8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[Lacy33]

Hi Astro,
So we are wondering here really, is it possible that it will be a Chernobyl type situation or as my husband thinks and hopes they build these plants differently now.
I think I understand him to say that. He worked on building one.
What I am asking specifically is it possible that we could have an event that big again?
And are any professionals going there to help keep Japan it safe?
And Astro why are you not over there now helping? Thank you

 

[nismaratwork]

There are conflicting reports:

Explosion did not occur at reactor: Japan spokesman
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110312p2g00m0dm073000c.html

vs

Explosion Destroys Walls of Japanese Nuclear Reactor Building, NHK Reports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/explosion-destroys-walls-of-japan-reactor-building-nhk-reports.html


http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Battle_to_stabilise_earthquake_reactors_1203111.html

It is certainly a very serious, even grave, situation. However, it is difficult, even impossible to give a reliable assessment based on the sketchy information available.

It really does sound like it was a hydrogen explosion... the images show smoke rising, but mostly dirty steam. I'm... unclear that this is anything as serious as an exposed or melting core. Chan Dallas is reporting, "620 mREMS/Hour", which I certainly don't want a part of, but it's hardly going to make you... poop... the bed.

I'm buying 'hydrogen blast' without the fuel becoming exposed.

 

[nismaratwork]

Oh, and 9,500 missing in Miyagi prefecture alone (CNN)

 

[Astronuc]

Hi Astro,
So we are wondering here really, is it possible that it will be a Chernobyl type situation or as my husband thinks and hopes they build these plants differently now.
I think I understand him to say that. He worked on building one.
What I am asking specifically is it possible that we could have an event that big again?
And are any professionals going there to help keep Japan it safe?
And Astro why are you not over there now helping? Thank you

I don't see this being the same as Chernobyl, but there is a concern that if the cladding oxidizes/corrodes that fisson products would be released into the coolant. Fissions gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, and volatiles like I, could be released into the atmosphere, but one would expect, the Iodine would be trapped in filters. Other soluble nuclides would be in the cooling water.

Japan has a large population of professionals, and the USNRC and other organizations are ready to step in and provide support and assistance.

There will be repercussions due to the poor performance, really failure, of the safety systems. I imagine that unit 1 at FK Daiichi will be permanently shutdown, especially if they use seawater directly in the core.

The industry will do yet another reassessment of the preparedness for such an event.

I would certainly go if asked. I would like to be there in person to see what is actually going on, but I'd be in the way. They need personnel with direct plant operating experience with that particular plant design.

 

[nismaratwork]

I don't see this being the same as Chernobyl, but there is a concern that if the cladding oxidizes/corrodes that fisson products would be released into the coolant. Fissions gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, and volatiles like I, could be released into the atmosphere, but one would expect, the Iodine would be trapped in filters. Other soluble nuclides would be in the cooling water.

Japan has a large population of professionals, and the USNRC and other organizations are ready to step in and provide support and assistance.

There will be repercussions due to the poor performance, really failure, of the safety systems. I imagine that unit 1 at FK Daiichi will be permanently shutdown, especially if they use seawater directly in the core.

The industry will do yet another reassessment of the preparedness for such an event.

I would certainly go if asked. I would like to be there in person to see what is actually going on, but I'd be in the way. They need personnel with direct plant operating experience with that particular plant design.

Do you think there's any way to turn this event into a drive to actually BUILD newer generation reactors, replacing older models, rather than the usual anti-nuclear hysteria?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

It is certainly a very serious, even grave, situation. However, it is difficult, even impossible to give a reliable assessment based on the sketchy information available.

Thanks Astronuc. Yes, it seems hard to get coherent and reliable info. The question is why?

Of course it’s a very 'confusing' situation with quakes and tsunamis, but personally I don’t like when things are obvious 'downsized' from the company in charge:

http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031225-e.html

White smoke around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1

Today at approximately 3:36PM, a big quake occurred and there was a big
sound around the Unit 1 and white smoke.

Every amateur on the planet can watch the videos and see the explosion with own eyes...

We, and probably every Japanese are asking the same question – What is really going on??


Note: I’m not a fundamentalist "anti-nuke", that’s stupid. My opinion is that being a fundamentalist "pro-nuke" could be 'problematic' as well... (no offence). My opinion is pragmatic; we should go for the safest, environmental and most productive solution...

 

[Astronuc]

There was definitely an explosion at the plant. It's not clear from the media what building did explode. Edano is stressing that folks stop propagating rumors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110312/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake

I have no idea how information flows from the plant to officials or the media. I am too far removed from the situation.

Certainly the US NRC will lean on the suppliers of nuclear technology and the utility operators to make sure that such failures do not occur in the future. However, to make any meaningful assessment, we need accurate information about what actually happened and is happening.

As I mentioned elsewhere, it looked like the explosion occurred away from the troubled unit 1. But I'd have to find a site map to determine the orientation of units 1-4 in order to figure out which building was damaged in the explosion.

Edit: If unit 1 is the northernmost of the 4 units, then it is unit 1 where the explosion occured.

Units 1-5 apparently have Mark I containment.
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html


Most plants of that type have metal building (shells) surrounding the reinforced concrete containment. If the outer metal structure is damaged, there is still the inner reinforced concrete containment system.

Here is a basic schematic of a BWR unit.
http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/bwrs.html

The problem is to get cooling water through the emergency cooling system to the core inside the pressure vessel.

According to this article - Japan has informed IAEA about explosion: watchdog
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1116088/1/.html

 

[nismaratwork]

Thanks Astronuc. Yes, it seems hard to get coherent and reliable info. The question is why?

Of course it’s a very 'confusing' situation with quakes and tsunamis, but personally I don’t like when things are obvious 'downsized' from the company in charge:


Every amateur on the planet can watch the videos and see the explosion with own eyes...

We, and probably every Japanese are asking the same question – What is really going on??


Note: I’m not a fundamentalist "anti-nuke", that’s stupid. My opinion is that being a fundamentalist "pro-nuke" could be 'problematic' as well... (no offence). My opinion is pragmatic; we should go for the safest, environmental and most productive solution...

I think that nuclear power is, as you say, just one of the newest tools in the arsenal of energy production. It has its ups, and its downss... anyone who says anything else is selling you a spent Uranium mine.

Still... why the reliable info gap? Fear... media echo chamber... distrust... and the reality that radiation is not something most people understand at the 'gut' level. Hearing 620mREM/hour is alarming in one sense, but in a practical sense it's not... I'd worry if we're in the REM/hour range, which is going to do some ugly things to you if you stick around.

Still, how many people in the world bother to study radiation exposure, which isotopes decay at what rate... they'll fear mystical fallout, and inhale radioactive I without a blink. People are fundamentally terrified of things that can kill them, without being seen.

 

[nismaratwork]

There was definitely an explosion at the plant. It's not clear from the media what building did explode. Edano is stressing that folks stop propagating rumors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110312/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake

I have no idea how information flows from the plant to officials or the media. I am too far removed from the situation.

One thing that isn't up for grabs: 4 people have been (at least) injured in that explosion, so I'm guessing the info-flow is not exactly smooth from on-site, to staging area, to central command post.

Oh, and there was just a 6.4 aftershock... sheesh.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... selling you a spent Uranium mine.

Watch it! I was on the edge digging up that disgusting Lame Joke!

Still... why the reliable info gap? Fear... media echo chamber... distrust...

True. No one is winning the "media war" acting like "Baghdad Bob", "Tahrir Mubarak" or "Tripoli Crazy Horse"...

People are fundamentally terrified of things that can kill them, without being seen.

Well, we actually got some of the 'stuff' from Chernobyl here on the ground in Sweden... and I can tell you it’s not fun to wonder if those delicious Mööse-meatballs are radioactive or not! ()

 

[nismaratwork]

Watch it! I was on the edge digging up that disgusting Lame Joke!



True. No one is winning the "media war" acting like "Baghdad Bob", "Tahrir Mubarak" or "Tripoli Crazy Horse"...



Well, we actually got some of the 'stuff' from Chernobyl here on the ground in Sweden... and I can tell you it’s not fun to wonder if those delicious Möös-meatballs are radioactive or not! ()

Of course they're radioactive, they would be anyway... the trick is HOW radioactive, and is it a strong alpha emitter?

Remember, Chernobyl was a meltdown and a fire... a complete disaster and failure of containment and cooling of the fuel. At worst, and please correct me if I'm wrong here Atronuc, I think this could be a 3-mile Island... at the worst. I don't see a burning core in the future of this plant, but I can understand why you'd be concerned.

Hell, if we weren't looking at coal as the main alternative, it wouldn't be so attractive, but theonly way to look at nuclear power is in the context of its alternatives.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Hell, if we weren't looking at coal as the main alternative, it wouldn't be so attractive, but theonly way to look at nuclear power is in the context of its alternatives.

True, and the truth is that the levels in Sweden was not lethal. And yes, there are no working alternatives, yet.

(Astronuc could you pleeeeaaaase fix that Cold Fusion Beta 1.0 NOW! )

 

[rhody]

If I may, first, thanks Astronuc for providing such honest and accurate assessment as possible given the situation. Stepping back for a moment, and on a brighter note (no, nismara, no pun intended, hehe), a few years back I watched a Frontline or PBS or 60 Minutes segment I can't remember which on the making the uranium fuel rods safe. I won't go in great detail, but the essence of the presentation was:

Make the rods in small segments with (combined with other elements, boron perhaps) if the rods heat to a critical, but not super critical state (due to the loss of cooling water), they are designed to give off "slag", that was the term used in the segment, and this would build up around the perimeter of the rod, slowing the reaction to a safe level. Lastly, these rods would be arranged in the core in such a way that if the cooling water were removed, they would not explode. I believe the they said that this technology has been available since the mid 1980's, and I am not sure if any of our plants use this fuel rod configuration or technology. I am sure their are efficiency issues as to how much heat is really produced using this type and configuration of fuel rod assemblies, but that is not the point here.

Would you care to comment on this, for the benefit of us all ?

Thanks...

Rhody...

P.S. I added overhead view of plant, see thumbnail...It appears from the thumbnail that is from 1975, it is just Fukushima I NPP, there are four more near the site, so I am not sure this is really of that much value, but I thought I would give it a shot, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_I_Nuclear_Power_Plant" . From the video it appears to occur in the third plant (separated by towers) from the right, however, if that is helpful. Wow, the wiki is up to date, and fairly accurate, kudos... to who ever is keeping it updated. I am impressed, for once...

 

[Astronuc]

Of course they're radioactive, they would be anyway... the trick is HOW radioactive, and is it a strong alpha emitter?

Remember, Chernobyl was a meltdown and a fire... a complete disaster and failure of containment and cooling of the fuel. At worst, and please correct me if I'm wrong here Atronuc, I think this could be a 3-mile Island... at the worst. I don't see a burning core in the future of this plant, but I can understand why you'd be concerned.

Hell, if we weren't looking at coal as the main alternative, it wouldn't be so attractive, but theonly way to look at nuclear power is in the context of its alternatives.

It's apparently more like TMI-2 core damage than Chernobyl.

Picture shows the loss of upper containment, the metal part of the building that covers the inner concrete containment.
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110312/capt.e9f639e37b9c44d1840d0a5b45425856-e9f639e37b9c44d1840d0a5b45425856-0.jpg?x=400&y=302&q=85&sig=U_qu_ZFZI2cVI7tak6ppOw--

The explosion could have been from hydrogen which is generated from the oxidation/corrosion of the Zircaloy (Zr alloy) cladding of the fuel and the channels surrounding each assembly with the steam at high temperature. The hydrogen then escaped from the primary system into containment and the resulting explosion blew off the metal sheeting.

It would appear that Unit 1 is history.

Let's not bring cold fusion into this.

 

[Astronuc]

Make the rods in small segments with (combined with other elements, boron perhaps) if the rods heat to a critical, but not super critical state (due to the loss of cooling water), they are designed to give off "slag", that was the term used in the segment, and this would build up around the perimeter of the rod, slowing the reaction to a safe level. Lastly, these rods would be arranged in the core in such a way that if the cooling water were removed, they would not explode. I believe the they said that this technology has been available since the mid 1980's, and I am not sure if any of our plants use this fuel rod configuration or technology. I am sure their are efficiency issues as to how much heat is really produced using this type and configuration of fuel rod assemblies, but that is not the point here.

Basically one would have to make fuel elements out of carbides or graphite (carbon), and probably not use water for cooling, but rather use an inert gas. There is a program looking at Si carbide fuel cladding. The pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR) is one such concept.

Decay heat has to be removed from a reactor core following shutdown, so there needs to be a reliable cooling system for shutdown and emergencies, in addition to a reliable power generation system.

The current system at Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 failed, and we have to understand what failed and why in order to prevent future occurrences.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Picture shows the loss of upper containment, the metal part of the building that covers the inner concrete containment.
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110312/capt.e9f639e37b9c44d1840d0a5b45425856-e9f639e37b9c44d1840d0a5b45425856-0.jpg?x=400&y=302&q=85&sig=U_qu_ZFZI2cVI7tak6ppOw--

Does this have any effect on the overall security?

Let's not bring cold fusion into this.

It was a joke.

 

[rhody]

Astro,

See the PS edit I just added from my previous post, site map of reactor plant 1 circa 1975, I believe.

Rhody...

 

[Astronuc]

Astro,

See the PS edit I just added from my previous post, site map of reactor plant 1 circa 1975, I believe.

Rhody...

From the overhead picture, I believe the orientation of the units is from south to north (left to right) is 4, 3, 2, 1 and 5, 6. The picture would be made while unit 6 was being built. Unit 1 is the smallest and oldest of the units. I believe units 1 and 2 share a turbine building, and units 3 and 4 also share a turbine building.

From the hill west of the plant.
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20110312/capt.5e0e36d5e024444395b8b3428aa754be-5e0e36d5e024444395b8b3428aa754be-0.jpg?x=400&y=258&q=85&sig=E5v.EGczNc6lhMSjmMdP3Q--

Leftmost would be unit 1.

 

[Lacy33]

I don't see this being the same as Chernobyl, but there is a concern that if the cladding oxidizes/corrodes that fisson products would be released into the coolant. Fissions gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, and volatiles like I, could be released into the atmosphere, but one would expect, the Iodine would be trapped in filters. Other soluble nuclides would be in the cooling water.

Japan has a large population of professionals, and the USNRC and other organizations are ready to step in and provide support and assistance.

There will be repercussions due to the poor performance, really failure, of the safety systems. I imagine that unit 1 at FK Daiichi will be permanently shutdown, especially if they use seawater directly in the core.

The industry will do yet another reassessment of the preparedness for such an event.

I would certainly go if asked. I would like to be there in person to see what is actually going on, but I'd be in the way. They need personnel with direct plant operating experience with that particular plant design.

It would be interesting to go if one had the qualifications. But like any professional, you know that resources in the area are limited and will only hold essential personnel.
One can only hope they build that plant on property high enough and out of the way of flooding.
I was wondering, considering the limited resources, what would happen if they used sea water to cool the core.
You answered that. Thank you.
My two remaining questions are, can the plant be near completely shaken down and containment structures release dangerous components? And what would happen if the plant were to be totally submerged? Or both?
G-d forbid.

Also did Ben Vereen get his start in show business on the Lawrence Welk Show? JK

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Fukushima before and after:

[URL]http://www.chernobylee.com/blog/images/201103/Fukushima_Before_After.jpg.pagespeed.ce.35oUNAkFGW.jpg[/URL]

Still photos from NHK World News broadcasts

 

[Astronuc]

The Mark I containment is designed to use water available in containment, in the torus for emergency cooling. As water is boiled off, it has to be supplemented from the outside. That continues until the core is cooled off.

Ideally, the fission products and unused fuel remain contained in containment. However, the fission gases, Xe and Kr will leak out with the steam that is released to keep pressure down. Other fission products like I and Cs will dissolve in the water, and if that water leaks out of containment, then the fission products will escape in the water. The water could then be diluted in the sea. While unfortunate, it's not the end of the world.

They will try to get sufficient cooling water into containment to minimize damage to the core and pressure vessel. They might flood containment, but not submerge the plant.

Beyond that, it is difficult to give a reasonable or informed explanation because I/we don't know the specific details regarding that status of the core, fuel, containment, or the specifics of how they are cooling the reactor. I don't see any value in speculation.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX1B_ir5StQ

 

[DevilsAvocado]

2011 03 12 Breaking News, Fears of nuclear meltdown after plant blast in Japan, Fukushima.

Cham Dallas, Professor, University of Georgia

 

[Lacy33]

They will try to get sufficient cooling water into containment to minimize damage to the core and pressure vessel. They might flood containment, but not submerge the plant.

Beyond that, it is difficult to give a reasonable or informed explanation because I/we don't know the specific details regarding that status of the core, fuel, containment, or the specifics of how they are cooling the reactor. I don't see any value in speculation.

I understand your not wanting to speculate. This is not a news station and you have that luxury.
I did not mean that anyone should submerge the plant, I meant what if it was hit with a wall of water hence submerged and can that plant be shaken down and and if so what mag earthquake would it take to shake down that or any new plant? Thank you.

 

[Astronuc]

I understand your not wanting to speculate. This is not a news station and you have that luxury.
I did not mean that anyone should submerge the plant, I meant what if it was hit with a wall of water hence submerged and can that plant be shaken down and and if so what mag earthquake would it take to shake down that or any new plant? Thank you.

As far as we know, the plant was not damaged, and the other units (2-6) at the site are intact.

The inner containment (dry well) of unit 1 seems to be mostly intact. The question is what is going on inside the pressure vessel which holds the core. The pressure vessel is enclosed in the dry well.

If there was a hydrogen explosion, then it had to come from hydrogen generated in the core, and that indicates damage (significant oxidation/corrosion) to the Zr alloys (fuel cladding and channels) of the fuel. That could be considered a partial meltdown similar to TMI-2 core damage accident. Then one has to determine how much of the core is damaged.

Also in the core are the control rods which are inserted to keep the reactor shutdown, or subcritical. The control rods are made of stainless steel and contain boron (in form of boron carbide) and possibly hafnium. Boron (B-10) and hafnium are neutron absorbers and the absorb neutrons instead of the fuel. The plant personnel can also add borated water to the core in order to ensure that the damaged core remains subcritical. If there is a partial core meltdown, then that could also displace water such that criticality is not necessarily acheiveable.

At the moment, we have to wait for accurate and reliable information regarding the status of the core and cooling program.

 

[rhody]

2011 03 12 Breaking News, Fears of nuclear meltdown after plant blast in Japan, Fukushima.

Cham Dallas, Professor, University of Georgia

Devils,

Nothing personal here, but that CNN news account bugs me in so many ways I won't even begin to list them all, and nothing against you for posting it. I personally don't care for fear mongering without facts to substantiate.

Rhody...

 

[Lacy33]

Thank you Astro, This has been very interesting and thank you for explaining this to us. We will just continue to watch with you, but now we understand what is going on. ... More than we did.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Devils,

Nothing personal here, but that CNN news account bugs me in so many ways I won't even begin to list them all, and nothing against you for posting it. I personally don't care for fear mongering without facts to substantiate.

Rhody...

Did you watch the video??

 

[Lacy33]

Did you watch the video??

DA, I want to share some of my yummy medicine with you.
Then we can both be more calm. Aww, :!)

 

[nismaratwork]

Did you watch the video??

I did DA... I saw a hydrogen explosion, and then some dirty steam and smoke. You have to understand, if the fuel had become exposed we'd be talking Grays and Sieverts (or REMs it seems), not milliREMS. This isn't a good thing, because by some account (not verified) the concrete casing around the #2 reactor was compromised, but it doesn't sound like the... oh hell, what's the word, not sleeve... the inner layer is still intact.

The government is handing out Iodine tabs, and has established a reasonable exclusion zone. This isn't good, but I'm not seeing anything to be hysterical about. Lacy's right... deep breaths man, remember, even if this WERE Chernobyl 2.0, what could you do? Keep your mind clear, your emotions tamped down, and focus on the events as they evolve.

Maybe cesium is leaking, maybe not... we're not going to know much of this right now, unless you're Astronuc or have friend with NEST. We can only hope that Astronuc is wrong, and we're not seing oxidization of the fuel cladding, although I wouldn't bet against him for anything. If this is a TMI-2... it's not going to change because of our fear... even if you're personally at risk.

This is the time to be calm, even detatched, and rely on the most reliable info... nothing else.

 

[rhody]

Did you watch the video??

Yes, and around 2:45 where the professor says it reach levels approaching three mile island but not Chernobyl may be a fair statement (I am no expert, we need Astro for that), and he didn't address a complete meltdown issue, skirted the question. I guess what bugged me the most was after thinking about it for awhile was, why wasn't CNN putting experts on the air to explain what could be done to contain the heat. Like progress on getting power restored to the cooling systems would have been more appropriate IMHO. This story makes for great ratings, however, this is not the time to try and capitalize on the situation. I broke a promise to myself about stating political views on this forum, which I intend not to repeat.

Rhody...

 

[nismaratwork]

As far as we know, the plant was not damaged, and the other units (2-6) at the site are intact.

The inner containment (dry well) of unit 1 seems to be mostly intact. The question is what is going on inside the pressure vessel which holds the core. The pressure vessel is enclosed in the dry well.

If there was a hydrogen explosion, then it had to come from hydrogen generated in the core, and that indicates damage (significant oxidation/corrosion) to the Zr alloys (fuel cladding and channels) of the fuel. That could be considered a partial meltdown similar to TMI-2 core damage accident. Then one has to determine how much of the core is damaged.

Also in the core are the control rods which are inserted to keep the reactor shutdown, or subcritical. The control rods are made of stainless steel and contain boron (in form of boron carbide) and possibly hafnium. Boron (B-10) and hafnium are neutron absorbers and the absorb neutrons instead of the fuel. The plant personnel can also add borated water to the core in order to ensure that the damaged core remains subcritical. If there is a partial core meltdown, then that could also displace water such that criticality is not necessarily acheiveable.

At the moment, we have to wait for accurate and reliable information regarding the status of the core and cooling program.

Is the Borated water (sounds like something Borek might make before bed ) is the neutron poison they flood the reactor with?

I have to say, given how unstable Fukishima is seismically, I'm a bit surprised that they didn't switch to a newer generation reactor. I know you're not convinced that PBR would avoid this, but surely being able to 'scatter' the bed would help in dissipating heat, and slowing the reaction even more than control rods or neutron poisons.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

DA, I want to share some of my yummy medicine with you.
Then we can both be more calm. Aww, :!)

Sure, I eat anything if this nightmare will just end!

()

 

[nismaratwork]

Sure, I eat anything if this nightmare will just end!

()

*prepares blowdart with xanax and haldol*

You'll feel better in a moment... or you'll drool to death... one or the other! *ffffwwwt*

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... I broke a promise to myself about stating political views on this forum, which I intend not to repeat.

Rhody...

Niema problema compañero.

... the funny thing though is that some of Cham Dallas very first words are "... [it] will not be dangerous ... however you cannot overestimate the fear factor ..." and the rest of the video goes along the same lines.


(sorry I just had to do it... )