What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[LowlyPion]

Fox put a poll result up that had asked people about their comfort with an African American as President.

77% said they were OK with it.

The same poll asked about their comfort with a 72 year old President.

The answer:

Spoiler

37%

 

[Astronuc]

You will vote for Obama
You will vote for Obama
You will vote for Obama
You will vote for Obama
You will vote for Obama

All you need now is a rotating spiral.


I think the stock markets will rally/surge if Obama wins. If McCain were to win, which is unlikely, the stock markets would probably crash again.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I am trying to get Mesmer and his glass harmonica.

 

[Astronuc]

Yes! CNN tracked a Republican woman in Ohio who was undecided. After five days, and when she was out of time [she had to leave town] she finally broke for Obama.

My hope is that this will be typical of many Republicans: They are undecided because they want to vote Republican, but they don't want to vote for McCain and Palin. I have been in a similar situation in the past, and I broke just as she did. It is a struggle between emotions, and intellect, and the intellect wins; hopefully!

I have a friend who has been staunch republican. He would have preferred McCain to Bush 8 years ago. He's not sure about McCain now, and he really worries about Palin. He could vote for Obama.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The national polls seem to be stabilizing a bit. With Obama ahead by eight, the gallup traditional poll is only one point less than the gallup extended poll. Until now they have differed by at least several points; sometimes more. And the variation between the latest polls is only eight points - ranging from 3 to 11 points in Obama's favor.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

RCP doesn't show any national poll giving McCain the lead since Sept 26th.

 

[Evo]

I think anyone thinking of voting for McCain should stop and ask themselves if they would vote for Palin for President. If the answer is no...

 

[Evo]

Excellent poll, lots of information.

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/oct08e.trn.pdf

 

[Evo]

I was just reading about people that are still undecided and I can't imagine how this close to the election someone could be undecided.

It's not like the two candidates are so similar that it's hard to choose.

If you know anything about what is going on and have been following and learning about the candidates, how can you be undecided? Seriously.

Is there someone undecided on here that could explain why?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

There are 81 days left in the Bush administration.

Bush has not been asked to attend one campaign rally for any Republican candidate.

 

[Evo]

There are 81 days left in the Bush administration.

Bush has not been asked to attend one campaign rally for any Republican candidate.

Isn't that a little unusual?

 

[Astronuc]

Isn't that a little unusual?

Not for an unpopular president.

If the war in Iraq had wrapped up a couple of years ago and cost $1 trillion less, and the Dow was at 15,000 or 16,000 instead of ~9325, and we didn't have a financial crisis with big bank bailouts, and mortgage defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies weren't at record levels, and unemployment was below 5%, then Bush might be campaigning with McCain and other republicans.

 

[LowlyPion]

I was just reading about people that are still undecided and I can't imagine how this close to the election someone could be undecided.

It's not like the two candidates are so similar that it's hard to choose.

If you know anything about what is going on and have been following and learning about the candidates, how can you be undecided? Seriously.

Is there someone undecided on here that could explain why?

I'm still undecided.

Though mainly, my indecision is about whether I go at 6:30 AM or a more leisurely time slot at one of the Dr. Pepper times of 10 - 2 - 4 , but definitely decided not to vote past 5:00PM

 

[mathwonk]

i take back my criticism of obama's final push, clearly the republicans are targeting the imbecile vote, according to tonight's coverage. "let's help obama with his skinny legs!"

 

[Evo]

I'm still undecided.

Though mainly, my indecision is about whether I go at 6:30 AM or a more leisurely time slot at one of the Dr. Pepper times of 10 - 2 - 4 , but definitely decided not to vote past 5:00PM

That's worthy of a fish whack.

 

[LowlyPion]

That's worthy of a fish whack.

I'm not sure what that is, but it I have an uneasy feeling that it wouldn't be pleasant for me and it sounds like the fish won't enjoy it at all.

 

[Evo]

I'm not sure what that is, but it I have an uneasy feeling that it wouldn't be pleasant for me and it sounds like the fish won't enjoy it at all.

What, you haven't been formally initiated?

 

[LowlyPion]

Here's McCain policing the cat box and Old Larry having to eat what he threw up and act like he enjoyed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZzOpFgykxc

 

[LowlyPion]

What, you haven't been formally initiated?

I have a distinct feeling that there is no good answer to that question.

 

[lisab]

I have a distinct feeling that there is no good answer to that question.

Oh, LP -- really, seriously -- as a kindred soul, I have to ask...what's your favorite fish?

 

[Evo]

Here's McCain policing the cat box and Old Larry having to eat what he threw up and act like he enjoyed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZzOpFgykxc

That's hysterical, the way he's stuttering gives away the fact that he doesn't believe a word he's saying.

 

[LowlyPion]

Oh, LP -- really, seriously -- as a kindred soul, I have to ask...what's your favorite fish?

Grey Sole, salmon (that will be purchased and broiled tomorrow in fact, as I saw some in the market today), red snapper or sea bass when I can get it. Various mollusks and crustaceans. It's hard to say a favorite really.

 

[lisab]

Grey Sole, salmon (that will be purchased and broiled tomorrow in fact, as I saw some in the market today), red snapper or sea bass when I can get it. Various mollusks and crustaceans. It's hard to say a favorite really.

OK, wild Coho salmon it is (I do live in Washington State, after all!)...

THWAP! THWAP!

Congrats, LP!

 

[LowlyPion]

OK, wild Coho salmon it is (I do live in Washington State, after all!)...

THWAP! THWAP!

Congrats, LP!

Well I hope at least it was good for you.

 

[Evo]

Good job Lisab!

LP, red snapper? It's my favorite, but it's overfished and you are NOT supposed to eat it!

BAD!

 

[LowlyPion]

Good job Lisab!

LP, red snapper? It's my favorite, but it's overfished and you are NOT supposed to eat it!

BAD!

As a kid I used to eat it. My Grandfather had a place at Kemah. Haven't had it much recently, so I guess that would be why then, eh?

 

[Math Is Hard]

I'm still undecided.

Though mainly, my indecision is about whether I go at 6:30 AM or a more leisurely time slot at one of the Dr. Pepper times of 10 - 2 - 4 , but definitely decided not to vote past 5:00PM

I went with the "Vote by Mail" option this year. In California, you don't even have to give them a reason, they just mail you a ballot.

 

[LowlyPion]

I went with the "Vote by Mail" option this year. In California, you don't even have to give them a reason, they just mail you a ballot.

Actually my precinct has 2300 voting individuals and it's paper ballots and they have maybe 12 cubettes for filling in the ballots. Figure the 12 hour voting day that's 200 an hour average. They have the alphabet split into 3 or 4 look-ups and each look-up takes maybe 20 seconds tops. So that means they have a run rate of maybe 10+/minute at their bottleneck through the precinct. Theoretically then I think they can do all voters in less than 4 hours, so my expectation is that any of the Dr. Pepper times will be smooth runnings and not that long a wait as I see in the early voting lines elsewhere.

 

[Math Is Hard]

What are the "Dr. Pepper times"? (sorry if I missed the explanation in an earlier post).

A problem that I have found with voting in Los Angeles is parking. One time I circled a neighborhood for 20 minutes looking for parking anywhere near the polling place and finally gave up. It could be that I went during a popular time, but parking here always sucks.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

What are the "Dr. Pepper times"? (sorry if I missed the explanation in an earlier post).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Dr_Pepper_types.jpg/800px-

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I got a real charge out of a comment made by, I think, Judy Woodruff, on PBS, while she was talking with another newsperson [I was a bit preoccupied making dinner]. "What will we talk about when this race is over?", she asked. The other person had to think for a moment, and then blurted out, "the economy!". Oh yes, the economy...that's right.

This election has been the wildest ride that I have had in a long time. It is so sad that Russert didn't live to see all of this, but at least he knew it was coming.

 

[Astronuc]

As a kid I used to eat it. My Grandfather had a place at Kemah. Haven't had it much recently, so I guess that would be why then, eh?

LP, your grandfather was a fisherman (snapper), restauranteur, retailer, or just happened to live there. Evo's lived not too far from Kemah.

I used to go there on occasion.

 

[Astronuc]

Who Are The Undecided Voters?
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96403104

. . . .
When voters are asked by pollsters why they remain undecided, their answers typically put them into three categories, Kohut says: the conflicted voters who feel torn between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama; the disengaged voters who have not been paying attention to the campaign; and the nonvoters.

"There's some real reason for these people to not being able to make up their mind," Kohut says, "in addition to the fact there's a component of them who are disengaged, who probably won't vote."

Among the undecided voters interviewed, some say they worry about Obama's qualifications or his ability to fix the economy, Kohut says; some say they have doubts about McCain's health care policy.

In the end, Kohut says, Pew's analysis shows that undecided voters are going to divide up fairly evenly — although they may be slightly more supportive of McCain than voters who have already made up their minds.

 

[Astronuc]

Brain Trust: Who Will Advise The Next President?
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96347446

. . . .
In broad stroke, the Herculean issues include a swerving economy, two wars and rumors of more out-of-control health care costs and a warming globe.

"I can't think of any other president who came into office with these multiple crises," says Joan Hoff, a former executive director of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. "Next year will be the messiest inheritance I can think of for any president who was elected and did not come into office accidentally."

Hoff, author of Nixon Reconsidered, says the present administration "has created problems that cannot be resolved easily, if at all, in four years. And so whoever is elected may be perceived to be a failure. All new presidents have to clean up a few things, but nothing like this."

What will the transition team look like? Will it be young or old? Open or guarded? And who will be in the brain trust that the new president assembles to help sort out all the sordid details? McCain, who calls everyone "my friend," is likely to rely on tried-and-true buddies. Obama may cast a wider net.

"If you're going to have a successful transition," says presidential historian Allan J. Lichtman, "the most important thing is to muster the brainpower needed to set policy and implement it." He adds that a new president must also summon an advisory group with seasoned experience and youthful exuberance.

. . . .

Something to think about.

I've noticed a lot of 'experts' and 'politicos' from various institutions writing memos and advice columns to the next president.

For example, Madeleine Albright's 'Memo To The President'
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95941657

Chapter 1: A mandate to lead

memorandum (personal and confidential)
To: The President Elect
From: Madeleine K. Albright
Date: Election Night, 2008

Congratulations on your success. Well done! You have won a great victory. But with that victory comes the responsibility to lead a divided nation in a world riven by conflict and inequity, wounded by hate, bewildered by change, and made anxious by the renewed specter of nuclear Armageddon.

In days to come, leaders you've never heard of, from countries you can barely locate, will assure you of their friendship and offer you assistance. My advice is to accept, for you will need help.

We Americans like to think of ourselves as exemplars of generosity and virtue, but to many people in many places, we are selfish, imperious, and violent. The voters will want you to transform this perception while also protecting us, defeating our enemies, and securing our economic future — in other words, to do as promised during your campaign.

The president of the United States has been compared to the ruler of the universe, a helmsman on a great sailing ship, the Mikado's Grand Poo-bah, a lonely figure immersed in "splendid misery" (Jefferson's description), and "the personal embodiment [of the] ... dignity and majesty of the American people" (William Howard Taft's).

Students of the office have identified an array of presidential roles: commander in chief, master diplomat, national spokesperson, head administrator, top legislator, party leader, patron of the arts, congratulator of athletic teams, and surrogate parent. Your political advisors will want you to focus on activities that will keep your poll numbers high and get you reelected. I urge you to concentrate on duties that will restore our country's reputation and keep us safe.

On January 20, 2009, you will place your hand on the Bible and, prompted by Chief Justice Roberts, swear in front of three hundred million Americans and six billion people worldwide to "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

Following George Washington's example, you will add a heartfelt "so help me God." The oath completed, you will become the world's most powerful person. It will no longer be happenstance when you enter a room and the band strikes up "Hail to the Chief." You have attained our nation's highest office; the question, not yet answered, is whether you have what it takes to excel in the job.

. . . .

Someone will need to send McCain a map. He recently made a comment about nations we have not discovered! Someone should inform him that we know all the nations and exactly where they are. Well - those of use who have not been disengaged for a lengthy period do.


'This American Moment' As Peggy Noonan Sees It
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95243137

 

[Evo]

Late Night Humor:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/late-night-jokes-of-the-w_n_139952.html

Can you find another link to the video? Huffington Post is a one sided blog, therefor I can't allow links to the site. The video is fine though. I will let the link stay up for a bit, hopefully someone will find the direct link to the clip.

 

[LowlyPion]

Can you find another link to the video? Huffington Post is a one sided blog, therefor I can't allow links to the site. The video is fine though. I will let the link stay up for a bit, hopefully someone will find the direct link to the clip.

The link is only through Brightcove.com which doesn't allow for direct linking.

I considered that the HuffingtonPost was a biased site, but on the other hand this is merely a compilation of third party sourced material and is not the usual hyperbolics that can sometimes be found sourced from there.

I think a blanket rejection of anything from Huffington doesn't allow sufficient latitude and open-mindedness for some material that is sufficiently already mainstream.

For instance would a story about North Texas aftershocks be automatically censored because it wasn't reported elsewhere like AP first?

Would we not investigate x-ray emission from ripping masking tape if we only read about it in Pravda?