What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[mheslep]

...The earmarks are a small part of the budget, so eliminating them will have little impact. Nevertheless, they should be eliminated...

The few billions or so that earmark elimination would save missus the larger point (perhaps that's where you were going w/ 'Nevertheless'.) Huge, wasteful programs like farm subsidies owe their continued existence to the ability of farm state law makers to buy off others, who otherwise might know better, with some earmarked relative pocket change. So instead of law makers looking to find common ground on what is best for the country, they're deal makers. If earmarks go some major budget savings are possible.

 

[Astronuc]

The few billions or so that earmark elimination would save missus the larger point (perhaps that's where you were going w/ 'Nevertheless'.) Huge, wasteful programs like farm subsidies owe their continued existence to the ability of farm state law makers to buy off others, who otherwise might know better, with some earmarked relative pocket change. So instead of law makers looking to find common ground on what is best for the country, they're deal makers. If earmarks go some major budget savings are possible.

I agree on the farm subsidies, or any subsidy or tax credit. I believe subsidies and tax breaks/credits are not covered under 'earmarks'.



http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04112008/profile2.html

Bush set to veto $300 billion farm bill
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/09/MN1110JA53.DTL

Farm Bill Passes U.S. House With Veto-Proof Majority (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=arTUJ7kiO2Es&refer=us
By Alan Bjerga

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House of Representatives passed a five-year, $289 billion farm bill with enough votes to override a presidential veto, making it more likely to become law.

The plan to boost food aid for the poor and keep U.S. farm subsidies largely intact was approved 318-106 in the House, more than the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto threatened yesterday by President George W. Bush. The president said the plan exceeds spending guidelines, distorts trade and subsidizes farmers as crop prices reach records.

. . .

McCain Opposes Farm Subsidy Bill
http://www.witn.com/politics/headlines/26338794.html

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Republican presidential candidate John McCain opposes the $300 billion farm bill and subsidies for ethanol, positions that both supporters and opponents say might cost him votes he needs in the upper Midwest this November.

His Democratic rival, Barack Obama, is making a more traditional regional pitch: He favors the farm bill approved by Congress this year and subsidies for the Midwest-based ethanol industry. McCain instead has promised to open new markets abroad for farmers to export their commodities.

In his position papers, McCain opposes farm subsidies only for those with incomes of more than $250,000 and a net worth above $2 million. But he's gone further on the stump.

"I don't support agricultural subsidies no matter where they are," McCain said at a recent appearance in Wisconsin. "The farm bill, $300 billion, is something America simply can't afford."

McCain later described the measure, which is very popular throughout the Midwest, as "a $300 billion, bloated, pork-barrel-laden bill" because of subsidies for industries like ethanol.

It's not a stand that pleases Republican Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa.

"I would not advise him to take that position," Grassley said. "For sure, he can't lose Missouri and that's in the upper Midwest. Could he lose Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin and still be elected president? Yes, but I wouldn't advise him to have that strategy."
. . . .

I agree with McCain.

Farm Bill's Subsidy Costs May Rise
Billions More Could Be Paid Through Little-Noticed Provision
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/20/AR2008052001581.html

A major new program in the recently enacted farm bill could increase taxpayer-financed payments to farmers by billions of dollars if high commodity prices decline to more typical levels, administration and congressional budget officials said yesterday.

The potential costs came to light as administration officials pored over details of the 673-page, $307 billion legislation. President Bush has promised to veto the measure, which he called "bloated." The House and Senate passed the bill by bipartisan margins large enough to override him unless dozens of lawmakers switch sides.
. . . .

Farm bill: making America fat and polluted, one subsidy at a time
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0423/p09s02-coop.html

San Francisco - At a time of soaring food prices, America's grocery bill is about to balloon. Congress is staggering toward completion of a nearly $300 billion farm bill that upholds subsidies for big farmers and food corporations – undermining vital efforts to make our food supply more healthful and sustainable, both environmentally and economically.

It's time to overhaul the government's approach to food and farming.

If the current measure passes (as it's slated to this Friday) Americans will shell out billions of dollars for farm subsidies that wreak havoc on our land and diets. These payments irresponsibly promote the consumption of cheap fatty foods, the depletion of soil and air through overuse of pesticides, and destructive farming practices.

Like farm bills past, this one also advances the removal of small farms, eroding the spirit and finances of rural communities across the US.

There is funding for conservation and nutrition programs, even allotments for innovative community food security projects that expand markets for small farmers while making food accessible to poor inner-city residents. But the subsidies for agribusiness – sometimes exceeding $15 billion a year – deepen the very problems these programs seek to remedy.

The core issue lies in the Commodity Title, which subsidizes large growers' production of corn, wheat, and other raw ingredients used in everything from food sweeteners to livestock feed to auto fuel. Supporting farmers to produce basic foodstuffs is a laudable policy, but today's subsidy system instead props up unsustainable growing practices and undermines the nation's health and its farming and food future.

Consider that 75 percent of subsidies go to a handful of commodities (mostly wheat, corn, and oilseeds) used as food additives, making highly processed junk food cheap – while fruits and vegetables and whole foods currently get no aid. Nearly 70 percent of farm subsidies go to the top 10 percent of the country's biggest growers – while America loses one farm every half an hour.
. . . .

Larger profitable ventures, especially those using wasteful practices, should not be receiving subsidies.

 

[mgb_phys]

Senator McConnell (kentucky) is looking nervous http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7690282.stm

he plays a tried and tested card, boasting of his ability to get funding for Kentucky projects, to "bring home the bacon". He warns that the loss of his hard-won clout in the US Senate would have huge financial consequences for the state.

"You've sent someone to Washington who has got to the top," he argued "and last year that meant $500m for the state of Kentucky."

What's the difference between a "pork-barrel project" and "bringing home the bacon"?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

What's the difference between a "pork-barrel project" and "bringing home the bacon"?

Is it your State or not?

Palin was all for the bridge to nowhere as long as the Feds were paying for it.

 

[mheslep]

I agree on the farm subsidies, or any subsidy or tax credit. I believe subsidies and tax breaks/credits are not covered under 'earmarks'...

?? Correct. The theory is earmarks enable a subsidy prone legislature.

 

[Astronuc]

?? Correct. The theory is earmarks enable a subsidy prone legislature.

I was referring to the fact that earmarks are considered separate from subsidies and taxes credits/breaks/exemptions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earmark_(politics )

But then -

What's an Earmark? - http://www.slate.com/id/2139454/
No one knows for sure.

The U.S. government has earmarked $29 billion for pork-barrel projects this year*, according to a report released on Wednesday by Citizens Against Government Waste. The House appropriations committee provided its own numbers, which claim $17 billion worth of earmarks for 2006. What, exactly, is a congressional earmark?

No one can agree on the precise definition. In general, the word "earmark" refers to any element of a spending bill that allocates money for a very specific thing—a given project, say, or location, or institution. For example, if Congress passed a budget that gave a certain amount of money to the National Park Service as a whole, no one would consider it an earmark. But if Congress added a line to the budget specifying that some of that money must go toward the preservation of a single building—definitely an earmark.

* Congress to Spend Record $29 Bln on `Pork' Projects, Group Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=axS5RbjoqeI4&refer=us

So when John McCain is talking about ending 'earmarks' or 'pork barrel' spending, is he actually including subsidies, like those in the farm bill (and other bills), and tax breaks/credits/exemptions. If McCain is only referring to those things which Congress consider 'earmarks', then that will have not significant impact on the budget or deficit, but virtue of the fact the $30 billion is 1% of $3 trillion, or $3000 billion, which is approximately the proposed budget of fiscal 2009.

If McCain is planning to eliminate subsidies, then that will have a dramatic effect (assuming he becomes president)!

 

[OrbitalPower]

"Jonathan Alter: Anytime you build a road, anytime you build a school, anytime you try to create jobs, anytime you provide social security, you are redistributing wealth. And by the way, if we can redistribute wealth to greedy bankers, why can't we redistribute some to needy bankers."

Is obama like FDR? Alter says yes:

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/189055/october-23-2008/jonathan-alter

 

[mgb_phys]

It would be cheaper to target the pork barrelling a bit more effectively.
California is never going to vote republican - so there is no point in sending any defence contracts there, similairly Texas isn't going to vote democrat if you build another Nasa HQ.
So you only need to pork barrel (sorry invest in under-resourced areas) in a few select marginal states - and even then only just in the run up to an election. You don't even have to acually deliver as long as the promises sound convincing.

 

[LowlyPion]

I think McCain is making a mistake in his current message in Dayton today.

He is calling for an even bigger military.

Bush has nearly destroyed the economy and undermined our hopes of being able to support the current military. The appeal to increase our combat presence seems particularly misguided.

I think we need to solve world problems not labor under the hubris to think we can smash them flat like a bully and pretend it's a solution. We cannot hope to support more Bush style adventurism with the shredded economic base that is becoming Bush's legacy.

 

[turbo]

McCain's family history, and indeed most of his personal history is rooted in the military, and he shrouds himself in that. It is no wonder that he wants a larger military - it's the only solution that he sees for "problems" in his black-and-white world. It would be cheaper to triple the size and the budget of our diplomatic corps and set them to work forging stronger alliances with other countries instead of trying to push them around with our weapons.

 

[Astronuc]

I think McCain is making a mistake in his current message in Dayton today.

He is calling for an even bigger military.

What about the 10's of thousands of mercenaries hired by the US government?

Bush has nearly destroyed the economy and undermined our hopes of being able to support the current military. The appeal to increase our combat presence seems particularly misguided.

In all fairness to Bush, he had a lot of help from the two-party congress. Bush didn't do this alone.

And there is tremendous culpability in the financial industry.

 

[LowlyPion]

In all fairness to Bush, he had a lot of help from the two-party congress. Bush didn't do this alone.

Forget being fair to Bush. He has stood for deregulation. He has enabled this unregulated Wall Street greed. He has stood for tax reduction. He has stood for fiscal irresponsibility. Those were his budgets. His deficits. His responsibility. That history would judge him harshly is no less than what he deserves.

The theory is that he is supposed lead. In that he has failed to avert the country from marching toward an abyss of economic chaos. He can't retire to Crawford soon enough I should think.

 

[mgb_phys]

He is calling for an even bigger military.

Bush has nearly destroyed the economy and undermined our hopes of being able to support the current military.

Wasn't that the lesson from winning the cold war?
Huge out of control military spending -> state goes bust -> privatise the banks -> become oil rich capitalists.

 

[mheslep]

Forget being fair to Bush. ...

It has nothing to do with being fair to Bush. It's about going forward, and not echoing a revisionist history which must lead to an unwise policy for who ever is in power.

 

[Astronuc]

It has nothing to do with being fair to Bush. It's about going forward, and not echoing a revisionist history which must lead to an unwise policy for who ever is in power.

True, but the point I wish to make is - congress (including both parties) has to change its (their) ways too!

 

[LowlyPion]

True, but the point I wish to make is - congress (including both parties) has to change its (their) ways too!

I don't disagree with that. My opinion is that's Obama's agenda is to engage Congress in doing the right thing. I have no confidence that McCain would offer anything, but continued bellicosity in foreign affairs and disastrous lack of focus in addressing meaningful domestic change.

 

[Astronuc]

I don't disagree with that. My opinion is that's Obama's agenda is to engage Congress in doing the right thing. I have no confidence that McCain would offer anything, but continued bellicosity in foreign affairs and disastrous lack of focus in addressing meaningful domestic change.

I hope Obama will challenge congress.

I'm not sure that McCain would continue the same path as Bush.


I very curious in either case to see who will be Secretaries of State, Defense, and NS Advisor, and who will become Sec's of Treasury and Commerce. Will Gates stay on?


Needless to say, there is much at stake. The next president will get a Double Whammy from an economy in crisis and a two unfinished wars.

Interesting perspective from Republican consultant, Ed Rollins:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/26/rollins.historic/index.html

. . . .

Guided by his political guru, Karl Rove, it was Bush II's ambition to make the Republican Party the majority party for decades to come. He and Karl wanted to create a political realignment that would marginalize Democrats for at least a generation and maybe more.

Not satisfied to change only American politics, Bush and his neo-con advisers, led by Dick Cheney, wanted to use American military might to spread democracy to places that had been led only by tribal councils and ruthless dictators.

If Bush had accomplished these goals, he truly would have been a historic president much like his newfound hero Harry Truman. But his failures were unimaginable. W will go down in history, all right.

He will leave office with the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern times and will be judged as a catastrophic failure who destroyed his party, left his successor with two unpopular, unfinished wars and left the country in the worst economic condition in nearly eight decades. That's not even counting the Bush administration's inadequate response to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath.

. . . .

 

[LowlyPion]

Not wanting to start another thread just for this:

Jury finds Stevens guilty on all counts

Anchorage Daily News

Published: October 27th, 2008 12:03 PM
Last Modified: October 27th, 2008 12:03 PM

WASHINGTON - A jury has found Sen. Ted Stevens guilty of lying on his financial disclosure forms.

I suppose then that Alaska will have a Democratic Senator with the incumbent a convicted felon?

 

[mheslep]

True, but the point I wish to make is - congress (including both parties) has to change its (their) ways too!

Yes I understood, and agree.

 

[LowlyPion]

Of minor note since it was only big talk apparently not acted on:

ATF disrupts skinhead plot to assassinate Obama
By LARA JAKES JORDAN, Associated Press Writer Lara Jakes Jordan, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON – Federal agents have broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree, the ATF said Monday.

In court records unsealed Monday, federal agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target a predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads. Agents said the skinheads did not identify the school by name.

Jim Cavanaugh, special agent in charge of the Nashville field office for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the two men planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are symbolic in the white supremacist community.

The men also sought to go on a national killing spree, with Obama as its final target, Cavanaugh told The Associated Press.

"They said that would be their last, final act — that they would attempt to kill Sen. Obama," Cavanaugh said. "They didn't believe they would be able to do it, but that they would get killed trying."

An Obama spokeswoman traveling with the senator in Pennsylvania had no immediate comment.

The men, Daniel Cowart, 20, of Bells, Tenn., and Paul Schlesselman 18, of West Helena, Ark., are being held without bond. Agents seized a rifle, a sawed-off shotgun and three pistols from the men when they were arrested. Authorities alleged the two men were preparing to break into a gun shop to steal more.

Attorney Joe Byrd, who has been hired to represent Cowart, did not immediately return a call seeking comment Monday.

Cowart and Schlesselman are charged with possessing an unregistered firearm, conspiring to steal firearms from a federally licensed gun dealer, and threatening a candidate for president.

The investigation is continuing, and more charges are possible, Cavanaugh said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081027/ap_on_el_pr/skinhead_plot
FYI:

14/88: Common white supremacist code. 14 stands for the "14 words" slogan coined by David Lane, who is serving a 190-year sentence for his part in the assassination of a Jewish talk show host: "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children." 88 means "Heil Hitler," as H is the eighth letter of the alphabet.

http://www.splcenter.org/intel/intelreport/article.jsp?sid=384

 

[LowlyPion]

The last week of the campaign has arrived:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3IAjphhw6E

Break out the hate ads.

 

[Astronuc]

It is interesting to compare the map of senate races with that of the presidential nominees.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/congress/senate.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

 

[LowlyPion]

It is interesting to compare the map of senate races with that of the presidential nominees.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/congress/senate.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

I think Liddy Dole is already gone.

Stevens is probably gone in Alaska with his conviction today.

The Democrats will need Georgia or Maine it seems to get to 60 as I suspect they are less likely than getting Franken in Minn or Merkley in OR or Shaheen in NH.

From my point of view though - feeling a little bit in a vindictive mood - I'd like to see Lindsay Graham get the boot in SC for palling around with McCain this whole election cycle, though I doubt that will happen.

 

[turbo]

Unfortunately, Susan Collins (R. ME) is probably safe. There are a lot of old people who will vote for her for the sake of continuity, and she has become a chameleon. Where she once wore bright red dresses or suits in all her ads, she has been wearing a LOT of blue and other dark colors. Her ads regularly use the word "independent" to describe her despite the fact that she has given Bush everything he has asked for. She even bowed out of the Republican convention, so as not to get tied to McCain or Bush.

Tom Allen is a good candidate, but he's going to have a hard time beating the incumbent.

 

[rootX]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7694254.stm

"

Jim Cavanaugh, special agent in charge of the Nashville field office of the ATF, told AP that the two men had planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are symbolic in the white supremacist community.

Mr Cavanaugh said the men had sought to go on a national killing spree, with Mr Obama as its final target.

"

I think they were way too stupid to perform any massacre.

 

[LowlyPion]

I think they were way too stupid to perform any massacre.

As the account has unfolded, I think the only people at greatest risk from them is them.

 

[LowlyPion]

Schism:

Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Senior Republicans believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat which will hand Barack Obama more political power than any president in a generation.
... "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

The Republican Party is going to look a lot smaller I think. I read elsewhere that it has been Romney staffers that have been leaking stuff about Palin to sabotage her rise. That means the party is going to be pretty much Balkanized moving forward.

I guess they are all saying thanks to George Bush.

 

[jal]

The following is only a small extract of some very good points. Go read the rest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Senior Republicans believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat which will hand Barack Obama more political power than any president in a generation.

-------
Note:
The Canadians do not like a minority gov. and they went to the poll to try to get a majority. They could not get it.
A minority gov. ties up the passing of laws and causes unwanted compromises.
-----------

Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy".
He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"
Mr Frum thinks that Mrs Palin's brand of cultural conservatism appeals only to a dwindling number of voters.
He said: "She emerges from this election as the probable frontrunner for the 2012 nomination. Her supporters vastly outnumber her critics. But it will be extremely difficult for her to win the presidency."

Somebody is dreaming in color if they think that Palin has the financial means to jump ahead of better candidates who have put in years in politics building their own network for a chance to get to be president.
She has no money and no support.
She has given a "negative image" to women who had inspirations. McCain did a disfavour to all women by chosing Palin.

 

[LowlyPion]

The following is only a small extract of some very good points. Go read the rest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

-------
Note:
The Canadians do not like a minority gov. and they went to the poll to try to get a majority. They could not get it.
A minority gov. ties up the passing of laws and causes unwanted compromises.
-----------

Somebody is dreaming in color if they think that Palin has the financial means to jump ahead of better candidates who have put in years in politics building their own network for a chance to get to be president.
She has no money and no support.
She has given a "negative image" to women who had inspirations. McCain did a disfavour to all women by chosing Palin.

I think this is the pinnacle of what will be her career. She is surely the reason for this polarizing campaign. And her competence is a real question. Being isolated in Alaska out of the mainstream, she will not likely be getting any more useful experience from just looking at Russia.

She will be another Dan Quayle. And in 4 years under Obama who's to know what the world will look like. It's not likely he will have done worse than Bush. I rather think this election is for 8 years anyway.

 

[Astronuc]

I think Palin's supporters are primarily far right fringe in the GOP. She'd probably to well in parts of the south and east below the Mason-Dixon line, in Texas, and parts of the west.

Her attacks on business want help her much elsewhere.

Her divisiveness and disparagement of the larger general population make her unfit for national office - not to mention her patronage system in Alaska's state government.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I think this is the pinnacle of what will be her career. She is surely the reason for this polarizing campaign. And her competence is a real question. Being isolated in Alaska out of the mainstream, she will not likely be getting any more useful experience from just looking at Russia.

She will be another Dan Quayle. And in 4 years under Obama who's to know what the world will look like. It's not likely he will have done worse than Bush. I rather think this election is for 8 years anyway.

I see two possible paths: Either we will continue to elect incompetent tricksters based on religious bias, fear, and morality plays, or, the internet, and the relentless microscope of the media will expose these paper tigers for their true nature, and we will start electing people like Obama. In the former case, I see fascism taking a strong hold, and for the course of my life, all hope is lost. In the latter case, the so called "conservative party" will slowly dissociate from the extremists and return to respectability - and Sarah Palin will be remembered for a skit on SNL.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Since the Republicans are now accusing Obama of promoting socialism, if he is elected, clearly we should take this as a national mandate for socialism.



...but, by definition, Bush is the socialist President, and McCain supported Bush 90% of the time. I am so confused.

 

[phoenixy]

...but, by definition, Bush is the socialist President, and McCain supported Bush 90% of the time. I am so confused.

My advice is to run Fox in the background so you can practice and come to appreciate the beauty of Cognitive Dissonance. Once the channel channels voice of the lord through your body, mortal logic will no longer get in your way.


Related news, battleground of Indiana

Dozens Of Call Center Workers Walk Off Job In Protest Rather Than Read McCain Script Attacking Obama

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/dozens_of_call_center_workers.php

After another day filled with attacks, conviction, corruption, it feels nice toning to story like this. But then again these people clearly hate money. Fake Americans and definitely socialists I tell you.

 

[BobG]

So, does either candidate care about you personally during this last week of the campaign?

They care about me (I scored 82 on the swing voter guage). They'd care about me more if I went to a Protestant church (White, college educated Protestants from Colorado score 100 on the scale).

Of course, you can overdo that education thing. If you have a post-graduate degree, probably neither candidate will care much about you this last week.

If you're from Idaho, neither candidate even knows you exist.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

So, does either candidate care about you personally during this last week of the campaign?

They care about me (I scored 82 on the swing voter guage). They'd care about me more if I went to a Protestant church (White, college educated Protestants from Colorado score 100 on the scale).

Of course, you can overdo that education thing. If you have a post-graduate degree, probably neither candidate will care much about you this last week.

If you're from Idaho, neither candidate even knows you exist.

That's as compelling a reason to move to Idaho as I've ever heard. Too bad it's a fictional place.