8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[nismaratwork]

U.S. Calls Radiation 'Extremely High,' Sees Japan Nuclear Crisis Worsening
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html
By DAVID E. SANGER, MATTHEW L. WALD and HIROKO TABUCHI
The chairman of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave a bleaker appraisal of the threat, but Japanese officials played down the concerns.

NYTimes Quote of the Day (It's a really big deal - an operator is not supposed to allow the situation to get so out of hand that the local activity would affect the people attempting to deal with the emergency)
"We believe that radiation levels are extremely high, which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures."
GREGORY JACZKO, chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on the crisis at a Japanese nuclear power plant.

Flaws in Japan's Leadership Deepen Sense of Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17tokyo.html
By HIROKO TABUCHI, KEN BELSON and NORIMITSU ONISHI
Never has Japan's weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed or mattered so much.

I wonder about the rudderless government (as it pertains to the lack of fiscal responsibility or the lack of determination to assist pro-democracy rebells in Libya, etc) in the US.

We're all ****less wonders? That's my take on it...

 

[WhoWee]

Watching these efforts to carry water and pump from trucks makes me wonder why they couldn't couple a few hundred feet of oil pipe together - to be attached to fire hose - and drug into position by the helicopter - maybe weigh-down the end to keep in position over pool. This would allow a continuous supply of water pumped from the bay.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I’m very glad the skipper’s friend knows how to correct failures in english...

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

 

[FlexGunship]

Maybe, but only because of irrational hysteria. This situation isn't good, but even assuming (reasonably) worst case scenario here, putting things in any kind of perspective at all shows nuclear power to be far safer than any alternative.

Nuclear power is a lot like airplanes in that regard: absolutely safer than the alternatives, but any disaster involving one seems to be emotionally multiplied by a million.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

The earthquake swarm continues. Notice the more recent quakes occurring nearer to Tokyo and along the western coast and just west of Tokyo. There have been several 6+ mag quakes.

Can they expect another big one - 7 or 8+ soon?

On top of everything else - this could be a very 'stressful' factor... I was listening to this man on the radio (sorry no way to attach link or translation):

[URL]http://www.geofys.uu.se/rb/reynir.JPG[/URL]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynir_B%C3%B6dvarsson"
Seismologist
Uppsala University in Sweden

And he said that there has been ONE earthquake near Tokyo (I think it was ~M6?) that does NOT "belong" to the "other" quakes – i.e. the movement vector is along another tectonic plate.

There are SPECULATIONS if this could be the start of foreshocks before THE BIG ONE in the Tokyo area (that is 'calculated' to come sooner than later).

The experts DON’T KNOW if the M8.9 released stress in the Tokyo area (meaning; later and lower quakes), or if MORE STRESS was built up...

[PLAIN]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b1/Japan_separation.png

[URL]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7c/Okhotsk_Plate_map_-_de.png/400px-Okhotsk_Plate_map_-_de.png[/URL]

[URL]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Plates_tect2_en.svg/700px-Plates_tect2_en.svg.png[/URL]

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Nuclear power is a lot like airplanes in that regard: absolutely safer than the alternatives, but any disaster involving one seems to be emotionally multiplied by a million.

Especially if you are sitting in the plane.

 

[Astronuc]

Nuclear power is a lot like airplanes in that regard: absolutely safer than the alternatives, but any disaster involving one seems to be emotionally multiplied by a million.

Especially if you are sitting in the plane.

Yes, the consequences are different if one is directly affected. If one is on the plane that crashes, or one's family member or friend is lost, then I would imagine one would be quite emotional.

Faith in the safety nuclear power plants or aircraft is only as good as the practices. As long as there are not accidents, then there is confidence. An accident challenges that confidence, according to the severity. The performance is only as good as the training and dedication of those operating the plants or flying the aircraft.

 

[alt]

Yes, and I wouldn't call it hysteria. While there is certainly some of that, every argument made in favor of nuclear power for the last twenty years will serve as evidence that the nuclear industry cannot be trusted. We were told the reactors were safe when they were built. We were told that new reactors are much safer now - you know, new and improved? Which means you were selling us the old crappy stuff the first time and still operating it? We couldn't trust you before but we can now?

What really sinks this for me is the cause of the failure. It is EXACTLY the sort of lame oversight that I have talked about in the past - the reason I don't trust any form of heavy or light industry. I have seen it too many times at too many levels. Nothing about the engineering can be trusted when industry can be so incredibly blind to the weakest link.

When we allow cost to compromise public safety or common sense, this is what we get. Those generators should have been tsunami proof, not tsunami resistant. This was caused by approximately the same mistake that sank the Titanic - the lame assumption was made that the water would never go over the wall. It was a pedestrian oversight. It was completely preventable. It wasn't a matter of failed nuclear engineering, this isn't rocket science, just as we saw in the Gulf last summer, it was a matter of failed responsibility. It is an unforgivable oversight and I seriously doubt the public trust can be recaptured. The spin masters will make mince meat of the pro-nuclear position, and at this point I have to agree with them.

I know that good people with good intentions build these systems to the highest standards. I understand that it is not a betrayal of good faith. I also know that we need nuclear power. But it is true at every level of industry that the almighty bottom line challenges reason and responsibility. What caused this disaster was the need to save a few bucks, nothing more. And for that, all of the grandiose statistics and calculations go right down the toilet. What people will remember are exploding nuclear power plants. Do I want that in my backyard? Hell no!

Public perception is I think a lost cause. It will be another thirty years before the public starts to buy into this again, and by then we may no longer need it.

I know that good people with good intentions build these systems to the highest standards. I understand that it is not a betrayal of good faith.

Maybe there was betrayal of good faith. I'm sure I heard on the news this morning, that Japanese nuclear power executives have FUDGED reports on safety inspection and related issues - for years. I'll try to find something more on this.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... I'm sure I heard on the news this morning, that Japanese nuclear power executives have FUDGED reports on safety inspection and related issues - for years. I'll try to find something more on this.

TEPCO has been involved in safety scandals:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Electric_Power_Company#Scandal

Scandal

On August 29, 2002, the government of Japan revealed that TEPCO was guilty of false reporting in routine governmental inspection of its nuclear plants and systematic concealment of plant safety incidents. All seventeen of its boiling-water reactors were shut down for inspection as a result. TEPCO's chairman Hiroshi Araki, President Nobuya Minami, Vice-President Toshiaki Enomoto, as well as the advisers Shō Nasu and Gaishi Hiraiwa stept by September 30, 2002.[3], and the utility "eventually admitted to two hundred occasions over more than two decades between 1977 and 2002, involving the submission of false technical data to authorities".[4] Upon taking over leadership responsibilities, TEPCO's new president issued a public commitment that the company would take all the countermeasures necessary to prevent fraud and restore the nation's confidence. By the end of 2005, generation at suspended plants had been restarted, with government approval.

In 2007, however, the company announced to the public that an internal investigation had revealed a large number of unreported incidents. These included an unexpected unit criticality in 1978 and additional systematic false reporting, which hadn't been uncovered during the 2002 inquiry. Along with scandals at other Japanese electric companies, this failure to ensure corporate compliance resulted in strong public criticism of Japan's electric power industry and the nation's nuclear energy policy. Again the company made no effort to identify those responsible.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

From a military friend's wife I know outside of Tokyo

As of today, the President of the US has authorized a military assisted VOLUNTARY departure of dependents from Japan.

In the next 24 hours, there will be Air Force cargo passenger planes landing here on Atsugi, first taking women & children (possibly to Korea) for 1-2 days then another transfer to a new destination which is not yet known. Pacific Air Force planes will fly into Narita, Yokota & Atsugi - trying to do 10,000 people per day through the 3 sites. The next step would be bringing civilian airliners into these spaces (United, American, etc.) to move out more people.

We've been advised to go ahead and pack a suitcase for 3-5 days, get our passports, any thing that we'll need like diapers, baby food, etc. & plan to be gone for a few days.

This is NOT an emergency, it's a precautionary measure only. They hope to start the evacuations in the next 24 hours.

 

[nismaratwork]

Hmmmm... I'm not sure what to make of that...

 

[rhody]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html?emc=eta1"

From the NY Times piece above, simply stated, this is the undepinning reason things are rapidly spinning out of control, with potentially dire consequences for Japan and the world.

“Everything in their system is built to build consensus slowly,” said one American official who would not be quoted by name because of the delicacy of discussions with Japan. “And everything in this crisis is about moving quickly. It’s not working.”

Rhody...

 

[nismaratwork]

I think Jim Walsh put it well... you have Reactor 4 with the fuel rod pool creating a dangerous radiation field that makes it tough or impossible to service reactor 3... and you can see the domino effect inherent in that.

Truly this is heroic work... and even more people have gone to the plant.

On a different note, I can't watch the news coverage any more... too many grandparents crying for their children and grandchildren. I've never seen such frank misery and despair in Japan.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

From the NY Times piece above, simply stated, this is the undepinning reason things are rapidly spinning out of control, with potentially dire consequences for Japan and the world.

Not good

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Yes, the consequences are different if one is directly affected. If one is on the plane that crashes, or one's family member or friend is lost, then I would imagine one would be quite emotional.

I was once ready to die inside a small 10 seat turboprop aircraft.

We were flying to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_de_Noronha" , 350 km offshore from the northern Brazilian coast (Natal), when we were hit by a tropical thunderstorm, halfway out over the Atlantic.

The aircraft was so small that we could see the thunderstorm on the radar in the cockpit. It looked like a yellow/red "cancer tumor" slowly approaching. When we entered the storm the whole plane jumped heavily up & down, so hard that we had to fasten the seatbelts to stay in place.

After a short moment huge hail bombarded the plane and it sounded like someone was firing a machine gun at us.

At this point I was very close to do No. 2 in my pants...

More and heavier jumping + hail + unbelievable strong rain + thunder & lightning = complete chaos.

Then something strange happened – I became perfectly calm! I knew that there was absolutely not one thing on this planet that I could do to change the situation, and I was not afraid at all...

I know it sounds completely crazy, but it’s the truth.

We finally made it to the island and landed (surfed) in 10+ cm water on the airfield.

Then my legs started to shake, and it was high time for some Brazilian 54% abv Caninha...


(Sorry for going off-topic)

 

[malty]

It seems some Japanese weren't too happy with the standard of journalism and reporting (who'd blame them?) so they've started a journalist http://jpquake.wikispaces.com/Journalist+Wall+of+Shame" . Singling out newspapers and media outlets that have used Japan's misery as a means of selling their product.

This Wall of Shame is being assembled by various people, many of whom are on the ground in Japan as residents, not temporarily assigned journalists, who are sick of the sensationalist, overly speculative, and just plain bad reporting that has gone on since the Tohoku quake in Japan last Friday (March 11). We feel that contacting each and every publication and reporter every time a bad report shows up is not effective, and it is our sincere hope that this will encourage journalists to aspire to a higher (some would say minimal) level of responsibility in their reports. If you would like to add a report of your own, feel free.

Gotta say some of the errors and attempts of fear mongering listed are atrocious.

 

[BobG]

Watching these efforts to carry water and pump from trucks makes me wonder why they couldn't couple a few hundred feet of oil pipe together - to be attached to fire hose - and drug into position by the helicopter - maybe weigh-down the end to keep in position over pool. This would allow a continuous supply of water pumped from the bay.

Well, the trucks didn't work so well. Because of the radiation, they couldn't get close enough for the spray to reach, although that's disputed by TEPCO, which says the spraying was somewhat effective.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42124500/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

A new power line providing full power is about 1.5 km short of completion, but just getting the power line to the nuclear facility won't automatically solve the problem. Given the info that's come out about the crisis so far, any hedging seems like a guarantee of failure. There's a good chance that the damage from the tsunami and the explosions so far will make restoration of power a moot point.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/17/sot.nhk.nuclear.explainer.nhk

Somehow, the toy vehicles just make that briefing seem pathetically comical.

 

[IMP]

Here is an interesting timelapse of the quake and the aftershocks:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42037498/ns/world_news-asia-pacific/

 

[Proton Soup]

Yes, the consequences are different if one is directly affected. If one is on the plane that crashes, or one's family member or friend is lost, then I would imagine one would be quite emotional.

Faith in the safety nuclear power plants or aircraft is only as good as the practices. As long as there are not accidents, then there is confidence. An accident challenges that confidence, according to the severity. The performance is only as good as the training and dedication of those operating the plants or flying the aircraft.

one normally expects the japanese to do everything by the book. so, I'm curious as to whether you think the plant operators have have succeeded on that metric, and also whether they may have been hindered by a lack of ability to improvise when the situation becomes SNAFU'd.

 

[Astronuc]

one normally expects the japanese to do everything by the book. so, I'm curious as to whether you think the plant operators have have succeeded on that metric, and also whether they may have been hindered by a lack of ability to improvise when the situation becomes SNAFU'd.

As far as I know, the book doesn't cover the situation after they lose EDGs and emergency power supply. Now they are outside of their emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and more or less flying by the seat of their pants.

I doubt they even did a drill or training simulation in which they lost EDGs and backup, on three or four units, let alone one - and failed to restore offsite in a timely manner.

That's one of the lessons learned - the hard way.

The next time . . . . - well there better not be a next time!

 

[BobG]

As far as I know, the book doesn't cover the situation after they lose EDGs and emergency power supply. Now they are outside of their emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and more or less flying by the seat of their pants.

That's becoming pretty obvious. Yet, TEPCO is pretty persistent that they're capable of handling this problem themselves - to the point they're not even willing to share much info on what's actually happening at the facility.

One thing that's bothered me is that they can't run their normal cooling system because of lack of power for their pumps, but they were able to pump in seawater?

Or is it that they don't have the power necessary to run the condensers to cool the water in the closed system, so have to find water from an open system to cool the system indirectly (externally instead of internally), which is a lot less effective.

Or is the seawater a passive system that can only be used for a short term problem (since there's no way to pump the water back out to the sea)?

After a week, they still haven't provided enough information to even know what they've actually done.

 

[Astronuc]

That's becoming pretty obvious. Yet, TEPCO is pretty persistent that they're capable of handling this problem themselves - to the point they're not even willing to share much info on what's actually happening at the facility.

One thing that's bothered me is that they can't run their normal cooling system because of lack of power for their pumps, but they were able to pump in seawater?

Or is it that they don't have the power necessary to run the condensers to cool the water in the closed system, so have to find water from an open system to cool the system indirectly (externally instead of internally), which is a lot less effective.

Or is the seawater a passive system that can only be used for a short term problem (since there's no way to pump the water back out to the sea)?

After a week, they still haven't provided enough information to even know what they've actually done.

The problem is lack of information.

I expect the seawater pumps are small and are being run by portable power generators that were brought in. I heard 'fire hoses' mentioned, but I don't understand the context. I don't really know where the seawater is being introduced, or at what rate.

The physics is just about match flow rate with heat generation rate - matching them so the water in the core doesn't get too hot.

I don't know how open the primary system is - in other words, besides the steam coming off - is there water 'leaving' containment? Is it going into the ocean?

There is a mass balance (a la continuity equation). If Δm or dm/dt in the system = 0, if dm (water)/dt = dm (steam), then there's no net gain/loss of water in the system, and steam is coming out with activity. If dm (seawater)/dt > dm (steam), but Δm = 0 in the primary system/containment, where is the water going? The ocean?

Has the inflow of water to the cores in the RPV been sufficient to cool the fuel? Has the water inflow into containment been sufficient?

The what about the spent fuel pools - particularly the one in Unit 4?

 

[OmCheeto]

Here is an interesting timelapse of the quake and the aftershocks:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42037498/ns/world_news-asia-pacific/

Thank you IMP. I was looking for that.

I just tried to explain what was going on in the video to a couple of people. One ran away, the other person changed the subject, and mentioned that he took two terms of geology, and kind of understood how certain rocks were formed.

The scale of plate tectonics compared to a single meat puppet is a bit daunting I suppose.

 

[Lancelot59]

The scale of plate tectonics compared to a single meat puppet is a bit daunting I suppose.

It's a big ol' world out there. Or under there as the case may be.

What really gets at me is some of the jokes people are making about this.

For instance, one person claims that it's a scam because everything looks fine on google streetview. I think that was meant as an ironic joke.
I also heard some people saying that the earthquake was karma getting a japan for the attack at pearl harbour. Which makes no sense.

I guess some people find it amusing.

 

[lisab]

It's a big ol' world out there. Or under there as the case may be.

What really gets at me is some of the jokes people are making about this.

For instance, one person claims that it's a scam because everything looks fine on google streetview. I think that was meant as an ironic joke.
I also heard some people saying that the earthquake was karma getting a japan for the attack at pearl harbour. Which makes no sense.

I guess some people find it amusing.

Thankfully those who hold such opinions are in the extreme minority, extrapolating from the circle of people I associate with. Such attitudes sicken me.

 

[jhae2.718]

I also heard some people saying that the earthquake was karma getting a japan for the attack at pearl harbour. Which makes no sense.

Wait, what??!

 

[OmCheeto]

What really gets at me is some of the jokes people are making about this.

For instance, one person claims that it's a scam because everything looks fine on google streetview. I think that was meant as an ironic joke.
I also heard some people saying that the earthquake was karma getting a japan for the attack at pearl harbour. Which makes no sense.

I guess some people find it amusing.

People have strange ways of relieving stress. One way is to cry, the other way is to laugh.

I think there are about 300 people of Japanese ethnicity where I work. (There are around 15,000 total). For the last few days, I've noticed the Japanese people a bit more than usual.

For some reason, I just want to go up and hug them. But I'm sure they would feel uncomfortable, so I don't.

I would hope though, that, they remember that we all, or at least I do, get by:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wG6Cgmgn5U

 

[Lancelot59]

Thankfully those who hold such opinions are in the extreme minority, extrapolating from the circle of people I associate with. Such attitudes sicken me.

Same here. It's funny in the same say a dead baby joke is funny.

Wait, what??!

Yeah, I know. The reason the logic falls through is because Pearl Harbour was a military installation, and the US destroyed two major cities with a vast civilian population using nuclear devices.

Moving on though, how are they flying supplies in? The main airport if I remember correctly was built on a man made island.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wow, that was fast!

Asked whether he would stop Israel's civilian nuclear program, Netanyahu replied, "I don't think we're going to pursue civil nuclear energy in the coming years. We'll go for the gas; I think we'll skip the nuclear."...

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000631232&fid=1725
http://piersmorgan.blogs.cnn.com/20...e-to-reconsider-nuclear-power/?iref=allsearch

 

[edward]

Same here. It's funny in the same say a dead baby joke is funny.

Yeah, I know. The reason the logic falls through is because Pearl Harbour was a military installation, and the US destroyed two major cities with a vast civilian population using nuclear devices.

Moving on though, how are they flying supplies in? The main airport if I remember correctly was built on a man made island.

Most Japanese airports are now open.

http://www.aeroclix.com/2011/03/16/most-of-japan%E2%80%99s-airports-reopen-after-9-0-earthquake/

Immediately after the quake, inbound commercial planes were allowed to land at a U. S. Air Force Base.

 

[WhoWee]

The problem is lack of information.

I expect the seawater pumps are small and are being run by portable power generators that were brought in. I heard 'fire hoses' mentioned, but I don't understand the context. I don't really know where the seawater is being introduced, or at what rate.

The physics is just about match flow rate with heat generation rate - matching them so the water in the core doesn't get too hot.

I don't know how open the primary system is - in other words, besides the steam coming off - is there water 'leaving' containment? Is it going into the ocean?

There is a mass balance (a la continuity equation). If Δm or dm/dt in the system = 0, if dm (water)/dt = dm (steam), then there's no net gain/loss of water in the system, and steam is coming out with activity. If dm (seawater)/dt > dm (steam), but Δm = 0 in the primary system/containment, where is the water going? The ocean?

Has the inflow of water to the cores in the RPV been sufficient to cool the fuel? Has the water inflow into containment been sufficient?

The what about the spent fuel pools - particularly the one in Unit 4?

In the absence of a working heat exchange system, what other (cooling) option is there except a constant water replacement capability?

 

[BobG]

A good article on why plan B so often fails to work - not just in the case of Fukushima's nuclear facility, but in so many other areas, as well.

http://redtape.msnbc.com/2011/03/why-plan-b-often-works-out-badly.html

This part is particularly true:

One terrible irony of risk management is the better you do, the more your techniques will come under attack, Kabay said. The longer we go without a dangerous nuclear event, the more safety engineers are accused of overspending.

"The better precautionary measures do, the less effective they appear,” Kabay said. “...There is an exceptional psychological tendency to narrow your functional view and forget the earlier conditions we have improved.” That's why funding for preventative measures against major disasters tend to vacillate over a half-generation. The recent memory of a bridge collapse leads to tougher civil engineering laws; a distant memory leads to accusations of overkill and overbuilding. "Many people start thinking ‘we're wasting money here, we've been wasting all this money on backup systems we never need.’"

This is true whether you're talking about engineering systems or government regulation of businesses. The more effective you are at preventing disasters, the more likely people are to claim the measures you took are just wasteful bureaucracy getting in the way of cost efficient operation. The only way to know whether the extra safety built into a system is worth the money or not is to not implement the extra safety measures and find out what happens.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Astro; I was listening to the radio and a chat with http://www.chalmers.se/sv/forskning/professorer-sedan-1992/beskrivningar/Sidor/lembit-sihver-karnkemi.aspx" , Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering, he came back from Japan on Monday, he visited Fukushima I earlier.

One guy was asking this very good question (without getting a clear answer):

Why doesn’t the rescue team take a bunch of fire hoses and connect and extend them far enough to put fire trucks on safe distance, pumping water in the spent fuel ponds... using a helicopter to get it in right position?​

 

[DevilsAvocado]

OmCheeto: That looks 'dangerous'...

 

[nismaratwork]

The problem is lack of information.

I expect the seawater pumps are small and are being run by portable power generators that were brought in. I heard 'fire hoses' mentioned, but I don't understand the context. I don't really know where the seawater is being introduced, or at what rate.

Visuals of helo's dropping water seems... very weak. The water is nearly a dispersed fog before it lands. A water cannon, as opposed to just a hose might have been a thought to get water from a distance. I'm guessing the radiaton field is too intense and wide around 4 now to do that.

Supposedly, they'll be trying to fire up pumps in #2 with a newly installed line. I don't see this going well, and I doubt that people being fried by gamma radiation (assuming they never leave their suits), sleep deprived, and emotionally fragile are going to be able to make the proper calculations, given the issues with 4.

The physics is just about match flow rate with heat generation rate - matching them so the water in the core doesn't get too hot.

I don't know how open the primary system is - in other words, besides the steam coming off - is there water 'leaving' containment? Is it going into the ocean?

From what I understand, it's literally boiling out, so it's eventually ending in the ocean or land, but not a drect leak back out... except possibly in the pool of #4.

There is a mass balance (a la continuity equation). If Δm or dm/dt in the system = 0, if dm (water)/dt = dm (steam), then there's no net gain/loss of water in the system, and steam is coming out with activity. If dm (seawater)/dt > dm (steam), but Δm = 0 in the primary system/containment, where is the water going? The ocean?

Has the inflow of water to the cores in the RPV been sufficient to cool the fuel? Has the water inflow into containment been sufficient?

The what about the spent fuel pools - particularly the one in Unit 4?

It's too bad they'd just removed those rods from active duty to the pool in 4 days earlier... that is some HORRIBLE luck.