What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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In summary, the key factors for victory in the 2008 Presidential Election were the candidates' ability to connect with voters, the state of the economy and the overall political climate, and the use of effective campaign strategies. Barack Obama's strong message of hope and change resonated with many Americans, while John McCain struggled to distance himself from the unpopular incumbent president, George W. Bush. The economic crisis of 2008 also played a significant role, with many voters looking for a candidate who could offer solutions to the financial struggles facing the country. Additionally, Obama's effective use of social media and grassroots organizing helped him secure a strong base of support and ultimately win the election.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #526
Astronuc said:
Panic attacks: Voters unload at GOP rallies!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081010/pl_politico/14445
These people need psychiatric intervention. I mean really - this is mob psychosis. I have never experienced such hostility from democrats - only republicans.

There's no question in my mind that the alleged "anger" at the Town Hall yesterday in Wisconsin was coming from planted shills delivering soundbites to energize the base. These events are all staged and to presume otherwise when they so tightly control every detail, including the segregation and isolation of the press would seem to miss the mark.
 
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  • #527
LowlyPion said:
There's no question in my mind that the alleged "anger" at the Town Hall yesterday in Wisconsin was coming from planted shills delivering soundbites to energize the base. These events are all staged and to presume otherwise when they so tightly control every detail, including the segregation and isolation of the press would seem to miss the mark.
The fact that a political party goes to those extremes and allows public insults and calls of violence (somebody yelled "Kill him") against a political opponent is very disturbing. This is a rather poor example for democracy.

Given the vitriolic rhetoric, I beginning to wonder if I should expect roving bands of thugs who intimidate members or voters of the other party.
 
  • #528
I find it to be so incredibly laughable to see people sooooo angry. Obama hasn't even been around long enough to earn such contempt. They may not like him, but to hate him with such vitriol says much more about the haters than the hated. Simply put, they are mean and nasty if not dangerous people - the core of the base?

No doubt these the same 28% who still like Bush.

As I said in another thread: I think we are seeing the death of the Republican party as we have known it. The Republicans need to purge themselves of these nutjobs who have dominated the party for almost two decades now. David Brooks called Sarah Palin a cancer to the party. Hopefully it is a lethal cancer. She really does represent the end of a road to nowhere.
 
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  • #529
An odd thing CNN noticed when they had that group of undecided voters in Ohio watching the last Presidential Debate. The majority of the people preferred Obama, liked him better, thought he won the debate, then when asked the question "if you had to vote today, who would you vote for?" the MAJORITY of them said McCain. The CNN guy was floored. He said "but you just said you liked him better and thought he gave better answers, but you won't vote for him".

So I wouldn't get all comfortable about Obama trending better in the polls, the proof will be in the actual votes.
 
  • #530
Evo said:
An odd thing CNN noticed when they had that group of undecided voters in Ohio watching the last Presidential Debate. The majority of the people preferred Obama, liked him better, thought he won the debate, then when asked the question "if you had to vote today, who would you vote for?" the MAJORITY of them said McCain. The CNN guy was floored. He said "but you just said you liked him better and thought he gave better answers, but you won't vote for him".

So I wouldn't get all comfortable about Obama trending better in the polls, the proof will be in the actual votes.

It ain't over till it's over, but don't forget, that was a poll. Also, how could they be undecided if they know who will get their vote?
 
  • #531
Ivan Seeking said:
It ain't over till it's over, but don't forget, that was a poll. Also, how could they be undecided if they know who will get their vote?
Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group. Also, it was a show of hands based on who *now* they would actually vote for.

Who do you approve of more? - Obama
Who do you like better? - Obama
Who won the debate? - Obama
Who are you voting for (if you had to vote right now)? - McCain
 
  • #532
Evo said:
Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group.

So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.
 
  • #533
Ivan Seeking said:
So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.
Same difference, if the majority of the people that claim to be undecided already have decided, it just means that there are not as many real "undecided" voters out there. And if the majority have actually already decided on McCain, it's pretty scary because it's not being reflected in all of these polls everyone is looking at. There was a a good article recently talking about this issue. I wish I could find it.
 
  • #534
Ivan Seeking said:
So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.

Not necessarily the case.

It could be simply because he's black.

And with plenty of fear afoot in the markets an appeal to the fear of what's different may be what they hope to tap in to. They are dead in the water on issues.

It's despicable that they would seek to win in such a way, but look at the video of those at the Palin Rally.
 
  • #536
LowlyPion said:
Not necessarily the case.

It could be simply because he's black.

He was black last week as well. That didn't first come out in the debate.

And with plenty of fear afoot in the markets an appeal to the fear of what's different may be what they hope to tap in to. They are dead in the water on issues.

It's despicable that they would seek to win in such a way, but look at the video of those at the Palin Rally.

Well, it is nothing new.
 
  • #537
Evo said:
Same difference, if the majority of the people that claim to be undecided already have decided, it just means that there are not as many real "undecided" voters out there. And if the majority have actually already decided on McCain, it's pretty scary because it's not being reflected in all of these polls everyone is looking at. There was a a good article recently talking about this issue. I wish I could find it.

I certainly understand your point, but good polls seek to eliminate this sort of uncertainty. It all depends on how the participants were chosen.
 
  • #538
Ivan Seeking said:
He was black last week as well. That didn't first come out in the debate.

True enough, but the appeal to fear, in fearful times may be what they are trying to tap into. Until they cast their vote ... nothing is sure.

McCain is totally without honor. A loathsome hypocrite for all of his talk about running a clean campaign.
 
  • #539
Ivan Seeking said:
I certainly understand your point, but good polls seek to eliminate this sort of uncertainty. It all depends on how the participants were chosen.
It was CNN, I'm sure they're pretty good. And it wasn't a poll, it was a group of voters in a room with CNN where they were discussing the debate.
 
  • #540
Oddly I think if the market recovers some, that will be helpful to Obama.

I think once the sense of freefall is removed the fear to tap into will lessen.
 
  • #541
Evo said:
Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group. Also, it was a show of hands based on who *now* they would actually vote for.

Who do you approve of more? - Obama
Who do you like better? - Obama
Who won the debate? - Obama
Who are you voting for (if you had to vote right now)? - McCain
I'm not sure how one would correct for that uncertainty. Basically one has to assume a fraction of white people are uncomfortable voting for a black person, but likely will not say that openly.

McCain losing ground with working-class whites
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/ap_on_el_pr/working_class_voters

While talk in these parts is mostly about the economy, a prominent — if not unspoken subtext — is race. A study of the impact of racial attitudes on the election conducted by The Associated Press with Yahoo News and Stanford University found that whites without a college education were much more likely to hold negative views of blacks than those with a college education.

I worked for one summer at an oil refinery back in the late 70's. During breaks and at lunch people would separate into groups - black males downstairs, women (mixed) in the middle, and white males upstairs. Both groups of males played dominoes, but they were different games. I think that kind of racial segregation persists. From what I observe, most whites can comfortably work with black colleagues, but are a little uncomfortable working for a black superior - and maybe that's what some see in Obama.
 
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  • #542
Evo said:
It was CNN, I'm sure they're pretty good. And it wasn't a poll, it was a group of voters in a room with CNN where they were discussing the debate.

It was a small poll and a very unscientific one. For example, how many were afraid to admit in public that they would support a black man?

Anyway, we know that there is some percentage of racial bias; it is all a matter of how much, and also how many blacks will vote that normally wouldn't. It will also vary State by State.

There was one Cafferty viewer from Texas who said that he was actually afraid to admit that he's voting for Obama. I've noticed this with people around here as well. Obama supporters tend to fish and try to get a read on my vote before admitting that they will vote for Obama. One guy even looked relieved when I indicated the same.
 
  • #543
Here you go Evo; a reason for you to like Ron Paul: According to the Governer of Montana, Ron Paul could cost McCain the State.
 
  • #544
Ivan Seeking said:
Here you go Evo; a reason for you to like Ron Paul: According to the Governer of Montana, Ron Paul could cost McCain the State.
I did say before that I would approve of him costing the election.
 
  • #545
Missouri
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081010/ts_alt_afp/usvotebattlegroundsmissouri
ST. LOUIS, Missouri (AFP) - With the 2008 presidential election boiling down to a handful of battleground states, the tightest race of all has emerged in Missouri, the most accurate political bellwether state in US history.

The campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain are taking a no-holds-barred approach to the midwestern "Show Me" state, and with good reason; Missourians have voted for the presidential winner in all but one election since 1904.

With such imposing history dictating outsized attention for the state, Republican McCain made two stops in Missouri in late September while Democrat Obama earlier launched a bus tour of the state's Republican stronghold southwest.

Officials from both parties concede the campaigns are pouring resources into the state in a mad dash for Missouri's 11 electoral votes.

The candidates have blitzed the state with political ads, with Obama reportedly spending six million dollars on media advertising and McCain close on his heels with 5.5 million.

Missouri's vote is on a knife edge, and recent major polls have toggled back and forth; Thursday's average of recent polls by independent website Realclearpolitics.com shows McCain at 47.8 percent and Obama at 47.4 in Missouri. The previous day it was Obama 47.8, McCain 47.5.
It will be interesting on election night.
 
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  • #547
Ed Rollins, CNN pundit and Republican campaign consultant and advisor, announced today that this race is over. He said that the only question now is how McCain wants to be remembered.

But don't get me wrong: Get out the vote and vote, vote, vote! The trend lines mean nothing if you don't do what you will...won't have done what you will... :rolleyes:
 
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  • #548
Obama notes McCain's effort to temper GOP comments
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081011/ap_on_el_pr/obama
. . . .
"I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other," Obama told supporters in Philadelphia. He said McCain "has served this country with honor, and he deserves our thanks for that."

. . . he called Obama "a decent, family man."

McCain drew boos at the same event when he told a supporter who expressed fear at the prospect of Obama's election that the Democrat is a "person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States."
I admire McCain for that. It would great if we could more political campaigns away from aggressive attacks and character assassination. It does harm the electorate.
 
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  • #549
This election has become far too emotional...and compounded by the economy. If you haven't noticed...I prefer to over-simplify and make comparisons...anytime you make a big financial decision based upon emotions...the risk of possibility of a favorable outcome increases.
 
  • #550
Astronuc said:
Obama notes McCain's effort to temper GOP comments
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081011/ap_on_el_pr/obama
I admire McCain for that. It would great if we could more political campaigns away from aggressive attacks and character assassination. It does harm the electorate.

Of course his commercials asserting a terrorist connection to Obama, are still running.
 
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  • #551
Did anyone catch what McCain actually said?

The woman asserted that Obama is an Arab. McCain replied, "No, he is a decent man".

I would bet that Arab Americans really loved that one! :smile::smile::smile:

That must be more of that invaluable experience speaking!
 
  • #552
Buckley for Obama!

(CNN) — No, hell has not frozen over, but a Buckley is backing a Democrat for president.

Christopher Buckley, the son of the late conservative icon William F. Buckley, said Friday he's decided to back Barack Obama's White House bid, the first time in his life he will vote Democrat.
...
Buckley, who praised McCain in a New York Times Op-Ed earlier this year and defended the Arizona senator's conservative credentials against wary talk-radio hosts, said McCain is no longer the “real” and “unconventional” man he once admired.

"This campaign has changed John McCain," Buckley wrote. "It has made him inauthentic. A once-first class temperament has become irascible and snarly; his positions change, and lack coherence; he makes unrealistic promises, such as balancing the federal budget 'by the end of my first term.' Who, really, believes that?

"Then there was the self-dramatizing and feckless suspension of his campaign over the financial crisis," Buckley added. "His ninth-inning attack ads are mean-spirited and pointless. And finally, not to belabor it, there was the Palin nomination. What on Earth can he have been thinking?"

But Buckley made clear he's not just voting against McCain, praising Obama for his "first-class temperament and first-class intellect.
...

More here: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/10/a-buckley-endorses-obama/

Looks like some Republicans still prefer merit over mediocrity.
 
  • #553


Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265 
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163  |  364/174    273/265 
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158  |  364/174    273/265

Market Update:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160
 
  • #554
Ivan Seeking said:
The woman asserted that Obama is an Arab. McCain replied, "No, he is a decent man".
I think McCain was making two statements. One saying the Obama was not Arab - thus correcting a misimpression on the part of the woman. And two, quite independently, saying "Look, Obama is a decent man." At least that's how I heard it.

I do think that McCain and others need to explain that just because someone is arab, black, hispanic, asian, . . . , doesn't mean they don't share common values. Political leaders need to help their constituents and supporters get over their racism or their paranoia or phobia of people who are different.
 
  • #555
Political leaders need to help their constituents and supporters get over their racism or their paranoia or phobia of people who are different.
Ya. Suck it up constituents.
 
  • #556
Astronuc said:
I do think that McCain and others need to explain that just because someone is arab, black, hispanic, asian, . . . , doesn't mean they don't share common values. Political leaders need to help their constituents and supporters get over their racism or their paranoia or phobia of people who are different.
That would be the decent thing to do. Somehow, McCain has found precious little time for decency of late. When he asks "Who is Obama?" he knows he going to get nasty radical vitriolic statements from the crowd. It actually seems scripted, as if they have "plants" in the crowd ready to whip up the hatred.

Just an observation - if I were the chief of McCain's SS security detail, I would take him aside and gently remind him that fomenting hatred against another candidate could very easily result in violence, even assassination, and that my fellow SS agents (guarding Obama) are being put in harm's way by his behavior.
 
  • #557
Astronuc said:
I think McCain was making two statements. One saying the Obama was not Arab - thus correcting a misimpression on the part of the woman. And two, quite independently, saying "Look, Obama is a decent man." At least that's how I heard it.

I'm sure he didn't mean it the way it sounded, or maybe he did but didn't realize the implication of what he said, but that is what he said.


I do think that McCain and others need to explain that just because someone is arab, black, hispanic, asian, . . . , doesn't mean they don't share common values. Political leaders need to help their constituents and supporters get over their racism or their paranoia or phobia of people who are different.

It would help even more if McCain didn't run commercials alleging ties to "terrorists". Unlike Sarah and her secessionist husband, Obama hardly knows the guy.
 
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  • #558
Astronuc said:
Political leaders need to help their constituents and supporters get over their racism or their paranoia or phobia of people who are different.

On the other hand if whipping up populist fervor is the only way to activate your base, then the politics of divisiveness is your only tool.
 
  • #559
There were some videos in the Sarah Palin thread, and those lead me to one with an exchange between Bill Maher and Paul Krugman (Princeton Economist).

Bill Maher and Paul Krugman "We Need Better Government", which contains a parody of a commercial about Obama and McCain. :rolleyes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPYyYcelnyw

Krugman makes some good points - and this was back on Sept. 19, before the bail out and well before the stock market downturn, which some don't call a crash.
 

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