What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

[Lacy33]

Party time!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

The ruling party headquarters is definitely on fire.

 

[lisab]

WOW! CNN is reporting that in Alexandria, the soldiers and protesters are embracing each other! The soldiers are joining and supporting the protesters! WOW that's great!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Party time!

yup

 

[DevilsAvocado]

WOW! CNN is reporting that in Alexandria, the soldiers and protesters are embracing each other! The soldiers are joining and supporting the protesters! WOW that's great!

WOW WOW WOW! CNN: "Carnival atmosphere" !

 

[DevilsAvocado]

CNN: If President Mubarak decides to hold the speech – Who is left to listen to him …


MuuHaHa!

 

[Lacy33]

WOW WOW WOW! CNN: "Carnival atmosphere" !

Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

 

[nismaratwork]

Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

Hmmm... that does often seem to be the way. Maybe Mubarak is gone, maybe the military commands enough respect to defuse Tonight's demonstrations.

I'm not sure what all of this means, so I'm inclined to take your view Lacy, or the other possible explanation for the military behavior, which is that Mubarak has left Egypt. We won't get to see until the curtain is pulled, eh?


The army clearly has control... so the question now is... does Mubarak have control of the army? If so, then we may see this as the PEAK of demonstrations, and no revolution.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

Lacy... this is maybe not the time for jokes... but do you mean the "Iron Lion Zion"...?

 

[WhoWee]

Or like circus. We have been seeing the clowns and monkey's. I would like to see the Lion now.

Careful what you wish for...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

The army clearly has control... so the question now is... does Mubarak have control of the army? If so, then we may see this as the PEAK of demonstrations, and no revolution.

If Mubarak doesn’t get the $$$$ from the USA there is no control... and what you could tell from Hillary Clinton now there’s some 'restrictions' on these bucks...

 

[Lacy33]

Careful what you wish for...

I know.

 

[Proton Soup]

WOW! CNN is reporting that in Alexandria, the soldiers and protesters are embracing each other! The soldiers are joining and supporting the protesters! WOW that's great!

that is interesting. but i wonder if this is a breaking of ranks or if the entire army is refusing to cooperate with the gov't?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

According to SVT the government has lost the control... and there seem to be some 'general confusion'... the police fired teargas, which landed in among the military...

 

[drankin]

Stocks are down in the US as a result. Crude oil went up 2%.

 

[nismaratwork]

Stocks are down in the US as a result. Crude oil went up 2%.

I'm honestly impressed that they didn't do worse! 4 days, and it's martial law, and tanks in the streets; if I were an investor in anything to do with Egypt I'd be finding religion right now.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/2...y-put-cnn-camera-confiscated/?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

Yeah, seems like the hugging is done, and now it's just a huge leadership vacuum. People are out and completely violating curfew, they've challenged the police, and the police retreated rather than slaughter their own people. If this goes further, Mubarak is cooked... 82 is a good retirement age.

DA: The police are very thuggish in Egypt (not the equivalent of patrolmen) when it comes to riot squads, and plain-clothes squads. The military is actually quite respected, hence the warm welcome for them while burning government buildings. These people seem VERY specific about one thing: Mubarak... go away. I'm ashamed at how timid the US response has been (white house, not individual)... wait. and. see.

 

[Char. Limit]

I have a ton of things to do today...but I just want to sit and watch this, it's like real-time history.

Yep. Revolution. Isn't it fun?

But seriously, I pray that the people of Egypt will receive the democracy they're asking for, and let it not be hijacked by anti-American groups. Much of the people of America are on your side, Egypt!

 

[CAC1001]

So basically this is a 50/50 situation right now that could go either way? Like Egypt could become a liberal democracy and U.S. ally by choice of the people instead of via a dictator, or it could get taken over by the Islamic Brotherhood and become very anti-U.S...?

 

[Char. Limit]

So basically this is a 50/50 situation right now that could go either way? Like Egypt could become a liberal democracy and U.S. ally by choice of the people instead of via a dictator, or it could get taken over by the Islamic Brotherhood and become very anti-U.S...?

I'm not sure if those are the exact odds, but I think you have it pretty accurately.

 

[lisab]

Wow, I bet Israel is *worried*.

 

[Evo]

Wow, I bet Israel is *worried*.

I guess similar to how we'd feel if Canada and Mexico became Iran.

But what I'm reading is that it will hopefully not be a fanatic muslim takeover. It seems there is no plan, so anyone can take control at this point. Unfortunately, from what I've also read, no one is capable of stepping in and fixing things at this time.

 

[WhoWee]

Wow, I bet Israel is *worried*.

No doubt. Personally, I'm worried more about the fate of the Suez Canal $200 bbl oil is a real possibility.

 

[nismaratwork]

I don't think that Egypt is going to change as much as some of you seem to expect. Mubarak's time is definitely up, but revolution? If thn military refuses to fight the people, that's it... the police (by accounts) have already fled, and their various stations and headquarters ransacked.

It comes down to what the Egyptian people want, how much they want it, and in the end it all comes down to whether or not the military will move from a protective role, and begin to kill their own people...
...remember, that is NOT what they signed up for, but we'll see.

I also don't see that this can be leveraged into an "islamic revolution"... that's just not what's on the street from what's being reported.

I think this represents a period of (violent) turmoil, but I don't think that Egypt is anywhere near total implosion. Oh, and I'm guessing that Israel is thrilled: what's new?... they're still surrounded by enemies, but at least they don't have to worry about this populist revolt spreading!

Now the other Arab nations, according to accounts by their diplomats via Fareed Zakaria (in Davos), are essentially scared "poop"less. If this can happen to Egypt, there isn't a single Arab nation that can count on their stability right now.

In the midst of all of this, added to the continued failure of the Palestinians to re-establish a credible government and the Israeli's willingness to sit behind a wall (it's working pretty well) is no longer as hot a topic. You can't exactly say that the middle east is uneasy because of Jerusalem when you have populist uprisings that are very much home-grown and concerned with domestic issues.

I think, finally, the issue of the Palestinian people has been openly acknowledged to be what it is: they've been pawns, and now they're nothing. I don't mean this as a reflection of my beliefs, but as WhoWee points out... that canal is not a joke.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I think I understand the 'political dynamics' now, Mubarak:

"I have taken the side, and will always be taking the side of the poor people of Egypt"​

That’s why the man gets reelected, year after year – of course! ... so many poor ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DtOr6BBOHg

Title: "Back to the Future" ?


... will this really work ...

 

[Char. Limit]

I think I understand the 'political dynamics' now, Mubarak:

"I have taken the side, and will always be taking the side of the poor people of Egypt"​

That’s why the man gets reelected, year after year – of course! ... so many poor ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DtOr6BBOHg

Title: "Back to the Future" ?


... will this really work ...

Too little too late. My prediction is that Mubarak himself will be forced to step down.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

But what I'm reading is that it will hopefully not be a fanatic muslim takeover.

I think (and I hope) that you are right. The protestors were not the "beardy gang", they were mostly young people fed up with the idea that Mubarak’s son is going to control their lives for another +30 years.

From what I heard the Muslim Brotherhood has only 25% of the potential voters.

And when you think about it – would you risk your life only to install a new "dictatorial madcap"...

"Other countries" in the region seem much more "fundamental".

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Too little too late.

Yup, my feeling too.

 

[apeiron]

No one going to mention stories about western promotion of regime change (always a dicey game, but the credit crunch and coming predictable trouble is going to be destablising many countries, so maybe better to try to influence the direction of change so far as possible...)

The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...acking-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I don't think that Egypt is going to change as much as some of you seem to expect.

Agree, and I think you guys over there has much more to say about this than you might think. The USA 'contributes' with $3 billions per year to Egypt, and $1.5 billions goes directly to the military. I’m just guessing now, but I don’t think the army 'chooses' poverty to install some crazy "Ayatollah"...

 

[WhoWee]

I don't think that Egypt is going to change as much as some of you seem to expect. Mubarak's time is definitely up, but revolution? If thn military refuses to fight the people, that's it... the police (by accounts) have already fled, and their various stations and headquarters ransacked.

It comes down to what the Egyptian people want, how much they want it, and in the end it all comes down to whether or not the military will move from a protective role, and begin to kill their own people...
...remember, that is NOT what they signed up for, but we'll see.

I also don't see that this can be leveraged into an "islamic revolution"... that's just not what's on the street from what's being reported.

I think this represents a period of (violent) turmoil, but I don't think that Egypt is anywhere near total implosion. Oh, and I'm guessing that Israel is thrilled: what's new?... they're still surrounded by enemies, but at least they don't have to worry about this populist revolt spreading!

Now the other Arab nations, according to accounts by their diplomats via Fareed Zakaria (in Davos), are essentially scared "poop"less. If this can happen to Egypt, there isn't a single Arab nation that can count on their stability right now.

In the midst of all of this, added to the continued failure of the Palestinians to re-establish a credible government and the Israeli's willingness to sit behind a wall (it's working pretty well) is no longer as hot a topic. You can't exactly say that the middle east is uneasy because of Jerusalem when you have populist uprisings that are very much home-grown and concerned with domestic issues.

I think, finally, the issue of the Palestinian people has been openly acknowledged to be what it is: they've been pawns, and now they're nothing. I don't mean this as a reflection of my beliefs, but as WhoWee points out... that canal is not a joke.

Another concern is what happens if the military splinters into opposing factions?

Does anyone remember how beautiful Beirut (The Paris of the Middle East) was - before the war?
http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&...esult_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CB8QsAQwAA

 

[Astronuc]

Interesting, and troubling if that's the case! The exploding youth phenomenon is universal across the middle east... I understand their aspirations, but as an outsider this is a terrible time for the region to collapse.

There is never a good time for a revolution. It seems more a case of upheaval than collapse.

Tunisia was a catalyst.

Egyptians’ Fury Has Smoldered Beneath the Surface for Decades (Jan 29, 2011)
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29mubarak.html

. . . .
Now five years later, as Egypt quakes beneath the fury of a huge public uprising and tanks roll through its cities, that compact between Mr. Mubarak and his subjects has broken. His focus on stability, which relied heavily on police powers and support from the West, has proved to be his greatest liability. Protesters now march through the streets chanting slogans like this: “Down, down, down Mubarak!”

The litany of complaints against Mr. Mubarak is well known to anyone who has spent time in any coffee shop or on any corner chatting in any city in Egypt. The police are brutal. Elections are rigged. Corruption is rampant. Life gets harder for the masses as the rich grow richer and the poor grow poorer. Even as Egypt’s economy enjoyed record growth in recent years, the number of people living in poverty actually grew.
. . . .

In Cairo, Egypt, a street-eye view on a day of 'revolution' and high hopes
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Midd...ye-view-on-a-day-of-revolution-and-high-hopes

Officials: 38 dead in Egypt protests since Friday
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110129/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest


Analysis: Why Egypt matters
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12311889

Mohamed ElBaradei has been standing on the sidelines. Some have proposed him as an alternative to Mubarak.

Egypt unrest: ElBaradei returns as protests build (Jan 27, 2011)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12300164

Mohamed ElBaradei calls for 'a new Egypt'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12301638


Egypt braces for further day of protests (Jan 27, 2011)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12294804
"Egypt's Muslims and Christians will go out to fight against corruption, unemployment and oppression and absence of freedom," Reuters quoted one activist as saying.


And apparently Joe Biden doesn't understand what the protesters want!?

 

[nismaratwork]

There is never a good time for a revolution. It seems more a case of upheaval than collapse.

That's like saying there's never a good time for feudalism; ideally you don't have to go through it, but sometimes revolution comes before the more reasonable reforms. I understand your point however, by its very definition, a revolution is a disaster. I could live with the military simply taking an active role in maintaining social order while a new police force is formed, and Mubarak is (relatively) peacefully ousted. I don't think the Egyptian army stands to gain more than it does to lose by slaughtering their own people.

Still, when we're talking about this part of the world... I would keep this in mind when making statements that could be unclear, such as, "there is never a good time for a revolution." There IS a good time for change however, and that's all I meant.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_quietism

Tunisia was a catalyst.

It would seem almost astronomically unlikely if that were not the case. People keep trying to draw comparisons to Iran, but Egypt has more in common with Jordan or Israel than Iran. Tunisia clearly got some people thinking; self-immolation and revolt is always a powerful signal to a neighbor. I think the point made in some articles and commentaries about the recent allowance for a middle class to emerge in Egypt as a driving factor.

Egyptians’ Fury Has Smoldered Beneath the Surface for Decades (Jan 29, 2011)
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29mubarak.html



In Cairo, Egypt, a street-eye view on a day of 'revolution' and high hopes
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Midd...ye-view-on-a-day-of-revolution-and-high-hopes

Officials: 38 dead in Egypt protests since Friday
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110129/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest


Analysis: Why Egypt matters
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12311889

Mohamed ElBaradei has been standing on the sidelines. Some have proposed him as an alternative to Mubarak.

Egypt unrest: ElBaradei returns as protests build (Jan 27, 2011)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12300164

Mohamed ElBaradei calls for 'a new Egypt'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12301638


Egypt braces for further day of protests (Jan 27, 2011)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12294804
"Egypt's Muslims and Christians will go out to fight against corruption, unemployment and oppression and absence of freedom," Reuters quoted one activist as saying.


And apparently Joe Biden doesn't understand what the protesters want!?

Joe Biden, Dan Quayle... VP's ain't what they used to be... and mostly they used to stink.

Anyway, this isn't setting out to be a revolution, but that doesn't mean it couldn't end as one. Iran has a DEEP interests here, and in opposition to virtually everyone else in the region and the world.

 

[WhoWee]

Joe Biden, Dan Quayle... VP's ain't what they used to be... and mostly they used to stink.

Anyway, this isn't setting out to be a revolution, but that doesn't mean it couldn't end as one. Iran has a DEEP interests here, and in opposition to virtually everyone else in the region and the world.

From our western perspective - Biden seems to have mis-spoken? However, what if his comment was intended to point out there are worse examples of dictatorial control?

I agree that Iran has deep interests - but if this "facebook revolution" spreads (back) to Tehran - change could sweep the entire region.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2044142,00.html

IMO - as long as the military demonstrates restraint in dealing with protestors, stays together (doesn't splinter into warring factions), and keeps the Suez Canal open - the change could be peaceful. I don't think the radicals will take power unless there is a total collapse and war. This is largely about the economy - people need to hear positive messages - that they will have a voice, more freedom, and economic opportunities moving forward.

Has anyone found information on Mubarak's financial holdings/control (banks, insurance, shipping)?

 

[AlephZero]

The army and the security forces (police + border guards) are two very different organizations.

The army is actually quite well respected by the population, as being about as free from corruption as its commanders permit it to be. In fact the military staged their own demonstrations some decades ago protesting against their pay and conditions, and won some improvements as a result.

On the other hand, the security services are universally considered the bad guys.

So it is no great surprise that the army is not stopping civiilans attacking the security forces. If the army actively joins in the attack, that is game over for the current regime I think, even considering that the last 3 dictators have all been ex-military people.

The US doesn't like this for one simple reason. Egypt was a nice stable dicatorship that could be relied on to do the US's dirty work behind closed doors, in return for a bit of "aid money". If Egypt turns into a nice stable democracy that is naturally friendly to the US, the US will have to find somewhere else to outsource its waterboarding (and worse).

Tony Blair was singing from the real version of the US hymn sheet in supporting Mubarrak, except he appeared not to have got the message from Washington to keep quiet.

 

[nismaratwork]

It's time to get to know Egypt's new VP. He's not a nice man, but he's proven to be very effective in fighting islamist radicals, and he IS respected. This could be a move to hand over the reigns of power, but by the same token, this guy could give the order to open fire on his own people... wouldn't be the first time.

edit: forgot the links!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_Suleiman

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/29/egypt-vice-president-idUSLDE70S0FL20110129

Jan 29 (Reuters) - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, 82, picked his intelligence chief and confidante Omar Suleiman as vice president, a post Mubarak occupied before taking the top job and which has never been filled in 30 years of his rule.

The step indicates for the first time a possible succession plan and also suggests Mubarak's son, who has long rumoured to be a potential leader, has been pushed out of the picture.

The moves comes after five days of protests that have shattered the image of a country that had long been able to crush dissent and opposition through its vast military and security forces.

It may also indicate Mubarak, 82, will not run again in the planned September presidential elections, when officials had suggested he would stand.

Omar Suleiman, 74, has long taken a close role in key policy areas, including the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, an issue seen as vital to Egypt's relationship with its key ally and aid donor the United States.

State TV showed Suleiman being sworn in as the vice-president.

The official state news agency carried a brief item that said: "Minister Omar Suleiman has been sworn in this evening as vice president for the president of the republic."

It was not clear if protesters would welcome a move that keeps control in the hands of the military and security institutions.

"He is just like Mubarak, there is no change," a protester told Reuters outside the Interior Ministry, where thousands were protesting, moments after the appointment