov. 5, 2021:

" Solar wind
speed: 557.4 km/sec
density: 8.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1020 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0850 UT Nov05
24-hr: C3 1053 UT Nov04
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1025 UT

Daily Sun: 05 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2891 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Note: Speed of course has dropped significantly (from a max of over 800Km/sec - see earlier posts), but still the solar wind speed is in the medium to high scale ...
(No significant interference or problems in communications at this point, currently).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) ~ 1 Week Review:

1) Nov. 8, 2021
"INCOMING SOLAR WIND STREAM: A minor stream of solar wind is approaching Earth, and it could cause polar geomagnetic unrest when it arrives on Nov. 8th or 9th. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Auroras could appear around the Arctic Circle as the planetary K-index reaches a value of 3 or 4."

2) Nov

B)
Nov. 15, 2021
"A DENSE STREAM OF SOLAR WIND: Unexpectedly, Earth is entering a slow-moving but dense stream of solar wind on Nov. 15th. Relatively strong magnetic fields in the stream are opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, setting the stage for possible Arctic auroras."

Today Tue Nov. 16, 2021
" CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION SPARKS AURORAS: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Nov. 15th: data. "Suddenly, the whole sky exploded with colorful auroras," reports Markus Varik from Tromsø, Norway:

"We were surprised by this display because the forecast called for low geomagnetic activity," he says.

Indeed, forecasters were surprised. CIRs are notoriously hard to predict, and this one was not expected to arrive for another 24 hours--if it existed at all.

CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving streams of solar wind. Inside a CIR, solar wind plasma is compressed, sometimes even forming magnetized shock-like structures. They strike with the effect of a mini-CME.

Earth is now inside a fast-moving stream of solar wind following behind the CIR. With wind speeds topping 600 km/s, the Arctic aurora show could continue through Nov. 16th. Stay tuned! "

Picture now:
"Solar wind
speed: 605.5 km/sec
density: 8.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0904 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0748 UT Nov16
24-hr: B2 1005 UT Nov15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0910 UT

Daily Sun: 16 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Overall Global Speed Max so far 630 Km/sec at 02:25 UT ...

Problems in communications and especially srong interference in LW, MW and SW bands receptions ...
(at least in South-East Europe, even as we speak ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) For Nov. 18

"THE NEXT SOLAR WIND STREAM: Earth is exiting one solar wind stream. Another is on the way. Flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere, the gaseous material is due to arrive on Nov 21-22. NOAA forecasters say that a corotating interaction region (CIR) traveling just ahead of the stream could spark geomagnetic activity and Arctic auroras on Nov. 20th."

" Solar wind
speed: 499.0 km/sec
density: 5.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2345 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A3 1817 UT Nov18
24-hr: B1 1546 UT Nov18
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2350 UT

Daily Sun: 18 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

All of these sunspots have simple 'alpha-class' magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "B) Now, Nov 19-20 ...

"Solar wind
speed: 417.8 km/sec
density: 8.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0206 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2 2102 UT Nov19
24-hr: A4 1906 UT Nov19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0210 UT

Daily Sun: 19 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These sunspots have simple 'alpha-class' magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "C) Repeat/Reminder again (Important) (holds/posted/appeared on spacewether.com as a forecast for Nov 18-20, ... and beyond ...):

"THE NEXT SOLAR WIND STREAM: Earth is exiting one solar wind stream. Another is on the way. Flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere, the gaseous material is due to arrive on Nov 21-22. NOAA forecasters say that a corotating interaction region (CIR) traveling just ahead of the stream could spark geomagnetic activity and Arctic auroras on Nov. 20th."

So stay tuned ... It should be interesting ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Already [entering] in the stream ... (increased Solar Wind again, today, Saturday Nov 20, 2021)

" Solar wind
speed: 541.2 km/sec
density: 8.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1646 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A7 1536 UT Nov20
24-hr: A7 1536 UT Nov20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1650 UT

Daily Sun: 20 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These two sunspots are small and quiet. Credit: SDO/HMI "

Increased geomagnetic activity may lie ahead - Auroras and/or problems in communications etc. are possible today, tonight, tomorrow and the days ahead ...

Already observed strong radio interference in SW and MW bands ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Nov [20 &] 21, 2021 :

" ARCTIC AURORAS STOP TRAFFIC: Last night in northern Finland, the auroras were so bright Rayann Elzein had to pull his car to the side of the road. "It was the only safe way to take pictures," he said. "The auroras were changing very fast, and we kept having to reposition our cameras on either side of the road to shoot the action!"

"After a while, the show subsided and we started driving back home... Only to have to stop again 10 minutes later when it flared up again!" he says. "A brilliant pink nitrogen fringe appeared, and the pink was very visible to the naked eye."

The display was caused by a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. The stream reached Earth during the late hours of Nov. 20th and is currently blowing faster than 600 km/s. Arctic sky watchers, prepare to stop your cars... "

[Current Data] E.g. :
" Solar wind
speed: 614.7 km/sec
density: 8.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1646 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1235 UT Nov21
24-hr: B1 1235 UT Nov21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1650 UT

Daily Sun: 21 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These two sunspots are small and quiet. The chance of strong solar flares today is no more than 1%. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And just now (22:15 UT):
" Solar wind
speed: 606.9 km/sec
density: 7.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2211 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A5 2117 UT Nov21
24-hr: B1 1235 UT Nov21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2215 UT "

And Geomagnetic unrest and radio blackouts in the meantime etc. ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Update [Nov 21&] 22, 2021 :

1.) Solar Wind Speed reached a max of 699 Km/sec at 12:19 UT yesterday on Nov 21.

2.) (posted today, Nov 22)
" SOLAR WIND SPARKS ARCTIC AURORAS: A stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, blowing ~ 600 km/s. A gust last night sparked bright auroras over Tromsø, Norway.

"It was an amazing outburst," says photographer Markus Varik. "We drove for more than an hour to find a break in the clouds. So totally worth it!"

The solar wind is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Earth should remain inside the stream for another 12 to 24 hours. "

3.) General Geomagnetic Unrest and problems in radio communications continue today too etc.

4.) Today's data:
E.g.
1) [this morning]
" Solar wind
speed: 557.3 km/sec
density: 7.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1026 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A1 0449 UT Nov22
24-hr: B1 1235 UT Nov21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1030 UT

Daily Sun: 22 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

These two sunspots are small and quiet. The chance of strong solar flares today is no more than 1%. Credit: SDO/HMI "

2) [& Just a few minutes ago]
" Solar wind
speed: 535.1 km/sec
density: 7.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2110 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2 1826 UT Nov22
24-hr: A5 2117 UT Nov21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2115 UT "

3) [& just now before closing this live watch]
" Solar wind
speed: 542.3 km/sec
density: 7.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2116 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A2 1826 UT Nov22
24-hr: A5 2120 UT Nov21
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2120 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Nov 23, 2021

"
SURPRISE: SOME RED AURORAS ARE *NOT* AURORAS: The biggest geomagnetic storm in years erupted this month when a Cannibal CME slammed into Earth's magnetic field. Auroras spread as far south as California and New Mexico. Upon closer inspection, however, not all of the lights were auroras. Some were "SARs."

SARs are pure red arcs of light that ripple across the sky during strong geomagnetic storms. Here's an example from Finland in 2018:

"The SAR was visible to the naked eye for nearly 30 minutes and, after fading a bit, remained visible to my camera for another hour and a half," recalls photographer Matti Helin.

On Nov 4, 2021, Earth experienced a veritable SAR storm. "We photographed SARs as far south as the McDonald Observatory in Texas," reports Jeff Baumgardner of Boston University's Center for Space Physics. "The bands of light swept over our cameras near Boston, then headed south. We knew something special was going on."

SARs look like auroras, but they not the same. Auroras appear when charged particles rain down from space, hitting the atmosphere and causing it to glow like the picture tube of an old color TV. SARs form differently. They are a sign of heat energy leaking into the upper atmosphere from Earth's ring current system.

During the storm on Nov. 4th, an all-sky camera in Capital Reef, Utah, caught a bright one. Play the movie and watch what happens at the 18-second mark:

​

"It is pretty unusual to see an SAR at this low latitude," says Asti Bhatt of SRI International. Bhatt operates MANGO, a continent-spanning network of cameras that monitors the sky for unusual phenomena like SARs.

SARs were discovered in 1956 at the beginning of the Space Age. Researchers didn't know what they were and unwittingly gave them a misleading name: "Stable Auroral Red arcs" or SARs. In fact, SARs are neither stable nor auroras.

"Our group has observed scores of SARs over the last three solar cycles," says Baumgardner. "In 2015 we published a paper describing them. We found that SARs are 'stable' only when compared to very active auroras. When you watch an SAR for an hour or so, it can be quite dynamic."

Space physicists are keen on SARs because they are linked to Earth's ring current--a donut-shaped circuit carrying millions of amps around our planet. The ring current skims the orbits of geosynchronous satellites and plays a huge role in determining the severity of geomagnetic storms. Earth is the only rocky planet that has one.

Above: SARs photographed by the Dynamics Explorer-1 satellite in 1982. More​

SARs are among the reddest things in the sky, with a monochromatic glow at 6300 Å that comes from atomic oxygen in the upper atmosphere. Unfortunately, the human eye is relatively insensitive to light at this wavelength. SARs are usually so faint that no one notices when they pass overhead. Cameras catch them easily, though. Pro tip for photographers: Use a 6300 Å filter.

"At the peak of a solar cycle we typically photograph 30 SARs per year near Boston," says Baumgardner. "We hope this is a start of an active solar cycle with lots more SAR arcs!" "

C.f. also (posted Nov 1):
" AFTERGLOW OF A CME: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 31st. Its weak impact did not spark the strong geomagnetic storm forecasters expected. However, the afterglow was divine. Minoru Yoneto of Queenstown, New Zealand, took this picture as Earth was passing through the CME's wake:

"The auroras were faint," says Yoneto, "but we were lucky because they appeared on a clear night with a nearly New Moon. Please note that you need to use an astronomically modified camera to capture this much red color."

Red auroras were also seen in Tasmania. "The glow appeared in the south," says photographer Peter Sayers. "It was strong and visible from 9pm until 3am the next morning."

Among auroras, reds are the most delicate. They come from atomic oxygen near the top of Earth's atmosphere. Oxygen atoms excited by solar wind spit out red photons very slowly. The radiative lifetime of the transition is 110 seconds--an eternity at the quantum scale. The atoms must remain undisturbed that long to produce their eerie red light. Quiet, patience, and dark skies are required to catch them. Apparently, a weak Halloween CME helps, too. "
-----------------------------

& Now:

Still in the stream, even as we speak ... :
" Solar wind
speed: 533.4 km/sec
density: 8.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1320 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A6 1214 UT Nov23
24-hr: A9 0242 UT Nov23
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1325 UT

Daily Sun: 23 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is growing at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Nov. 25 (spaceweather.com announcement):

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Nov. 27th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. Click to watch the storm cloud leaving the sun yesterday:

The CME was hurled into space by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun's southern hemisphere. Flying upward, the filament split the sun's atmosphere, carving out a "canyon of fire" as it ascended. The glowing walls remained intact for more than 6 hours after the blast.

NOAA models of the CME suggest a glancing blow during the late hours of Nov. 27th. Much of the CME will miss, sailing south of our planet. But the fraction that hits should be enough to spark bright Arctic auroras. "

And the "canyon of fire" (that caused the CME):

(plus hit the link "canyon of fire" [in blue] above for motion ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Finally it was only a weak impact. Sudden increase in speed on Nov. 27 (but not high in magnitude) and simultaneously a significant sudden rise in proton density ... etc. - problems in radio communications etc. were observed, but not a significant magnetic storm ...

(Plus posted on Nov. 29, 2021 : )
" AFTERGLOW OF A CME: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 27th (23:30 UT). The weak impact did not cause a geomagnetic storm, but there was a beautiful afterglow. Aurora tour guide Marianne Bergli photographed it from Tromsø, Norway:

"My guests were a little skeptical at first ... then Boom! Wow, Fantastic," she says. "The colors were absolutely amazing."

The display occurred hours after the CME struck. Earth was passing through the CME's wake when magnetic fields trailing the storm cloud opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in, sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle. This sequence is not uncommon. First contact with a CME often produces surprisingly little activity. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Dec 1 update:

" Solar wind
speed: 478.7 km/sec
density: 6.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1352 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1346 UT Dec01
24-hr: B2 1730 UT Nov30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1355 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Nov 21

Expand: labels | no labels

A new sunspot is growing at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

&

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 3rd when a CME might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on Nov. 29th by an erupting filament of magnetism (movie) in the sun's southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss just as likely as a glancing blow. (...)

AURORA SURPRISE: Forecasters were not expecting this. On Nov. 30th, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm. "It produced the strongest auroras of the season," says Markus Varik, who sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:

CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind streams. They contain shock waves and strong magnetic fields that can mimic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), often producing colorful auroras when they arrive.

"There were dancing purples, pinks, curls, curtains ...you name it!" says Varik. "CIRs produce the most colorful auroras, based on my experience as a tour guide."

CIRs are notorously difficult to predict. This one arrived just ahead of a high-speed stream flowing from a northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. Forecasters expected the stream (and its CIR) to sail north of our planet--a complete miss. What happened instead was a pleasant surprise. "Observed increased solar wind since yesterday Nov 30 ...
(max speed 573Km/sec e.g. at 08:10 UT this morning etc.)
And just now:
" Solar wind
speed: 495.2 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1415 UT "
&
" Solar wind
speed: 506.0 km/sec
density: 6.3 protons/cm3
...
Updated: Today at 1421 UT "Later edit supplement:

" In Abisko, Sweden, Lights over Lapland tour guide Claudio Comi was off-duty, but he couldn't resist dashing out for an impromptu self-portrait:

CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind streams. They contain shock waves and strong magnetic fields that can mimic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), often producing bright auroras when they arrive.

"The auroras became very active after the CIR arrived, and a powerful corona danced overhead," says Comi. "I captured this image at the peak of the display and can say that it was one of the best auroras I have ever seen." "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Some interesting Solar behaviour and Activity since the previous posts, despite no posting etc. - you can see spaceweather.com almanac for details etc. ...

Huge sunspot appearing recently (of the biggest in this cycle etc.) and interesting recent activity these days etc. ... :

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A CME is coming, and it is likely to hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 2nd. Moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives. If the storm materializes as expected, it could set the stage for mid-latitude auroras visible in northern tier US states.
[Concerns other countries too (northern hemisphere ...) ... (depending on latitude etc. and the exact location ...)

(plus warnings for radio blackouts etc. and internet connections around the globe etc. - however regular and mild [still] expected routine perhaps solar phenomena at this point ... - no big worries ... - just caution and for knowledge of possible causes of/for possible events ... - better than not knowing, I think, always, & just in case ...)]Latest picture of spots etc.:

Daily Sun: 31 Jan 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Big sunspot AR2936 poses a continued threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMIPlus cf. https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/solar-imaging-and-techniques.925656/post-6594059

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"GEOMAGNETIC STORM BRINGS DOWN STARLINK SATELLITES: As many as 40 Starlink satellites are currently falling out of the sky--the surprising result of a minor geomagnetic storm. SpaceX made the announcement yesterday:

"On Thursday, Feb. 3rd at 1:13 p.m. EST, Falcon 9 launched 49 Starlink satellites to low Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. ... Unfortunately, the satellites deployed on Thursday were significantly impacted by a geomagnetic storm on Friday, [Feb. 4th]."

Two days before launch a CME hit Earth's magnetic field. It was not a major space weather event. In fact, the weak impact did not at first spark any remarkable geomagnetic activity. However, as Earth passed through the CME's wake, some sputtering G1-class geomagnetic storms developed. It was one of these minor storms that caught the Starlink satellites on Feb. 4th.

Geomagnetic storms heat Earth's upper atmosphere. Diaphanous tendrils of warming air literally reached up and grabbed the Starlink satellites. According to SpaceX, onboard GPS devices detected atmospheric drag increasing "up to 50 percent higher than during previous launches."

"The Starlink team commanded the satellites into a safe-mode where they would fly edge-on (like a sheet of paper) to minimize drag," says SpaceX. "Preliminary analysis show the increased drag at the low altitudes prevented the satellites from leaving safe-mode to begin orbit raising maneuvers, and up to 40 of the satellites will reenter or already have reentered the Earth’s atmosphere."

The Sociedad de Astronomia del Caribe apparently caught one of the reentries over Puerto Rico on Feb. 7th:

​

SpaceX says that the deorbiting satellites "pose zero collision risk with other satellites and by design demise upon atmospheric reentry—meaning no orbital debris is created and no satellite parts hit the ground."

Keep an eye on the night sky this week. You might catch a Starlink satellite burning up overhead."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

This was 3 days ago (Feb 16, 2022):
"HUGE EXPLOSION ON THE FARSIDE OF THE SUN: Earth might have just dodged a bullet. Earlier today, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft observed a tremendous coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the farside of the sun. Helioseismic maps of the sun's farside suggest that a huge sunspot group may be responsible, and it will soon turn to face Earth. See the data and more @ Spaceweather.com. "

The same sunspot responsible for the failing of the multiple (~40) starlink satellites (on Feb 4) is behind this huge explosion too on the farside (Feb 16), returning very soon. It might be intetesting ...

(+Suppl. today, just now, Feb 20, 2022 [early am hours/UT]) Right now increased solar wind & radio blackout in SW & MW bands ...
" Solar wind
speed: 476.4 km/sec
density: 13.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0030 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1942 UT Feb19
24-hr: C1 1942 UT Feb19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0035 UT

Daily Sun: 19 Feb 22

Expand: labels | no labels

All fours of these sunspot groups have stable magnetic fields that pose little threat for strong flares.. Credit: SDO/HMI "

And more recent:
"Solar wind
Speed: 491.6 km/sec
density: 28.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0140 UT
"

The "radio storm" seems to have ended though. It must have been either a crack in Earth's magnetic field (e.g. due to the high wind) or even a live solar flare ... (we'll see the data analysis tomorrow).

And local max for speed just now (minutes ago):

"Solar wind
speed: 499.9 km/sec
density: 27.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0145 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 1950 UT Feb19
24-hr: C1 1942 UT Feb19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0150 UT "

And further increase, just before closing this live watch:

"Solar wind
speed: 512.1 km/sec
density: 20.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0200 UT"

P.S.: + even further increase and more radio interference just now:
" Solar wind
speed: 519.1 km/sec
density: 22.4 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0230 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B8 0220 UT Feb20
24-hr: C1 1942 UT Feb19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0235 UT "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The "radio storm" seems to have ended though. It must have been either a crack in Earth's magnetic field (e.g. due to the high wind) or even a live solar flare ... (we'll see the data analysis tomorrow).

"SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of Feb. 20th, sparking a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Earth is still inside the stream, which is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras."

The wind speed right now was at 512 km/sec with a low density of 8.8 protons/cm³ (while just a bit earlier it was 519..., 9.2 ...).

+ More interesting behaviour is expected:

A)
"FLARES ON THE HORIZON: The northeastern limb of the sun is surging with flares--a sign that old sunspot AR2936 (described below) is about to return. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded thisC5-class explosion during the early hours of Feb. 20th:

The flare was stronger than it appeared. It was partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun. Unobstructed, the explosion was probably M-class. The underlying sunspot will soon emerge into view, potentially exposing Earth to a source of strong flares."

B)
"HERE IT COMES: The source of last week's huge farside explosion is moving closer to the Earthside of the sun. NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is stationed just behind the sun's eastern limb, and it has caught sight of a large ultraviolet hotspot approaching the visible edge of the solar disk:

STEREO-A does not have a white light telescope, so we cannot know for sure that the "hotspot" is actually a sunspot. But it almost certainly is.

Whatever it is, it's big enough to affect the way the surface of the sun vibrates. Researchers at Stanford University are using helioseismology to map the farside of the sun. They've detected something big at the same location:

The timing and location of this active region suggest that it is old sunspot AR2936--the same sunspot that brought down multiple Starlink satelites in early February. It has grown during its transit around the farside of the sun, and could pose an even greater threat when it returns in a few days." (actually about to return now ...)

C) Latest look/picture:
(and speed local max - after that it dropped temporarely, oscillating ...)
" Solar wind
speed: 525.3 km/sec
density: 8.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1415 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1218 UT Feb20
24-hr: C5 0407 UT Feb20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1420 UT

Daily Sun: 20 Feb 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Keep an eye on the circled location for the return of old sunspot AR2939, which caused a huge farside explosion last week. Credit: SDO/HMI"

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"SOLAR WIND STREAM APPROACHES EARTH: A stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. Estimated time of arrival: March 5th. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere, and it could spark minor geomagnetic storms when it arrives."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 1122 UT Mar04
24-hr: C3 2155 UT Mar03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1405 UT

Daily Sun: 04 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2960 is growing rapidly and poses the greatest threat for flares today. Credit: SDO/HMI"

"Solar wind
speed: 449.3 km/sec
density: 7.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1506 UT"

Speed max so far was seen at 10:41 UT, 484km/sec

And just now (local max with an increasing again tendency):

"Solar wind
speed: 454.7 km/sec
density: 7.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1515 UT"

Note: My personal assesment is that we already have entred in the initial incoming stream (and some minor radio interference is present).

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today March 6:
"GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ARE SUBSIDING: A series of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms erupted on March 5-6 as a stream of high-speed solar wind buffeted our planet's magnetic field. Now, Earth is exiting the stream and the storms are subsiding."
The speed was on ~average mainly ~550Km/sec (plus or minus ...)
A max of ~604Km/sec speed was reached during the storm (today, early morning UT hours) ...
[Some (minor perhasps) radio interference was observed on some AM bands (LW, MW, SW) ...]

Now:
"Solar wind
speed: 494.7 km/sec
density: 5.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2115 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 2030 UT Mar06
24-hr: C2 0237 UT Mar06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2120 UT

Daily Sun: 06 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

New sunspot AR2962 is crackling with C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"[Posted (in spacewather.com) March 5]
"A PLASMA VORTEX ON THE SUN: Imagine a vortex of hot plasma wide enough to swallow Earth swirling faster than 50,000 mph. Actually, here it is:

Amateur astronomer Alexander Golitschek photographed the structure yesterday with his local astroonomy club in Darmstadt, Germany. "I recorded this 25 minute movie using a Lunt Solar Systems 152mm H-alpha solar telescope," he says. "I estimate the loop's outer diameter as twice that of Earth."

The vortex might not last long. It gets its structure from curling magnetic fields, which confine the plasma into a loop. At this very moment the loop is winding tighter and tighter--a buildup of tension that could tear the vortex apart."

And latest watch (still today March 6):
"Solar wind
speed: 513.1 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2146 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B8 2140 UT Mar06
24-hr: C2 0237 UT Mar06
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2150 UT"
(Local speed max ... [still oscillating up and down])

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Increased to strong radio interference observed (on AM bands [i.e. MW (mainly), LW and low frequency SW bands]) at this point and a bit earlier (though outside of storm, as of now etc.) for no obvious reason perhaps (at this point) ... - communications caution etc. [is advised] and possible auroras perhaps ... - it could be a crack in Earth's magnetic field ... - we'll see (later perhaps).

An ok level of solar wind speed but really remarkably low proton densities etc. (i.e. on the low side etc.) at this point ... [today March 9, 2022, early morning UT hours ...]

" Solar wind
speed: 413.0 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0245 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2227 UT Mar08
24-hr: C2 0313 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0250 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

A new and possibly large sunspot is emerging at the circled location. Credit: SDO/HMI "

AND

" Solar wind
speed: 414.4 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0324 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2227 UT Mar08
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0330 UT "
[LOCAL MAX for speed]

AND
" Solar wind
speed: 408.5 km/sec
density: 3.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0345 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2227 UT Mar08
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0350 UT "

AND (then significant sudden dropping ...) [e.g.] :

" Solar wind
speed: 255.3 km/sec
density: 2.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0405 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2227 UT Mar08
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0410 UT "

[With an overall min of ~249Km/sec at 04:10 UT ...]
[and a similar smaller and shorter such drop[/possibly smaller ~crack...] later (after the subsequent set of data ...), after oscillating, with local [isolated point] speed min of 269Km/sec at 04:52 UT ...]

AND then rising back up higher, e.g. :
[LOCAL and OVERALL max (of speed) for now ...]
"Solar wind
speed: 416.2 km/sec
density: 2.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0411 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2227 UT Mar08
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0415 UT "

Further, oscillating a bit up&down ... :
" Solar wind
speed: 405.2 km/sec
density: 4.0 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0419 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 2227 UT Mar08
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0425 UT "
(with a local min at 0415 UT of ~ 402... (or 403... [?]) ...)

[For example,] It could be another crack due to e.g. a CIR passing (the data above resembles a bit) - I am waiting on possible auroras reports ...

Finally, before closing this almost live watch, another major drop (resembles a CIR again ...):

"Solar wind
speed: 396.1 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0440 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0004 UT Mar09
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0445 UT "

Later look (another relative rising again as part of oscillation - not a significant new phenomenon):
"Solar wind
speed: 417.1 km/sec
density: 2.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0630 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0058 UT Mar09
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0635 UT "

And local speed max
" Solar wind
speed: 422.0 km/sec
density: 2.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0634 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 0058 UT Mar09
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0640 UT "

And with full new day data now [morning, Wed, March 9, 2022] (and local/global speed max around that point of ~426Km/sec [at 06:23UT]):
" Solar wind
speed: 425.0 km/sec
density: 2.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0645 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0647 UT Mar09
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0650 UT

Daily Sun: 09 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2960 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that habors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

While a bit later followed by another speed drop and [a] local minimum for proton density, and right after local min (for speed) ...
"Solar wind
speed: 398.0 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0705 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0703 UT Mar09
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0710 UT "

" Solar wind
speed: 378.1 km/sec
density: 1.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0716 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0703 UT Mar09
24-hr: C1 2227 UT Mar08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0720 UT "

Note: Global min for proton density 1.07protons/cm3 at 04:10 UT ... see above - global speed min there too ...

End of this watch (for now).

Useful announcement:
"POSSIBLE CME IMPACT THIS WEEK: A faint CME (movie) might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on March 10th. It left the sun on March 7th following the eruption of a magnetic filament; no sunspots were involved. The glancing blow could spark minor G1-class geomagnetic storms later this week."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

1)
"A CME PASSED BY EARTH YESTERDAY: During the late hours of March 10th, a CME passed by Earth. Ripples from the near miss sparked auroras in northern Europe bright enough to see through city lights. Another CME is coming, but it won't miss. Details below."

2)
"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (CATEGORY G2): A full-halo CME is heading directly for Earth. ETA: late on March 13th. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the storm cloud leaving the sun earlier today:

Note: The bright "star" at the lower right of the sun is Jupiter.​

This CME is the result of a long duration C2-class solar flare near sunspot AR2962. Normally, C-class flares are not considered to be strong. However, this one lasted nearly 12 hours, allowing it to pump plenty of energy into the CME.

Moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible after the CME arrives. During such storms, naked-eye auroras may appear in northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington. Power grids and satellites will experience little to no effect, however.

A new model of the CME from NASA pinpoints the arrival time around 1800 UT on March 13th. In this animation, the yellow dot is Earth:

Geomagnetic storms, if they materialize, could spill into March 14th, making this a Pi Day geomagnetic storm. That's appropriate. After all, auroras form a circle around Earth's magnetic poles.

Take another look at the NASA model. The CME hits Venus less than a day before it reaches Earth. The CME won't spark a geomagnetic storm on Venus. It can't; the planet has no internally-generated global magnetic field. Instead, the impact will erode a small amount of atmosphere from Venus' unprotected cloudtops.

Geomagnetic storms: One of the perks of living on Earth. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on March 13-14."

3)
" Solar wind
speed: 411.6 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2245 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 2232 UT Mar11
24-hr: M2 2232 UT Mar11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2250 UT

Daily Sun: 11 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

The most active sunspot on the sun today is AR2965, which is crackling with C-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

4)
"M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected an M2-class solar flare from sunspot AR2964: movie. A pulse of X-rays ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a brief shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. This flare is not expected to produce a significant CME."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

March 13
1)
"A BIG CRACK IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: For an hour on March 13th, a big crack opened in Earth's magnetic field--one of the biggest in years. (For specialists: BsubZ was less than -20 nT.) Solar wind poured through the gap, adding its energy to that of the CME which struck earlier in the day. This increases the chances that high-latitude auroras may remain visible at least through the early hours of March 14th."

2)
"CME IMPACT SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 13th. The impact sparked a moderately strong G2-class geomagnetic storm. When the CME arrived, "the sky exploded," reports John Dean, who sends this picture from Nome, Alaska:

..."

March 14
1)
"SUBSIDING GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A G2-class geomagnetic storm that began on March 13th when a CME hit Earth's magnetic field is subsiding now. It could flare up again as Earth moves through the CME's magnetized wake, but probably as a weaker G1-class storm. Auroras will retreat to the Arctic Circle on March 14th. "

2)
"CME IMPACT SPARKS BRIGHT AURORAS: As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 13th. The impact sparked a moderately strong G2-class geomagnetic storm, which lasted more than 12 hours. "It was the best Northern Lights show for years," reports Jónína Óskarsdóttir, who sends this picture from Fáskrúðsfjörður, Iceland:

Other observers echoed Óskarsdóttir. "Best display I've seen in years," says Alan C. Tough of Moray, Scotland. "Brightest aurora in 7 years," reports Laura Kranich of Kiel, Germany. "This was the best I've seen here in the south of Norway," says Liz Gyurgyak.

In addition to auroras, the CME also jolted Earth's magnetic field and caused electricity to flow through the soil of northern Norway. Citizen scientist Rob Stammes measured these effects from his space weather observatory in the Lofoten islands.

The whole episode is a sign of strength from young Solar Cycle 25--and a hint of things to come. If forecasters are correct, Solar Max will arrive in 2 to 3 years bringing even stronger storms. If you haven't seen auroras yet, you might soon."

 

[Stavros Kiri]

" AURORAS IN MOTION: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 13th, sparking a 15-hour geomagnetic storm and some of the best auroras in years. Photographer Göran Strand of Sweden had time to make a whole video. The best auroras are at the end:

"The show started at 01:00 local Swedish time on March 14th," says Strand. "There were some of the most active coronas I've ever seen with such fast moving activity. It was truly an amazing show and one I will remember for a long time." "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Local speed max below on an increased solar wind (right now) and geomagnetic unrest, since yesterday (last night) and today Th March 24, 2022:
"Solar wind
speed: 554.8 km/sec
density: 8.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1246 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0821 UT Mar24
24-hr: C8 0145 UT Mar24
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1250 UT

Daily Sun: 24 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2975 is crackling with C-class solar flares. Even stronger M-class flares may be in the offing. Credit: SDO/HMI"

Overall speed max 597Km/sec at 08:17 UT ...
&

"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: Watch this movie. A big new sunspot group is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. It is crackling with C-class solar flares and could soon pose a threat for stronger M-flares. With a primary dark core twice as large as Earth, the sunspot is an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. We recommend the projection method."

NOTES: 1) also, these are from yesterday:
"A GLANCING BLOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY: NOAA forecasters say that a CME might deliver a glancing bow to Earth's magnetic field later today. The impact, if it occurs, could spark geomagnetic unrest on March 24th. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras."
&
"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: A large sunspot is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb today. Philippe Tosi photographed it from his backyard observatory in Nîmes, France:

"It is a big one," says Tosi, who inserted an image of Earth for scale. The sunspot's primary dark core is at least twice as wide as our planet. Furthermore, newly-arriving images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory suggest there may be additional dark cores following just behind it.

The dimensions of the sunspot make it an easy target for safely-filtered amateur telescopes. Don't have a filter? Try this projection technique, instead."

2) and these are from March 21:
"YET ANOTHER GLANCING-BLOW CME: Another CME is heading for Earth, and it's a little off target. A glancing blow (or near miss) is possible during the late hours of March 23rd, according to NOAA forecasters. This will be the 3rd time in the past week that a CME has almost landed a direct hit. Even a near miss can produce bright Arctic auroras. Best case scenario for auroraphiles: A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm."
&
"AURORAS LOVE EQUINOXES: A CME passed near Earth yesterday, March 20th. It didn't hit. But at this time of year a near miss is enough, because auroras love equinoxes. Christopher Mathews witnessed a beautiful display from his backyard in Hraunborg, Iceland:

"My expectations last night were pretty minimal," says Mathews. "The hoped-for CME impact was mostly a clean miss. But because it was the equinox (when Northern Lights seem to come out more often), I decided to watch the skies anyway, and I'm glad I did!"

It's true. Auroras really do love spring. Researchers call it the "Russell-McPherron effect." During the weeks around equinoxes, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field, allowing solar wind to enter. Even a weak stream of solar wind or an off-target CME can spark a good display at high latitudes.

Another off-target CME is on the way. ETA: March 23th. Thanks to Russell and McPherron, it doesn't need to land a solid blow for skies to turn spring green."

 

[Oldman too]

In Memoriam, The Parker Solar probes namesake has died at 94.
From Science news at a glance.
LOSS FOR SOLAR PHYSICS Pioneering heliophysicist Eugene Parker died last week at the age of 94. In the mid-1950s, he predicted the existence of solar wind—soon proved by early space missions. He also thought myriad “nanoflares,” too small to see, heat the Sun’s atmosphere, another idea that has gained credence. The Parker Solar Probe, now in close orbit around the Sun, is named in his honor, the first NASA spacecraft to be dedicated to a living person.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SOLAR FLARE, TSUNAMI, AND RADIATION STORM: A strong flare on the sun this morning (Mon., March 28 2022) kicked off a remarkable sequence of events: a solar tsunami, a solar radio burst, a solar proton storm, a terrestrial radio blackout and a polar cap absorption event. The explosion also (almost certainly) hurled a CME toward Earth.

 

[Oldman too]

SOLAR FLARE, TSUNAMI, AND RADIATION STORM: A strong flare on the sun this morning (Mon., March 28 2022) kicked off a remarkable sequence of events: a solar tsunami, a solar radio burst, a solar proton storm, a terrestrial radio blackout and a polar cap absorption event. The explosion also (almost certainly) hurled a CME toward Earth.

Would this be the one mentioned?

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Would this be the one mentioned?
View attachment 299061

1) yep!

2) & as a result:

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G3-CLASS): Strong G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible during the early UT hours of March 31st when a Cannibal CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. During such storms, naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as, e.g., Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50o). North Americans should be alert for auroras after local nightfall on March 30th. The hours before dawn on March 31st are probably best for Europeans.

A CANNIBAL CME IS APPROACHING EARTH: On March 28th, sunspot AR2975 unleashed a frenzy of solar flares--more than 17 in all. There were 11 C-class flares and 6 M-flares. At least two full-halo CMEs emerged from the chaos. Click to watch the storm clouds leaving the sun:

Above: A SOHO coronagraph movie of multiple CMEs on March 28, 2022.​

The first CME in this movie was produced by an M4-class flare at 1129 UT. It departed the sun traveling 1259 km/s. The second CME was produced by an M1-class flare at 1923 UT. It departed even faster, traveling ~1700 km/s.

A NOAA computer model suggests that the second CME will overtake the first, merging into a single "Cannibal CME" before striking Earth's magnetic field around 0300 UT on March 31st. Click to view the complete model:

Cannibal CMEs are fast coronal mass ejections that sweep up slower CMEs in front of them. This NASA movie shows what happens. The mish-mash contains tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms.

If the NOAA model is correct, the density of solar wind plasma around Earth could increase 10-fold when the CME arrives, while the solar wind speed will top 700 km/s. These events would set the stage for G2- to G3-class geomagnetic storms.

Observing tips: North Americans should be alert for auroras after local nightfall on March 30th. For Europeans, the hours before dawn on March 31st are favored. When chasing auroras, dark skies are essential; go to the countryside. Urban glare can overwhelm auroras even during a strong geomagnetc storm. "3) PLUS this is fresh new! (another new event just a few hours ago, today March 30, 2022):

" X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.3-class solar flare (March 30 @ 1737 UT). The source is active sunspot AR2975--the same sunspot that has already hurled at least two CMEs toward Earth this week. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

​

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Here is a blackout map. Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

A CME is almost certainly emerging from the blast site. SOHO coronagraphs have not yet detected the cloud, but there is strong circumstantial evidence. For instance, the US Air Force has detected a Type II solar radio burst, a type of natural radio signal generated by CME shock waves. Also, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory has imaged a solar tsunami apparently generated by a CME leaving the sun's atmosphere. "

4) AND the picture now:
"Solar wind
speed: 395.4 km/sec
density: 6.9 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2030 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X1 1737 UT Mar30
24-hr: X1 1737 UT Mar30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2035 UT

Daily Sun: 30 Mar 22

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot AR2975 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI "

[~Regular solar wind (and local max at this point) before the rise due to the coming storms ...]

5) And a local min, a bit later on, just now, before closing this live watch:
"Solar wind
speed: 364.1 km/sec
density: 4.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2055 UT "

 

[Oldman too]

I'm looking forward to a good "light show", now if I can get the cloud cover to cooperate. (these kind of events can also have cool effects on the CDC sensors on ISS external cameras.)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I'm looking forward to a good "light show", now if I can get the cloud cover to cooperate. (these kind of events can also have cool effects on the CDC sensors on ISS external cameras.)

true

&
"THE CME IS ALMOST HERE: A CME just hit NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft , and it will reach Earth only minutes from now. This is the Cannibal CME we've been waiting for. It could spark a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm During such storms, naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as, e.g., Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50o)."

" Solar wind
speed: 505.8 km/sec
density: 38.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0226 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 2152 UT Mar30
24-hr: X1 1737 UT Mar30
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0230 UT "

Warning for communications etc. ...

 

[Oldman too]

Clouds... all I can do is be patient and hope for a well timed "sucker hole".

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Clouds... all I can do is be patient and hope for a well timed "sucker hole".

Lol ..., ~ now is a good or the best time, but ~ same here ...