Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[DennisN]

This crisis is still a complicated issue, and it seems far from over . The most distressing issue right now seems to be why all those Russian troops are still kept close to the Ukrainian border.

Russia's buildup near Ukraine may reach 40,000 troops: U.S. sources

Russia's reinforcement of troops near Ukraine has brought the total forces there to as many as 40,000, U.S. officials estimated on Friday, as the United States voiced anxiety over the buildup and called on Moscow to pull back its military.
[...]
Putin has reserved the right to send troops into Ukraine, the eastern part of which is home to a large population of Russian-speakers. On Friday, he said Russia's takeover of Crimea showed off its military prowess.

"The recent events in Crimea were a serious test," Putin was shown saying on state television. "They demonstrated both the completely new capabilities of our Armed Forces and the high morale of the personnel."

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-military-idUSBREA2R1U720140328


Russia sees no need for Ukraine incursion, Tatars seek autonomy

"We have absolutely no intention of - or interest in - crossing Ukraine's borders," Lavrov said. Putin called U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday to discuss a U.S. diplomatic proposal, with the West alarmed at the threat to Ukraine's eastern flank from what U.S. officials say may be more than 40,000 Russian troops.

But Lavrov said Russia is ready to protect the rights of Russian speakers, referring to what Moscow sees as threats to the lives of compatriots in eastern Ukraine since Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovich was deposed as president in February.

[...]

TATARS DEMAND AUTONOMY

In the Tatars historic capital of Bakhchisaray, the assembly representing the 300,000-strong indigenous Muslim minority voted in favour of seeking "ethnic and territorial autonomy" in Crimea. They make up less than 15 percent of Crimea's population of 2 million and have been overwhelmingly opposed to Russia's annexation of the territory. Crimean Tatars' assembly leader Refat Chubarov told more than 200 delegates: "In the life of every nation there comes a time when it must make decisions that will determine its future."

"I ask you to approve...the start of political and legal procedures aimed at creating ethnic and territorial autonomy of the Crimean Tatars of their historic territory of Crimea."

The assembly subsequently backed his proposal. Critical of Russia's annexation of Crimea, the Tatars boycotted the March 16 vote to split from Ukraine and become part of Russia.

Moscow has tried to pressure them to drop their opposition. However, their proposal to seek autonomy signals they would be ready to negotiate their status with Russia.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/29/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2S0K020140329

Exclusive: Russia threatened countries ahead of UN vote on Ukraine - envoys

According to interviews with U.N. diplomats, most of whom preferred to speak on condition of anonymity for fear of angering Moscow, the targets of Russian threats included Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well as a number of African countries.

A spokesman for Russia's Mission to the U.N. denied that Moscow threatened any country with retaliation if it supported the resolution, saying: "We never threaten anyone. We just explain the situation."

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/us-ukraine-crisis-un-idUSBREA2R20O20140328

 

[DennisN]

Anyhow, maybe it's a good sign that Putin wants all Russians to be "tough like Steven Seagal" as we all know; Seagal is a chunky worn-out B actor with too much Russian oil in the hair, which seems not to have improved intellectual capabilities noticeably.

I remember having been confused by something regarding Steven Seagal before, but I can't remember what it was (I think it was some geopolitics, IIRC). He sure seems to be a mysterious guy :

EDIT: But, when I come to think of it, maybe it's not so surprising that he bromances with Putin. They're both playing tough, and they both like martial arts...

 

[OmCheeto]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl8rgWUgmR8
http://www.youtube.com/embed/nl8rgWUgmR8

I've watched this video 4 times.

Mr. Seagal seems to share my views.

And he can pronounce "Ukraine" properly.

 

[OmCheeto]

I've watched this video 4 times.

Mr. Seagal seems to share my views.

And he can pronounce "Ukraine" properly.

I watched it again this morning. I still can't believe I am in agreement with him.
So that video aired March 9th, and on March 28th, Putin called Obama:

(CNN) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin phoned his U.S. counterpart, Barack Obama, on Friday to discuss the tenuous situation in Ukraine -- the latest exchange between two leaders who have been at loggerheads about what's happened and what should happen next.

According to the White House, Putin called to talk about an American proposal "for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis" and the two presidents agreed that their respective top diplomats "would meet to discuss next steps."

To my knowledge, I have never watched one of Seagal's marshall arts meathead movies*, but I can imagine him sitting across from Putin, with that dead pan stare, and telling him; "Vlad, call Mr. Obama. Resolve this diplomatically, or I will karate chop your head off".

So who is this meathead?

[on what he thinks are the most important lessons that one should strive to live by in Aikido] Try to find the path of least resistance and use it without harming others. Live with integrity and morality, not only with people but with all beings.

Seagal is a guitarist, recording artist, and the founder of Steven Seagal Enterprises. In addition to his professional achievements, he is also known as an environmentalist, an animal rights activist, and a supporter of the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso.

Frontline: And did you think that you find the days when someone like yourself-- many people here in Los Angeles and Hollywood-- would be joining the same issue with Jesse Helms?

Seagal: My agenda has no politics. It has no economy. You see. It goes even beyond religion which is also big business and goes into simple human kindness and the way we're supposed to treat each other as human beings.

Frontline: The Dalai Lama has been received here often with open arms, tell me about the place he has in our view of Tibet. Is he the face of Tibet now for us?

Seagal: Well one of the dilemmas is that he's the spiritual leader of Tibet and Tibetan Buddhism. Therefore, in many people's minds he should be not be a politician, he should be a monk, a simple monk and a spiritual leader. On the same token, this monk has to meet with other political leaders and great economic forces and struggle between two worlds and he has to walk across that bridge between the sacred and the profane and deal with both in the same day, sometimes even the same minute. And that is not easy. To me the Dalai Lama is my teacher, he's a spiritual teacher, to me he's not a political advisor. Or a statesman, he's a leader of state, not a statesman.

ca. Oct. 28, 1997 ?

My apologies to Mr. Seagal. IMHO, he is not a meathead.

*I just went through his IMDb listing. I have never seen one of his movies.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

What's next, and audience with ambassador Dennis Rodman? This is near lunatic behavior if sincere. I hope it is part of some lark or propaganda ploy: "hey look, I'm a little crazy, better not provoke me with sanctions"

Yup, diplomacy in a nutty shell... quite unfair if Seagal doesn't get a role as b-background actor in the upcoming movie http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/dennis-rodmans-north-korea-visit-inspires-comedy-movie-diplomats-20140224... performing wacky hand gestures... accompanied by the staring-goat-look.

Seriously, I don't know what to make of this, I'm in a 'superposition' of ... and analysis like Masha Gessen's doesn't make things calmer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QedpnfQYrrI
http://www.youtube.com/embed/QedpnfQYrrI

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Steven Frederic Seagal, and Dennis Keith Rodman, all walk into a bar...

Pleazeeee Om give us The Finale! :)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

This crisis is still a complicated issue, and it seems far from over . The most distressing issue right now seems to be why all those Russian troops are still kept close to the Ukrainian border.

Russia's buildup near Ukraine may reach 40,000 troops: U.S. sources

Russia sees no need for Ukraine incursion, Tatars seek autonomy

Exclusive: Russia threatened countries ahead of UN vote on Ukraine - envoys

Yes, totally conflicting and confusing signals...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

lol

 

[Borek]

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, Steven Frederic Seagal, and Dennis Keith Rodman

OT: technically that's incorrect.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin means Vladimir Putin, son of Vladimir (Vladimirovich being a patronymic). To be consistent you should list two others as Steven Samuelovitch Seagal, and Rodman as Dennis Philanderovitch (or Philandrovitch?) Rodman.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

So who is this meathead?

Well, for a man who talks about "not harming others" and "simple human kindness" and "treat each other as human beings", he sure has a funny way of making his living ...

Just as Putin - conflicting and confusing signals!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin means Vladimir Putin, son of Vladimir (Vladimirovich being a patronymic). To be consistent you should list two others as Steven Samuelovitch Seagal, and Rodman as Dennis Philanderovitch (or Philandrovitch?) Rodman.

Done! Philanderovitch & Samuelovitch will have the leading parts in the upcoming http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/dennis-rodmans-north-korea-visit-inspires-comedy-movie-diplomats-20140224!

PS: Could this work? Vladimir Putin, Son of a gun ...

 

[Dotini]

Just as Putin - conflicting and confusing signals!

Excellent observation! But to clarify, is it Putin who is confused - or the rest of us?

I am going to take the view that, like a chess player, he is executing a plan in the form of a combination of moves, trying to stay a step or two ahead of his opponent. But the game he is playing is not chess, but realpolitik. The basis of his game is pragmatism, and the forbidden truth that might makes right. By contrast, the West is attempting to play a game which wraps itself in the banners of democracy, human rights and morality, i.e., ideology as opposed to pragmatism. This is analogous to why some people characterize Obama as playing marbles while Putin plays chess. It's an interesting conflict of worldviews, and a problem which hopefully works itself out in the realm of diplomacy in lieu of military conflict.

 

[russ_watters]

In games of 19th century militiristic imperialist vs 20th century pacifist diplomat, has the 20th century pacifist diplomat ever won?

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I am going to take the view that, like a chess player, he is executing a plan in the form of a combination of moves, trying to stay a step or two ahead of his opponent. But the game he is playing is not chess, but realpolitik. The basis of his game is pragmatism, and the forbidden truth that might makes right.

This is probably a correct analysis – with the Red Square Goggles on.

From this "mammoth perspective"; it's absolutely clear that masked thugs with tanks always win over intellectuals with briefcases, a no-brainer.

However, "The Mammoth" is underestimating (or missing) one piece on his chessboard – the 21st century Financial Queen. The message is that they are not afraid of financial sanctions, but Putin is an old KGB agent, interested in martial art and big fat out-of-date foreign actors; not derivatives, stocks and bonds... surely there are advisors around the him that do master these things (of course), but it looks like he only wants news that makes him happy, and he doesn't use internet, and is only watching his own corrupt news channel – listening to his own messages (and this has been going on for 15 years).

A lot can go wrong in this kind of deep-frozen "Mammoth Information Bubble"...

And it already has; in the first 3 months there has been a $70 billion outflow, with an estimated $150 billion outflow this year (i.e. exceeding the record high $120 billion in 2008) in an 'optimistic' prognosis by former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin* saying; "It's sort of payment for independent foreign policy".

Of course this is only the beginning, if Russia does continue on the "Realpolitik Highway" and invade Ukraine – the Russian economy will implode in couple of weeks – any investors that do use internet or watch other news channels than Putin's, will get out of there ASAP.

There is no "Mammoth Information Bubble" that could withstand this kind of financial core meltdown.

And here is where things get scary... either Putin and his advisors has taken this scenario into account, and are indeed planning for a war that will include most/all of Europe (=complete madness XL), that they are sure they will win (=complete madness XXL), and that they will get 'their money' back in the end (=complete madness XXXL).

Or, they have absolutely no idea what to do now, and hope Putin knows what he's doing, while Putin himself is dreaming about brave massive tank battlefields, à la Battle of Stalingrad, and his Russian judo kids saving the depraved "Gayrope".

It looks like Putin has set up the "Mammoth Chessboard" to either destroy the Russian economy, or large parts of the civilized world...

Let's truly hope I'm completely wrong, and that all this will take a completely new and civilized turn, to avoid the return of dysfunctional mammoths and counterproductive 19th century chessboards.


*Hey! That's a very cheap "independent foreign policy" – on my simple calculator I get $70 billion x 4 = $280 billion outflow this year, and you will be closer to insensate than independent before New Year's Eve! >:|

 

[lisab]

In games of 19th century militiristic imperialist vs 20th century pacifist diplomat, has the 20th century pacifist diplomat ever won?

Gandhi?

For pacifists, the trick to winning a conflict using pacifist strategies is: choose your enemy wisely.

 

[russ_watters]

Gandhi?

Did Gandhi defeat England or did the war-weary Empire just decide to pack up and go home?

For pacifists, the trick to winning a conflict using pacifist strategies is: choose your enemy wisely.

Indeed. You need to make sure you are following them closely enough to make it look like you are chasing them when they leave!

 

[mheslep]

I'm curious as to what action PF Eastern European members think should be taken by their local governments. "Wait and see" might be appropriate on the other side of an ocean or two, but I don't think such is the lesson of history if one lives somewhere between the Baltic and Black Seas. More defense spending? Less? Regional alliances?

 

[Borek]

I'm curious as to what action PF Eastern European members think should be taken by their local governments. "Wait and see" might be appropriate on the other side of an ocean or two, but I don't think such is the lesson of history if one lives somewhere between the Baltic and Black Seas. More defense spending? Less? Regional alliances?

NATO seems to be the only chance.

Assuming it will really execute Article 5.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I'm curious as to what action PF Eastern European members think should be taken by their local governments.

I've been wondering the same thing for some time now, but wasn't sure if it's considered 'inappropriate' to make this kind of 'personal' inquiries... (thanks)

"Wait and see" might be appropriate on the other side of an ocean or two, but I don't think such is the lesson of history if one lives somewhere between the Baltic and Black Seas. More defense spending? Less? Regional alliances?

If this goes insanely wrong; there will not be much "waiting" before a major part of the planet will be involved in one way or another... of course the Baltic--Black Sea region will get the first major blow...

NATO seems to be the only chance.

Assuming it will really execute Article 5.

Borek, I'm impressed that you can stay so calm about all this... I'm going bananas in this thread and my little country is probably not the main target for Putin... (unless he wants to knock out Carl Bildt for "old quarrels")

I think there's no question that NATO will act in case of a member being attacked, but this scenario is so insanely absurd, it's closer to madcap surrealism than anything else...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btCvj_qaAXc
http://www.youtube.com/embed/btCvj_qaAXc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksnc65wBNow
http://www.youtube.com/embed/ksnc65wBNow

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-pm-medvedev-visits-crimea-reports-075219445.html

 

[mheslep]

NATO seems to be the only chance.

Assuming it will really execute Article 5.

HuffPo poll:
Should the US use military force if Russia attacks any of the countries listed below:
Poland: Yes, 40%. No, 32%

 

[DevilsAvocado]

[been thinking some more]

is it Putin who is confused - or the rest of us?

Of course it's Putin who is totally and utterly confused – albeit inside his limited bubble of "yes-men-information" – it might look like he's in total control.

Motivation:
No matter how this turns out and what happens in reality – Putin is digging his own political grave.

Possible Cases:

• I) Nothing more happens regarding Russian military invasions/war, and Ukraine gets a democratic elected President and starts rebuilding the country.
  
  
• II) Russia invades Ukraine and deploys a pro-Russian-Puppet as President, who starts destroying the country even more (if possible).
  
  
• III) Same as case II + Russian invasion other countries in need of "Putin's brilliant assistance", which ultimately will lead to global nuclear war and the end of everything.

Consequences:
Case I & II; Putin has destroyed the fundaments for Russian economics. The country is dependent on one commodity alone, but after global exposure of the "trigger-happy-invasion-commercial", nobody wants to be dependent on Putin for crucial energy (except maybe Kim Jong-un). EU will ASAP get other suppliers and China can't risk being in the hands of a 'borderliner' (border quarrels there as well). No developed country with a working industry, finance, infrastructure, etc, can trust this man again, i.e. there will be no one willing to do business with Putin (on large scales). His only hope is that the stuff become so scarce that his reputation doesn't matter anymore – but long before then he will be overthrown by furious Russians, kicked back (by Putin-in-full-control) to Brezhnev economics.

We can skip case III – everybody understands the status of this kind of utterly deranged tomb...

That's my guess.

 

[mheslep]

...a member being attacked...

Define attacked, because Putin might not make it simple to recognize. Imagine: cut off of resources, force build up and border incursions from Kalingrad-Oblast, infiltrators, all while having some paid western MP stooge to say that it is all paranoia, that NATO is saber rattling, blah, blah.

 

[lisab]

Define attacked, because Putin might not make it simple to recognize. Imagine: cut off of resources, force build up and border incursions from Kalingrad-Oblast, infiltrators, all while having some paid western MP stooge to say that it is all paranoia, that NATO is saber rattling, blah, blah.

I wonder if Germany will re-think phasing out nuclear power.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Define attacked, because Putin might not make it simple to recognize. Imagine: cut off of resources, force build up and border incursions from Kalingrad-Oblast, infiltrators, all while having some paid western MP stooge to say that it is all paranoia, that NATO is saber rattling, blah, blah.

I agree, it's hard to handle masked anonymous thugs with tanks that don't play by "the rules"... more like a biker/mafia war, than an ordinary military conflict...

But I think that Crimea was an exception, it won't be as easy next time. It won't work to have 20,000 anonymous thugs demanding opponents to lay down arms and surrender. It will not work for Putin to play silly "I know nothing!" games this time. We already know he has 40-60,000 troops mobilized at the eastern border of Ukraine. Telling Merkel that he is withdrawing his men, and then 'reallocate' 800 men, won't work either. He should know there's something called satellites.

Of course, he could provoke riots among the Russian diaspora in the Baltic region, but then he has to convince Russians there that it's a good idea to die for Putin, because this is what will happen if a war between NATO and Russia breaks out. I think/hope the majority of Russians is much smarter than this. Many (most?) must have relatives that died in WWII and logically they should not have any desire to repeat this monumental catastrophe.

It's one thing sitting in the sofa zapping and cheering the brave "21th Century Tsar", and a completely different thing when your life is at stake (while everybody understands that there is no real/logical reason for this 'artificial conflict').

I think/hope it will fail and that Putin will be overthrown... sooner than later.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I wonder if Germany will re-think phasing out nuclear power.

They must do something. I can't remember the source (much news lately), but I think it was on the telly they said that Germany/EU has since 2009 been planning for lesser dependency on Russian gas, and that they've built a network of 'hubs' that will allow for EU members to 'reallocate' its resources depending on supply and demand.

After the Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis of 2009 the EU decided that the existing external measures regarding gas supply security should be supplemented by internal provisions for emergency prevention and response, such as enhancing gas storage and network capacity or the development of the technical prerequisites for reverse flow in transit pipelines.

Current/planned Russia-EU pipelines:

That will be supplemented by the Southern Gas Corridor with a capacity to deliver 60 to 120 billion cubic metres per year.

There is also development of an Africa-Europe Energy partnership and the EU-Norway energy dialogue.

 

[Czcibor]

I'm curious as to what action PF Eastern European members think should be taken by their local governments. "Wait and see" might be appropriate on the other side of an ocean or two, but I don't think such is the lesson of history if one lives somewhere between the Baltic and Black Seas. More defense spending? Less? Regional alliances?

Lithuania just voted doubling its tiny military spending. (concerning actual moves)

If get the feeling right:
-Russian behaviour is surprising because of scope but not shocking, they behave in roughly this pattern all the time. (just not all minor hostilities is newsworthy in the USA/western part of the EU)
-We see that we're going to have a standoff with Russians anyway, just the question is whether Ukraine would be occupied already occupied or not.
-We're a bit nervous about very mild reaction of western Europe. (and their perceived willingness to sacrifice someone else to avoid going into conflict)
-Normal idiotic behaviour of our politicians as usual (Kaczyński, biggest opposition party leader just said that he is willing to accept American troops on our soil, but not German)

 

[mheslep]

I wonder if Germany will re-think phasing out nuclear power.

I take it your point is that Germany might consider making nuclear weapons in response to an aggressive Russia? Like Israel, Germany could have zero commercial nuclear power plants and retain the expertise to make a weapon quickly. They have plenty of coal if the only concern is electric power. In any case, the question alone highlights the consequence should serious doubts arise about US military supremacy and a US willingness to use its abilities to support others.

 

[mheslep]

Lithuania just voted doubling its tiny military spending. (concerning actual moves)

...

Interesting. I'm happy to see that. If others follow suit the aggregate could be significant in two ways. First, it (several countries increasing defense spending) might deter a theoretical future Russian military move to the west if expansion was the main Russian motivation. Second, a force buildup changes the Russian (stated) calculation: aggressive behavior on their part leads directly to heavily armed nations on/near its western borders, the outcome Russia ostensibly says it does not want, where as prior to Crimea there were none.

A large caveat may be lie in the nature of pending(?) buildup. Effective military force in the 21st century has to contain some serious offensive component. Hunkering down in the bunker with purely defensive measures, e.g. the Maginot Line, was ineffective a hundred years ago and certainly ineffective today. Those would be defenders must include a way to reach out and hurt Russia as a means of defending themselves. Those kinds of weapons (i.e. missiles) are much more controversial.

 

[lisab]

I take it your point is that Germany might consider making nuclear weapons in response to an aggressive Russia? Like Israel, Germany could have zero commercial nuclear power plants and retain the expertise to make a weapon quickly. They have plenty of coal if the only concern is electric power. In any case, the question alone highlights the consequence should serious doubts arise about US military supremacy and a US willingness to use its abilities to support others.

I see your point about retaining capability for weaponry, but my point was aimed at energy dependence. Nuclear power has never been fully embraced in Germany, but after Fukushima there was public outcry to abandon nuclear energy -- and it was successful. IMO it was a reactionary and short-sighted decision.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_phase-out#Germany

Problem is, that makes Germany more dependent on foreign energy (yes I know they are moving strongly towards renewable sources, but those sources can't supply a thriving economy yet). So if Russia raises gas prices sky-high, essentially cutting off resources as you suggested in post #480, German households might get pretty chilly in coming winters.

This isn't just a German issue - but it brings attention to their decision to phase-out nuclear power.

 

[OmCheeto]

...
This isn't just a German issue -
...

I wonder if this is how WW1, et al, started...

I agree. It's a global issue.

Although a resurgence of imperialism was an underlying cause, the immediate trigger for war was the June 28, 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, by Yugoslav nationalist Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo. This set off a diplomatic crisis when Austria-Hungary delivered an ultimatum to the Kingdom of Serbia, and international alliances formed over the previous decades were invoked. Within weeks, the major powers were at war and the conflict soon spread around the world.

Yay! The craziness of the OLD WORLD, is only 3 months away from being 100 years old.

Happy 100th anniversary everyone!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Lithuania just voted doubling its tiny military spending. (concerning actual moves)

If get the feeling right:
-Russian behaviour is surprising because of scope but not shocking, they behave in roughly this pattern all the time. (just not all minor hostilities is newsworthy in the USA/western part of the EU)

Gosh... have they been hostile all the time since 1991?

-We see that we're going to have a standoff with Russians anyway, just the question is whether Ukraine would be occupied already occupied or not.

You're not alone; this will be the normal position for most as long as Putin and his entourage are still in power (let's hope the "kitty Riot-generation" can take over and change Russia for good).

-We're a bit nervous about very mild reaction of western Europe. (and their perceived willingness to sacrifice someone else to avoid going into conflict)

Maybe there something wrong with my information, but I don't understand this stance of "we-will-save-this-country-but-not-that-one"... I can understand your unease, but other than that, it just doesn't make sense. This is not 1938, when it comes to multilateral and intertwined relations in Europe/EU/EMU/NATO.

For example Sweden's two biggest banks Swedbank & SEB, has over 300 offices and thousands of employees in the Baltic states. I don't have the exact numbers, but it would be a fair guess that if these assets were to "be lost" in a battle with Putin, this would cause Sweden to go bankrupt, and this would without doubt start a "financial fire" in the whole of Scandinavia, which would impact the rest of EU severely (Greece would be a walk in the park in comparison).

Swedbank headquarters in Vilnius

And this is only two banks we're talking about... and what is the rest of EU going to say?

- Where is FM Linas Linkevičius?
- He has been captured by Putin.
- Oh what a pity, should we continue the meeting anyway?
- Of course!​

It doesn't work, does it?

There is no way we can have "a local little war" in EU and let the larger "high-rank" nations continue business as usual. This could never ever work in our times, there will be a "wildfire" of bad things happening, and the whole of EU will be involved in a matter of days, whether we like it or not.

But I can't see this happen (because this would mean Putin and his advisors are truly insane).

-Normal idiotic behaviour of our politicians as usual (Kaczyński, biggest opposition party leader just said that he is willing to accept American troops on our soil, but not German)

Perfectly normal, FM Carl Bildt has pledged to declare war if Putin attacks the Baltic states.
Problem: There is basically only FM Carl Bildt and DM Karin Enström left in our defense, after all the tax cuts... :)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

 

[OmCheeto]

пожалуйста = please

pronounced, "Poжaloosta"

that spider looking "ж" is pronounced like the "s" in "television".

ps. everything here is approximate.

 

[Czcibor]

Gosh... have they been hostile all the time since 1991?

They tried to block Polish accession to NATO (including both diplomatic channels) and (almost for sure) espionage (Afera Olina). When some criminals stole mobile phones of children of Russian embassy staff, same number of Polish diplomats was beaten by so called "unknown perpetrators" in Moscow.

Being deprived of gas by Russian aggressive negotiations with Ukraine or Belarus is a standard event. Introducing informal embargo on some food product happens every year or two. (Last one: a few weeks ago - alleged virus) It lead to quite funny conclusion, that there are Polish food processing companies that fulfil EU standards, American standards... but are not good enough for Russia.

They quite intelligently played our politicians against each other by not giving us back remnants of our crashed presidential plane. (impossible during last 4 years)

Now Polish forums are flooded by paid Russian agitators.

Maybe there something wrong with my information, but I don't understand this stance of "we-will-save-this-country-but-not-that-one"... I can understand your unease, but other than that, it just doesn't make sense. This is not 1938, when it comes to multilateral and intertwined relations in Europe/EU/EMU/NATO.

I saw how Europe was dealing with Yugoslavia crisis. I saw how big problems were to send on French request some units to Mali and CAR. I saw stats in Germany concerning popularity of NATO. I saw how hard it was to implement any sanction first against Yanukovych and his friends, and now against Putin.

Problems:
-I'm quite nervous about reaction of more pacifistic societies in case of their politicians following game theory and making credible threats (by credible threat I would consider sending some not negligible amount of troops to threatened countries for "joint exercise")
-I'm nervous about coordination and willingness of not directly endangered countries to deploy more than moral support because coffins sent back home does not look good for sensitive societies.

(Actually I'm not nervous about trigger happy Americans, but about pacifistic Europe)

Very good argument about economic motivation - but it works two ways, including investments in Russia.
It's more a feeling: there are permanent problems to organize minor sanction/expedition, while there is risk of needing to go big. Maybe when everyone is properly p***** o** and has his economic interests endangered such obstacles are immediately overcome. Quite possible, but this lack of certainty is not something that makes someone happy in a country that borders with Russia.


OmCheeto:
"Poжawoosta"
not "l" but "w"