Space Stuff and Launch Info

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Falcon 9 might return to flight within a day. SpaceX has sent a drone ship to the planned landing area - they must expect at least some chance to get FAA approval in time. 12 days would be an exceptionally short turnaround after a launch failure, but it looks like the fix is simple.

 

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NASA cancels the $500 million VIPER lunar rover. Or should we say Congress cancels it?
The rover is built and on track for launch in September 2025. NASA spent the money for construction, NASA spent the money for a launch contract. All that's left to do is finishing the test program and keeping the rover fully functional until its launch. But the program cost hit some magical +30% budget overrun threshold which automatically triggered a review of the program - and that didn't recommend spending the remaining $84 million that would be needed to actually send the vehicle.

The launch will still happen, but Astrobotic now plans to carry a mass simulator while the rover will rot in some storage room.

 

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SpaceX has concluded the Falcon 9 accident investigation.
An oxygen leak in a line leading to a sensor. This sensor was not critical, so SpaceX removed the sensor and the line leading to it. They also reinforced some other lines.

The FAA has allowed Falcon 9 to resume launches - not concluding the investigation yet, but finding no public safety issue.
SpaceX now aims at a Saturday launch.

Two weeks between successful flights would be a great launch cadence for most companies. Doing that after a launch failure is unheard of.

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Boeing has made progress studying the Starliner issues.
Press conference
Still no return date, and it appears Boeing didn't properly test various aspects of the capsule before launching.
The backup option, launching Crew-9 with two astronauts and making the Starliner crew stay for another 6 months in its 8-day mission, is more feasible now that Falcon 9 can fly again. NASA will ask for a few missions with the new configuration before Crew-9, but SpaceX should reach these quickly.

 

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Successful return to flight of Falcon 9 after 15 days, launching a batch of Starlink satellites. Two more are planned within a day, using all three launch pads as soon as SpaceX could.

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NASA nears decision on what to do with Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft
A lot more detail about the thrusters. Boeing and NASA understand what went wrong now, what's still not fully clear is the extent of the damage in the Starliner in space.
A decision how to proceed could happen within a week.

Crew-9 will fly in August. NASA has now decided that the next crew will also fly on Dragon (Crew-10) in early 2025. The first operational Starliner mission could happen after that (so ~August 2025). Maybe later, but certainly not earlier.

 

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NASA says it is “evaluating all options” for the safe return of Starliner crew
A flight readiness review that was scheduled for August 1 was cancelled, NASA wants to give an update next week.

One informed source said it was greater than a 50-50 chance that the crew would come back on Dragon. Another source said it was significantly more likely than not they would. To be clear, NASA has not made a final decision. This probably will not happen until at least next week. It is likely that Jim Free, NASA's associate administrator, will make the call.

If NASA decides that it's not safe enough to return with Starliner then we are unlikely to see a 6 months crew mission as next flight. It seems unlikely that Boeing is willing to pay for another certification flight either. Maybe NASA will pay something extra for another shorter flight? Relying on Dragon alone is possible, but not ideal.

Trivia: If the Starliner crew returns on Dragon, they will be the first people to use four orbital spacecraft for launch or return in their career. Both flew on the Space Shuttle and Soyuz before.

 

[Rive]

This 'Starliner' more and more looks like a failed project.

 

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The ISS resupply spacecraft Cygnus usually launches on Antares, but that rocket used Russian engines so it's currently not available (a transition to US-built engines is planned). In the meantime, three of them will be launched by Falcon 9. After the second of these launches a few hours ago, apparently Cygnus didn't raise its orbit as planned. They seem to understand what went wrong and it's still planned to reach the ISS on Tuesday.

Even if it doesn't make it to the ISS: The station keeps supplies for months, so even with the two extra astronauts they won't run out. The next Crew Dragon can fly with more food and fewer science experiments, and another Cargo Dragon resupply mission is planned for September already.

A lot of accidents and incidents with important missions recently.

 

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The Starliner saga continues. NASA likely to significantly delay the launch of Crew 9 due to Starliner issues

Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
[...]
sources described the process to update the software on Starliner as "non-trivial" and "significant," and that it could take up to four weeks.

Yes, this is the same Starliner program that undocked autonomously before. It's the same capsule that flew the first uncrewed flight test - didn't reach the ISS, but it certainly had the software to undock from it!

What made Boeing remove that functionality? And why does it sound like they only start working on that now? Certainly this has been a high priority item since Starliner showed more issues in space?

The ISS only has two docking ports shared between Dragon and Starliner. Currently both are used for Crew-8 and Starliner's crewed flight test. NASA strongly prefers launching the next crew (i.e. Crew-9) before returning the previous one, but that only works if Starliner leaves.

NASA will ask for a few missions with the new configuration before Crew-9, but SpaceX should reach these quickly.

Since July 27, Falcon 9 has flown 6 missions already.


Edit: Cygnus has now made the first two orbit raising maneuvers and is on the way to the ISS.

 

[berkeman]

What made Boeing remove that functionality? And why does it sound like they only start working on that now? Certainly this has been a high priority item since Starliner showed more issues in space?

Yikes. Sounds like we need a cowboy space plan, with an EVA after one of the astronauts undocks the craft from inside, points it down and boogies out the hatch...

 

[Flyboy]

The Starliner saga continues. NASA likely to significantly delay the launch of Crew 9 due to Starliner issues
Yes, this is the same Starliner program that undocked autonomously before. It's the same capsule that flew the first uncrewed flight test - didn't reach the ISS, but it certainly had the software to undock from it!

What made Boeing remove that functionality? And why does it sound like they only start working on that now? Certainly this has been a high priority item since Starliner showed more issues in space?

The ISS only has two docking ports shared between Dragon and Starliner. Currently both are used for Crew-8 and Starliner's crewed flight test. NASA strongly prefers launching the next crew (i.e. Crew-9) before returning the previous one, but that only works if Starliner leaves.

Since July 27, Falcon 9 has flown 6 missions already.

You have got to be kidding.

At this point I think the folks at Boeing are actively going out of their way to make this even more of a fiasco.

 

[Astronuc]

NASA says chances are growing that astronauts may switch from Boeing to a SpaceX ride back to Earth
https://apnews.com/article/boeing-astronauts-starliner-nasa-spacex-e2912c86bcb19dbcecee407fd146e3df

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — What should have been a quick trip to the International Space Station may turn into an eight-month stay for two NASA astronauts if they have to switch from Boeing to SpaceX for a ride home.

There’s lingering uncertainty over the safety of Boeing’s new Starliner capsule, NASA officials said Wednesday, and the space agency is split over the risk. As a result, chances are increasing that test pilots Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams may have to watch from the space station as their Starliner is cut loose to return to Earth empty.

If that happens, NASA would leave behind two of four astronauts from the next SpaceX taxi flight in late September, with the vacant seats set aside for Wilmore and Williams on the return trip next February. The pair expected to be gone just a week or two when they launched June 5 as Starliner’s first crew.

Not stranded, just delayed for a while . . . .

 

[Filip Larsen]

More clarifying details from NASA on the latest development (or lack thereof) regarding Starliner docked at ISS:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/...l-disagreement-on-safety-of-starliner-return/

Since the issue with the thruster oxidizer valve now seem to have been reproduced on ground it is puzzling to me why this issue was not discovered in all the testing that went before a crewed launch. Clearly, something should have been done differently during testing.

 

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No earlier than August 26 for Polaris Dawn
That means it's now planned to fly before Crew-9.

It will be the first privately funded mission focused on advancing crewed spaceflight.

 

[Flyboy]

More clarifying details from NASA on the latest development (or lack thereof) regarding Starliner docked at ISS:
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/...l-disagreement-on-safety-of-starliner-return/

Since the issue with the thruster oxidizer valve now seem to have been reproduced on ground it is puzzling to me why this issue was not discovered in all the testing that went before a crewed launch. Clearly, something should have been done differently during testing.

Boeing? Ignoring proper testing and safety procedures? Noooo, perish the thought.

 

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Boeing? Ignoring proper testing and safety procedures? Noooo, perish the thought.

Impossible! A new report finds Boeing’s rockets are built with an unqualified work force.
No, this article is not about Starliner, this is SLS.

People found this old Boeing article:

Just because the Starliner can fly to and from the International Space Station without human intervention does not mean humans can’t take charge.

Guess they didn't expect people to actually ask for that capability?

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Starship is ready for flight 5

 

[Astronuc]

Chinese rocket breaks apart in low-Earth orbit, creating a cloud of space debris, US Space Command says​

https://news.yahoo.com/news/chinese-rocket-breaks-apart-low-163416688.html

One of China’s Long March 6A rockets has broken apart in low-Earth orbit and created a debris cloud consisting of hundreds of pieces, according to multiple space debris-tracking entities.

The rocket launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center on Tuesday to deliver 18 G60 satellites into orbit, which marks just the first deployment for the Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology group’s Thousand Sails constellation.

Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology did not respond to CNN’s request for comment. US Space Command, a branch of the US Department of Defense, confirmed the breakup of the rocket on Thursday.

 

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That is the fourth breakup in seven launches of Long March 6A. It happened at 800 km altitude, so the debris will stay in space for decades to centuries. The planned constellation will need 100+ launches. Producing 300 large debris objects (and who knows how many smaller ones) every other launch isn't going to work, they have to fix that problem.

 

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After a scrub yesterday, SpaceX plans to fly two Falcon 9 from Florida with just 13 minutes in between. 12:50 UTC and 13:03 UTC today, that is in two hours and a few minutes.

Looks like SpaceX will have separate livestreams, the second one starting while the first mission is still in flight:
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-8-3
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-10-7

It wasn't planned that way, but we might will see this more often in the future. It reduces the effort for range safety.

Edit: One launch happened, the other was delayed by a day.

 

[Astronuc]

NASA’s Management of Space Launch System Block 1B Development
Aug 8, 2024 - https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/ig-24-015.pdf

While NASA requires its aerospace contractors to have quality assurance programs that comply with SAE International’s AS9100D standards on quality management systems, we found Boeing’s quality management system at Michoud does not adhere to these standards or NASA requirements. NASA engages DCMA to conduct surveillance of Boeing’s core and upper stage manufacturing efforts at Michoud, and when deficiencies in quality are found, DCMA issues Corrective Action Requests (CAR) to the contractor. CARs are labeled Level I through IV, with Level I the least serious deficiency.

From September 2021 to September 2023, DCMA issued Boeing 71 Level I and II CARs, as well as a draft Level III CAR.According to DCMA officials, this is a high number of CARs for a space flight system at this stage in development and reflects a recurring and degraded state of product quality control. Boeing’s process to address deficiencies to date has been ineffective, and the company has generally been nonresponsive in taking corrective actions when the same quality control issues reoccur.

NASA inspector general gives damning assessment of Boeing's quality control
https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/ig-24-015.pdf

Ongoing issues with Boeing’s Starliner spaceship have been front and center this summer, but a new government report highlights other shortcomings of the company's aerospace work.

The report, released Thursday by NASA’s Office of Inspector General, calls into question Boeing’s standards and quality control for its part in NASA’s efforts to return astronauts to the moon.

In NASA's development of its next-generation megarocket, known as the Space Launch System, it gave Boeing the contract to build the rocket system’s powerful upper stage.

But according to the report, Boeing’s quality control systems fall short of NASA’s requirements, and some known deficiencies have gone unaddressed. What's more, the workers on the project are not, as a whole, sufficiently experienced or well trained, according to the inspector general.

From 2019 - https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-20-005.pdf
From 2016 - https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-16-028.pdf

NASA OIG - 2023 Report on NASA’s TOP MANAGEMENT and PERFORMANCE CHALLENGES
https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/mc-2023.pdf

NASA report calls for 'financial penalties' over Boeing's Starliner
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...penalties-over-boeing-s-starliner/ar-AA1ozbQJ

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/spa...-astronauts-space-station-february-rcna165587
NASA might keep Boeing astronauts on the space station until February — and tap SpaceX to bring them home
The two astronauts were meant to stay in space for about a week, but problems with the Starliner capsule have left them waiting for more than two months.

Boeing Has Created the Flight Delay to End All Flight Delays​

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2024/08/boeing-starliner-delay-return-spacex/679401/
Boeing sent two NASA astronauts to space for eight days. They could be there for eight months.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-astronauts-life-in-space/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/07/starliner-nasa-boeing-spacex/

 

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NASA wants to decide what to do with Starliner within a week or so.


Another commercial Crew Dragon mission has been announced: Fram2, planned for later this year, will be the first crewed mission to fly over the polar regions. It's another mixture of tourist flight and some science program. All four passengers have some connection to the polar environment. Website of the project, news article

Chun Wang, who got rich with cryptocurrencies, finances the flight. He dropped some hints on Twitter over months, but no one noticed: One, two, ...

Jannicke Mikkelsen will become the first or second Norwegian* and first Norwegian woman in space, Rabea Rogge will become the 13th German and first German woman in space.

*depending on how you count Marcus Wandt with a dual citizenship

 

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An interesting case study on how to report news, or how not to.

The Register: SpaceX tries to wash away Texas pollution allegations
The Verge: SpaceX faces accusations it violated the Clean Water Act
Popular Science: SpaceX accused of dumping polluted Starship wastewater in Texas for years (original title: SpaceX accused of dumping mercury into Texas waters for years)
Jalopnik: SpaceX Has Been Polluting Texas Water for Years
and so on.

They are all based on this CNBC article: SpaceX repeatedly polluted waters in Texas this year, regulators found. It claims that there were excessive mercury levels in the water. Where would mercury come from in a system that doesn't use it? No one knows. Actually, we do. The article doesn't cite its source but it is this government document (large PDF). It has the actual measurements on page 177. Mercury: "<0.133μg/l" - below the detection limit. The maximum for drinking water is 2 μg/l, the water SpaceX has is at least an order of magnitude below what you could sell as bottled water. On page 79, the measurements are summarized again, but this time the entry for mercury is given as 133 μg/l. Another measurement had an equivalent error. What is obviously a typo converted a negligible concentration to a problematic one. CNBC didn't care, they found an ecologist who is worried about that "mercury concentration".
SpaceX pointed this out and CNBC updated its article.
Problem solved, right? That would be too easy. Here is the current version. It still quotes the ecologist being worried about mercury, and instead of discussing the actual lab measurement it exclusively quotes the copy of it that has the typo:

SpaceX said in its response on X that there were “no detectable levels of mercury” found in its samples. But SpaceX wrote in its July permit application — under the header Specific Testing Requirements - Table 2 for Outfall: 001 — that its mercury concentration at one outfall location was 113 micrograms per liter.

Is there anything else useful in the article?
* Some people complained about something. Well, shocking.
* A claim that SpaceX operated its water deluge system without authorization. It's not exactly secret when they use it. Certainly a government agency would have told them to stop if that were the case.

 

[Astronuc]

Ongoing saga of not-stranded, just-delayed astronaut crew of the Starliner craft.

NASA delays Boeing Starliner return flight again amid 'major discussion' about astronaut safety​

https://news.yahoo.com/news/nasa-delays-boeing-starliner-return-174851220.html

 

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NASA acknowledges it cannot quantify risk of Starliner propulsion issues

If NASA decides to bring Wilmore and Williams home on Starliner, Bowersox said the agency will have to accept more risk than officials originally expected. NASA officials were unable to quantify how much additional risk the thruster problem might pose to the astronauts if they rode back to Earth inside the spacecraft.

This looks increasingly like an uncrewed return. That is not without risk, but it's a smaller and well-understood risk. Between Starliner undocking and Crew-9 arriving, something like a day to a few days, the emergency escape plan for the Starliner crew would be to hop into the Crew-8 Dragon, with only improvised seats and no pressure suit.
NASA seems to prefer the option where Crew-9 only launches with two astronauts in that case. Not sure who that would be. Flying the commander (Zena Cardman) and the pilot (Nick Hague) would be a logical choice, but then NASA has to kick out the Russian cosmonaut (Aleksandr Gorbunov) because Starliner has a problem. Maybe they fly with the commander and Gorbunov.

If Hague gets removed from the crew, it will be the second time he doesn't get to the ISS. He launched on Soyuz MS-10 which had to abort and didn't reach orbit (he made a successful trip later).

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Boeing, Lockheed Martin in talks to sell rocket-launch firm ULA to Sierra Space

A deal could value ULA at around $2 billion to $3 billion, the sources said.

This is almost for free. Rocket Lab has a higher market cap despite only launching Electron and building some satellite components at the moment. Someone is very pessimistic about the future of ULA if that number is right.

 

[Astronuc]

WSJ - NASA's Plan B: Why SpaceX Could Finish Boeing’s Starliner Mission
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/nasas-plan-b-why-spacex-110000526.html

NYTimes - Stranded in Space? NASA Doesn’t See the Starliner Astronauts That Way.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/stranded-space-nasa-doesn-t-142109496.html

Not stranded, just delayed. Meanwhile, they have nice views.

 

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German rocket blows up British soil for first time since 1945! Source

Rocket Factory Augsburg performed a static fire test with the first stage of their new rocket at their launch site in northern Scotland, but something went wrong and the stage got destroyed in a big fire and explosions. Statement by the company
BBC has a video.
This rocket was supposed to make its first flight within 2 months or so, now they have to find out what went wrong and build a new first stage.

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If Crew-9 launches with just two astronauts, it's going to be Cardman and Gorbunov - keeping the commander and the seat swap agreement. It would mean Nick Hague misses a ride to the ISS for the second time, but at least without excessive g-forces from an abort here.

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Polaris Dawn is still planned for August 26, just a week away.
Mission briefing
Short summary

 

[Astronuc]

NASA says decision on Boeing Starliner crew's path home coming Saturday​

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...r-crews-path-home-coming-saturday-2024-08-22/

 

[Vanadium 50]

At this point I think the folks at Boeing are actively going out of their way to make this even more of a fiasco

It's the McDonnell-Douglas way. "So, you want your boys back on the ground? We can do that....but the price just went up."

 

[Filip Larsen]

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/...tarliner-heres-what-we-know-and-what-we-dont/

On the eve of this fateful decision, the most consequential human spaceflight safety determination NASA has had to make in more than two decades, Ars has put together a summary of what we know, what we believe to be true, and what remains yet unknown.

 

[nsaspook]

 

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Eric Berger:

I'm now hearing from multiple people that Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams will come back to Earth on Crew Dragon. It's not official, and won't be until NASA says so. Still, it is shocking to think about. I mean, Dragon is named after Puff the Magic Dragon. This industry is wild.

The commercial crew contracts in 2014 wouldn't have happened without Boeing. Only they were trusted enough to make NASA take that risk, with SpaceX seen as wildcard who might or might not deliver. By 2017-2019 that looked like an even race. SpaceX was the first to make an uncrewed flight in March 2019 but then had that capsule explode on the ground in a test the following month. By late 2019, both seemed on track for a crewed mission in mid 2020.

- SpaceX did that, reaching the ISS in May 2020 and starting routine crew missions after that.
- Boeing screwed up its uncrewed flight test in December 2019, needed until May 2022 to make another one, and only flew crew in July 2024. Now they can't even return that crew safely and their direct competitor has to help.

Will be interesting to see what happens to the Starliner program next. Would NASA request another uncrewed flight (delivering cargo, it won't be useless)? Will Boeing keep spending money on it, or cut its losses?


Phil McAlister, chief of the Commercial Space Division, has been replaced. This division includes the Commercial Crew program. No official reason given, but it's easy to make guesses.

 

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NASA press conference (ongoing)
They confirmed that Starliner will return without crew.
Dragon Crew-9 will fly with two astronauts and the Starliner crew will transfer to Crew-9, returning in early 2025. The 8 day mission will last 8 months.

Many references to the two Space Shuttle accidents, explaining why NASA is more cautious now.
No decision on how to proceed afterwards yet, they'll return the vehicle and do more tests on the ground and then decide what to do.

A lot of political damage control as well, calling it a test mission frequently.

 

[Astronuc]

NASA decision against using a Boeing capsule to bring astronauts back adds to company's problems
https://apnews.com/article/boeing-s...usiness-nasa-8e5f6414629efcc0a78d43fb9c778333

NASA’s announcement Saturday that it won’t use a troubled Boeing capsule to return two stranded astronauts to Earth is a yet another setback for the struggling company, although the financial damage is likely to be less than the reputational harm.

Once a symbol of American engineering and technological prowess, Boeing has seen its reputation battered since two 737 Max airliners crashed in 2018 and 2019, killing 346 people. The safety of its products came under renewed scrutiny after a panel blew out of a Max during a flight this January.

And now NASA has decided that it is safer to keep the astronauts in space until February rather than risk using the Boeing Starliner capsule that delivered them to the international space station. The capsule has been plagued by problems with its propulsion system.

https://apnews.com/article/boeing-spacex-nasa-astronauts-starliner-e4e81e5a6c23dee2f8f72260ddea011c

 

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Polaris Dawn has been shifted by 1 day because the launch pad has a helium leak.

The new target is now 3:38 a.m. EDT (07:38 GMT) on Wednesday, in 1 day and 6 hours.

 

[Astronuc]

A different Dawn - A spaceplane breaks barriers, reaching incredible heights and speeds
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...ing-incredible-heights-and-speeds/ar-AA1pvkxu

Dawn Aerospace, based in Christchurch, New Zealand, is making waves in the aerospace industry with its groundbreaking approach to creating a reusable spaceplane. But why should this matter to you? Imagine a future where space travel is as routine and affordable as flying across the country. This is the vision Dawn Aerospace is working towards, and its recent achievements bring us one step closer to that reality.

Dawn Aerospace's latest test flight, conducted as part of its Campaign 2-2 development program, saw its uncrewed Mk-II rocket-powered aircraft reach transonic speeds of Mach 0.92 and an altitude of 50,000 feet (15.24 km).

This achievement represents a substantial enhancement in performance, with improvements of three to five times compared to previous metrics. The company is now ready to begin Campaign 2-3 in September, where it hopes to achieve supersonic flight for the first time. The overarching goal is to create a spaceplane that combines the performance of a first-stage rocket with the predictability and rapid turnaround of a conventional aircraft.

 

[Tom.G]

Eric Berger:I'm now hearing from multiple people that Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams will come back to Earth on Crew Dragon. It's not official, and won't be until NASA says so. Still, it is shocking to think about. I mean, Dragon is named after Puff the Magic Dragon. This industry is wild.

I'm assuming that the "Puff the Magic Dragon" reference is to the song by that name.

That song is about the helicopter gunships used in the Vietnam war. I did a small amount of work in the development of that minigun. Most of my project job was for the Daddy of that minigun, the Vulcan anticraft gun. That's a Gatling-gun-style gun developed at the General Electric Missile and Armament division which fired explosive rounds, at several thousand rounds a minute. The minigun on the helicopters were several times faster!

Somehow, I fail to see the connection between the Starliner spacecraft and some rather extraordinary military armament.

Oh well.