Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[lisab]

I think one thing we can all agree on is this is a polarizing topic.

Please remember to stay on topic, and be understanding and courteous. If you can't do these things, please reconsider posting.

 

[Czcibor]

Looks like Russian wanted to show Estonians, after Obama visit, that they do not treat western guarantees seriously and to prove their point raided Estonian border and kidnaped one Estonian counter-intelligence officer.

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/35518/

Honestly? Something has to be done about this impunity.

 

[mheslep]

Looks like Russian wanted to show Estonians, after Obama visit, that they do not treat western guarantees seriously and to prove their point raided Estonian border and kidnaped one Estonian counter-intelligence officer.

http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/35518/

Honestly? Something has to be done about this impunity.

I think this event is very important as an illustration. NATO jet fly overs, troop exercises, and visits by the US President in Estonia are not particularly relevant. Putin is not going to roll tanks into Estonia. Should his gaze turn to that way, he'll likely do what he has already done: run convert, guerrilla, and insurgency operations. Personally threaten Baltic politicians and journalists. Wreck elections. The only way to effectively counter is to run operations against Russia, inside Russia. NATO is not going to do that, not with Obama at the head.

 

[lisab]

I think this event is very important as an illustration. NATO jet fly overs, troop exercises, and visits by the US President in Estonia are not particularly relevant. Putin is not going to roll tanks into Estonia. Should his gaze turn to that way, he'll likely do what he has already done: run convert, guerrilla, and insurgency operations. Personally threaten Baltic politicians and journalists. Wreck elections. The only way to effectively counter is to run operations against Russia, inside Russia. NATO is not going to do that, not with Obama at the head.

Or so he wants you to think .

 

[Czcibor]

I think this event is very important as an illustration. NATO jet fly overs, troop exercises, and visits by the US President in Estonia are not particularly relevant. Putin is not going to roll tanks into Estonia. Should his gaze turn to that way, he'll likely do what he has already done: run convert, guerrilla, and insurgency operations. Personally threaten Baltic politicians and journalists. Wreck elections. The only way to effectively counter is to run operations against Russia, inside Russia. NATO is not going to do that, not with Obama at the head.

I'm not above answering with sending paid thugs, for being hit with paid thugs, however Russian are simply better at it. Human life is much more expendable for them and they have proper kingpin at their lead.

If I had to answer I see plenty stuff that can be done, while not being military. I would force them in economic game, where they are simply weak. I'd think about total economic blockade in some areas. For example - banking system, as it was done with Iran. Or just ban any airline connection between civilized world and Russia. Or just Lithuania and Poland should ban any crossing of border, while the West should impose heavy fees on any commercial ship that would sail to a Russian port and would afterwards try to go to Europe. (good luck with transporting stuff to Kaliningrad)

 

[mheslep]

While the western block might embargo Russia and cause some economic damage, I don't think there is the slightest chance of enacting a global economic embargo. See the recent Russian agreement with China, or the fact that not even Ukraine has cut off the Russian gas. Russia is geographically enormous, is a UN Security Council member.

It may be that the best covert operation to run against Russia is to simply contact and support others inside who want to cut loose; quite a threat to country that imagines itself an empire across nine time zones. No need to send thugs with plenty already inside.

 

[Czcibor]

While the western block might embargo Russia and cause some economic damage, I don't think there is the slightest chance of enacting a global economic embargo. See the recent Russian agreement with China, or the fact that not even Ukraine has cut off the Russian gas. Russia is geographically enormous, is a UN Security Council member.

It may be that the best covert operation to run against Russia is to simply contact and support others inside who want to cut loose; quite a threat to country that imagines itself an empire across nine time zones. No need to send thugs with plenty already inside.

Is a UN Security Council member? Good point. Can't they have their US visas cancelled? :D

I'd say that Ukraine haven't cut the gas supplies not to annoy the West.

I'm not sure who exactly you'd like to support. Of course there are Chechens that unsuccesfully fought for their independence (regretably my gov haven't officially recognized them when there was a chance for that), but nowadays they are effectively subdued.

Maybe aid for Belarus/Kazakhstan? Just to undermine whole Euroasiatic Union. Not necessary aid as such, but just an offer to such countries that would have to be overbid by Russia.

Honestly speaking I don't see recent deal with China as a threat. It seems that it was an expensive polical demonstration for Russia, nothing more. Of course China would help them, while demanding high price for that.

We don't need "whole world" support, just the Western sanctions on its own may be quite painful, to show that invasions are quite expensive.

 

[Frank Merton]

It is true, sadly, that embargoes are never fully efficient. In my opinion, however, they should always be tried. They do seem to have some effect in some places.

I see Putin as a step back in Russia's progress, and as such his legacy will end up being that of someone who harmed Russia and the world. When he is gone we can hope the progress will resume.

 

[mheslep]

...

I'd say that Ukraine haven't cut the gas supplies not to annoy the West.

I do not mean the gas traveling *through* Ukraine, I mean Ukrainian local consumption of Russian gas. Ukrainian consumption 53 bcm, domestic production 36%, net imports 64%. At one point early this year Ukraine bought all of its imports from Russia.

I'm not sure who exactly you'd like to support.

Off the top of my head one could go with ethnic groups, e.g. Bashkirs, Chuvashs, Armenians, Avars, Mordvins, Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis, Dargins; or go political, e.g. political opponents of Putin.

Of course there are Chechens that unsuccessfully fought for their independence (regretably my gov haven't officially recognized them when there was a chance for that), but nowadays they are effectively subdued.

Not on my list, nevertheless, see how subdued they remain with western arms and money.

Honestly speaking I don't see recent deal with China as a threat. It seems that it was an expensive political demonstration for Russia, nothing more. Of course China would help them, while demanding high price for that.

Not a threat, but an illustration that some global call for a Russian embargo would go nowhere with the Chinese

We don't need "whole world" support, just the Western sanctions on its own may be quite painful, to show that invasions are quite expensive.

Against even a vaguely democratic, pluralistic society, sure. Against a will to power, a desire to dominate the world structure, not so much. With the latter, watching the limited Russian invasion force be cut to pieces by a Ukrainian army well supplied with western arms might have been viewed as "expensive" to the invaders. Remains to be seen which way Russia falls.

 

[mheslep]

...I see Putin as a step back in Russia's progress, and as such his legacy will end up being that of someone who harmed Russia and the world. When he is gone we can hope the progress will resume.

The US President has made very similar statements along the line of Russia has hurt itself, missed "off ramps", etc. Yet Crimea now hands out Russian passports, and soon apparently so will eastern Ukraine. I don't think the Ukrainians can tolerate any more of Putin doing damage to his legacy.

 

[Frank Merton]

The US President has made very similar statements along the line of Russia has hurt itself, missed "off ramps", etc. Yet Crimea now hands out Russian passports, and soon apparently so will eastern Ukraine. I don't think the Ukrainians can tolerate any more of Putin doing damage to his legacy.

I see your point. I still think long-term Russia is missing out, and not only Putin's legacy but Russia's role in history and of course its economy will suffer more from all this than it might gain in unruly territory.

 

[Czcibor]

I do not mean the gas traveling *through* Ukraine, I mean Ukrainian local consumption of Russian gas. Ukrainian consumption 53 bcm, domestic production 36%, net imports 64%. At one point early this year Ukraine bought all of its imports from Russia.

At that time they had bargain price from the times, when Putin was trying to save his puppet. At this moment they are using the one stored and buying from Slovakia. (not guessing where Slovaks get their ;) )

Off the top of my head one could go with ethnic groups, e.g. Bashkirs, Chuvashs, Armenians, Avars, Mordvins, Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis, Dargins; or go political, e.g. political opponents of Putin.

You need a while to actually build structures of any resistance movement. See Putin's case. He had more time and failed that on Ukraine, and instead had mostly relied on his own troops, just with new insignia.

For arguments sake. Let's assume that you would make a minor insurgency in Caucasus. Would they be left to be slaughtered after the war, as were people who rebelled against Hussein during the desert storm?

Not a threat, but an illustration that some global call for a Russian embargo would go nowhere with the Chinese

Yes, I know that. However Chinese haggling would be the second best thing that you can get after an embargo.

Against even a vaguely democratic, pluralistic society, sure. Against a will to power, a desire to dominate the world structure, not so much. With the latter, watching the limited Russian invasion force be cut to pieces by a Ukrainian army well supplied with western arms might have been viewed as "expensive" to the invaders. Remains to be seen which way Russia falls.

I think also about arming Ukrainians, however their problem is that their country is in a mess. They had relied on poorly trained, volunteer units recruited at Maidan because they operated anyway better than regular army. Some shipments would help, but you would not make an organized, effective army out of them overnight.

Damn, if I knew that the US are seriously backing us, I'd say just to send there some Polish units. (Of course for holidays, but I'd allow them to take their fighter jets)

 

[mheslep]

I see your point. ... Russia ... Putin's... Russia's role in history ...its economy ... it might gain ...

I don't think so. My point of focus is *Ukraine* and similar countries under threat, *not* Russia. I don't care about Putin's legacy. I want Ukraine, the Baltic states and other eastern European and Asian countries on the front page so that they are not forgotten.

 

[Frank Merton]

I don't think so. My point of focus is *Ukraine* and similar countries under threat, *not* Russia. I don't care Putin's legacy. I want Ukraine, the Baltic states and other eastern European and Asian countries on the front page so that they are not forgotten.

I see. We are all in the same world and Ukraine will have to deal with Russia on many issues. What happens in Russia is important, and it think it is useful to try to get them to understand the mistake they are making.

 

[m k]

What military hardware eastern Ukraine make?

 

[Evo]

Off topic posts will be deleted.

 

[Dotini]

Back on topic, a peace is agreed by the Ukraine parliament. Rebels get autonomy and amnesty, while the EU gets a free trade agreement, albeit postponed until 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885#

 

[caveman1917]

Back on topic, a peace is agreed by the Ukraine parliament. Rebels get autonomy and amnesty, while the EU gets a free trade agreement, albeit postponed until 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885#

Strictly speaking a peace proposal, it still has to be accepted by the rebels. I think they stated earlier that any peace deal that required them to give up their weapons and leave themselves open to attack would be unacceptable. The continued shelling of Donetsk city by Ukrainian forces throughout the ceasefire has probably not increased their confidence in laying down their weapons either.

 

[mheslep]

Back on topic, a peace is agreed by the Ukraine parliament. Rebels get autonomy and amnesty, while the EU gets a free trade agreement, albeit postponed until 2016.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29220885#

"Peace" is certainly not the right word. A ceasefire between Russian and western Ukraine may be imminent, but then begins the harassment of those who sympathize with Ukraine and remain in the east. Don't expect much press coverage of their plight.

 

[caveman1917]

"Peace" is certainly not the right word. A ceasefire between Russian and western Ukraine may be imminent, but then begins the harassment of those who sympathize with Ukraine and remain in the east. Don't expect much press coverage of their plight.

As well as the harassment of those who sympathize with the east but remain in the west. Certainly don't expect much press coverage of their plight either, especially since the crackdown on press freedom in the west. Still, if I had to choose between a somewhat autocratic regime and one whose military commanders are openly calling for "a crusade against the Untermenschen", my choice would be clear.

 

[caveman1917]

Certainly the Chinese could use the gas, but I suspect neither do they want to fall into the same major supplier trap (who wrestles bears) as have the Ukranians, Europe.

They haven't. There is no transit country that doesn't pay for its gas and starts siphoning of transit gas when cut off.

 

[mheslep]

They haven't. There is no transit country that doesn't pay for its gas and starts siphoning of transit gas when cut off.

They, which? The Chinese are not dependent on Russian gas. Ukraine is. Much of Europe is. North sea gas is the alternative and is insufficient to replace Russian. There is no other major connection to Europe.

 

[lisab]

Oy.

Y'all need a cooling off period.

 

[lisab]

This is a very important topic, and I really want to discuss it here. However we need to stay on topic. Several posts in this thread have been removed already, so please stay focused.

Also, be aware of the difference between your opinion and facts. If you are stating your opinion, identify it as such.

 

[Czcibor]

In the recent seriously moderate part of discussion there was one interesting fact:
Russia officially demanded (now, after 23 years!) from Lithuania help to prosecute Lithuanians who dodged Soviet draft just after Lithuania declared independence.
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29111188

Russian masses seems to be convinced that everything is the West fault:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2014/09/292014-levada-poll-decline-in-russian.html

It's presumably not a news, but increase in negative attitude concerning Russians was measured a few months ago by Pew Research:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/07/09/russias-global-image-negative-amid-crisis-in-ukraine/

If you want to have fun, you may also see that Russian are convinced that their creeping invasion against Ukraine is actually supposed to improve opinion about them around the world:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08...cession/#few-see-crisis-hurting-russias-image
(there is also a chilling question there in which Russian masses answer whether they think that parts of nearby countries belong to them)

Russia is cutting down amount of gas supplied to the West to stop it from providing Ukraine:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/russia-halves-natural-gas-supplies-to-slovakia-1412177795
(So far they stay within the minimum contracted amount so officially not much can be done about it)To explain the feeling in Poland I'd show recent info concerning a suicide bomb attack in Grozny:
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20141005/193700067/Grozny-Explosion-Kills-5-Injures-12-Interior-Office.html
Comments in Poland (actually in a left-wing leaning newspaper) included in rough translation:
"Terrorist? Shouldn't we rather use Putin's terminology? It was a SEPARATIST"
"I'd even add: heroic insurgent fighting with fascist regime in Moscow... Down with Jewish neo-Vlasnovist"
(If you don't get the joke: in Russian propaganda there is a fascist regime in Kiev. It is being both accused of having oligarchs of Jewish origin (which is even technically speaking correct) and being neo-nazi, Bandera disciples. Vlasnov was a Soviet general that defected to Germans during WW2)
"Little Green Man, but a true one. Under the Green Banner"

 

[Czcibor]

It seems that slide of ruble continues. Seems like outcome of mixture of sanctions and decreasing oil prices, that convinces wealthy Russians to convert their savings into dollars and euro, in quantities that beat their central bank.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ruble-slide-continues-1412922874

Opinion: So far Russian masses don't care at all about such technicalities. However, weak ruble also means serious inflation. So far not enough for them to correctly identify the culprit.

As I've seen a joke on a Polish forum. "Of course Russians trust Putin. But they trust Benjamin Franklin even more."

 

[lisab]

As I've seen a joke on a Polish forum. "Of course Russians trust Putin. But they trust Benjamin Franklin even more."

:D

 

[Nikitin]

hey Czcibor, why so mad and scared? Every part of your post is, literally, sensationalism and exaggerations typical of russophobes. As for the decline in the ruble; it's just how the market players try to reduce risk. When Big Oil decides western politicians have saved enough face, the sanctions will be lifted and the money will start flowing back into Russia just like it did in 2010, 2011,2012 and 2013. Until then true enough there will be problems with inflation, but the weak ruble is also helping the competitiveness of Russian industry.

 

[Czcibor]

hey Czcibor, why so mad and scared? Every part of your post is, literally, sensationalism and exaggerations typical of russophobes. As for the decline in the ruble; it's just how the market players try to reduce risk. When Big Oil decides western politicians have saved enough face, the sanctions will be lifted and the money will start flowing back into Russia just like it did in 2010, 2011,2012 and 2013. Until then true enough there will be problems with inflation, but the weak ruble is also helping the competitiveness of Russian industry.

Nikitin:
So you mean that when Russian mercenaries invade a nearby country your other neighbours shall not be "mad and scared"? (From purely power play politics which reaction would you expect? Are you also one of those Russians who believe that unprovoked invading nearby countries actually should improve their international immage?)

Every part of your post is, literally, sensationalism and exaggerations typical of russophobes.

Instead of making similarly blanket answer: "maybe because I'm too rarely watching Putin's controlled media", I'd ask for clarification, where I exactly exaggerated. Because I used here rather respectable sources: the last one were BBC, Pew Research and WSJ.

Or like sanctions concerning Cuba or Iran. Honestly speaking hard to say. For sure the western part of the EU was for long time giving Russia benefits of the doubt in case of other invasions (Moldova, Georgia, Chechenya). Recent aggression against Ukraine seem to exceed their tolerance threshold (Merkel cancelling contract and informing Putin that she has not time to meet with him), so the situation seem to lack good recent analogy. For sure new situation are unconventional sources of oil and gas which weakens somewhat Russian bargain position.

I really doubt Russian economic ills could be solved by just changing exchange rate (endemic corruption can not be removed this way). If you want to me to help you to use arguments for Putin - presumably such inflation hike actually makes his position not so bad, because he is the person who controls tap with petrodollars which would be worth more among slightly impoverished Russian masses.

 

[voko]

Russian mercenaries invade

You have failed to attach a respectable source to this claim. Try again.

 

[Czcibor]

You have failed to attach a respectable source to this claim. Try again.

Those info were already mentioned in this topic many times. Please pay more attention to that. Anyway, be more precise, which info you still lack and need some good source to finally be informed?

1) Did some "Little Green Men" appeared on East Ukraine, including Crimea?
2) Were they officially wearing Russian uniforms?
3) Were some of them already officially awarded by Putin?
4) Were the weapons that they had (including tanks and artillery) accessible in each Russian survival shop?

 

[voko]

Those info were already mentioned in this topic many times.

False. I hope you are genuinely mistaken, rather than intentionally spreading misinformation.

Anyway, be more precise, which info you still lack and need some good source to finally be informed?

I quoted three words from your previous message. They are in a dire need of a respectable source.

 

[Czcibor]

False. I hope you are genuinely mistaken, rather than intentionally spreading misinformation.

Have you seen here one interesting pattern? I mean the only people on this forum who are convinced that Russia is not doing an unprovoked invasion on Ukraine seem to be... Russians (I mean: you, Nikitin). Moreover you are not facing here disagreement concerning this conflict between Russian nationalists vs. Ukrainian nationalists, but actually facing people from unrelated third countries. How may it happen? Usual explanation involving world encompassing conspiracy, can be as always used when facing any inconvenient piece of information. However, maybe it is somewhat related very low freedom of media in Russia, so gov guarantees that local media show to people that what they should believe?
http://rsf.org/index2014/en-index2014.php

Or maybe as additional contributing factor typical national pride is involved, in which your fatherland by definition can not be guilty of anything?
(In this way you would be in respectable companion, including some Americans still believing in those stockpiles of WMDs in Iraq, Turkish convinced that nothing bad has happened to Armenian during WW1 or Japanese who perceive behaviour of their army towards civilians/POWs much better than the rest of the world)

I quoted three words from your previous message. They are in a dire need of a respectable source.

I asked you 4 question, to check which info you lack. You haven't answered me so I still don't know how I can help you.

Possibly the problem is that when Russia hires some armed guys who are officially not Russian army and sends them to conquer its neighbour you think it is impolite for me to refer them as mercenaries? And I shall use some more politically correct term for them?

 

[voko]

I mean the only people on this forum who are convinced that Russia is not doing an unprovoked invasion on Ukraine seem to be... Russians (I mean: you

Argumentum ad hominem, faulty generalization, and misinformation, all in one sentence. This is becoming a pattern in your messages, Czcibor.

I asked you 4 question, to check which info you lack.

I do not lack any info. It is your claims that lack substance. Asking questions, when asked to provide a source for your claims, is a sure sign of perfidy. Add to that an argumentum ad hominem and misinformation, cited above, and it becomes quite clear that your goal here is not a civilized discussion, but promotion of some very low quality agitprop.

 

[nikkkom]

Forget mercenaries.
Ukrainians captured soldiers from Russian regular army. There are tons of photos and videos, where they say in which regiment they serve. Such as this: