What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[turbo]

But as the Republicans are saying now "It's not how big the crowds are. It's how they use them."

Was it good for you?

I have a friend of French-Canadian heritage who makes a self-deprecating joke:

Her: "Who are you going to please with that little thing?"
Him: "Me"

 

[LightbulbSun]

My god, McCain is so bad. Please don't disappoint me my fellow Americans. Please don't make me witness McCain winning on election night. America will cease to exist in my head if this happens. Don't die on me now America. Fire at least one neuron in your brain and pull the lever for Obama. That's all the thinking capacity you need for this decision. We're not asking you to do rocket science, but to think clearly for five seconds and to pull the lever for Obama. Do not let the sultry looks of Sarah Palin fool you. She espouses decaying and nonsensical values that would shake the core of America's values. She is anti-research and anti-freedom of speech. She's a fascist secretly in disguise. So I beg of you America to think clearly for five seconds on election night and to pull the damn lever for Obama!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I have a friend of French-Canadian heritage who makes a self-deprecating joke:

Her: "Who are you going to please with that little thing?"
Him: "Me"

Self-defecating humor.

McCain is in danger of losing Arizona! RCP has McCain ahead by only five points. They moved Az from solid, to leaning McCain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html

CNN shows McCain ahead by 7 in Az. They reported yesterday that GOP sponsored robocalls are now active in McCain's home State.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Re: Obama appointing Republicans to his cabinet. Apparently the idea is if the Democrats have 59 seats, you pick the a moderate Republican senator (who's least likely to do harm by being in your cabinet), who comes from a state with a Democratic governor. The senator accepts the promotion, especially considering he'll get nothing done in the next two years of the Senate anyway, and the governor replaces him with a Democrat, giving them a filibuster proof Senate. It's not always as bi-partisan as you think it is

 

[mgb_phys]

That well known example of the liberal print media - The Economist, has come out for Mr Obama.
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12516666

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Here is what The Economist had to say about McCain last year.

Mr McCain is such a familiar figure that it is easy to forget how remarkable he is. He fought heroically in Vietnam, spending more than five years as a prisoner-of-war, when many other politicians of his generation discovered, like Dick Cheney, that they had “other priorities”. He has repeatedly risked his political career by backing unpopular causes.

Mr McCain's qualifications extend beyond character. Take experience. His range of interests as a senator has been remarkable, extending from immigration to business regulation. He knows as much about foreign affairs and military issues as anybody in public life. Or take judgment. True, he has a reputation as a hothead. But he's a hothead who cools down. He does not nurse grudges or agonise about vast conspiracies like some of his colleagues in the Senate. He has also been right about some big issues. He was the first senior Republican to criticize George Bush for invading Iraq with too few troops, and the first to call for Donald Rumsfeld's sacking. He is one of the few Republicans to propose sensible policies on immigration and global warming.

http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?STORY_ID=10251179

Doggone liberal media.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I get it! The media is liberal if they support anyone but a Republican! I get it now!

Wheww, it never made sense before.

 

[LightbulbSun]

I get it! The media is liberal if they support anyone but a Republican! I get it now!

Wheww, it never made sense before.

Don't you realize that being liberal means you support the death of the world? Republicans don't want no stinkin public service. If you get shot in the leg, you pull yourself up by the bootstraps and carry on. What's with all of these handouts of sending people to the ER in situations like that? Now anyone can exploit the system! Someone will purposely shoot themselves in the leg just to get a free trip. It's backwards thinking I tell you!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Re: Obama appointing Republicans to his cabinet. Apparently the idea is if the Democrats have 59 seats, you pick the a moderate Republican senator (who's least likely to do harm by being in your cabinet), who comes from a state with a Democratic governor. The senator accepts the promotion, especially considering he'll get nothing done in the next two years of the Senate anyway, and the governor replaces him with a Democrat, giving them a filibuster proof Senate. It's not always as bi-partisan as you think it is

So then we can expect Obama to appoint only one R Senator from a State with a Dem Governer.

Is Powell a Senator? Hmmmm, your theory isn't looking good.

 

[Count Iblis]

McCain would probably appoint Joe the Plumber to his cabinet

 

[Astronuc]

Interesting piece on Obama and his views on the Constitution, and possible choices for Supreme Court Justices.

Law School Past Shapes Obama's View On Justices
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96337196
by Nina Totenberg

What The Founders Meant

Obama's book The Audacity of Hope devotes an entire chapter to the subject. In it, he confesses to having some sympathy for conservative Justice Antonin Scalia's view that the Constitution's language is perfectly clear on some matters and can be strictly applied. But in the end, Obama writes, much of the Constitution speaks in generalities that cannot tell us what the Founding Fathers would have thought about modern dilemmas: whether, for example, the National Security Agency's data mining is constitutional, or what freedom of speech means in the context of the Internet.

"Anyone like Justice Scalia looking to resolve our modern constitutional dispute through strict construction has one big problem," Obama writes. "The founders themselves disagreed profoundly, vehemently, on the meaning of their masterpiece."

The professorial Obama is on display in this chapter, refusing to provide simple answers or formulas, and rejecting so-called bright lines. "Its not just absolute power that the founders sought to guard against," he writes. "Implicit in its structure, in the very idea of ordered liberty, was a rejection of absolute truth — the infallibility of any idea or ideology, or theology, or 'ism', any tyrannical consistency that might lock future generations into a single, unalterable course."

Obama concludes the chapter by lauding the founders' end product: "The Constitution envisions a road map by which we marry passion to reason — the ideal of individual freedom to the demands of community. And the amazing thing is that it has worked."

Obama The Constitutionalist

University of Chicago law professor Cass Sunstein has known Obama since they both taught at the law school. Sunstein points out that we have not had a constitutional law specialist in the White House in an exceptionally long time — perhaps not since the early days of the republic.

Former Bush Associate White House Counsel Brad Berenson, who nearly 20 years ago worked with Obama as an editor at the Harvard Law Review, does not share Obama's politics. But Berenson recognizes that the Democrat [Obama] is far more knowledgeable than McCain when it comes to the courts. Berenson predicts that Obama's background in constitutional issues "may mean that a President Obama takes more personal interest and more of a personal hand in his judicial appointments than a President McCain would."
. . . .

 

[mgb_phys]

Here is what The Economist had to say about McCain last year. Doggone liberal media.

That was irony, The Economist is so conservative it makes the Wall St Journal look like the Socialist Worker. For TE to come out for anyone left of Cheney is a bit of shock.

 

[LowlyPion]

Interesting piece on Obama and his views on the Constitution, and possible choices for Supreme Court Justices.

Law School Past Shapes Obama's View On Justices
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96337196
by Nina Totenberg

But Berenson recognizes that the Democrat [Obama] is far more knowledgeable than McCain when it comes to the courts. Berenson predicts that Obama's background in constitutional issues "may mean that a President Obama takes more personal interest and more of a personal hand in his judicial appointments than a President McCain would."

I think this topic is discussed in the Interview on Rachel Maddow on MSNBC this evening. I heard him talk about this in an excerpt and it was exactly about this.

 

[LowlyPion]

That was irony, The Economist is so conservative it makes the Wall St Journal look like the Socialist Worker. For TE to come out for anyone left of Cheney is a bit of shock.

Especially after Sarah Palin claims that's what she reads - like she's ever cracked a cover page.

 

[phoenixy]

Breaking news: McCain campaigning for future presidential candidate of 2012, Sarah Palin

http://www.alternet.org/blogs/election08/105412/mccain_busses_in_4,000_school_kids_to_fill_crowd/

The most cringe-worthy political moment of the day, so far, came when Sen. John McCain called out for his new buddy Joe the Plumber to stand up at a rally in Ohio, only to be greeted with confused silence. Joe the Plumber wasn't there.


But that rally featured another embarrassing moment, one that illustrates a far more troubling dynamic for the Republican ticket. The McCain campaign actually had to bus in school kids from the surrounding area in order to fill the event. As reported by MSNBC:

A local school district official confirmed after the event that of the 6,000 people estimated by the fire marshal to be in attendance this morning, more than 4,000 were bused in from schools in the area. The entire 2,500-student Defiance School District was in attendance, the official said, in addition to at least three other schools from neighboring districts, one of which sent 14 buses.

McCain is really taking it home with these illegible voters. 4 years from now, they will be prep and ready to vote for Palin.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

this year it seems to me obama has been so universally appealing to ordinary people that he has shaken loose mounds of money never before dreamt of by democratic candidates.

I just received this email from the Obama campaign.

I'm the Chief Financial Officer for Barack Obama's campaign. I track the donations coming in and the expenses going out.

I asked for the opportunity to write to you directly so that I could try to explain what's happening right now.

This organization has thousands of employees and spends millions of dollars a day -- and at the moment we're doing it without a safety net.

Our spending plans have been stretched by John McCain's negative attacks and the overwhelming resources of the Republican National Committee.

As of October 15th, John McCain and the RNC together had nearly $20 million more in cash than the combined total of Obama for America and the DNC. And just this week, we're facing new and unexpected spending against us in Montana and West Virginia.

Your incredible generosity has gotten us this far. But right now we need your help more than ever to get this campaign across the finish line.

https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/RNCadvantage2?source=20081030_MM_D2

My team and I are working to stretch every dollar in order to keep as many paths to victory open as possible. But we need whatever help you can provide for this crucial final stretch.

Thank you,

MM

Marianne Markowitz
Chief Financial Officer
Obama for America

I did send more money, of course! I'll send blood if it would help. But even with Obama's incredible success in fund raising, it's hard to compete with old RNC money.

 

[mgb_phys]

Especially after Sarah Palin claims that's what she reads - like she's ever cracked a cover page.

Since it's published in London - please tell me she asked what language they speak over there!

 

[LowlyPion]

Since it's published in London - please tell me she asked what language they speak over there!

After the Katy Couric interview when she sputtered that she read whatever was put in front of her, the next day in the warm embrace of Fox's Carl Crawford he lobbed her a fat one where she said something like she was peeved at the question like in Alaska they don't get things to read so she was just being flip, but that of course she read things like The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal and The Economist.

Personally I'd be curious to know how many issues of the Economist are even delivered to Alaska, much less read by this ignorant Palin person. I found it offensive that she was so dishonest that she would stoop to lie about it. 5 kids and she's allegedly the Governor and she has time to read the Economist? Oh please. Lies. Lies. Damn Lies.

 

[LightbulbSun]

Another reason to vote for Obama: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywmlbzxQKXw

 

[OmCheeto]

Wisconsin has it too :)

I just sent mine in today. I voted for McCain.

I figured it out. The guy that I voted for, and who got the most votes in 2000, was ixnayed.
The guy I voted for in 2004 wasn't elected president either.

Duhhhh... Vote for the guy you don't want to win!
-------------------------------------
Ok... Really... My chad is hanging on Obama...

sorry to hide my real thoughts today behind faux signatory lines and sizes, but I'm really excited about all this change!

btw. my commodities broker said that if I wanted to play the market(now that it has been properly corrected) that I should get a sharebuilders.com account. I did that yesterday and will now invest some odd quantity of expendable cash into things I think will improve the planet (and my portfolio).

 

[mathwonk]

i may send obama more but not the weasally democratic senatorial campaign. their ads here are almost as bad as the republicans'.

i know the democrats will govern better, but still they should not lie and mislead to win.

unlike what huey long thought, the ends do not justify the means. (he excused his dishonest campaigns saying, "first you must take power, then you can do good.") this is a tempting way to justify bad behavior, but one must resist it.

 

[LowlyPion]

There is something seriously wrong with Fox.

They sent out a reporter and ambushed Rashid Khalidi. The poor fellow was trapped in an elevator with a woman possibly his wife and a child in a stroller while the reporter shoved a microphone at him and started spewing the Fox Right Wing rubbish at him, preventing the door from closing. It was as close to assault as you can get. I'd suggest Khalidi get a cease and desist against these nut balls.

Now Hannity claims he has a book written by Ayers and Bernadine Dorn back in 1974 that alleges a dedication to all political prisoners in the US and included on this list of dozens and dozens of names is Sirhan Sirhan. Then they followed up with Ann Coulter nearly screaming about what an outrage.

And now they have Dick Morris talking about all the young people being driven from Obama now by ... taxes? Oh give me a break. Their bald attempts at divisiveness is bordering on pathetic.

The Far Right must really be desperate.

 

[phoenixy]

GOP voter suppression shenanigans and law suits in swing states mostly ineffective

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/gop_voter_suppression_more_mis.php

A couple examples. The article has a lot more.

In Indiana, for instance, a Superior Court judge declined to support a GOP bid to shut down early voting centers in Democratic-leaning cities in Lake County, and the state Supreme Court chose not to immediately intervene.

In New Mexico, the state party held a press conference at which it released the names, and some personal information, of ten voters, almost all Hispanic, that it said had voted fraudulently in a Democratic primary in June. It was later established that they were all legitimate voters. The U.S. Department of Justice is now investigating reports by TPMmuckraker and others that a lawyer attached to the party sent a private investigator to the homes of some of these voters to question them about their voting status -- potentially violating federal voting laws.

 

[mgb_phys]

There is something seriously wrong with Fox.

In other news, bears have been found polluting in the woods and "Pope not a Hindu" shocker!

 

[LowlyPion]

Ken Duberstein, Former Reagan Chief of Staff, now on MSNBC agreeing with EagleBurger that Palin is not qualified to be President should the need arise.

Here is an earlier assessment Duberstein offered about the choice that McCain was yet to make - before picking Palin.

How could anyone close their eyes and think of Palin as he describes his ideas about the choice to be made?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIJDsuQJdmU

 

[Gokul43201]

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                              AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                
                                                                 
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster  Elec-Proj     
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191              349/189    
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180              338/200    
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180              338/200    
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177              338/200    
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188              306/232    
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177              311/227    
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214    298/240    
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147    338/200    
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157    298/240    
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191    264/274    
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176    273/265    
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179    278/260    
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219    273/265    
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174    273/265    
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174    273/265    
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163    364/174    
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158    364/174    
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155    369/169    
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157    364/174    
10/28   306/157  375/163  277/174  364/157    306/142   306/142    375/163    
10/31   311/142  353/185  291/163  364/171    338/142   311/142

Market Update:

               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135
Oct 28     $87.6    $12.2      0.860   0.130
Oct 31     $84.5    $16.6      0.847   0.154

Note: Election Projection's site appears to be down.

 

[turbo]

Reagan Chief-of-Staff Ken Duberstein is voting for Obama, and has publicly endorsed him.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/31/former-reagan-adviser-endorses-obama/

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN just moved North Dakota from leaning McCain, to undecided. La was changed from leaning, to safe for McCain, which seems odd to me given the recent polls.

Obama is now running commercials in Arizona!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Did you all see the excerpt of Obama on The Daily Show? Jon asked if he is worried that when it comes time to vote, he might not vote for himself - that the white guy in him might not let him vote for the black guy?

 

[turbo]

I just got a robo-call claiming that Obama will take money from tax-payers just like me, and give the money to people who pay no taxes. I don't know how I got on the call-list of people making over $250K/yr...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I just got a robo-call claiming that Obama will take money from tax-payers just like me, and give the money to people who pay no taxes. I don't know how I got on the call-list of people making over $250K/yr...

Heh, last year the Republicans called and informed me that I had won a national leadership award, and for only a couple of thousand bucks, I could attend a dinner with Bush!

I told him that it would cost much more than that for me to sit down with Bush.

 

[Astronuc]

Heh, last year the Republicans called and informed me that I had won a national leadership award, and for only a couple of thousand bucks, I could attend a dinner with Bush!

I told him that it would cost much more than that for me to sit down with Bush.

I have received similar solicitations to attend dinner with the president. The more one pays, the closer to the president one sits. I also received similar solicitations for RNC and DNC - the more one pays, the greater number of influential people one gets to meet. I could have had dinner with Pelosi and Reid, Bill Clinton, Gore, etc - or Bush, Cheney, . . . .

Ummm - No thanks!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Depending on how the business was doing at the time, I might take an offer like that to sit with Obama.

Btw, the "award" was a complete fabrication.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yes! CNN tracked a Republican woman in Ohio who was undecided. After five days, and when she was out of time [she had to leave town] she finally broke for Obama.

My hope is that this will be typical of many Republicans: They are undecided because they want to vote Republican, but they don't want to vote for McCain and Palin. I have been in a similar situation in the past, and I broke just as she did. It is a struggle between emotions, and intellect, and the intellect wins; hopefully!

 

[Count Iblis]

Nature endorses Obama