What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[lisab]

let yourself be silently drawn

by the stronger pull

of what you really love

A prerequisite for that to happen: having a quiet head.

 

[nismaratwork]

A prerequisite for that to happen: having a quiet head.

Or a charismatic leader with that message, but I don't see that in Egypt yet. To be fair, one may still emerge, or a round-table style. Besides, even in the midst of noise calls for peace can be heard; it's worked to some extent for the protesters in Egypt. The sad counterpoint is that calls to passion and violence seem so much more common.

 

[dlgoff]

I can't do this because I am not technically trained or well spoken. In addition I faint easily.

Even so, I for one am glad you're here. Whether you know it or not, you're doing your part in all this as well.

Thanks

 

[edpell]

Al Jazeera did a background piece today on the "April 6th" organization in Egypt that has been working for the last three year to bring change. On how they traveled to visit and learn from the guy who lead the movement that brought down Malosovic (sic?). Apparently this is just one a several groups that have been working over the recent years. So the take away message slow and steady wins the race.

 

[mugaliens]

The military has a well defined and stable management in place.

The new ruler needs to focus on the economy - everything else is a distraction. This would also throw cold water on the plans of any radical groups that might challenge. The reality of managing domestic economic problems would tend to weed-out the fast talking power hungry crowd.

If their military is anything like our military, its leaders know enough history/political science to wait things out, maintain a low profile while the new nation gets settled, and maintain general peace and order throughout.

I think they can manage that.

 

[nismaratwork]

Even so, I for one am glad you're here. Whether you know it or not, you're doing your part in all this as well.

Thanks

Well said, and seconded.

Mugaliens: Their military has a very close relationship with ours, and mutual training and the fact that military personnel are conscripted... I think your view may well come to pass.

Still... there's been a lot of posturing on the part of the military and the protesters, but not that Mubarak is gone, it will be interesting to see how this military copes. Remember, they had a special place in his regime, but based on a corrupt system; they're going to be the guarantors and engineers of their own economic and social plummet.

Hopefully greed and fear will not win, and as you say, history will teach them the appropriate lesson.

 

[Lacy33]

huh?... :!) ...it's happening... ...I'm so happy!
Stay safe...

 

[Proton Soup]

Guess what. I'm not even going to read the most current posts here. I spend some of yesterday just watching from the USA what was going on.
I heard the man from google say that he would like to meet the man who started facebook.
No names here because names are not so important.

What I took away from yesterdays event was that people like you. You here on PF are able to help.
Not here on the forum because this is a physics/science/math forum.
But it is people just like you, the kindhearted technical people who can get together and (help) make sure they do not get voting machines wired to vote in the "mb" or another group with an agenda.

I can't do this because I am not technically trained or well spoken. In addition I faint easily.
But you, many of you can get in on this and help.
From what I have seen many of you claim not to believe in a god and if you do you understand your science in a reasonable way compatible with your belief system. You are able to help usher in a secular government safe for all kinds of peoples to live in and around Egypt.
Please go and help these people. Some PFers are from the region.
We all need your technical help and levelheadedness.
Thanks

that's just it, i don't think it takes technically trained or well-spoken people at all. what they need is openness and oversight, eyes and ears on the ground. so that a few guys with a stack of ballots can't stuff the box while some goon guards the door to make sure no one comes in. Canadians seem to get by just fine on paper ballots and hand counting. perhaps they might also like to do as the iraqis did with thumbprints. but in my opinion, technology only adds to the possible mischief.

their willingness to cooperate, their ability to coordinate during the demonstrations shows that they are fully capable of making it work.

 

[Lacy33]

their willingness to cooperate, their ability to coordinate during the demonstrations shows that they are fully capable of making it work.

This was what struck me most was where this young people, so smart and aware were willing to die...to die... for freedom or to make a real difference, I heard an intelect I was only use to hearing here. It was the talk of the youth. And then I heard from one of these youth the night before they expected to die, he said this will be the first non violent protest in history. Or something very close. That they had both concepts in their head at the same time.

Now the simple folk like me should guard such diamonds from the likes of h*m*s? You want us simple folk to smile or pray them back away from the tasty little children and all that land and waterway?
I'm serious.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Guess what. I'm not even going to read the most current posts here. ... In addition I faint easily.

(Please don’t faint, read this, I’m sure it will make you feel better...)

I know you are very worried, and rightly so, but in current situation – my guess is there is no real need for 'panic'.

Sorry for joking, but haven’t you heard this one:

– Who is the Egypt Commander in Chief?
– Don’t you know?? Obama!​

It’s a joke, but probably not very far from reality... The U.S. aid is $ 22% of the total military budget (and my wild guess is these numbers are 'adjusted downward' in a 'diplomatic way'). This aid has been going on for 30 years, and another perspective would be to say that the U.S. has completely financed the Egyptian Armed Forces for 7 years out of last 30.

Almost all Egypt military equipment comes from the U.S. and a whole generation of Egypt officers has been trained in the U.S. This means something; they know each other... and trust each other... and they use the same "stuff"...

Even if some of the equipment is manufactured on license in Egypt, a sudden break in support from the U.S. will cause severe difficulties for the Egypt military commanders. (Don’t think their highest wish is to get more 'troubles' than they already got...)

Another positive thing is that Obama has only been President for 2 years (and he was 20 years old when Mubarak assumed the presidency in 1981), so it’s hard to 'blame' him for "supporting a dictator". Besides, one of the first things he did as President was making this speech in Cairo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BlqLwCKkeY

Obama’s middle name is Hussein, and his half-sister http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_Soetoro-Ng" was Kenyan (and first Muslim, later atheist). Obama is a "rock star" in Kenya (not 'that far' from Egypt, remember? ).

The family of Barack Obama is made up of people of African American, English, Kenyan, and Irish heritage. I can’t think of a better 'ambassador' for building a bridge between the Arabic and Western world.

IMHO, GWB (or even worse Sarah Palin) would be a catastrophic disaster in this situation...

The 'main character' among the Egypt protesters is the 30 year old http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wael_Ghonim" . He is married to an American and has two ("half American") children. He works for Google (the Head of Marketing of Google Middle East and North Africa) an American company, and he gives much of the credit for the success of protests to Facebook and Twitter, which of course is also American companies. Wael Ghonim also thanked CNN and other global news channels for showing the world the what happened in Egypt.

Remember: After Wael Ghonim’s emotional interview on national TV, the numbers of protesters increased significantly...

Looking "good"?

Wait, there’s more...

When the Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sami_Hafez_Anan" made a statement on national TV, the first thing he declared was this:

"Egypt is committed to our national and international treaties."​

What does this mean? Well, the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt-Israel_Peace_Treaty" will not be changed one bit.

Why should it?? When the 2011 Egyptian protests began, Sami Hafez Anan was in Washington "for a week of meetings with senior American officers":

Lt. Gen. William G. Webster, left, speaking with Gen. Anan

Would this man quit old friendship and billions of dollars and educational support and supplies of spare parts – to start a war with Israel and risk his and his military personnel lives – in this difficult situation? For what reason? To please MB?? Or Hamas!?

It doesn’t make sense, does it?

Why I’m happy for the evolution of the Egypt revolution is because there were no violence between the military and the people. The Egyptian Armed Forces are still heroes in the mind of the people. This is the key to a democratic and prosperous future for Egypt.

I’ve heard on the news that Hamas and the Iran leadership are cheering and celebrating...

Let them celebrate, if this turns out the way I and a large part of the world hope for – in a true Egypt democracy – it will be more 'lethal' to these dictators than any "military equipment" you can imagine.

Dictators thrive from a poor uneducated suppressed and terrorized population. If these 'incitements' are gone, so are the dictators.

I’m born an optimist and I never give up – the Egypt revolution will work and the world will be a better place tomorrow. Trust me.

And of course I agree completely with dlgoff!

Even so, I for one am glad you're here. Whether you know it or not, you're doing your part in all this as well.

Thanks

 

[mheslep]

[...]
I lived in Egypt for three years and have been back many times since. Please do visit Egypt. It is safer than many popular vacation destinations (I am thinking particularly of those many Caribbean island beaches ringed by armed guards). You will find few places where your tourist dollar goes as far. Two year ago I rented a modern, fully-furnished, three-bedroom flat on the Valley of the Kings side of the Nile in Luxor for $300 a week.[...]

I want to visit Egypt but I don't think Luxor will be my first choice after the tourist massacre there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxor_massacre

In the mid-morning attack, terrorists from the Islamic Group and Jihad Talaat al-Fath ("Holy War of the Vanguard of the Conquest") massacred 62 people at the attraction. The six assailants were armed with automatic firearms and knives, and disguised as members of the security forces. They descended on the Temple of Hatshepsut at around 08:45. With the tourists trapped inside the temple, the killing went on systematically for 45 minutes, during which many bodies, especially of women, were mutilated with machetes. A note praising Islam was found inside one disemboweled body.[4] The dead included a five-year-old British child and four Japanese couples on their honeymoons.[5][6]

 

[WhoWee]

If their military is anything like our military, its leaders know enough history/political science to wait things out, maintain a low profile while the new nation gets settled, and maintain general peace and order throughout.

I think they can manage that.

I agree - the military can provide stability while the populace finds a pragmatic leader. They need a strong manager - to solve problems - not just talk about it.

 

[Proton Soup]

I want to visit Egypt but I don't think Luxor will be my first choice after the tourist massacre there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxor_massacre

seems no one wants to associate themselves with this

After the event Hosni Mubarak replaced his Interior Minister, General Hassan al-Alfi, with General Habib al-Adly.

The tourist industry – in Egypt in general and in Luxor in particular – was seriously affected by the resultant slump in visitors and remained depressed until sinking even lower with the September 11 attacks in the United States in 2001, the July 23, 2005, Sharm el-Shiekh attacks, and the 2006 Dahab bombings.

The massacre, however, marked a decisive drop in Islamist terrorists' fortunes in Egypt by turning Egyptian public opinion overwhelmingly against them. Spontaneous demonstrations broke out in Luxor almost immediately against the terrorists, demanding action by the government and leading to a visit by Mubarak to the region a few days later.

Organizers and supporters of the attack quickly realized that the strike had been a massive miscalculation and reacted with denials of involvement. The day after the attack, Islamic Group leader Rifai Taha claimed the attackers intended only to take the tourists hostage, despite the evidence of the immediate and systematic nature of the slaughter. Others denied Islamist involvement completely. Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman blamed Israelis for the killings, and Ayman Zawahiri maintained the attack was the work of the Egyptian police.[8][9]

 

[turbo]

I agree - the military can provide stability while the populace finds a pragmatic leader. They need a strong manager - to solve problems - not just talk about it.

Ahmed Zewail and Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei would be my top picks, right now. They are scientists, thinkers, Nobel Prize winners... Egypt's economic problems may be knotty and hard to address, and restructuring their business policies and monetary policies might be challenging after years of kleptocracy, but I'll bet these fellows could make significant progress, while overseeing the re-writing of Egypt's constitution. Egypt has significant hurdles ahead, but they are not without resources, both ethical and intellectual. I am hopeful.

 

[mheslep]

I may be thinking of the wrong post here (can you show which one you're talking about?), but I believe the claim was that MB publicly denounces AQ, which is a statement of fact.

Well let's stipulate that's what the post said. The fact, to be precise, is that some MB website authors wrote a piece denouncing AQ.

That the present leadership of AQ includes former members of the MB says what exactly?

That former, or even active, members of the US Military are found among the membership of Aryan Nations, or the Black Liberation Army, or the KKK doesn't imply that the military supports these organizations.

Those examples would be of someone embedded in US military who holds views antithetical to the organization, certainly to the views espoused by the leadership of the US military.

Zawahiri helped establish MB cells in Egypt while he was there, he was http://books.google.com/books?id=8d...ht looming tower&pg=PA37#v=onepage&q&f=false"

 

[nismaratwork]

Well let's stipulate that's what the post said. The fact, to be precise, is that some MB website authors wrote a piece denouncing AQ.

Those examples would be of someone embedded in US military who holds views antithetical to the organization, certainly to the views espoused by the leadership of the US military.

Zawahiri helped establish MB cells in Egypt while he was there, he was http://books.google.com/books?id=8d...ht looming tower&pg=PA37#v=onepage&q&f=false"

He was... and then he was forced to flee. Frankly, Mubarak did a very good job crushing the militant types in the MB; they're not tame, but they're nothing like Hamas or Hezbollah or AQ/AQiAP.

Besides, Egypt is not monolithic, and I cannot imagine them accepting a theocracy, nor would the military tolerate it.

 

[klimatos]

I want to visit Egypt but I don't think Luxor will be my first choice after the tourist massacre there.

That incident is extremely unlikely to be repeated. I have been back to Luxor three times since that 1997 killing, and have never felt the least bit threatened. It is still one of the world's most popular destinations. Seeing Egypt without seeing Luxor is like seeing the Holy Land without seeing Jerusalem; or seeing Orlando without seeing Disneyworld. It can certainly be done, but why?

If you are going to avoid places where mass killings took place sometime in the past, your travels are going to be extremely limited.

 

[WhoWee]

Ahmed Zewail and Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei would be my top picks, right now. They are scientists, thinkers, Nobel Prize winners... Egypt's economic problems may be knotty and hard to address, and restructuring their business policies and monetary policies might be challenging after years of kleptocracy, but I'll bet these fellows could make significant progress, while overseeing the re-writing of Egypt's constitution. Egypt has significant hurdles ahead, but they are not without resources, both ethical and intellectual. I am hopeful.

My concern with academics is they lack experience with real world economics and management. How are they qualified to restructure business and monetary policies?

I've heard this mentioned quite a few times in the past two days and I ask - what is wrong with Egypt's banking and insurance industries? What is wrong with the operation of the Suez Canal? Last, other than security issues, what is wrong with the tourism industry?

Egypt needs new industries and new opportunities. It needs to attract fresh investment capital. The problem is that can be said for most countries at this time.

As for the re-writing of the constitution - does it need to be burned and re-drafted or just tweaked?

Your description sounds like radical political and economic change to me - but the problem appears to be high unemployment and lack of opportunity?

My point is this - if it ain't broke - don't fix it. Egypt is not Haiti, or Somalia, or even Iraq - it wasn't reduced to rubble by natural causes or man made disaster. Egypt continues to function after a few weeks of uncertainty and political unrest.

IMO - the last thing they need is an idealogue (IMO).

 

[turbo]

My concern with academics is they lack experience with real world economics and management. How are they qualified to restructure business and monetary policies?

I've heard this mentioned quite a few times in the past two days and I ask - what is wrong with Egypt's banking and insurance industries?.

I'll address just this point for now. If the US government collapsed, would you trust our banking and insurance businesses to restructure it? I certainly wouldn't. If you can provide any support for that idea, I'd love to see it. The people shuffling wealth around Egypt certainly made lots of money by taking advantage of their relationships with the Mubarak family. That does NOT make them trustworthy partners in restructuring Eqypt's economy. Glenn Beck might endorse that idea, but I'd have a hard time finding any support for that notion, even among my more conservative associates.

 

[WhoWee]

I'll address just this point for now. If the US government collapsed, would you trust our banking and insurance businesses to restructure it? I certainly wouldn't. If you can provide any support for that idea, I'd love to see it. The people shuffling wealth around Egypt certainly made lots of money by taking advantage of their relationships with the Mubarak family. That does NOT make them trustworthy partners in restructuring Eqypt's economy. Glenn Beck might endorse that idea, but I'd have a hard time finding any support for that notion, even among my more conservative associates.

What are you talking about turbo? Did you read my post?

What is wrong with the way the Suez Canal, the insurance industry, and the banking industry in Egypt operate? Why do these successful industries need to be restructured? What needs to be restructured?

If you go back a few pages I inquired whether Mubarak owned any of these industries - is there proof he does?

 

[turbo]

What are you talking about turbo? Did you read my post?

What is wrong with the way the Suez Canal, the insurance industry, and the banking industry in Egypt operate? Why do these successful industries need to be restructured? What needs to be restructured?

If you go back a few pages I inquired whether Mubarak owned any of these industries - is there proof he does?

Yes, I did read your post, and I take some opposition to the notion to the idea that any financial interests should be allowed to determine how the basic financial policies of a large country should be written. Creeps with purely financial interests should not be allowed to direct the restructuring of Egypt's financial rules. I think that is sufficiently clear. I don't know how much more clarification is necessary, but IMO, the kleptocracy needs to be eliminated and excised.

 

[WhoWee]

Yes, I did read your post, and I take some opposition to the notion to the idea that any financial interests should be allowed to determine how the basic financial policies of a large country should be written. Creeps with purely financial interests should not be allowed to direct the restructuring of Egypt's financial rules. I think that is sufficiently clear. I don't know how much more clarification is necessary, but IMO, the kleptocracy needs to be eliminated and excised.

How can you be this certain - and yet can't tell me what is actually wrong with the operation of the Suez Canal, the Egyptian banks, and the Insurance industry that services the canal?

What do you think needs to be done - aside from eliminating and excising kleptocracy (not sure what that means)? I don't want to make assumptions or put words in your mouth?

 

[Al68]

If the US government collapsed, would you trust our banking and insurance businesses to restructure it?

Are you referring to restructuring the government or the economy? If you mean the economy, the U.S. economy historically prospered because it was unstructured, ie mostly free market.

Yes, I did read your post, and I take some opposition to the notion to the idea that any financial interests should be allowed to determine how the basic financial policies of a large country should be written.

I don't think your "opposition" is necessary, since as far as I can tell, no one is espousing such an idea. Of course in an economically free country, each financial institution (or any business or person) determines its own financial policy. That would be a fresh change for Egypt (and the U.S. for that matter).

 

[OmCheeto]

Are you referring to restructuring the government or the economy? If you mean the economy, the U.S. economy historically prospered because it was unstructured, ie mostly free market.I don't think your "opposition" is necessary, since as far as I can tell, no one is espousing such an idea. Of course in an economically free country, each financial institution (or any business or person) determines its own financial policy. That would be a fresh change for Egypt (and the U.S. for that matter).

Zip! muffle muffle muffle!

 

[Al68]

Zip! muffle muffle muffle!

Am I missing an inside joke or something? I must be slow today because I have no idea what that means.

Edit: I googled that phrase and got exactly one hit: your post. So I don't feel so ignorant after all. It would be nice to know what it means, though.

 

[Lacy33]

Zip! muffle muffle muffle!

Perhaps OM was following the saying "Only speak if you can improve the silence."

 

[nismaratwork]

My interpreation is the sound of someone doing the "zipping across the lips" action, then the sound of someone speaking "Neo" style after the Agents took his mouth.
Or... what Lacy said, which (and no I am not taking a side in this) is a GREAT axiom.

Still, I've lost trrack fo this chat, so I'm just interpreting, again, no sides (yet)... give me a chance to read up a bit.

 

[Astronuc]

For now it seems - Egypt's new military authorities say they are dissolving parliament and suspending the constitution.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12443678

. . . .
The current constitution has prevented many parties and groups from standing in elections, leaving Egypt with a parliament packed with supporters of the National Democratic Party, loyal to Mr Mubarak.

Our correspondent says the new announcement means elections could be held in July or August, instead of in September as planned.
. . . .

 

[OmCheeto]

Am I missing an inside joke or something? I must be slow today because I have no idea what that means.

Edit: I googled that phrase and got exactly one hit: your post. So I don't feel so ignorant after all. It would be nice to know what it means, though.

Odd. It's the https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=3111363#post3111363" I've done that.

But Nismar is correct. It is me zipping my lips shut and shouting in anger.

I guess as a non-Liberatarian, I will never view reality as you do.

Of course in an economically free country, each financial institution (or any business or person) determines its own financial policy. That would be a fresh change for Egypt (and the U.S. for that matter).

I can only look back at our financial institutions, and pray that Egypt doesn't have to deal with this kind of crap.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=365339"

Regardless of whether the kleptocracy is government or private industry, at a certain point, entities become too large, and corruption seeps in, and hence my promotion of financial regulation, and strong government oversight to make sure one of the monkeys doesn't end up with all the banana's.

"[URL
The children of Gordon Gekko[/URL]
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
October 06, 2008

...

And this is very much a values debate: Gordon Gekko, greed and immediate gratification as against a culture that values a fair go, that values hard work and that values thinking about and preparing for tomorrow.

 

[OmCheeto]

Step 1: Sweep the streets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvk25tHonbk

Step 2: Listen to the people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hcqk47ezdgY

It sounds to me like the Egyptians know what they are facing.

 

[nismaratwork]

Step 1: Sweep the streets.


Step 2: Listen to the people.

It sounds to me like the Egyptians know what they are facing.

They've certainly been showing the way so far! I think it's important to remember that part of why this happened is the emrgence of an educated (not necessarily economically) middle class. I believe the peaceful nature of this had a LOT to do with strategy, and that alone says a great deal about the nature and possible future for this country.

If the military can seal the cracks so that corruption is limited, new governments should be able to regulate in concentric circles from lower levels of government on up to the military. That last of course, is going to be decades (at least) away, because any president of Egypt is going to be there at the suffrage of the people AND the military establishment.

Fortunately it would appear that while top brass would love to continue to pull fat paychecks, there is a younger generation that is less concerned with that. Even that older guard seems to have realized that if they try to hold on to EVERYTHING here, they'll lose everything.

 

[Al68]

Odd. It's the https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=3111363#post3111363" I've done that.

But Nismar is correct. It is me zipping my lips shut and shouting in anger.

OK, I get it now. But there is no reason for anger.

I can only look back at our financial institutions, and pray that Egypt doesn't have to deal with this kind of crap.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=365339"

Regardless of whether the kleptocracy is government or private industry, at a certain point, entities become too large, and corruption seeps in, and hence my promotion of financial regulation, and strong government oversight to make sure one of the monkeys doesn't end up with all the banana's.

That just doesn't make sense given the reality of the situation, that our financial institutions being corrupted by government imposed policies directly caused the problems, but this is the wrong thread to get into it.

 

[OmCheeto]

OK, I get it now. But there is no reason for anger.

That just doesn't make sense given the reality of the situation, that our financial institutions being corrupted by government imposed policies directly caused the problems, but this is the wrong thread to get into it.

Our financial institutions being corrupted by government imposed policies directly caused the problems?

I sure hope the Egyptians are better at sifting out the "you will be better off if no one is in charge" wall street mumbo jumbo than we are.

hmmm...

Perhaps I listen to too much subversive music:

Because the old guard still offends.
(Their pudgy hearts and slimy hands)
They got nothing left on which we depend.
So enlist every ounce
Of your bright blood.
And off with their heads.

Jump from the hook.
You're not obliged to swallow anything you despise,
That you despise.

 

[nismaratwork]

Our financial institutions being corrupted by government imposed policies directly caused the problems?

I sure hope the Egyptians are better at sifting out the "you will be better off if no one is in charge" wall street mumbo jumbo than we are.
hmmm...

Perhaps I listen to too much subversive music:

re bolded: I think everyone here can agree on THAT!

 

[WhoWee]

re bolded: I think everyone here can agree on THAT!

I'm not even sure what that means - didn't most of the big names on Wall Street back President Obama in the last election?

My question (to turbo that started this part of the debate) still hasn't been answered. What specifically is wrong with the largest industries in Egypt? Why do they need to restructure the operation of the Suez Canal, their banks, and their insurance industry (that services the canal)? What kind of restructuring is necessary? I also inquired about tourism - other than security the past few weeks - what is wrong with the industry?

A political change was called for and the new leadership needs to find a way to help grow the economy - to reduce unemployment. How does "restructuring" the leading industries achieve that goal? To achieve a 10% unemployment rate - they need to reduce unemployment by 23% (?) - that's about 18 million jobs -- and they want to raise wages?

That's going to require more than re-writing the constitution and ideological rhetoric. IMO - they should not jeopardize the successful business segments - or they could collapse the entire economy.