What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[AlephZero]

This might be why?:
...
''The attackers would eventually come to be identified as Islamist nationalists associated with the Muslim Brotherhood under the name of Islamic Jihad. "

More FUD, aimed at the ignorant west. By definition, every Islamist on the planet is "associated". Look up the meaning of the Arabic word "ummah".

This is no more significant than claiming the Arizona shooter was "associated with opposition Republicans under the name of the Tea Party" in the US.

 

[AlephZero]

I know. The people there need to stay calm and I don't know what will help becasue he is babbling and no one is listening. The crowd is starting up.

Agree, this is a catastrophe.

It's not a catastrophe yet. But it will turn into one if some Western goons decide they know how to end it better than the Egyptians do, for example this guy:

0126: Larry Korb of the liberal Center for American Progress think tank in Washington tells the BBC the transition has begun: "Whether it's going to be smooth or not I think is the key issue. The [Obama] administration has finally decided Mubarak's got to go, we need a Democratic Egypt, and we're willing to face the consequences."

Source: BBC News website - my emphasis.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

i'm not sure why the Muslim Brotherhood keeps coming up as a bogeyman. lots of FUD is delivered, but no real evidence other than the fact that they've got "muslim" in their name.

I agree in most you say, and you may be right again, but personally I see some real "troubling stuff" in MB.

Example: Go to http://www.ikhwanweb.com/links.php" with this subtitle:

"Brotherhood phobia" ... Dialectics America and the Zionists against the Muslim Brotherhood​

So what comes first – the chicken or the egg? This is just a "Brotherhood phobia"...??

Well, let’s stick to facts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood"

Muslim Brotherhood
...
The MB is a movement, not a political party, but members have created political parties in several countries, such as the Islamic Action Front in Jordan and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank. These parties are staffed by Brotherhood members but kept independent from the MB to some degree, unlike Hizb ut-Tahrir which is highly centralized.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hizb_ut-Tahrir"

Hizb ut-Tahrir

Hizb ut-Tahrir is an international pan-Islamic political organisation whose goal is for all Muslim countries to unify as an Islamic state or caliphate ruled by Islamic law and with a caliph head of state elected by Muslims.

I’m not an American or Zionist, but this scare the sh*t out of me, and I can understand if people in Israel get much more worried than me... I wouldn’t call that a "phobia" of any kind... it looks like reality to me...

Do I need to say that Hamas has been explicit in its Holocaust Denial. (! :O)

A war between Israel and Hamas backed up by an "Islamic Egypt Caliphate" with 500,000 active personnel 500,000 reserve is the last thing the world needs.

I have several times heard representatives from MB answering the question: Would you make Egypt an Islamic state and implement Sharia laws?

– Yes, but only if that’s what the people want.​

Sharia laws would mean the brutal end of any seed of a real democracy, and on top of that – between 5 to 15 million native Egyptian Christians (Copts) would not be welcomed in that society = BIG PROBLEMS.

I don’t want to be over-pessimistic, there’s no need for that now, as MB has only approx 15-20%, BUT if some "external part" where to change this "balance", I truly think the whole world is in deep trouble.

We’ve seen great pictures of mixed groups of Muslims and Christians. That’s great.

But let’s be realistic and also see things that are maybe not so nice.

I put my money on the "on-line youth", Revolution 2.0 and the words of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wael_Ghonim" :

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1102/09/acd.01.html"

GHONIM: Muslim Brotherhood was not involved at all in the organization of this. Muslim Brotherhood announced that they're not going to participate officially. And they said if the young guys want to join, if their young guys want to join, they're not going to tell them no.

If you want to free a society, just give them Internet access, because people are going to -- the young crowds are going to all go out and see and hear the unbiased media, see the truth about, you know, other nations and their own nation, and they're going to be able to communicate and collaborate together.

WATSON: Was this an Internet revolution?

GHONIM: Definitely, this is the Internet revolution. I will call it revolution 2.0.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wael_Ghonim"

 

[Gokul43201]

I’m not an American or Zionist, but this scare the sh*t out of me, and I can understand if people in Israel get much more worried than me... I wouldn’t call that a "phobia" of any kind... it looks like reality to me...

It's not clear to me exactly what's scaring you. Hizb is not a part of MB, nor associated with it in any direct or operational way, so I don't see the relevance of the passage you quoted from the Hizb wiki page. Hizb and MB, where they coexist, tend to follow rather different approaches (e.g., Hizb supports armed resistance, MB does not).

 

[WhoWee]

I did - I watched both videos. What am I missing?

I don't think you missed anything. Clapper's body language (hand movements and expressions) were very unusual - quite odd.

 

[nismaratwork]

Well, this would seem to have taken a turn for the potentially violent. Tonight is relatively calm (for mass protests), but the military has to make a choice, and they're out of time.

Tomorrow we may well see the Egyptian army kill fellow Egyptians, either civilians, or Republican Guard. That really COULD lead to the Somalia scenario (yes WhoWee, the one you tried to point out to me), but with the Suez...?

I think this is the first time in this entire process that I've felt fear at the prospects for the region. We can only hope that Suleiman can explain that SOMEONE has to run a country, but so far his words do not seem to be hitting the right notes. I also hope that this isn't an attempt to marginalize protesters and create violence to force the hand of the military.

 

[WhoWee]

More FUD, aimed at the ignorant west. By definition, every Islamist on the planet is "associated". Look up the meaning of the Arabic word "ummah".

This is no more significant than claiming the Arizona shooter was "associated with opposition Republicans under the name of the Tea Party" in the US.

Basically, you are saying the Muslim Brotherhood has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Islamic extremeists - now or ever - no connections?

Because that would be the correct comparison to the Arizona shooter and the Republicans and Tea Party.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

It's not clear to me exactly what's scaring you. Hizb is not a part of MB, nor associated with it in any direct or operational way, so I don't see the relevance of the passage you quoted from the Hizb wiki page. Hizb and MB, where they coexist, tend to follow rather different approaches (e.g., Hizb supports armed resistance, MB does not).

I think you have to blame Wikipedia who has no more than 6 references/links to Hizb ut-Tahrir on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood

For me, the relevance is that both want to create Islamic states and Sharia laws, if the opportunity is there. I hope you are not denying this?

I also hope you are not denying the connection between the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, and that Hamas do support armed resistance?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Nismar welcome back!

 

[turbo]

Basically, you are saying the Muslim Brotherhood has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Islamic extremeists - now or ever - no connections?

Because that would be the correct comparison to the Arizona shooter and the Republicans and Tea Party.

You are putting words in the mouth of somebody who probably planned no such slant in this complex situation. Why?

Please just discuss the facts as they are made available to us. There is no need to make an idealogical battle over every single thread in this forum.

 

[turbo]

Nismar welcome back!

Hi, Nismar!

 

[Proton Soup]

I agree in most you say, and you may be right again, but personally I see some real "troubling stuff" in MB.

Example: Go to http://www.ikhwanweb.com/links.php" with this subtitle:

"Brotherhood phobia" ... Dialectics America and the Zionists against the Muslim Brotherhood​

i couldn't find what you're referring to. the pic didn't link, and the islamonline site is all in arabic.

So what comes first – the chicken or the egg? This is just a "Brotherhood phobia"...??

Well, let’s stick to facts.

I’m not an American or Zionist, but this scare the sh*t out of me, and I can understand if people in Israel get much more worried than me... I wouldn’t call that a "phobia" of any kind... it looks like reality to me...

Do I need to say that Hamas has been explicit in its Holocaust Denial. (! :O)

A war between Israel and Hamas backed up by an "Islamic Egypt Caliphate" with 500,000 active personnel 500,000 reserve is the last thing the world needs.

I have several times heard representatives from MB answering the question: Would you make Egypt an Islamic state and implement Sharia laws?

– Yes, but only if that’s what the people want.​

Sharia laws would mean the brutal end of any seed of a real democracy, and on top of that – between 5 to 15 million native Egyptian Christians (Copts) would not be welcomed in that society = BIG PROBLEMS.

I don’t want to be over-pessimistic, there’s no need for that now, as MB has only approx 15-20%, BUT if some "external part" where to change this "balance", I truly think the whole world is in deep trouble.

We’ve seen great pictures of mixed groups of Muslims and Christians. That’s great.

well, to be honest, I'm not sure israel's chances of real democracy are solid, either. as it stands, they want to ethnically cleanse west bank and gaza and only offer citizenship to those who are jewish. so, they're religious as well, with their own problems. and then, US seems to be quite friendly with the openly islamist regime of saudi arabia, supplying them with the same tanks as egypt. so, what I'm seeing is not a lot of consistency on the issue of religious governments.

 

[WhoWee]

You are putting words in the mouth of somebody who probably planned no such slant in this complex situation. Why?

Please just discuss the facts as they are made available to us. There is no need to make an idealogical battle over every single thread in this forum.

This is what he posted:(my bold)

"Originally Posted by AlephZero
More FUD, aimed at the ignorant west. By definition, every Islamist on the planet is "associated". Look up the meaning of the Arabic word "ummah".

This is no more significant than claiming the Arizona shooter was "associated with opposition Republicans under the name of the Tea Party" in the US. "

Where am I incorrect? As for the battle over every single thread in this forum - YOU just waded into OUR discussion?

 

[Lacy33]

Hi, Nismar!

Hey! WB Nismar!

 

[Evo]

Nismar welcome back!

Welcome back!

 

[WhoWee]

Welcome back!

Ok Nismar - here it is (sung to Kotter ...sort of sounds like Nismar?):

http://www.squidoo.com/welcome-back-kotter-merchandise

 

[nismaratwork]

Thanks Evo, Lacy, Turbo, DA, and yes, thank you WhoWee. Back To Kotter...

Definitely need some levity while we wait to see what happens in the morning in Egypt. Uncertain times...

 

[Lacy33]

It is morning in Egypt. The day is breaking looking on over the square. Many did not sleep at all. 6:30ish am.

 

[nismaratwork]

Indeed, and now they'll be hearing from their imams, who as they would say, Insha'Allah this will be peaceful. I HOPE that's what is being preached, because there are going to be a lot of very frustrated and angry men and women out there tomorrow. The military needs to act decisively, or I think Egypt really may self-destruct... which is amazing to contemplate really.

I know they receive massive patronage from the Mubarak regime, but still, I didn't expect this. I wonder if there is a disconnect coming between the general staff and the commanders in the field... that would be disastrous.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

'Rumblings' from CNN – Mubarak has left Cairo...??

 

[WhoWee]

'Rumblings' from CNN – Mubarak has left Cairo...??

It was reported earlier that he went to a seaside palace for the weekend.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

It was reported earlier that he went to a seaside palace for the weekend.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/egyp...wealth-days-military/story?id=12821073&page=2

The Mubarak family owns properties in London, Paris, Madrid, Dubai, Washington, D.C., New York and Frankfurt, according to a report from IHS Global Insight.

If he’s gone to Dubai he’s not returning...


EDIT:
CNN says Sharm el-Sheikh, which is almost as 'promising'...


EDIT2:
Of course Mubarak is a professional mythomaniac and this is probably another smokescreen.

 

[WhoWee]

CNN says Sharm el-Sheikh, which is almost as 'promising'...

That is consistent to the report I hear earlier - Mubarak’s seaside home in Sharm el Sheikh.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Sorry for laughing.

CNN: "Hosni Mubarak has a PhD in stubbornness."

 

[nismaratwork]

Given reports that the republican guard aren't slaugtering the people in front of the palace, I'd say those rumors get an extra bit of credibility. Maybe he just needs to move out in baby steps, or maybe he's really trying to wait this out.

HOPEFULLY he's getting ready to bolt.

 

[WhoWee]

Given reports that the republican guard aren't slaugtering the people in front of the palace, I'd say those rumors get an extra bit of credibility. Maybe he just needs to move out in baby steps, or maybe he's really trying to wait this out.

HOPEFULLY he's getting ready to bolt.

I caught bits and pieces of legal analysis and an interview with Egyptian Amb to US last evening. It seems that if he had resigned, the office of President would have transferred to someone other than VP. It sound as though all of the other items he touched on in his speech yesterday were required to make the transfer legal and to allow for a change in legal procedure?

I've posted this without greater specificity as I (admittedly) don't know anything about the Laws of Egypt - label this post IMO please. If someone is familiar with the laws - please clarify?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

i couldn't find what you're referring to. the pic didn't link, and the islamonline site is all in arabic.

I know, there’s some trouble with the access. It works now though, and here’s a http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.islamonline.net%2Far%2FIOLArticle_C%2F1278407438955%2F1278406720653%2FIOLArticle_C" and in case this doesn’t work either, here’s a picture of the first paragraphs:

(The translation is not 'perfect', but enough to get the overall message...)

well, to be honest, I'm not sure israel's chances of real democracy are solid, either. as it stands, they want to ethnically cleanse west bank and gaza and only offer citizenship to those who are jewish. so, they're religious as well, with their own problems. and then, US seems to be quite friendly with the openly islamist regime of saudi arabia, supplying them with the same tanks as egypt. so, what I'm seeing is not a lot of consistency on the issue of religious governments.

Yes, world politics is not a kindergarten of "Peace, Love & Understanding", money rules and if you have to play with the devil to get the dough – you play with the devil.

You are smart, but I really don’t understand in what way the world would be better by yet another religious dictatorship in control of a large army? In what way would the world be better if Hamas get advanced heavy military equipment from "the brothers" in Egypt? In what way would the world be better if MB gets in power and the first thing they do is canceling the peace treaty with Israel?

I don’t understand how this could be a good thing...??

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... If someone is familiar with the laws - please clarify?

I’m afraid the only one who can answer this question is Mubarak...?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

HOPEFULLY he's getting ready to bolt.

Yup!


(I’m just guessing but – sometimes this looks like one 83-year-old man’s fight for his ridiculous "pride", not the life of 80 millions...)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

*** President Hosni Mubarak has stepped down! ***

VICTORY! HISTORY! VICTORY! HISTORY! VICTORY! HISTORY!

 

[Lacy33]

Congratulations young Egypt! You are very powerful. Now go and do more good...

 

[turbo]

Reports are coming out that Mubarak has handed over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Let's see what happens...

 

[Gokul43201]

I think you have to blame Wikipedia who has no more than 6 references/links to Hizb ut-Tahrir on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood

I think using the reference count from a wiki page to draw conclusions about what academics and intelligence agencies spend thousands of man-hours on might be a bit of an oversimplification.

For me, the relevance is that both want to create Islamic states and Sharia laws, if the opportunity is there. I hope you are not denying this?

Yes, and no. Hizb is a centralized body in which everyone is closely aligned with the principles espoused by leadership. MB is a much more disparate body where some parts in some places want different things than other parts in other places. There are extreme radicals and fairly liberal moderates in the MB, but in general, their public facade has recently been somewhat on the moderate side.

Take a look also at the explanation that the MB provides on their website for their idea of an Islamic State:

In accordance with article 77 of the draft, people are born free, equal in dignity, rights and liberties without any discrimination based on origin, language, religion, or color, and they have to treat one another as brethrens. ... It should also be stressed that the article includes the word “people”, an inclusive neutral word in the Islamic heritage, which expels any kind of discrimination based on sex or religion.
...
It is also stressed in article 88, which says that each individual has freedom of thought, ideology, and religion. ...This means that the articles of the draft excluded the divisions set up by ancient scholars. For example, the draft did not determine religion when recording rights. It only mentioned the word “individual”, a clear expunction of the notion of dthimmah (custody of non-Muslims). ... It never stipulated for parliamentary membership affiliation with a particular religion or cult. Rather, as obvious in article 4, the draft stipulates that the member be an Egyptian.

More here: http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=810

That, to me, sounds a lot more moderate than the form of Shari'a practiced by Saudi Arabia and perhaps even tamer than the form of mixed Islamic-civil law used by the other Middle Eastern Kingdoms and Dictatorships that are considered benign, and West friendly, and rarely cause people to become extremely worried about them. Kuwait, for instance, a close ally of the US, since the early 90s, is a dictatorship that denied women the right to vote until five years ago. How nervous have you been about Kuwait? In Saudi Arabia, a women can not legally step outside the house without permission from a male member of the family. Sharia is prevalent in most civil law and some criminal law in Qatar, the home of the largest US naval base in the Persian Gulf. Even in the relatively ultra-liberal UAE, Sharia is used in civil/family law - if you take a weekend vacation with a girlfriend and stay in the same hotel room, you will be arrested.

I also hope you are not denying the connection between the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, and that Hamas do support armed resistance?

It seems like you are ignoring the passages you quoted before where it explains the loose-knit nature of the MB. What the MB looks like in Gaza need not be what it looks like in Egypt. That's not to say that it isn't, just that you have to be careful when you make generalizations about a group as disparate and varied (not to mention somewhat secretive and nebulous) as the MB.

Also, I'm curious about whether there has been a single leader in the ME that has publicly denounced Hamas.

 

[jtbell]

He finally saw the hieroglyphics on the wall.

 

[mheslep]

.
...
Also, I'm curious about whether there has been a single leader in the ME that has publicly denounced Hamas.

I suspect every single Israeli prime minister has done so.