What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[Evo]

Wow, I am a 96 on the swing voter guage. Of course that was selecting Catholic. I am Roman Catholic, but I don't attend Mass, although I still have my scapular so I will not suffer the eternal fires of Hell. Got to love Catholicism, you can buy your way into heaven at the local church store.

 

[LowlyPion]

That's as compelling a reason to move to Idaho as I've ever heard. Too bad it's a fictional place.

Careful. They are discovering people exist there now too.

It seems that the polls in Montana have indicated that Obama is within 4 points there. The Republicans will be airing ads there to shore up their support.

Montana a battleground state? Who would have thought?

 

[Gokul43201]

Into the final week - this is clearly Obama's race to lose. The numbers seem to be settling in the regime of a nearly 2:1 electoral outcome. Electoral Vote, which uses only the single latest poll numbers (and is hence susceptible to biggest fluctuations than the numbers generated from composites) for each state is showing MO, ND and MT in white (toss-up).

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265 
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163  |  364/174    273/265 
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158  |  364/174    273/265 
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155  |  369/169    273/265
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157  |  364/174    273/265
10/28   306/157  375/163  277/174  364/157    306/142   306/142  |  375/163    273/265

Market Update:

               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135
Oct 28     $87.6    $12.2      0.860   0.130

PS: I've given up any hope that USAtlas cares to update their projection. I will purge that column from subsequent poll updates.

 

[Gokul43201]

It seems that the polls in Montana have indicated that Obama is within 4 points there. The Republicans will be airing ads there to shore up their support.

Montana a battleground state? Who would have thought?

Anyone watching the polls closely over the last 6 months, perhaps!

Rasmussen has a poll out today that should have McCain's new staff rethinking some of the states they've been taking for granted. According to the poll, Obama leads McCain by 5 points in Montana. That's a state that Bush won by 20% and 25%. But it's also a state that Clinton won narrowly in '92 and lost in '96.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/montana/toplines_montana_presidential_election_july_1_2008

 

[LowlyPion]

McCain hires Obama supporters.

Republicans hire mercenaries for ground war against Barack Obama
Tom Baldwin in Des Moines, Iowa

Two women walk out of John McCain’s Mid-West headquarters carrying a pile of voter canvassing sheets, one sports a baseball hat declaring her a “team leader” of the Republican campaign. And both are black — an unusual sight in an election where Barack Obama’s support among African Americans is almost monolithic.

Are they volunteers? They look at each other sheepishly. “Not exactly,” replies one. “We work for an employment agency,” says the other. Who are they voting for? “I don’t want to say,” says the first woman. “Obama — of course!” whispers the braver of the pair.

They laugh, then look over their shoulders at the office behind them. “Don’t give him your name, he’ll put it in the paper,” says the cautious one, explaining that they cannot afford to lose their $10-an-hour (£6) jobs. “This is embarrassing. We’re doing this because we have to live. At least none of our friends can see us. We’re from Chicago — like Obama.”

Republicans have had to hire mercenaries for this ground war. And, if the experience outside the McCain headquarters was any guide, they may not all be shooting in the same direction.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5019585.ece

 

[turbo]

There is a flier circulating in VA that claims that due to projected heavy voter turnout, Republicans will vote on Nov 4 and Democrats on Nov 5.

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/phony-flier-says-virginians-vote-different-days

 

[mgb_phys]

There is a flier circulating in VA that claims that due to projected heavy voter turnout, Republicans will vote on Nov 4 and Democrats on Nov 5.

And on current polls McCain would still lose!

 

[LowlyPion]

There is a flier circulating in VA that claims that due to projected heavy voter turnout, Republicans will vote on Nov 4 and Democrats on Nov 5.

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/phony-flier-says-virginians-vote-different-days

At this point that is just a joke. They pulled dirty trick 8 years ago at least that I remember.

 

[LowlyPion]

Lawsuit seeking release of McCain records on auto accident from 1964. The Navy is stonewalling apparently. Hmmmm. I wonder why they would do that so close to an election if there is nothing to hide? That's such a mavericky thing to be doing.

http://www.courthousenews.com/2008/10/20/McCainAccident.pdf

 

[BobG]

Lawsuit seeking release of McCain records on auto accident from 1964. The Navy is stonewalling apparently. Hmmmm. I wonder why they would do that so close to an election if there is nothing to hide? That's such a mavericky thing to be doing.

http://www.courthousenews.com/2008/10/20/McCainAccident.pdf

Why who would do what?

Why someone would think medical records from a 44-year-ago car accident could possibly be relevant to next week's election?

Or why the Navy won't release information covered by the personal privacy act (1974)?

Edit: FOIA Exemption 6 (and 7)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I still have my scapular

Heh, I never had one. Good Catholics didn't need one.

 

[Astronuc]

"Exurbs" emerge as battleground in race
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081028/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_exurbs

HENDERSON, Nev./WASHINGTON (Reuters) – First came the foreclosure crisis. Next, gas prices went through the roof. Now, beleaguered Americans living on the edge of metropolitan areas face a third plague: politicians.

I can't wait until Wednesday morning next week. I just want it over already.


In the meantime - don't get weird.

 

[Astronuc]

Why McCain is getting hosed in the press?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081028/pl_politico/14982

Politico analyzes the question.

. . . .
Here goes anyway.

There have been moments in the general election when the one-sidedness of our site — when nearly every story was some variation on how poorly McCain was doing or how well Barack Obama was faring — has made us cringe.

As it happens, McCain’s campaign is going quite poorly and Obama’s is going well. Imposing artificial balance on this reality would be a bias of its own.

. . . .

 

[LowlyPion]

Why who would do what?

Why someone would think medical records from a 44-year-ago car accident could possibly be relevant to next week's election?

Or why the Navy won't release information covered by the personal privacy act (1974)?

Edit: FOIA Exemption 6 (and 7)

I think the question arose in reference to the circumstances of the accident itself and various accounts of it. I presume blood alcohol could be an interest to the inquiry.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Schism:

Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Senior Republicans believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat which will hand Barack Obama more political power than any president in a generation.

... "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"

There goes George Will, Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, and dozens of other prominent Republicans. Someone needs to tell the extremists that they are standing alone in quicksand.

Sarah Palin: The end of the road to nowhere.

 

[LowlyPion]

There goes George Will, Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, and dozens of other prominent Republicans. Someone needs to tell the extremists that they are standing alone in quicksand.

The moderate Republicans may find a more compatible home with Democrats. What the Far Right may ultimately discover is that while the country is centrist, the Far right alone is not a sufficient minority that can stand alone as an effective balance. Their co-opting of the Republican Party will have come at the price of the unintended consequence that now they may have the party, but no one else wants to really be a part.

Now what?

 

[turbo]

There goes George Will, Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, and dozens of other prominent Republicans. Someone needs to tell the extremists that they are standing alone in quicksand.

The Republicans have set up circular firing squads. McCain claimed that the RNC was behind the Palin wardrobe fiasco, and the RNC has claimed that the McCain campaign asked them to finance the wardrobe out of coordinated funds. McCain aides are taking pot-shots at Palin in "not for attribution" statements and Palin apparently has few handlers that she actually will listen to. Reportedly, resumes are flying, as RNC and McCain staffers try to re-align themselves and get some sort of job lined up post-election.

I do not want to see the GOP gutted, because the Democrats need somebody to balance them and moderate any excesses, but it appears that the Republican party will suffer severe damage from this campaign. Even though the Dems might not build the 60-vote Senate majority they want so badly, the Republicans might be fractured badly enough to prevent their party leadership from enforcing compliance on legislation that they oppose. Certainly, there must be some kind of shake-up between the true conservatives (so rare) left in the GOP and the neo-cons who have been calling the shots for the last couple of decades.

 

[mgb_phys]

It's beginning to look like a remake of the British version that's been running for the last 10years.
And like most US remakes it will have better looking actors, more impressive special effects but fewer jokes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

...In the past week, aides to the Arizona senator have anonymously briefed reporters against Mrs Palin, describing the Alaska governor as a “diva”. Yesterday, however, a new and far harsher perjorative emerged: one called her a “whack job”, a term usually reserved for people who are dangerously unbalanced...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5032745.ece

 

[Evo]

This article mentions a McCain crowd of 5,000 (my work offices have 15,000 people at this site) a person changing a flat tire here could draw a crowd of 5,000. Obama has been pulling crowds of 100,000 (MO & CO each this last week). What is the largest crowd McCain has been able to pull since he got the Republican nod? (Republican Convention doesn't count)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The Republicans have set up circular firing squads. McCain claimed that the RNC was behind the Palin wardrobe fiasco, and the RNC has claimed that the McCain campaign asked them to finance the wardrobe out of coordinated funds. McCain aides are taking pot-shots at Palin in "not for attribution" statements and Palin apparently has few handlers that she actually will listen to. Reportedly, resumes are flying, as RNC and McCain staffers try to re-align themselves and get some sort of job lined up post-election.

I do not want to see the GOP gutted, because the Democrats need somebody to balance them and moderate any excesses, but it appears that the Republican party will suffer severe damage from this campaign. Even though the Dems might not build the 60-vote Senate majority they want so badly, the Republicans might be fractured badly enough to prevent their party leadership from enforcing compliance on legislation that they oppose. Certainly, there must be some kind of shake-up between the true conservatives (so rare) left in the GOP and the neo-cons who have been calling the shots for the last couple of decades.

I was listening an analyst from the Brookings Institute talk about this. He pointed out that the new Democrats are not wild-eyed lefties. Many come from conservative districts and States; and that won't change just because Obama gets elected. They will still have to answer to a conservative constituency.

I do have to laugh when REPUBLICANS misuse the balance of power concept wrt to parties, when THEY have sponsored the greatest abuse of power by the Executive Branch, and the least balanced government in modern history.

There is nothing in the Constitution suggesting that a term or two of one-party rule is a failure of the balance of power concept. In fact, a throw-the-bums-out election is exactly what the Constitution demands!

 

[turbo]

It seem that as people are polled, those who identify themselves as early voters and who have already voted are giving Obama a 19-point lead, and that same 19 points holds when people say that they are going to vote early, but haven't yet.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It seem that as people are polled, those who identify themselves as early voters and who have already voted are giving Obama a 19-point lead, and that same 19 points holds when people say that they are going to vote early, but haven't yet.

If we are assuming that Palin has already fired-up the base... this could get interesting. Where are they? Perhaps they are standing alone in quicksand.

 

[turbo]

Here's a link to the Pew report.
http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines

 

[BobG]

Why who would do what?

Why someone would think medical records from a 44-year-ago car accident could possibly be relevant to next week's election?

Or why the Navy won't release information covered by the personal privacy act (1974)?

Edit: FOIA Exemption 6 (and 7)

I think the question arose in reference to the circumstances of the accident itself and various accounts of it. I presume blood alcohol could be an interest to the inquiry.

A DUI would be part of the public record. The magazine wouldn't need medical records for that.

I think the reason for the magazine trying to expedite the request had more to do with the article increasing magazine sales if published before the election and being worthless if published after the election. It had to be completed quickly to have any worth.

Their argument that the Navy had been concealing the truth for 44 years by failing to release information that hadn't been requested until about a month ago was a little thin. I also didn't see that they'd really provided any reason it would be critical for the public to know whether government officials were performing their duties in accordance with the law 44 years ago.

Obviously, the magazine wanted personal info on McCain and couldn't care less about the Navy officials, hospital personnel, or local law enforcement officials, but the release of personal information without a good justification is exactly what the law is supposed to prevent. The justification, "If a person has nothing to hide, then having someone pry into his personal records (or phone calls or e-mails) shouldn't scare him" doesn't fly with most people concerned about civil liberties.

 

[LowlyPion]

This article mentions a McCain crowd of 5,000 (my work offices have 15,000 people at this site) a person changing a flat tire here could draw a crowd of 5,000. Obama has been pulling crowds of 100,000 (MO & CO each this last week). What is the largest crowd McCain has been able to pull since he got the Republican nod? (Republican Convention doesn't count)

I think this is why his events are so dark ... so you can't see the back rows of empty seats. They had a stump session in Hershey PA today and it was dark all around the stage. Later they had a reporter there and the lights were up while they broke down the stage and the building was much larger than they showed on TV. I seriously question that they are turning anyone away and are really just desperate to make him look like he's popular in some way.

 

[LowlyPion]

A DUI would be part of the public record. The magazine wouldn't need medical records for that.

I think the reason for the magazine trying to expedite the request had more to do with the article increasing magazine sales if published before the election and being worthless if published after the election. It had to be completed quickly to have any worth.

Their argument that the Navy had been concealing the truth for 44 years by failing to release information that hadn't been requested until about a month ago was a little thin. I also didn't see that they'd really provided any reason it would be critical for the public to know whether government officials were performing their duties in accordance with the law 44 years ago.

Obviously, the magazine wanted personal info on McCain and couldn't care less about the Navy officials, hospital personnel, or local law enforcement officials, but the release of personal information without a good justification is exactly what the law is supposed to prevent. The justification, "If a person has nothing to hide, then having someone pry into his personal records (or phone calls or e-mails) shouldn't scare him" doesn't fly with most people concerned about civil liberties.

I believe they started some month or so ago so it's not totally something they sprung at the last minute. But as to personal information, health information, I must say that public figures that seek the Presidency don't exactly have the same rights to privacy as those that have not sought the limelight. In asking to be trusted and govern they have certain responsibilities to be honest and open especially when there is such a disturbingly incompetent VP candidate standing on the podium that would represent a bad outcome for the country and not the deal they would make if they were to know now.

That said though I do tend to agree that there is not likely much there unless there was some son of privilege event that occasioned a cover-up at the time at least as far as the public record goes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The latest poll in Alaska only gives the Palin-McCain ticket an 11 point lead. This is down from a 19% advantage in early Sept., according to the same polling organization - the well named Ivan Moore Res.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ak/alaska_mccain_vs_obama-640.html

The poll only had a field of 500 samples, but that represents about 0.1% of the State...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

He Said What? Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee is know for being a friendly, mild-mannered guy. But the Republican-turned-Independent's good nature isn't because he lacks the tough-talk ammo, as he proved Tuesday while promoting his latest book, "Against the Tide: How a Compliant Congress Empowered a Reckless President," at the New America Foundation.
Chafee (a supporter of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama) was discussing how GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's speech at the recent Republican National Convention energized the party's base. While he said it was impressive, Chafee thinks the Alaska governor also energized the left, as Democrats were outraged "to see this cocky whacko up there."

Chafee's comment drew gasps from the audience, who apparently were not expecting to hear such relatively feisty language from the normally genteel former Senator. It even shocked event moderator Steve Clemons, who responded, "Did you just say 'cocky whacko'?"

Chafee just smiled.

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/09/chafee_said_wha/

 

[Astronuc]

What Does Patriotism Look Like?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvnFz-WZVZo

At 49:35 in the video, Chafee is talking about McCain's voting record in the Senate, and how McCain bucked against the administration. Chafee said he was great on the environment, and voted against the Bush tax cut bill in 2001. With respect to foreign issues, e.g. Iraq, Chafee describes McCain as beligerent and aggressive (50:47). At 53:17, Chafee responds to the question about Palin.

There's an interesting discussion at 56:00 onward regarding the GOP, and the fact that it has been hi-jacked by the right. The host, Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation, seems to believe that the far right will wreck the GOP at which point the true conservatives, Rockefeller Republicans, will take back the party.

Chafee is currently at the Watson Institute at Brown University.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I was struck by the misleading and inane tactics and language used in this pro McCain commercial currently running in Oregon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNRpt3UIZV8

 

[OrbitalPower]

I doubt McCain will lose either Alaska or Arizona, I'm just glad most Americans are waking up and realizing that McCain like policies don't work, which in some ways seem even more extreme than George Bush's. Remember, Reagan's policies came with a lot of baggage as well, including economics and foreign policy, and yet his Vice President became president, although at least Bush I was somewhat wise on economics. But that isn't happening this year.

I'm glad that the "joe the plumber" type Americans are losing for once with their rhetoric is only appealing to the nutty base:

C5XPK02XMi0[/youtube] Notice how...umbers inane and absolutely asinine comments.

 

[LightbulbSun]

I was struck by the misleading and inane tactics and language used in this pro McCain commercial currently running in Oregon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNRpt3UIZV8

I love how that dude says "they say they know, but they don't." As if multiple mansion owner John McCain knows better.

 

[LightbulbSun]

Even though Fox News put that guy on to really just spread the rhetoric, even the host was baffled by Joe the Plumbers inane and absolutely asinine comments.

You know news stations are going down the tubes when they use Joe the Plumber for political analysis. It's funny, I felt like I was talking to Joe the Plumber the other day because someone said "Obama being president means the death of Israel."

 

[Astronuc]

You know news stations are going down the tubes when they use Joe the Plumber for political analysis. It's funny, I felt like I was talking to Joe the Plumber the other day because someone said "Obama being president means the death of Israel."

I'm impressed with Shepard Smith and his challenge to Wurzelbacher.

There's the headline on the Huffington Post, "Fox's Shepard Smith Forced To Offer Disclaimer After Joe The Plumber Interview," which I don't see as the case. Smith allowed Wurzelbacher to state his claim, challenged it, and then disputed it. McCain's campaign were the ones making the disclaimer. Maybe Fox is getting some credibility back!

Transcript of exchange between Smith and Wurzelbacher - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/foxs-shepard-smith-forced_n_138674.html

At the end Smith says, "I just want to make this 100 percent perfectly clear -- Barack Obama has said and demonstrated repeatedly that Israel will always be a friend of the United States, no matter what happens once he becomes President of the United States. His words. The rest of it -- man...some things--it just gets frightening sometimes."

Cheers to Shepard Smith on that one!