Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[DevilsAvocado]

Toys or no toys , let's be honest here , all Russia needs and wants from Ukraine is either a pro Russian or neutral government.As long as Ukraine is neutral , I think Kremlin is fine.

Yes, but some of the trouble here is that there seems to be different interpretations of "neutral". If we rewind the tape; all the people of Ukraine wanted, was better relations with EU, and an end of the terrible corruption in Ukraine, but Putin obviously didn't like this version of "neutrality". In Putin's world "neutrality" equals – You can do anything you want, as long as you do what I tell you!

Of course EU should have acted much smarter; they should for example not have let Sweden's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Carl Bildt run around Eurosquare like a new "Charles XII", shouting about "Quislings" and stuff.

And EU should of course have include Putin in the negotiations with Ukraine, where they should have given him full guaranties for that Ukraine would never be a member of EU, without Russia's approval, and that Ukraine would never ever be a member of NATO, in any case.

This could maybe have opened up new and real opportunities for everybody involved... perhaps.

I just can't understand some of the arguments put foward here , do you really think Putin is simple stupid or dreaming of Stalin? he amy have his preferances but he is not dumb , he wouldn't put his amry into Ukraine just for a few oil and gas deals , there is great western influence in Ukraine and some of the poeple in power are also not the nicest folks around , but somehow that skips the western media.

I can't tell you exactly what I think* about Putin (because it would violate the forum rules ), I can only provide these quotes, from high-rank officials:

• Madeleine Albright – "Russian president is delusional"
• Angela Merkel – "[he] ...lives in a world of his own"

*But talking about "western suspicious rat experiments" in a press conference, and denying that he has anything to do with the invading troupes in Crimea... doesn't look 100% 'healthy' to me...

Does this mean this man is sick/nuts? Well, from our perspective it looks like this conclusion could maybe be drawn, but from the Russian perspective many (most?) would say that this is terrible mudslinging, as they see Putin as the best and brightest that has happened to Russia in decades:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIX-hOzyWkY
http://www.youtube.com/embed/kIX-hOzyWkY

To me this is much closer to Stalin than Gorbachev, don't you think?

We have to remember that this guy throws political opponents and folks he doesn't like in jail, in parody trials, and critical journalists lose their lives in 'accidents', and Putin looks at EU as a bunch decadent loser, and the 'nickname' is Gayrope.

In a Russian perspective, what Putin has done in Crimea is certainly not crazy or dumb, but brave and patriotic. There's only one problem; this "brave patriotism" did work in 1968, but it doesn't work today, and this is what the old KGB agent Vladimir Putin obviously has gotten wrong.

So Putin has already lost, because the resolution to this will not be a "New Prague" and a 'nice & cozy' little "Cold War" (that could boost Putin's popularity even more), but two alternatives of: Russian Financial Meltdown vs. WW3 (bye bye Putin in both cases).

He obviously doesn't realize what he has done... and that could maybe be characterized as "living in a world of his own"...

And who can blame him, with all this silly walks...?

About the not-so-nice-folk-SS in Ukraine: They are a minority and a consequence of previous regime, and as soon as Ukraine becomes a working democracy, the fertile soil for this kind of elements will disappear, hopefully completely.

I'm not saying I agree with military intervention from either side but I'm also putting quite clearly that if everyone or someone thinks Ukraine has now gotten much much better leaders than the previous ones , well all I can say is " think twice" .
Also I can bet my whole money that Putin knows damn well what his doing and the possible sanctions and outcomes or his gains versus his drawbacks from this scenario have also been long before calculated.

Yeah, but the problem is that Putin is using a Russian calculator from 1945, which is sadly missing the "Financial Refactoring" button.

Ukraine can't possible get worse leaders than the bunch of criminals that has ripped off the whole country for personal gains. Poland's economy is twice of what it was in 1991, Ukraine's is half of what it was in 1991...

I think poeple are taking this too easy and simplistic.They just think a little " Napoleon" wants to conquer some new territory , while getting new or maybe I should say old terrotorries back is a gain , it;'s definitely not the main one.
This whole thing sadly but true is not about what the people of Ukriane want it's about the US versus Russia influence war.Somewhere in the middle of all that are the real dreams and hopes of the middle class Ukrainian.

Agreed, the everyday people are the ones suffering, and the truth is that "Napoleon" and his precursors has been using Ukraine as "nuclear buffer zone" against West/NATO, where it was planned that they should take the major blow in case of "total mayhem".

Let's do it right this time, and concentrate on other/nicer/better things than these lethal "toys"...


P.S: Getting old territories back again? Well, with this "logic" Berlusconi, in his heydays, could have invaded a major part of Europe to get "old territories back again"...

 

[Czcibor]

About the not-so-nice-folk-SS in Ukraine: They are a minority and a consequence of previous regime, and as soon as Ukraine becomes a working democracy, the fertile soil for this kind of elements will disappear, hopefully completely.

I think that this "SS" is a partially bit misunderstanding. Yes, they revere Stefan Bandera, who was a WW2 war criminal. But they respect him not for war crimes, but for fight for Ukrainian independence (against, pending on changing situation, Germans, Russians and Polish). In the same way Russians don't worship Stalin for his war crimes but for defeating Hitler. Or Western leaders from WW2 are neither revere for their carpet air raids nor for involvement in mass murdering of Cossacks.

Ukraine can't possible get worse leaders than the bunch of criminals that has ripped off the whole country for personal gains. Poland's economy is twice of what it was in 1991, Ukraine's is half of what it was in 1991...

https://www.google.com/publicdata/e...:POL&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false

I would say that not half, but rather 20% less than in 1991. But conclusion is the same.

 

[mheslep]

In the same way Russians don't worship Stalin for his war crimes but for defeating Hitler.

I get the point, but I'm still curious: what's the significant difference? Better to have our own mass murdering megalomaniac rather than the other guy?

 

[Czcibor]

I get the point, but I'm still curious: what's the significant difference? Better to have our own mass murdering megalomaniac rather than the other guy?

Significant difference? Not much except of scope. I rather point out here that there is a psychologically convenient tendency to treat WW2 as good vs. evil, and be outraged that some countries instead of allying with "good" Stalin, consider as their national hero someone who was instead allied with Hitler.

 

[Crazymechanic]

speaking about tendencies , I must say many folks here have a overly simplified understanding of what Russia or Putin or the KGb actually is or was , I guess the western propoganda has done a great harm in trying to make communist hating patriots out of you guys , because now you have left your critical thinking somewhere behind.

All the respect Devils Avocado but I think your opinion on Putin is quite honestly naive at best.
Think baout it for a while , all these pro guys that were with him back in the KGB times and more of them backing him now , do you think their all fools , do you think he literally runs the country on his own , don;'t you think there are like a ton of poeple walking the Kremlin corridors making up plans and advising him on any matter ,
Now don't tell me you fell for his argument that there are no troops from Russia and then you thought that instead of lying to your face while smiling he was just nuts?
But mayeb he wants you to think that he is nuts , just like a criminal wants you to think that the other guy did it ?

Quite hoenstly I am really amazed at the kindergarden level discussion that is going on here , I mean I'm not a physics genius and have been pointed wrong here many times and I accept that from people who are smarter and more experienced than me in this field but I thought they would be smarter at politics looks like I was wrong.

 

[mheslep]

Significant difference? Not much except of scope. I rather point out here that there is a psychologically convenient tendency to treat WW2 as good vs. evil, and be outraged that some countries instead of allying with "good" Stalin, consider as their national hero someone who was instead allied with Hitler.

Agreed 're psychological (political?) tendencies. And of course the US and UK allied with Stalin. But I don't believe there was a difference in scope between Hitler and Stalin.

 

[Crazymechanic]

it wasn't about scope back then , it was about reason.Hitler had the " wrong" one, Stalin had the " right" one. +Everything went so that it will always look like germany took the USSR by surprise and invaded a sovereign country so Stalin had every reason top do whatever was needed along with some mass genocides and other stuff along the way.

otherwise if they wouldn't be resttriced by their ideologies and countries , I do believe Stalin would have been great friends with Hitler , they both were fans of classical architecture and I must say they both ordered great classical style buildings in their countries to be made.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

speaking about tendencies , I must say many folks here have a overly simplified understanding of what Russia or Putin or the KGb actually is or was ,

Okay, so why don't you tell us what it was? A kindergarten for bear hunting he-men??

I guess the western propoganda has done a great harm in trying to make communist hating patriots out of you guys , because now you have left your critical thinking somewhere behind.

Prepare for big surprise. I consider myself a "left wing maniac", or at least, this is what I am in a "U.S. perspective", or put this way: All Swedes are communists! We pay way to much taxes, to be considered perfectly normal (at least if you ask any GOP'er).

How about real communism? Well, it was a sweet dream of "ultimate solidarity" that sadly got kidnapped by megalomaniac mass murders and now it is dead. There's nothing we can do about that.

But besides a "semi-communist", I'm also pragmatic, and I definitely prefer a crappy Big Mac over a shaky Kalashnikov in my face. No doubt about that.

Communism and Capitalism is old, very old, and personally I think it's maybe time for something "newer & fresher”, much of the old stuff is beginning catch some peculiar 'odor'...

I wonder if a global law prohibiting (megalomaniac) men to be in any political top position could be the solution... too much testosterone is the root of all evil? Maybe we should let the women have a go at it, for once in history?? I dunno...

All the respect Devils Avocado but I think your opinion on Putin is quite honestly naive at best. Think baout it for a while , all these pro guys that were with him back in the KGB times and more of them backing him now , do you think their all fools ,

Absolutely not, but they are all* running the same Russian calculator from 1945, and this – in our perspective – makes them all a bunch of "Cold War" nostalgic fools.

*Note: Most definitely there are very smart Russian politicians/advisers who do know that the latest move by Putin is not the smartest, but you (and your family) have to have a pretty good life insurance to ventilate this kind of opinion in current Russian 'climate' – they just have look out through the window to see what happens to protesters against the Crimean invasion. It's called peer pressure, aka "management by fear", and my guess is that Sergey Lavrov could tell you a lot more about this right now... if you don't believe me, check out German history.

do you think he literally runs the country on his own ,

No, and this is what hopefully going to save us all in the end. As everywhere else, people with money ultimately run the business (i.e. not the ones running in the Kremlin corridors, they are just like any other dysfunctional member of Congress), and once the OAO Moskovskaya Birzha is starting to drop shockingly and the oligarchs can no longer go to Cannes, Paris or L.A. to party, you will see some 'bizarre' activities in Crimea. Trust me.

Now don't tell me you fell for his argument that there are no troops from Russia and then you thought that instead of lying to your face while smiling he was just nuts?

So you are saying that in a situation that could ultimately end in a global nuclear war, that would ruin this planet and put an end to humanity, this guy is running "practical jokes" on the telly?

How about Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov? Is he joking too?? He looked like he just came from his mother's funeral... no smile in this part of the universe... (I can guess why, he had no choice but to confirm previous "practical joke" and then he got struck by a more 'sophisticated brain pain').

But mayeb he wants you to think that he is nuts , just like a criminal wants you to think that the other guy did it ?

I'm not saying he's nuts, that was Albright & Merkel. But he has broken international laws and treaties, so "criminal" seems fair indeed.

Quite hoenstly I am really amazed at the kindergarden level discussion that is going on here ,

No worries mate! We're all just a bunch of amateurs ventilating our contemporary global angst.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

otherwise if they wouldn't be resttriced by their ideologies and countries , I do believe Stalin would have been great friends with Hitler , they both were fans of classical architecture and I must say they both ordered great classical style buildings in their countries to be made.

Please tell me this is a joke, right?

 

[mheslep]

...germany took the USSR by surprise and invaded a sovereign country so ...

Stalin first invaded sovereign countries by surprise, Poland and Finland.

 

[lisab]

Please, let's not get into a Stalin vs Hitler quagmire.

 

[DennisN]

Please, let's not get into a Stalin vs Hitler quagmire.

I agree: Mitchell and Webb - Stalin Vs Hitler (arguing the moral toss)

 

[Czcibor]

speaking about tendencies , I must say many folks here have a overly simplified understanding of what Russia or Putin or the KGb actually is or was , I guess the western propoganda has done a great harm in trying to make communist hating patriots out of you guys , because now you have left your critical thinking somewhere behind.

All the respect Devils Avocado but I think your opinion on Putin is quite honestly naive at best.
Think baout it for a while , all these pro guys that were with him back in the KGB times and more of them backing him now , do you think their all fools , do you think he literally runs the country on his own , don;'t you think there are like a ton of poeple walking the Kremlin corridors making up plans and advising him on any matter ,
Now don't tell me you fell for his argument that there are no troops from Russia and then you thought that instead of lying to your face while smiling he was just nuts?
But mayeb he wants you to think that he is nuts , just like a criminal wants you to think that the other guy did it ?

Quite hoenstly I am really amazed at the kindergarden level discussion that is going on here , I mean I'm not a physics genius and have been pointed wrong here many times and I accept that from people who are smarter and more experienced than me in this field but I thought they would be smarter at politics looks like I was wrong.

To be honest: maybe you are the naive one here who unrealistically assume that political decisions are being made according to the best calculation provided by best experts? (Strong efficient markets hypothesis moved to political science :D ) Instead of being also mixture of fear, pride, internal interests of people within organization, maintaining legitimacy for internal politics purposes and schematic thinking?

Face it: from purely rational perspective of Russian state, Sochi Olympics was not worth 50 bln $ for its image. (Maybe it was worth as chance for high level corruption and showing off for internal purposes)

Actually, if you mention that "kindergarten level", in such high rationality of decision making (but more in business context) I believed during my kindergarten and primary school.

 

[Borek]

Get back on topic or the thread will be locked.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

It looks like Crazymechanic has moved permanently to 'Russia'... :) I just wanted to say this, hope it is okay?

That calculator they have is not from 1945 trust me on that one.
I can tell you a hint for this.After the USSR broke , the first most influential and also successful business man were no others than the same people who worked for the KGB before.

If the calculator is from 1945, 1961 or 1968 doesn't matter that much, because it is broken in exactly the same way; i.e. "capytalism" usually do not work that well if you are threatening or indicating that you are ready, willing & able to wage war against your dear and crucial customers, that for the moment provide 53% of your earnings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xneZp5Ycm24
http://www.youtube.com/embed/xneZp5Ycm24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlrEGqGACSk
http://www.youtube.com/embed/nlrEGqGACSk

 

[DevilsAvocado]

To be honest: maybe you are the naive one here who unrealistically assume that political decisions are being made according to the best calculation provided by best experts? (Strong efficient markets hypothesis moved to political science :D ) Instead of being also mixture of fear, pride, internal interests of people within organization, maintaining legitimacy for internal politics purposes and schematic thinking?

Thanks Czcibor, very good point. :thumbs:

 

[Czcibor]

Concerning Putin's logic:

According to the pool in last months thanks to both Sochi Olympics and invasion on Crimean, Putin's approval rating rose by 10 percentage points. It makes sense from this perspective.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Concerning Putin's logic:

According to the pool in last months thanks to both Sochi Olympics and invasion on Crimean, Putin's approval rating rose by 10 percentage points. It makes sense from this perspective.

Well... ehh uhm... Putin & Co has studied the first paragraph in the "Megalomaniac Dictatorship Handbook", which state:

Hurry! Acquire an external "cruel enemy" (preferably 'Nazis', if you are not one yourself) that you can blame for all that is wrong in your country! Then you will become a National Hero and Saint!​

And if you control all media 100% the pools will of course be more 'favorable'...

But, this is only the first few "Days of Glory", because now the ruble has started to wobble, and the MICEX Index is on its lowest in four years, and things hasn't even started to get rough for Putin.

And on top of this, today (Saturday) 50,000 Russian protesters rallied in Moscow against Crimea action!

Protesters carry Ukrainian and Russian flags in Moscow, on March 15, 2014, during a rally against Russia's recent intervention in Crimea (AFP Photo/Dmitry Serebryakov)

Russian punk band kitty Riot members Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova attended the anti-war rally in Moscow, ahead of a referendum on Crimea.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/world/article/50000-protest-crimea-action-in-moscow
Marchers carried placards reading "Putin, get out of Ukraine" and others comparing Russia's move on Crimea with the Nazi annexation of the Sudetenland as Europe rushed headlong into World War II.

Here's also a short video.


Putin, get out of Ukraine! :thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:

 

[DennisN]

It seems it is a really delicate moment right now;

Russia vetoed a UN security council motion declaring the Crimea referendum invalid.

China abstained, 13 others voted in favour.

Ukraine says it repelled a detachment of Russian troops in southern Ukraine, north of Crimea.

Russian foreign ministry says it is considering the requests of Russian speaking Ukrainians for Russian protection from persecution.

France says next stage of sanctions against Russia will be on military co-operation.

4.10pm GMT

Russia said Saturday it was reviewing “many requests” for protection from people in Ukraine, reports AFP.

Source:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/ukraine-crisis-fatal-clashes-as-tensions-rise-before-crimea-vote-live

 

[OmCheeto]

...

...

putin, get out of ukraine! :thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:

за россию и украину (za roseeoo ee ookraeenoo = in russia and ukraine)
без путина (vez pooteena = without putin)

My Russian is really bad.

Does that not say; "Get Putin out of the Ukraine and Russia" ?

 

[Czcibor]

за россию и украину (za rosea ee ookraeenoo = in russia and ukraine)
без путина (vez pooteena = without putin)

My Russian is really bad.

Does that not say; "Get Putin out of the Ukraine and Russia" ?

I don't feel too confident (I have been learning it many years ago) about my Russian, but I'd rather translate it as "For Russia and Ukraine without Putin".

Yeah for sure they mean both countries without Putin.

EDIT: Anyway, there are presumably 3 areas (except Caucasus) where opposition is strong - Moscow, Petersburg (both big cosmopolitan and well educated cities) and Kaliningrad (inhabitants got demoralized while making big shopping every few months in the EU, usually in Gdańsk).

 

[OmCheeto]

I don't feel too confident (I have been learning it many years ago) about my Russian, but I'd rather translate it as "For Russia and Ukraine without Putin".

Yeah for sure they mean both countries without Putin.

My aunt, on my father's side, joined a society once, called the "Germans from Russia". It is an American genealogical club.

In 1985, I studied the Russian language at university, as a foreign language was required. I'd already studied the German language for 4 years in high School, as my mother was from Germany/Poland(ask Borek).

Anyways, to make a long story short:

Some of my ancestors were from the suburbs of Odessa*, which is in the Ukraine.
I studied the wrong language, apparently.
But when my Russian friends first saw me, about 5 years ago, one of them said to the other; "He looks Ukrainian".

I thought I was a German from Russia, but now I'm Ukrainian?

I've only met one Ukrainian. He looks just like my brother, and thinks just like me.

ergo...

-------------------------
*I know this, as my mother translated, and I transcribed, letters, saved by my aunt, postmarked from Odessa, back in 1986.

ps. Tack for the translation the other day.

 

[Borek]

For Russia and Ukraine, no doubt about it.

That's from someone who read "Преступлéние и наказáние" last summer, just to make sure he is still able to read Russian.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

It seems it is a really delicate moment right now;

Yes, 'delicate' indeed...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/15/ukraine-crisis-repel-idUSL3N0MC0BW20140315

"The border guard service said Ukrainian forces had taken up defensive positions on Arbatskaya Strelka, running parallel to the east of Crimea, now controlled by Russian forces. It said about 60 Russian troops had landed on the strip and begun digging in, assisted by three armoured personnel carriers.

Six Russian helicopters arrived with 60 more servicemen about two hours later outside the village of Strelkovoye. The border guard service said talks between the two sides established that the Russian servicemen were "guarding against possible terrorist acts" against a gas pumping station."​

theguardian.com – Ukraine's president fears Russia could invade after Crimea referendum

"Acting leader claims Kremlin is behind turmoil in eastern Ukraine and there is 'real danger' Moscow could seize more territory"

If Putin manage to run this mess into 'worst scenario'... will there be a new political term then?

KAPUTTINISM

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Does that not say; "Get Putin out of the Ukraine and Russia" ?

Jag vet ingenting!

... but I hope you're right ...


P.S: Isn't it 'strange' that CNN International has not mentioned one word about this... they keep on mangle the lost plane... is it the same in the domestic version?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

"For Russia and Ukraine without Putin".

For Russia and Ukraine, no doubt about it.

Wow! Yes!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

That's from someone who read "Преступлéние и наказáние" last summer, just to make sure he is still able to read Russian.

That's a good one, they say Obama is reading another classic right now... Crimea and Punishment...

()

 

[lendav_rott]

Crimea and Punishment? :D :D:

 

[m k]

Get back on topic or the thread will be locked.

PC now?

 

[DennisN]

Crimea and Punishment

Ukraine, Russia agree Crimea truce until March 21 (Reuters);

(Reuters) - The defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a truce in Crimea until March 21, Ukraine's acting defense minister said on Sunday.

"An agreement has been reached with (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Defense Ministry on a truce in Crimea until March 21," Ihor Tenyukh told journalists on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting.

"No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea during that time. Our military sites are therefore proceeding with a replenishment of reserves."

(Reporting by Natalya Zinets, Writing by Ron Popeski; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/16/us-ukraine-crisis-truce-idUSBREA2F0DP20140316

 

[OmCheeto]

Well this is interesting.

Ukraine crisis: Early results show Crimea votes to join Russia

Perevalnoye, Ukraine (CNN) -- Preliminary results in Sunday's referendum on whether Ukraine's Crimea region should join Russia or become an independent state overwhelmingly show support for Russia.

With 50% percent of the ballots counted, more than 95% of voters want to become part of that country, according to Crimean Electoral Commission head Mikhail Malyshev.

95%.
Wow.
I wonder why they voted that way?

http://www.cnn.com/video/api/embed.html#/video/world/2014/03/15/bts-crimean-voices.cnn

I wonder what that would be like in America? Would it be like Northern California wanting to join with Oregon? Or would it be like Laredo* Texas wanting to join Mexico?

It has been my experience that language plays a big role in how people identify themselves. The letters that my mother translated were all written in German, though they originated from the Ukraine.

Here's an interesting map from the Crimea State Medical University:

http://www.csmuedu.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/300px-RussianUseEn.png​

But that's kind of a silly thought. Using that logic, one would assume that all of the Québécois would want to secede from Canada.

*Per Wiki, Laredo Texas is 95.6% Hispanic or Latino, and borders Mexico. Not that I think they would want to secede.

 

[gfd43tg]

I am confused about the whole situation. Some political turmoil occurs in Ukraine...then Russia takes the opportunity to come into the country and set up a poll to allow the people to vote to secede from the Ukraine?

How did politics in Ukraine equate to Russia trying to gain more territory??

 

[russ_watters]

I am confused about the whole situation. Some political turmoil occurs in Ukraine...then Russia takes the opportunity to come into the country and set up a poll to allow the people to vote to secede from the Ukraine?

How did politics in Ukraine equate to Russia trying to gain more territory??

The opportunity presented itself.

 

[gfd43tg]

So, obviously before the cold war was over, that land was part of the Soviet Union. So the Russians just want to take back what was previously theirs.

This sounds like the issue with Israel/Palestine fighting over who deserves the land.

 

[Czcibor]

Well this is interesting.



95%.
Wow.
I wonder why they voted that way?

Because Putin is destined to lose no elections or referendum when he supervises it?

Anyway, I consider Putin's outcome as mediocre. Referendum in Austria about their annexation in 1938 got 99,73% for "YES".

http://www.csmuedu.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/300px-RussianUseEn.png​

Which is somewhat misleading because people who consider themselves as Ukrainians and Tatars are counted as Russians because of language.

A more realistic would be a census from 2001:

[PLAIN]http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/20140301_FBM909_1.png[/CENTER]​