What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[Astronuc]

Thanks LowlyPion. I'm in Ireland so I only get a few US stations such as Fox and CNN but if it's on several no doubt one of them will have it if I'm still awake at 2 a.m. that is.

I'm sure CNN will carry it. It will probably be on the internet by the morning.

 

[LowlyPion]

Thanks LowlyPion. I'm in Ireland so I only get a few US stations such as Fox and CNN but if it's on several no doubt one of them will have it if I'm still awake at 2 a.m. that is.

Yes, it is on CNN and Fox News and Fox and MSNBC and ABC, NBC, CBS, CSPAN, BBC America, PBS, and in Spanish on Telefutura and in French TV5Monde.

 

[Evo]

Yes, it is on CNN and Fox News and Fox and MSNBC and ABC, NBC, CBS, BBC America

You forgot C-SPAN and PBS stations, those are the English speaking channels covering it.

 

[LowlyPion]

You forgot C-SPAN and PBS stations, those are the English speaking channels covering it.

Yeah. I have those too now.

I note that TV Kuwait is not carrying it though.

 

[Evo]

I note that TV Kuwait is not carrying it though.

You apparently have more channels than I do.

 

[LowlyPion]

You apparently have more channels than I do.

1951

But a number are radio. And I didn't mention the radio stations that are carrying it. There is an Asian and Indian station that I didn't find, but seeing as how its for Ireland and all ...

 

[Andre]

I guess it will be me, the cat, and dog watching the debate tonight. They never seem to offer much in the way of opinions, unfortunately.

Sure, they do. Their opinion is probably that a little petting is much more important than two guys yelling to each other Ask them.

 

[Astronuc]

The McCain-Obama debate -

Ouch! That hurt my ears.

Obama was not as smooth as I expected, and didn't sound like a great orator. McCain was smoother, but offered the same old tired rhetoric.

I turned it off when McCain mentioned that we have to drill off-shore.

Frankly, I could have done a better job addressing federal spending, taxes, the bailout, energy, healthcare, eductaion, national security, . . . .

I going to read a book.

 

[Pyrrhus]

The McCain-Obama debate -

Ouch! That hurt my ears.

Obama was not as smooth as I expected, and didn't sound like a great orator. McCain was smoother, but offered the same old tired rhetoric.

I turned it off when McCain mentioned that we have to drill off-shore.

Frankly, I could have done a better job addressing federal spending, taxes, the bailout, energy, healthcare, eductaion, national security, . . . .

I going to read a book.

I agree, I wonder if Biden would do a better job against Palin in the VP Debate.

 

[Evo]

Both came off very well, but I've got to say that Obama completely changed my impression of him tonight. I never cared for Obama, never thought he was that great at speaking, but tonight, he was awesome. He was to the point and had great, focused statements.

So, I take back any reservations on Obama that I had, tonight won me over. He is the only choice.

Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?

 

[Art]

SkyNews here, an affiliate of Fox News, gave it hands down to Obama. Although they thought both of their spiels were the standard stock fare delivered a hundred times before they thought Obama's presentation style was vastly superior to McCain's and they thought that McCain badly underperformed on what was supposed to be his strong suit.

Personally I thought Obama looked a hell of a lot more comfortable than when he debated with Clinton and looked by far the more presidential of the two candidates.

So far McCain has always far outperformed Obama in polls on the issue of foreign policy, it will be interesting to see if this debate changes the numbers.

 

[Defennder]

I count myself as an Obama supporter, and while I believe he didn't make any gaffes, tonight he failed to score a knockout against McCain. That doesn't mean he didn't "win", or whatever you guys mean when you say "win".

Anyway, while I think he did better against McCain than against Hillary in the primaries, he just wasn't as Astronuc put it, "smooth" enough.

 

[Evo]

BUWAHAHAHAHA.

On CNN, they just had a great interview with Biden, impressive. Wolf said he would have hoped that Palin would also have been willing to talk and the host says "Don't hold your breath on that one".

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.

 

[LowlyPion]

After carefully listening to the debate, and of course totally discounting and laying aside any mild bias that I may possibly have harbored prior to the debate, I thought that Obama did the far better job.

McCain was petulant, disdainful, not always answering the question directly and tended to ramble. What a sour loser.

If Obama was to be faulted it was perhaps for being a little too gracious and diplomatic and maybe even could have been more provocative in needling McCain. But his account of things seemed the more reasoned.

 

[Evo]

I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.

Actually Obama gave a time frame of 16 months to start (I think) withdrawals. I definitely remember 16 months.

 

[Evo]

After carefully listening to the debate, and of course totally discounting and laying aside any mild bias that I may possibly have harbored prior to the debate, I thought that Obama did the far better job.

McCain was petulant, disdainful, not always answering the question directly and tended to ramble. What a sour loser.

If Obama was to be faulted it was perhaps for being a little too gracious and diplomatic and maybe even could have been more provocative in needling McCain. But his account of things seemed the more reasoned.

McCain is being faulted for talking about the past. There was very little about the future, too much about talking about "the way it was", "what I remember".

 

[GCT]

Both came off very well, but I've got to say that Obama completely changed my impression of him tonight. I never cared for Obama, never thought he was that great at speaking, but tonight, he was awesome. He was to the point and had great, focused statements.

So, I take back any reservations on Obama that I had, tonight won me over. He is the only choice.

Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?

Astronuc, after all of your rants and screaming and tirades on here, have you changed your mind? I've notice that you don't seem to have a side in this anymore. I know you can't vote, but I noticed a change.

Yeah , he had that " forward " - moving on with what matters - agenda about him that really came on display while McCain was constantly ridiculing him on naivety all the while alluding to his infinite wisdom and appearing disgusted by Obama. I found this aspect of McCain disturbing and dispicable. He never faced Obama during the debate to acknowledge him. If I was Obama I may have just went on a verbal tirade by being immensely annoyed by him. McCain played the self righteous game - throwing stuff at Obama while wrapping himself in delusion - and I hate him for this ... While Obama maintained composure and kept his head.

 

[LowlyPion]

I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.

I tend to agree that Obama could have made better position statements on Iraq/Afghanistan and not have dwelled so heavily on "getting Osama", but then I think I need to consider the debate was for a broad slice of Americans, including those that have possibly snickered at the Obama bin Biden bumper stickers. Being tough on Osama. Tough on Muslim Extremists is likely an important base that he needs to touch.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Actually Obama gave a time frame of 16 months to start (I think) withdrawals. I definitely remember 16 months.

I know he wants to pull out. McCain says he wants to pull out too but only when it is safe to do so. He says he wants to 'win'. Obama never gave any reason why his plan, if one exists, is preferable to McCain's. He never tried to draw McCain out on what he plans to do other than 'win'. Rather it seemed to me that McCain was drawing Obama out. He just deflected it and distracted with talk of Afghanistan.

I'm just criticizing because I like him and expect better than that.

 

[Defennder]

The first thing I thought of when I heard Obama mention about getting Osama and taking the eyes off the ball on Afghanistan and onto Iraq was "Didn't Kerry say the same thing 4 years ago in the first debate? "

 

[Evo]

Interesting on CNN, with a group of "undecided' voters in Ohio, 64% gave the debate to Obama.

 

[LowlyPion]

The Republicans are trying to spin it that because Obama agreed with some of McCain's points and McCain didn't agree with any of his, that it was a great victory. I think that is a rather stunning calculus, as if choosing something arbitrary like say the number of prepositional phrases had anything to do with the power of the arguments.

 

[Evo]

The Republicans are trying to spin it that because Obama agreed with some of McCain's points and McCain didn't agree with any of his, that it was a great victory. I think that is a rather stunning calculus, as if choosing something arbitrary like say the number of prepositional phrases had anything to do with the power of the arguments.

It's a common tactic to say you agree with an opponent in order to not alienate those that agree with your opponent, then say how you disagree. I have been through years of training on how to debate and negotiate, this is Negotiation 101.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It's a common tactic to say you agree with an opponent in order to not alienate those that agree with your opponent, then say how you disagree. I have been through years of training on how to debate and negotiate, this is Negotiation 101.

Yes, and in particular I think he is trying to appeal to the undecided independents who are looking for someone who is willing to work across the aisle. I also think McCain missed the boat on this one. McCain was trying to drive the point of experience but instead appeared condescending. That will appeal to McCain's base but apparently not many of the undecided voters.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN's poll of polls has Obama up by 48-43 today [pre-debate].

With Michigan and Penn now listed as leaning Obama [up by at least 7%], the CNN electoral map shows Obama 240, McCain 200. The rest are within the margin of error for the polls. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

 

[mheslep]

...Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?...

No, he wants to cut us loose from the employer based tax break and the employer playing doctor. You get a personal tax break instead.

The employer based health care deduction is the primary reason for out of control health costs in the US. The US starting doing this by accident in WWII as consequence of war wage and price controls. Because of this, most people on employer plans don't know or care about the true cost of most medical services. At my recent employer which had good health plans, the full PPO family plans ran $20k/yr, with 1/2 - 2/3 of that paid by the employer. As a sometime consultant I keep an eye on private plans: MSA same plan/insurer w/ high deductible runs ~60% less. I found most people w/ the big employer were unaware of the total cost. The key to fixing health care is to bring the costs down, coverage is secondary (coverage <> health care).

Pre-existing or chronic illnesses are an issue and that has to be fixed as employers are cut loose from playing doctor. McCain proposes GAPs:
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/19ba2f1c-c03f-4ac2-8cd5-5cf2edb527cf.htm

A Specific Plan of Action: Ensuring Care for Higher Risk Patients

John McCain's Plan Cares For The Traditionally Uninsurable. John McCain understands that those without prior group coverage and those with pre-existing conditions have the most difficulty on the individual market, and we need to make sure they get the high-quality coverage they need.

John McCain Will Work With States To Establish A Guaranteed Access Plan. As President, John McCain will work with governors to develop a best practice model that states can follow - a Guaranteed Access Plan or GAP - that would reflect the best experience of the states to ensure these patients have access to health coverage. One approach would establish a nonprofit corporation that would contract with insurers to cover patients who have been denied insurance and could join with other state plans to enlarge pools and lower overhead costs. There would be reasonable limits on premiums, and assistance would be available for Americans below a certain income level.

I understand many people would like to keep things just the way they are w/ their employer tax free plans, but it is an untenable situation. Costs are growing exponentially, and not just because of the aging population and not just because of new expensive technology. They are growing because the health care receiver doesn't pay the provider. That has parallels with the subprime problem at hand: bundled and resold mortgages where the mortgage buyer down the line didn't actually know what it was worth. So either we fix the cost problem or as masses of people fall off unaffordable plans the government will be forced to nationalize the whole thing. Choose your poison.

Edit: Health Affairs came out this month w/ an eval of both plans: McCain will cut health costs, Obama will drive them up, Obama will get more people covered.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Interesting on CNN, with a group of "undecided' voters in Ohio, 64% gave the debate to Obama.

I was just watching the debate again on CNN with the dynamic + or - responses shown. It appears that the Independents and the Democrats were trending the same more than not. The gap between the Dems and Inds is almost always smaller than the gap between the Reps and Inds. And the moment McCain mentioned Palin - indirectly - the Independents dropped like a rock, just slightly behind the Dems.

 

[Evo]

No, he wants to cut us loose from the employer based tax break and the employer playing doctor. You get a personal tax break instead.

That's what McCain says. Here is what he's really planning.

Adrenaline had originally posted this, she's a doctor.

Does anyone else think this is a bad idea?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/opinion/16herbert.html?hp

A study coming out Tuesday from scholars at Columbia, Harvard, Purdue and Michigan projects that 20 million Americans who have employment-based health insurance would lose it under the McCain plan.



For starters, the McCain health plan would treat employer-paid health benefits as income that employees would have to pay taxes on.

“It means your employer is going to have to make an estimate on how much the employer is paying for health insurance on your behalf, and you are going to have to pay taxes on that money,” said Sherry Glied, an economist who chairs the Department of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

According to the study: “The McCain plan will force millions of Americans into the weakest segment of the private insurance system — the nongroup market — where cost-sharing is high, covered services are limited and people will lose access to benefits they have now.”

The net effect of the plan, the study said, “almost certainly will be to increase family costs for medical care.”

 

[Astronuc]

Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?

I agree with this assessment. When McCain talks about tax credits for health insurance, he doesn't seem to get it that those who can't afford health insurance also don't pay much in the way of taxes - because their incomes are too low.

There are about 47 million Americans without health insurance (I wonder if that includes illegal aliens and migrant workers).
http://www.nchc.org/facts/coverage.shtml

The emphasis needs to be on 'prevention' rather than treatment, which can be way too expensive.


Obama was correct on the privatization of Medicare/Medicaid. The private companies are making millions, and the elderly (based on family experience) are underserved or ill-served in some (many) cases.

 

[Gokul43201]

A significant Obamaward swing in some of the maps, following bailout week:

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265

 

[Astronuc]

I could see 55% of the popular vote for Obama and 45% for McCain, but I would not be surprised if it went 60/40 Obama/McCain.

 

[LowlyPion]

... but instead appeared condescending. That will appeal to McCain's base but apparently not many of the undecided voters.

Oh it was like tossing puppy kibble to the 101 Dalmatians. They were lapping that stuff up on Fox. But I think I could see the sad realizations in the eyes of the Fox Anchors that they don't really believe this, because McCain is like already used spit to the real conservatives, who really only have lust in their hearts for Palin, and Obama, even to them, didn't sound all that unPresidential.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

and Obama, even to them, didn't sound all that unPresidential.

I noticed that Obama was doing well with Republicans a number of times in the dynamic trending. And the pundits were saying exactly the same thing. Even to the Republican pundits, Obama looked Presidential.

 

[LowlyPion]

I noticed that Obama was doing well with Republicans a number of times in the dynamic trending. And the pundits were saying exactly the same thing. Even to the Republican pundits, Obama looked Presidential.

Coming on the heels as it did of the disastrous McCain ploy to dramatically return to Washington to pose for his portrait as the executive in charge, sabotaging the bailout that was on track to get things done, all in the name of partisan aggrandizement, McCain was already on the fast track to looking decidedly Un-Presidential before he even arrived in Oxford.

While he didn't drool or misplace any global hemisphere's in the debate, he looked to me more irascible and irritated - that the grand script the Republican handlers had plotted for his trajectory had gone awry - than he was engaged in the issues or inspiring to the Nation beyond of course to the Conservative base.

With so many divisive issues facing the country from Foreign policy to economic developments to energy security, Obama was the one that inspired some degree of confidence that he would make sound decisions, seeking compromise and consensus, in place of the ideologically popular choices that the current administration has employed.