Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[Czcibor]

Arm the Ukrainians, employ full U.S. import export sanctions, greater EU sanctions.

No problem with Poland/Balts/Sweden implementing their share of this idea, but USA seems a bit reluctant and western part of the EU seems to work hard to avoid see the problem (in their case up to level that I find embarrassing).

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Don't mess with Russia.

That was President Vladimir Putin's message on Friday, the same day a British government source claimed that Russian troops had significantly ratcheted up their military incursion into Ukraine.
Moscow doesn't want or intend to wade into any "large-scale conflicts," Putin insisted at a youth forum, state-run Itar-Tass reported. A few breaths later, he made the point that Russia is "strengthening our nuclear deterrence forces and our armed forces," making them more efficient and modernized.

"I want to remind you that Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations," the President said. "This is a reality, not just words."
He later warned, "We must always be ready to repel any aggression against Russia and (potential enemies) should be aware ... it is better not to come against Russia as regards a possible armed conflict."

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/29/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

 

[mheslep]

"One of the most powerful nuclear nations. "

Classic cold war talk. Time to start underground nuclear weapons testing again to help clarify what powerful means. Discussion of which Russian regions should be encouraged to withdraw from Russia, with western support, would be appropriate.

 

[lisab]

No problem with Poland/Balts/Sweden implementing their share of this idea, but USA seems a bit reluctant and western part of the EU seems to work hard to avoid see the problem (in their case up to level that I find embarrassing).

The appointment of Donald Tusk as President of the European Council will give a new direction to Europe's policies, IMO.

His appointment as president of the European Council, a long way from the shipyards of his native Gdansk on the Baltic Sea, heralds the rise of Poland to the top table of European policymaking, though critics have questioned his suitability to manage the multilingual art of the classic Brussels compromise.

Tusk becomes a symbol of the country's transformation, and of the shifting balance of power in Europe. He himself spoke of the bloc harnessing the energy of "this ambitious and energetic region", with its experience of dealing with Moscow.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/30/us-eu-summit-tusk-idUSKBN0GU0WD20140830

 

[russ_watters]

But if the US can invade nations to protect its interest(s), why not other nations doing much the same?

The line would seem to be drawn at annexation vs liberation.

 

[mheslep]

I'm in strong agreement with the views below of long term journalist on astern Europe, Edward Lucas

...It is no excuse to say that Europe is divided and weak. That is deplorable but not new. Washington could have used its clout as a superpower to deter Moscow with serious sanctions, to support Kiev with serious military and other aid, and to bolster the front-line states—Poland and its Baltic neighbors—by moving serious numbers of troops and equipment there, backed by a full-scale standing defense plan. It didn’t. Vladimir Putin and his friends have drawn a dangerous conclusion from that.

link

 

[gravenewworld]

The US needs to step back and let the world burn. We get criticized for meddling in foreign affairs. Fine. We should step back and let the dominoes fall. Declaring war on the US and EU isn't easy with an interconnected global economy. The US and EU are by far and away the leading exporters of food for the entire world. One of the main ways people die during war or conflict isn't from bombs, but famine. Disrupting the world's food supply by attacking the EU or US is a sure fire way to destabilize the entire planet once food riots start over price increases from the shock of no longer having two of the world's top exporters stably providing food. We've known this for decades now, and increasing our 'food power' has been a strategy since the Cold War. Who needs nukes when you control the world's food security? Russia and China have problems feeding their own people without imports.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

The US needs to step back and let the world burn. We get criticized for meddling in foreign affairs. Fine. We should step back and let the dominoes fall

I understand your frustration, but this is a really callous attitude. You don't watch millions suffer horrible fates because you feel unappreciated.

Your food power comments are interesting though.

 

[mheslep]

As others have noted, on August 6th Russia banned food imports from the US, Europe, and others, not the other way around.

The ban is hurting them economically per news reports, but the largest country in the world by land area (and growing) will not suffer another Stalingrad for lack of US and European food, especially when Brazil, Argentina, etc are happy to fill in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine#Sanctions_by_Russia

 

[Astronuc]

It gets messier.

Moscow (AFP) - Russia vowed on Tuesday to adopt a beefed-up military doctrine over NATO's plans to establish a rapid-response team that could ward off the Kremlin's expansion into Ukraine and feared push further west.
. . . .
But top separatist commanders have admitted that some off-duty and vacationing Russian soldiers had already joined their ranks.

The ominous sense of Moscow and the West digging in for a Cold War-style standoff with unimaginable consequences for global security prompted UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to caution all sides that "there is no military solution" to the crisis.

http://news.yahoo.com/kiev-warns-great-war-russia-forces-retreat-170207035.htmlUkraine defence minister warns of 'great war' with Russia
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-soldiers-battle-russian-tanks-lugansk-kiev-065432459.html

 

[Borek]

It is a regular war, one that Ukrainians are probably loosing at the moment.

 

[gravenewworld]

I understand your frustration, but this is a really callous attitude. You don't watch millions suffer horrible fates because you feel unappreciated.

Your food power comments are interesting though.

Why not, the world stood by and watched almost 1 million people get slaughtered in Rwanda in only a few weeks yet nobody did anything. Why all of the sudden is the Ukraine special?


How would we Americans feel if Russia installed puppet governments all over the Carribbean and Latin America, installed missile bases everywhere to our south, and formed a military alliance with all Latin American countries in order to make an alliance that was solely made to attack us on a moment's notice? We'd probably be freaking out too. Anyone with a common shred of knowledge of history should have known that encouraging the Ukraine to enter NATO would not be tolerated by Moscow. You can not change 1000s of years of Russian history and heritage in that region. What's the point of poking a hornet's nest then? Just let the Ukraine split up into a pro-Russian East and pro-Western West and get this non-sense over with so we can avoid a World War that started over a country that probably 0.00001% of Americans even care about.

The world has far, far greater problems to deal with like terrorism and global warming to combat than igniting a powder keg yet again in Europe. Things like terrorism and global warming have no boundaries and are going to require massive international cooperation in order to tackle them. The more you antagonize countries with different views of the world, the more it makes it difficult to get their cooperation on issues that affect us all.

 

[nikkkom]

As others have noted, on August 6th Russia banned food imports from the US, Europe, and others, not the other way around.

The ban is hurting them economically per news reports, but the largest country in the world by land area (and growing) will not suffer another Stalingrad for lack of US and European food, especially when Brazil, Argentina, etc are happy to fill in.

Empty fields by themselves do not do anything, however huge they may be. It's people who make things.

Russia is below 150 million people, with nearly zero growth.
To understand the scale of that number, consider that, say, Nigeria has 170 million people, Pakistan has nearly 200, both growing.

Economy of Russia is not that big - about an order of magnitude smaller than the West. And to make things worse, it's almost entirely built on oil/gas exports. If, hypothetically, all Russian trade with the West would stop, the West will have slight decrease of economic growth, whereas Russian economy will just crash and burn.

Good state of economy and politics make people want to do great things. Bad state of economy and politics makes them want to leave. Quite a number of educated people in Russia are not at all eager to live in USSR v2. They are leaving. For example, Israelis report a sharp increase of immigration from Russia.

 

[voko]

Why not, the world stood by and watched almost 1 million people get slaughtered in Rwanda in only a few weeks yet nobody did anything. Why all of the sudden is the Ukraine special?

Russia vs Rwanda, on any western politician's agenda? Pretty evident, I would say. Been that way for centuries, too.

 

[voko]

If, hypothetically, all Russian trade with the West would stop, the West will have slight decrease of economic growth, whereas Russian economy with just crash and burn..

Could you attach some numbers to this? Say, the volume of Russian trade with the West and Russia's GDP?

 

[nikkkom]

The US needs to step back and let the world burn. We get criticized for meddling in foreign affairs.

No one likes cops. But when there are criminals causing trouble in the neighborhood, everyone wants cops to do their job.

Fine. We should step back and let the dominoes fall.

This was already tried. After WWI, US did not interfere in postwar European politics. You know the results.
Exactly because of that results, after WWII US *did* interfere in European politics, up to stationing a sizable military force in Germany. The point was, at least initially, not so much to contain Soviets, but to make damn sure *Germans* don't have any funny ideas anymore.

Should US have more clever foreign policy and not be too trigger-happy? Absolutely.

Should US just leave the world alone? Absolutely not!

 

[nikkkom]

Could you attach some numbers to this? Say, the volume of Russian trade with the West and Russia's GDP?

GDP:
Russia: $2.630 trillion
US: $17.528 trillion
EU: $16.773 trillion
Japan: $4.835 trillion

Trade with EU is 52% of all foreign Russian trade, 11% more is with non-EU European countries. Trade with US is very small (2%).

 

[voko]

Trade with EU is 52% of all foreign Russian trade, 11% more is with non-EU European countries. Trade with US is very small (2%).

52% of what exactly? How much is that in terms of the Russian GDP?

We know that Russia survived the 90's, when her GDP became a fraction of her former self. We also know that other countries are lining up to become Russia's preferred trade partners. Are there really substantial reasons to believe, given all this knowledge, that cessation of trade with the West will be lethal to Russia?

 

[mheslep]

Empty fields by themselves do not do anything, however huge they may be. It's people who make things.

Russia is below 150 million people, with nearly zero growth.
To understand the scale of that number, consider that, say, Nigeria has 170 million people, Pakistan has nearly 200, both growing.

Economy of Russia is not that big - about an order of magnitude smaller than the West. And to make things worse, it's almost entirely built on oil/gas exports. If, hypothetically, all Russian trade with the West would stop, the West will have slight decrease of economic growth, whereas Russian economy will just crash and burn.

Good state of economy and politics make people want to do great things. Bad state of economy and politics makes them want to leave. Quite a number of educated people in Russia are not at all eager to live in USSR v2. They are leaving. For example, Israelis report a sharp increase of immigration from Russia.

I only addressed only food production in response to the idea that the U.S. and allies had a great food power sword dangling over Russia.

Cutting off Russian gas to Europe this winter will not have a "slight" impact, but would hurt both sides severely.

 

[mheslep]

...

Good state of economy and politics make people want to do great things. Bad state of economy and politics makes them want to leave. Quite a number of educated people in Russia are not at all eager to live in USSR v2. They are leaving. For example, Israelis report a sharp increase of immigration from Russia.

That may well be the case, but it has no effect on Russian armor rolling into Ukraine. Russia can sustain its current small invasion force indefinitely, given Ukraine's current limited abilities.

 

[Czcibor]

Why not, the world stood by and watched almost 1 million people get slaughtered in Rwanda in only a few weeks yet nobody did anything. Why all of the sudden is the Ukraine special?


How would we Americans feel if Russia installed puppet governments all over the Carribbean and Latin America, installed missile bases everywhere to our south, and formed a military alliance with all Latin American countries in order to make an alliance that was solely made to attack us on a moment's notice? We'd probably be freaking out too. Anyone with a common shred of knowledge of history should have known that encouraging the Ukraine to enter NATO would not be tolerated by Moscow. You can not change 1000s of years of Russian history and heritage in that region. What's the point of poking a hornet's nest then? Just let the Ukraine split up into a pro-Russian East and pro-Western West and get this non-sense over with so we can avoid a World War that started over a country that probably 0.00001% of Americans even care about.

Wrong analogy - Ukrainians just overthrew Russian puppet. There is no internal split (no more than blue and red states in the USA, Civic Platform vs. Law and Justice in Poland), but just armed invasion of Russian army on Ukraine.

For me it somewhat special because both aggressor and invaded country border mine. If you don't get the point - countries like Poland are openly supporting US Middle East policy not because they see their interest there, but because as kind of implicit deal - in exchange we expect help in containing Russian aggression.

 

[Czcibor]

The appointment of Donald Tusk as President of the European Council will give a new direction to Europe's policies, IMO.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/30/us-eu-summit-tusk-idUSKBN0GU0WD20140830

As local person:
-if I could choose, I'd rather send Radek Sikorski on some foreign minister like role - speaks better English and has more contacts (especially in the USA /UK)
-Unfortunately whole our coalition in Poland is based on Tusk so without him it may collapse. (yes, it's a funny paradox, he is not specially popular inside now, yet, there is no desired alternative)

 

[nikkkom]

52% of what exactly? How much is that in terms of the Russian GDP?

52% of all Russian foreign trade, which is about $900bn per year.
Russian GDP is $2630bn.
Thus, foreign trade is ~33% of it. Trade with EU is, thus, ~17% of Russian GDP.

We know that Russia survived the 90's, when her GDP became a fraction of her former self. We also know that other countries are lining up to become Russia's preferred trade partners. Are there really substantial reasons to believe, given all this knowledge, that cessation of trade with the West will be lethal to Russia?

I don't say it will be lethal, I'm saying it will be very bad.
North Korea is not dead. It is just very, very poor.

 

[nikkkom]

That may well be the case, but it has no effect on Russian armor rolling into Ukraine. Russia can sustain its current small invasion force indefinitely.

I agree. My point is, doing that is very harmful for Russia, politically and economically, in medium and long term.

As US recently rediscovered with Iraq and Afgh, starting a war is far easier than ending it.

 

[voko]

I don't say it will be lethal, I'm saying it will be very bad.

"Russian economy with just crash and burn" sounds pretty much like the death of said economy, which is what "lethal" means.

North Korea is not dead. It is just very, very poor.

Probably saying the obvious, but Russia is not North Korea. More to the point, even the very poor undead North Korea is regarded as a formidable adversary by South Korea and Japan.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

But if the US can invade nations to protect its interest(s), why not other nations doing much the same?

Why not indeed? You could say the Americans, together with their British and Canadian allies, invaded Western Europe in WW2, and that the USSR liberated Eastern Europe. You could also say that the events of 1989-1991, resulting in the collapse of the USSR, were the greatest disaster of the 20th (if not any) century. Then you could say that Vladimir Putin has begun the work of rectifying the situation, perhaps ultimately to liberate Eastern Europe (again), if not all of Europe.

 

[nikkkom]

"Russian economy with just crash and burn" sounds pretty much like the death of said economy, which is what "lethal" means.

I'm not going to argue over what this or that rhetorical phrase exactly means.

If, hypothetically, all Russian trade with the West would stop, Russian GDP would shrink by 20-25%. Call it whatever you like.

 

[voko]

If, hypothetically, all Russian trade with the West would stop, Russian GDP would shrink by 20-25%.

No, that is not correct. A correct statement would have another condition: "Russian trade with third parties would not increase". This condition is manifestly and not hypothetically false, Russia's increasing trade with third parties is well documented, for example:

http://english.cntv.cn/2014/08/20/VIDE1408533605516635.shtml

To say nothing of the recent Sino-Russian gas deal, and the waves of joy spreading through Latin America.

Which is why I think your "crash and burn" conjecture is utterly surreal. You would have to tone it down quite a bit.

 

[Dotini]

As hinted in post #613 (Aug 1), some kind of deal appears to be emerging that ends the conflict.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29042561#

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko says he has agreed with Russian President Putin by phone on a "ceasefire process" for the east.

 

[nikkkom]

> If, hypothetically, all Russian trade with the West would stop, Russian GDP would shrink by 20-25%.

No, that is not correct. A correct statement would have another condition: "Russian trade with third parties would not increase".

Of course I meant "all other things being equal".

(If there are other unspecified events, no one can give any predictive statements - maybe it's "all Russian trade with the West stops + an asteroid gouges out Moscow"? or "all Russian trade with the West stops + suddenly all Russians become geniuses with IQ of 150"?).

Facts show that today Russia is very dependent on trade with the West

 

[mheslep]

No, that is not correct. A correct statement would have another condition: "Russian trade with third parties would not increase". This condition is manifestly and not hypothetically false, Russia's increasing trade with third parties is well documented, for example:

http://english.cntv.cn/2014/08/20/VIDE1408533605516635.shtml

To say nothing of the recent Sino-Russian gas deal, and the waves of joy spreading through Latin America.

Which is why I think your "crash and burn" conjecture is utterly surreal. You would have to tone it down quite a bit.

If the European pipelines are cut off, there is no where else for the Russian gas to go, not for years.

 

[voko]

Facts show that today Russia is very dependent on trade with the West

I disagree with your conclusions, not the facts.

 

[Astronuc]

Russia is apparently providing a limited gas supply to China.

http://acdemocracy.org/russia-the-geopolitics-of-natural-gas-2/#prettyPhoto

http://www.talkradionews.com/world-news/2014/05/20/russia-china-negotiate-terms-major-natural-gas-deal.html#.VAc9pXkg-po

More pipelines are planned.

http://rt.com/business/184176-russia-china-gas-siberian-power/

Back in May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...n-gas-deal-as-ukraine-speeds-china-pivot.html

. . . .
Japan now consumes a third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, and purchased 10 percent of its supplies from Russia's east, which lies on Japan's doorstep.

Oil imports from Russia rose almost 45 percent in 2013 and accounted for about 7 percent of supplies to the world's fourth-biggest crude importer.
. . . .

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/uk-ukraine-crisis-japan-idUKBREA230TK20140304

 

[Czcibor]

Russia is apparently providing a limited gas supply to China.

I expressed it unclear - the gas that they provide to Europe goes with one pipe system, the gas to China with other. In consequence there is impossible to redirect that gas immediately, one would have to connect them first.

 

[mheslep]

Russia is apparently providing a limited gas supply to China.

http://acdemocracy.org/russia-the-geopolitics-of-natural-gas-2/#prettyPhoto

http://www.talkradionews.com/world-news/2014/05/20/russia-china-negotiate-terms-major-natural-gas-deal.html#.VAc9pXkg-po

More pipelines are planned.

http://rt.com/business/184176-russia-china-gas-siberian-power/

Back in May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...n-gas-deal-as-ukraine-speeds-china-pivot.html


http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/uk-ukraine-crisis-japan-idUKBREA230TK20140304

Present tense, Russian gas exports to China are insignificant for Russia. Again, if the Russian gas exports to the EU are cut off both parties will be severely hurt. Gas is not crude. NG can't cheaply flow out through nearest marine terminal and a tanker bound for the highest bidder.

With regard to Russian-Chinese future arrangements, the recently announced multi billion dollar gas deal is appearing more and more like a show for Putin's benefit. Too many details missing, the usual follow ups not falling in place. Certainly the Chinese could use the gas, but I suspect neither do they want to fall into the same major supplier trap (who wrestles bears) as have the Ukranians, Europe.