Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[OmCheeto]

Because Putin is destined to lose no elections or referendum when he supervises it?

Ha! It took me a few minutes to figure out where I'd heard something to this effect. LisaB and I were recently discussing the history of the region, when I ran across the following:

It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.

Anyway, I consider Putin's outcome as mediocre. Referendum in Austria about their annexation in 1938 got 99,73% for "YES".

Kim Jong Un would have probably been very upset with such a close vote.

But in all seriousness, please keep us informed of what is going on. As the Ukraine's next door neighbor, you are hopefully a much better newsfeed than CNN.

Dziękuję i dobranoc. (Thank you, and good night)

 

[Czcibor]

Kim Jong Un would have probably been very upset with such a close vote.

But in all seriousness, please keep us informed of what is going on. As the Ukraine's next door neighbor, you are hopefully a much better newsfeed than CNN.

Dziękuję i dobranoc. (Thank you, and good night)

"Dobranoc"? U mnie jest wczesny ranek ("Good night"? It's early morning here)

Anyway, I've just learned that Putin already had much better results, like 107%. It seems that his popularity declines...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/w...votes-for-putin-abound-in-chechnya.html?_r=1&


Concerning languages: I've read a report of a person who recently visited Kiev (so a place that recently was not specially pro-Russia ;) ). He mentioned that he heard Russian more often than Ukrainian. His conclusion was that this whole conflict was not ethnic based, but more citizens vivid about corruption overthrowing gov.

We operate here using term "nations". In practice I think that there is a continuum among Slavic nations. Both in Poland and Ukraine you have within countries strong difference between the western part and eastern. Plus differences in views based on education, age and size of city. (So if a Western journalist interviews a university student who speak fluent English then would for sure get a strong pro-Western answers :D )

 

[DevilsAvocado]

;)

Ukraine, Russia agree Crimea truce until March 21 (Reuters);

That's at least something 'positive'. Don't want to be a party pooper, but today Kiev announced that beside the already 40,000 mobilized reserves, they will mobilize 40,000 more...

And yesterday we experienced a historical peak of democracy in the civilized world, 'voting' at the end of a barrel of a gun.

[BBC/GETTY IMAGES]

16 МАРТА Мы ВЫБИРАЕМ
или

MARCH 16, we choose
[Nazism] or [Über-Sized-Gas-Nationalism]

So what are they going to do with the 42% non Russians, that according to this "Stonehenge Logic" are Nazis? Send them to a reopened Gulag??

And what are they going to do with the Ukrainian/Crimean offshore gas fields on the continental shelf of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov? Operated by Chornomornaftogaz (an oil and gas company in Simferopol) with total reserves of 58.6 billion cubic metres of natural gas, 1.231 million tons of gas condensate, and 2.53 million tons of crude oil? And rest of Ukrainian property?

The Crime_an deputy prime minister Rustam Temirgaliev has said that the new owner of the company would be (Putin's) Gazprom.

This looks like a mafia deal arranged by Hells Angels...

[Does Merkel really want this kind of gas in her stove?]

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Crimea and Punishment? :D :D:

Yes, Преступлéние и наказáние ;)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Kim Jong Un would have probably been very upset with such a close vote.

Yup, especially since it is Kim Jong-un who votes on what kind of citizens he wants.

 

[Dotini]

I am confused about the whole situation. Some political turmoil occurs in Ukraine...then Russia takes the opportunity to come into the country and set up a poll to allow the people to vote to secede from the Ukraine?

How did politics in Ukraine equate to Russia trying to gain more territory??

The opportunity presented itself.

Yes. There was a revolution in Kiev, with things in a mess. While the revolutionaries were still getting organized, Putin acted. The revolution obviously is ongoing, and actions far from complete.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

So, obviously before the cold war was over, that land was part of the Soviet Union. So the Russians just want to take back what was previously theirs.

That's what Putin wants you to believe, but he 'forget' to tell you that in 1954 USSR gave Crimea to Ukraine, and in 1994 Russia signed an agreement to never ever invade or threaten Ukraine.

And the "previously theirs" logic fails, because how far should we go? Before Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Crown of the Kingdom of Poland, Crimean Khanate, Ottoman Empire, Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth; the legal owners of Crimea was the Roman Empire in the 1st century BC.

Does this give Berlusconi the right to invade Crimea [and "save" a few hundred Italian tourists], in case of his [not likely] comeback?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Here's an interesting map from the Crimea State Medical University:

http://www.csmuedu.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/300px-RussianUseEn.png​

But that's kind of a silly thought.

Not only silly but false.

Percentage of native Ukrainian speakers by subdivision

Percentage of native Russian speakers by subdivision

 

[Borek]

Apart from the fact all these data can be wrong, I don't see a discrepancy between them - you can be a native speaker but "use" a different language for whatever reasons.

I have no idea what "use" means in this context, it can mean everything.

 

[Dotini]

If I were a revolutionary strategist, I would be rushing all possible bodies into Odessa. If access to the Black Sea is lost, the revolution might well be doomed.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I don't see a discrepancy between them

I meant "false" as in "ridiculously biased". I'm surely not an expert on this, but isn't it a fact that most native Ukrainians do speak Russian, also?

Then claims like "dominates absolutely" is just another Putin prank, right? (in order to 'divide and conquer')

And 5% is usually not the same as 97-75%... unless we use Putin's calculator from 1945...

 

[mheslep]

Obama's anticipated executive order seizing assets went out today. Seven Russians (and 4 Ukrainians)? Seems thin in response to Putin's statement today that Crimea is now "a sovereign and independent state." Probably should have taken no action rather than one likely deemed frivolous by the Russians.

Vladislav Surkov, Presidential Aide
Sergey Glazyev, Presidential Aide
Leonid Slutsky, member Fed Council
Andrei Klishas, member Fed Council
Valentina Matviyenko, Fed Council Speaker
Dmitry Rogozin, Deputy PM
Yelena Mizulina, member Fed Council

Dmitry Rogozin, tweets:

"I think some prankster prepared the draft of this Act of the US President"

Comrade @BarackObama, what should do those who have neither accounts nor property abroad? Or U didn't think about it?) http://t.co/16KUTJPXOl

 

[lisab]

Regarding the language maps: those data mean nothing without population density data. (So what if an area is 100% Russian speaking if only three people live there, for example.)

Some of the population density maps I've found disagree with others, and I have no way to verify the truth. But most show the western portion as more densely populated.

 

[OmCheeto]

Regarding the language maps: those data mean nothing without population density data. (So what if an area is 100% Russian speaking if only three people live there, for example.)

Some of the population density maps I've found disagree with others, and I have no way to verify the truth. But most show the western portion as more densely populated.

I have no idea either. Maps are hard.

And secession is serious business.

American went through a secessionist period just two years ago.

I say, let the Irish decide, on whether or not the Crimea can succeed. (hic!)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Putin is talking live about Crime_a now. (Welcoming it to the Russian crimepire)

And yesterday Russian television anchor Dmitry Kiselyov said "http://news.yahoo.com/state-tv-says-russia-could-turn-us-radioactive-212003397.html" ... ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y90lnQKx888


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWya-HGGo2c




* I'm about to throw up any minute now... can some please tell me it's a bad dream... please *

 

[Dotini]

* I'm about to throw up any minute now... can some please tell me it's a bad dream... please *

Dear Devil's Avocado,

You are taking this whole thing way too seriously. Please relax, have some fun, and enjoy the show.

This is simply old-fashioned realpolitik; business as usual. It's a fulfilling game for grownups. They would never let the game come to an end.

If you become depressed, watching A Game of Thrones will help cure that mood.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Vladimir Putin addresses parliament, live on national TV:

"Military force has not entered Crimea... it was just 22,000 'people' that was already there"

It looks like the two-faced Putin has to decide for what is the current "truth". A few days ago he said it was not Russian military, it was "unknown self-defense forces" (dropped down from outer space?), any now it is "just 22,000 'people' that was already there".

This man is a very dangerous racketeer.

It would be interesting to hear Vladimir Putin – who honors legality and constitutionality – the explanation for why he deployed "just 22,000 people" in Crimea, when the agreement between Ukraine and Russia only allow for some six thousand Russian troupes?

This speak is delusional, a mad dream of restoring the glorious days USSR, he even talks about "East Germany" and an "unfair reunion"...

"Russia has shown maturity and strength"... says the bear hunting he-man.

And now declares Crimea a part of the Russian federation.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Dear Devil's Avocado,

You are taking this whole thing way too seriously. Please relax, have some fun, and enjoy the show.

This is simply old-fashioned realpolitik; business as usual. It's a fulfilling game for grownups. They would never let the game come to an end.

If you become depressed, watching A Game of Thrones will help cure that mood.

Thanks Dotini, I wish you were right, but I can promise you that this is not a joke. Do you watch the news? The man keeps rambling about the cold war for god sake, and the audience could have done very well in the 1930th Germany...

What do you know about history? There was some serious "game-playing" back in 1938...

 

[SteamKing]

Does this give Berlusconi the right to invade Crimea [and "save" a few hundred Italian tourists], in case of his [not likely] comeback?

Since Berlusconi is no longer PM of Italy and is presently disqualified from holding office in the Italian government due to his recent conviction on tax evasion charges, I suppose he could personally invade the Crimea and save any 'bunga bunga' girls who might be trapped there.

 

[qspeechc]

What are you on about DevilsAvocado? What proof do you have there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine? Do you think it is utterly beyond the bounds of possibility that, *gasp*, some ethnic Russians in Ukraine have organised themselves into armed groups to protect themselves?

And what about NATO's attempts to push it's influence around the world? What eveidence do you have to support your claim that Putin has "a mad dream of restoring the glorious days USSR"? What countries has Russia illegally waged war against recently?

Just read this, and come back with a reply:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-03-03/backstory-russia-ukraine-confrontation-us-and-nato-encirclement-russia

And did you miss Crimea's referendum? They voted to join Russia, in case you missed it:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/ukraine-russia-truce-crimea-referendum

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Since Berlusconi is no longer PM of Italy and is presently disqualified from holding office in the Italian government due to his recent conviction on tax evasion charges, I suppose he could personally invade the Crimea and save any 'bunga bunga' girls who might be trapped there.

Thanks for the joke and a little bit of 'lighten up' in this mess. :thumbs:

 

[SteamKing]

It has been my experience that language plays a big role in how people identify themselves. The letters that my mother translated were all written in German, though they originated from the Ukraine.

Catherine the Great invited Germans to settle southern Russia in the 18th century, where they pioneered on the steppes between Saratov and Tsaritsyn (later Stalingrad, then Volgograd). These 'Volga Germans' were allowed to keep their German language and religion and lived unmolested until the outbreak of WWII. Stalin forced the evacuation of the Volga Germans eastward to Siberia and Kazakhstan, and few ever returned to their former homes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Germans

 

[DevilsAvocado]

What are you on about DevilsAvocado? What proof do you have there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine?

No comment, I let the PF Mentors deal with this kind of wild personal speculations.

 

[qspeechc]

No comment, I let the PF Mentors deal with this kind of wild personal speculations.

Did I speculate or ask for evidence? You do know Russia has had a naval base in Crimea for a very long time, right?

https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2010/03/22/the-future-of-the-sevastopol-russian-navy-base/
http://mario692.newsvine.com/_news/2014/02/27/22891817-background-on-sevastopol-and-the-two-navies

 

[DennisN]

I don't know about any new "former USSR" but I do know about the plans for the so-called Eurasian Union.

About the referendum, well...

According to Article 3 of the Law of Ukraine, territorial changes can only be approved via a referendum where all the citizens of Ukraine are allowed to vote, including those that do not reside in Crimea. (my bolding)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_referendum,_2014#Legal_aspects

Furthermore, it does seem the majority of nations in the international community does not consider the Crimea referendum as valid, see Crimean_referendum,_2014 - Reactions (domestic & international).

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Did I speculate or ask for evidence?

Not only are you speculating, but contradicting yourself:

What proof do you have there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine?

You do know Russia has had a naval base in Crimea for a very long time, right?

 

[DennisN]

An article about the so-called Eurasian union.

Putin, Medvedev praise values of Soviet Union (Reuters, Nov 17, 2011), quote:

Russia's leaders said on Thursday the new Eurasian Union that Moscow wants to create would build on the best values of the Soviet Union.

[...]

Speaking to Russian pensioners and World War Two veterans in the Kremlin ahead of a parliamentary election in just over two weeks, President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin played up their nostalgia about Soviet times.

"You remember the kind of words that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was a very hard, sad time," Medvedev said. "We are working now to unite on a new basis, and I am certain that this union will have a very good future."

Medvedev and Putin will host the presidents of ex-Soviet Belarus and Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Alexander Lukashenko, in Moscow on Friday to discuss ways of further integration into the Eurasian Union.

"We would like for each state that wants to join the Customs Union, the Common Economic Space, and in future the Eurasian Union, to make that choice consciously, so that nobody then says they were roped in," Medvedev said.

Critics have said the Russian integration drive aims to restore the Soviet empire -- a personal ambition of Putin, a former KGB agent who called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".

[...]

Russia is facing a rising wave of nationalism, mostly among ethnic Russians angry about an influx of migrants from the poor North Caucasus region, as well as from the former Soviet countries where living standards are lower.

The two leaders face difficulties in addressing the potentially explosive issue in their election campaigns. Medvedev said the Soviet experience could help.

"We should not be shy when bringing back the ideas of ethnic unity. Yes, we are all different but we have common values and a desire to live in a single big state," Medvedev said.

Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/17/idINIndia-60590820111117

 

[qspeechc]

Yes, but the government that came into power by a coup, overthrowing a democratically elected government, is entirely acceptable?

I agree the referendum was a balls up, because there wasn't an option to remain part of the Ukraine, but do you or do you not believe in self-determination, regardless of the Ukraine constitution? I'm not asking for a legal answer, but do you believe self-determination is morally, ethically, whatever you want to call it, right? Does every citizen of the UK have a vote in Scotland's referendum to be independent?

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37961.htm
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/14-03-2014/127109-crimea_context-0/
http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/crimea-referendum-results-put-self-determination-to-the-test/

 

[qspeechc]

Not only are you speculating, but contradicting yourself:

I'm sorry, are you being intentionally dense? Why did you ignore the links I gave, showing that the Russians have had a naval base in Sevastopol for a long time?

According to the 1997 treaty, a Russian naval base and a number of naval facilities would continue to be located in Sevastopol and in the Crimea on the terms of a 20-year renewable lease, following a long diplomatic and political dispute between Russia and newly independent Ukraine.
[...]
On April 27, 2010, Russia and Ukraine ratified the Russian Ukrainian Naval Base for Gas treaty, extending the Russian Navy's lease of Crimean facilities for 25 years after 2017 (through 2042) with an option to prolong the lease in 5-year extensions. The ratification process in the Ukrainian parliament encountered stiff opposition and erupted into a brawl in the parliament chamber. Eventually, the treaty was ratified by a 52% majority vote—236 of 450. The Russian Duma ratified the treaty by a 98% majority without incident.

From wikipedia

EDIT: the words are "...would continue to be located in Sevastopol...", meaning the base was there even before 1997, but it doesn't say exactly how long it has been there.

 

[DennisN]

An article about comparison with Scotland:
U.K. to Russia: Crimea Isn't Scotland (The Atlantic)
Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/03/uk-to-russia-crimea-isnt-scotland/284455/

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I don't know about any new "former USSR" but I do know about the plans for the so-called Eurasian Union.

True, and if it continues along this road – with nuclear threats delivered on the telly – I guess the slick businessman Vladimir Putin has to turn solely to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for the commerce, and rely on sparkling guys like Alexander Lukashenko to deliver the hot stuff like "iPhones", "BMW's" and "Ferrari's" ...

 

[qspeechc]

There are quite a few reports that there were no independent observers at the referendum, which contradicts this:

Some 50 foreigners from 21 countries will be present during Sunday' s referendum as international observers, the chief of the autonomous republic of Crimea's commission on preparing and holding the all-Crimean referendum said Friday.

At Friday' s briefing, Mikhail Malyshev said these observers who came from, among others, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Spain and the US, had been registered by his commission.

As for the article in The Atlantic, 'Crimea Isn't Scotland':

1) Why should all of the Ukraine have a say in the self-determination of Crimea? I have made the point, not every citizen of he UK has a say in the referendum for Scotland's independence, only Scottish citizens do. The fact that the referendum is condemned by the Prime Minister and President is irrelevant, not least because they are illegitimate, having overthrown a ddemocratically elected president. And I have already asked if you agree with the principle of self-determination, regardless of the constitution.

2) I simply don't buy the assertion that voters in Crimea are being forced at gun-point to vote to join Russia. For one, that doesn't square with the acknowledged fact that some people abstained from voting precisely because there was no option to remain part of the Ukraine; why were they not forced at gun-point?

3) I don't see why they point out the Crimean referendum has been quickly organised. They admit there is 'national unrest'--a euphemism--which is obviously the explanation for the quickly organised referendum.
The fact that the government opposes it is irrelevant. The Spanish government opposes the right of the Catalans to have a referndum on self-determination, that doesn't mean the Spanish government is correct and the Catalans are wrong.

4) I have no idea if some media have been shut down. Please can someone provide links.

5) Please explain how a referendum for the Crimeans would be illegitimate.

 

[qspeechc]

Yes, DevilsAvocado, and you have blissfully ignored the http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-03-03/backstory-russia-ukraine-confrontation-us-and-nato-encirclement-russia I asked you to read about the USA and NATO extending their power. Oh yes, it's perfectly acceptable for them to do it.

Indeed, the fact that the U.S. has allegedly paid billions of dollars to anti-Russian forces in Ukraine - and even purportedly picked the Ukrainian president - has to be seen in context.
[...]
From the moment the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the United States has relentlessly pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran. It has brought 12 countries in central Europe, all of them formerly allied with Moscow, into the NATO alliance. US military power is now directly on Russia’s borders.
[...]
We are witnessing as we talk the making possibly of the worst history of our lifetime. We are watching the descending of a new cold war divide between west and east, only this time, it is not in far away Berlin, it's right on Russia's borders through the historical civilization in Ukraine. It's a crisis of historic magnitude. If you ask how we got in it, how we got into the crisis, and how therefore do we get out, it is time to stop asking why Putin - why Putin is doing this or that, but ask about the American policy, and the European Union policy that led to this moment.
[...]
One last point, that so-called economic partnership that Yanukovych, the elected president of Ukraine did not sign, and that set off the streets - the protests in the streets in November, which led to this violence in and confrontation today, that so-called economic agreement included military clauses which said that Ukraine by signing this so called civilization agreement had to abide by NATO military policy. This is what this is about from the Russian point of view, the ongoing western march towards post Soviet Russia.

Etc., you really should try to listen to the person you are argueing with, rather than blissfully ignoring them.

On the other hand, you offer no evidence whatsoever that Russia "dream of restoring the glorious days USSR [sic]".

I leave it to the Moderators to deal with that kind of wild personal speculation.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Regarding the language maps: those data mean nothing without population density data.

Agreed, here is latest http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/Mult/Map/2012/m0102_en.htm from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

And here's http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/MULT/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=19A050501_02&ti=19A050501_02.%20Distribution%20of%20the%20population%20of%20Ukraine%60s%20regions%20by%20native%20language%20%280,1%29&path=../Database/Census/05/01/&lang=2&multilang=en (2001) from the same source (select all for 'Indicated as a native language' and 'Contents' and click on the 'Continue' button).

My guess is it will be impossible for Putin to reinstall any pro-Russian government in Ukraine again (without military force), because it was very close in last election, and now approx 1 million pro-Russian voters are no longer Ukrainians... maybe something he should have considered in the first place?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Thanks DennisN, this was interesting:

[my bolding]

Critics have said the Russian integration drive aims to restore the Soviet empire -- a personal ambition of Putin, a former KGB agent who called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".