What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[Evo]

Obama likely to keep debate as McCain seeks delay

NEW YORK - Barack Obama's campaign says he is inclined to go ahead with Friday's presidential debate, even though rival John McCain is calling for a delay

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

Kind of a one sided debate.

 

[Astronuc]

Laura Bush: Palin lacks foreign policy experience, but . . .
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/palin_laura_bush

WASHINGTON - First lady Laura Bush says Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin lacks sufficient foreign policy experience but is a very quick study.

Palin: Another Great Depression could be in store
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/palin_4

NEW YORK - Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin said Wednesday that the United States could be headed for another Great Depression if Congress doesn't act on the financial crisis.

Just when I think the surrealism of the 2008 Presidential Election has peaked - it surges yet again.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

Kind of a one sided debate.

I don't think that will change the quality of the debate.

 

[LowlyPion]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

Kind of a one sided debate.

Sounds like McCain is in a rush to make himself sound presidential, after flopping about like a fool the last couple of days. Maybe even they are short on cash

McCain adviser Mark Salter initially said the senator would suspend all advertising and campaign events until a workable deal is reached on the bailout proposal — but only if the Obama campaign agreed to do the same. But later, McCain adviser Steve Schmidt said McCain would move ahead regardless of whether Obama agrees.

I think Obama is right that the country deserves an airing of the issues and approaches from the candidate, and maybe the topic of the debate should be about the economy instead of Foreign Affairs. But this strangely looks like cowardice from McCain who I imagine is incapable of retooling his groomed preparations to a topic switch.

 

[Astronuc]

Well - I would think that if the Senate is discussing/debating/crafting/deliberating on the Paulson plan, then both Senators McCain and Obama should be participating. I'm not sure if it is necessary to suspend the debate though, but perhaps the focus should shift primarily to the economy, the remedy for the current situation, and where we go from here, including tax policy and federal spending, debt and deficit spending, . . . . .

 

[LowlyPion]

Well - I would think that if the Senate is discussing/debating/crafting/deliberating on the Paulson plan, then both Senators McCain and Obama should be participating. I'm not sure if it is necessary to suspend the debate though, but perhaps the focus should shift primarily to the economy, the remedy for the current situation, and where we go from here, including tax policy and federal spending, debt and deficit spending, . . . . .

Certainly I wouldn't expect that they would stop deliberating, but let's see how busy they are Friday night. The Nation might hope they can both chew gum and walk at the same time. Obama looks up to the task. Does McCain need extra nap time?

 

[mheslep]

...So what will McCain do about this revelation? Will he act shocked and indignant, and fire his campaign manager? He has been accusing Obama of having close ties to Fannie and Freddie managers - that smear probably won't work for him after this.

Sen Obama does indeed have close ties to Fanne/Freddie executives.

http://www.nysun.com/national/top-talent-scout-for-obama-tied-to-subprime-lender/79579/

James Johnson, one of three people tapped by Mr. Obama recently to oversee the search for his running mate, took at least five real estate loans totaling more than $7 million from Countrywide Financial Corp.
...
From 1991 to 1998, Mr. Johnson served as CEO of the Federal National Mortgage Association, also known as Fannie Mae, which worked closely with Countrywide, one of the nation's leading lenders and loan servicing companies. In 1996, Mr. Johnson named Mr. Mozilo as chairman of Fannie Mae's national advisory council.

 

[Evo]

Sen Obama does indeed have close ties to Fanne/Freddie executives.

http://www.nysun.com/national/top-talent-scout-for-obama-tied-to-subprime-lender/79579/

That's old non-news. Johnson resigned from the UNPAID position as vetter in the VP search the first week of June.

 

[Evo]

Obama has just taken a surge in the polls.

Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain
Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains

He's recovered to a 14-point lead over McCain in trust to handle the economy, and leads by 13 points specifically in trust to deal with the meltdown of major financial institutions.

Obama leads by more, 24 points, 57-33 percent, in better understanding the public's economic problems.

More economic worry, plus an Obama lead among those who express it, spells a lead for the Democrat: In a head-to-head-match-up he's now supported by 52 percent of likely voters vs. McCain's 43 percent, the first significant advantage for either candidate among likely voters in ABC/Post polls.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5866046&page=1

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The CNN poll of polls still has them at 49-45, but they also noted an upward trend and slight lead for Obama in five swing states that are currently listed as tied, including Michigan, Colorado, and Penn. I didn't catch the other two. Hopefully one was Florida.

 

[quadraphonics]

Intrade currently has Obama 56.3 vs. McCain 44.8. A few days ago, McCain was showing a slight lead; it appears that the Palin honeymoon is officially over.

Intrade also has state-by-state predictions, and associated electoral college counts, which show McCain ahead in Florida and slightly ahead in Ohio (as well as all of your usual red states). But that seems not to be able to match up with the higher populations of the blue states. Michigan, Colorado and Minnesota are currently shown as firmly in the Obama column.

 

[mheslep]

That's old non-news. Johnson resigned from the UNPAID position as vetter in the VP search the first week of June.

Yep, quit under fire. Former CEOs like Johnson don't work for campaigns for money, that's pocket change. They work for appointments or influence in the coming Admin.

 

[LowlyPion]

Freddie Mac paid McCain aide's firm

A mortgage giant in center of the financial crisis paid $15,000 a month to a firm owned by McCain's campaign manager as recently as last month, sources say.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/29653084.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr

 

[LowlyPion]

And they were getting their panties in a bunch because Obama used the cliche about McCain's economic policies being Bush's policies and it was all lipstick on a pig?

How's this one for sensitive phrasing by Mark Salter of the McCain Campaign?

Salter said to expect more of the same, saying the campaign was tired of “catching the spears.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/19/attack-by-association-viewed-as-fair-game-by-mccain-camp/

Nah, he wouldn't ... nah that kind of racial shorthand went out with the 1960's didn't it?

 

[Gokul43201]

Yep, quit under fire. Former CEOs like Johnson don't work for campaigns for money, that's pocket change. They work for appointments or influence in the coming Admin.

Johnson left Fannie over a decade ago. What's the point here, exactly?

 

[LowlyPion]

$500B bailout for the Savings and Loans

$700B bailout for the deregulated banking industry.

Let's hope those are bookends to the McCain career in elected office.

We can't afford for him to become any more of an overachiever.

He's managed to play a part in costing the US more than twice what Bill Gates has ever made.

 

[mheslep]

Johnson left Fannie over a decade ago. What's the point here, exactly?

Fannie and Freddie's long term inside relationship with the federal government is the principal cause of the current subprime based credit problem. Sen Obama did nothing to stop Fan/Fred in his tenure and is now confusing the issue with 'McCain the Deregulator' banter. Support and association with those that ran these GSE's and think they are a great thing, like Johnson and Raines, increase the chances that we'll just see more of the same.

 

[Gokul43201]

More interesting/disturbing news:

Obama effigy found hanging from campus tree

NEWBERG, Ore. - Students and school leaders at a small Christian university expressed outrage Wednesday at the discovery of a life-size cardboard effigy of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama hanging from a tree on campus.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26872774/

 

[mathwonk]

lets see now, the current administration has long and persistently advocated stock market retirement accounts instead of guaranteed social security, but currently SS is the only reliable retirement accounts left.

the current administration advocates no limits on compensation for ceo's of bankrupt wall street firms and banks guilty of creating the current crisis, and plugs for the taxpayer to fund an unregulated unreviewed bailout of same firms.

even republican banking committee chair richard shelby says the white house declines to answer such basic questions as " did you consider any other options? [other than a simple payoff by taxpayers]

straight talk expressman mc cain wants to cancel his obligation to debate his opponent in front of the public, and has answered hardly any questions since august.

picking on republicans now is like shooting dead fish in a barrel, and yet they still have their apologists, as i introduce ...

 

[mathwonk]

oh and i plan to vote for sarah pailn, because she owns a rifle, can see russia from her state, and,..uhh,...oh yes is a woman,.

 

[Gokul43201]

Fannie and Freddie's long term inside relationship with the federal government is the principal cause of the current subprime based credit problem. Sen Obama did nothing to stop Fan/Fred in his tenure and is now confusing the issue with 'McCain the Deregulator' banter. Support and association with those that ran these GSE's and think they are a great thing, like Johnson and Raines, increase the chances that we'll just see more of the same.

GSE's have been around for about a century. I haven't heard any serious economist say that the cause of this problem is the existence of GSEs. On the other hand, it is very likely that the completely unregulated derivatives market, with the newly created credit default swaps are what's primarily behind the current problem.

To quote Buffet, from 2002:

Many people argue that derivatives reduce systemic problems, in that participants who can’t bear certain risks are able to transfer them to stronger hands. These people believe that derivatives act to stabilize the economy, facilitate trade, and eliminate bumps for individual participants. And, on a micro level, what they say is often true. Indeed, at Berkshire, I sometimes engage in large-scale derivatives transactions in order to facilitate certain investment strategies.

Charlie and I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other. The troubles of one could quickly infect the others. On top of that, these dealers are owed huge amounts by non-dealer counterparties. Some of these counterparties, as I’ve mentioned, are linked in ways that could cause them to contemporaneously run into a problem because of a single event (such as the implosion of the telecom industry or the precipitous decline in the value of merchant power projects). Linkage, when it suddenly surfaces, can trigger serious systemic problems.

Indeed, in 1998, the leveraged and derivatives-heavy activities of a single hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management, caused the Federal Reserve anxieties so severe that it hastily orchestrated a rescue effort. In later Congressional testimony, Fed officials acknowledged that, had they not intervened, the outstanding trades of LTCM – a firm unknown to the general public and employing only a few hundred people – could well have posed a serious threat to the stability of American markets. In other words, the Fed acted because its leaders were fearful of what might have happened to other financial institutions had the LTCM domino toppled. And this affair, though it paralyzed many parts of the fixed-income market for weeks, was far from a worst-case scenario.

One of the derivatives instruments that LTCM used was total-return swaps, contracts that facilitate 100% leverage in various markets, including stocks. For example, Party A to a contract, usually a bank, puts up all of the money for the purchase of a stock while Party B, without putting up any capital, agrees that at a future date it will receive any gain or pay any loss that the bank realizes.

Total-return swaps of this type make a joke of margin requirements. Beyond that, other types of derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions. Similarly, even experienced investors and analysts encounter major problems in analyzing the financial condition of firms that are heavily involved with derivatives contracts. When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running.

The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2002ar/2002ar.pdf

 

[mathwonk]

i hate to put all or most of my eggs in one basket, but if the american electorate sees fit to choose the republican ticket again this time,... gosh, it will almost be discouraging as to their cogency.

 

[mheslep]

GSE's have been around for about a century. I haven't heard any serious economist say that the cause of this problem is the existence of GSEs.

??

"If [Fannie and Freddie] continue to grow, continue to have the low capital that they have, continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which they need to do for interest rate risk aversion, they potentially create ever-growing potential systemic risk down the road." He added, "Enabling these institutions to increase in size--and they will, once the crisis, in their judgment, passes--we are placing the total financial system of the future at a substantial risk."

http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:i5qAjI4lEtMJ:www.aei.org/publications/pubID.22514/pub_detail.asp+In+February+2005,+the+House+Financial+Services+Committee+heard+testimony+from+Chairman+Greenspan+on+the+condition+of+the+economy.+After+his+prepared+testimony,+in+response+to+a+question+about+the+GSEs%27+portfolios,+Greenspan+noted,+%22We+have+found+no+reasonable+basis+for+that+portfolio+above+very+minimum+needs.%22+He+then+proposed&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

On the other hand, it is very likely that the completely unregulated derivatives market, with the newly created credit default swaps are what's primarily behind the current problem.

To quote Buffet, from 2002:


http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2002ar/2002ar.pdf

Most of the bad debt that is causing this problem is derived from bad mortgages.

 

[Gokul43201]

??

http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:i5qAjI4lEtMJ:www.aei.org/publications/pubID.22514/pub_detail.asp+In+February+2005,+the+House+Financial+Services+Committee+heard+testimony+from+Chairman+Greenspan+on+the+condition+of+the+economy.+After+his+prepared+testimony,+in+response+to+a+question+about+the+GSEs%27+portfolios,+Greenspan+noted,+%22We+have+found+no+reasonable+basis+for+that+portfolio+above+very+minimum+needs.%22+He+then+proposed&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

So the problem is not with the existence of GSEs but that they were, as of 2005, (after Johnson and Raines had both left) showing potential to continue to grow, continue to have the low capital and continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which would lead to significant risk.

PS: The "dynamic hedging" Greenspan was talking about happens on the aforementioned derivatives market. Were the GSEs such a big liability before they engaged in dynamic hedging?

 

[LowlyPion]

Word is from Congress that the Bailout package has been agreed to.

Congressman Paul Kanjorski was on CNBC awhile ago discussing the agreement that has been reached in the House and Senate as to the basic terms.

He said the candidates can just stay away. That they are not needed.

So McCain arrives in Washington with all his fire gear on and there's no fire for him to act like he is putting out.

Oh darn just when he thought he had figured out where the parade was heading so he could run to the front and act like he's leading it, they go in a different direction. Better catch the plane back to Oxford Mississippi before the country catches him playing the part of the fool again.

 

[Astronuc]

As I understand it, President Bush is planning to meet with McCain and Obama, which given that either will be president as of next January, is appropriate so that they understand what they will have to deal with. McCain and Obama are still US Senators so they should be present for the deliberations and voting on the bill.

 

[LowlyPion]

As I understand it, President Bush is planning to meet with McCain and Obama, which given that either will be president as of next January, is appropriate so that they understand what they will have to deal with. McCain and Obama are still US Senators so they should be present for the deliberations and voting on the bill.

Well I appreciate that. But the deliberations are over. The hearings are wrapped up. And the bills will be reported out of committee shortly, apparently with the votes need in both houses. The afternoon meeting looks like a photo op. It also looks like Bush pulling McCain's bacon put of the fire after his half cocked run to get to the head of the parade and play drum major.

Apparently Obama was the one that wanted to calm fears and issue a joint statement since McCain had adopted so many of his positions. Unfortunately it was McCain that two faced Obama and then rushed to press with his schemes to paint himself as presidential and rush back to Washington and try to cancel the debates. McCain's eagerness to play the part and try to set the agenda left him out on a limb, that Bush by calling the meeting today has given him a graceful way out. And now with the country having an economic solution in hand, it looks like his attempt to cancel the debate will land with a very un-presidential thud.

Watching McCain's performance this last week, the Nation may have more to fear from McCain's recklessness than from the Bible-thumping vacuous VP Palin. Bush after 8 years is finally looking better than McCain.

 

[Evo]

I haven't seen an update on whether McCain is going to show up for the debate. If he doesn't, it's going to look bad, IMO.

 

[LowlyPion]

I haven't seen an update on whether McCain is going to show up for the debate. If he doesn't, it's going to look bad, IMO.

He'll be there tail between his legs, acting no doubt like it was his idea to go ahead with the debates since he was able to straighten out things in Washington so quickly.

 

[Evo]

He'll be there tail between his legs, acting no doubt like it was his idea to go ahead with the debates since he was able to straighten out things in Washington so quickly.

I just spit my lunch onto my monitor.

Wow, you've been posting up a storm, just the other day you had 666 posts, now you're at 1,000 and that's not counting the 10,000 posts in here.

 

[LowlyPion]

Interesting that McCain said he was suspending his campaign. Suspending his media buys. Interesting because I saw this morning an attack ad trying to link Obama with people in Chicago, some of whom were claimed to have links to organized crime. A really mean-spirited mud slinging job.

"This message was approved by John McCain." dutifully appended at the bottom. What a dishonest fellow this McCain has turned out to be after all of his big talk in the primaries about honor and bringing Change, a new way of doing things, a reformer. What a load of rubbish now that he has revealed how two faced he is, how confused he is and ever so willing to claim other peoples positions and ideas as his own if they look like they are playing better, while at the same time frantically acting forcefully in unthoughtful ways simply to aggrandize himself - in some vain attempt to portray himself as decisive.

He finished at the bottom of his Class at The Academy. He deserves no better that that now as judged by his actions in this campaign than to finish last in the election as well.

 

[LowlyPion]

I just spit my lunch onto my monitor.

Wow, you've been posting up a storm, just the other day you had 666 posts, now you're at 1,000 and that's not counting the 10,000 posts in here.

Not that many here.

Though perhaps it's not the quantity that carries the perception of such weight?

 

[Evo]

It appears McCain's stunt has backfired.

One longtime GOP adviser who has been involved in past presidential campaigns and debates says that McCain's move will spin out one of two ways: If he goes back to Washington and is seen as a catalyst for a palatable solution to the crisis, it will be a "great way for McCain to stop his bleeding on the economy," the adviser said. "But it can also be seen as a transparent political ploy, when he could just as easily appear at the debate, insist the discussion be all about the economy, and talk this through with Obama." The adviser's prediction: It will play out as a political ploy.

Obama, taken by surprise with McCain's television appearance just minutes after the two had spoken, wasn't biting on the no-debate proposal. In a hastily arranged press conference in Florida, Obama said that the economic crisis makes the planned Friday debate in Mississippi—the first of three scheduled presidential matchups—"more important than ever."

"It's my belief that this is exactly the time that the American people need to hear from the person who in approximately 40 days will be responsible for dealing with this mess," Obama said. "It's going to be part of the president's job to deal with more than one thing at once." He demurred when asked by reporters whether McCain's move was a political ploy.

Rogers was among those questioning what McCain can actually do when he heads back to the nation's capital. "The sentiment on the Hill is that by 3 o'clock Saturday afternoon, a package is going to pass," he said. "It's going to be unpopular but probably necessary. And I don't know what McCain is going to do when he comes back here--he really doesn't have any jurisdictional authority over this matter."

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news...ain-suspends-campaign-shocks-republicans.html

I really think that a debate is needed, I can't believe how close we are to election day.

 

[Evo]

Not that many here.

Though perhaps it's not the quantity that carries the perception of such weight?

And modest to boot.

 

[turbo]

Obama says that he will be at the debate, with or without McCain, and if McCain does not show up, he will answer questions from the moderator and/or from the crowd, town-hall style. McCain still won't commit to the debate, but if he does not show up, Obama gets a lengthy network-televised show in which to lay out his ideas, and McCain will only be able to counter-attack from afar and after the fact.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/candidates_financial_meltdown;_ylt=AtxtKwjzfEmQdsS6ZuET9ESs0NUE