What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[LowlyPion]

Obama pulling Jewish vote 3 to 1:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111424/Obama-Winning-Over-Jewish-Vote.aspx

Obama leading among 1st time voters 65 to 30:
http://www.gallup.com/video/111322/Majority-FirstTime-Voters-Plan-Vote-Obama.aspx

80% of voters knew Powell endorsed Obama.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111319/Eight-Voters-Aware-Powell-Endorsement.aspx

 

[LowlyPion]

Funny! Scott McClellan just endorsed Obama.

Here's the story from the LA Times:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/presidentbush/2008/10/mcclellan-obama.html

Countdown to Crawford is the title of the story.

Less than 3 months to go until we have a new President.

 

[mgb_phys]

So the only way for McCain to win now is if Bush endorses Obama?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So the only way for McCain to win now is if Bush endorses Obama?

The flood of Conservatives supporting Obama may have swing with the Inds and liberal Reps, and I would think that McCain's close ties to Libby should cause many McCain supporter to jump ship, but what will strike at the core of the Palin-McCain base will be, Palins $150,000 set of new clothes, her $700 hotel rooms, and expensed trips for her kids. There go the hockey moms. There goes good ole Joe. There go the reformers. Palin is a gimmick.

 

[LowlyPion]

..., but what will strike at the core of the Palin-McCain base will be, Palins $150,000 set of new clothes, her $700 hotel rooms, and expensed trips for her kids. There go the hockey moms. There goes good ole Joe. There go the reformers. Palin is a gimmick.

I doubt that conservatives will be abandoning Palin because of expenses. Heck look at how Jim and Tammy Baker lived, or Jimmy Swaggart or any of their ilk.

Besides putting up a family of 7 is not that cheap in major cities. $700 a night isn't all that bad. Besides the Secret Service likely has security restrictions on where they want candidates to stay meaning major hotels with restricted access and they aren't cheap.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I doubt that conservatives will be abandoning Palin because of expenses. Heck look at how Jim and Tammy Baker lived, or Jimmy Swaggart or any of their ilk.

True... Still, her appeal as "average folk" just went out the window. This seems to undermine the entire premise of her candidacy.

 

[jal]

Why DRILL BABY DRILL

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1853252,00.html?imw=Y
How Cuba's Oil Find Could Change the US Embargo
If Cuba really does have 20 billion bbl. to drill, however, it could more easily find other interested refinery investors, like Brazil. The question is whether the U.S. will want to step off the sidelines and get a piece of the action too. Kirby Jones, head of the U.S.-Cuba Trade Association and an embargo opponent, says Tenreyro's staff has been credible in the past, and he believes the new estimate is probably accurate. "So for the U.S., this becomes an 800-lb. guerrilla knocking on everybody's door," says Jones. "With that much oil, there would be the feeling that there's a real [U.S.] price to be paid for [maintaining] the embargo. It changes Cuba's economic situation drastically and makes the U.S. less relevant."
Perhaps, but in the short run it's more likely to make the U.S. more determined to do its own offshore drilling. Vice President Dick Cheney and other Bush Administration officials point to Cuba's petro fortunes as justification for opening more of America's coastline to oil production. Recent polls in U.S. coastal states like Florida support that idea, despite environmentalist complaints that both U.S. and Cuban offshore rigs will foul the Gulf of Mexico.
------
That sounds more like the truth ... which is being hidden from the citizens.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Nobody is going to drill for oil that costs $65 a barrel, when it sells for as much or less. Drill baby drill is a dead issue as long as the price of petro is this low.

 

[turbo]

Some days back I wondered what kinds of communications are passing back and forth between the McCain campaign and the RNC and what insiders in those organizations are saying, in particular about the defections of high-profile Republicans to Obama. As for the former - apparently the lines of communication between McCain's camp and the RNC are practically non-existent. As for the latter -Politico reports that there is intense infighting and finger-pointing, and resumes are already flying - rats jumping off the sinking ship. The defections are being blamed variously on the VP choice, the horrible Bush record, McCain's inability to offer a steady response to the economic crisis, and his insistence on painting Obama as a friend of terrorists while publicly saying that he has no interst in Ayers.

Also, there is dismay among the down-ticket campaigns and the RNC in general that McCain is not using his resources to try to staunch the expected losses in the House and Senate by firing up some support in key races. The thinking is that if his campaign is in such dire straits, why not at least try to salvage some seats for his party.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14891.html

 

[Astronuc]

Nobody is going to drill for oil that costs $65 a barrel, when it sells for as much or less. Drill baby drill is a dead issue as long as the price of petro is this low.

Oil off Cuba won't cost a lot to develop since it is not deep drilling. If exploration adds to reserves, it will add value.

Cuba would also be a supplier to China, which has an interest. If China develops that area, as well as the China Sea, then it takes pressure off other markets, so that will keep prices down, which is good for consumers, but not good for producers.

 

[jal]

Politico reports that there is intense infighting and finger-pointing, and resumes are already flying - rats jumping off the sinking ship.

That is why McCain could not not attack Bush and had to call himself a maverick.

It does not matter what it cost to Cuba ... they need to oil. They will develop it.
The problem arizes if USA wants to siphon the oil field from their side before Cuba can get their drilling done.
And all the time you got diverted to thinking that DRILL BABY DRILL was aimed somewhere else and that there would not be any personnal gains or ulterior motives by the (R)

 

[Gokul43201]

With early voting in Florida now open, MSNBC is reporting over 750,000 have already voted there. This is roughly 4% of their eligible voters already.

Big turn out => Not good for McCain.

You think that's a big deal? Try this...

2004, GA - 3.2 million votes cast (Bush won by 17%)

Today, GA - 1.0 million early votes cast

And from the latest GA poll (I don't put a lot of weight on a single poll):

(10/24/08) A new InsiderAdvantage / Poll Position survey shows Georgia is a toss-up state in both the U.S. Senate and presidential campaigns.

In the presidential race, Barack Obama has a slight edge over John McCain, although it is within the margin of error. In the U.S. Senate race, Saxby Chambliss has a 2-point edge over Jim Martin, although it, too, is within the margin of error.

Sources:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2004/ga/
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia....er 2008/10-24-08/Insider_Ga_Poll102419643.php
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-pres-ge-mvo.php

 

[Evo]

A lot of these early voters (at least that I know of in the South) are Christian groups that have been going to great lengths to gather voters. So, it might not be a good thing for Obama.

 

[LowlyPion]

A lot of these early voters (at least that I know of in the South) are Christian groups that have been going to great lengths to gather voters. So, it might not be a good thing for Obama.

Than Obama ... the Community Organizer? It may be different this time.

 

[Evo]

I just don't want to count my horses before the ship comes in with the eggs, as the old saying goes.

 

[LowlyPion]

I just don't want to count my horses before the ship comes in with the eggs, as the old saying goes.

The only thing I can do about it for sure is be sure and vote myself.

 

[LowlyPion]

Recall that Michelle Bachmann that was calling for the media to investigate whether members of congress were anti-American last week?

Here is a little blurb I ran across with some of her other statements.

GOP Rep. To Environmentalists: Jesus Already Saved The Planet
By Eric Kleefeld - August 12, 2008, 2:00PM

We like to keep track of the, er, intriguing sayings of Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, the Christian Right champion from Minnesota. But this latest is really out there -- Bachmann says we don't need pesky environmentalists like Nancy Pelosi around, because Jesus already saved the planet!

"[Pelosi] is committed to her global warming fanaticism to the point where she has said that she's just trying to save the planet," Bachmann told the right-wing news site OneNewsNow. "We all know that someone did that over 2,000 years ago, they saved the planet -- we didn't need Nancy Pelosi to do that."

Wow.

Other recent Bachmannisms include the claim that there isn't actually any wildlife in the areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge where she wants more drilling, and the allegation that Democrats want high gas prices so as to force people to move into "inner cities" and "the urban core."

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/gop_rep_to_environmentalists_j.php

There is also a video from Uptake.org of Bachmann.
I'm excerpting from the transcript where she says:

And that's what I had mentioned in my previous response is that America is a great nation, with great values. We are equal opportunity for all. And it's because we all came here and we came together as one. Out of many one. Multi-cultural diversity says out of one many. And if we go with tribalism we will not long be one nation united under God.

http://www.theuptake.org/
(Requires registration)

 

[Evo]

McCain gets newspaper endorsement.

McCook (Neb.) Daily Gazette endorsed McCain on Thursday:

"Obama is leading in the polls, and his personal confidence and charisma is appealing.

"But the majority of southwest Nebraskans and northwest Kansans don't want to see the country shift to the left, the direction Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, would take it, especially as it relates to the Supreme Court.

"For that reason, the McCook Daily Gazette is endorsing Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin for president and vice president."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081024/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_endorsements_6;_ylt=AlwAzsjcaywD5v_19clEyvBh24cA

Where is McCook, Nebraska you ask?

McCook is located at 40°12′19″N, 100°37′34″W (40.205228, -100.626174).[4]

According to the United States Census Bureau, the city has a total area of 5.4 square miles (13.9 km²), all of it land.

The entire town has a single zip code

 

[LowlyPion]

Out of many one. Multi-cultural diversity says out of one many. And if we go with tribalism we will not long be one nation united under God.

Isn't the real issue that the United States is one nation under Law? One country of many people from many countries drawn together here over the proposition that all men are created equal and endowed with the inalienable rights to life liberty and the pursuit of happiness? Just where did these people ever learn their civics and history of the country they are a part of? Where is it said that the e pluribus unum refers to cultural and religious values as opposed to human rights?

This is apparently the same fundamental misconception and ignorance that I think Palin suffers from in her odd notions of redefining the role of Vice President to be Queen of the Senate with any power to make policy in any way unless there is some unlikely deadlock.

 

[LowlyPion]

McCain gets newspaper endorsement.

Where is McCook, Nebraska you ask?

I guess then that it will be these islands of "real America" that will have to stand against the onslaught of the un-American urban centers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So the only way for McCain to win now is if Bush endorses Obama?

Whewwwwww, Bush voted for McCain today.

 

[phoenixy]

race baiting alert

Ashley Todd, the McCain volunteer who said she was assaulted in Pittsburgh Wednesday by an attacker who scratched a "B" in her cheek after learning that she was for McCain,

Spoiler

made the story up, police say.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/report_mccain_volunteer_who_cl.php

I don't watch TV so I don't know how the media handles the incident thus far, but here is what the Fox news VP said before the confession took place.

http://mediamatters.org/items/200810240007

If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator [Barack] Obama, not because they are racists ... but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee." That assertion was followed by another baseless claim: "If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator [John] McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting

 

[LowlyPion]

Moderate Republicans are fleeing the sinking ship.

Republican former Mass. governor endorses Obama
By Holly Ramer
Associated Press Writer / October 24, 2008

CONCORD, N.H.—Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, a Republican, endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president on Friday, citing the senator's good judgment, "deep sense of calm" and "first-class political temperament."

Weld said he's never endorsed a Democrat for president before, but in the last six weeks or so, it became "close to a no-brainer." Obama has a history of bringing Democrats, Republicans and independents together and is the best choice at a time when America's standing in the world is at a low point, he said.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2008/10/24/former_mass_gov_william_weld_to_endorse_obama/

 

[LowlyPion]

I don't watch TV so I don't know how the media handles the incident thus far, but here is what the Fox news VP said before the confession took place.

It was prominent of Fox and Friends this morning before it was found to be a hoax.

Now MSNBC has been reporting that her lie detector and the ATM surveillance cameras didn't back up her story and she confessed.

Plus the B was written backwards on her face like in a mirror.

 

[Evo]

Yes, she admitted that she lied. Police say she will face charges now.

 

[Astronuc]

It was prominent of Fox and Friends this morning before it was found to be a hoax.

Why am I not surprised.

Now MSNBC has been reporting that her lie detector and the ATM surveillance cameras didn't back up her story and she confessed.

Plus the B was written backwards on her face like in a mirror.

I caught this news item this afternoon. It was the 'backward B' that prompted skepticism among police, and other inconsistencies.

Police: McCain volunteer made up robbery story
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081024/ap_on_re_us/attack_mccain_sticker

Police suspected all along that Todd might not be telling the truth, starting with the fact that the "B" was backward, Bryant said.

"We have robbers here in Pittsburgh, but they don't generally mutilate someone's face like that," Bryant said. "They just take the money and run."

I can't see how the race can be tight at this point.

 

[turbo]

I just don't want to count my horses before the ship comes in with the eggs, as the old saying goes.

In the middle of the stream?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ron Howard's call to action.
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/cc65ed650d

Heh...

 

[turbo]

I just don't want to count my horses before the ship comes in with the eggs, as the old saying goes.

Seriously, you have a right to be concerned and cautious. The GOP has assembled caging lists and will challenge as many voter as possible in Democratic-leaning areas, slowing lines and thereby denying many the right to vote. Those who make their way through the slowed-down lines and are challenged will find themselves either unable to vote or able to cast only a provisional ballot that may or may not get counted. There are reports from Nevada that GOP-hired private get-out-the-vote campaigns are destroying Democratic registrations and/or are leading people to believe that by renewing their driver's license or some other public function, they just got registered to vote. Come election day... Surprise!

I know Obama's got a good ground-game, but he is going to need phalanxes of Democratic lawyers protecting the rights of voters on election day. When the polls are descended upon by GOP "observers" trained to disrupt the election, those nice silver-haired ladies manning the registrars' lists are going to need someone to back them up and to ensure that they are not bullied into disenfranchising eligible voters.

 

[Evo]

Fried was an active member of John McCain's campaign as recently as last month, serving on a pair of campaign advisory committees.

Charles Fried supports Obama

It's the Weld endorsement that's making news, but there's been another notable defection by a Massachusetts conservative: Charles Fried, a former Solicitor General under Ronald Reagan and one of Harvard Law School's most respected conservatives, says he's already voted for Obama via absentee ballot.

Fried is a conservative of a rather libertarian bent, who, despite his work for Reagan in support of that administration's anti-abortion policies, now defends Roe v. Wade.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/brainiac/2008/10/charles_fried_s.html

 

[LowlyPion]

It was the 'backward B' that prompted skepticism among police, and other inconsistencies.

I was wondering if there was just no way the B didn't stand for something else?

 

[LowlyPion]

Fried was an active member of John McCain's campaign as recently as last month, serving on a pair of campaign advisory committees.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/brainiac/2008/10/charles_fried_s.html

Will there be enough room on the Ark?

 

[Astronuc]

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a phalanx of Republican lawyers reading to defend voting rights. I think more than a few Republicans are now fed up with the far right and they want to take their party back.

I wonder if Christie Todd Whitman will endorse Obama?

 

[Evo]

Will there be enough room on the Ark?

Will be there anyone of any merit left in the Republican party?

 

[turbo]

I was wondering if there was just no way the B didn't stand for something else?

Since all of Obama's campaign materials seem to feature his last name and/or just an "O" in many cases, she could have saved herself a lot of embarrassment by scratching an "O" in her face. Instead, that mirror-image "B" helped trip her up.

It was a big black man, I swear... Anybody watch "To Kill a Mockingbird" lately?