Get Vaccinated Against the Covid Delta Variant

[bhobba]

My understanding is they will not be vaccinating (healthy) children so they will all get it eventually.

In Aus, at the moment, they are doing anyone 12 and over and waiting for safety data on those under 12. Strangely for those under 20, the government will not implement any no jab, no pay rule for Covid. I would judge Delta to be as bad as Whooping Cough, for example.

Please have a look at the Burnett modelling I posted for what they call light measures. At 60% average vaccine effectiveness, 95% vaccinated over 60, the rest 70% plus light measures are what they think will control it. As 90% vaccination rates and third doses happen even light measures will not be necessary. You can see the report for various measures at various vaccination levels in the report.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

It didn't help that they were not allowed to wear masks in school due to Florida's Governor's NO masks in school mandate. Masks in school may have saved their lives.

In the Burnett modelling, which, if I remember correctly, is done in conjunction with the US Department Defence, their light restriction includes school masks. Amazing. Until we get something like 90% third doses, it's virtually mandatory.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Evo]

In the Burnett modelling, which, if I remember correctly, is done in conjunction with the US Department Defence, their light restriction includes school masks. Amazing. Until we get something like 90% third doses, it's virtually mandatory.

Thanks
Bill

My mistake, their school district was one that violated the Governor's No mask mandate, and required masks. It has gone to court, and the Governor has just won the right to stop masks in schools.

Also -

State to issue $5,000 fines for those asking for COVID vaccine proof​

The state of Florida will start issuing $5,000 fines to businesses, schools and government agencies that require people to provide proof of a COVID-19 vaccination.

https://nbc-2.com/news/state/2021/0...nes-for-those-asking-for-covid-vaccine-proof/

 

[phinds]

The US has gone from one of the most-vaccinated countries in the world (as a % of population) to somewhere between #40+ (documented in the link) and #55 (saw that on the news this morning)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html\

I would comment further but it would require making statements that would violate the rules on political discussions.

 

[Astronuc]

According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas pediatric COVID hospitalizations mark a record over this past weekend with 345 admissions on Saturday and 307 on Sunday. There were 51,904 positive COVID cases among Texas students since August 29.

I checked these number again because they are close to the average number nationwide (see below), which didn't make sense to me.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/health/delta-variant-in-kids/index.html

-- A record-high 2,396 children were hospitalized with Covid-19 as of Tuesday, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services.
-- An average of 369 pediatric Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospitals every day during the week ending September 6, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
-- More than 55,000 children have been hospitalized with Covid-19 since August 2020, according to CDC data. Many of those children had no known preexisting conditions.
-- While childhood Covid-19 deaths are still rare, that number is increasing. As of Wednesday, at least 520 children have died, according to CDC data.

But the number of pediatric hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is increasing.
August 20, 2021 - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/child-covid-19-hospitalizations-new-high-august-2021-n1277119

Two weeks earlier (August 6), "only two or three children a day would come into Dr. Nick Hysmith’s hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, with Covid-19, usually ones who were admitted for other reasons, like broken bones."

During the week of August 20, Dr. Nick Hysmith is seeing as many as 28 children under 18 a day, some of them landing in the intensive care unit.

The pediatric hospitalization numbers seem to be lagging, except for a few reports from particular news organizations or state departments of health.

 

[bhobba]

It has gone to court, and the Governor has just won the right to stop masks in schools.

What a twerp. Feynman noted we do not live in a scientific age. Why do people have to prove it constantly?

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ivan Seeking]

My mistake, their school district was one that violated the Governor's No mask mandate, and required masks. It has gone to court, and the Governor has just won the right to stop masks in schools.

What a twerp. Feynman noted we do not live in a scientific age. Why do people have to prove it constantly?

Thanks
Bill

Revenge of the Nerds: Vaccinations via mosquitos, ie Flying Vaccinators
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/42587873_Flying_Vaccinator_A_transgenic_Mosquito_Delivers_a_Leishmania_Vaccine_via_Blood_Feeding

 

[bhobba]

It had to happen - Delta has broken containment, and where I am will likely go into lockdown:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-11/qld-coronavirus-5-cases-no-lockdown/100454246

With people acting so crazy, watch the vaccination rate where I am go through the roof like in Sydney. They should do it before it happens, not when it happens..

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

NPR, September 10 - San Francisco Schools Have Had No COVID-19 Outbreaks Since Classes Began Last Month!

There have been no COVID outbreaks in San Francisco schools since students and educators went back to classrooms on Aug. 16, the city's health department said — noting that about 90% of children ages 12-17 are fully vaccinated.

An outbreak, the department said, means there are "three or more cases in non-related households in which the source of infection occurred at the school, and not another setting."

While the department reported there have been 227 COVID-19 cases — out of 52,000 students and nearly 10,000 staff — the "vast majority" of those cases are occurring outside of schools.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1035...ols-vaccinated-covid-outbreaks-none-pediatric

 

[bhobba]

With 90% vaccinated, no surprise. It just validated the Burnett modelling - above 90%, no need for even mild precautions at schools.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

It didn't help that they were not allowed to wear masks in school due to Florida's Governor's NO masks in school mandate. Masks in school may have saved their lives.

EDIT: My mistake, according to this article
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/08/1035157226/miami-covid-19-deaths-schools-district

Thanks for the update. I don't think the Florida EO is a mask ban that restricts anyone from wearing a mask at school. It's a misguided mandate ban, not a mask ban.

Mandate or not, my kid would wear a mask in a Florida school today even while fully vaccinated.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Thanks for the update. I don't think the Florida EO is a mask ban that restricts anyone from wearing a mask at school. It's a misguided mandate ban, not a mask ban.

Mandate or not, my kid would wear a mask in a Florida school today even while fully vaccinated.

Do parents have the option to choose video learning at home or are children required to attend school?

I don't see how you can force parents to send their children into classrooms filled with kids not wearing masks. I wouldn't unless the vaccination rate was very high.

 

[nsaspook]

Do parents have the option to choose video learning at home or are children required to attend school?

I don't see how you can force parents to send their children into classrooms filled with kids not wearing masks. I wouldn't unless the vaccination rate was very high.

There seems to be that option.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/...orida-virtual-schools-for-2021-22-school-year

Record enrollment continues in Florida Virtual Schools for 2021-22 school year​

Thousands of parents opting for virtual learning

My understanding is that parents in the high 90% range are sending kids to school with masks in areas of Florida without local mandates.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/...duval-student-body-opts-out-masks/5545301001/

Even as COVID-19 continues to surge in Northeast Florida, thousands of public school students across Jacksonville won't be wearing masks this week as schools re-open — their families signed paperwork making sure of it.

According to Duval County Public Schools, the school district has received forms for 4,700 students opting them out from wearing face masks on campus. The news comes a week after the local school board voted to make masks required unless a student's family filled out and turned in paperwork requesting otherwise.

Out of about 127,000 students returning to campus on Tuesday, that means about 3.7 percent will be unmasked.

 

[Evo]

There seems to be that option.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/...orida-virtual-schools-for-2021-22-school-year
My understanding is that parents in the high 90% range are sending kids to school with masks in areas of Florida without local mandates.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/...duval-student-body-opts-out-masks/5545301001/

There are actual financial penalties for schools that allow masks. It keeps changing due to the ongoing litigation, I'm going to bed, I can post articles about what is happening tomorrow, but I hesitate to do so because all of the articles name the governor that is behind all of it. If we agree not to get into politics, and just look at the problems, it would be ok.

 

[pinball1970]

There's no other way out for the country as a whole. I don't know that we are talking about 50 deaths (*), but certainly the overall impact of 5 million unvaccinated children attending school (or trying to) and spreading COVID is the problem.

Let's say that you really don't want to vaccinate children, then I suggest you need a lockdown for all children and close the schools.

If you don't do either, then the risk is that several million of those children get COVID for real - and infect several million adults. And, by a lack of courage to actually do something, we condemn ourselves to another grim six months for the entire country with no prospect of getting COVID under control. That carries its own risks of undermining what we have achieved.

And, if we lose another 10,000 people of all ages between now and next April, then you can hardly complain.

(*) PS There were 147 deaths in the UK just today. And, the full impact of the school's returning hasn't hit England yet.

I am not saying

In Aus, at the moment, they are doing anyone 12 and over and waiting for safety data on those under 12. Strangely for those under 20, the government will not implement any no jab, no pay rule for Covid. I would judge Delta to be as bad as Whooping Cough, for example.

Please have a look at the Burnett modelling I posted for what they call light measures.

Thanks
Bill

ok will do.

 

[pinball1970]

There's no other way out for the country as a whole. I don't know that we are talking about 50 deaths (*), but certainly the overall impact of 5 million unvaccinated children attending school (or trying to) and spreading COVID is the problem.

Let's say that you really don't want to vaccinate children, then I suggest you need a lockdown for all children and close the schools.

If you don't do either, then the risk is that several million of those children get COVID for real - and infect several million adults. And, by a lack of courage to actually do something, we condemn ourselves to another grim six months for the entire country with no prospect of getting COVID under control. That carries its own risks of undermining what we have achieved.

And, if we lose another 10,000 people of all ages between now and next April, then you can hardly complain.

(*) PS There were 147 deaths in the UK just today. And, the full impact of the school's returning hasn't hit England yet.

I have been in favour of every lock down in the UK so far. Edit.

 

[PeroK]

I have been in favour of every lock down in the UK so far. Edit.

Me too. But not the next one. They should lock down only those who aren't vaccinated and not the rest of us.

 

[nsaspook]

There are actual financial penalties for schools that allow masks. It keeps changing due to the ongoing litigation, I'm going to bed, I can post articles about what is happening tomorrow, but I hesitate to do so because all of the articles name the governor that is behind all of it. If we agree not to get into politics, and just look at the problems, it would be ok.

I think you will find the words mask mandate is associated with possible financial penalties for schools too. It's not a discussion of the politics of the states policies, just the facts of the matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/us/florida-schools-mask-mandates.html

The Florida Department of Education has withheld funds from two school districts that made masks mandatory in classrooms this fall, state officials announced on Monday, making good on a threat that local school boards that required students to wear masks would be punished financially.
...
The penalty applies to two school districts — Alachua County and Broward County — that went ahead with mask mandates in defiance of the governor’s order.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

Today's UK reported Covid deaths (from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) brings the total reported in the last 7 days to 983. That is equivalent to a yearly rate of over 51,000.

There were suggestions a couple of weeks ago that a government cost-benefit analysis concluded that it would have too much impact on the economy to have any new restrictions unless the death rate exceeded the equivalent of 50,000 a year:
https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-john...l-covid-deaths-as-an-acceptable-level-1170069

This level has now been passed and there are no signs of any attempt to prevent it rising further.

 

[Evo]

I think you will find the words mask mandate is associated with possible financial penalties for schools too. It's not a discussion of the politics of the states policies, just the facts of the matter.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/us/florida-schools-mask-mandates.html

During the night while laying awake, I decided not to post the articles due to the fact that this is a thread about the Covid Delta Variant and I am already guilty of beginning to pull it into the POLITICS of Covid.

It's the governor's ban on school mask mandates. The upshot is the state can resume its efforts to impose financial penalties on the 13 Florida school boards currently defying the mask ban

CNN -
Florida appeals court rules in favor of Governor, allowing his ban on mask mandates in schools to stand

I will not be furnishing links, anyone that wishes to learn about the ban of the school mandates and the financial penalties for doing so may google them. We will stick with the thread topic, sorry.

 

[Astronuc]

SunSentinel, Sep 10 - Florida reports 2,448 COVID-related deaths for the week, and over 100,000 new cases.

During the same period (September 4-10), NY state had ~221 confirmed deaths.

SunSentinel, Sep 10 - COVID-19 in Florida: 17,854 new cases reported, an increase of 31% from previous day

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/h...2021/269-a40dd20f-b719-44a4-831a-21717d44f335

• Texas Public Schools (2021-22 school year; updated on Fridays with data from the previous Monday-Sunday)
  • Cumulative positive student cases: 73,749, up from 60,527 on Aug. 29
  • Cumulative positive staff cases: 16,213, up from 14,377 on Aug. 29

TEXAS

• 19,486 new cases with a weekly average up to 13,957 per day
  • Down 2.5% from a week ago
  • Up 35% from a month ago
• 400 new deaths reported today
  • 58,332 total to date (since March 2020)
• 13,422 COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals
  • 9,282 adults regular beds
  • 3,834 adults in ICU
  • 306 kids

 

[nsaspook]

These school case numbers are just horrible. It's possible to have much better numbers with sensible mandates in a population with good vaccine rates.
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1035...ols-vaccinated-covid-outbreaks-none-pediatric

There have been no COVID-19 outbreaks in San Francisco schools since students and educators went back into classrooms on Aug. 16, the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced Thursday, noting that about 90% of children ages 12 to 17 are fully vaccinated.


An outbreak, the department said, means there are "three or more cases in non-related households in which the source of infection occurred at the school, and not another setting."

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The CDC released a new study of vaccine efficacy in the US in the period before Delta was prevalent vs after when Delta was prevalent. The data showed that protection from symptomatic infection dropped from ~90% to ~80% but protection from hospitalization and death did not decline, except among the elderly.

Here are some nice figures from the study, illustrating the results:

Here's a link to the full report

Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Status — 13 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–July 17, 2021
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w

Here are some good popular press summaries of the studies:

New U.S. studies released Friday show the COVID-19 vaccines remain highly effective against hospitalizations and death even as the extra-contagious delta variant swept the country.

One study tracked over 600,000 COVID-19 cases in 13 states from April through mid-July. As delta surged in early summer, those who were unvaccinated were 4.5 times more likely than the fully vaccinated to get infected, over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0210910-vtgzr6hm2nfrpdpdalgbql7dky-story.html

Another CDC study shows that the vaccines endured some erosion as the delta variant became dominant, especially among adults 65 and older, but protection against severe disease and death remained strong, albeit less so in that older group. The CDC analyzed data on more than 600,000 covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among people 18 and older by vaccination status, reported from April 4 to July 17 in 13 states and cities.

The report estimated that vaccine effectiveness against infection dropped from 90 percent in the first part of that period, when delta had not yet gained significant traction, to less than 80 percent from mid-June to mid-July, when delta began out-competing all other variants of the virus. Effectiveness against hospitalization and death showed barely any decline during the entire period.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/10/moderna-most-effective-covid-vaccine-studies/

 

[bhobba]

I mentioned where I am in Brisbane; we likely will go into lockdown due to 5 cases. I predicted this would lead to an increase in vaccinations. Call me Nostradamus:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09...ts-on-alert-but-authorities-hopeful/100455732
'Health authorities say they have been impressed with vaccine uptake over the weekend and are urging people to continue to show up to get the jab, with south-east Queensland so far managing to keep another COVID-19 outbreak at bay.'

We were lucky - it looks like the 5 cases did not seed. They still may, of course. We are not out of the woods yet.

Thanks
Bill

 

[PeroK]

We are not out of the woods yet.

At least you are trying to get out. Our government has decided to set up camp in the woods!

 

[Evo]

@Ygggdrasil, I read that immunocompromised people with 2 doses of Pfizer only had about half of the immunity that a normal healthy person had. Do you know anything about this, their specialist said they need the booster ASAP.

 

[bhobba]

@Ygggdrasil, I read that immunocompromised people with 2 doses of Pfizer only had about half of the immunity that a normal healthy person had. Do you know anything about this, their specialist said they need the booster ASAP.

I, too, am immunocompromised. When I asked my specialist he thought for a while and said - he was not sure. Still, he does not think the pathways affected by my psoriatic arthritis and the Biologic I take are associated with the immune pathways of Covid.

I am not worried personally because I believe, and our government has announced; everyone will get a third shot once everyone has been offered the first two.

Thanks
Bill

 

[nsaspook]

I, too, am immunocompromised. I asked him about this. My specialist thought for a while and said - he was not sure. Still, he does not think the pathways affected by my psoriatic arthritis and the Biologic I take are associated with the immune pathways of Covid.

I am not worried personally because I believe, and our government has announced; everyone will get a third shot once everyone has been offered the first two.

Thanks
Bill

I'm in the club too. My Doc is telling the immunocompromised to get the 3rd shot now before the booster herd jams the shot line.

 

[Evo]

I, too, am immunocompromised. I asked him about this. My specialist thought for a while and said - he was not sure. Still, he does not think the pathways affected by my psoriatic arthritis and the Biologic I take are associated with the immune pathways of Covid.

I am not worried personally because I believe, and our government has announced; everyone will get a third shot once everyone has been offered the first two.

Thanks
Bill

And @nsaspook, I had numbers before that people on biologics or steroids were at about 35-40% of the immunity of a healthy person, I don't know where I put that study.

Here is another article

Not surprisingly, treatment regimen for those who are immunocompromised due to medical treatment is another important variable. The preprint study on multiple types of immunocompromised patients also found a statistically significant correlation between steroid treatment (e.g., prednisone) and failure to mount a detectable antibody response post-vaccination.

Even in immunocompromised patients that have detectable antibodies after vaccination, titers are generally lower than in healthy patients. In a study of patients on immunosuppressive therapy for chronic inflammatory diseases, all patients were seropositive after vaccination, but antibody titers were significantly lower than in healthy controls.

https://asm.org/Articles/2021/August/How-Effective-Are-COVID-19-Vaccines-in-Immunocompr

 

[Astronuc]

Edit/Update: Corrected September dates.
Data from Florida Department of Health
Cumulative deaths and positive cases due to SARS-Cov-2

           Aug 6-12, 2021      Sep 3-9, 2021
Age Group Deaths  Pos Cases   Deaths  Pos Cases
Under 16     10     312934       17     441765
16 - 29     179     677531      307     779829
30 - 39     451     494749      694     580192
40 - 49    1240     437144     1857     509193
50 - 59    3097     411251     4276     472537
60 - 64    2919     160322     3730     184794
65+       32870     381619    37891     439205

Total     40766    2877214    48772    3409165

Just over 8000 deaths alone between August 12 and September 9 (mostly Delta variant and some Mu). Numbers increasing in all age groups.
Hospitalizations are not reported.
Data from http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_p..._archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf (updated each Friday for the week ending Thursday).

https://www.local10.com/news/florida/2021/09/10/florida-covid-latest-data-report/
According to the Florida Hospital Association, 12,262 patients were admitted with COVID across the state on Thursday, that is 12,262 persons were hospitalized. The number seems to be decreasing.

 

[artis]

Well zooming out looking at the whole world this wave seems be dropping both in new case numbers as well as daily deaths etc. It's peak was lower than the peak of the previous one.

 

[bhobba]

At least you are trying to get out. Our government has decided to set up camp in the woods!

The issue here is psychology. While it is under control is exactly when people should be rushing to get vaccinated. But they don't - they are lulled into a false sense of security and only get motivated when it actually is rampant.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

@Ygggdrasil, I read that immunocompromised people with 2 doses of Pfizer only had about half of the immunity that a normal healthy person had. Do you know anything about this, their specialist said they need the booster ASAP.

Here's what the CDC page on COVID-19 vaccines says:

Vaccine effectiveness in immunosuppressed people

Evidence of reduced antibody response to or reduced immunogenicity of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination has been observed in the following groups: people taking certain immunosuppressive medications like rituximab (47-50) or mycophenolate (50-53), people with hematologic cancers (54, 55), and hemodialysis patients (56). At this time, data on vaccine protection in people who are immunocompromised are limited; in addition, the impact of immune suppression on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness may vary by condition.(55, 57) Complete data on which immunocompromising conditions might affect response to COVID-19 vaccination are not available; in addition, there is no established immune correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 so the risk of infection in people who respond incompletely to COVID-19 vaccination cannot be quantified using immunogenicity data. People with immunocompromising conditions, including those taking immunosuppressive medications, should discuss the need for personal protective measures after vaccination with their healthcare provider.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

Here's the CDC recommendation:

CDC recommends that people with moderately to severely compromised immune systems receive an additional dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine at least 28 days after a second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/immuno.html

 

[Evo]

@Ygggdrasil Thank you! Since her specialist said to get the booster I will suggest that she try to get one asap.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/covid-19-deaths-in-delta-surge-hit-younger-unvaccinated-people/ar-AAOnTsG

The seven-day average for newly reported Covid-19 deaths each day recently eclipsed 1,600, up from an average that briefly moved below 220 a day in early July. With roughly 660,000 known Covid-19 deaths to date, the U.S. is on track to soon top the estimated 675,000 deaths that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has linked to the 1918-19 flu pandemic.

Deaths have been concentrated among the unvaccinated, federal data show. The CDC released studies on Friday showing that unvaccinated Americans were 4.6 times as likely to be infected, 10 times as likely to be hospitalized and 11 times as likely to die.

At Tampa General Hospital, about 90% of recent Covid-19 patients were unvaccinated, said Peggy Duggan, chief medical officer at the facility, which is one of Florida’s largest hospitals with more than 1,000 beds. Many patients who did get the shots have compromised immune systems due to organ transplants or cancer treatment, Dr. Duggan said.

Tampa General’s recent Covid-19 patients in intensive care were 46 years old on average, far below the average during prior surges when vulnerable seniors were often hospitalized, Dr. Duggan said. The hospital’s death rate for Covid-19 patients hasn’t changed, sticking around 7%.

Nebraska has finally detected the Mu variant, so it's made its way to all 50 states.