8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[nismaratwork]

Oh wow... apparently an oil refinery in Hokkaido, and Miyagi is on fire... and more widespread fires. This is looking worse as the sun rises.

 

[Borek]

Talking about preparation... Death toll will be high, but imagine something like that hitting other, less prepared place.

 

[nismaratwork]

Talking about preparation... Death toll will be high, but imagine something like that hitting other, less prepared place.

Who needs to imagine... it happened in Indonesa. =(

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Really bad news for already struggling Japanese economy.

 

[nismaratwork]

Really bad news for already struggling Japanese economy.

Hmmm... maybe not as much as you'd think in the short term. Remember, construction is a big deal in Japan, and this is going to fuel a boom in that for a while.

In the long run... ugh.

I just feel horror at the notion of people being violently drowned, in terror, even trying to run.

 

[nismaratwork]

Wow... the images coming out of Japan are horrific, and absolutely heartbreaking.

Oh, and the US Military and JDF are already beginning to mobilize.

edit: NHK is reporting that there will be venting of the plant as Astronuc described, and by all reports the radiation involved should be minimal... I hope. Certainly it beats the alternative.

 

[CAC1001]

The plant personnel apparently plan to release some pressure from the primary system of FK-1, unit 1, and they have to prepare the public for that. The steam would contain noble gases, radioisotopes of Xe and Kr, which would be vent up a stack and diluted in the wind, which will carry it eastward out to sea (Pacific Ocean). Ostensibly, any iodine will be captured on filters, which are designed to capture iodine, which is then allowed to decay.

Nevertheless, this is not a situation that any plant operator wants to be in. It is a black eye for TEPCO and Japans nuclear industry.


Note the reds lines in the plots of the earthquakes. We could be seeing some more significant seismic activity south of Tokyo.

On this nuclear plant, does this put a black eye on the "nuclear power is safe" claims? Or would this be like a modern Three Mile Island where the critics of nuclear power would blow it out of proportion...?

 

[dlgoff]

Nevertheless, this is not a situation that any plant operator wants to be in. It is a black eye for TEPCO and Japans nuclear industry.

Man! I'm sure hoping this will not kill "efforts" to build reactors here.

 

[Astronuc]

We have military in that region. How long before they can offer help? Meaning, do they need authorization from us (U.S)?

Obama talked with the PM this morning. One carrier is already in Japan, and another is on the way. Immediate assistance will have to flow in by C-5's.

The NRC and supporting agencies are communicating with Japanese authorities and TEPCO, and they will try to get alternate power supplies to the plant site.

On this nuclear plant, does this put a black eye on the "nuclear power is safe" claims? Or would this be like a modern Three Mile Island where the critics of nuclear power would blow it out of proportion...?

I certainly expect some anti-nukes and the media to blow things out of proportion and declare worst case scenario, a la core meltdown, which I don't see as necessarily occurring. At the moment the fuel is at risk, but the plant is designed to cope with it. One does not want to see the fuel damaged from both an economic as well as safety risk.

At the moment TEPCO is stating:

At this moment, we have decided to implement measures to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessel for those units that cannot confirm certain
level of water injection by the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System, in order to fully secure safety.

It's not clear from the statement if only one (Unit 1) or all three units (1, 2 and 3) which were operating are affected.

It's clear that plant management did a poor job of ensuring the operation of the plant in such an event, and this is troublesome because they should have learned from the Niigata earthquake that heavily damaged the Kashiwazaki plant in 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chūetsu_offshore_earthquake

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiw...r_Plant#2007_Ch.C5.ABetsu_offshore_earthquake


Meanwhile - I've heard reports of one person being swept out to sea in California, 4 people rescued after being washed away in Oregon, and damage to several ports along the US Pacific Coast.

 

[CAC1001]

Thanks for the info; one other question I have - I was reading over at another forum, some guy said that the media's claim that coolant is being flown in by airplanes isn't true because those plants use something like 6,000 gallons a minute and it thus would be like squeezing out your washcloth over a car radiator, is this true? (one would expect the media to get things really wrong on something like this I would think).

 

[Astronuc]

Man! I'm sure hoping this will not kill "efforts" to build reactors here.

That's why we try not to build plants too close faults and seismically active areas. We also do extensive seismic analysis on the reactors, the fuel, and the whole containment system.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Anyone who is an American Airlines FF member might take advantage of this deal

https://american.redcross.org/site/...nes-pub&JServSessionIdr004=5mlwwqizd4.app195a

 

[CAC1001]

If a meltdown at the nuclear plant was to occur, would this be a disaster for the reason, or would the radiation be sealed within a shell?

 

[Astronuc]

If a meltdown at the nuclear plant was to occur, would this be a disaster for the reason, or would the radiation be sealed within a shell?

I would not expect the core to 'melt', but it could be severely damaged. I would expect the pressure vessel to contain the damage core. The pressure vessel at TMI-2 contained the core, but it was damaged. It now sits shutdown, and the water in containment is just sitting there. Unit 2 is more or less mothballed.

Ideally, they will cool the reactor. At the moment, we can only wait and see what occurs and what actions the government will take with respect to future operation.

Update: Here is another article on Yahoo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-quake-causes-apf-1121920057.html

Authorities said radiation levels had jumped 1,000 times normal inside Unit 1 and were measured at eight times normal outside the plant. They expanded an earlier evacuation zone more than threefold, from 3 to 10 kilometers (2 miles to 6.2 miles). Some 3,000 people had been urged to leave their homes in the first announcement.
. . . .

That's not necessarily significant, but it could indicate that some fuel is breached, or there is a lot of crud (activated corrosion products) that got released in the coolant. Crud would normally be cleaned up on filters. The problem with the article is that it does not indicate what activity, gas or coolant, or the radioisotope, so we don't know the basis of the statement or how accurate it is.


Meanwhile -

http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/business-news-briefs/2011/03/mid-day_update_youtube_web_bri.html

I'm constantly amazed at the people who simply drive into the flood water. They do not seem to know a route inland.

 

[nismaratwork]

I would not expect the core to 'melt', but it could be severely damaged. I would expect the pressure vessel to contain the damage core. The pressure vessel at TMI-2 contained the core, but it was damaged. It now sits shutdown, and the water in containment is just sitting there. Unit 2 is more or less mothballed.

Ideally, they will cool the reactor. At the moment, we can only wait and see what occurs and what actions the government will take with respect to future operation.

Update: Here is another article on Yahoo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-quake-causes-apf-1121920057.html

That's not necessarily significant, but it could indicate that some fuel is breached, or there is a lot of crud (activated corrosion products) that got released in the coolant. Crud would normally be cleaned up on filters. The problem with the article is that it does not indicate what activity, gas or coolant, or the radioisotope, so we don't know the basis of the statement or how accurate it is.


Meanwhile -

http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/business-news-briefs/2011/03/mid-day_update_youtube_web_bri.html

I'm constantly amazed at the people who simply drive into the flood water. They do not seem to know a route inland.

A lot of good info... and I appreciate it a LOT. I am cursed with some relatives who are fission-phobic, and the only antitidote is information, even if it's not always pretty. I think I'd add...

...This is 40 year old plant, that suffered the effects of the most powerful quake in Japan in recorded history... even if it never works again, if it can be safely dismantled that should be rather amazing to people. Just my opinion obviously, but it strikes me as kind of amazing that this sucker is still in one piece.

edit: People mix 'pills' with alcohol... everything else is vaguely comprehensible in terms of rashness, idiocy, or panic. Seriously... you'd think Karen Ann Quinlan would have driven the point home, but noooOOoooo.

 

[Astronuc]

I posted in a related thread in the Nuclear Engineering forum.

A Reuters article (and others) attributes a statement to METI that the pressure in Unit 1 (vessel?) has reached 2.1 times design. That's not good, but then I can't substantiate that with a reliable source. I don't know if it refers to the primary system or containment; the design pressure are very different.

A second unit (unit 2?) is also having pressure control problems. Again it's unsubstantiated with an official source.

Also, unit 1 is the oldest of the 6 units at the site; first criticality March 1971. Unit 2 is about three years younger (first criticality July 1974). Fourty years is the original design life of the unit, although lifetimes of units of that vintage are being extended to 60 years.

Plant means the whole site. Some plants may have a single unit, but many, perhaps most have two or more units (reactors, primary system and balance of plant (BOP)).

 

[nismaratwork]

I'm really impressed by what's being discussed on CNN right now... Cham Davis is being pretty clear about the best-worst case scenario, and talking about the fear aspect.

In addition he seems certain (no guarantee) that before power died they did manage to fully insert control rods... so the SCRAM did work, meltdown is not a happening thing. I don't know how others will cover this, or use it... venting into the atmosphere is going to scare people, but so far there is real moderation in tone at least in the presence of authority.

On the other hand, it seems clear that the Japanese people are going to be afraid and angry no matter how this plays out... and not just the Japanese. Everyone just goes to Chernobyl (mentally I hope) and 3 Mile Island... as though they were remotely on the same order of magnitude.

I'm concerned that when the experts are no longer being interviewed, the sound-bites will become means to scare people.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

There have been mag 6's and 7's (with aftershocks in the 4-5 range) near the coast before, but an 8.9 is rare, but really devastating.

Thanks Astronuc, I was thinking about possible 'pre-warnings'... on the site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php" it starts already on 2011/03/09 02:45:20 with a M7.2, and then there are twenty M5.0+ quakes near Honshu... before the M8.9...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Surreal footage, just look at the wave in the beginning of the first video – the ship is completely disappearing in the wave trough! That wave must have been > 8 meters!

If "only" 300 people were killed in Sendai – it’s a miracle! The distance from http://maps.google.com/maps?f=d&sou...16,140.818634&spn=0.334903,0.727158&t=k&z=11", and they say on CNN that they had approx 10 min (some say 30?) to evacuate. 1+ million people evacuated in less than 30 min must be a MIRACLE!

(zoom in on the map, there’s a lot of buildings near the shore...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqhKzMNTdZ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YPOK_3r8Dc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBwVcrzGiTc

 

[caffenta]

Thanks Astronuc, I was thinking about possible 'pre-warnings'... on the site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php" it starts already on 2011/03/09 02:45:20 with a M7.2, and then there are twenty M5.0+ quakes near Honshu... before the M8.9...

There are always quakes in Japan. Continually. They never stop. It's nothing unusual.

This is 1924-2008 (from http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/earthquake.html" )

Japan has an early warning system, but it's only a few seconds. They have a monitoring system in place to try to predict the big Tokai one, but nobody knows if it actually works.

 

[Astronuc]

Japan initiates emergency protocol after earthquake
http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?sectioncode=132&storyCode=2059127

Still lacking key details.


Regarding the tsunami from the mag 8.9 earthquake, using the following information

Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
38° 15' 17" N
140° 53' 5" E

Sendai, Japan
Region: Miyagi
Country: Japan
Latitude: 38.2547222
Longitude: 140.8847222


Mag 8.9 earthquake
Latitude: 38.322 N
Longitude: 142.369 E

and assuming that 1 degree longitude is ~95 km, then the quake was about 140 km from Sendai City center which is about 10 miles (16 km) inland from the coast.

At 500 mph (800 kmph), the tsunami would hit the coast in about 10 minutes. Not a lot to time to react if one was not listening to the radio. On the other hand, presumably folks felt that quake and they should have immediately headed inland - and not toward the coast or parallel with the coast. Just get to higher ground - of at least 10 m above sea level.

One can get a more accurate distance with a calculator.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml


BTW - there was a mag 6.8 this morning, 2011/03/12 01:47:16, lat: 37.588N, long: 142.682E at depth of 24.8 km OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.

 

[OmCheeto]

We're going to have give our mister Elliot some hell for not properly tying up his submarine:

In Guam, the tsunami snapped mooring lines to two attack submarines, Houston and City of Corpus Christi. Tug boats immediately responded. “Both subs are safe and under the control of the tug boats,” Joint Region Marianas posted on its Facebook page. No injuries have been reported.

Good to hear that our subs are now under the control of tug boats.

 

[lisab]

We're going to have give our mister Elliot some hell for not properly tying up his submarine:



Good to hear that our subs are now under the control of tug boats.

Oh dear. Don't they teach sailors the fine art of knot-tying anymore?

 

[nismaratwork]

Oh dear. Don't they teach sailors the fine art of knot-tying anymore?

Nah, just boy scouts, and look at the state we're in now!

 

[caffenta]

At 500 mph, the tsunami would hit the coast in about 15 minutes. Not a lot to time to react if one was not listening to the radio. On the other hand, presumably folks felt that quake and they should have immediately headed inland - and not toward the coast or parallel with the coast. Just get to higher ground - of at least 10 m above sea level.

Warnings were issued immediately, not just by radio. But the problem is that the region is flat and there are not that many roads towards higher ground, and not everybody is in a car, or even has one (Sendai is not LA). The region is a real pain to navigate, even in a non-emergency situation. http://maps.google.co.jp/?ie=UTF8&l...nt=3,0x5f8a2aee30cd55d3:0xba2579e0b846b1ee,0"

 

[nismaratwork]

Warnings were issued immediately, not just by radio. But the problem is that the region is flat and there are not that many roads towards higher ground, and not everybody is in a car, or even has one (Sendai is not LA). The region is a real pain to navigate, even in a non-emergency situation. http://maps.google.co.jp/?ie=UTF8&l...nt=3,0x5f8a2aee30cd55d3:0xba2579e0b846b1ee,0"

Yeah, unfortunately a lot of the flood waters are sticking around because of the terrain.

 

[Astronuc]

Unfortunately, they don't appear to have effective evacuation roots in that coastal area.

As for tsunami effects across the Pacific.

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/22/messagelhvpd9-22.htm

Crescent City, Ca has about 8 feet of water.

 

[nismaratwork]

Unfortunately, they don't appear to have effective evacuation roots in that coastal area.

As for tsunami effects across the Pacific.

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/22/messagelhvpd9-22.htm

Crescent City, Ca has about 8 feet of water.

It's a damned shame, but there's only so much you can do with 15 minutes and a LOT of flat farmland and vallys.

8 feet in CC, CA?! Jesus.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Surreal footage, just look at the wave in the beginning of the first video – the ship is completely disappearing in the wave trough! That wave must have been > 8 meters!

Heck, I've Boogie Boarded a wave that big. It is more the length than the height of the wave that makes it so devestating.

The black wall of water scouring the countryside did appear to be about twenty-five or thirty feet in height. Simply unbelievable!

 

[caffenta]

Heck, I've Boogie Boarded a wave that big. It is more the length than the height of the wave that makes it so devestating.

Tell me that again when you're faced with an 8-meter wall of water. Here are actual http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/observation.html" , not just media-generated anectodes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Tell me that again when you're faced with an 8-meter wall of water.

What I said was true. I have faced an 8-meter wall of water on a Boogie Board [the ride of a lifetime too!]. And for hardcore surfers, that's just childsplay. At North Shore in Hawaii, everyone starts going home when the waves get that small!


That is not to take away from the devestating effects of the tsunami. As I said, it is the wavelength more than the amplitude that makes it so deadly.

 

[Borek]

I wonder... What was the tide level on US coast when the wave came? And what is the tide amplitude on the US coast?

What I am thinking about is that if the tsunami wave came during low water and wave height was comparable with the tide, it could be dangerous for those that ventured to the beach (fast changes) but relatively safe for infrastructure (water don't getting higher than it does on a daily basis). On the other hand combined wave would be really high, but as there are no reports about disastrous effects I guess it wasn't the case.

 

[hypatia]

And now a explosion at the damaged plant..this just keeps getting worse.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Too small:

Massive Explosion at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVwDnDo6BaM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIZUTKNBWRU

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

Japan's nuclear agency said on Saturday that radioactive caesium and iodine had been detected near the number one reactor of the Fukushima 1 plant.

The agency said this may indicate that containers of uranium fuel inside the reactor may have begun melting.

 

[Astronuc]

There are conflicting reports:

Explosion did not occur at reactor: Japan spokesman
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110312p2g00m0dm073000c.html

vs

Explosion Destroys Walls of Japanese Nuclear Reactor Building, NHK Reports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/explosion-destroys-walls-of-japan-reactor-building-nhk-reports.html


http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Battle_to_stabilise_earthquake_reactors_1203111.html

It is certainly a very serious, even grave, situation. However, it is difficult, even impossible to give a reliable assessment based on the sketchy information available.