What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[Astronuc]

As the Daily Show did their piece from the convention on McCain - from Maverick Reformer now to Reformed Maverick. Wallowing in divisive campaign tactics, aimed at doing and saying anything to gain power.

I believe one is referring to this spot -
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=185103&title=rnc-coverage-highlights

 

[Astronuc]

McCain - In a not so brilliant reversal (or flip-flop), McCain goes from a declaration that the economy has strong fundamentals (in Jacksonville, FL) to one in crisis, or one that is at risk (in Orlando). That's only 141 miles or 2 hrs driving! Wow - McCain can change is message so quickly.

McCain: 'I Know Americans Are Hurting Now'
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94658925


I guess McCain hasn't noticed the huge deficits and debt in Washington DC.

 

[Astronuc]

The Palin-Whatshisname Ticket
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/opinion/14rich.html

. . . . .
It’s an urgent matter, because if we’ve learned anything from the G.O.P. convention and its aftermath, it’s that the 2008 edition of John McCain is too weak to serve as America’s chief executive. This unmentionable truth, more than race, is now the real elephant in the room of this election.

No longer able to remember his principles any better than he can distinguish between Sunnis and Shia, McCain stands revealed as a guy who can be easily rolled by anyone who sells him a plan for “victory,” whether in Iraq or in Michigan. A McCain victory on Election Day will usher in a Palin presidency, with McCain serving as a transitional front man, an even weaker Bush to her Cheney.

The ambitious Palin and the ruthless forces she represents know it, too. You can almost see them smacking their lips in anticipation, whether they’re wearing lipstick or not.

This was made clear in the most chilling passage of Palin’s acceptance speech. Aligning herself with “a young farmer and a haberdasher from Missouri” who “followed an unlikely path to the vice presidency,” she read a quote from an unidentified writer who, she claimed, had praised Truman: . . . .

But it was someone else's speech read by Palin.

 

[Astronuc]

Big news! http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-lynn-forester-de-rothschild-080917-ht,0,7478149.story

Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a top Hillary Clinton fundraiser and member of the Democratic National Committee's Platform Committee, supports John McCain, his campaign says.

Rothschild has said she thinks Barack Obama is arrogant and has difficulty connecting with average Americans.

Rothschild is a member of the DNC's Democrats Abroad chapter and splits her time living in London and New York. She was one of Clinton's top fundraisers, bringing in more than $100,000 for her presidential campaign. She built a multimillion-dollar telecommunications company before marrying international banker Sir Evelyn de Rothschild.

Interesting.


Some background on Lynn Forester de Rothschild

 

[Evo]

I am going to re-open the poll in this thread and get an update for the current feelings on the election since Palin was added to the fray.

The original poll results are

Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes 15 51.72%
Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes 6 20.69%
McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79%
McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79%

I would like to ask that ONLY Americans that will be voting in November to respond in the poll.

I will poll again after the first Presidential debate.

 

[LowlyPion]

Rothschild has said she thinks Barack Obama is arrogant and has difficulty connecting with average Americans.

...She built a multimillion-dollar telecommunications company before marrying international banker Sir Evelyn de Rothschild.

It's not exactly like she is in touch with average Americans in her jet-set world.

She sounds like a McCain Country Club Republican to begin with.

 

[BobG]

Realistically, those 270 EVs are very likely all that McCain can reasonably expect to win. In that map, there are 5 states with a margin of 2% or less, and McCain is currently in the lead in all 5 (OH, VA, IN, NV, NM, IN). If even one of those 5 states goes to Obama, it's essentially over for McCain. He almost absolutely needs to hold all 5 of them if he is to have a reasonable chance of winning. What do you think are the odds on that? To really improve his chances beyond that slim possibility, McCain will need to show some ability to win MI.

I agree with the assessment. McCain shouldn't even be close and he needs one of these peaks to hit right at election time to win. As soon as the public backs off of Palin and focuses back on McCain-Obama, I'd look for momentum to swing Obama's way.

One reason - the economy.

Historically, the Consumer Confidence Index (third report down) is a pretty good predictor of who'll win the popular election (keeping in mind Gore won the popular vote if not the electoral vote). If the Consumer Confidence Index is above 100 in September, the incumbent party wins. If the CCI is below 100 in September, the incumbent party loses.

Bush beat the odds at least once, since the CCI was at 96.7 (lowest ever for a victorious incumbent) in Sep 2004 and he won the electoral vote in 2000 in spite of the CCI being at 142.5 in Sep 2000. In fact, 2000 is probably the biggest reason for hope McCain has - with a CCI that's been in the 50's all summer long, McCain winning in November would be as big a long shot as Bush's victory in 2000 (even if Gore did eke out more in the popular vote).

The alternative version doesn't look good for McCain, either. The alternative version holds that if the present situation index is higher than the expectations index at the midterm elections, the incumbent will lose the Presidential election 2 years later. The future is gloomier than the present. That version works even for 2000 and 2004. In 2006, the current situation index was a good 30 to 40 points above the epectations index all year long (and I guess they were justified in their gloom).

With Change in Consumer Confidence, So Goes the Presidency

Or, it could be that none of that matters anymore and that Presidents are chosen solely on emotion generated from 30 second attack ads.

 

[LowlyPion]

The Palin-Whatshisname Ticket
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/opinion/14rich.html

A McCain victory on Election Day will usher in a Palin presidency, with McCain serving as a transitional front man, an even weaker Bush to her Cheney.

This I tend to doubt. I don't think she wields any real power. She is apparently as much a front person for the Right Wing as Bush ever has been, but there will be no Cheney in the back room to pull the strings of either.

 

[Astronuc]

This I tend to doubt. I don't think she wields any real power. She is apparently as much a front person for the Right Wing as Bush ever has been, but there will be no Cheney in the back room to pull the strings of either.

That's definitely an exaggeration!

I think though a McCain-Palin administration bashing heads with Reid-Pelosi would not be good for the country. If Obama wins, I hope he doesn't just go along with Reid and Pelosi.

It would have been great with McCain-Obama (although I'm reconsidering that based on McCain's comments and behavior lately), or possibly Obama-McCain.

Based on McCain's outlandish claims about Palin, and some of his, what seems to me, erratic behavior, I can't help think about the Manchurian candidate.

 

[Gokul43201]

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN's poll of polls has Obama back up by 1 today
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

But get this: Obama and McCain are essentially tied in Florida, which is showing as "undecided". However, when you include third party candidates, Obama wins by 48%-44%.

 

[Astronuc]

This I tend to doubt. I don't think she wields any real power. She is apparently as much a front person for the Right Wing as Bush ever has been, but there will be no Cheney in the back room to pull the strings of either.

I was thinking about this again. Palin does not have the connections Cheney does, and she's publicly claimed that she'll take on the oil companies.

I think the reference to Cheney relates to the secrecy and avoidance the Palin has engaged in during her terms as mayor of Wasilla and governor of Alaska. According the NY Times article I cited, Palin has established private emails with which to do state business, and has made her staff do so, with the motivation to keep the records out of the public. Apparently she wishes to conceal her activities from public and legal scrutiny.

Here's another twist.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080917/pl_politico/13525_1

Out on the stump, John McCain gets wild applause each time he promises as president to veto every spending bill that contains an earmark.

But McCain will find it almost impossible to live up to his vow, and gridlock would result if Congress refused to go along with such an executive branch power grab.

And that’s what members of McCain’s own party are saying.

“I don’t think it’s the right approach,” said Rep. Ralph Regula, an Ohio Republican who has spent three decades on the House Appropriations Committee. “I haven’t done an earmark I wouldn’t be happy to have spread all over the front pages of the paper.”

Rep. C.W. Bill Young (R-Fla.), a former Appropriations Committee chairman, warns that both parties in Congress would protect their power against a no-earmark policy.

“The Constitution is very specific and very clear about who appropriates money,” Young said. “Not all earmarks are pork-barrel spending.” . . . .

I wonder if McCain will work with Reid and Pelosi to cut earmarks. I wonder if earmarks to Alaska will disappear. Federal money provides for about 1/3 of Alaska's economy (I have to find the source for that).

From Charlie Gibson's (ABC) interview with Palin - "According to OMB figures for 2008, Alaska received $155 million in earmarks." But Palin explains they have reduced earmark requests. Hmmm - I have to wonder, since when.

http://trac.syr.edu/tracreports/fedfund/112/

Setting aside the districts in and around the nation's capital, Alaska had the highest federal expenditure (per capita). With $12,339 received for each man, woman, and child in that state.

Meanwhile - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080917/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_markets;_ylt=AnW7lnfObeLnRaPVSt96REeyFz4D

WASHINGTON - The White House throttled back its description of the U.S. economy on Wednesday, labeling it resilient enough to withstand some shocks to the system but refusing to say it is fundamentally sound — the phrase that has jolted the race for the presidency.

In defending the latest corporate rescue by the government, the White House put the country's economic state in a much more measured perspective.

Press secretary Dana Perino said "it's not clear-cut," but rather a mixed package of up-and-down economic measures, sometimes even on the same day.

"Our economy has the strength to be able to deal with these shocks," Perino said as financial markets were still reeling from corporate meltdowns.

The economic language that emerges from the White House is always important. It sends messages to the markets and to the masses. And it is designed to find a balance of boosting consumer confidence while also being candid enough to prevent President Bush from appearing out of touch.

Bush is out of touch!

 

[Astronuc]

Hmmm. This was published by the LATimes
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-earmarksbox13-2008sep13,0,7473529.story

September 13, 2008

Major parts of this year's request

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin submitted a request this year for 31 federal earmarks worth $197.8 million. Her memo and the list of projects can be found on the website of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens at http://stevens.senate.gov/earmarks/Approps-StateofAlaska.pdf . Here are the biggest earmarks:

$71 million to build sanitation systems in rural areas

$25 million to compensate for reductions in the salmon harvest

$13.7 million to create a military readiness center

$10.4 million to install runway lighting at rural airports

$10 million to install large-diameter fish passage culverts

$8.7 million to recruit and train workers to build a natural gas pipeline

$6.3 million to upgrade communications for Alaska's Air National Guard 168th Air Refueling Wing

$5 million to help schools meet No Child Left Behind requirements

$4 million to build and maintain recreation trails

$4 million to conserve salmon in the Yukon River

And first page of memo: For futher information concerning these requests, please contact Governor Palin's DC office at 202-624-5858.

Hey, whaddaya know - Palin is a Washington insider!

So what are they doing with all the oil revenue, besides disbursing it to individuals?

 

[Evo]

Hmmm. This was published by the LATimes
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-earmarksbox13-2008sep13,0,7473529.story


And first page of memo: For futher information concerning these requests, please contact Governor Palin's DC office at 202-624-5858.

Hey, whaddaya know - Palin is a Washington insider!

So what are they doing with all the oil revenue, besides disbursing it to individuals?

Funny here is a quote from Palin

When we became a state 50 years ago, we struck a
deal with the federal government where we said,"Let us in a union where we will be as self-
sufficient as possible."

http://www.omgili.com/newsgroups/talk/environment/C49F02AA10FDCleonard78spprimusca.html

And she's asking for $197.8 million in federal earmarks?

 

[BobG]

Hmmm. This was published by the LATimes
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-earmarksbox13-2008sep13,0,7473529.story


And first page of memo: For futher information concerning these requests, please contact Governor Palin's DC office at 202-624-5858.

Hey, whaddaya know - Palin is a Washington insider!

So what are they doing with all the oil revenue, besides disbursing it to individuals?

Delaware, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota all receive less federal spending than Alaska. Every other state receives more. In fact, Washington DC receives more federal spending than Alaska.

On the other hand, it is true that Alaska receives more federal spending per capita than any other state. When the money you ask for is small potatoes compared to states with larger populations, you can get away with asking for more than your fair share.

Alaska receives $1.84 in federal spending for every tax dollar they send to the federal government. That's the 3rd highest ratio in the nation.

On the other hand, Washington DC receives $5.55 for every tax dollar they send to the federal government (they're not a state, so they're not ranked). New Mexico receives $2.03 for every dollar they send to the fedgov. Mississippi receives $2.02 per tax dollar.

http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22685.html

Colorado only receives $0.81 for every tax dollar. I think it's time for Colorado to elect some new members to Congress. Ours don't seem very effective.

Arizona receives $1.21 for every tax dollar - slightly above average at 21st in the nation.
Per capita, they're average (25th) for federal spending received.

Illinois receives quite a bit of federal money, but they rank 45th per capita. They receive $0.75 for every tax dollar they send to the federal government (which also ranks 45th). Illinois needs new Congressmen even more than Colorado.

California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey pretty much carry the bulk of the load in financing projects for the rest of the US. They all have large economies, plus a big disparity between the amount of tax dollars that go out and the amount of tax dollars that come in.

 

[Astronuc]

McCain, Obama Yet To Convince Voters on Economic Crisis
http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20080918/pl_rasmussen/bankfailure20080918

Neither presidential candidate has convinced a majority of voters that they know how to handle the country's growing economic crisis, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Just 24% say it's Very Likely that Barack Obama will bring the kind of change that is needed to Wall Street. Another 29% say he is Somewhat Likely to accomplish that goal while 42% say he is not likely to do so.

For McCain, the numbers are similar. Just 25% say he is Very Likely to bring about the needed Wall Street reforms if elected. Another 25% say he is Somewhat Likely to do so while 44% say such accomplishments are not likely in a McCain administration.

Voter interest in how the two candidates respond is obvious since 26% say the bank failures in the news are Very Likely to have a significant impact on their own personal finances. Another 38% say it's Somewhat Likely that their finances could be impacted as well.

Both campaigns are struggling to respond to the announced $85 billion government bailout of mega-insurer American International Group (AIG) earlier this week. The candidates have blamed each other's political parties for the country's economic problems, but even though they have opposed bailouts up until now, both have stopped short this week of condemning the AIG decision.

But they both blame the other guy, or warn that the other guy doesn't have the answer.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN poll of polls today
Obama 47% - McCain 44%
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

I have noticed lately that Campbell Brown seems to be doing a respectable job with her [new] news hour on CNN. So far I am just watching and waiting to see how it goes, but she seems promising.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I have to admit, I didn't see this coming. It looks like McCain is trying to curry favor with the left wing of the Democratic party and Obama is courting the right wing of the Republican party.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRK5zGMLJWl4&refer=home"

 

[LowlyPion]

I have to admit, I didn't see this coming. It looks like McCain is trying to curry favor with the left wing of the Democratic party and Obama is courting the right wing of the Republican party.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRK5zGMLJWl4&refer=home"

Obama is embracing responsibility. McCain the Champion of Deregulation is trying to escape accountability.

It's the Republicans that are now forced to embrace greater regulation or drive the world into an abyss of their own making. This comes after their years of promoting trickle-down economics by lowering taxes and enriching the rich and nurturing lax regulation.

Oddly in the more recent decades it's been the Democrats that have shown fiscal restraint, despite their Depression era roots.

 

[LowlyPion]

I have to admit, I didn't see this coming. It looks like McCain is trying to curry favor with the left wing of the Democratic party and Obama is courting the right wing of the Republican party.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRK5zGMLJWl4&refer=home"

As a side note I hear that Bush is saying that short sellers are "going to be caught and persecuted."

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama is embracing responsibility. McCain the Champion of Deregulation is trying to escape accountability.

This, combined with his statements about strong fundamentals has and will cost him hugely. You can't undo twenty years of votes with a campaign slogan.

Btw, we have a new focus group: Walmart women.

 

[Astronuc]

McCain, speaking in Green Bay, Wisconsin, today, criticized regulators who, he said, have been ``egregiously lax'' in protecting the American public.

`The Federal Reserve should get back to its core business of responsibly managing our money supply and inflation,'' he added. That would lead to a strong dollar, he said, to reduce energy and food prices ``and get this economy moving again.''

He also expanded on his call yesterday for the firing of President George W. Bush's chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Christopher Cox.

That's rich coming from McCain. Why didn't he do something 6 mo ago, 1 yr ago, 2 yrs ago, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 yrs ago, when this was developing.

Has McCain noticed the federal debt and chronic deficits?

How about inflated home prices?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

WSJ slams McCain

...In the bruising editorial, the Journal said those comments an "assault on Mr. Cox is both false and deeply unfair."

"It's also un-Presidential," the Journal said.

Specifically the editorial says many of McCain's allegations against the SEC were misleading —...

"In a crisis, voters want steady, calm leadership, not easy, misleading answers that will do nothing to help. Mr. McCain is sounding like a candidate searching for a political foil rather than a genuine solution," the editorial also said. "He'll never beat Mr. Obama by running as an angry populist like Al Gore, circa 2000." [continued]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/19/wall-street-journal-editorial-board-skewers-mccain/

Whoops, first Carly, and now this.

When McCain was slamming Obama for not speaking out on the AIG failure quickly enough, I was thinking how McCain was recklessly shooting from the hip again. In fact a couple of economic analysts were saying that the President is completely at the mercy of his advisors on this one and really has no input. These are complex issues that require complex solutions.

We've already had a cowboy with a six-shooter as President.

 

[LowlyPion]

These are complex issues that require complex solutions.

If complex thinking is the measure, McCain and Palin are both too short.

Interesting turn of events though that the Wall Street Journal is being harsh on McCain.

Makes you wonder just what McCain's base really is.

 

[Gokul43201]

This is interesting...

Senator John McCain toiled for years to push a campaign finance overhaul through Congress. After the measure finally passed, Trevor Potter, a lawyer and vigorous advocate for reforming the system, was instrumental in defending the law from challenges and pressing for strict enforcement.

Now, as Mr. McCain makes his final sprint for the White House, Mr. Potter is again helping Mr. McCain, but this time by maneuvering to wring the maximum out of campaign finance laws in ways that some contend are at odds with the spirit of the reforms they championed.
...
“There are very, very few lawyers in the country that are better at exploiting campaign finance loopholes than Trevor Potter,” said Bradley A. Smith, a former Republican chairman of the Federal Election Commission. “Of course, that’s one of the odd things about the McCain campaign: ‘Here’s the rules we want, but we’ll play by the rules that are here.’ ”
...
The centerpiece of McCain-Feingold was its efforts to rein in “soft money,” or unregulated contributions, in national elections. But McCain fund-raisers continue to build much of their efforts around the solicitation of large contributions of up to about $70,000 for a special joint fund-raising account for the Republican National Committee and several state parties, which can spend money on behalf of the campaign, called McCain-Palin Victory 2008.

Campaigns have used the joint fund-raising committees in the past, but the McCain campaign took the practice to a new level by linking them with state party accounts, which can accept contributions of $10,000, on top of the $28,500 collected for the national party, $2,300 for the compliance fund and, until recently, $2,300 for the campaign’s primary coffers.

More here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/us/politics/20donate.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
or here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26799209/

 

[Gokul43201]

Nothing new here:

WASHINGTON - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.
...
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
...
On the other side of the racial question, the Illinois Democrat is drawing almost unanimous support from blacks, the poll shows, though that probably wouldn't be enough to counter the negative effect of some whites' views.
...
Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26803840/

 

[Ivan Seeking]

George Will [ultra-conservative] stated today that McCain literally scared conservatives this week with his response to the financial crisis. McCain's kneejerk reaction was seen as reckless and second-rate. Obama was perceived to be calm and Presidential...by the wall street conservatives! Obama was also widely praised for allowing the Federal Government to respond to the crisis before he responded in specific terms. Recall that McCain slammed Obama for not responding quickly enough.

Sam Donaldson also suggested that McCains gaffes this week in reference to the economy call back into question his age. He has simply made too many inexplicable mistakes.

See the Roundtable Discussion
http://abcnews.go.com/thisweek

Gallup has Obama up by 4% today.

During the roundtable discussion, one study was mentioned that suggests the numbers for Obama must be derated by about 2.5% [points] to compensate for hidden racial bias.

 

[Astronuc]

During the roundtable discussion, one study was mentioned that suggests the numbers for Obama must be derated by about 2.5% [points] to compensate for hidden racial bias.

Apparently, many of those of European/Anglo descent still habor concerns about anyone who is African-American, according to a survey conducted by Standford U for AP/Yahoo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080922/ap_on_el_pr/ap_yahoo_poll_race_in_america;_ylt=Agtjj_Es8vp02oeVl6o5fTiyFz4D

. . . .
Now, in what could be a historic year for a black presidential candidate, a new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll, conducted with Stanford University, shows just how wide a gap remains between whites and blacks.

It shows that a substantial portion of white Americans still harbor negative feelings toward blacks. It shows that blacks and whites disagree tremendously on how much racial prejudice exists, whose fault it is and how much influence blacks have in politics.

One result is that Barack Obama's path to the presidency is steeper than it would be if he were white.

Until now, social scientists have not closely examined racial sentiments on a nationwide scale at a moment when race is central to choosing the next president. The poll, which featured a large sample of Americans — more than 2,200 — and sophisticated survey techniques rarely used in media surveys, reflected the complexity, change and occasional contradictions of race relations.

More whites apply positive attributes to blacks than negative ones, and blacks are even more generous in their descriptions of whites. Racial prejudice is lower among college-educated whites living outside the South. And many whites who think most blacks are somewhat lazy, violent or boastful are willing or even eager to vote for Obama over Republican John McCain, who is white.

The poll, however, shows that blacks and whites see racial discrimination in starkly different terms. When asked "how much discrimination against blacks" exists, 10 percent of whites said "a lot" and 45 percent said "some."

Among blacks, 57 percent said "a lot" and all but a fraction of the rest said "some."

. . . .

Poll: Racial views steer some white Dems away from Obama
http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-obama-race

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN poll of polls today

Obama 49 - McCain 44

Americans blame Republicans by a 2-1 ratio over Democrats for the country's financial crisis, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll. The same poll showed Obama leading the election 51-46 over McCain. The two were tied just 2 weeks ago. [continued]

http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=73547

 

[Astronuc]

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters
http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-hillary-s-voters
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama's support from backers of Hillary Rodham Clinton is stuck smack where it was in June, a poll showed Tuesday, a stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with members of the Democratic Party in the close presidential race.

An Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll shows that among adults who backed his rival during their bitter primary campaign, 58 percent now support Obama. That is the same percentage who said so in June, when Clinton ended her bid and urged her backers to line up behind the Democratic senator from Illinois.

The poll shows that while Obama has gained ground among Clinton's supporters — 69 percent view him favorably now, up 9 percentage points from June — this has yet to translate into more of their support.
. . . .

Obama Carries Uneven Record as Debater to First Contest With McCain
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/us/politics/23obama.html

Senator Barack Obama has shown himself at times to be a great orator. His debating skills, however, have been uneven.

Some of his chief strengths — his facility with words, his wry detachment, his reasoning skills, his youthful cool — have not always served him well and may pose significant vulnerabilities in the series of presidential debates that begins Friday, according to political analysts and a review of his earlier debate performances.

Mr. Obama has a tendency to overintellectualize and to lecture, befitting his training as a lawyer and law professor. He exudes disdain for the quips and sound bites that some deride as trivializing political debates but that have become a central part of scoring them. He tends to the earnest and humorless when audiences seem to crave passion and personality. He frequently rises above the mire of political combat when the battle calls for engagement.

[at Saddleback]. . . . Mr. Obama gave long, discursive answers to questions on loaded topics like abortion and personal moral failings, while Mr. McCain stole the show with earthy anecdotes and humor.

. . . .

Quip, anecdotes and gratuitous humor turn me off, especially when speakers evade the questions, or do not provide sufficient/substantive answers. I prefer substantive content.

 

[turbo]

One of the US's most influential evangelical leaders says that McCain lacks principle. He is a DC lobbyist for a 30Million-strong evangelical coalition, and he is very concerned about environmental issues which could impact on climate change, so his concerns about McCain are significant if they translate to action among evangelicals.

http://coloradoindependent.com/8807/evangelical-leader-smacks-mccain-for-lack-of-principle

 

[Astronuc]

After the next president is elected, I hope that there is much better scrutiny by the media of goings on in Washington.

Actually I hope it's happening today, and from now on.

 

[turbo]

In this election cycle, the press is being cut out of all substantive contact with McCain and Palin. Every time those two spend some time with the press, they end up making gaffes and trying to recover from "foot in mouth" disease. The Washington Post is actually monitoring their refusal to take questions and marking the days.

 

[turbo]

One of the giant mortgage companies at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.

The disclosure undercuts a statement by Mr. McCain on Sunday night that the campaign manager, Rick Davis, had had no involvement with the company for the last several years.

Mr. Davis’s firm received the payments from the company, Freddie Mac, until it was taken over by the government this month along with Fannie Mae, the other big mortgage lender whose deteriorating finances helped precipitate the cascading problems on Wall Street, the people said.

They said they did not recall Mr. Davis’s doing much substantive work for the company in return for the money, other than speak to a political action committee of high-ranking employees in October 2006 on the approaching midterm Congressional elections. They said Mr. Davis’s firm, Davis & Manafort, had been kept on the payroll because of Mr. Davis’s close ties to Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who by 2006 was widely expected to run again for the White House.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/u...&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

So what will McCain do about this revelation? Will he act shocked and indignant, and fire his campaign manager? He has been accusing Obama of having close ties to Fannie and Freddie managers - that smear probably won't work for him after this.

Confirmation from Newsweek:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/160561/output/print

 

[Astronuc]

McCain says he is suspending campaign, will focus on economy
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/24/campaign.wrap/index.html
Calls for Obama to do same


Wooooah! Hold the horses.


Wow! We live in interesting times!