What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[LowlyPion]

Warning. There's a bit of foul language.

I think O'Reilly is a raging narcissist. Not at all that dissimilar to Palin.

I thought O'Reilly was a total embarrassment for any network interviewer the other night yelling at Barney Frank and just being boorishly rude and calling Frank really rude names. It was amazing to see Frank control his visible anger at being bushwhacked in the interview and manage to rise above it and dismiss O'Reilly's rantings. Only on Fox. The journalism of desperation.

 

[WarPhalange]

If Obama wins, I may retire from Politics and just enjoy having a President whom I respect and trust.

5P6UU6m3cqk[/youtube] You have g...eclare that he's as good as it will ever get?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You have got to be kidding me.

I am far past the point of kidding about the US Presidency. And yes, I think there is a good chance that Obama will be the greatest US President that I will see in my lifetime.

Of course, the problems that the next President faces are monumental. This is no time to have Joe Sixpack in the White House - that's how we got here.

 

[WarPhalange]

And yes, I think there is a good chance that Obama will be the greatest US President that I will see in my lifetime.

Oh, I agree with you on this part. I'm just asking if you're really willing to lower your standards like that.

We've already seen Obama change his position on something (i.e. FISA bill, not exactly a minor issue) just to gain more support for his campaign. Added to that his soft stance on the Bush Administration (That he's not crying for their heads is soft. They are criminals and he will just forgive and forget?), he doesn't seem like he'd be a great president. Far from the failure of the current admin, but not great.

If you're saying Obama will be the greatest president in your life, you are just accepting the fact that future presidents will be worse and just don't care. I don't understand that mentality. I don't know how old you are, but it's like you're just giving up.

Of course, the problems that the next President faces are monumental. This is no time to have Joe Sixpack in the White House.

Joe Sixpack doesn't deserve to be in the WH, ever. If we wanted to pick some regular guy for office we could just as well go into a bar and pick a random person instead of having expensive campaigns and elections.

 

[WhoWee]

Oh, I agree with you on this part. I'm just asking if you're really willing to lower your standards like that.

We've already seen Obama change his position on something (i.e. FISA bill, not exactly a minor issue) just to gain more support for his campaign. Added to that his soft stance on the Bush Administration (That he's not crying for their heads is soft. They are criminals and he will just forgive and forget?), he doesn't seem like he'd be a great president. Far from the failure of the current admin, but not great.

If you're saying Obama will be the greatest president in your life, you are just accepting the fact that future presidents will be worse and just don't care. I don't understand that mentality. I don't know how old you are, but it's like you're just giving up.
Joe Sixpack doesn't deserve to be in the WH, ever. If we wanted to pick some regular guy for office we could just as well go into a bar and pick a random person instead of having expensive campaigns and elections.

I occurred to me this week that Obama must ALREADY be the greatest Senator of our time...only explanation of his meteoric rise?

 

[quadraphonics]

We've already seen Obama change his position on something (i.e. FISA bill, not exactly a minor issue) just to gain more support for his campaign.

There are those who would consider it a good thing for a candidate to adapt his platform in order to maximize support. You could even make the case that the entire legitimacy of democratic government is based exactly on such outcomes, and that this is why our electoral system is explicitly designed to produce them, and every presidential candidate in history has behaved in that way. Sure, you don't want some spineless goof in the White House, but I don't see how a rigid ideologue would work out any better. The whole premise that any time a candidate changes a position it amounts to some fatal admission of weakness is just silly. If a change of position increases democratic support for a candidate, then you are left with only two options: either said change is indeed a good idea, or democracy is a bad idea.

BTW, I don't like the FISA shenanigans any more than the next guy, but I don't see how it would help anything for Obama to hang himself on that issue.

 

[LowlyPion]

I occurred to me this week that Obama must ALREADY be the greatest Senator of our time...only explanation of his meteoric rise?

If you want to look at meteoric, based on inconsequential ability and experience, the Republicans have that in spades with Palin. She is seemingly totally unsuited and incapable of leading the country. And if Bush hadn't set such a low threshold of capability, neither McCain nor Palin would ever be considered fit for the top of the Executive branch of the Government.

 

[Astronuc]

Schwarzenegger to candidates: Get back to issues
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/schwarzenegger_presidential_race

SAN FRANCISCO - Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Tuesday that the presidential candidates should end the smear campaigns and get back to the issues.

Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are wasting time making accusations that have nothing to do with the topics Americans want to hear about, he said.

"Look at what the presidential campaign has reduced down to: They now are accusing each other of things that have nothing to do with the economy, that have nothing to do with health care, that have nothing to do with the environment, that have nothing to do with, you know, how we deal with foreign countries," Schwarzenegger said.

The California governor made the comments during a discussion with Time magazine Managing Editor Richard Stengel at the American Magazine Conference.

The presidential race has turned negative in the last week, as McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, has raised Obama's ties to 1960s-era radical William Ayers and the Obama campaign released a video recounting McCain's involvement in the 1980s Keating Five savings and loan scandal.
. . . .

I concur with Arnold!

 

[LowlyPion]

Schwarzenegger to candidates: Get back to issues
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/schwarzenegger_presidential_race
I concur with Arnold!

I'll second that.

If only he could prevail on the others in his party.

 

[Gokul43201]

I occurred to me this week that Obama must ALREADY be the greatest Senator of our time...only explanation of his meteoric rise?

Can we agree that he is the only senator that made a bold, and prophetically wise pronouncement on our biggest engagement of this decade - the Iraq War? (at around the same time that McCain was stoking the Bush administration propaganda by pointing to Iraq as the cause of the anthrax attacks)

 

[WhoWee]

Can we agree that he is the only senator that made a bold, and prophetically wise pronouncement on our biggest engagement of this decade - the Iraq War? (at around the same time that McCain was stoking the Bush administration propaganda by pointing to Iraq as the cause of the anthrax attacks)

Only if we can agree that his plan for health care will put many small businesses (companies with annual revenues of less than $500,000) into danger of bankruptcy with mandated requirements. Companies of this size have already seen profits eroded by increases in minimum wages, increased utility costs (some rates have doubled in the past 3 years), decreases in revenues due to shrinking consumer purchases, and increased COGS due to rising fuel (delivery) expenses. I'm personally affiliated with a major health insurance company. Due to current economic conditions...insurance rates have increased (across the board) drastically over the past few days. In preparation of this posting, I ran a quote sample for a 70/30 $3,500 deductible, $4,000 max out of pocket - $5,000,000/$1,000,000 comprehensive medical plan with preventative rider/accident/emergency/prescription for a family of 4 in reasonable health...the cost is $1,100 per month. Small business ($500,000 revenues) owners earning $25,000 to $50,000 per year personally can not afford to purchase health insurance for their employees...it is not realistic. To further analyze, an average business of this size may have 2 to 4 full time employees. Assuming the employees DON'T have families of 4...only 2...the average cost = approx $5,000 per employee. A 50% employer contribution = $5,000 to $10,000 per year additional out of pocket cost to the business owner. Health care reform is necessary...but, leading with mandated coverage is not the way to fix the system.

 

[Gokul43201]

Only if we can agree that his plan for health care will put many small businesses (companies with annual revenues of less than $500,000) into danger of bankruptcy with mandated requirements.

I will respond after you tell me what relevance this has to his "meteoric rise" in the senate?

 

[WhoWee]

I will respond after you tell me what relevance this has to his "meteoric rise" in the senate?

I decided to just agree with you on your point...it probably didn't hurt him. I don't think it qualifies him to be President...but it DID make him stand out at that moment in history...good point!

Then, I segued into a subject that concerns me...hoped you would take a serious look.

 

[Gokul43201]

I decided to just agree with you on your point...

Then, I segued into a subject that concerns me...hoped you would take a serious look.

It looked like your agreement was contingent upon a further discussion of another point:

Only if we can agree ...

Health care reform is necessary...but, leading with mandated coverage is not the way to fix the system.

To my knowledge, the Obama plan for small business does not outright mandate coverage for employees. It provides a few alternative options.

They are all covered here: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/documents/mclooneblog/FactSheetSmallBusinessFinal.pdf

There's more in this WSJ op ed: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122152292213639569.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Given the current inefficiencies in our system, the impact of the Obama plan will be profound. Besides the $2,500 savings in medical costs for the typical family, according to our research annual business-sector costs will fall by about $140 billion. Our figures suggest that decreasing employer costs by this amount will result in the expansion of employer-provided health insurance to 10 million previously uninsured people.

 

[Gokul43201]

A big gain for Obama over the last week, on both markets, :

Market Update:

               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 08     $73.0    $26.5      0.785   0.243

 

[LowlyPion]

I just finished watching a very well received Obama speech in Indiana. McCain should be very worried.

Meanwhile McCain is puttering around in Pennsylvania trolling for electoral votes that he can't win and it looks like Obama is making gains in states that McCain took for granted.

I watched it on Fox and it was a bit surreal because the Fox ticker was at times trying to tie Obama to Acorn and listing all of the claimed Acorn voter fraud, while Obama was absolutely blasting McCain flat and noting his "new" mortgage policy was already enacted into law with the 700B package.

Admittedly it was in Indianapolis, but 21K enthusiastic people is a still pretty good showing.

 

[Amp1]

Originally Posted by BobG
If Obama wins, I think you could see him exercise some real bipartisanship and place a Republican or two in his cabinet.

If Obama wins, I'll bet Hagel is on the really short list for Secretary of Defense.

If Obama wins,I hope and plead with him to ask Colin Powell to accept as Sec. of Defense!(and he has foreign policy expertise)

 

[LowlyPion]

In other news the Sheriff in Cook County has suspended evictions of homeowners based on the fact that so many have turned out to be renters that are current in their payments.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/cook-county-sheriff-suspe_n_132914.html

 

[turbo]

If Obama wins,I hope and plead with him to ask Colin Powell to accept as Sec. of Defense!(and he has foreign policy expertise)

After Powell lied for Bush to get us into the Iraq War, I think we've had enough of his "help" and expertise.

 

[BobG]

I am far past the point of kidding about the US Presidency. And yes, I think there is a good chance that Obama will be the greatest US President that I will see in my lifetime.

Of course, the problems that the next President faces are monumental. This is no time to have Joe Sixpack in the White House - that's how we got here.

If the history of the last few decades are any guide, the economy will turn around within the next year and Obama's chances for re-election should be very good.

On the other hand, if the government bailouts occurring world wide don't work and if civil war erupts anew in Iraq, Obama could look worse than Jimmy Carter.

I agree the problems facing the next President are monumental ... and very unpredictable in how they'll turn out.

 

[Amp1]

Whowee said:

...Only if we can agree that his plan for health care will put many small businesses (companies with annual revenues of less than $500,000) into danger of bankruptcy with mandated requirements...

Obama - I'm not sure of actual numbers - stated that a majority of small firms will fall BELOW the $250,000 bar. Actually, a business with a half million or more in profits isn't exactly small, more like mid-sized to large hopeing for conglomorate. Also, since more than 80% in working people earn less than $250,000 it would mean a tax cut targeted in the correct manner. Like Obama said to McCain "...we would be ok..."- meaning their life style would not be hurt where they could notice unlike the people under the poverty line, in the lower middle class, mid-middle class, even some upper middle class; who suffer more because its a larger piece of their income they lose supporting the tax cuts and public welfare for the wealthy and ultra-wealthy, corporations and individuals.

 

[Amp1]

Turbo-1, I believe Bush/Cheney misinformed Powell, directed him to suppoort their claim and generally left him out of the loop when they realized he was not sopping up their deception and wasn't in agreement with them on it. I think he may have tried to make the best out of a bad situation to possibly blunt the turmoil I'm sure he saw comming.

 

[Astronuc]

Turbo-1, I believe Bush/Cheney misinformed Powell, directed him to suppoort their claim and generally left him out of the loop when they realized he was not sopping up their deception and wasn't in agreement with them on it. I think he may have tried to make the best out of a bad situation to possibly blunt the turmoil I'm sure he saw comming.

Based on what I've read, I do believe Powell was blind-sided. He went to the UN with CIA Director George Tenet. If Powell knew he was providing false or questionable information, he definitely does not deserve a second chance. However, if he was kept in the dark and misled, then he should be considered for a role in the next administration at the discretion of the administration.

 

[LowlyPion]

Hannity's fake news "report" that tried to link Obama to all manner of radicals came under fire for basing the report so heavily on material supplied by an anti-semite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64YpAarzzlQ

I watched the report and thought it worthy of Reni Riefenstahl, more so than as anything that was particularly news worthy. And it was of some relief to see the bald Fox propaganda machine exposed, at least for the record. (Not that it will make a difference to any of their viewers.)

Huffington and Salon both picked up on the story today:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/robert-gibbs-confronts-ha_n_132842.html
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/10/08/fox_news/

 

[LowlyPion]

Based on what I've read, I do believe Powell was blind-sided. He went to the UN with CIA Director George Tenet. If Powell knew he was providing false or questionable information, he definitely does not deserve a second chance. However, if he was kept in the dark and misled, then he should be considered for a role in the next administration at the discretion of the administration.

As I recall Powell was pretty furious, though the good soldier he never expressed it publicly. But I think this is why he left.

 

[LowlyPion]

McCain is appearing in Pennsylvania with Palin as his warm-up dolly.

All they are saying is the same tired stump phrases. Now though they apparently have Republican operatives that yell out "Liar!" from the crowd when McCain says Obama misrepresents.

"Traitor!" the other day in Florida. And the other day someone was caught on tape at a McCain rally saying "Kill him!" The Secret Service was apparently investigating that report.

Editere is the video of the "Kill him" comment 12 seconds in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvXf9AUHTqM

 

[Amp1]

I agree; I think if he wasn't such a class act, he would have given Bush, Cheney, and Rummy a 'what for' and down home 'cussin out on record!

BTW, I was angry for him. As I said, he dignified and mature. He possibly saw if he opened up some it would worsen what I think he may have figured would happen doing what he taught against as the lead General on the JCS. Which was "be well prepared, if not over prepared when charting your course and having a well defined mission.

 

[Gokul43201]

Editere is the video of the "Kill him" comment 12 seconds in.

That sounds like "terrorist", not kill him. But whatever it is, even McCain heard that - check out the expression on his face after the comment.

Here it is:

 

[Coin]

Politics and science briefly overlap...

Last night at the debate John McCain, as part of his endless crusade against the less than 1% of the federal budget taken up by "earmarks", linked Barack Obama to one particularly nasty-sounding budget earmark:

He voted for nearly a billion dollars in pork barrel earmark projects, including, by the way, $3 million for an overhead projector at a planetarium in Chicago, Illinois. My friends, do we need to spend that kind of money?

$3 million for an overhead projector? Wow. Could that be right?

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/8/111343/511/549/623891 From associate professor Andrey Kravtsov at the University of Chicago:

The way Sen. McCain has phrased it suggests that Sen. Obama approved spending $3 million on an old-fashioned piece of office equipment (overhead projector). The 3 million is actually for an upgrade of the http://www.adlerplanetarium.org/exhibits/skytheater.shtml - a full dome projection system, which is probably the main attraction of the Adler Planetarium and is quite sophisticated and impressive piece of equipment.

I find it appalling that Sen. McCain would call a science education tool for public (largely children) for a historic planetarium with millions of visitors a year a wasteful earmark. The planetarium's focus, as stated on their website (http://adlerplanetarium.org) is "on inspiring young people, particularly women and minorities, to pursue careers in science." Is an investment in such public facility at the time when US competitiveness in math and sciences is a constant source of alarm a waste?

Hoping here that this was just a failure to read clearly and not an actual attempt by Sen. McCain to deride what is, according to Wikipedia, the oldest planetarium in the western hemisphere as "a $3 million overhead projector"... :/

 

[Amp1]

Don't forget; McCain doesn't or haven't learned much about PCs, Laptops, tablets, ect. So, he was probably referring to something familiar to him when he went to school.

 

[LowlyPion]

Don't forget; McCain doesn't or haven't learned much about PCs, Laptops, tablets, ect. So, he was probably referring to something familiar to him when he went to school.

You mean those purple ink mimeo transparencies on a light table projector?

 

[Astronuc]

As I recall Powell was pretty furious, though the good soldier he never expressed it publicly. But I think this is why he left.

Well - it was that as well as what was happening in Baghdad after the invasion and beginning of the occupation. Cheney and Rumsfeld were doing their thing behind president Bush's back, and there was conflict with Rice (National Security Advisor) as well. Powell and State Department should have had the lead on the CPA - not the Defense department. NSA, CIA and DOD were not sharing information with Powell at State, and thus he was undermined.

There is also - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Powell#Secretary_of_State

After Saddam Hussein had been deposed, Powell's new role was to once again establish a working international coalition, this time to assist in the rebuilding of post-war Iraq. On September 13, 2004, Powell testified before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee,[20] acknowledging that the sources who provided much of the information in his February 2003 UN presentation were "wrong" and that it was "unlikely" that any stockpiles of WMDs would be found. Claiming that he was unaware that some intelligence officials questioned the information prior to his presentation, Powell pushed for reform in the intelligence community, including the creation of a national intelligence director who would assure that "what one person knew, everyone else knew".

Colin Powell announced his resignation as Secretary of State on Monday, November 15, 2004. According to the Washington Post, he had been asked to resign by the president's chief of staff, Andrew Card.*

*Falling on His Sword
Colin Powell's most significant moment turned out to be his lowest
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/27/AR2006092700106.html

Citing UN Security Council Resolution 1483 (2003), and the laws of war, the CPA vested itself with executive, legislative, and judicial authority over the Iraqi government from the period of the CPA's inception on April 21, 2003, until its dissolution on June 28, 2004.
. . . .
The CPA was created and funded as a division of the United States Department of Defense, and as Administrator, Bremer reported directly to the Secretary of Defense. Although troops from several of the coalition countries were present in Iraq at this time, the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) was the primary military apparatus charged with providing direct combat support to the CPA to enforce its authority during the occupation of Iraq.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_Provisional_Authority#Structure_of_the_CPA

 

[Amp1]

LP:

You mean those purple ink mimeo transparencies on a light table projector?

Yes but he probably can't operate it.

BTW, Astronuc, I don't think Powell fell on his sword so to speak rather its more in the way of honoring his post and trying not to cause undo embarrassment for the US and loss of face in the world arena.

 

[Astronuc]

LP:

Yes but he probably can't operate it.

BTW, Astronuc, I don't think Powell fell on his sword so to speak rather its more in the way of honoring his post and trying not to cause undo embarrassment for the US and loss of face in the world arena.

That wouldn't have been my choice of words. I just copied the title of the article from the Washington Post. For all I know it's somewhat tongue-in-cheek.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

If you're saying Obama will be the greatest president in your life, you are just accepting the fact that future presidents will be worse and just don't care. I don't understand that mentality. I don't know how old you are, but it's like you're just giving up.

I see Obama as a once in a lifetime leader; in any lifetime. But more importantly, he is the right man for this time. When was the last time that you saw 200,000 Germans waiving the American flag?

Keep in mind also that he is trying to get elected in the same country that elected Bush. He has to be a politician, as do they all. And there is no doubt in my mind that if Obama was white, there would have been no race at all. The fundamentals - the economy, etc - would normally demand a change of party; esp given such a talented candidate.

Here is your Zen moment: It is almost as if we had to suffer Bush and the calamity that follows, in order to get Obama.

I think you are scratching for pebbles when a boulder is under your nose. Don't allow discontent to blind you to greatness - or at least the potential for greatness.

I am 50ish. How old are you?